Texas Rangers 40-Man Deadline Preview

On Tuesday, the Rangers and their competition must update their 40-man rosters in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft. This eligibility period fully incorporates the covid-shortened 2020 draft, which when combined with limits on the domestic roster leaves the Rangers with a smaller pool than usual. By my count, Texas has only 16 first-time eligibles, two fewer than last year.

I have an unofficial table of eligible players under the ‘Rule 5” tab. The second and third columns are what matters. Players in the second column have been through this process at least once before, while those in the third are eligible for the first time.

The Rangers have 37 players on the 40 as of Monday night. Are the Rangers facing a severe roster crunch? I don’t think so, even with signings of Major League free agents needed as well. I see a decent number of potential removal candidates. The Rangers can’t go hog-wild but shouldn’t have trouble finding spots for who they want.  

Here’s a summary of clear additions, question marks, and some players who have minimal chance of being selected but deserve a mention.

RHP Winston Santos
A lock. Santos struggled at times upon promotion to AA, but the stuff is there and would easily translate to a short/swing role on a Major League staff.

RHP Emiliano Teodo
Should you be concerned about his stamina and control precluding a starting role in the Majors? Sure. Should you be concerned about whether he’ll be protected? No.

IF Max Acosta
Acosta’s prospect status peaked the day he was signed in 2019 and had slowly waned since, until recently. Had I written this preview in mid-July, I’d have offered an easy “no” plus a sentence or two about him getting by as 21-year-old in AA and still having a shot. Through July 9, Acosta was batting .245/.307/.345, essentially meeting expectations given his age and history. Thenceforth, he hit .326/.389/.505 during the regular season plus .338/.413/.521 in the Arizona Fall League. The underlying metrics were impressive, not mere Arizona flattery. Among 46 hitters with at least 25 balls in play, Acosta ranked third with a median exit velocity of 96.9 MPH. He also walked more and struck out less. As ever, he can run and play short. He seems to have taken a step forward lengthy enough for the Rangers to upgrade their commitment.

LHP Bryan Magdaleno
During a June business trip to DC, I headed south to Fredericksburg to watch Alejandro Rosario’s final low-A start. I was also treated to lefty Bryan Magdaleno, signed in late 2019 as an 18-year-old but still lacking much experience outside the complex entering 2024. He straightforwardly mowed down a side with a 96-98 fastball and slider. As it transpired, I was witness to Game 3 of a 20-game scoreless streak (excluding one extra-inning unearned run), during which Magdaleno allowed three hits in 25 innings, walked or hit 11, and struck out 41 (47% rate). He finished the season in AA Frisco as high-leverage reliever, although his lone playoff appearance ended the scoreless streak. Could Magdaleno could withstand constant exposure to MLB hitters in March? Maybe not, but finding out the hard way wouldn’t be fun.

1B Abimelec Ortiz
Through July 9 (same as Acosta), Ortiz was batting .183/.259/.306 with five homers (1.9% rate). Unlike Acosta, expectation were decidedly unmet. Thenceforth, he hit .321/.416/.611 with 15 homers (6.6% rate). In the second game of the Texas League semifinals, he delayed Frisco’s elimination for a day with a two-out, two-strike, game-tying 9th-inning homer followed by an extra-inning walk-off sac fly.

Best as I can tell, only four first basemen have been selected in the last ten Rule 5 drafts, and the only two to last the season at the MLB level were Ryan Noda and Mark Canha, both with the A’s, the latter as a LF nearly half the time. With slight unease, I feel Texas will expose him despite his resurgence.

RHP Josh Stephan
Stephan excelled in the Arizona Fall League after a second-straight injury-shorted regular season. Enough to warrant a 40 spot? Stephan has a fine slider (22% miss rate overall, 40% of swings in the AFL) and solid control, but starting in the Majors next March would be a huge ask, and his overall repertoire doesn’t migrate to a pen role as easily as the other pitchers I’ve mentioned. I lean toward Stephan sneaking through the process unprotected and unclaimed, even after the additional exposure in Arizona.

1B Blaine Crim
Another turnaround! Crim batted .215/.323/.351 through June, .324/.424/.600 the rest of the way. Crim’s metrics were swell even during his slump, and late in the season he received attention from some nationally oriented prospect writers (here and here). Through six professional seasons including 280 games in AAA, Crim has always hit. He doesn’t run at all and has zero positional flexibility, so the question is whether he’d hit enough to make an impact in the Majors as a first baseman, particularly as a Rule 5 pick who couldn’t be optioned. If he’s not starting, what is his role? A right-handed bench bat, in 2025, when organizations value flexibility seemingly more than ever?

I truly hope Crim gets the chance to prove himself, in Texas or elsewhere, but I don’t know that it’s occurring through this Rule 5 process.

RHP Dane Acker
Tricky. In 2024, Acker improved his control from poor to passable while fanning one-quarter of his AA opponents. Converted to long (but still meaningful) relief in August, at least for the interim, Acker pitched even better. I guess the problem is upside. If an opposing GM doesn’t see a starter or at least a 7th-inning role, why not just bring another relief NRI to camp instead of bothering with the Rule 5 process?

IF Cody Freeman
Despite no longer playing catcher, Freeman improved his standing with a career year at the plate and strong defense at third (and second). I’ve seen positive reviews offering a future utility role, perhaps even a busy one. Still, I don’t think he’s there yet, and I think he’ll pass through untouched.

RHP Ryan Garcia
Garcia’s 2023 was ugly, to be frank, such that I thought he might not be in the organization in 2024. Instead, he took advantage of a second turn through AA and then pitched well in eight AAA starts. Garcia could stand to improve his control a little more, but his well-rounded repertoire kept hitters off-balance and prevented excessive hard contact. He’s fly-prone but seemingly has a knack for inducing the sky-high types which cause no damage. Some eyewitness scout or video analyst saw him on a good day and filed a promising report, but I doubt he’d be selected.

LHP Robby Ahlstrom
Ahlstrom pitched capably in AAA, albeit with a few more walks than you’d like, but doesn’t stand out enough to warrant the hassle of Rule 5 restrictions. In 2025, if he’s the hot hand when a Texas reliever suffers an injury or one too many poor outings, he could get the call.

OF Kellen Strahm
Strahm finally reached AAA after more than two years in Frisco and performed admirably. He can run, cover center, take a pitch, drive one occasionally. Good depth, as it stands.

OF Trevor Hauver
The lone prospect in the Joey Gallo trade yet to reach the Majors, Hauver stormed through the final month in AAA (.384/.500/..717) after a difficult four-plus months (.193/.303/.311). He won’t be selected, but he has that nice finish to build on in 2025.

RHP Aidan Curry
A recent MLB.com story listed Curry as Texas’s toughest 40 decision. I wouldn’t make that claim.  A 40-spot contender entering 2024, Curry finished June with equal numbers of innings and runs allowed. He has a promising arsenal and improved overall down the stretch (albeit with worse control), but at present we’re talking someone who’s yet to retire high-A batters with any consistency. In a perfect world, he’s next year’s Winston Santos.
 
Arizona Fall League Championship
Surprise fell to Salt River 3-2, preventing a third consecutive championship for the Texas-aligned squad. Shortstop Max Acosta singled twice to drive in both Saguaro runs and walked. In the 1st, he lined 106 MPH to left to bring in KC’s Jac Caglianone. Acosta’s infield single plated Chase DeLauter in the 5th. Cleanup hitter and CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3 with two meaningful walks, both extending the inning with two outs to set up Acosta’s singles. Alas, with two aboard and two out in the 9th, he couldn’t quite beat the throw on a chopped grounder.

Three of the four Surprise pitchers were Rangers. Josh Stephan drew the start, lasting four-plus innings with six hits, three runs, a walk and four strikeouts. Stephan’s heavy dose of sliders was effective, but Salt River found some success against his sinker and change.

Skylar Hales replaced Stephan after a leadoff walk in the 5th and proceeded to walk two more before settling down. A double-play grounder scored what turned out to be the winning run. Opponents whiffed on four of five swings against his mid-90s fastball. Marc Church was dominant, which is what you’d hope for given his ascent to the Majors last this season. He fanned three in two perfect innings, generating nine swinging strikes out of 13 swings.

Social
Lately, I’ve been providing social media updates at Bluesky. A good number of baseball-fixated media and other contributors have migrated to the site and are posting enough to make it worth your time if you’re into that sort of thing. Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball has created a “starter pack” of Rangers-oriented writers (14 of them, last I checked, including me) that you can follow in one click or choose individually.