Arizona Fall League
Letās check in on the Texas hitters:
IF Max Acosta: 17 games, .307/.394/.484, six doubles, one triple, one homer, eight steals
IF Cody Freeman: 18 games, .308/.416/.508, seven doubles, two homers
OF Alejandro Osuna: 22 games, .314/.449/.477, eight doubles, two homers, 20 walks (!)
All are to be commended for their terrific performances so far, but location plays a sizable role. Teams are averaging 6.4 runs per game with a line of .271/.375/.434. For the first time, we have Statcast data for the majority of parks (including Surprise, hallelujah), and comparison to the high-octane AAA Pacific Coast League confirms the silliness of the environment.
Median exit velo: PCL 89.9, AFL 92.6
90th-percentile exit velo: PCL 103.1, AFL 105.6
Hard-hit rate (95+ MPH): 35% PCL, 44% AFL
Balls are also traveling airborne an extra 10-15 feet depending on the type of measurement.
The good news is the Rangers hitters have acquitted themselves well even relative to the environment. Acosta has a median exit velocity of 96.1 MPH, seventh-best among hitters with at least 20 balls in play, and his 90th-percentile velo is 104.9. Freeman has a strong median velo that tapers to below-average at the top, while Osunaās median is near the middle, but his 90th-percentile velo is 106.6. Acosta and Freeman are among Texasās impending 40-man decisions, while Osuna has another year.
Location explains part of the inflated offensive figures. The other is personnel. Opening Day rosters featured 14 of MLB.comās top 100 prospects. All 14 were hitters. MLB.com ran a story on the top participating prospect from each team. 27 of 30 were hitters. One can find exceptions, but on the whole, elite pitching prospects and/or those with sizable regular-season workloads are absent. Of Surpriseās 25 pitchers to appear so far, only five threw more than 58 innings. The league walk rate of 13.2% is higher than any domestic league in 2024, including the rookie levels.
As for Texasās pitchers:
Marc Church: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB+HBP, 9 SO, 200/.238/.350 oppo line
Skylar Hales: 13.50 ERA, 4.2 IP, 13 H, 3 BB+HBP, 5 SO, .520/.533/.600
Leandro Lopez: 6.19 ERA 16 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 12 BB+HBP, 20 SO, .292/.397/.462
Josh Stephan: 2.25 ERA, 20 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 7 BB+HBP, 21 SO, .200/.268/.280
Avery Weems: 1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB+HBP, 9 SO, .250/.308/.375
Hales is an outlier in this group, and I donāt mean his ERA. The AFL is often where pitchers find extra live action after missing time to injury, but Hales was one of Texasās busier relievers in 2024. Had I conjured a list of 8-10 potential Texas pitchers for the AFL, I doubt heād have been on it. Iām not suggesting heās tired or that the assignment was a bad idea. I have no direct knowledge. His control has been adequate, and the only extra-base hits are two doubles, but opponents are hitting a garish .591 on balls in play. Maybe some bad luck. Maybe a little tiredness.
The 22-year-old Lopez missed most of 2024 to injury, has scant experience above low-A, and tends to be walk-prone even in the best of times, so Iām honestly pleased with what heās accomplished. Lopez has a full repertoire led by a splendid curve and mid-90s heater. A project worth watching.
Stephan is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. Heās a back-of-rotation type who doesnāt strike me as someone whoād be nabbed, but Iāve been wrong before. In any case, the recent performances are heartening. Injuries have limited him to under 70 innings in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. Weems will be R5-eligible as well, unless protected, but at the not-so-tender age of 27, heās trying to regain his footing after missing 2023 and most of 2024 to elbow surgery. Heās under control to the Rangers for another season.
Here’s the average and maximum pitch velocities for the Texas contingent. Note that not every game has data, so the actual performances could vary:
In the Fall Stars game last Saturday, Marc Church earned the save in a 6-5 win for the American League, nipping the outside edge on a slider for a game-ending strike. CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3. A fly off just off the sweet spot and a little underneath fell just short of the fence. SS Max Acosta entered mid-game and was 0-2.
Also participating in the league are former Rangers RHP Zak Kent (CLE), RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (CHW) and IF Thomas Saggese (STL).
Departed
These Texas minor leaguers became free agents recently:
LHP Grant Wolfram (AAA)
RHP Kyle Barraclough (AAA)
RHP Tim Brennan (AAA)
RHP Shane Greene (AAA)
RHP Damian Mendoza (everywhere)
RHP DJ Peters (hi-A)
RHP Adrian Sampson (AAA)
RHP Peter Solomon (AAA)
RHP Tyler Zombro (AAA)
C Jesus Moreno (low levels)
C Matt Whatley (AAA)
IF Jose Barrero (AAA)
IF Jax Biggers (AAA)
IF Alex De Goti (AAA)
OF Luis Mieses (AA)
Biggers, Brennan and Wolfram were 2018 picks whoād played out their renewal options. IF Frainyer Chavez was drafted the same year but doesnāt appear as a free agent for reasons unknown to me. A few other Rangers also should have become free agents by my reckoning, but either Iām wrong, they did and already re-signed, or they did and simply donāt appear on the transaction list yet.
Incidentally, Jose Leclercās free agency leaves none in the organization from the 2010-2011 World Series years. Leclerc signed in December 2010. The longevity title has passed to OF Leody Taveras, signed July 2015.
Some familiar free agents from other teams:
LHP Kolby Allard (PHI), LHP Brady Feigl (PIT), LHP Kolton Ingram (SFO), LHP CJ Widger (SEA), RHP Shaun Anderson (MIA), RHP Nabil Crismatt (SDP), RHP Alisson del Orbe (SEA, an infielder as a Ranger), RHP Robert Dugger (OAK), RHP Carl Edwards Jr., RHP Kevin Gowdy (LAD), RHP Jonathan Hernandez (SEA), RHP Spencer Howard, RHP Luis Ortiz (PHI), RHP Yerry Rodriguez (TOR), RHP Connor Sadzeck (PIT), RHP Nick Snyder (PHI), RHP Alex Speas (BOS), RHP Drew Strotman (SFO)
C Andrew Knizner (ARI), C Kevin Plawecki (SDP), C Yohel Pozo (OAK), IF Jose Acosta (MIL), IF Brendon Davis (LAD), IF Mark Mathias (CIN), OF JP Martinez (ATL), OF Nick Solak (SEA), OF Zach Reks (SDP), OF Bubba Thompson (CIN)
Not-So-Super Two
Among players with at least two but fewer than three years of service time, the most-experienced 22% qualify for an extra year of arbitration. The cutoff for 2024 was set at two years, 132 days of service time. Falling three days short: infielder Josh Smith.
Thatās unfortunate for him. By my rough guess, he would have at least doubled his pay. To be clear, the Rangers did not manipulate his service time to forestall a larger salary. Smithās contract was purchased at the end of May 2022 to replace an injured Brad Miller. Smith would be optioned in August but recalled after 19 days. He received full MLB credit for those 19 days; an option period of 20 or more days would have meant zero credit. He then spent the entirety of 2023 and 2024 on the MLB roster. Two years and 129 days would have been enough to qualify in all of the previous four years. He was just unlucky.
Just before I hit the post button, the Rangers announced Smith won the Silver Slugger award at the utility position. That would’ve played well at an arbitration hearing.
Elsewhere
Interleague play is coming to Triple A! Sort of. In 2025, Round Rock will open its home schedule against the International Leagueās Toledo (DET), visit Charlotte (CHW) in May, and head to St. Paul (MIN) in August.
Sugar Land has two interleague series, both on the road. The recently re-nicknamed Oklahoma City Comets have one at Memphis. Las Vegas will host Iowa (CHC), and Salt Lake will welcome Omaha (KAN).
And thatās it. The other five PCL teams and 14 of the 20 IL teams will play a standard schedule. As to why Round Rock will have 18 interleague games while 19 other AAA teams have none, I couldnāt begin to guess.
Incidentally, the schedule structure of the AAA Sacramento RiverCats hasnāt changed despite sharing their home with The Athletics. Instead, MLB successfully shoehorned the Aās into the minor leaguesā week-at-home, week-away format, so the two clubs wonāt be fighting over lockers on any given day. The Aās host the Rangers in late April and the close of August. Also, Sacramento surprisingly had the most pitcher-friendly park in the PCL during the past three seasons, so it shouldnāt be another Rockies-type location, which would have been the case had the Aās made their ātemporaryā home in Summerlin (outside Vegas), where their AAA affiliate plays.
The website of the defunct Down East Wood Ducks is also defunct. The site of the new Hub City Spartanburgers is fully active and integrated into the MiLB framework. Hub City will be Texasās high-A affiliate in 2025, while Hickory will drop back to low-A, the position occupied from 2009 through 2019.
Social Butterfly
Some of you follow me on Twitter/X. I donāt post frequently in the offseason, but lately, Iāve been doing so on Bluesky. Iāve had an account there for over a year, but the network effects have been wanting. More recently, baseball-related content has improved considerably. Will Bluesky replace Twitter/X outright as the premier microblogging site? Probably not, but it might become a worthy alternative. Hereās my account.
<!-- wp:social-links --><ul class="wp-block-social-links"><!-- wp:social-link {"url":"https://gravatar.com/slucas66","service":"gravatar","rel":"me"} /--></ul><!-- /wp:social-links -->