Category: News and Analysis

Talk
Sean Bass, Michael Tepid, and I found quiet spaces away from our weather-marooned kids to record the year’s first Diamond Pod. Rotation, left field, a look at prospect and system rankings, much more. Links in signature.

International Signings

Texas’s major signing was Bahamian shortstop Sebastian Walcott for a report $3.2 million, accounting for roughly three quarters of a bonus pool that had been reduced by $1 million for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien the year before. More famous than Walcott, if not nearly as amply compensated, is OF Pablo Guerrero ($200k), son of Vlad. Texas also signed 25-year-old Cuban outfielder Geisel Cepeda.

International Releases

Per local reports, the Rangers released OF Bayron Lora, the marquee signing from the 2019-2020 period. Lora received a $3.9 million bonus, higher than for all but three players outside of Japan and Korea. In early 2021, he was the driver in an auto accident that resulted in injuries to himself and the death of one passenger. He didn’t come stateside or play anywhere in 2022, and now we know why: a two-year suspension related to allegations of domestic violence.

Even ignoring all that, Lora’s brief professional career was disconcerting. Reviews were polarized from the get-go, with all acknowledging his massive power potential but many skeptical of his likelihood of achieving it. Lora batted .218/.431/.401 in 2021’s Dominican Summer League, superficially productive but with many more walks than hits and a 38% strikeout rate. Not that DSL stats are trustworthy, but my analysis of a dozen or so years of batter data revealed exactly zero successful big-leaguers who’d struck out that often at that level.

It’s not uncommon for international prospects of his stature to lose luster quickly. The nature of the system, in which players are scouted and unofficially signed at such a young age, practically guarantees early flameouts. Indeed, of the five highest paid international signings of 2019-2020, only one currently ranks among his organization’s top ten prospects: Jasson Dominguez of the Yankees. Unlike Lora, however, the rest are at least employed.

Minor Transactions

Back with the Rangers: LHP Lucas Jacobsen, RHP Jean Casanova, RHP Scott Engler, RHP Fern Ozuna, RHP Nick Snyder, C David Garcia, OF Sandro Fabian, OF Elier Hernandez, OF Josh Sale.

Among Texas’s minor league free agents, I had Jacobsen, Engler and Garcia atop a mental list of who I’d like to see return, so thanks to the Rangers for thinking of me. Engler is recovering from TJ surgery but should be available for a majority of the season assuming a typical recovery.

New to the organization: LHP Danny Duffy, RHP Kyle Funkhouser, RHP Jacob Barnes, RHP Ian Kennedy, RHP Zack Littell, RHP Reyes Moronta, C Sandy Leon, 1B Yoshi Tsutsugo, OF Jackson (fka Clint) Frazier, OF Travis Jankowski.

Kennedy hasn’t pitched that well since being traded by the Rangers in July 2021: 20 saves also but 18 homers and 110 runners in 74.1 innings. The Royals traded Duffy to the Dodgers mid-2021, but he’s pitched only a handful of minor league innings since then because of a flexor tendon injury. In the Majors, he’s worked almost exclusively as a starter. Known best as a 4th outfielder with the Padres, Jankowski has bounced around four organizations in the past three years. A top-100 prospect for several years, the 28-year-old Frazier has struggled to reach his potential. The Yankees and Cubs have outrighted him the past two seasons.

Some Texas minor league free agents signed to deals elsewhere: RHP Demarcus Evans (Yankees), LHP James Jones (Dodgers), RHP Ryder Ryan (Seattle), C/1B Yohel Pozo (Oakland), C Meibrys Viloria (Guardians).

And more signings by former Rangers: OF Willie Calhoun (Yankees), 1B/P(?) Ronald Guzman (Giants), OF Nomar Mazara (O’s), RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez (Marlins), IF Hanser Alberto (White Sox), RHP Robbie Erlin (Dodgers), RHP Joe Wieland (A’s), RHP Reed Garrett (O’s), RHP Wilmer Font (Pads), LHP Alex Claudio (Brewers), 1B Curtis Terry (O’s), LHP Locke St. John (Twins).

RHP AJ Alexy was traded to the Twins after being designated for assignment by Washington. Then, the White Sox claimed him on waivers. IF Yonny Hernandez was traded to the Dodgers after Oakland DFA’ed him. The Giants traded outrighted OF Steele Walker to Detroit for cash.

Winter Ball

RHP Grant Anderson, Cangrejeros de Saturce (PR) – In 19 innings across 14 appearances, Anderson fanned 24 (38% rate) against just three walks with just two runs allowed. Anderson received more attention as a potential 40 addition / Rule 5 loss than I envisioned, but he remains a Ranger and will try to crack the Rangers’ bullpen during 2023.

OF Angel Aponte, Leones del Caracas (VEN) — .238/.304/.333 in 16 regular-season games, .333/.385/.500 with two doubles and a triple in nine postseason games. Caracas made the Serie Del Caribe which is being hosted in that very city, but Aponte isn’t on the current roster.

OF Jax Biggers, Auckland Tuatara (AUS) – Playing entirely in the outfield, Biggers batted .278/.390/.313 with 21 walks and seven steals in 34 regular season games. He added three singles and a double in three postseason games, but his Tuatara were eliminated in the semifinals.

Tuatara are indigenous only to New Zealand, and despite the resemblance, they are not lizards. Thank you, Wikipedia.

1B Blaine Crim, Indios de Mayaguez (PR) – Crim joined at the end of the regular season and was hitless in eight trips to the plate. In the postseason, Crim batted .217/.308/.370 with one memorable homer that sent his squad to the league finals. Mayaguez won again to reach Serie del Caribe in Caracas, but like Aponte, Crim’s winter excursion is over.

IF Ezequiel Duran, Aguilas Cibaenas (DR) – .255/.283/.431 with two homers, three doubles and a steal in 13 games. Starts in left (5), right (3), second (2), third (2), and center (1).

RHP Josh Gessner, Auckland Tuatara (AUS) – Gessner enjoyed the southern hemisphere less than his two Texas teammates, surrendering six runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings while fanning six. Gessner did not appear in the postseason.

OF Abi Ortiz, Gigantes de Carolina (PR) – Ortiz played only twice but delivered, collecting a single, double, and walk in five plate appearances.

IF Keyber Rodriguez, Auckland Tuatara (AUS) — .265/.289/.434 with five homers, six other extra-base hits, and six steals in 34 games, mostly at short. Rodriguez added five singles and a walk during the three-game playoff.

IF Chris Seise, Cangrejeros de Saturce (PR) – Seise batted .158/.179/.211 in 16 games. In addition to his usual shortstop, Seise started one game and third and another in center.

OF Kellen Strahm, Cangrejeros de Saturce (PR) – A teammate of Seise, the outfielder hit .180/.317/.200 with seven walks in 17 games.

Podcast

Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid of Lone Star Ball and I chatted this morning. Links in signature.

Rule 5

The Rangers lost 2018 4th-round righty Mason Englert to Detroit with the fifth pick of the Rule 5 draft.

Texas protected six at the 40-man deadline. Englert was seventh of 19 I mentioned in my November preview. What I wrote at the time: “I liked what I saw of Englert in person back in May, but he wasn’t on my crowded list of potential 40-man additions at the time. 13 consecutive no-hit innings and a promotion to AA later, he’s on my list. My potential list, not the final list. Englert has better control than most of his peers and a decent repertoire. A tough call. I’m leaning no, but he’s in a group of five or six pitchers in which I expect at least one to be added.”

An unfortunate (albeit perhaps temporary) loss for Texas. Englert is a well-rounded, genuine rotation candidate but doesn’t throw especially hard, has scant experience above high-A, and doesn’t seem the type you’d just toss into the bullpen, all reasons I thought his selection would be unlikely, if not remote. Best wishes to him.

Baseball America’s exhaustive Rule 5 preview mentioned four Rangers led by Antoine Kelly, the talented but erratic righty acquired in July for Matt Bush. Next on its initial list was a surprise to me in the form of reliever Grant Anderson, who I like but not enough to have mentioned in last month’s preview. Later, BA added 1B Blaine Crim and Englert. MLB.com’s shorter preview didn’t include any Rangers.

The Rangers declined to make a selection in the minor league phase of the draft, although they had room on their AAA reserve roster. They lost three, starting with high-A catcher Randy Florentino to the Orioles. Once fairly well regarded, Florentino’s bat didn’t make the trip with him from the Dominican Republic, although he hit better last year (.242/.332/.353). Next, the Dodgers nabbed OF Josh Stowers, acquired by Texas as part of the Rougned Odor trade. Stowers posted a 20/20 season in 2021 (.220/.311/.466) but traded half his homers for doubles last season (.222/.331/.374). Finally, the Twins selected righty swingman Seth Nordlin (2017, 13th round), who’d pitched effectively in a swing role for Frisco. Of the three, only Nordlin I half-expected to have been protected on the AAA reserve roster.

Draft

Texas was among the lucky contestants in the inaugural draft lottery instituted in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. To dissuade tanking, finishing with the worst record no longer guarantees the top pick in the draft, and every non-playoff team has a shot, from the 1-in-6 chances of Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh, to the 1-in-500 chance of Milwaukee. Texas had a 5.5% likelihood at the first-overall pick, slightly better odds than being dealt a blackjack from a fresh deck. The Rangers weren’t that lucky but managed to acquire the fourth pick despite the seventh-worst record. The Twins were the evening’s big winner, winning the fifth slot despite the 13th-worst record. Conversely, the A’s will pick two spots after the Rangers in 2023 despite their 102-loss season.

Critically, Texas’s draft pool money will increase as well. In 2022, the difference between the fourth and seventh picks was just shy of $1.3 million. That money may simply go to whoever Texas picks in that spot, but maybe some could be employed to coerce a later pick to forego college.

In the second and subsequent rounds, the draft order for non-playoff teams like the Rangers reverts to the old win-percentage method.

Baseball America already has a 2023 mock draft, placing Grand Canyon University SS Jacob Wilson wi the Rangers. If Texas wants a third consecutive Commodore, the choice would be OF Enrique Bradfield.

DeGrom / Heaney

For all the talk of Jake deGrom’s scary injury history, he’s actually thrown the 12th-most innings in baseball during the past nine seasons. (And struck out the third-most batters and accumulated the second-most wins above replacement.) Obviously, the recent history matters most, and I’m not remotely suggesting we should expect durability, but it’s not as though his entire career has been a struggle to stay on the field.

And when he’s on the field, well… sorry, had to dab the sweat off my forehead. 100th percentile SO rate, 99th percentile walk rate, 99th percentile fastball velocity, 97th percentile fastball spin, 93 MPH slider. deGrom has averaged 4.6 WAR per 150 innings. What popped into my head when I heard the news was something I wrote about Pudge Rodriguez back in my fantasy-writing days for ESPN. He’d missed roughly 100 games across 2000-2001, and estimating his draft value was a daunting task. My thought then was that 400 at-bats from Pudge plus 200 from a waiver-wire catcher was worth more than just about any other catcher. I think the same applies here. 120 innings (hopefully) from deGrom plus 60 from whoever’s pitching best in Round Rock (one of the Coles, perhaps) is more valuable than full seasons from most other starters.

Honestly, deGrom might pitch more innings than Andrew Heaney, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016, has dealt with subsequent elbow trouble, and missed much of 2022 with shoulder trouble. Last year, Heaney ditched 100% of his curves and most of his changeups for a murderous slider that drew air in 44% of opposition swings. He remained extremely homer-prone, especially against righties. Globe Life will help some in that regard, but it isn’t the old Yankee Stadium with a 460’ deep left-center.  

For now, the Texas pitchers who faced the second-most (Dunning) and third-most (Otto) opposing batters in 2022 appear to be outside the starting five. Given the risks of deGrom and Heaney, and of pitchers in general for that matter, Dunning might see little to no decline from last year’s 153 innings. As for Otto, how about a Taylor Hearn-like role?

Other News

RHP Nick Snyder became a free agent when the Rangers declined to offer him a contract. I’d noticed that when Texas churned through its minor league reserves down the stretch, Snyder was the only 40-man member with MLB experience not to get the call.

LHP Lucas Jacobsen topped my list of minor league free agents I’d like to return. The Rangers agreed, re-signing him last week.

RHP Drew Strotman remained a Giant after clearing waivers and briefly becoming a free agent. Earlier in 2022, The Rangers has previously claimed him off waivers from Minnesota and then tried to pass him through themselves.

Cleveland signed catcher Meibrys Viloria to a minor league deal.

Baltimore, as required by law, signed OF Nomar Mazara to a minor league deal.

Sean Bass, Michael Tepid and I should have a new podcast up later this afternoon. Links in signature.

40-Man Additions

The Rangers added six players to the 40-Man roster yesterday:

RHP Owen White
IF Luisangel Acuna
IF Dustin Harris
RHP Cole Winn
IF Jonathan Ornelas
RHP Zak Kent

I feel good about my thought process yesterday, if I may say so. Four sure things, a belief that Ornelas seemed the type to be picked if unprotected, and “a group of five or six pitchers in which I expect at least one to be added.” I improved on 2021, when Texas selected only three of the six I expected, omitting OF Bubba Thompson and lefties Cole Ragans and Jake Latz.

Winn, White, and Ornelas are Texas’s top three picks from 2018. Kent is a 9th-rounder from 2019. Harris was acquired with OF Marcus Smith for Mike Minor in 2020, and Acuna was an international free agent.

Available in the Rule 5 draft will be RHP Mason Englert, RHP Antoine Kelly, RHP Avery Weems, LHP Cody Bradford, and 1B Blaine Crim, among others. If any of these names concern you, at least know that they’ll have plenty of company. This MLB Pipeline article shows which top-30 prospects were selected and omitted from every team. 177 top-30 prospects were eligible, but only 78 were selected, leaving 99 top-30 names on the market. Another 35 protected players weren’t in a top 30. Beauty lies in the eye.

Entering yesterday, ten clubs had full rosters, meaning they couldn’t add anybody without jettisoning someone else. The median number of available slots per team was three. Texas, with six open slots, was an outlier.

Here

Lefty Martin Perez accepted Texas’s qualifying offer and will be paid the handsome sum of $19.65 million in 2023. I saw some nationally-oriented writers gobsmacked at the idea of extending that offer to him, and I get it. Perez could very easily devolve to an earlier version of himself, meaning a 150-or-so innings with a 4.75 ERA. Texas could scrounge that up on the open market for much cheaper, and in no universe would Perez get $19 million per year as a free agent. On the other hand, whew, you saw Texas’s rotation last year, right? Plus, the Rangers have several prospects who could help in the not-too-distant future, but nobody in April. The situation is such that Perez’s innings just might be that valuable. An overpay, yes, but just for one year, and not a big deal unless it restrains spending elsewhere.

Texas also traded reliever Dennis Santana to Atlanta for cash.

Elsewhere

Tampa Bay protected IF Osleivis Basabe but declined to protect OF Heriberto Hernandez. Both were part of Texas’s trade for Nathaniel Lowe. Basabe had a whale of a season, reaching AA and batting .333/.399/.461 as 21-year-old. Hernandez, 23 in December, spent the entire season in high-A and hit .255/.368/.499 with 24 homers in 119 games.

I neglected to mention that Hans Crouse’s 40-man spot is now occupied by RHP Luis Ortiz, Texas’s 1st-rounder from 2014 and a reliever in Round Rock last year. Ortiz moved on to the Giants in 2022 and returned the Majors in September.

RHP Matt Bush was so-so for Milwaukee after being traded: 4.30 ERA, 29 strikeouts and 16 hits including six homers in 23 innings. Hard to hit, but hit hard. Now 36, he remains arbitration-eligible.

OF Steele Walker was outrighted by San Francisco in August. He struggled in Sacto: .247/.287/.393. Yesterday, the Giants traded him to Detroit for cash.

OF Willie Calhoun was outrighted in mid-September and became a free agent last month.

OF Zach Reks batted .330/.410/.495 for Lotte in Korea.

I’d mentioned Ronny Henriquez’s MLB debut last month. After that first, rough outing, he allowed a lone run and struck out seven in 7.2 innings divided across two appearances.

To my knowledge, relievers Garrett Richards and Spencer Patton haven’t signed anywhere since being released in-season. Nor has Greg Holland, released back in April.

OF Lewis Brinson was traded from Houston’s AAA affiliate to San Francisco in late August, batted .167/.211/.472 in 16 games as a Giant, and became a free agent.

SanDiego released OF Nomar Mazara in August. Minnesota released 1B Curtis Terry in August.

More minor league free agents: LHP C.D. Pelham, RHP Tyler Ferguson, RHP Ronald Herrera, RHP Ariel Jurado, RHP Keone Kela, RHP Pedro Payano, RHP Connor Sadzeck, RHP Collin Wiles, C Tomas Telis, IF Michael de Leon, IF Ti’Quan Forbes, OF Delino DeShields Jr.

40-Man Maneuvers

Activated from the 60-day Injured List were RHP Josh Sborz, C Mitch Garver, IF/OF Brad Miller, and OF Eli White. Also on the 60 but traded to Cincinnati for cash was OF Nick Solak. Solak batted .252/.327/.372 as a Ranger, not bad in and of itself but not up to par when combined with positional flexibility that lacked plus defense anywhere.

Texas also lost four on waiver claims late last week: C Meibrys Viloria (SFO), RHP Drew Strotman (SFO), IF Andy Ibanez (DET), and RHP Tyson Miller (MIL). Such interest in the back end of the roster of a 68-94 team is surprising, but on the other hand, some or all could be re-run through waivers in the not-too-distant future.

As I’m sure you saw, Texas traded LHP Kolby Allard to his former home of Atlanta for RHP Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi is owed $12.5 million in 2023, but Atlanta shoved a $10 million check made out to Ray Davis in Odorizzi’s pocket. He hasn’t been good since 2019 and probably won’t be next year, but hopefully he can provide 120-130 acceptable innings. Given the condition of the rotation at present, that’s valuable. Also, Allard probably wasn’t long for the 40-man roster, so Texas acquired Odorizzi for someone who had at best a depth role with the Rangers in 2023. Not a bad bit of business.

Texas declined the option on OF Kole Calhoun. RHP Jesus Tinoco was outrighted. Both became free agents. LHPs Matt Moore and Martin Perez, C Kevin Plawecki, and IF Charlie Culberson are also free agents.

All said, Texas’s 40-man roster stands at 34 in anticipation of Tuesday’s roster deadline preceding the Rule 5 draft in early December. I wasn’t expecting the annual roster crunch to be especially crunchy this year, and that seems to be proving the case. Texas had, and to some degree still has, a good number of players whom you wouldn’t mind having around but aren’t likely to be more than depth on next year’s squad. I feel the Rangers can add to the 40 whoever they see fit without worrying too much about crowding. They’ll have to clear room for free agents, of course.

40-Man Additions?

Eligible is everyone not already on the 40 who signed prior to late-August 2018, plus those 19 or older who signed prior to late-August 2019. I count 60 eligible players (see my Rule 5 tab here), although I’m sure I’m off by a few.

RHP Owen White – Yes

IF Luisangel Acuna – Yup

IF Dustin Harris – Yes… if not with quite the assuredness of White or Acuna. Harris had a nice year but didn’t match his awe-inspiring 2021, and an injury limited him to 85 games. Still, he spent most of the year in AA as a 22-year-old and was playing outfield for the first time.

RHP Cole Winn – Yes, despite everything. Imagine another club grabbing him from the pitching-deprived Rangers and “fixing” him next March. It’s too gruesome to contemplate. His stuff remains solid, and if he can iron out the mechanical wrinkles, which he’s done before, he’ll soon be contending for an MLB rotation spot.

IF Jonathan Ornelas – The thought of Ornelas facing MLB pitching next April doesn’t inspire confidence quite yet, but he sure seems like the type who’d get swiped and hang on in a utility role. A contact-oriented bat, some power, some speed, positional flexibility including proficiency at short and center that extends beyond “he can play there if he has to.”

RHP Mason Englert – I liked what I saw of Englert in person back in May, but he wasn’t on my crowded list of potential 40-man additions at the time. 13 consecutive no-hit innings and a promotion to AA later, he’s on my list. My potential list, not the final list. Englert has better control than most of his peers and a decent repertoire. A tough call. I’m leaning no, but he’s in a group of five or six pitchers in which I expect at least one to be added.

LHP Cody Bradford – Not the last guy on this list, but the last I wrote up, because… I don’t know. At his best, Bradford is as unhittable as anyone in the system. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, he was the Frisco’s ace. Bradford’s velocity is deficient by modern standards, but he’s out there pinpointing while many his peers are still struggling with basic control. Could he avoid enough damage on balls in play to fill out a rotation? Work the 5th and 6th after the starter handles the first two times through the order? Maybe. Maybe.

RHP Avery Weems – Tempting. A hard-throwing lefty with a mean slider, better control than I had in mind when reviewing his stats. He’s started most of his career, but I’m inclined to forecast him as a reliever. I lean against adding a reliever who isn’t ready to contribute to the big-league club almost immediately unless he’s clearly of the closer variety. 40-man space is too dear.

RHP Zak Kent – Like Bradford, Kent began the season alarmingly poorly, then regained and surpassed his former stature as the season progressed. I was impressed by his AAA debut, when he succeeded despite having temporarily left his solid slider back in Frisco. He looked like a starter, not a reliever-in-waiting, and more inclined to hit his spots and live with contact rather than trying to bury everyone. Yet another who I don’t have a strong feeling for but could see being added.

RHP Ryan Garcia – Finally active after an eternity on the shelf, Texas’s second-round pick from 2019 pitched well and reached high-A late in the season. I doubt he’s picked, but continued progress could put him on the list in a year.

RHP Antoine Kelly – Seemingly a lock when acquired for reliever Matt Bush in July. Why add a Rule 5-eligible prospect if not to protect him? Perhaps the Rangers thought the same, but Kelly’s already iffy control worsened considerably as a Ranger.

RHP Daniel Robert – Occasionally untouchable with his fastball reaching 98 and a sweeping slider, Robert would look better than half the MLB bullpen one outing and struggle to retire anyone the next. From June onwards, opponents batted only .184/.308/.245, but his ERA was 5.86 because the bad nights were bad indeed. Saying a reliever needs to be more consistent sounds like lazy analysis, I’ll admit, but the upper minors are positively clogged with eye-catching relievers nowadays. The ones who reach and stay in the Majors have set themselves apart with consistency. Whether or not Texas protects him, the Rule 5 draft will feature plenty of Robert-like pitchers.

IF Blaine Crim – Crim just hits: .305/.368/.519, 60 doubles, 61 homers in 295 minor league games. Is it enough? The bar for first basemen is so, so high. Unfortunately, the one place Crim didn’t hit was AAA Round Rock — .278/.298/.296 with underwhelming Statcast data – but Crim has always been streaky, and he was there for only 13 games. He strikes me as someone more likely to force the issue in-season than to get a spot now.  

LHP Grant Wolfram – Earned a trip to Arizona this fall and pitched well in the desert. Wolfram switched to relief in AA, continued to miss bats, and kept the ball in the part much better than at Hickory, but his control tumbled to a combined 18% BB/HBP rate.

IF Davis Wendzel – Like fellow Big Twelver Josh Jung, Wendzel played up the middle a fair amount in college. Unlike Jung, Wendzel appears to have some genuine positional flexibility,  and he flexed substantial power late in the season. Unfortunately, nearly 40% of his plate appearances ended with a strikeout or popup. He’s also missed more time to injury than Jung, which is saying something. Maybe next year.

OF Kellen Strahm – Strahm batted .314/.417/.482 from June onwards after a poor start. He has a real shot, but I think the likely scenario is standing out in Round Rock when the parent club has need for an outfielder.

OF Jayce Easley – Easley had a terrific fall in Arizona (.375/.556/.583) while playing everywhere but first and catcher, somewhat belying his regular season stats (.230/.372/.345) and nearly complete absence from the infield the past two years. A future, perhaps, but 2023 is too soon.

IF Chris Seise – The former first-rounder thankfully made it through the season in one piece, but he won’t be added.

Minor League Free Agents

Another 25 Rangers minor leaguers became free agents late last week, mostly by accruing enough service time. A rundown of some:

RHP Jean Casanova – Much more promising than his 35th-round status would suggest, Casanova missed all of 2022 to an elbow injury and tossed only 52 innings the last four seasons.

RHP Scott Engler – Deep repertoire for a reliever, reached AAA until felled by a torn elbow ligament. Has a shot.

RHP Demarcus Evans – Among the most dominant minor league relievers I’ve covered, wiping out batters with a high-spin fastball and hammer curve. As he reached the Majors, his velocity declined, and incorporation of a cutter/slider didn’t help. He could make it back, but it won’t be easy if he’s still throwing 91.

RHP Kelvin Gonzalez – Low-A Hickory’s relief ace during 2019’s deep playoff run. Reached the upper 90s then but missed 2021 with elbow surgery and didn’t pitch much last season.  

RHP Kevin Gowdy – Part of the Kyle Gibson / Ian Kennedy trade. A 9.90 ERA with matching peripherals in 40 AA innings in 2022.

LHP Lucas Jacobsen – Injuries, covid, and an eternity in the lower levels left me totally ignorant about Jacobsen entering 2022. He immediately impressed with a nice outing during Jack Leiter’s pro debut, and after missing yet more time, he fanned 20 in 14.2 innings in AAA. If I had the power to unilaterally renew one free agent’s contract, it would probably be his. Perhaps David Garcia.

RHP James Jones – Seven (!) years in the organization following the Leonys Martin trade. The converted outfielder’s fastball velocity has ranged from 90 to 100.

RHP Fernery Ozuna – Lost a few tics on the fastball but compensated with a often staggering changeup. His walk rate quintupled upon promotion to AAA Round Rock.

RHP Ryder Ryan — Ryan delivers mid-90s with ease plus an occasionally impressive slider. Righties have batted only .204/.290/.358 with a 30% K rate against him the past two seasons in Round Rock, while lefties have clubbed .315/.416/.545.

C David Garcia – Garcia lacks the required seven years of service time but had already reached free agency after 2021 when released and re-signed. He became the exemplar of “not at all ready for MLB but not worth losing” when added to the 40-man roster despite no full-season experience after 2019. Still just 22, Garcia’s bat has yet to warm to AA pitching, but I wouldn’t count him out yet. Catchers take time.

C Yohel Pozo – Pozo once again hit AAA pitching with comical ease, albeit with less power than in 2022. He also got, well, kind of big over the previous winter, although I don’t know how much that mattered since he almost exclusively DH’ed during his 2021 stint in Arlington.  

IF Sherten Apostel – Injuries limited Apostel to 87 games the past two years, he’s pretty much a 1B now, and his impressive power is undermined by a huge miss rate.

OF Miguel Aparicio – Briefly a top ten prospect, Aparicio spent an eternity in Hickory before finally breaking out in 2021, but success in Frisco eluded him.

OF Josh Sale — Sale batted .229/.343/.420 in 72 games with Round Rock, exceptional for a 30-year-old out of affiliated ball for eight years but not enough to warrant a 40 spot.

Arizona Fall League

The season ended Saturday with a victory in the championship game by Surprise. IF Luisangel Acuna, OF Trevor Hauver, and RHP Grant Wolfram had the honor of playing both on Saturday and in Frisco’s Texas League championship-clinching victory in late September. Down East OF Jayce Easley was Surprise’s RF and leadoff hitter Saturday. RHPs Daniel Robert, Kumar Rocker, and Nick Starr, C Cody Freeman, and OF Aaron Zavala appeared for Surprise during the season but didn’t play Saturday.

Acuna made a game-saving catch-and-throw in the bottom of the 9th. More on the AFL later.

Elsewhere

Tampa Bay hired Jon Daniels as a senior advisor. You may recall Daniels as the former general manager and then president of baseball operations for the Texas Rangers.

Philadelphia designated righty Hans Crouse for assignment and successfully ran him through waivers. Texas’s 2017 second-rounder quickly reached the Majors after being traded along with Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy, but he spent much of 2022 injured and didn’t pitch well in AAA.

Oakland claimed former Texas IF Yonny Hernandez on waivers and designated former Texas minor leaguer RHP Collin Wiles.

Our long national nightmare is over: Josh Jung will become a Major Leaguer tonight. He (hopefully) concluded in minor league career with a double to center Wednesday afternoon. In 23 AAA games, Jung batted .273/.321/.525 with six homers and seven doubles. I dove into the Statcast data for good and bad signs. Note that Jung has only 106 plate appearances, so sample-size issues apply.

Good: He hits hard.

Jung’s average exit velocity of 89.5 MPH ranks near the 60th percentile for MLB hitters, and his hard-hit rate (95+ MPH) of 44.9% is around the 75% percentile. Also, this isn’t a Willie Calhoun situation of too many grounders resulting in a depressed and depressing slash line. His rate of grounders is below average.  (Popups, too.)

As you’ve surely heard by now, the opposite-field line-driving Jung of Texas Tech is no more. By my count, about one of every seven balls off Jung’s bat has been either a surefire homer or had a decent chance of becoming one. That’s double the rate of his teammates and opponents in AAA, and he’s hitting 1.000 with a 60% homer rate on those balls.

Good: He doesn’t have trouble with breaking stuff (sort of).

Jung is hitting .419 and slugging .903 when he puts a fastball (including sinkers) in play, and a very respectable .368 with a .632 slugging percentage on non-fastballs. Overall, he’s hitting .295/.340/.636 on plate appearances that conclude with a fastball and .255/.305/.436 on other pitches.

His average exit velocity and strikeout rates on fastballs versus non-fastballs are nearly identical, and his swinging strike rate is lower on bendy stuff and changeups. That said, nearly all of the non-fastball success is against sliders (.455/.455/.864 in 28 plate appearances), while he’s still looking for his first hit against a curve in eight at-bats and is hitting .176 against changes.

Only 43% of the pitches thrown to him have been fastballs, so he’s not going to be caught off guard by pitchers with deep arsenals.

Not So Good: Swings and Takes.

Usually, there’s an inverse relationship between a player’s swing rate and how often pitches taken are called balls. Cautious hitters will accept more borderline calls in search of the pitch they want, while swing-happy types will hack away, leaving only the most obviously errant pitches alone. Jung is an anomaly. In AAA, he swung at 52% of opposing pitches compared to the team rate of 47%, but the percentage of taken pitches called balls was only 65% compared to the team rate of 70%.

Similarly, Jung has a swinging strike rate of 15% of all pitches and 29% of swings, both about 3% higher than the team average. His swinging strike rate of 20% on four-seam fastballs is double the team rate. This is the background of his 4% walk rate and 28% strikeout rate in AAA, both on the wrong side of average. Based on this data, his noisy hit tools have compensated for some occasionally iffy pitch selection.

Jung drew two walks in his first AAA game. Since then, just two more in 101 trips to the plate. His overall walk rate as a pro is a 8.2%, slightly below average.

Comps

I don’t do comps. Not if I can help it. But I did run a list of players who most closely matched Jung’s average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, “sweet-spot” rate (launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees), and average launch angle. I’m not claiming this list has has predictive power, but i thought it was interesting:

Joey Bart: .228/.312/.398, 99 OPS+
Carlos Correa: .271/.352/.439, 129 OPS+
Josh Donaldson: .220/.309/.375, 95 OPS+
Nick Gordon: .275/.319/.427, 114 OPS+
Jose Miranda: .273/.327/.448, 123 OPS+
David Peralta: .255/.320/.441, 112 OPS+
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: .254/.325/.535, 138 OPS+
Tyler O’Neill: .225/.301/.384, 97 OPS+
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: .291/.343/.400, 113 OPS+
Brandon Drury: .262/.319/.496, 92 OPS+
AVERAGE: .255/.323/.434, 111 OPS+

The middle OBP stat is partly dependent on walks, which in Jung’s case are lacking, but on the whole, this is… pretty good? Not outstanding, not team-carrying, but good. Of course, hitting like this will require Jung to maintain his current batted-ball stats against much tougher opposition than he’s seen in AAA. No small task.

Thoughts

Texas has a total of 2.7 wins above replacement from its third basemen since Adrian Beltre’s retirement, and very little of that has come from hitting. I’m confident Jung will change that equation, but I’m not expecting Jung to set the world on fire in September, and not necessarily in future years either. I’m just hoping for a solid everyday player. That would be delightful.

Draft, Day 2
Round 4. RHP Brock Porter (Age 19, 6’4″, 210 pounds, Michigan) — Porter was ranked the 12th-best draft prospect by Baseball America, 11th by MLB.com, and 14th by FanGraphs.com. All had Porter going 11th or 12th overall and as the first or second pitcher off the board. Once he slid past the #11 Mets (who halted catcher Kevin Parada’s slide) and Tigers (Josh’s brother Jace), no one called his name. That very night, Twitter and message boards were rife with the idea of Texas grabbing Porter and luring him with the savings from Kumar Rocker’s presumed under-slot deal. Swell idea, but the Rangers had to wait out another 28 picks. Everyone else passed again, so Porter is a Ranger, pending doctor’s approval and an agreeable bonus.

Conceivably, Texas drafted both the best college and high school pitcher in the draft. An astonishing feat. Porter offers a mid-90s fastball, an uncommonly good changeup (especially for a high schooler), an improved but still work-in-progress slider, and a curve that lags behind the rest. Descriptions of his delivery suggest simultaneous violence and fluidity.

5. SS Chandler Pollard (18, 6’2″, 175, Georgia) — Ranked 112 by BA, 110 by MLB.com. Great speed, good arm, so-so bat, looks skinnier than his listed 175, has a quirky swing wherein the rest of his body hesitates to complete the motion once he plants his front foot.

6. OF Tommy Specht (18, 6’3″, 200, Iowa) — Ranked 229 by BA. Specht turned 18 only three weeks ago but is filled out more like a college player and has a decent all-around tool set with some upside. He attended the same high school as Down East catcher Ian Moller and also left early. Specht played for the Clinton LumberKings, Texas’s bygone low-A affiliate that found a home in the Prospect League after losing affiliated status.

7. RHP Luis Ramirez (21, 6’2″, 200, Long Beach St.) — Ranked 118 BA, 143 by MLB.com. A shoulder problem limited him to seven starts (2.14 ERA, 11 BB, 38 SO in 33.2 IP) and apparently dropped him three or four rounds. Ramirez deals a low-90s sinker, slider and change.

8. RHP Matt Brosky (22, 5’10”, 190, Youngstown St.) — I’ve seen him listed as a senior on MLB’s draft tracker and a junior by his own school. I think he’s a fourth-year junior but don’t quote me. It may be a distinction without a difference, as I assume he’ll be the first of three straight picks Texas will try to sign for a relative pittance to divert pool money to Porter. Keep in mind that anybody offered an under-slot deal actually needs to sign in order for Texas to achieve this goal. The slot money for unsigned players is deducted from the total pool.

9. SS Griffin Cheney (23, 5’11”, 185, Georgia State) — Definitely a fifth-year senior and owner of a gaudy .350/.445/.640 line with 16 homers and 12 steals in 53 games. Cheney also has substantial experience at third and second.

10.  OF Josh Hatcher (23, 6’2″, 200, Kennesaw St.) — Another senior. Hatcher was a teammate of Justin Foscue at Mississippi State and batted .321/.379/.500 as a sophomore in 2019. After a rough 2021, Hatcher transferred to Kennesaw State, where he improved .391/.452/.667 with 15 homers in 64 games in an admittedly easier conference. He played center for Kennesaw State, mostly first and COF for MSU.

Do the Rangers have the money to sign Porter? Texas’s pool is $9,640,700. $5.2 million for Kumar Rocker leaves $4,440,700 for everyone else. Assume picks 8-10 sign for $10,000 each, and picks 5-7 sign for slot. That sums to $6,207,200, leaving $3,433,500 for Porter, roughly equivalent to slot for the draft’s 20th pick. Clubs can also exceed their pool by up to 5% with a 75% tax on the overage. That gives Texas another $482,035 and boosts a potential bonus for Porter up to $3,915,535, or 16th-pick money. Per Levi Weaver of The Athletic, the expected bonus for Weaver is $3.7 million. Voila.

MLB terminated the 2020-2021 rule limiting bonuses for undrafted free agents to $20,000. Those players can now sign for any amount, but anything over $125,000 counts against the pool. As the draft is now 20 rounds instead of 40, a number of players now have some say in choosing their employer and could negotiate a little larger bonus. (Not all 600 who would’ve been drafted in the past, but some.) What a world. Do these players actually make any extra money? The circumstances aren’t identical, but during 2017-2019, Texas paid bonuses exceeding $20,000 to 18 players drafted in Rounds 21-40, topped by pitcher Michael Brewer’s $375,000.

Rookie Recap: Games of 11-16 JulyScores: 11-8 (M’s), 10-4 (White Sox), 5-4 (White Sox), 7-5 (Pads), 6-4 (Royals)
Record: 23-7, 8 G up

RHP Adrian Rodriguez (21): 4.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, BB, 6 SO, 4.15 ERA
RHP Alberto Mota (19): 3.0 IP, 3 H, 6 SO, 0.61 ERA
LHP Josue Rodriguez (19): 2.0 IP, 2 H, BB, HBP, 4 SO, 7.04 ERA
RHP Aidan Curry (20): 4.1 IP, 6 H (HR), 4 R, BB, 6 SO, 3.80 ERA

OF Yeison Morrobel (18): 7-13, 2B, HR (1), 3 BB, .341/.424/.459
IF Gleider Figuereo (18): 6-16, 2 2B, HR (5), BB, SB (6), .286/.402/.671
OF Anthony Gutierrez (17) : 4-16, 2 2B, HR (1), HBP, SB (1), .250/.294/.563
IF Danyer Cueva (18): 5-17, HR (2), .348/.400/.489
OF JoJo Blackmon (19): 2-12, 3B, 4 BB, 3 SB (10), .274/.419/.536

The Rangers have won 13 straight.

Young Anthony Gutierrez is off to a nice start. Down 5-4 in the 6th of a seven-inning game on Friday, Danyer Cueva hit a tying solo homer, and Gutierrez capped the scoring in the 7th with his first homer.

Gleider Figuereo’s .671 slugging percentage leads the league by far, and his 1.073 OPS would also lead if not for 24-year-old Cuba Bess, who plays for Colorado (of course). Figuereo has four doubles, four triples, and five homers in 20 games.

Winning
These are developmental leagues. Rosters aren’t constructed and games aren’t managed to win. Good prospects aren’t going to be benched if they perform poorly. Does the prospect quality of a system correlate to its performance in the minors? Here’s a chart of every team’s organizational ranking in 2021 per Baseball America and its full-season winning percentage:

Answer: kind of but not really. One higher spot in the rankings is worth about 1.5 wins out of 490 played. The correlation is very loose, and Tampa Bay (#1 rank and record) and Washington (#30 rank, #29 record) are doing all the work. Minus them, rankings and records are almost completely independent of one another. That said, over the years, the quality of Texas’s system has correlated pretty well to its record.

Not all rankings are created equal. An organization stacked with top-100 prospects will receive high marks even if depth is lacking, but that missing depth could result in a weaker record. Even if the Rangers put Corey Seager in Low-A (a move I’d advise against), there’s only so much one guy can do.

Some organizations emphasize winning more than others. For my outsider’s perspective, my concern isn’t about winning as much as excessive losing. What I’d hate to see is a Texas version of last year’s White Sox-affiliated Kannapolis club, which lost its first ten, then 16 of the next 20, and then dropped to 46 games under .500 until an 8-1 finish. That just doesn’t seem conducive to a positive development environment.

Starters
The Rangers have often employed a six-man rotation in the minors of their own volition. Now, the rigid six-games-a-week schedule practically demands it. For viewing purposes, the advantage is that certain pitchers tend to start on a certain day on the week, and one could more easily match a park visit to that start if inclined.

The median length of a start by a Texas full-season minor leaguer in 2021 was 4.0 innings. Only 41% of starts lasted five innings or greater. Even with this limited workload, Texas wants its starters to get their innings in, so pitchers will often be allowed to press through situations that might get an MLB starter pulled. What will get a starter pulled early is excessive pitches. If the inning’s count has crept into the mid-20s with no end in sight, the bullpen will be active. Once it surpasses 30, the pitcher (especially if younger) could be gone unless the batter he’s facing makes the final out.
Relievers
Minor league relievers tend to pitch on a schedule rather than having situational roles, and the lost 2020 combined with expanded rosters (28 in AA/AAA, 30 in A ball) exacerbated that trend. Even in AAA, nominally the final training ground for the Majors, relievers usually pitch on prescribed days.  

Pitching on consecutive days, already a rarity below AAA, became exceptionally rare events in 2021. In fact, for a good many pitchers, appearing on fewer than two days rest was uncommon. On August 7 in Round Rock, I was treated to an unexpected outing by Nick Snyder. He’d pitched on the 5th, so I assumed he was unavailable that night, but he made his first appearance of the season with fewer than two day’s rest. (It was, perhaps not coincidentally, his worst outing of the season.)

32-year-old James Jones appeared back-to-back once in AAA, as did 30-year-old Buck Farmer. Round Rock’s busiest relievers, all in their 20s but far from newcomers – Jake Lemoine, Ryder Ryan and Luis Ortiz – never did.

30 Texas minor leaguers saved a game last year. None had more than eight. Teams don’t have closers, or to the extent they do, they’re more like to rely on someone who might have a lower ceiling but is the most trustworthy at that level. In the last 14 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None of them has ever subsequently saved a Major League game.

Perhaps with the lost 2020 further in the rear-view mirror, AAA will tilt slightly more toward MLB-like usage, but again, with so many relievers vying for innings, I’m not expecting much difference from last year.

Sometimes in critical situations, managers have leeway to use relievers more traditionally. Eudrys Manon, Leury Tejeda, and Destin Dotson earned the lion’s share of late/close innings in Down East’s 2021’s playoff drive. Frisco leaned heavily on 2021 draftee Chase Lee and Daniel Robert down the stretch. In fact, Robert made his first-ever no-rest appearance on the seasons’ final day. (Regretfully, he was on fumes, got lit up, and Frisco lost a division lead held the entire season to that point.)

Batting Orders
They aren’t necessarily optimized for run production and often don’t align with the relative qualities of the prospects. Don’t worry about them.

Walks and Strikeouts
Both tend to increase as you descend the organizational ladders. Walks exploded in low-A in 2021, partly because of an unscheduled year off and partly because of the automated umpiring used in the Low-A southeast. The highest six team walk rates and seven of the nine highest team strikeout rates in low-A history were set last year. Strikeouts, as you know, are at historic levels. Not that long ago, almost any pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate was noteworthy. Last year, the low-A San Jose Giants had a team rate of 31.5%. (San Jose’s home stadium has an notoriously difficult batter’s eye, but still.)

Errors and “Mistakes”
The number of miscues that give the opposition free runners or bases increases greatly at the lower levels.

If you attend an MLB game, the averaged combined walks, HBPs, errors, balks, wild pitches and passed balls you’re likely to see is nine. In low-A, it’s 14.

Running
In 2021, Low-A as a whole had 1.6 stolen base attempts per game, the most in 20 years. Down East set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. Not coincidentally, a new rule limited pitchers to two “free” pickoff attempts per batter. A third attempt that didn’t result in an out was ruled a balk. Balks increased 60% in low-A compared to 2019, but I have no idea how much of the increase is due to the rule versus tighter rule enforcement and/or generally sloppier play following an absence of games in 2020.

Field and League Context
Here’s the park-adjusted league averages for Texas’s full-season affiliates in 2021:

Round Rock: 5.5 runs per game, .259/.337/.454 slash line
Frisco: 4.9 runs, .248/.332/.398
Hickory: 5.2 runs, .243/.329/.463
Down East: 5.1 runs, .241/.343/.377

Round Rock is pitcher-friendly relative to most of its peers, but the Pacific Coast League is so hitter-oriented as a whole that even Express hitters’ stats have to be viewed with a little cynicism. Down East scored a robust 5.3 runs per game despite an ordinary .244/.344/.379 line courtesy of all those steals and opposition miscues previously mentioned.

Luck
The likelihood of a .250 batter going hitless in any particular 30 consecutive at-bats is extremely small: about 1 in 5,600. Spread that to 36 hitters*  (nine per Texas’s four full-season teams) and the likelihood that someone starts the season 0-for-30 is still tiny: about 1 in 150. But, if you take a whole season with all the hitters and a huge number of overlapping 30-at-bat subsets, there’s a decent chance somebody comes up empty for a long spell. That very thing happened to a good prospect last year, Luisangel Acuna. He brought a shiny .375 average into his fifth game and went 0-for-30 (with six walks and one HBP) over the next nine. Did he have a mechanical issue? A minor injury? Maybe. I don’t remember. Acuna fanned ten times, so 20 balls in play went for naught. Even the weakest of hitters should squeak out a few safeties in that span.

Statistical variance in baseball is much higher than most people think. It’s important not to place too much emphasis on the short run, whether good or bad.

* Of course, Texas isn’t going to stick with the same 36 minor league hitters game after game, but I’m trying to make the math easier.

Promotions
Promotions and demotions aren’t made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone else’s spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are sometimes complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than you’d like because Texas has to sort through all these issues.

Report Tone
Even in a deep system, most of Texas’s minor leaguers aren’t going to reach MLB or make much impact if they do. Texas has 26 (or 28) Major Leaguers and 200+ minor leaguers. The cold math turns most of them into “failures.”

They are not failures. They’re exceptional athletes in an industry with a limited number of jobs. If you’re the 2,000th best accountant in the country, you’re doing great, plus you can start your own business if you want. The 2,000th professional baseball player is in Double A, and he can’t start his own league to compete against MLB. Also, we can argue about the relative entertainment quality of the current high-strikeout era, but the players themselves have never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with stuff that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago.

So, I want to be honest about a player’s chances, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but I’ll cover anyone having a great day.

Texas and their affiliates announced initial minor league rosters yesterday. Here’s a quick rundown. If I don’t mention your guy, don’t worry. We’ve got a whole season in front of us, and I don’t want to use all my material in an intro.

I’ve listed top-30 prospect rankings for Baseball America (BA), MLB, and the most contrarian rankings for Baseball Prospectus (BP) and ESPN.

AAA ROUND ROCK EXPRESS

Round Rock, Texas
Pacific Coast League
Texas affiliate 2011-2018, 2021-present

Pitchers
Justin Anderson
Kohei Arihara
Jason Bahr
Hever Bueno
Jake Latz
Tyson Miller
Daniel Robert
Yerry Rodriguez (MLB 27)
Ryder Ryan
Jesus Tinoco
Nick Tropeano
Dan Winkler
Cole Winn (BA 3, MLB 3)

Cole Winn leads a group of eight faces familiar to Express fans. Winn isn’t first in line to replace a starter in Arlington if needed. He’s not any number on that depth chart. He’s just Cole Winn, prepping for an MLB debut to come when he’s ready, not when external circumstances dictate.

Rodriguez often dominated after switching to multi-inning relief late last season (perhaps not permanently, yet). A young 27, Robert doesn’t throw especially hard but spots impeccably and relies on a slider that has an invisibility cloak.

Tinoco (Rox), Tropeano (Dodgers most recently) and Winkler (Cubs) are offseason signings.

Catchers
Sam Huff (BA 11, MLB 11)
Jack Kruger
Yohel Pozo (BA 28)
Meibrys Viloria

The Rangers have seven catchers with MLB experience including these four. Keeping all probably isn’t possible, particularly assuming the parent club drops to two catchers. Catcher development requires inordinate patience, but even so, it’s a critical year for Huff, who after returning from injury didn’t catch at all and didn’t hit all that well (aside from power).

Infielders
Sherten Apostel
Ryan Dorow
Yonny Hernandez
Josh H. Smith (BA 9, MLB 7, ESPN 5)
Davis Wendzel (MLB 17)

Smith began 2021 in low-A (too low) and has only 127 plate appearances in AA. I thought he might spend a little more time in Frisco, but I wouldn’t call this assignment a surprise. Almost exclusively a shortstop professionally, Smith almost certainly won’t wear a uniform with “Rangers” on it without proficiency at other positions, so we’ll see how he’s used with the Express.

Everybody but Apostel can play second, third and short, and they probably will. Apostel dropped from the prospect rankings after an injury-plagued and so-so 2021, but he’s barely 23 and has a chance to regain ground.

Outfielders
Elier Hernandez
Zach Reks
Bubba Thompson (MLB 29)
Leody Taveras

Although omitted from the 40 last winter, Thompson had a strong 2021 that eased if not eliminated concerns about his bat. His power showed up in games, and his strikeout rate dropped from 32% to 26%.

I saw Taveras at length in 2021, and he genuine improved during his time in Round Rock, but it didn’t translate to a better showing in Arlington. He’s still just 23.

AA FRISCO ROUGHRIDERS
Frisco, Texas
Texas League
Texas affiliate since 2003

Pitchers
Grant Anderson
Cody Bradford (BA 23, MLB 20, ESPN 15)
Tim Brennan
Lucas Jacobsen
Zak Kent (BA 17, MLB 21)
Chase Lee
Jack Leiter (BA 1, MLB 1)
Seth Nordlin
Fernery Ozuna
Cole Ragans (BA 24)
Justin Slaten
Nick Starr
Tyler Thomas
Tai Tiedemann
Avery Weems (BA 18)
Grant Wolfram

Jack Leiter. Sorry, I don’t have anything to add to that. I just wanted to type his name again. He’s a Ranger.

Bradford, Kent, Ragans, Nordlin, Slaten, Weems and Wolfram combined for 95 of Hickory’s 114 starts last year. The first three finished 2021 in Frisco, and the rest are there now. Impressive to have an entire rotation graduate.

Catchers
David Garcia
Jordan Procyshen
Matt Whatley

Barely 22, Garcia earned a 40-man spot before reaching full-season ball, lost that spot last winter, immediately re-signed and now has earned a promotion to AA. His overall numbers call that into question (.261/.299/.349), but he had a better second half. Garcia has always needed time to acclimate offensively.

Whatley has the field presence and defensive chops to play in the Majors, but even catchers have to hit a little, and he hasn’t (.203/.316/.282 in AA as a 25-year-old last year).

Infielders
Diosbel Arias
Blaine Crim
Ezequiel Duran (BA 4, MLB 4)
Trey Hair
Nash Knight
Jonathan Ornelas
Nick Tanielu

Duran, the headliner of the Joey Gallo trade (although not by a large margin), has rarely played short

Crim isn’t a monster physically (no offense), is best-suited to first and doesn’t appear in anyone’s top 30 that I know of, but man, the guy can hit. Crim spent a portion of last year in Frisco and clubbed 29 homers between there and Hickory. He then lorded over Puerto Rico (.406/.452/.594) last winter.

Ornelas’s promotion is a mild surprise, as he batted .261/.310/.394 for high-A Hickory and is still just 21. He can play all over and spent nearly a third of his time in center.

Knight and Tanielu are 29 and vets of AAA. But they’re needed in AA for now.

Outfielders
Sandro Fabian
Dustin Harris (BA 5, MLB 6, ESPN 8)
Julio P. Martinez
Kellen Strahm
Josh Stowers

Harris is pointedly listed as an outfielder. In the middle of 2021 I began seeing him described as a four-corner guy, which sounded swell but didn’t jibe with his near-constant presence at first. Harris did start at third more often down the stretch and will make his debut in the grass next week. He added power (20 HR) to his already superior contact ability, vaulting him up the prospect rankings.

Strahm isn’t a kid (soon 25, a senior sign out of San Jose St.) and has played in only 101 games in three years because of injuries and covid, but he’s got a nice mix of OBP skills, speed and defense.

Stowers (part of the Odor traded) hit the 20/20 mark last year in Frisco. The 24-year-old Fabian is a minor league free agent with 15 homers at AA Richmond last year.

HIGH-A HICKORY CRAWDADS
Hickory, North Carolina
South Atlantic League
Texas affiliate since 2009

Pitchers
Ben Anderson
Marc Church
Joe Corbett
Mason Englert
Kevin Gowdy
Nick Krauth
Jesus Linarez
Eudrys Manon
John Matthews
Juan Mejia
Spencer Mraz
Triston Polley
Tekoah Roby (BA 14, MLB 15)
Josh D. Smith
Ricky Vanasco (BA 13, MLB 14)
Owen White (BA 7, MLB 8)

Based on everything I’ve heard about White lately, those rankings are going to appear conservative before long. Let’s hope so. Joining him is Englert, drafted two rounds after White in 2018 and with a similarly injury-delayed intro to pro ball. TK Roby, 2020’s 2^nd-round pick, won’t turn 21 until after the season, Vanasco, placed on the 40 with a stitched-up elbow and no full-season experience, finally gets a chance to build on his breakout 2019.  

Catchers
Randy Florentino
Cody Freeman
Scott Kapers

A converted infielder, Freeman didn’t catch after returning from an injury last year, but he’s once again behind the plate.

Infielders
Luisangel Acuna (BA 10, MLB 10)
Frainyer Chavez
Jake Guenther
Cristian Inoa
Keyber Rodriguez
Thomas Saggese (MLB 28)
Chris Seise

Picked 29^th overall in 2017, Chris Seise’s constant stream of injuries have limited him to 82 pro games. Given his luck, he was probably healthiest during 2020. Acuna stuck to second base after mid-July. He has the arm for the left side and was back at short during intersquads. The 19-year-old Saggese (2020, 5^th round) walked at will in low-A and split duties between second, third and short.

Outfielders
Angel Aponte
Evan Carter (BA 8, MLB 9)
Trevor Hauver (BA 22, MLB 19)
Aaron Zavala (BA 12, MLB 12)

The Rangers drafted the then-unheralded Carter in 2020 based on where they thought he’d rank had his senior high school season not been truncated by covid. A prescient move, given how quickly Carter established his prospect bona fides. They’ve treated him the same way now, promoting him to high-A despite a back injury that ended his 2021 after six weeks.

Hauver is 23 now and had a decent showing in Hickory (.246/.357/.426) but hasn’t staked out a position, so figuring out where he fits is probably easier with a return engagement.

LOW-A DOWN EAST WOOD DUCKS
Kinston, North Carolina
Carolina League
Texas affiliate since 2017

Pitchers
Michael Brewer
Gavin Collyer
Jose Corniell
Destin Dotson
Eris Filpo
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa
Larson Kindreich
Nick Lockhart
Dylan MacLean
Theo McDowell
Damian Mendoza
Teodoro Ortega
Winston Santos
Josh Stephan
Leury Tejada
Emiliano Teodo
Bradford Webb

Not a bad set of pitchers despite the absence of top-30 recognition. Teodo features a triple-digit fastball and high-spin curve. The 19-year-old Santos has good control and touched 97 in camp. Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa fanned 38 in 22.2 innings with the rookies last year. He’s nicknamed “Bubba,” and given the length of his birth name, I might just list him as simply Bubba in the game recaps. Kindreich (2021, 8^th round) struck out 18 against three walks in eight rookie innings.

Dotson and Tejeda were entrusted with critical relief innings during Down East’s playoff drive last September.

Catchers
Tucker Mitchell
Efrenyer Narvaez
Brady Smith

If all goes to plan, you’ll read the name Efrenyer Narvaez frequently. How many catchers, even in rookie ball, can post a .353/.428/.500 line?

Infielders
Jose Acosta
Maximo Acosta (BA 21, MLB 13)
Derwin Barreto
Abimelec Ortiz
Junior Paniagua
Yenci Pena

Thoracic outlet syndrome reduced Acosta’s pro debut to 17 lackluster games and dimmed his star a little. Still, he earned the promotion to full-season.

Outfielders
Yosy Galan
Daniel Mateo (BA 30)
Alejandro Osuna
Jose Rodriguez
Marcus Smith

Smith, more highly regarded than Dustin Harris when both were acquired for Mike Minor, has barely played because of hamstring problems. Like Seise, he could regain status quickly with good health.

Galan started the rookie season 0-for-13 with ten strikeouts, and proceeded to hit .274/.350/.573 and rank second with ten homers in 47 games.  

Unassigned Players Ranked By BA or MLB
3B Josh Jung (BA 2, MLB 2)
IF Justin Foscue (BA 6, MLB 5, BP 3)
Glenn Otto (BA 15, MLB 26, BP 8)
OF Yeison Morrobel (BA 16, MLB 18)
OF Bayron Lora (BA 19)
LHP Mitch Bratt (BA 20, MLB 23)
IF Cam Cauley (BA 25, MLB 22)
RHP Dane Acker (BA 26, MLB 24)
LHP AJ Alexy (BA 27, MLB 25, BP 10)
IF Danyer Cueva (BA 29, MLB 30)
OF Anthony Gutierrez (MLB 16)

Jung you know about. Foscue has back soreness. Acker is coming off elbow surgery. The rest are in limbo between MLB and AAA, with fates determined in the next few days, or are too green to earn their first full-season assignment.

Other Unassigned Players
LHP Brock Burke
RHP Matt Bush
RHP Demarcus Evans
RHP Greg Holland
LHP Matt Moore
RHP Brandon Workman
IF Charlie Culberson
OF Joe McCarthy
OF Steele Walker
OF Jake Marisnick
IF Matt Carpenter

Limbo is crowded.

Released / Retired

OF Carl Chester — The player to be named in last year’s trade for Nathaniel Lowe. Chester batted .1856/.235/.305 in AAA last year.

RHP Mason Cole – Sorry, Aggie fans. Texas 27th-round selection in 2019 had a walk-heavy 4.01 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 24.2 innings for Down East last year.

RHP Luke Schiltz – Picked three spots ahead of Cole, the 21-year-old fanned and walked 19 in 16.1 innings with a 7.71 ERA for the rookie squad last year.

RHP Adam McKillican and Connor Sechler – free agents who reached A levels in 2021.

RHP Josh Advocate – Texas’s 20th-rounder from 2017 has retired. He missed most of 2021. Advocate pitched well in long relief for high-A Down East in 2019.

RHP Nick Yoder – Also retired. Texas’s 34th-rounder for 2019.

Outbound

RHP Collin Wiles signed with the Athletics. Wiles spent nine years in the Texas system, most recently acquitting himself well during his first action in Triple A. RHP Joe Gatto signed with Philly. Texas signed Gatto to a Major League deal the previous winter, only to see him pitch so poorly in Surprise that he was designated for assignment and unclaimed. Gatto quickly improved enough to pitch well in AA and AAA, but not well enough for Texas to re-40 him.

Finally

1) Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid and I recorded a podcast Wednesday, focusing on Tepid’s visit to Arizona. Link in signature.
2) The Dodgers traded for Craig Kimbrel one day after the pen allowed a homer to Corey Seager.

Texas’s Top 100 Prospects
3B Josh Jung: 9th by FanGraphs, 19th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 26th by Baseball America, 31st by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Jack Leiter: 20th by Baseball Prospectus, 24th by FanGraphs, 25th by Baseball America, 36th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN)

IF Justin Foscue: 50th by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Cole Winn: 52nd by FanGraphs, 60th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 61st by Baseball America, 91st by Baseball Prospectus

IF Ezequiel Duran: 68th by FanGraphs, 99th by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Owen White: 84th by FanGraphs

IF Josh Smith: 89th by FanGraphs

I believe all the Jung placements pre-date his injury. On a subsequent podcast, FanGraphers Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein suggested he’d rank in the sixties as is.

Organization Farm Rankings
8th by Baseball Prospectus, (13th in 2021)
9th by Baseball America (24th last year)
10th by Kiley McDaniel / ESPN (20th last year)

Trade
Both Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim have strong defensive reps, especially in terms of pitch-calling, but Texas’s catchers combined to hit .223/.257/.367 in 2021. Texas’s offense hasn’t been better than its pitching since 2016, and even then, just barely. 2020 was the franchise’s worst offensive season, and 2021 was no better than third-worst. This team desperately needs hitting. Mitch Garver will hit. (Also, the free agent market for catchers was exceptionally bleak.)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa admitted some grumpiness upon Texas’s acquisition of Seagar and Semien, and I can’t blame him. IKF’s bat has been worth about 1.5 wins below average (average, not replacement) per 600 plate appearances, but he’s compensated by fielding well at a premium position. Defense saved last year’s squad from a win total in the 50s. But again, the Rangers are focused on upgrading an atrocious offense. That’s not to pin it on IKF, who has an acceptable lifetime .316 OBP, but he’s the biggest trade chip if the strategy is to sacrifice some defense in exchange for hitting.

Kiner-Falefa received scant attention nationally while climbing the system, but those of us who focus mostly on the Rangers were on to him despite his lack of even doubles power at the time. IKF squeezes more out of his ability than just about any Ranger I’ve seen. He will not be denied. Best wishes to him.

I enjoy watching RHP Ronny Henriquez, but he’s the type you readily relinquish to push a deal for a starting position player over the line. His fastball is lively and angry, backed up by a capable if inconsistent slider and change. I saw him and Yerry Rodriguez back-to-back last July. Rodriguez’s fastball impressed the most, but Henriquez looked more likely to remain a starter. Henriquez induced nine swinging strikes with his slider. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henriquez slide into a reliever role.
Here
I hadn’t thought of Brad Miller as an option. He’s 32. He’s wandered through six clubhouses during the past four years. He’s made only 57 of his 700 career starts at positions needing the most help in Texas (3B, LF). But even with all the address changes, Miller has batted .250/.344/.487 against righties since 2018. Miller used to man short regularly, so I’d venture he could form the strong side of a platoon at 3B or LF despite the relative lack of experience. Against lefties, Miller actually homers at a similar rate, about one per 21 PA, but otherwise is of no help.   

Martin Perez! Perez has averaged roughly one WAR per 100-150 innings in his career, and if he can give Texas 150 slightly-above-replacement innings in 2021, he’s a fine addition. Prior to his signing, Texas was in the position of asking some combination of Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, AJ Alexy, Glenn Otto, Kolby Allard, and perhaps a few others to fill three rotation spots behind John Gray and Dane Dunning. That’s a big ask. Perez will alleviate that pressure.

Free Agents back with Texas: LHP Sal Mendez, RHP Jesus Linarez, C Jordan Procyshen, IF Trey Hair, and as of yesterday, IF Charlie Culberson.

Among the recent signings to minor deals is OF Jake Marisnick, who’s totaled 11 wins above replacement in 800 games despite a .228/.282/.384 line, courtesy of superior defense. A nice depth signing and possibly more, depending on what Texas can do to fortify a still-thin outfield. Arlington native and Texas-Ex Brandon Workman is a Ranger following a second stint with the Red Sox. Workman has been off his game the past two years, posting a .5.66 ERA with 34 walks in 47.2 relief innings. Matt Moore, who threw 102 unmemorable innings for the unmemorable 2018 Rangers, is back. And, Texas just signed righty reliever Greg Holland, who’s been all over the map in terms of quality the past four years. The Rangers have some recent success snaring veteran arms, so perhaps Holland could be another.

IFs Nick Tanielu and Nash Knight are Rangers on minor deals. Neither appeared on any transaction list I’ve seen, but they’re on the Spring Training roster. Tanielu will be familiar to Express fans, having played for Round Rock as an Astro in 2019 and visiting last year as a member of the Padres’ El Paso affiliate. Tanileu excelled with the Express (.295/.360/.520) but was oddly ineffective at hitter-friendly El Paso (.233/.299/.415). The 29-year-old Knight — born in Denton, schooled at Dallas Baptist, professionally a Blue Jay until now — has played every position at some but it best regarded as a corner infielder with some moonlighting at second and in left. Both are seeking their MLB debuts.

There
1B Ronald Guzman signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.

San Francisco signed lefty Joe Palumbo to a minor deal. The Giants had declined to offer him a Major League contract after claiming him off waivers from Texas last fall, making him a free agent for a while. He’s a teammate of Luis Ortiz, who also signed with the Giants after spending 2021 in Round Rock.

Lefty Wes Benjamin, who became a free agent after being outrighted last fall, signed a minor deal with the White Sox.

Catcher Melvin Novoa and OF Pedro Gonzales signed with indy teams.

OF Lewis Brinson inked a minor deal with the Astros.

The Cubs signed OF Seiya Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract. Suzuki was the last available player in the “Other People’s Money” portion of my Nov. 16 report wherein I estimated value of lavishing $100 million annually (actually $108) on free agents. I had four and $44 in mind for Suzuki, so good for him on blowing by that.

Name Game
Our long national nightmare is over. MLB is reinstating the traditional monikers for the minor leagues. MLB was able to recast the minors more to its liking after 2020, but it lacked the naming rights. Thus, the stilted Triple A West, Double A South, High A East, and Low A East. They’re gone, never to be uttered again in polite company, replaced by the Pacific Coast League, Texas League, South Atlantic (Sally) League, and Carolina League.

New Rules
All full-season levels will institute a pitch clock of 14 seconds with bases empty and 19 (AAA) or 18 (elsewhere) with runners on. A 20-second pitch clock dates back to 2015 in AAA. I don’t know if the number of clock-enforced balls and strikes has declined, but my feeling is enforcement has become more lax over the years.

All full-season levels will play with the larger bases used in AAA last year. Also, the limit of two pickoffs or step-offs per plate appearance expands from low-A to all full-season leagues. A third pickoff that doesn’t result in an out is deemed a balk. Last year, Texas’s Down East squad set a low-A record with 2.42 steals per game. League-wide stolen base attempts increased 30% vs. 2019, and successful attempts jumped 47%.

The Pacific Coast League and Charlotte in the International League will employ the automated ball/strike system used last year in the Low-A Southeast and Arizona Fall League last year. I have a pet theory that players with superior batting eyes can walk at an outsized rate because they needn’t worry about varying strikes zones among umps or expansion of the zone in three-ball counts. Let’s check the stats:

Number of players drawing at least 1 walk per 6 plate appearances:
All Low-A in 2019 (no robo-ump): 6 players, 0.20 per team
2021 Low-A West and East (no robo-ump): 5 players, 0.28 per team
2021 Low-A Southeast (robo-ump): 18 players, 1.50 per team

Ranger Trevor Hauver is among them; he drew 64 walks in 66 games in Tampa prior to his trade to Texas. I don’t expect an explosion in the AAA walk rate like what occurred in the Low-A Southeast last year. AAA pitchers have better control and are another year removed from the lost 2020. But we might see some hitters really take advantage of a “perfect” strike zone.

Levels below AAA will ban the shift; the four infielders must divide equally on either side of second and plant their spikes in the dirt.

Legal News
Back in 2014, some minor leaguers sued selected MLB clubs and MLB itself over alleged illegal wage and labor practices. The players eventually formed a class that withstood a certification challenge reaching the US Supreme Court. Last week, a federal judge ruled on a host of pre-trial motions, most notably granting the plaintiffs’ summary judgment motion and ruling that the players are indeed “employees” under federal and state law, that players’ currently unpaid activities in spring training complexes are indeed “work,” and that travel time to and from Cal League games is compensable. The judge ordered $1,882,650 in penalties on the Cal League claim, with penalties in other states to be determined at trial if the case proceeds that far. Prior to this ruling, you might recall that MLB’s counsel recently had to defend the notion that minor leaguers not only should not be paid during spring training, but that the instruction and “life skills” received are things the players would pay thousands for at private camps. The judge was not persuaded, stating “defendants’ creative professional exemption defense fails as to all of Plaintiffs’ claims” and “defendants’ method of allocating signing bonuses and tuition payments to offset minimum wage liability is incorrect as a matter of law.”

The amount of money isn’t huge, relatively speaking, but it’s not nothing, and paying players during Spring Training would certainly represent a drastic change in business practices. If a court tells clubs owners they have to pay minor leaguers more money, owners might respond by employing fewer minor leaguers. 40 minor league teams already lost their affiliations after 2020. Under the new agreement, clubs are committed to fielding four full-season minor teams through 2030.

Rule 5 Draft
Cancelled. Unfortunately, also cancelled is my annual trip to Arizona for the third straight year. Pre-CBA uncertainty about whether folks like me would be allowed in Surprise plus grim certainty about my current work schedule forced me to make an unappealing decision. Instead, later on this year I hope to visit Texas’s A-level clubs for the first time since 2011.

Jung
Per local reports, 3B Josh Jung has a left (non-throwing) labral strain that will sideline him for an indefinite period and possibly require surgery. Terrible news for someone who might have won the starting 3B job out of Spring Training. I saw plenty of him last August and September and thought he was ready. At the very least, he was to be among Texas’s most prominent prospects when the minors resume.

FanGraphs.com’s just-revealed top-100 prospect list places Jung 9th, the highest I’ve seen him. I’ll have more on prospect rankings down the road. 

Stock Photo Of Chain And Padlock Draped Over A Baseball

This week’s lengthier MLB-MLBPA discussions are encouraging, but on the whole, the lockout and tenor of ongoing negotiations reminds me of 2020’s reorganization of the minors. In that case, MLB patiently let the agreement with MiLB expire and largely dictated new terms to a collection of teams decimated by the pandemic. (Some have sued, but I don’t think they have much of a case.) In the current situation, MLB owners and management can’t domineer the Players Association as it did MiLB, but they seem willing to accept the loss of games and negative press in order to achieve the same resounding victory.

Fans have the right to be weary and disgusted, especially after two Spring Trainings impacted by the pandemic. I certainly am. However, I absolutely do not buy the “billionaires vs. millionaires” dismissal or the idea of locking them in a room until they work it out. The stakes are too high. For most players, this next CBA will govern what remains of their careers. The draft and reserve clause prevent anything approaching genuine competition for the services of most players. Salaries are essentially fixed. Any improvements in their compensation and working conditions must be obtained now. Likewise, for owners, terms that make the final version of a CBA tend to stick, so anything conceded now could impact profits and asset values well beyond the terms of this agreement.

Per Travis Sawchik of The Score, 63% of MLB players in 2019 had under three years of service time. From 2011 to 2019, the average debut age increased from 24.6 to 25.6, but the percentage of players over 30 has decreased from 40% in 2004 to 30% now.

Entering 2021, the average MLB salary was over $4 million, but that figure is badly skewed by top-tier free agents and has no relevance for the vast majority of players. Roughly 45% of MLB’s active roster have salaries under $1 million. By my count, 30 of Texas’s 40-man roster members have yet to reach arbitration. Of those, I count 17 yet to reach $1 million in cumulative earnings, including signing bonuses. A decent number of them will eventually, of course, and I’m not trying to pass them all off as destitute. But for many of these players, minimum salaries are all they’ll ever see, so I think the union is right to weigh them heavily in the negotiations.

One Hundred Fifty

Connected to the critical monetary issues is MLB’s request (withdrawn as of Monday) for the power to lower the number of US-based minor leaguers per club from 180 to as few as 150. In the past, individual minor league teams had roster limits that generally guided the total number of players a club would employ, but clubs didn’t have an organization-wide roster limit to my knowledge. That has changed, and MLB may want the right to change it again for what seems a modest monetary benefit.

Reviewing Texas’s 2021 reveals what a lower limit would entail. 221 players took the field for the club’s minor league teams last year. Nine were rehabbing MLB players, another 17 were optioned 40-man members. That leaves 195 players on minor league contracts, to which must be added four absent from injury and seven draft picks who didn’t take the field. So, by my count, the Rangers had 206 players signed to minor league contracts over the course of the 2021 season. The total at any given moment was lower, but I don’t think the Rangers ever had as few as 150. Texas has at least 170 players signed to minor league deals right now. (Odds are my figures aren’t exact, but they should be close enough for discussion.)

The late-2020 overhaul of the minor league system eliminated 40 teams but guaranteed four full-season minor league teams per club through 2030. These four teams have a cumulative roster limit of 116. Rookie-level teams were and are at the discretion of individual clubs. Every club has at least one, some have two (not Texas). They have no roster limit and can stretch into the thirties and beyond. Staffing five teams with a maximum of 150 minor leaguers plus optioned 40-man members isn’t impossible but stretches resources awfully thin. A 150 limit would effectively prohibit multiple rookie-level teams within an organization.

Cutting aggregate roster sizes isn’t going to eliminate the AAA vets needed as MLB reinforcements, some of whom receive low six-figure deals. The eliminated salaries would be at the bottom, those making a few hundred per week.

Also, maintaining minor league rosters is difficult enough as is. Players get hurt and need replacements. Any promotion or demotion can set off a chain of transactions affecting the positions and plate appearances of multiple players. Now add to that the possibility of having to release a capable player in order to sign a draft pick, or putting forth a short-handed team, in service of some weirdly arbitrary roster limit.

Concurrent with this is the ongoing class action lawsuit by a group of minor league players against MLB. MLB’s argument ($ link) is that players are not employees during Spring Training, therefore they should not be paid. MLB’s counsel has reinforced this argument with a consulting study estimating that players receive training and benefits that would cost over $2,000 per week if obtained elsewhere, and that players gain “generally beneficial life skills” while in the minors.
Silver Cloud, Gray Lining

Good news: The lockout does not affect the minor leagues. Games will continue as scheduled, beginning Tuesday April 5 in AAA and Thursday elsewhere. Bad: Texas will still have plenty of players worth seeing, but the lockout and absence of MLB action is not to MiLB’s benefit.

First: Everybody on the 40-man roster is exiled. If you visit a minor league park this season (and you should!), you won’t see Sam Huff, or Sherten Apostel, or Yerry Rodriguez, or Ricky Vanasco, or Ezequiel Duran while the lockout persists. These players already missed 2020, and some were shelved for all or part of 2021 due to injury. They desperately need the opportunity to perform, but they’re banished from MLB facilities just like Max Scherzer, Corey Seager and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Second: Think about Drew Anderson, Jharel Cotton and Spencer Patton. All signed minor league deals with the Rangers before 2021, pitched well in AAA, and finished the season in MLB with 95 respectable innings between them. Patton and Cotton enter 2022 with MLB contracts, while Anderson parlayed his success into a gig in Japan. For their 2022 equivalents, the goal of returning to the Majors may not exist in April. Sometimes, opportunities are created by a combination of two or three superior weeks in the minors and an injury or bad performance at the MLB level. Some of these players could play well enough to warrant a call-up, only to have nowhere to go. That’s depressing.

Minor League Rule 5 Results

The Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft has been, at best, delayed by the lockout, but the minor league portion proceeded as planned in December. Players already on the 40-man roster were off-limits along with up to 38 players in the AAA reserve roster. The Rangers fully stocked the latter roster preceding the draft, leaving them unable to select anyone. They lost four players. Say farewell to:

IF Charles Leblanc (4th overall to Miami) – With a revamped approach, Leblanc more than tripled his home run rate in 2021 despite playing in AAA for the first time. Leblanc also struck out more than ever and posted a career-low .313 OBP and .229 average. He’s best suited to the corners (including LF) but can handle second and spot at short in a pinch. Leblanc is more of a prospect now than two years ago, when he struggled in AA, but even with the improved power I wasn’t shocked that he was exposed to this portion of the draft. Conversely, Baseball America described him as having the “greatest offensive upside” of any hitter in the draft lacking MLB experience.

RHP Abdiel Mendoza (18th overall to Toronto) —  Texas acquired Mendoza and RHP Teodoro Ortega in 2018 for reliever Cory Gearrin. Mendoza spent his Year 23 season in low-A, where he had his moments but struggled against lefties in general and everyone the second time through the order.

RHP Cole Uvila (26th overall to Baltimore) – Early in 2021, I thought Uvila had a shot to make his MLB debut. Like Joe Barlow, Uvila’s control ranges from so-so to frightening, but he strikes out plenty of hitters and manages to avoid too much solid contact the rest of the time. Or at least he did, until promotion to Round Rock, where in his first six outings he allowed 16 hits and walked 11 versus just three strikeouts. Still, writing off Uvila is premature. Recall that Barlow struggled badly in AAA and in successive spring tryouts before reaching the Majors.

RHP Nic Laio (27th overall to Pittsburgh) – His season mimicked Uvila. For a month, he was the system’s strongest reliever, fanning 31 in 18 innings with a 1.47 ERA for low-A Down East. Thereafter, mostly while in high-A, Laio continued to miss bats but was clobbered when he didn’t, permitting 11 homers and a .605 opposing slugging percentage in 38 innings.

Unlike some years, I didn’t have the reserve list before the draft. I did not expect Uvila or Laio to be exposed. That said, they were selected after two Rangers whose exposure didn’t surprise me.