Category: Daily Report

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 9, Albuquerque (COL) 8 (11)
Round Rock: 13 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 6 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 7-7, 2 GB, 41-48 overall

SP Ryan Garcia: 2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 52 P / 28 S, 9.17 ERA
RP Luis Curvelo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.67 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 3-6, 2B, SB (21), .256/.345/.390
DH Josh Jung: 0-6, .200/.200/.250
1B Rowdy Tellez: 2-4, HR (2), .333/.375/.800
LF Trevor Hauver: 2-4, BB, .273/.386/.421

Dustin Harris on June 3: .202/.221/.212, 0 extra-base hits
Dustin Harris since June 3: .298/.358/.532, 14 XBH

Studying the Statcast data reveals… hmm. Even during this better period, Harris’s median and 90th-percentile exit velocities are still more than two MPH below PCL averages. His upper-end velocity has barely budged compared to his earlier, power-free period. He does have a much better hard-hit rate lately (29% vs. the earlier 16%, all below the PCL average). He appears to have pushed more balls in the midrange of his velocity band up about three ticks, turning 88s into 91s, 93s into 96s.

Harris is also killing four-seam fastballs. He hit .267 with no extra bases hits against them through June 3, and since then he’s batting .459 and slugging .811, plus only three misses out of 161 swings. Overall, though, the change in Statcast data is muted compared to the huge increase in production. Keep in mind that I could be missing something, and that clubs have their own and much more detailed data which could (and probably does) contain info I’m missing.

Round Rock used eight pitchers including Craig Kimbrel and Peyton Gray for the second night in a row.

Josh Jung was 0-6, and four of his outs concluded the inning and stranded a total of six runners in scoring position.

AA: Frisco 4, at Amarillo (ARI) 1
Frisco: 8 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts
Record: 6-10, 3 GB, 44-40 overall

SP David Davalillo: 4.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 75 P / 49 S, 2.03 ERA
RP Larson Kindreich: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 3.18 ERA
1B Josh Hatcher: 3-4, HR (9), .258/.283/.394
DH Keith Jones II: 2-3, BB, .222/.317/.389

In three starts, Davalillo has walked three and struck out 14 in 13.1 innings. I’d mentioned seeing him in person on a slightly off night, and that night remains the least of his three AA starts.

Sebastian Walcott is out the weekend for the Futures Game.

Hi-A: Hub City 10, @ Rome (ATL) 2
Hub City: 14 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 12-7, 1 G up, 43-41 overall

SP Dalton Pence: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 49 P / 36 S, 1.64 ERA
RP DJ McCarty: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 6.04 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 3-5, SB (31), .255/.330/.321
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-5, HR (15), .216/.281/.392
CF Dylan Dreiling: 3-5, 2 2B, .216/.313/.348
RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-5, 3B, HR (5), .209/.277/.349
Julian Brock: 3-5, .222/.290/.314

Gutierrez is 7-for-13 with two walks and eight steals in his past three games. Since some time off for injury, Dylan Dreiling is hitting .295/.276/.307 in 23 games.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, at Lynchburg (CLE) 2 (7)
Hickory: 7 hits, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts

SP Garrett Horn: 3 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 45 P / 33 S, 1.64 ERA
RP Thomas Ireland: 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.04 ERA
LF Maxton Martin: 1-3, BB, SB (10), .268/.337/.449
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-3, BB, .246/.361/.325

Cabrera has been consistent; his worst OBP in a single month is .341. Platoon splits weren’t an issue last year, but lefties are giving him trouble in 2025 (.119/.275/.119). I sure would love to see Yeison Morrobel go on a tear. Now in his fifth season, he’s been highly regarded at times, and he certainly looks the part but is slugging .331 in 207 full-season games, which I wouldn’t have thought possible.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, at Lynchburg (CLE) 3 (7)
Hickory: 7 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Record: 15-4, 1.5 G up, 45-36 overall

SP Brooks Fowler: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 66 P / 47 S, 1.42 ERA
RF Hector Osorio: 2-2, HBP, .256/.400/.360

Hickory scored everything in the 1st, capped by Pablo Guerrero’s two-run double. Adrian Rodriguez allowed two runs in the 7th but held on. The 2019 39th-rounder has an arsenal that has produced 215 strikeouts in 143 pro innings, but his current opposing OBP of .379 is actually his best of the last three seasons. He can become a free agent after the season

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: Bratt
Hi-A: Molina
Lo-A: Scarborough

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The 11th-best season by a position player was Jurickson Profar in 2012.

For programming reasons, I can’t discuss any prior seasons. In 2012, Profar received the Elvis Andrus treatment, an assignment to AA Frisco at the age of 19 years and 44 days. After a slow first week, Profar heated up and never really cooled, embarking on a 29-game hit streak within a 49-game on-base streak, during which he batted .308/.373/.520. While he wasn’t going to match Elvis defensively at short, he reached base at slightly better rate than Andrus’s 2008 AA season and hit for much more power, providing 82 extra bases compared to Andrus’s 35 in a similar number of trips to the plate.

From there, the story got darker. Profar received a late-season call-up but would return to AAA to begin 2013, and although he spent most of that year in the Majors, he didn’t hit well. Still, 2014 was intended as his breakout, accentuated by the shocking trade of 2B Ian Kinsler to give Profar a home and bolster first in the form of Prince Fielder. It sounded good on paper (well… sort of), but at that point Profar suffered shoulder injuries that would wipe out his next two years. During 2016-2017, he played only 111 MLB games, and in September 2017 he was conspicuously not recalled from AAA, resulting in an extra year of contractual control. To my recollection, it’s the only obvious case of service-time maneuvering by the Rangers while I’ve been on the beat, and it included the arguably mitigating factor of the two years of service time he accumulated on the IL.

2018 brought the belated breakout offensively, but even then he was bouncing between short, third and first. After the season, he was shipped to the A’s for Eli White and Brock Burke (plus more) as part of a crowded three-team deal. Outside the Rangers, Profar has an OPS+ of 103 built on wild inconsistency, and he’s rated below average both in fielding and his spots on the defensive spectrum.

A click on the franchise page at Baseball Reference reveals pictures of Texas’s top 24 players measured by Wins Above Replacement. It’s a shame Profar isn’t among them. In a just world, he would have reached the list before reaching free agency. He was that promising.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 2, Albuquerque (COL) 3 (10)
Round Rock: 7 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 6-7, 3 GB, 40-48 overall

SP Ty Blach: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 25 P / 18 S, 3.88 ERA
RP Joe Barlow: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 5.27 ERA
3B Josh Jung: 1-4, .262/.863/.357
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, 2B, .294/.380/.514

The bad guys scored the tying run off Robby Ahlstrom in the 9th. If you checked the box and saw a “Gray,” know that there’s a Peyton in addition to the rehabbing Jon, and the former is who threw the 10th last night. Josh Jung (1-4) lined a single to left. An effort an an oppo homer fell short.

AA: Frisco 12, at Amarillo (ARI) 13 (11)
Frisco: 11 hits, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 5-10, 4 GB, 43-40 overall

SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 73 P / 50 S, 5.69 ERA
RP Ryan Lobus: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 4.65 ERA
CF Cam Cauley: 3-5, SB (24), .254/.330/.419
SS Sebastian Walcott: 1-6, HR (9), .238/.338/.381
C Ian Moller: 1-5, HR (4), .235/.329/.356

Walcott’s dinger broke streaks of 32 games without a homer(.220/.338/.246) and 23 games without any extra-base hits (.209/.317/.209). He did at least reach base at a reasonable rate in this time. Josh Stephan pitched well and in fact has two of his better starts of the season in the league’s least hospitable park.

Oh, about that score. Frisco led 11-2 in the 8th, only for Amarillo to plate five that inning and four in the 9th. With the score tied, the bases loaded and two out, reliever Gavin Collyer went 3-0 to Tommy Troy and on the next pitch barely nabbed the border to avoid a walk-off. He then induced a flyout to force extras, but after a trade of runs in the 10th, Amarillo singled in the gift-runner in the 11th.

Hi-A: Hub City 6, @ Rome (ATL) 1
Hub City: 11 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 11-7, , 42-41 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 27 P / 20 S, 5.77 ERA
RP Dylan MacLean: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.86 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 3-5, 3 SB (30), .248/.325/.315
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, .228/.300/.359

Anthony Gutierrez stole three bases after the previous night’s four. Employing his speed has never been an issue.

Kolton Curtis avoided a walk for the first time this season.

Lo-A: Hickory 3, at Lynchburg (CLE) 2
Hickory: 7 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 13-4, tied for 1st, 46-36 overall

SP Enrique Segura: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 72 P / 48 S, 3.53 ERA
RP Brock Porter: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 3.56 ERA
RP Luke Savage: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 1.38 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-4, 2B, BB, .275/.416/.344
C Ben Hartl: 1-4, HR (1), .216/.351/.287
1B Pablo Guerrero: 1-2, 2 BB, .198/.279/.306

Enrique Segura settled down after a messy, two-run, 26-pitch 1st. He retired his final 14 opponents in order. Porter’s outing never evolved beyond “messy,” but he and following reliever William Privette managed to escape unharmed.

Pablo Guerrero essentially disappeared just before Memorial Day. Since then, he’s fanned in just under a third of his plate appearance and is somehow hitting under .200 when he makes contact. Guerrero won’t turn 19 until the end of this month.

Hickory has three more wins than any other team in the division and the best run differential in the league (+60).

Today’s Starters
AAA: Garcia
AA: Davalillo
Hi-A: Pence
Lo-A: Horn / TBA

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The 12th-best rotation season belongs to Luke Jackson in 2013.

Jackson was picked 45th-overall in 2010. Both during his climb to the Majors and thereafter, he’s had a strange career, sometimes amazingly dominant, sometimes giving the impression he’ll be out of pro ball within weeks. Even during 2013, I wouldn’t have bet on him still being around in 12 years. His stuff was electric but erratic, while his control was almost always a problem.

After a couple of seasons that offered promise but not much on the stat sheet, Jackson returned to high-A Myrtle Beach and stepped forward. More and better strikes reduced both his walk and hit rates. While he never produced a double-digit strikeout performance, he consistently missed bats and allowed zero runs in one-third of his starts. Promoted to AA, Jackson was indomitable in a much tougher environment, striking out nearly 30% of his opponents and posting an 0.67 ERA.

Jackson never reduced his reliever risk substantially. He always had a solid fastball but needed time to build the secondaries and tighten his delivery. His curve eventually transformed to a slider after years of teasing. In 2015 the Rangers switched him to the role he occupies today. He was all over the place in AAA and the Majors, and at the end of 2016, with his value at an ebb, he was traded for a modest return to Atlanta. Through multiple injuries he’s maintained employment, even becoming Atlanta’s and Texas’s closer for a while, but for the most part he’s been a middle or setup reliever with varying levels of trustworthiness.

Coming in at #11 on the list is Justin Grimm in 2012.

Grimm was selected in 2010’s fifth round out of Georgia. In a way, he was a predecessor to Alejandro Rosario (note: results pending), weak statistically in college but viewed as having potential that a professional development staff could tap. He didn’t pitch in the pros during his draft year but reached AA by the start of his second full season. In 13 starts, he posted a 1.87 ERA with an opposing line of .228/.267/.316. At that point, two years and a week after his draft date, the Rangers called him up for his MLB debut. Grimm tossed six innings of three-run ball against the Astros and earned the win. After a lesser start and relief appearance, he returned to Frisco but jumped to AAA Round Rock the next week. Results weren’t as forthcoming there, but he would make two more MLB relief appearances in late September. (For what it’s worth, MLB results have no bearing on my rankings.)

2013 was a tough year, but he still was viewed positively and was part of the package for Matt Garza at the trade deadline. Justin Grimm ended up with an 80 ERA+ and replacement level WAR across nine MLB seasons, but some of those seasons were worthy, and I’d argue his quick ascent and contributory value to that trade (even though Garza didn’t pan out) count as an organizational success.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 5, Albuquerque (COL) 3
Round Rock: 12 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 6-6, 3 GB, 40-47 overall

SP Jon Gray: 2 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 32 P / 20 S, 4.50 ERA
RP Kohl Drake: 5 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 4.32 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-2, HR (7), 2 BB, HBP, 2 SB (20), .255/.348/.392
Josh Jung: 1-5

Last week, Kohl Drake pitched better than his line of 3.1 IP, seven hits and four runs. Last night was the reverse. Drake had four swinging strikes, his lowest total of the season in any appearance of length. Opponents missed only one of 20 swings on-zone pitches. He allowed a homer to his first opponent and four other balls in play that at least hinted at leaving the yard, all 97 or higher off the bat and lofted. He also had a stretch of five batters in which he started 0-2 but ended up expending a large number of pitches trying to finish them off:
Sean Bouchard: 7-pitch walk
Owen Miller: 4-pitch GIDP
Drew Romo: 6-pitch walk
Aaron Schunk: 6-pitch flyout
Adael Amador: 9-pitch groundout

That said, the takeaway isn’t “oh no, he’s bad” or even “he’s worse than advertised.” As with David Davalillo three weeks ago, I simply caught him on a lesser night. It happens. Despite the 0-2 issues, Drake completed five innings on a reasonable 72 pitches, and two of those innings went by in a flash.

Drake’s fastball has plenty of run and averaged 93.8, topping at 95.5. Statcast would lead you to believe he emphasized the slider, but it’s frequently mischaracterizing a curve that peaks in the low 80s and actually has more horizontal break than his slider, which veers into cutter territory. He K’ed Sam Hilliard on a called curve and Zac Veen on a fastball. He also offered a mid-80s change.

Jon Gray pitched well in his first rehab appearance. His fastball averaged 94 and topped at 95.0. He added a slider averaging 86, a few curves in the 77-82 range, and a change. Sam Hilliard sat on a first-pitch fastball for a homer that is listed at 350′ despite skying over the 407′ mark left of center.

Josh Jung lined hard to center in his first appearance and was robbed of two RBI on another liner snared by rehabbing shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Dustin Harris had a day, homering to lead off the 1st and reaching four other times. I haven’t had a chance to analyze the Statcast data, but his results are vastly improved lately. On June 3rd, Harris was hitting .202/.331/.212 with a double as his only extra-base hit. Since then: .301/.365/.549 with seven homers.

AA: Frisco 3, at Amarillo (ARI) 5
Frisco: 6 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-9, 3 GB, 43-39 overall

SP Daniel Missaki: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 58 P / 40 S, 5.79 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 1-4, HR (8), .248/.327/.416
DH Sebastian Walcott: 1-3, BB, SB (20), .240/.341/.375
1B Abimelec Ortiz: 1-4, HR (11), .216/.332/.381

Homers off relievers Jackson Kelley and Josh Mollerus accounted for all of Amarillo’s runs. Frisco likewise produced everything via the long ball.

Hi-A: Hub City 2, @ Rome (ATL) 1
Hub City: 4 hits, 8 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 10-7, 0.5 GB, 41-41 overall

SP Josh Trentadue: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 83 P / 57 S, 1.27 ERA
RP Wilian Bormie: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2.70 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 1-3, 2 BB, 4 SB (27), .240/.319/.309
SS John Taylor: 2-4, 2B, HR (1), .375/.394/.563

An eight-pitch at-bat resulting in a triple ended Josh Trentadue’s night just shy of five innings and equaling a season-high 83 pitches. Trentadue’s ERA has improved from 4.46 in 2024 to 1.27 this year, but that includes a healthy dose of luck (bad last year, good this). That’s not to say he’s simply holding his ground; I’d still say he’s improved. Anthony Gutierrez stole four bases of Rome pitchers and catcher Mac Gusette, whose rate of one successful steal per 4.2 innings is second-worst among the 20 busiest catchers in the league. To drive that home, Arturo Disla stole two bases yesterday. Disla actually has four in his last four games. He’s not speedy, not at all, but he’s an alert runner who’ll take advantage of a sleepy opponent.

Lo-A: wet

Two Friday.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Blach
AA: Stephan
Hi-A: TBD
Lo-A: Fowler

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 5, Albuquerque (COL) 6
Round Rock: 11 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 5-6, 3 GB, 39-47 overall

SP Cory Abbott: 4 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 53 P / 37 S, 8.13 ERA
RP Peyton Gray: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.27 ERA
RP Cole Winn: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
3B Josh Jung: 2-5, 2B
1B Blaine Crim: 1-4, HR (14), .292/.378/.515
DH Rowdy Tellez: 1-3, HR (1), BB

Twice delayed by weather, Josh Jung doubled high and deep to the opposite corner for a double and lined a single in his first game after being optioned. He ended the contest with a strikeout, looking at a top-of-zone curve and swinging through two difficult changes from Nick Anderson.

Rowdy Tellez homered 344′ to left-center in his organizational debut. Blaine Crim later launched a missile to the upper deck beyond the left-field berm.

OF Billy McKinney refused his outright assignment to become a free agent but immediately re-signed.

AA: Frisco 8, at Amarillo (ARI) 7 (10)
Frisco: 11 hits, 8 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 15 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-8, 2 GB, 43-38 overall

SP Ben Anderson: 6 IP, 9 H (2 HR), 5 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 88 P / 57 S, 4.42 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, 2B, BB, .248/.328/.408
LF Aaron Zavala: 2-5, BB, SB (5), .257/.391/.396
C Ian Moller: 2-3, HR (3), BB, .236/.333/.340

At least for the meantime, Aaron Zavala is back to AA after collecting one hit, one walk and eight strikeouts in 17 trips to the plate in Round Rock. Zavala’s Statcast data is weirdly benign for such a poor line. I would have expected terrible strike rates (both called and swinging), but he’s at or near the league average. The problems were a very high strike rate on first pitches and a poor ratio of balls in play to fouls when he swung. The Express were also swamped with incoming players late last week: Justin Foscue, Tellez, Jung, McKinney.

The extra-inning win was aided by Gerado Gutierrez’s four-pitch walk to Sebastian Walcott, who was 0-5 until then.

Hi-A: Hub City 0, @ Rome (ATL) 4
Hub City: 5 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 9-7, 1 GB, 40-41 overall

SP Leandro Lopez: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 64 P / 41 S, 2.19 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 1-3, 2B, BB, .239/.314/.309
2B Casey Cook: 2-4, .208/.284/.271

Leandro Lopez rarely dazzled but held a weak offense in check on the road. Hub City had little to say with the bats.

Lo-A: Hickory 6, at Lynchburg (CLE) 4 (10)
Hickory: 10 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 10 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 12-4, 0.5 G up, 45-36 overall

SP Ismael Agreda: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 61 P / 32 S, 2.72 ERA
RP Grant Cherry: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 4.15 ERA
C Ben Hartl: 2-4, 2B, BB, .216/.353/.269

Hickory led 4-1 entering the bottom of the 9th, but a single, hit batter and four walks forced extras. The Crawdads responded with two runs in the top of the 10th, and reliever Jesus Gamez, largely responsible for Lynchburg’s comeback, retired the side (after an opening walk).

IF Devin Fitz-Gerald, who appeared to injure his shoulder last week, finally landed on the IL.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Drake
AA: Missaki
Hi-A: Trentadue
Lo-A: Segura

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The 12th-best position player season during 2007-2024 was by Jason Botts in 2007.

As with Edinson Volquez (my #13 rotation pitcher), I might have excluded Botts with more careful editing. He’d made his MLB debut in 2005, and by 2007 he was on the old side of 26 and had played 30 games at the top level. That’s okay, though. He was an interesting, polarizing player.

Texas had signed outfielders Sammy Sosa and Frank Catalanotto over the winter. Four days before Opening Day, Botts was optioned to Oklahoma City to play his 751st minor league games and 197th in AAA. After a lean opening month, Botts batted .365/.484/.638 with 44 extra-base hits and 67 walks over the course of 76 games. For the season, Botts finished second in average, first in OBP and fourth in slugging among the eight eastern clubs in the Pacific Coast League.

The Rangers were done out of the gate in 2007, so Botts finally received another chance at the end of July. He reached base at an acceptable rate, but most of the power stayed behind in OKC. Although that trial didn’t inspire much confidence, he entered 2008 out of options and made the 2008 Opening Day roster. He played infrequently and was designated for assignment with only 46 plate appearances. Botts bounced around several organizations and spent some time in Japan and Mexico, but he would not return to the Majors.

Botts had a hulking, top-heavy frame that tended to exaggerate his accomplishments and misfortunes. While he certainly had his supporters (me among them) who wanted him to at least get a decent chance to prove himself, the visuals of his strikeouts and occasional defensive miscues unfortunately made him easy to dismiss. (For what it’s worth, Botts had a dismal defensive reputation but actually graded out just fine statistically.)

Incidentally, I met Botts in Surprise in 2008. A few minutes prior, I’d accidentally rubbed sunscreen into my eyes, temporarily making the sun painful and blinding, so when I shook his hand, I had my head bowed and gaze down as if I were a commoner getting an audience with an Aztec ruler.

The Rangers are 44-46 despite a positive run differential of 25 runs. A neutral record for that differential would be 48-42. With a league-average offense, meaning 4.09 runs per game instead of the actual 3.78, the potential record would be 51-39. Texas with a league-average offense but including the current level of bad luck would be 47-43. That’s not great, but it’s one game out of the wild card instead of four.

Often, luck manifests in the form of a lopsided record in one-run games, but the Rangers stand at 14-15, which honestly seems about right. Put another way, the current situation doesn’t feel like the result of bad luck. Sad to say, it feels earned.

Regardless, Fangraphs currently projects the worst AL wild card to conclude at 86-76, so the Rangers would need a 42-30 finish to match that.

Box Scores

AAA: wet

To be made up in September. The starting lineup included Josh Jung at third and Rowdy Tellez at DH. The Express have tomorrow off and host Albuquerque during the week leading up to the All-Star break.

AA: Frisco 1, at Arkansas (SEA) 5
Frisco: 6 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 4-8, 3 GB, 42-38 overall

SP Trey Supak: 6 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 76 P / 56 S, 4.48 ERA
LF Keith Jones II: 1-3, BB, .240/.269/.480

Early hit-heavy sequences placed the Travelers ahead 5-0 in the 2nd.

Frisco has three consecutive 2-4 series despite allowing only 4.1 runs per game in that span, second only to Midland. Sebastian Walcott has no extra-base hits in his last 21 games, hitting .218/.319/.218. He had yesterday off.

Hi-A: Hub City 4, Winston-Salem (CHW) 1
Hub City: 5 hits, 7 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 9-6, tied for first, 40-40 overall

SP Jose Gonzalez: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 7 SO, 71 P / 53 S, 2.94 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1.98 ERA
2B Casey Cook: 2-3, 3B, BB, SB (20), .204/.281/.268
RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-3, HR (4), BB, .213/.280/.331

Erik Loomis has four consecutive two-inning outings with four or five strikeouts. His 44% K rate ranks third among 178 South Atlantic League pitchers with at least 20 innings. As you’d expect, he also sports an elite swinging strike rate of 11.7%.

Wait. 11.7% isn’t elite. It’s not even league-average. Missing bats correlates strongly to strikeouts, but Loomis is a ridiculous outlier:

How is this possible? It appears to be a combination of 1) a higher-than-average rate of pitches taken, and 2) a higher-than-average rate of called strikes. It’s bizarre and likely unsustainable, but I’d add that during the four-game stretch I mentioned, in which Loomis has fanned 18 of 27 (67%), his miss rate is a genuinely elite 18%.

Jose Gonzalez was absurdly efficient again.

Weird, accidentally discovered stat: Of the 150 MLB-affiliated minor league teams in the US, only Hub City has not hit a triple on the road.

Lo-A: Hickory 2, Kannapolis (CHW) 9
Hickory: 9 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 9 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 11-4, 0.5 GB, 44-36 overall

SP David Hagaman: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 37 P / 21 S, 7.71 ERA
DH Hector Osorio: 2-4, .253/.399/.364
RF Marcos Torres: 2-4, .243/.328/.388

Hagaman was pulled during a four-run 2nd. He’d only thrown 25 pitches, but coming off Tommy John and with the results being what they were, that apparently was the limit.

Apologies for the sketchy schedule this week. I’ve been vacationing in Mexico but a little under the weather lately and, to be honest, a little unenthusiastic about writing as I’ve followed the events in and around my city. I have a brief summary of Friday’s games here.

Texas signed IF Rowdy Tellez to a minor deal. In his career, Tellez has 116 homers, a .436 slugging percentage, and 0.0 wins above replacement. The power giveth, everything else taketh away. Unlike Blaine Crim and Justin Foscue, Tellez bats lefty and was slugging .463 against them in 171 plate appearances with the Mariners. The Ranger are actually slugging better against righties (.378, .146 ISO) than lefties (.336, .117 ISO) this season, but “better” does not equal “good.”

Box Scores

AAA: rain

They’ll make this up in August.

AA: Frisco 6, at Arkansas (SEA) 1
Frisco: 8 hits, 6 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 4-7, 3 GB, 42-37 overall

SP Mitch Bratt: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, 80 P / 53 S, 2.55 ERA
CF Cam Cauley: 2-4, 2B, HBP, .246/.327/.408
C Ian Moller: 2-4, 2B, .227/.323/.312

Mitch Bratt has enough strong starts that I can’t pull a particularly inviting stat from this one. It was just yet another solid night. Among the top 100 AA pitchers in batters faced, Bratt has the second-best BB/HBP rate (5%) and third-best strikeout rate (31%).

Hi-A: Hub City 6, Winston-Salem (CHW) 1
Hub City: 11 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 5 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 8-6, 1 GB, 39-40 overall

SP Mason Molina: 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 81 P / 53 S, 1.32 ERA
RP Wilian Bormie: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 2.83 ERA
C Malcolm Moore: 2-4, .254/.392/.356
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-4, HR (14), .218/.281/.393
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-3, BB, .217/.313/.352

Mason Molina hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit in three high-A starts. Squelching power in low-A was actually a weakness, so I’m skeptical of this trend, but regardless, Molina should be fine at the level, and once he reaches AA we can assess with more scrutiny.

Malcolm Moore is .241/.303/.241 in eight games off the IL. Gleider Figuereo hasn’t lost much playing time since the arrival of fellow 3B Rafe Perich, starting seven games at third versus just four for Perich, who’s had more days off plus spot-starts at first and DH.

Lo-A: Hickory 10, Kannapolis (CHW) 5
Hickory: 10 hits, 6 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 7 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 11-3, 0.5 GB, 44-35 overall

SP Caden Scarborough: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 7 SO, 62 P / 38 S, 3.86 ERA
LF Maxton Martin: 1-5, 3B, HBP, .272/.336/.462
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-5, SB (26), .244/.357/.326
RF Hector Osorio: 3-4, 2B, HBP, .247/.397/.361
SS Esteban Mejia: 1-3, HR (1), 2 BB, .242/.373/.319

Caden Scarborough yielded three runners by walk or HBP for only the second time this season, but he also recorded an out in the 5th for the first time.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Boushley
AA: Supak
Hi-A: Gonzalez
Lo-A: Hagaman

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 7, Sugar Land (HOU) 2
Round Rock: 8 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 6-4

SP Michael Plassmeyer: 4 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 69 P / 43 S, 4.75 ERA
RP Luis Curvelo: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 3.62 ERA
RP Codi Heuer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.91 ERA
C Cooper Johnson: 1-3, HR (3), .202/.345/.289
RF Kellen Strahm: 1-2, 2 BB, SB (28), .264/.362/.392

Aaron Zavala collected his first AAA hit. It’s been tough sledding so far, reminiscent of his earlier troubles, as he’s 1-for-16 with a walk and eight strikeouts.

AA: Frisco 0, at Arkansas (SEA) 2
Frisco: 7 hits, 0 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 2 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 3-7

SP David Davalillo: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 53 P / 33 S, 2.08 ERA
SS Sebastian Walcott: 2-4, .243/.342/.382

David Davalillo returned from a spell on the development list and a skipped start. He improved on his AA debut but received no help.

Hi-A: Hub City 10, Winston-Salem (CHW) 5
Hub City: 11 hits, 0 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 8 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 7-6

SP Dalton Pence: 3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 52 P / 34 S, 0.00 ERA
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-4, HR (13), .217/.281/.383

Pence has appeared nine times as a “long opener,” lasting up to three innings and around 50 pitches.

Lo-A: Hickory 7, Kannapolis (CHW) 1
Hickory: 10 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Record: 10-3

SP Garrett Horn: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 33 P / 24 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Thomas Ireland: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 3.28 ERA
RP William Privette: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.99 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-3, 2B, 2 BB, .276/.417/.345
LF Maxton Martin: 2-4, BB, .273/.335/.458
RF Hector Osorio: 2-3, BB, SB (6), .234/.387/.344

Antonis Macias broke a seven-game walkless streak.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Sugar Land (HOU) 7
Round Rock: 10 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 8 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-4, 1 GB, 39-45 overall

SP Ty Blach: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 70 P / 43 S, 4.07 ERA
RP Cole Winn: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Robbie Ahlstrom: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2.96 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, HR (6), .255/.345/.385
2B Cody Freeman: 2-5, 2 HR (12), .317/.370/.509
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, BB, .296/.381/.513
LF Trevor Hauver: 1-3, 2 BB, .276/.384/.435

Craig Kimbrel allowed two walks and a game-tying homer in the 9th before recording an out. He preserved the tie, but the Express couldn’t score in extras while Sugar Land advanced the gift-runner home on a flyout and single. Kimbrel has surrendered only four hits in eight innings, but three have left the yard. Combined with some errant pitches, Kimbrel sports a weird .138/.342/.448 opposing line. That obviously won’t get him to Arlington.

AA: Frisco 5, Arkansas (SEA) 8
Frisco: 9 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 3-6, 1.5 GB, 41-36 overall

SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 8 H (1 HR), 7 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 86 P / 57 S, 5.86 ERA
LF Wyatt Langford: 1-3, HR
DH Abi Ortiz: 1-3, 2B, BB, .219/.329/.383

Langford homered 425′ to center. Nine of the first 16 batters reached against Josh Stephan, who was nevertheless efficient enough to provide five innings. In five of 13 starts, his runs have exceeded his innings.

Hi-A: Hub City 9, @ Winston-Salem (CHW) 7 (10)
Hub City: 14 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 7 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 6-6, 1 GB, 37-40 overall

SP Dylan MacLean: 4.2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 71 P / 47 S, 4.18 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2.13 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 3-5, BB, 2 SB (23), .241/.310/.309
2B Casey Cook: 3-5, SB (19), .197/.273/.256
LF John Taylor: 4-5, 2 2B

Hub City led 5-3 in the 9th, but Adonis Villavicencio hit two batters, balked and allowed two hits, resulting in extras. The Burgers responded with four in the 10th and made them stick, albeit with difficulty. Eric Loomis has fanned 14 of his last 21 opponents.

Lo-A: Hickory 7, at Kannapolis (CHW) 2
Hickory: 10 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 9-3, 1 GB, 42-35 overall

SP Brooks Fowler: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 56 P / 31 S, 1.29 ERA
RP Brock Porter: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 3.40 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-4, 2B, .271/.411/.336
3B Beycker Barroso: 1-2, 2B, 2 BB, .213/.364/.270
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-4, BB, 2 SB (25), .245/.361/.330

I had a note about IF Devin Fitz-Gerald written up but forgot to insert it. He appeared to injure his left shoulder diving for a grounder Wednesday and was pulled. Initially, he was writhing on the ground, and out of sympathy, so was I. After a few minutes, he could extend his arm and make some rotational motions, so perhaps the news won’t be too bad. He didn’t play yesterday, but as of my time of writing, he remains on the active roster.

Brock Porter has five consecutive walk-free outings. He hasn’t necessarily been great during this period, but the basic control is there.

Complex
We have a Jose Corniell sighting. In his first real action since September 2023, Corniell allowed a walk and single in an inning. Now 22, Corniell underwent elbow surgery last June. He’s on the 40-man roster and is using his second option. Aidan Curry struck out eight, walked none and allowed one hit in five innings. Although never listed as injured, Curry disappeared from high-A Hub City three weeks ago and has pitched twice with the rookies since.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, at Sugar Land (HOU) 8
Round Rock: 5 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts
Record: 5-3, 1 GB, 39-44 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 90 P / 63 S, 8.10 ERA
RP Peyton Gray: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 2.35 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, .250/.344/.367

In his AAA debut, Kohl Drake pitched much better than his line suggested. The first three hits didn’t escape the infield, and the consecutive doubles that ended his night were a medium-hard and soft grounder down the line. Per Statcast*, Drake’s fastball ranged from 92 to 95, a bullet-type slider topped at 89, a healthy number of changes averaged 84, and a handful of curves averaged 80. He missed 12 bats, including two of each pitch type.

Yesterday, I mentioned Skylar Hales’ tendency for the bad nights to be bad indeed, and thus went his AAA debut. The first ten pitches resulted in a hit batter, wild pitch, single and homer.

Josh Jung wasn’t on the roster yet. His demotion was a shock, but also, not really. He’s been dreadful lately and the team is trying to salvage the season, so the move makes sense. I joked on social media that Jack Leiter looked more comfortable at the plate, but that wasn’t entirely a joke. Hopefully, the demotion is brief and fruitful.

* Specifically, my interpretation of Statcast, because the system tends to misclassify offerings from new pitchers; for example, one of Drake’s “four-seam fastballs” was 89 MPH with zero arm-side run and seven inches of induced vertical break.

AA: Frisco 7, Arkansas (SEA) 6
Frisco: 11 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 1 walk, 14 strikeouts
Record: 3-5, 1 GB, 41-35 overall

SP Ryan Lobus: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 37 P / 27 S, 4.89 ERA
RP Josh Mollerus: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Gavin Collyer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.19 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, 2B, 2 SB (23), .246/.325/.412
LF Keith Jones II: 1-4, 3B

Collyer earned his seventh save, most in the system. With an above-slot bonus of $585,000 in the 12th round of 2019, Collyer has used nearly all of his seven years rounding into relief-prospect form. He spent nearly four full years at the A levels, some of them in a nondescript long role, but during 2025 he getting shorter and higher-leverage looks, offering a fastball reaching into the upper 90s and a mean sweeper. Collyer can become a free agent at season’s end unless the Rangers decide to protect him on the 40 or make an offer he can’t refuse.

Hi-A: Hub City 4, @ Winston-Salem (CHW) 6
Hub City: 10 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts

SP Leandro Lopez: 2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 46 P / 29 S, 2.37 ERA
RP Anthony Susac: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.86 ERA
LF Quincy Scott: 4-4, 2 2B, .226/.326/.356
1B Arturo Disla: 2-5, SB (2), .222/.288/.352

Lopez’s outing was shortened by rain.

Hi-A: Hub City 2, @ Winston-Salem (CHW) 1 (7)
Hub City: 4 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 1 hit, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 5-6, 1.5 GB, 36-40 overall

SP Josh Trentadue: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 69 P / 36 S, 1.20 ERA
RP Joey Danielson: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.63 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-3, 2 SB (11), .217/.315/.355
C Julian Brock: 1-3, HR (2), .215/.286/.305

Trentadue struck out seven of 15 batters.

Hub City hitters not named Keith Jones are hitting a collective .212/.293/.312, a 78 OPS+.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, at Kannapolis (CHW) 2
Hickory: 7 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts
Record: 8-3, 1 GB, 41-35 overall

SP Enrique Segura: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 70 P / 45 S, 3.45 ERA
RP Jesus Gamez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.69 ERA
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-4, HR (4), SB (21), .240/.357/.328

I’m not sure what we have in Enrique Segura, but when he’s throwing strikes, we have something to talk about. He’s walked 11 in 31.1 innings, well below the league average, although the addition of five hits batter undercuts his overall control.

Yeremi Cabrera celebrated his 20th birthday with a homer.

Box Scores

My Monday report doesn’t appear to have gone through. Here it is.

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Sugar Land (HOU) 2
Round Rock: 5 hits, 8 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-2, 1 GB, 39-43 overall

SP Patrick Murphy: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 11 P / 7 S, 3.38 ERA
RP Joe Barlow: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 4.97 ERA
RP Luis Curvelo: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.77 ERA
RP Craig Kimbrel: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 43.86 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 1-3, 2 BB, .245/.341/.365
SS Cody Freeman: 1-3, 2B, BB, .319/.373/.495

More promotions, beginning with outfielder Aaron Zavala and reliever Skylar Hales to Round Rock from Frisco. Zavala’s is already a victory, coming after an early-2023 brace surgery that capsized his career, leaving him floundering in the water amongst sharks and labored metaphors. He looked done, frankly, but his and organization’s perseverance have produced a rebound and deserved bump to AAA. Zavala struck out three times in four trips to the plate in his debut, and that’s always an occupational hazard for him because of both patience and some miss in his swing.

Hales, drafted in 2023’s 4th round, established himself as a relief prospect from the get-go. He hasn’t dominated quite to the extent I’d originally hoped but is one step from the Majors less than two years from being selected. He fanned over 30% of opponents in AA with an opposing line of .223/.305/.351 but had a 5.26 ERA because his occasional bad days sometimes get away from him.

Also to Round Rock is Kohl Drake, likely Texas’s best pitching prospect among those healthy and currently in action.

AA: Frisco 5, Arkansas (SEA) 6
Frisco: 11 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 2-5, 2 GB, 40-35 overall

SP Ben Anderson: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 88 P / 56 S, 4.13 ERA
RP Jackson Kelley: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 3.00 ERA
1B Jake Burger: 1-3, BB
RF Keith Jones II: 2-5, HR (1)
DH Abi Ortiz: 1-5, HR (10), .218/.329/.383
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, HR (7), SB (21), .239/.321/.400

Up to AA in his first full professional season is 2024 9th-rounder Keith Jones II. On a statistical basis, Jones was Texas’s best minor league hitter in the season’s first half, hitting .270/.406/.451 for high-A Hub City. With some patience, pop and speed, he’s at least quality upper-level depth. Jones does tend to hit a bunch of grounders, but that hasn’t muted his output yet.

Hi-A: suspended

To be completed today.