Category: News and Analysis

Wednesday
Three of Emiliano Teodo’s eight fastballs I charted reached triple digits, and an earlier one touched 102 per the board operator. The curve ran 85-87. I’ve seen it referenced as a slider lately, but it looks more curvy to me, and it’s more fun to say he throws a mid-to-upper-eighties curve. In any case, after some early control issues, Teodo (video) snapped off three stellar benders in a row, one swinging, the other two viewed in helpless despair. Teodo does tend to be wild within the zone with the heater sometimes, and even A-level hitters can line it up. Still, the makings of a quality Major Leaguer are there.

Regarding my commentary on Brock Porter earlier this week, it’s worth a reminder that that one outing does not make the man. For example, Teodo was a wreck when I saw him last March: velocity down, already-dubious control even worse, some pitches I couldn’t even categorize. Six months later, he was the talk of the Arizona Fall League, receiving not-totally-facetious discussion of joining Texas’s playoff roster. I love watching these guys, but I’m only getting snapshots.

Lefty Mitch Bratt (video) is a control/command type. The latest Baseball America review listed his fastball at 89-91, but on Wednesday it ran 92-93, augmented by an 83ish slider, upper-70s curve, and an 87 change. Neither the heater nor the slider heater has a ton of movement, but he mixed and spotted both well and missed a few bats with them. I saw two effective changes (called strike, foul tip) and curve (ball, tailed outside). The statcast data doesn’t wow, but he knows how to pitch.

Kyle Larsen. Not a household name. Honestly not a name even to me when I saw the jersey. I originally assumed he was an undrafted free agent, but in fact the righty Larsen (video) was Texas’s 18^th-round pick in 2021, and furthermore, the Rangers delivered $575,000 to his front porch to dissuade him from his Florida commitment. But Larsen has pitched only 2.2 innings across three seasons. I assume Tommy John and maybe more, but I haven’t checked. Larsen offered a 93-94 MPH fastball, a mid-80s slider, and I believe an upper-80s change. He missed several bats with both the fastball and slider. So, we have some understanding of that signing bonus, and hopefully we’ll be seeing much more than 2.2 innings in 2024.

I already reported on Echedry Vargas, but I saw more of him Wednesday (video), and I again liked what I saw. It’s just two days, but his ability to make consistent, firm contact stands out.

Last year, Gleider Figuereo (video) was one of several Rangers hitters who didn’t really build on impressive complex league campaigns from 2022. Possibly, his first full season took a toll, as sometimes happens; he batted .205/.264/.267 during the last three months at Down East last summer. I expect he’ll rejoin the Woodies at least for a little while. He loves to pull and elevate, but contact can be an issue. He singled up the middle and drove a fly to the CF track for a triple yesterday.

Catcher Jesus Lopez hasn’t played much while I’ve been here, or I’ve missed him. I only saw the tail end of his first two plate appearances Wednesday (both swinging strikeouts), after which he lined a single to left. Lopez signed for around $350,000 out of the Dominican Republic in early 2022 and posted a .289/.396/.644 line in 13 complex league games last year.

Signed in 2019 and stateside for the first time last summer, 23-year-old righty Victor Simeon (video) deals a 97-98 fastball and 84 slider. His control is poor; if you watch the video, you’ll see a pitch nail the backstop. When he gets near the plate, opposing batters haven’t much hope.

2022 signing David Davalillo popped up at Down East late in 2023 and fanned seven against zero walks in 4.2 innings. Now 21, Davallilo displayted a 91-94 fastball and a bender that ran 76-83. The slowest ones still looked slidery with plenty of horizontal movement. He didn’t have a good showing Wednesday but has some promise.

I didn’t see enough of 2023 7^th-round pick Julian Brock to form an impression, other than to say he was playing. The catcher was the only of four signed position players from that group not to receive any game action last summer.

At 6’3” and a listed 200 pounds, OF Tommy Specht (2022, 6^th round) isn’t quite hulking but is in the vicinity. At Down East last year as a 19-year-old, he had a 26% strikeout rate (not good but not terrible), a solid 24% line drive rate, a decent fly rate, and he somehow slugged .288. I don’t know what’s to become of him, but he surely has more to offer than that. I didn’t get a great look yesterday but did see a firmly lined single.

Transactions
Texas signed RHP Michael Lorenzen. More later. Have one more game to catch.

Monday
I watched the AA/AAA squads, as the lower levels were at Milwaukee’s complex near central Phoenix, and I wasn’t in the mood for that drive.

Consensus #3 Texas and top-100 overall prospect Sebastian Walcott (video) rewarded me with a stellar day: a single, double, walk, and two steals in five trips to the plate. Both hits were lined to left-center, the double gapping the outfielders and reaching the fence with serious haste. Walcott struck out again against a slider-heavy approach, but he also laid off a few to draw a walk. In addition to the steals, Walcott raced from first to third on an Anthony Gutierrez hit and beat the throw.

Walcott played with the AA group. Note that assignment to a particular team in intersquads doesn’t foretell where the player will be assigned next week. Among Monday’s lineup, only catcher Scott Kapers had significant AA experience, and I expect most of the starting nine to be at a lower level to start the season.  

Walcott shifted to third base in favor of Cam Cauley. 21 as of last month, Cauley (video) smacked a homer to the opposite field. Yes, we’re in Arizona, but he had the necessary oomph regardless. Cauley has much more power than his 5’10”, 170-lb. frame would leave you to believe. He also strikes out nearly a third of the time (and 44% in an admittedly aggressive Arizona Fall League stint), something to watch as he climbs the ladder. Cauley added an infield single. After sharing splitting short and second with Max Acosta in 2022, he spent about 80% of his time at short last year.

CF Anthony Gutierrez (video) grounded up the middle for a single and hit a fly that seemed promising off the bat but didn’t carry. He also snagged a deep fly with his back to the plate.

RHP Skylar Hales (video), 2023 4^th-rounder, very likely Major Leaguer. The stuff will play, certainly. Hales’ fastball ran 96-98 but has touched 100 previously. Irrespective of top speed, it also has serious rise and run. Hales adds a tight slider at 85-86. The delivery is short and funky. With the bases empty, he starts his motion fairly slowly, but then the ball rockets out from just over his right shoulder. In 2023, Hales pitched a handful of innings at the complex and Down East before concluding with two scoreless innings and four strikeouts during High-A Hickory’s playoff series. A concern with someone like Hales is control, and he did walk and hit a batter in two innings, but the results in real games have been stellar so far. He walked or hit only two of 46 batters last year, and 6% of his opponents in his final college season.

Converted outfielder DJ Peters (video) offered a 93-95 fastball with intermittently impressive run and 79-81 slider with well-above-average sweep. In his first attempt at pitching with the Tigers last year, Peters had truly dreadful control, but yesterday’s strike-throwing seemed no worse than adequate.

Pictures from Monday and Tuesday are here.

Tuesday
Echedry Vargas (video) drew an elongated walk to start the low-A contest and added a single and two doubles, one a laser to right, the other a medium grounder just inside the 3B line. The first double would have been a triple had not runner Yeremy Cabrera hesitated on whether the RF would have a chance. Vargas isn’t an imposing specimen but sure swings hard. He led the complex league last year with 11 homers, 27 extra-base hits, and 112 total bases on hits while moving between short, second, and third. Vargas played second yesterday. I didn’t get a good look at his arm. He botched an easy grounder (might have been a slightly bad hop) but otherwise looked very comfortable at the position. He turned 19 last month and I expect will be headed to low-A Down East and earning plenty of coverage from yours truly.

Brock Porter didn’t have a good day. I’ve provided video out of a sense of duty, but you’d be better off spending a minute or two meditating or thinking about what you want for dinner instead. Some individual pitches were dandy, but on the whole he had poor control, leading to a bunch of lengthy, labored duels even when successful. In the 1^st, a hard fly missed being a homer by perhaps two feet, and the next batter was thwarted by LF Edgar Basabe’s catch up against the fence. Porter then walked the next two, and the inning was rolled.* His second and final inning was quicker although marked by another walk. Porter is a promising pitcher but has some days where it’s just not happening, and Tuesday was one.

As a 19-year-old in low-A, OF Yeison Morrobel’s season was nasty, brutish, and short. A shoulder injury ended his campaign in early June, but before then Morrobel (video) somehow slugged only .313 with three extra-base hits, a drastic decline from his rookie season. Best as I can tell, Morrobel decided every day last winter was leg day, arm day, ab day, and everything else day. He’s pretty cut. If he slugs .313 again I’ll eat my Myrtle Beach cap. Morrobel drew a walk the same inning as Vargas off control-averse Seattle prospect Brandyn Garcia (TAMU alum) and later tripled to center.

1B Arturo Disla (video) was born in the Dominican Republic but played college ball at Wayland Baptist in Plainview. Signed as a free agent, Disla returned to the DR to bat .274/.416/.468 in 19 Summer League games. He homered late. Disla is listed at 240 but I have my doubts. He’s also as much a “have bat, will travel” prospect as you’ll find.

IF Max Acosta has two triples in 218 full-season games. He hit two on Tuesday. Honestly, the first stat is the greater surprise, as Acosta has a combination of some pop (11 homers last year) and speed (26 steals) to suggest three-baggers should be more frequent. Acosta has produced two decent seasons at the lower levels, but Cauley has surpassed his prospect status, and whenever they’re on the same squad, I’d expect Cauley to receive a higher proportion of the starts at short.

* For those unfamiliar, in intersquad games coaches have the right to terminate the inning when the pitch count reaches an excessive level, and the yelled phrase is “roll it!” Occasionally, a pitcher will try to get a fourth out of an inning if the first three proceed too quickly, and sometimes a batter hit by a pitch will stay in the box.

Elsewhere
Philly optioned LHP Kolby Allard to AAA. He’d signed a Major League deal with the Phils after Atlanta declined to offer a contract.

Sunday in Surprise
I arrived in Peoria only to discover the two games I’d intended to watch had been moved to Surprise. So I hustled over to Surprise, skipped the media gate because the fan entrance was closer to where I’d parked and… wasn’t allowed in because I had a backpack. So I hustled over to the media gate. Unfortunately, I arrived too late to see more than a moment of Dane Acker.

I didn’t come to Arizona to watch Owen White, because I expect I’ll see plenty of him in Round Rock, but he caught my eye early, and I ended up viewing a good chunk of four innings.

White was an object lesson in not putting too much emphasis on short viewings. If I’d seen only his first two frames or his last two, I’d have very different stories to tell. Early, his stuff was at a level I witnessed rarely during 2023. While the control wavered (a walk per inning, I believe), he missed a bunch of bats. Recall that his swinging strike percentage in AAA was well below average. The fastball was a snappy 94-96 augmented with a high-80s slider and change and an upper-70s curve.

The next two innings were reminiscent of last year’s struggles. The heater dropped to 92-94, and the slider lost a few tics while acquiring some loop, almost like it aspired to become a curve. He walked three and surrendered a homer (admittedly a constant hazard for any pitcher in Arizona).

I did come away mildly heartened that the White of old was still present, if only for a while.

Sebastian Walcott is an amazing athlete who had a bad day, at least what I saw of it. Against M’s righty Jose Geraldo, Walcott took two close pitches for strikes before waving at a slider well outside. In the field, he turned a routine third-out grounder into a run-scoring error with a wide throw to first.

OF Anthony Gutierrez rapped a solid single to left. Grant Schiller of Baseball Prospectus mentioned that Gutierrez had adopted a much more airborne-oriented swing compared to last year, and I can confirm. In 84 games as an 18-year-old in low-A, Gutierrez hit only two homers while producing one of the Carolina League lowest fly rates.

Josh Stephan: 90-93 two and four-seamers, 83-85 slider, change. The repertoire doesn’t impress on paper, but he gets the job done, and did so again on Sunday. Stephen has very good control and wields the slider uncommonly well. Pitchers with one advanced non-fastball can chew up the lower levels, and opponents in high-A batted only .175/.235/.327 with a 32% K rate last year. His promotion to AA was cut short by a back injury, but in 2024 we’ll get a better idea of how he’ll fare against tougher competition.

Venezuelan Ismael Agreda signed with Texas in 2021. Of medium height and maximum slenderness, Agreda nevertheless delivered a short-armed fastball at 97-99, and opposing Mariners had little chance at anything close to the zone. Last year in the complex league, he walked or hit 12% of his opponents, actually much better than average for the level. The control I saw wouldn’t have fared as well, I don’t think. He also mixed in an 83-84 slider with varying success. He’s pretty raw but another name to keep in mind.

21-year-old Alberto Mota pitched well in relief for Down East last year, tallying 41 strikeouts against just ten walks in 25 innings. Sunday didn’t measure to his best outings I saw on MiLB.tv in 2023. He was fairly hittable. Mota was also pitching in an AAA game, which in Arizona in March doesn’t mean a true AAA lineup but still stouter than his usual opposition. The fastball was 95, the curve 82.

Annoyingly, I missed every plate appearance by Abimelec Ortiz save his last, when he managed to pull an outside pitch into short center-right for a single. As a 21-year-old, Ortiz clubbed 36 homers between the A levels and three more in the Fall League. Dustin Harris turned a pitch into a souvenir (or a practice ball, I guess).

Early Monday
Corey Seager took live batting practice. Here’s a photo and quick video. I’m sure the beats will have much more to say. He seemed fine to me. Josh Jung fielded grounders and joined Seager with the bat.

Manpower
I while back, I mentioned the decrease in permitted domestic minor leaguers under contract from 180 to 165. After writing that, I reviewed my (admittedly very unofficial) list and thought the Rangers were in pretty good shape in that regard. What I didn’t know was that optioned players count against the total. I’d assumed anyone on the 40 was exempt, but apparently not. That changes things. Not that I’m going to need 5,000 words on all the upcoming releases, but perhaps more than I anticipated.

Transactions
Last week, Texas claimed IF Jose Barrero off waivers from Cincinnati. Now 25, Barrero registered as high as #33 on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list prior to 2022, but he hasn’t registered at all with the bat. His divergence between AAA and the Majors is extreme as you’ll find: .254/.326/.501 in 180 AAA games, .186/.242/.255 in 139 MLB games. In the Majors vs. AAA, Barrero walks 32% less often, strikes out 18% more, and loses 85 points of average and 349 (!!) points of slugging on contact. Whew.

Barrero is out of options, so he’ll make the club or hit the waiver wire again. Optioned to AAA was Jonathan Ornelas, who I thought might have a shot at a backup job given the situations of Seager and Jung, and he might yet. Texas placed Rule 5 RHP Carson Coleman on the 60-day Injured List to make space for Barrero. Coleman is recovering from elbow surgery.

Detroit released RHP Nick Starr, originally signed by Texas in 2018 after being drafted but unsigned by the Reds. The Tigers had selected Starr in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. (The Rangers don’t have any reversion rights. Starr becomes a free agent.)  

Atlanta signed RHP Tyree Thompson (Texas’s 2016 26^th-rounder). Thompson pitched at both A levels for Atlanta last year.

Toronto signed RHP Evan Elliott, Texas’ 15-thround pick in 2021. Elliot saw all of 15 rookie-league innings across three seasons and was released last June.

Tampa Bay signed RHP Jake Odorizzi to a minor deal.

OF Kole Calhoun retired.

Lowe and Foscue
Per the local reporters, Nathaniel Lowe has an oblique strain.

I haven’t performed a study and I’m not Will Carroll, but in years of covering baseball I’ve come to believe that oblique injuries have the largest gap between hopeful and actual return dates. They just linger. The early prognosis is Lowe might miss Opening Day. I’m just assuming he will.

So, who might play in his stead? One candidate is Ezequiel Duran, who played first twice last season, and, at his best, has the bat to carry any position. Other possibilities include non-40 1Bs Blaine Crim and offseason signing Jared Walsh. Dustin Harris was recently optioned and has been dealing with his own oblique issue. Regardless, I think he’d rank lower on the list of choices.

I want to focus on another possibility, Justin Foscue, because I’d been intending to write about him anyway. Foscue batted .268/.394/.468 in 122 games for AAA Round Rock last year. He hit 31 doubles and 18 homers, and even stole 14 bases. (He’s a slow but astute baserunner.) He turned 25 a few days ago and has a very mature plate approach. Of 245 AAA hitters with at least 300 plate appearances last year, Foscue was one of 11 with more walks than strikeouts. He was in the 92nd percentile in combined walk/HBP rate (18%) and 97th in strikeouts (12%).

So what’s not to like?  Given Foscue’s 563 trips to the plate, an average AAA hitter would have 74 combined walks and HBPs. Foscue had 99, a huge difference. But an average hitter would also have 130 hits, and Foscue had 123. Foscue’s superior approach is translating into more walks and a better OBP, but not better results on contact.

Foscue’s exit velocity is okay. It’s fine at the median but tapers off toward the top. Several Round Rock regulars had a better 90th-percentile EV than Foscue’s 103.2 MPH: Blaine Crim, Sandro Fabian, Elier Hernandez, Sam Huff, Jonathan Ornelas, Yoshi Tsutsugo, and Davis Wendzel.

Foscue also tends to have a lot of vertical “spray” on his contact. Compared to the average Round Rock hitter, Foscue had more grounders and more high flies (at least 45 degrees, almost always an out).

Hitters can succeed without elite exit velocity. A good example is Marcus Semien, who doesn’t hit exceptionally hard but combines fewer strikeouts with a consistent line of attack, allowing him to pile up impressive numbers. I think that is what has yet to fully develop with Foscue. The difference between Semien and Foscue is an extra 35 balls hit at an angle more likely to cause damage.

I’m not suggesting Foscue can’t be a competent MLB hitter. He’s made steady progress every year since being drafted, and hopefully that trend continues. I’m just saying I wasn’t watching him and analyzing his data in 2023 and thinking “he’d be a competent MLB hitter right now.”  Almost, but not quite. Maybe that year is 2024.

Depth
The starting rotation at present is Eovaldi, Gray, Dunning, Heaney, and Bradford. Another possibility is Bradford in long relief and a different fifth starter, but either scenario presents the same conundrum. What’s more likely: this starting five rolling steadily into midseason when some of the injured starters (hopefully) begin to reappear, or needing significant innings from the starting depth because of injuries and/or ineffectiveness? Your first choice to replace one of the top five is… not an easy decision.  

The healthy 40-man choices are Owen White, Cole Winn, and Zak Kent. (Jose Corniell is also on the 40 but premature for this discussion.) Unfortunately, we’re still waiting for one to set himself apart.

White allowed eight runners and three runs in three innings Tuesday, followed by four runs in the 4th against Winn, who did rebound with a clean, three-strikeout 5th. Meanwhile, Kent has surrendered nine runners and six runs in 3.2 innings. Yes, we’re still three weeks from Opening Day, and that isn’t necessarily a deadline for establishing a pecking order, but some clarity would be nice.

As for non-40 choices, Danny Duffy pitched well in Puerto Rico over the winter, perhaps setting himself up for a swing role I was hoping he might fill in 2023. Adrian Sampson was a credible (if statistically somewhat lucky) starter for the Cubs in 2022. The other experienced starter, Jose Urena, had a rough outing on February 24th but threw four solid innings on Thursday.

I imagine Duffy and Sampson lead the pack right now. Jack Leiter is a candidate, and if he makes the Opening Day roster that would be a heck of a story, but realistically I’m more interested in just seeing forward progress.

Good News
In 2023, 16 MLB clubs had MiLB.tv coverage of both of their A-level squads. 13 had coverage of either the high-A or low-A team. And one club had nothing: your Texas Rangers.

That will change in 2024, as Hickory has announced that all home games will be part of the MiLB.tv package. Brian Rushing, who calls a bunch of sports including those at my mother’s alma mater Winthrop University, will call the home games and “select road games.” Hallelujah.

No such announcement was forthcoming for Down East, not a surprise given the team’s lame-duck status. I’m hopeful that coverage will begin in 2025 coinciding with the team’s relocation to Spartanburg.

Subscription Clarifications
To condense from last week’s overly long post: After years of inaction, I have finally created a new subscription list derived from the Newberg Report list. If you’re reading this via email, you’re subscribed.

Jamey Newberg and I now have completely separate subscription lists. He has a list for Substack subscribers and still uses the original Newberg Report listserv for announcing reports. Unsubscribing from me (via the button at the bottom of this email) won’t affect your status with Jamey at all. Likewise, whatever decisions you make regarding Jamey’s site won’t impact you here.

Unfortunately, my “reintroduction” missive from last week reached everyone successfully but  excruciatingly slowly. I am working on the delivery speed, but I’ve learned through tech support that the best delivery speed I can hope for is still longer than desired.  I am probably going to send an email asking you to join a new list (which I expect will result in a significantly smaller list) in order to streamline the operation. But not today.

Incoming
Texas signed 23-year-old free agent COF/1B Luis Mieses. Once a reasonably well-regarded prospect with the White Sox, Mieses backslid terribly at AA Birmingham, batting .236/.257/.356 despite going 6-for-6 with three homers and a double in late June. He’d been out of contract for three months. I’d guess he’ll get another shot at AA if he sticks around.

Elsewhere
IF Elvis Andrus signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks.
RHP Ricky Vanasco was optioned to AAA by the Dodgers. He’d become a minor league free agent over the winter but quickly re-signed an MLB deal.
IF Luisangel Acuna was optioned to AAA by the Mets.

Hector Ortiz
Last week, the Rangers announced the death of Hector Ortiz, who played briefly for the Rangers in 2002 and rejoined in various instructional roles during 2005-2020. Ortiz managed Hickory’s first season as a Texas affiliate in 2009 and the rookie squad in 2011. He also served as a minor league hitting coach and catching coordinator, and as a first base coach and catching coach for the big-league squad.

Voices
Rylan Kobre is the new voice for the Round Rock Express. Kobre had previously called games for the short-season Boise Hawks and low-A Augusta GreenJackets before joining the Express as manager for public relations and communications in 2022. He had also served as an occasional substitute or additional announcer for the Express the past two years.

Kobre replaces Mike Capps, who had been the lead announcer for the Express since their inception in 2000. That is to say, Capps was calling the games when the then-AA affiliate of the Astros featured prospects like Roy Oswalt, Morgan Ensberg, and Tim Redding. It’s the end of an era. Capps is presently handling games for UT San Antonio.

Surprise!
A week from Sunday.

Check 1-2
Welcome to (tries to think of a clever name, fails) the Lucas Report!*

If you’ve been receiving these reports over the years, nothing for you should change. I still plan to email daily reports during the season and intermittent updates in other months. Really, the only difference between now and the previous report is the name change and a different email service. I’ve archived reports at scottlucas.com the past two seasons.

I’d considered starting a new subscriber list from scratch but decided instead to port the existing list** to the new site. I hope I’ve correctly discerned that if you hadn’t unsubscribed during Jamey’s six-year stint at The Athletic, you’re willing to keep following. If not, unsubscribing is easy: just click the “unsubscribe” text at the bottom of this email and then confirm in a separate email that you’ll receive. Or just email me and I’ll remove you from the list once I stop crying.

If you’ve come across this as a non-subscriber or would like to recommend me to someone, subscribing is easy. You can sign up on my website (in a widget on the right side), where you’ll encounter a three-step process:

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3. Confirm your subscription in a follow-up email.

As before with the Newberg Report, your email and info won’t be sold or disclosed. There’s no third-party anything except the WordPress platform on my site, but I own the domain and run the emails separately through a reputable provider.  

And now, a report.

Rangers in the Top 100
Six publications I follow or subscribe to (Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic, ESPN) have published their top-100 prospect lists. Below are the ranges of Texas players on their lists:

OF Wyatt Langford – high of #2, low of #6, median 4.5
OF Evan Carter – high of #4, low of #12, median 5.5
IF Sebastian Walcott – high of #40, low of #91, median 62.5
RHP Brock Porter — #88 on one list (MLB Pipeline)

Would you choose Carter or Langford? Fortunately, if you’re a Rangers fan, you get cake and ice cream for dessert and won’t gain a pound. But if you had to pick one? Not easy. Four of six publications rank Langford higher, but except for one case, they’re pretty much #1 and #1A relative to each other.

Despite his .573 slugging percentage in 122 MLB at-bats (including playoffs), the limiting factor on Carter is probably power. Still, he doesn’t turn 22 until August and has already established a reasonable floor of “average MLB regular.”  He could be an elite leadoff hitter (complicated by the presence of Marcus Semien, but let’s leave that for another time).

Texas lucked into the 4^th pick in the 2023 draft and might have lucked into the best player. Langford could be a star. He’s probably good enough to play in the Majors today, although (pending Cactus League results) I wouldn’t automatically deem a spell in AAA a cynical ploy to game his eventual free-agent status. Some time in the minors might not hurt, particularly on defense, which drew some alarming pre-draft reviews despite strong tools. (Not that I got a lengthy look, but what I saw in the minors didn’t frighten me.) Getting Langford instead of Max Clark, who may well be a terrific Major Leaguer but not for a while, was a sudden tailwind for the franchise.

Some years ago, I would have taken Lewis Brinson into my house and raised him as a son. Now, I try to be more circumspect about young, ultra-toolsy players. Meet Sebastian Walcott. As a 17-year-old, Walcott introduced himself to America with a 13-game hit streak in the complex league, then struck out at a 58% (!) rate over his next eight games, then found a middle ground. Arizona is such a wacky, high-variance environment I wouldn’t worry too much about last year’s strikeouts, but I am looking forward to how he adapts to what will probably be a heavy dose of breaking pitches in A ball.    

Brock Porter snuck onto MLB’s top 100. The good news is “can he learn a changeup” isn’t a question that applies to him like so many would-be starters. The bad is his control varied from adequate to cataclysmic. Both his Opening Day start and final playoff start resulted in a first-inning departure. Overall, though, he maintained his high status.

International Signings
Notable players signed by the Rangers last month (rankings by MLB and FanGraphs are part of their top 50 prospects, Baseball America ranked in order of expected bonus):

OF Paulino Santana (#2 MLB, #30 FanGraphs, #29 Baseball America) – BA bestowed a “trending up” arrow on Santana, indicating he’d rank higher than 29^th on perception of pure talent. Highly favorable reports including the possibility of enough power to play a corner if shortstop doesn’t work out.

SS Curley Martha (#29 MLB, #48 BA) – Curley from Curacao, a star at the 2019 Little League World Series.

Also SS Yolfran Castillo (#46 MLB, #62 BA), SS Nathaniel Palacios (#83 BA), SS Daniel Flames (#84 BA), and IF Joaquin Arias Jr.

Minor Signings
LHP Danny Duffy – Duffy spent most of his Age-34 season with AA Frisco. Injuries have limited him to just over 100 innings the last three seasons.

RHP Jose Urena – The 32-year-old was under contract to Colorado, Washington, and the White Sox last year. That alone should tell you how his season went. He recovered somewhat with the Sox, and as depth starters go, he’s okay. Last year he threw a mid-90s fastball, sinker, slider, and change in nearly equal proportions.

RHP Adrian Sampson – Since his release from the Rangers after 2019, Sampson spent a year in Korea followed by three with the Cubs, the earliest two of which were fairly productive.

RHP Austin Pruitt – Now 34, the ex-A Pruitt leans heavily on a slider that doesn’t miss many bats but manages to limit damage. Opponents hit .243/.291/.370 with a 6% walk rate last year.

LHP Chasen Shreve – 4.63 ERA in 44.2 relief innings with Detroit and Cincy last year. Peripherals were slightly better. Opponents have tagged his low-90s fastball lately, but his splitter and slider have been fairly effective.

LHP Blake Taylor – Fairly successful if often control-averse in three seasons with the Astros. He spent all of last year in AAA and offered a 90-93 fastball and 83ish slider against Round Rock. Released by Houston last August.

RHP Jonathan Holder – The 30-year-old last pitched in the bigs in 2020, and he spent last year with the Angels’ AAA affiliate in Salt Lake. The fastball reaches 95, and his repertoire is especially broad for a reliever.

RHP DJ Peters – Former Ranger, former Lotte Giant, former outfielder. He pitched for Detroit’s rookie squad last year. According to Statcast he throws five pitches, but his wildness might have broken Statcast’s pitch-categorization algorithm. Peters walked or plunked 30% of his opponents and tacked on 19 wild pitches in just 21.2 innings. His fastball reaches 95, and the slider has serious bend.

RHP Braden Shipley – Arizona’s top pick from 2013 hasn’t appeared in MLB since 2018. He spent 2022 with Seattle’s AA squad but didn’t take the mound last year.

RHP Steven Jennings – 2017’s 42^nd-overall pick has spent most of the past three seasons as an AA reliever.

1B/OF Jared Walsh – The Angels non-tendered the 30-year-old after an injury-hampered .125/.216/.279 in 39 games that followed a subpar 2022. Should he recapture some of his dandy 2021 form, Texas conceivably has a DH/substitute 1B.

IF Matt Duffy – His second stint as a Ranger, and with Josh Jung out, a decent chance at a more memorable stay than the first. Texas signed him prior to 2020, but with no minor league games to be played, he was released that June. The semi-versatile Duffy (third, second, first, a little short and left) had a nice 2021 with the Cubs while hovering around replacement level the past two years.

C Jose Godoy – Texas is his eighth organization since late 2020. He can handle AAA pitching well enough but seemingly ranks behind both Sam Huff and Andrew Knapp on the minor league depth chart.

IF Alex De Goti – De Goti batted .180/.333/.276 between AAA Jacksonville and St. Paul last year. He’s better than that and has the advantage of shortstop proficiency over Duffy. De Goti earned a shot of espresso with the Stros in 2021.

Released
OF Zion Bannister – One of Texas’s pricier 2019 signings, Bannister was well-regarded but never hit especially well at any level. He spent some of 2023 filling the “we need a guy” role in Frisco and Round Rock.

LHP Josh Smith – The original Josh Smith, drafted in 2018’s 25^th round three years before the arrival of the other Smith in the Joey Gallo trade. Hurt nearly all of 2023.

RHP Gerardo Carrillo – Signed as a minor league free agent under two months ago, injured most of past three seasons.

Also, RHP Matt Brosky (2022 8^th-rounder), 1B Anthony Calarco (2023 American free agent), IF Frandy Almonte (2021 int’l free agent), RHP Eury Rosado (2019 int’l free agent)

Retired
IF Ryan Dorow – Texas’s 2017 30^th-rounder missed all of last season with a shoulder injury suffered in a spring game. He’d become a free agent and re-signed. In 2021, Dorow batted .255/.333/.461 in 102 games among Frisco and Round Rock. That August, he became a Major Leaguer, joining the Rangers briefly under special covid rules that permitted placement and removal form the 40-man roster without going through the waiver process. Dorow played in three games, drawing a walk in seven trips to the plate.

Elsewhere – Minor Signings
LHP Ronald Guzman, Orioles (no longer in a dual role)
IF Jurdrick Profar (younger brother of Jurickson and Juremi), White Sox
IF Nick Solak, M’s
RHP Joe Barlow, White Sox
RHP Carl Edwards Jr., Cubs
RHP Hans Crouse, Angels
OF Willie Calhoun, Angels

IF Rougned Odor signed with Japan’s Yomuiri Giants. And poor Bubba Thompson was designated for assignment for the fifth time in six months and the third time in a six-week period. He’s a Cincinnati Red, again.

Changes
Per Baseball America, the rookie complex season will begin in early May and conclude in late July, mere days after the summer draft. Since the lost season of 2020, the league has evolved into more of a graduate-level Dominican Summer League, and the new schedule should cement this change. Since the Great Reorganization of 2021, fewer draft picks are playing real games in their initial seasons (especially pitchers), but of those that do, more are reaching a full-season level. During 2017-2019, 51% of Rangers’ playing time came from draft picks or undrafted free agents subject to US rules. During 2021-2023, that percentage dropped to 33%. Conversely, appearances by international free agents increased from 45% to 61%. (The small remainder consisted of more experienced players on rehab.)

2021 also instituted a cap on the number of domestic minor leaguers under contract, and in 2024 the number of in-season players will decrease from 180 to 165. The minors have their own 60-day Injured List, and players on that list don’t count against the total, but the cat-herding exercise of keeping every squad fully staffed will be harder than ever. In 2019, nine MLB clubs fielded multiple rookie-level squads. Last year, only two. In 2024, I don’t see how an extra squad is possible.

I didn’t notice an obvious change in Texas’s offseason habits; as ever, they’ve signed more players than they could possibly stash in AAA, and cuts will come. On the opposite side, however, some former Rangers farmhands who I expected to find employment by now have not.

Asterisks
* My previous blog was called The Ranger Rundown, and while the Rangers never gave me any trouble, I decided against having the team name in my title. Plus, a podcaster asked me permission to use that title since I hadn’t in several years, and I said fine. My wife suggested Lucas Lowdown, which isn’t bad. Ultimately, I settled on the simple and clean Lucas Report. I won’t have to type “Scott Lucas of [Name of Blog].”

**I surely can’t complain about the original Newberg Minor League Report listserv, as it’s handled tens of thousands of subscribers ably over the years, but it’s acted increasingly flaky recently, with some folks not receiving reports or getting unsubscribed for unknown reasons. Regardless, I’m eternally grateful to Jamey Newberg for letting me continue to use the listserv during his time at The Athletic (and maybe using it again temporarily if I encounter difficulties with the new setup).

Signings
Texas has re-signed pitchers Reid Birlingmair and Tyler Zombro, catcher Matt Whatley, infielder Ryan Dorow, and outfielders Sandro Fabian and Elier Hernandez to minor league deals. All had become free agents after the season.

During last season, I wondered if Hernandez might be able to secure a contract in Asia for 2024. He’s pretty much an ideal AAA player. While I’m glad he’s back, I’m a little surprised, as I think he’d have a better chance at returning to MLB in a different organization. The Rangers have Garcia, Taveras, Carter, JP Martinez, and infielder/outfielders Zeke Duran and Dustin Harris on the 40 at present, plus a guy named Langford.

Fabian is still just 25, another strong AAA player. In 2023, he slugged .523 and clubbed 23 homers with only a 15% strikeout rate. He’s swing-happy but manages to put the ball in play.

Whatley is well-regarded, a strong defender, and, while not a good hitter, I think he can improve on last year’s .203/.290/.322. (Prospect status aside, I strongly prefer glove-over-bat at catcher and short in AAA. Keep the game moving, keep pitchers from having to get “extra” outs.)  

Dorow missed 2023 with a separated shoulder. The 2017 30th-rounder ably defends any infield position.

Texas signed Birlingmair out of the indy American Association last summer, and he pitched well for Hickory and Frisco.

New additions on minor deals so far are righties Gerardo Carrillo, Diego Castillo, and Jesus Tinoco, catcher Andrew Knapp, and OFs Derek Hill and Michael Reed.

The 29-year-old Castillo has 268 mostly solid MLB innings with the Rays and M’s to his credit. 2023 was a mess: lower velocity, worse control, such a poor start that Seattle designated him for assignment in April despite his $2.95 million salary. He went unclaimed and spent the remainder of the season in AAA Tacoma without any improvement until the final six weeks. Castillo would be a worthy addition to the beleaguered Texas pen if he can recapture the magic. He could also pitch himself entirely out of the organization in March.

Tinoco pitched two stints for the Rangers in 2022, once as a covid-rules replacement in June and then throughout September. He’s a trivia answer for surrendering Aaron Judge’s 62nd homer, but as depth additions go, he’s fine. Tinoco spent 2023 in Japan.

Carrillo was an important piece of the Max Scherzer trade between the Dodgers and Nats in 2021, but injuries to his shoulder and leg (I think) robbed some of his elite velocity and keep him off the field much of the past two years. Carrillo was outrighted after 2022 and became a free agent last month. He’s 25.

Maybe Knapp is next year’s Sandy Leon. Now 32, last season was the first in seven that he didn’t spend any time in the bigs, instead serving exclusively for the AAA squads of Detroit and Houston, where he compiled a .233/.328/.377 line.

Drafted 23rd overall in 2014 out of high school by the Tigers, Hill spent a large chunk of his developmental years on the injured list. He made his MLB debut in 2020 and has a .229/.279/.314 line in 108 games, including 13 last year for the Nats. He impressed in AAA (albeit as a 27-year-old), hitting .317/.373/.509 while reducing his strikeout rate.

Reed was drafted in 2016’s second round out of Florida and the player to be named in the trade for Jurickson Profar between the A’s and Pads in 2019. Reed has speed and skills for center and displayed burgeoning power at the lower levels, but he hasn’t hit much in AA/AAA and had been out of contract since mid-July.

Obviously, much can change between now and March, but by my count the Rangers have something like nine outfielders who could conceivably begin 2024 in AAA. That’s a crowd.

The 40
I’ve been maintaining various organizational rosters for a long, long time. For fun, I compiled a table of how many players appeared on the Texas 40 each year, how many were on the entire year, etc.:

In the past ten years, Texas’s most chaotic roster situation occurred in 2014. You might recall. 31 players added and deleted during the calendar year! On more than one occasion, I half-joked about a seemingly nondescript AAA player getting a call-up if he maintained his hot streak for another couple of weeks, only for that very thing to occur.

Given the playoff-push trades and incessant effort to construct a capable bullpen, you might be surprised to learn the most stable 40-man roster in the last years occurred in 2023. But on offense, the Rangers had seven hitters qualify for the batting title. Left field was the only unsettled position. Also, the top five rotation members combined for 128 starts, and additions Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer delivered 19 of the other 34.  

Small Bookeeping Note
I had some blog issues last month, now resolved, and I am intending to email using a different server henceforth. So hopefully that will resolve the problems some of you had with receiving reports, and if not, at least I’ll have a better idea of what’s going wrong. The existing server, handy though it’s been, is a black box to me.

Elsewhere
Cincinnati designated OF Bubba Thompson for assignment to make room for reliever Buck Farmer (who pitched in Round Rock in 2021). Thompson was originally claimed by the Royals off the Rangers in August, then nabbed by the Reds on waivers during the playoffs. He hasn’t been outrighted previously and is under contract, so he’ll remain a Red if unclaimed.

The Texas Rangers won the World Series.

Happy New Year.

The Texas Rangers did not tender contracts to RHP Matt Bush and LHP Brett Martin, making them free agents. Both were arbitration-eligible.

Bush was a given. Texas signed him to a minor deal after the Brewers released him earlier this season, and he was added to the 40 and active rosters late in the season. Bush was also active, albeit in name only, during the Wild Card and Division Series. He’ll turn 38 in February but was quite effective for Frisco and Round Rock, particularly with the fastball, and would be a solid depth signing assuming mutual interest.

Martin wasn’t as certain to be non-tendered but is hardly a surprise. He missed the entire season after shoulder surgery. Like Bush, Martin would be worth signing again.

Texas’s 40-man roster has 35 players.

The Texas 40-man roster currently lists 34 players, and that includes Austin Hedges, who is or should be a free agent, plus reliever Matt Bush (arbitration-eligible but surely not receiving an MLB contract) and a small handful of others whose holds on their spots are tenuous. There is no roster crunch. Within reason, the Rangers can add whom they like. The deadline is Tuesday at 5pm CST.

At the same time, 2023 is the first Rule 5 period incorporating the covid-shortened five-round 2020 draft. College and JuCo picks from that draft are eligible. Texas picked only one of that type in 2020: IF Justin Foscue. Comparatively, Texas has eight 2021 picks who’ll be eligible in 2024. By my count, Texas has only 18 first-time eligibles, a plurality of them 2019 high-school picks, plus five international free agents and some trade acquisitions. The Rangers also have another roughly 30 players still under control who were previously eligible. My unofficial list is here under the ‘Rule 5’ tab.

So Texas has an unusually large number of available spots but a relatively small pool. The Rangers added six last year: pitchers Zak Kent, Owen White, and Cole Winn, infielder Luisangel Acuna, and IF/OFs Dustin Harris and Jonathan Ornelas. I would be surprised to see six this time. An especially thrifty approach might include only two.

I’ve had a tough time with several players, even though I’ve seen a few of them frequently. Some are close calls, some have no path to a role with the Rangers, and some are relievers, a group always loaded with potential additions depending on your mood. Also, as you might have heard, the Texas Rangers won the World Series. Ordinarily, I’ve pondered offseason moves intermittently for weeks, letting my thoughts coalesce, such that my annual 40-man preview largely writes itself at deadline. This time, I didn’t give any serious thought 40/R5 issues until Saturday morning, so I’m more wishy-washy than usual and more willing to just watch the results than set down a marker.

2B/3B/1B Justin Foscue
Yes. Foscue walked more than he struck out and banged 18 homers and 35 other extra-base hits. His plate appearances are as consistent and composed as any you’ll see. In a way, he resembles Marcus Semien, who actually doesn’t possess great exit velo but generates a huge number of reasonably well-hit balls. (I am not claiming he will match Semien’s production, although I suppose that is the hope.) Foscue does not resemble Semien in the field, however, and any club employing him at second or third is going to have to avert its collective eyes occasionally.

RHP Jose Corniell
Good enough to pitch in MLB now? No. Good enough to require protection anyway? Yes.

LHP Antoine Kelly
The gap between MLB ad AAA isn’t shrinking, but at the same time, the number of AAA relievers who look MLB-worthy sometimes has never been higher. Protecting every reliever you can dream on a little would result in a bevy of prospects clogging the 40 and a panic any time a non-reliever on the big-league club required replacement. A potential relief addition should either be extremely close MLB-readiness or have closer potential. Kelly’s progression toward the Majors has been unusually deliberate given his role. I wouldn’t say he’s ready this minute, and I wouldn’t necessarily pin “future closer” on him, but I think there’s enough going on to add him.

RHP Marc Church
I saw Church in person in high-A 18 months ago. He looked like he’d be in the bigs by now. Unfortunately, his once-terrific control was frankly terrible in AAA, and he veered wildly between having the most dominating stuff on the squad to struggling mightily to complete an inning. The slider is an absolute beast and makes a resounding case for addition by itself, but his fastball was alarmingly hittable. In September, when the Rangers badly needed another trustworthy reliever, they re-rostered Ian Kennedy and Jake Latz and Matt Bush rather than take a chance on Church. Still, he could be an above-average MLB reliever, and a competing club would be very tempted to take a look. 

RHP Dane Acker
I just never got a great look at Acker this season and have very little confidence in my evaluation of him. Covid, elbow surgery and a shoulder malady have limited him to 99 professional innings in four seasons. He sports a full repertoire. I’ve heard up to 96 on the fastball, although I saw 90-94 in his final start. A good strikeout rate (26%) but poor swinging strike rate (10%). Hard to hit (.198 average, .329 slugging in AA) but below-average control (15% BB/HBP). In conclusion, Dane Acker is a land of contrasts. I can make an argument either way and am going to cop out by saying the only relevant opinions are in within the organization. My hunch is their opinions are fonder than my description.

IF Davis Wendzel
Wendzel stayed healthy all season and significantly improved his production. The batted-ball data backs him up; the improvement is genuine. Is it enough? Despite tying for the league lead in homers with 30, Wendzel’s exit velocity still doesn’t jump off the page. What he does really well, better than anyone in the Pacific Coast League, is hit the ball skyward. On the down side, he also hits a bunch of flies exceeding 45 degrees, which are almost always caught. He’d hit for more power than Josh Smith in the Majors but wouldn’t defend or run as well and doesn’t play in the outfield. What he needs more than a 40 spot on the Rangers is a trade.

1B Blaine Crim
Crim’s 90th-percentile exit velocity is nearly equal to Nathaniel Lowe and better than Josh Jung, Leody Taveras, and Evan Carter. He’s more liner-oriented than Wendzel, muting his power a bit but creating plenty of firm doubles and singles. He’s moonlighted at third and the outfield corners, but I seriously doubt he’d ever play there in the bigs. Thus, the problem. Unless he really hits, what’s his role? Weak-side platoon mate for Lowe if the latter’s problems against lefties persist? Occasional DH? Bench bat for a team that rarely needs one? Crim would have gotten a shot Texas this season had the team been playing like it was in 2021-2022, but the situation on the parent club has changed drastically.

RHP Justin Slaten
Slaten’s walk and K rates improved substantially in 2023. In the weeks prior to his promotion to AAA, he was fanning 46% of opponents. Results in AAA and the subsequent Arizona Fall League weren’t quite so enthralling. It’s hard to see Texas adding more than two relievers, but with room to spare, maybe the Rangers will. How unusual would keeping three or more be? During the previous ten seasons, Texas has selected a total of four relievers: Demarcus Evans, Wei-Chieh Huang, Lisalverto Bonilla, and Ben Rowen. That does not include folks who were starters when protected but seemed headed to eventual relief duty (Jose Leclerc, Jonathan Hernandez, Luke Jackson, to name a few).

RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa
Limited to 24 regular-season innings by injury, AHT tossed an additional 9.2 in the Arizona Fall League and earned solid reviews (albeit not at the level of the ineligible Emiliano Teodo) with his mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider. He fanned two in a clean inning in the Fall Stars game, but unfortunately he saved his worst appearance of the season for the AFL finals: four batters faced, three walks. I think there’s enough pitchers of his ilk that he’ll slide through this process, but I can’t guarantee it.

RHP Daniel Robert
Robert’s fastball averaged 96 and touched 99, and his sweeper generated twice as many called strikes as whiffs because AAA batters just don’t want to offer at it. Opponents hit a modest .239/.342/.350, but his ERA was 4.40 because the bad days included a flurry of walks and extra-hard contact. Vaguely blaming inconsistency for a pitcher’s lack of progression feels lazy, but with many relievers, that’s truly the issue. Big leaguers have fewer bad days.

LHP Grant Wolfram
So… many… relievers. The bad news is Wolfram was knocked around when promoted to AAA (28 runners and 16 runs in 13.1 innings). The good is he resumed dealing upon return to AA (2.08 ERA, 8 BB, 45 SO in 34.2 IP). Has a shot, but not this time.

1B/OF Trevor Hauver
The one player in the Joey Gallo trade yet to reach the Majors, Hauver had a another decent, walk-filled season at the plate and improved defensively. He should reach AAA next year, but not as a 40-man member.

MIF Max Acosta
Showed some pop and got by as a 20-year-old in high-A (.260/.312/.390), but I don’t think there’s any way he’d last a full MLB season, and better options for MIF-curious clubs will be available. 

RHP Winston Santos
Unfortunately, Santos’s season didn’t live up to the buzz generated in Spring Training. Maybe next year.

Elsewhere
I’ve got some Arizona Fall League and free agency news, but it’s not pressing, so I’ll probably have that tomorrow when additions are announced.

MLB — TEXAS RANGERS
P Aroldis Chapman
P Ian Kennedy
P Jordan Montgomery
P Jake Odorizzi
P Martin Perez
P Will Smith
P Chris Stratton
C Mitch Garver
C Austin Hedges
OF Robbie Grossman
OF Travis Jankowski
OF Brad Miller

AAA – ROUND ROCK EXPRESS
P Kyle Cody
P Edwar Colina
P Robert Dugger
P Josh Dye
P Scott Engler
P Lucas Jacobsen
P Fernery Ozuna
P Nick Snyder
P Tyler Zombro
C Cooper Johnson
C Jordan Procyshen
C Matt Whatley
IF Diosbel Arias
IF Ryan Dorow
OF Sandro Fabian
OF Elier Hernandez

AA – FRISCO ROUGHRIDERS
P Aidan Anderson
P Reid Birlingmair
P Noah Bremer
P Jean Casanova
P Danny Duffy
P Kyle Funkhouser
P Seth Nordlin
C David Garcia
IF Chris Seise

HIGH-A – HICKORY CRAWDADS
P Juan Mejia

UNASSIGNED
P Joshua Javier

Prospect Reviews
Following is MLB Pipeline’s early-season top-30 rankings of Texas’s prospects, new rankings, my opinion of how their status has changed (irrespective of rankings), and commentary. First, some general purpose comments to minimize repetition in the individual writeups. Nobody on this list is out of time to develop. The process is rarely linear, so some players with negative assessments could reverse that trend quickly. (For example, Cody Bradford carried a 6+ ERA into last August but was Frisco’s ace by season’s end). I prefer not to downgrade injured players much unless they’re clearly worse off. More players have negative assessments than positive, but that’s the nature of player development and not necessarily a knock on the system. Most players just don’t make it. Plus, a good number of prospects now in higher standing weren’t ranked entering the season. I’ve listed them at the end.

1 early season / 1 now. OF Evan Carter (Change: Slightly Up)
Carter has raised his floor and perhaps slightly lowered his ceiling. The concern is how much power he’ll eventually develop. On the whole, Carter has improved his status despite some relatively quiet periods and a nagging HBP injury that required some downtime in Arizona. No, I don’t think calling him up to replace Taveras now is a great idea. I wouldn’t say no to some time in Round Rock.

2/8. RHP Owen White (Change: Down)
A neck injury slowed White this spring and delayed his 2023 debut by a week. While his batted ball data is solid (outside of Las Vegas), his velocity is down, and he’s not missing nearly as many bats as in 2022. In AAA, the only pitch for which he has a better-than-team-average swinging strike rate is his slider, and that constitutes only 8% of his output.

3/traded. IF Luisangel Acuna (Change: Up)
As solid a season as anyone in the system. And now he’s a Met. That’s okay. Acuna has been auditioning for other clubs since the ’21-’22 offseason, and he was at or near peak value. Even if Scherzer is bland overall and Acuna a star, better for the club to act at the proper time than hold him well past his best-by date.

Interlude: In my opinion, it’s easy to conclude that Carter, Wyatt Langford, and Sebastian Walcott are Texas’s top three prospects. After that, the water gets murkier.

4/4. RHP Brock Porter (Change: Even)
Porter’s stuff is beyond the ability of most low-A hitters, but his control is not. He’s been handled very cautiously, averaging around 60-65 pitches per outing (excluding a couple of walk-heavy early exits). He hasn’t thrown quite as hard as advertised, but again, hitters haven’t much chance when forced to swing. He should begin 2024 in high-A.

5/5. RHP Jack Leiter (Change: Down)
Everybody’s saying the right things, and maybe it all turns out for the best, but the fact remains that the #2-overall pick in the 2021 draft isn’t pitching in real games. I’m concerned!

6/6. IF Justin Foscue (Change: Slightly Down)
Foscue has more walks than strikeouts, a rarity in this era. His contact was impressive earlier in the season, but he isn’t hitting as hard since a late-June injury and is slugging .364 during July and August. While he can play second and third, pretty much all of his value comes through the bat. He’ll be a 40 addition this fall.

7/10. 1B/OF Dustin Harris (Change: Slightly Down)
Harris’s lack of top-end exit velocity is strange and concerning. His median velo is actually above average, but toward the high end he’s the worst on the team with not a single ball in play exceeding 101.9 MPH. I’m gobsmacked, but I’m also cautiously hopeful that some sort of fine-tuning will unlock extra oomph that takes advantage of his solid launch attack. I tend to think of him more as a first baseman.

8/11. OF Aaron Zavala (Change: Down)
A year ago at this time, we could contemplate Zavala competing for some LF at-bats in Arlington. Instead, after brace surgery for his elbow, he carried into last weekend a batting average below .200, slugging percentage below .300, and a strikeout rate of 37% in AA. More than any hitter in the system, Zavala could stand for the season to be done, get some rest, and start fresh in 2024.

9/9. RHP Kumar Rocker (Change: Slightly Down)
Well, the good news is that he lorded over high-A, the fastball improved, and he largely cleaned up that seriously off-putting delivery from last fall. (No, I’m not a pitching expert and should probably stay silent, but that short, stiff step to catapult his hip forward made my skin crawl.) The bad news is he’ll be well into his third pro season and on the tail side of Age 24 before he returns to full-season ball.   

10/7. OF Anthony Gutierrez (Change: Even)
After a reset in Arizona, the 18-year-old Gutierrez has batted .276/.348/.372, good for a 115 OPS+. His walk and strikeout rates are acceptable, and he’s run well. He has some power and should gain more as he ages, but he’s hitting a ton of grounders. His three-spot climb in the rankings feels more about what others have and haven’t done than his performance.

11/traded. RHP TK Roby (Change: Up)
Roby struggled for six weeks in AA then began to dominate, allowing three runs and striking out 19 in his last three full starts before succumbing to a shoulder strain. He’s more control than command at present, but the latter is improving, and plain old control is increasingly hard to come by. Given who he was acquired for, I’m assuming no downgrade for the shoulder.

12/12. OF Yeison Morrobel (Change: Slightly Down)
Morrobel was limited to 37 games because of a shoulder injury. His batting eye was impressive, but the power was almost completely absent. Morrobel won’t turn 20 until December, and I could revise my grade to “even” by just by seeing some nice hacks form him next March.

13/28. RHP Cole Winn (Change: Down)
The troubles of 2022 have persisted. Since last May, Winn has walked or hit 153 batters in 187 innings. He’s genuinely improved in relief, but the walk/HBP rate is still worrisome, and he’s not the type who can prevent contact well enough to strand a bunch of free runners.

14/3. IF Sebastian Walcott (Change: Up)
Walcott is generally regarded as the most exciting professional 17-year-old after San Diego’s Ethan Salas. Walcott is an already muscular 6’4”, joined the complex league in late June, and batted .388/.425/.791 with 13 extra-base hits in 16 games. Since then, he’s struggled, badly: .179/.253/.299 with a 39% strikeout rate. A good reminder that he’s facing pitchers averaging 21.3 years of age, and he’s a project.

15/traded. IF Thomas Saggese (Change: Up)
21-year-olds who hit like him in AA reach the Majors, period. Many become solid role players, many become starters. Not many settle for a cup of coffee. His defense is a limiting factor.

16/17. LHP Mitch Bratt (Change: Even) – Bratt lacks above-average velocity and ranks well toward the low end of Sally League pitchers in swinging strike rate, but he still fans plenty of batters and possesses some of the best control in the system. A lat injury has shelved him for a month.

17/21. IF Jonathan Ornelas (Change: Slightly Down)
Ornelas is an up-and-down player today, and his defense is fine. Gaining a larger role on this or another team will require some offensive adjustment. While he’s held up adequately against AAA pitching, a predilection for grounders has dampened his production, and although he’s walking more, he’s also watching more strikes than anyone on the team.

18/18. IF Gleider Figuereo (Change: Slightly Down)
Figuereo’s offensive production has cratered the last two months. In fairness, he’s 19 and well past his previous career-high in games in a season.  Sometimes, players run out of gas.

19/19. RHP Marc Church (Change: Slightly Down)
Church’s cutter is fearsome. In AAA, plate appearances that conclude with his cutter have resulted in an opposing line of .159/.260/.227 and a 40% strikeout rate. Two problems. First, his fastball hasn’t been nearly as effective (.313/.476/.479, 14% K), and his walk rate has decayed considerably as he’s climbed the ladder. His strike rate in AAA is lower than Alex Speas, which is saying something. Still a very strong 40 candidate.

20/22. RHP Emiliano Teodo (Change: Slightly Down, maybe even)
Teodo’s ERA has jumped 1.56 between 2022 and 2023. Some of the difference is probably luck plus some slight degradation in walks, strikeouts, and grounder rate. He hasn’t been bad and is still missing a ton of bats, but after his intermittently amazing 2022, this season feels more of a holding pattern.

21/off. RHP Zak Kent (Change: Even)
Kent returned recently from an oblique injury that sidelined him for over three months. The absence delayed his development, of course, but so far he’s looked close to the same as before, so I see no reason to grade him lower.

22/off. RHP Dane Acker (Change: Slightly Down)
Fully back from Tommy John surgery, Acker has been fine in AA (3.00 ERA, .216/.328/.360 oppo line) but a little walk-happy, and I’m doubtful he’s added to the 40 this fall.

23/25. LHP Antoine Kelly (Change: Up)
Kelly pitched himself out of a probable 40-man spot last summer. Now, he’s pitching himself back into one. Kelly’s 11% BB/HBP rate is league-average, a vast improvement over 2021-2022, and he’s been tough to hit.

24/29. OF Alejandro Osuna (Change: Even)
Out since the beginning of July, Osuna has improved on his already-solid walk rate and reduced his caught-stealing frequency. His stats didn’t amaze, but he was hitting pretty well for a 20-year-old in high-A.

25/off. IF Max Acosta (Change: Slightly Down)
The same age as Osuna, Acosta stormed out of the gate but has batted .228/.270/.341 the last three months and change. His power has improved, but the strikeouts and walks are trending backwards.

26/graduated. LHP Cody Bradford (Change: Up)
Bradford isn’t as good as his display early in the season in AAA, but he’s pitched well enough to reach the Majors and been quite effective at times. In a perfect world, he would fill the back of the 2024 rotation. Maybe that also entails sliding into a lesser role late in the summer depending on the situation, but 15-20 starts within shouting distance of league-average ERA would be swell.

27/30. IF Danyer Cueva (Change: Slightly Down)
I’d written Cueva’s blurb early in this process, but Gleider Figuereo’s season is so similar I moved my Cueva writeup to Figuereo’s spot word-for-word except for the name. One difference: Cueva has an exceptionally high 21% swinging strike rate.

28/15. RHP Josh Stephan (Change: Up)
Superior control and three double-digit strikeout games in Hickory pushed the undrafted 21-year-old to AA, but he’s missed several weeks since his Frisco debut. Still, a strong and promising season.

29/27. RHP Winston Santos (Change: Slightly Down)
A little underwhelming given the buzz around him in March. Many Rangers experience a leap in homers moving from Down East to Hickory (tougher hitters, more generous home park), and Santos is no exception. He’s allowed 16 in 87.2 innings, and his strikeout and swinging strike rates have dropped significantly.

30/off. IF Chandler Pollard (Change: Even)
Pollard has struck out at an unnerving 36% rate in rookie ball, but otherwise he’s been fine at the plate. I guess we could have hoped for a promotion to Down East, but he’ll be there next April.

Biggest Upward Movers
OF Wyatt Langford — new at 2
SS Sebastian Walcott — 14 to 3
IF Cam Cauley — off-30 to 13
1/O Abi Ortiz — off-30 to 14
RHP Josh Stephan — 28 to 15
RHP Aidan Curry — off-30 to 16
IF Echedry Vargas — off-30 to 20
RHP Jose Corniell — off-30 to 23
1/O Marcos Torres — off-30 to 24
C Jesus Lopez — off-30 to 25

Biggest Downward Movers
RHP Owen White — 2 to 8
RHP Cole Winn — 12 to 28
IF Jonathan Ornelas — 17 to 21
LHP Zak Kent — 21 to off-30
RHP Dane Acker — 22 to off-30
OF Alejandro Osuna — 24 to 29
IF Max Acosta — 25 to off-30
IF Chandler Pollard — 30 to off-30