Month: February 2025

Rosario Out

Per local reports, RHP Alejandro Rosario has an elbow injury that will likely require season-ending surgery. Rosario entered the season as baseball’s #39 prospect per FanGraphs, #50 per MLB.com, #64 per The Athletic, and #72 per baseball Prospectus.

I saw the word “acute” in reference to his injury, but some worrisome events preceded this news. Rosario was promoted to AA Frisco in early September but was shut down with fatigue before making an appearance. He was also absent from the invite list to Major League camp. Not that the Rangers were obliged, but I was expecting him on it.

Jack Leiter’s Sinking Outlook

Hey, I can do clickbait headlines, too. In 2024, Leiter threw 1,028 four-seam fastballs and zero sinkers. In his Saturday debut: 13 four-seamers, seven sinkers. The latter were originally classified as fours but later changed, and yes, they’re really sinkers, averaging about a tick lower in velocity with less vertical break and 12”-17” of horizontal break. They ran middle-to-high and mostly within the zone.

His regular fastball averaged 98.8 and topped at 99.9. Locationally, it had the spray that dampens its effectiveness, either too high to offer at or mid-mid. Yes, its late February and his first outing, but I’m noting for future reference. Leiter’s fastball ranks highly in Stuff models but had a league-worst value of -16 runs in 2024, even though he threw only 35 innings. Not today but before long, the only meaningful stats will be the results.

Another Signing

Texas signed 36-year-old Kevin Pillar to a minor league deal. Despite intending to retire after last season, he’s aged pretty well and wouldn’t be the worst guy to have around. He can still defend, run, and get a hold of an occasional pitch. He’s never walked much, and the loss of 40 points of batting average from his prime undercuts his utility. Since 2022, he has a power-oriented, OBP-averse line against lefties (.250/.261/.472) and not much of anything against righties (.173/.250/.292).
 
Your New Spring Training Overlord

Through Sunday, MLB’s spring leader in homers and slugging percentage (min. 5 plate appearances) is none other than OF Trevor Hauver, who has a double and two homers in five trips to the plate. Through August 11 last season, Hauver was hitting .195/.305/.305 with a 33% strikeout rate, frankly the kind of performance that might get a 25-year-old released. In his final 29 games, Hauver reached safely in 27 and batted .374/.485/.701 with 17 doubles, six homers and a 22% strikeout rate. I didn’t delve more than superficially into the data at the time, but now I have. Here’s some info before and after August 11:

Hard-hit rate: 30% before, 48% after (PCL average 35%)
Median exit velo: 87.6 before, 94.2 after (89.8)
90th-percentile exit velo: 103.0 before, 104.2 after (103.1)
Average on 95+ exit velo: .500 before, .615 after (.545)
Slugging on 95+ exit velo: .955 before, 1.300 after (1.091)

Hauver didn’t improve his top-end velo so much as pull his mid-range from below-average to outstanding. Particularly relevant was his improvement against fastballs:

Whiff rate: 25% before, 10% (!) after (PCL average 22%)
Avg./Slugging on contact: .273/.409 before, .357/.607 after (.369/.621)
Line on PAs ending with fastball: .150/.313/.225 before, 303/.452/.515 after (.280/.395/.471)

Hauver is 26, doesn’t play center and isn’t hailed for his defensive prowess, so you’d might as well treat him like a first baseman in terms of how he’ll need to hit to get noticed. Also, elements of last year’s hot streak are unsustainable, like a .512 average on contact including a .372 average on exit velocities under 95. There’s almost nothing he could do to make the Opening Day roster. (I guess if he’s still slugging 2.000 a month from now, we can revisit.) Still, if can maintain a good portion of last year’s late improvement, he’s going to get noticed.

Elsewhere

OF Travis Jankowski signed a minor deal with the Cubs.

Reunions

RHP Luke Jackson (33 on Opening Day)
I saw Jackson’s sixth professional outing in person at Hickory, a five-inning, one-run, ten-strikeout performance against Yankees-affiliated Charleston. He was 19. I was not 19 and am now old enough to consider his current age of 33 young. To be honest, as he approached the Majors, he didn’t look like a great bet to reach eight years of service, but he’s achieved them with a mix of perseverance, occasional dominance, injuries, and some choppy seasons. When in form, his money pitch is a slider, which he didn’t throw as a Ranger, although his curve had enough tilt/bend to pass for one. Fittingly, his slider could pass for a (very hard) curve, as it doesn’t break much laterally but has an extra six to eight inches of drop versus the league average.

RHP Joe Barlow (29)
Barlow hasn’t pitched in the Majors since being designated for assignment and lost to Kansas City in August 2023. The Royals immediately optioned him to AAA Omaha and later snuck him through waivers. Barlow signed a minor deal with the White Sox last winter but spent much of the season on the shelf and was released from AAA Charlotte last July. Peak, healthy Barlow is a credible MLB reliever, if not a competitor for his former closing role. His likelihood of making the Opening Day roster is awfully slim, but regaining past form and a place near the front of the AAA depth line isn’t out of the question.

Trivia: Barlow is the only pitcher in MLB history with at least 20 saves and fewer than 80 career innings.

A Crowd

So, you’d like a job pitching in relief for the Texas Rangers. Take a number.

Texas has acquired six experienced free-agent relievers this offseason: Shawn Armstrong, Robert Garcia, Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb. Let’s assume all make the Opening Day active roster*, leaving only two open bullpen spots. Who are the contenders (besides you, of course)?

Assuming a rotation front-four of deGrom/Eovaldi/Mahle/Gray, Cody Bradford and Kumar Rocker are fighting for the final starting spot. Bradford is more likely to slide into a relief role if not in the rotation, while Rocker would probably head to Round Rock to continue in a starting role.

Texas has eight other relievers on the 40 with MLB experience: Marc Church, Dane Dunning, Gerson Garabito, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Walter Pennington, Daniel Robert and Cole Winn. All have options. Dunning finished 2024 in a ditch but has the lengthiest resume. I’d think Leiter is destined for Round Rock’s rotation unless his spring performance absolutely compels a big-league bullpen role. Among the others, Church has the most upside, and I’m sure the Rangers would love him to stake a claim immediately, as he nearly did last March. The remaining five fall into a different category, probably jockeying for first dibs on up-and-down roles and the chance to prove long-term inclusion.

Texas also has six in camp on minor deals who pitched in the Majors in 2024: Caleb Boushley, David Buchanan, Jesse Chavez, JT Chargois, Matt Festa and Adrian Houser.  The ageless Chavez enters as the favorite among this group, although Chargois also pitched well last year. As long as we’re here, we’d might as well toss in Barlow, ex-Cub Codi Heuer (hurt last year), and contenders already in the system like Robby Ahlstrom, Dane Acker and Skylar Hales.

Oh, Texas also has Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo on the 40. Both are nominal starters with no experience above AA, but with strong springs they could make some noise. Finally, the Rangers signed free-agent reliever Luis Curvelo straight to the 40, but he too has yet to reach AAA.  

So, 25 players (plus you) competing for two spots. That’s… that’s a lot. Every year, the Rangers (and everyone else) sign more players than they can possibly use, and every year I try to figure out who’ll be cut and who’ll be assigned where. This year, the task of assigning those last two bullpen spots and the 15-16 pitching spots in both AAA and AA will be as tough as any I can recall. Sure, some will hang around on the Injured List, but keep in mind that once the season starts, the Rangers will be limited to 165 domestic minor leaguers, and players on the ordinary (not 60-day or full-season) IL do count against that total.

Incidentally, “real” games commenced yesterday. In a 5-2 loss to the Royals, Dunning fanned two and allowed a hit in two scoreless innings. Garabito (1 H, 1 BB) and Ahlstrom (1 H, 1 SO) provided a scoreless single frames.

* Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball: “I’m not convinced both Webb and Armstrong make the roster.” Fair enough, but let’s just assume so for now, plus one extra spot doesn’t change the discussion that much.

Fifty

Adolis Garcia wants to hit fifty homers. Super. On Bluesky, I offered: “30 homers, a .320 OBP, and don’t run in on semi-sharp flies that end up one-hopping the wall. That’s about 3.5 wins. That’s the goal.”

On further review, that production doesn’t reach 3.5 wins above replacement, not without, say, 2023-level fielding or unforeseen improvement in contact. With 600 plate appearances, a .250/.320/.481 line, 30 homers, and league-average baserunning and fielding, he’ll land at around 2.8 WAR* (assuming run production inputs don’t change substantially from last year). That’s lower than what I suggested before doing the math but still a huge improvement over his roughly replacement-level 2024. I’d be thrilled.

For 3.5 WAR, he’d need an extra five homers (raising his slugging percentage to .509. approximating his previous best) plus a slightly above-average combo of running and fielding. Not likely, but not an absurd projection. If Garcia hits 50 homers and matches prior bests in average, doubles, walks, fielding and running, he’ll reach 6.7 WAR. Absurd, but a fun daydream.

If you peruse his statcast data, you can talk yourself into almost any outcome for 2025 (except maybe 6.7 WAR). His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barreling were still strong last year. He underperformed his expected production. His fielding outs above average fell from the 82nd percentile in 2023 to 1st (meaning last); surely a healthier knee will remedy that. Conversely, some players simply age poorly, and Garcia might be among them. At the least, it’s not unreasonable to discount his outlying 2023 (best OBP by 28 points, best slugging by 52) in any 2025 projection.

I am hopeful that Garcia can be at least good enough not to worry about. Something akin to 2022 at the plate plus adequate running and fielding would be worth a shade under two wins.

* I said 2.6 on Bluesky, but I’ve refined the calculations.

Elsewhere

The White Sox claimed RHP Owen White off waivers from the Yankees. In the span of three weeks, White’s Spring Training destination changed from Arizona to Florida to Arizona.

Ex-Rangers righty Mason Englert, designated for assignment by Detroit, was traded to Tampa Bay for high-A lefty Drew Sommers.

RHP Andrew Heaney signed a one year, $5 million contract with the Pirates. Pittsburgh also released RHP Yerry Rodriguez and designated RHP Brett de Geus for assignment. Rodriguez had signed early in the offseason.

Pitchers and catchers report today. The first official spring training game is in nine (!) days.

Speaking of pitchers, by my count, Texas has 58 healthy ones with experience at AA or higher, and the combined MLB/AAA/AA active rosters can only hold 45, give or take. The number fighting for these spots grows further with potential promotions from the lower minors, although at this point I’m not expecting many, as the Rangers already bumped several from Hickory to Frisco late last season.

I didn’t want a 4,000-word report last month, so I postponed reporting on all the recent minor league additions. Let’s get caught up. Given the 33-game spring schedule, I expect you’ll see many of these names in the boxes.

Incoming

RHP Tim Brennan (Age 28 on Opening Day)
Brennan re-signed after becoming a free agent. Texas’s 2018 seventh-rounder fell to an elbow injury in late 2022, and last season’s return was calamitous, to be frank (6.54 ERA, 83 baserunners in 42.2 AAA innings). His once-pinpoint control disappeared, and he isn’t the type who can whiff his way out of tense situations. With better control this spring, he should ably handle AA hitters if placed there or get another shot at AAA.  

RHP David Buchanan (35)
Drafted in 2009’s sixth round, Buchanan debuted strongly in the Majors in 2014, but by 2017 he’d begun the first of seven seasons in Japan or Korea. He returned to the US in 2024 and made one more MLB appearance. At no point in his career has he struck out many batters, so I’d expect an inning-eating AAA role.

RHP JT Chargois (34)
Chargois has bounced around six organizations plus Japan and was non-tendered in November despite solid if not flashy numbers produced by a 95 MPH sinker and mid-80s slider. The problem is multiple trips to the injured list the past three seasons including two terms on the 60-day IL. He’s a good signing and decent bet for another 30-40 MLB innings in Texas or elsewhere.  

RHP Jesse Chavez (41)
Did you know that Chavez relieved Bob Gibson in Game 1 of the 1964 World Series, the only postseason start of Gibson’s nine that didn’t result in a complete game? Okay, not quite true, but Rickey Henderson genuinely was still active when Chavez originally signed with Texas. That said, he’s as likely as anyone on this list to find himself in Arlington during 2025.

RHP Matt Festa (32)
DFA’ed and traded to the Cubs for cash last month, Festa was soon designated again, took free agency once unclaimed, and re-signed with the Rangers. Previously, I’d mentioned him as “a handy guy to stash in AAA if he hadn’t run out of options.” Now, Texas can stash away, although that absence of options precludes the up-and-down role for which he’s probably best suited.

RHP Peyton Gray (29)
A former Rockie, Royal and Red, the undrafted and oft-injured Gray has thrown only 155 summer innings in seven seasons, none in affiliated ball since 2021. Still, he’s pitched exceptionally well in winter ball lately, so at the least he’ll be worth a peek if you’re wandering the back fields next month.

RHP Nolan Hoffman (27)
A reliever since his time at TAMU, the now-27-year-old spent his first full season in AAA in 2024.  At Norfolk, he bumped his strikeout rate to 28% compared to the 22% of 2021-2023, but his walk rate nearly doubled. Hoffman deals a low-slot sinker and slider. Incidentally, Hoffman was the first pick in the 2021 minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, 28 selections before Robert Garcia.

RHP Hanser Lara (28)
He’s a veteran of sorts, having originally signed with KC nearly ten years ago but without a single appearance after 2018. In April of that year, he threw three scoreless innings against Hickory. An area scout filed a glowing report that night, and seven years later, Lara’s a Ranger. I’m sure that’s what transpired.

RHP Daniel Missaki (28)
Born in Japan. Brazil in the 2013 World Baseball Classic and a contract with Seattle. Milwaukee via trade in 2015. Two Tommy John surgeries. Three years of indy and farm ball back in Japan. A summer in Venezuelan. Last summer in Mexico and with the Cubs. Now a Ranger.

RHP Travis MacGregor (27)
Still awaiting the call, the Pittsburgh 2016 2nd-rounder impressed in the unfriendly confines of Salt Lake last year, posting a 3.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .248/.325/.367 line in long relief. He threw a four-seamer and sinker averaging around 94, an 88 cutter and 83 sweepy slider.

RHP Patrick Murphy (29)
In 2024, Murphy split time between the major and minor versions of Nippon Ham, actually pitching better at the higher level. Murphy offered a mid-90s fastball and low-80s curve while stateside during parts of 2020-2022.

C Tucker Barnhart (34)
Meet your third catcher. 34 next week, Barnhart has spent the last 11 years in the Majors, a primary backstop for eight. He hit well enough (for a catcher) much of that time but has posted a .208/.286/.255 line the past three seasons.

C Chad Wallach (33)
Wallach spent most of the past three seasons with the Angels, mostly in AAA. With the departures of Sam Huff and Matt Whatley, Texas didn’t have any AAA-ready catchers (excepting perhaps Cooper Johnson, who’s yet to play at that level but had a nice season at Frisco).

C Brandon Martorano (27)
An extra catcher for Frisco and/or Round Rock. Martorano spent several years in the San Francisco system and finished 2024 at indy Gastonia.

IF Nick Ahmed (35)
Ahmed has never posted a 100 OPS+ in 11 MLB seasons and sports a line of .221/.271/.327 over the past four years. So… why? Because even at 35 he provides a worthy up-the-middle glove. Still, for the first time in his career, finding a spot on an MLB roster is likely to require some time-biding in AAA, whether at Round Rock or elsewhere.

IF Jax Biggers (27)
Sooie. The 2018 eight-rounder from Arkansas rejoined the Rangers after becoming a free agent. Biggers doesn’t hit especially hard but is finely attuned to the robot-assisted strike zone of AAA, drawing a walk nearly one of every six times at the plate and reaching at a .390 clip in Round Rock.

IF Alex De Goti (30)
The former Astro split between Frisco and Round Rock last year.

IF Alan Trejo (28)
Trejo hit the cover off the ball in Albuquerque but struggled badly in Colorado (.228/.276/.334 across four seasons). Scaling high-altitude AAA stats to MLB remains impossible. He’s isn’t playing much shortstop nowadays, so he’d need several breaks to get a ticket to Arlington, especially with the signing of Ahmed.

OF Sam Haggerty (30)
Haggerty missed most of 2024 with an Achilles injury and was non-tendered by Seattle. Like Ahmed, he’ll need some fortune to return to MLB, although with his versatility he’s got a shot at a bench role. He’s spent a majority of his 202 MLB games in left but (especially in AAA) can play anywhere but catcher.

OF Cody Thomas (30)
The former OU QB was drafted by the Dodgers in 2016’s 13th round and reached the Majors briefly in 2022-2023, batting .250/.308/333 in 29 games with the Athletics. Thomas ventured to Japan last year but couldn’t gain a foothold, instead spending most of the season at Orix’s farm club. His AAA stats are inflated by Las Vegas, but he should offer some power for Round Rock and/or Frisco.

In Charge

Changes to the minor league coaching/development system were modest. All four full-season managers return: Doug Davis in AAA Round Rock, Carlos Cardoza in AA Frisco, Chad Comer in high-A Hub City, and Carlos Maldonado in low-A Hickory. Nick Janssen has replaced Guilder Rodriguez as the complex-league manager, with Rodriguez shifting to a bench role. At the full-season levels, the only coach new to the organization is AA bullpen coach Carson Phillips.

Jon Goebel, last year’s AA pitching coach, has graduated to AAA plus hold the title of upper-minors pitching coordinator. Last year’s AAA pitching coach, Dave Borkowski, remains in Round Rock as bullpen coach and would (I expect) simply be the pitching coach if/when Goebel’s duties require time away from the Express. Replacing Goebel in Frisco is Jose Jaimes, last year’s rookie-level pitching coach. Former pitching coordinator Jordan Tiegs is now the Texas bullpen coach.

Elsewhere

The Yankees claimed RHP Owen White off waivers from Cincinnati and re-designated him five days later. His status is pending. I suspect plenty of clubs would like an opportunity to right White’s ship but not at the expense of a 40 spot, even though he has an option.

The Rays designated IF Oslevis Basabe for assignment and traded him to San Francisco for cash. Barely four years after the Nathaniel Lowe trade, neither Texas nor Tampa has anyone from that swap in its organization.

Detroit designated RHP Mason Englert for assignment. After being swiped from the Rangers in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, Engert managed (barely) to stick the entire season in the Majors, posting a 5.46 ERA in 56 innings with a good walk rate and surfeit of homers. His 2024 yielded similar results, but he spent much of the season in the minors.  

The Marlins claimed RHP Ronny Henriquez off waivers from Minnesota. Henriquez had been outrighted and became a free agent after 2023 but re-signed with Twins and quickly regained an up-and-down relief role. Entering 2025, he’s out of options.

RHP Neftali Feliz signed a minor deal with Seattle. I thought I’d mentioned him previously, as news of his supposedly imminent signing broke well before by previous report, but I must have decided to wait until the move was official. Feliz last pitched in the US in 2021 and spent the last three seasons in Mexico. I did see a story about him with the clickbait headline “Former Rangers Star Signs Surprise New Deal That’ll Crush Texas Fans,” and… can we not, please? I’m not even dented, much less crushed, and honestly would be fine if he made the M’s roster. I would draw the line at him pitching well against the Rangers, however.

Other minor deals for players in the system last year: RHP Jonathan Hernandez (TAM), catcher Matt Whately (TOR), IF Jose Barrero (STL).

And deals for those from the more distant past: LHP Kolby Allard (CLE), RHP Alex Speas (MIN).

Round Rock Express Tickets

An acquaintance of mine runs an eight-way split of four excellent season tickets in the fourth row one section to the right of home plate. He is looking for one or more parties to join the group. If you’re interested, email me and I’ll give you his contact information.

Organization Info

A reminder than I keep lists of the 40-man roster, all stateside squad rosters, players who’ve left the organization, Rule 5 qualifications, and more here. I try to maintain them steadily but errors and omission occur, so feel free to point them out.

Social Media

I’ve posted less this winter than any in recent memory, and almost exclusively on Bluesky. For those who follow, I expect I’ll ramp up soon. As to whether I’ll double-post at X/Twitter and Bluesky, I haven’t decided. Regardless, this year I plan to emphasize getting worthwhile info into reports and not just social media, a task I’ve occasionally handled poorly.

Next

Top-100 lists, organization rankings, early thoughts.