Month: November 2024

40-Man Additions

Added to the 40-man roster are RHP Winston Santos, RHP Emiliano Teodo, and IF Max Acosta.

I wouldn’t call any omission a huge surprise, although I had talked myself into believing the Rangers would select LHP Bryan Magdaleno, who had been awarded the organization’s Reliever of the Year. Also available in the upcoming Rule 5 draft will be righties Dane Acker and Josh Stephan and first baseman Abi Ortiz and Blaine Crim, Defender of the Year IF Cody Freeman, and many more.

The Rangers also returned RHP Carson Coleman to the Yankees. Texas had nabbed him in last year’s Rule 5 draft about halfway through recovery from Tommy John. A setback prevented him from pitching at all in 2024.

The 40-man roster has 39 players at present. The non-tender deadline is Friday.

Elsewhere

Detroit selected RHPs Chase Lee and Tyler Owens, both acquired from the Rangers last summer as part of trades for reliever Andrew Chafin and catcher Carson Kelly, respectively. I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Lee’s addition based on how he performed in Texas, but he did improved his strikeout and walk rates in AAA Toledo. Texas had acquired Owens for OF JP Martinez last winter. He’s pitched well in AA Frisco but I honestly hadn’t watched him carefully enough to develop much of an opinion. Catcher Liam Hicks and RHP Joseph Montalvo, two others Texas shipped in those trades, were not selected. Detroit also designated for assignment former Rangers RHP Ricky Vanasco.

St. Louis picked the contract of RHP TK Roby, who would have been eligible for the R5 if unprotected. He joins a 40 already containing fellow trade acquisition IF Thomas Saggese, who made his MLB debut in September. Roby missed much of 2024 with a shoulder malady and hasn’t advanced beyond the AA level reached with Texas.

Pittsburgh signed RHP Yerry Rodriguez to a minor deal. Atlanta signed IF Charles Leblanc and C Yohel Pozo but released Pozo a couple of days later.  

On Tuesday, the Rangers and their competition must update their 40-man rosters in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft. This eligibility period fully incorporates the covid-shortened 2020 draft, which when combined with limits on the domestic roster leaves the Rangers with a smaller pool than usual. By my count, Texas has only 16 first-time eligibles, two fewer than last year.

I have an unofficial table of eligible players under the ‘Rule 5” tab. The second and third columns are what matters. Players in the second column have been through this process at least once before, while those in the third are eligible for the first time.

The Rangers have 37 players on the 40 as of Monday night. Are the Rangers facing a severe roster crunch? I don’t think so, even with signings of Major League free agents needed as well. I see a decent number of potential removal candidates. The Rangers can’t go hog-wild but shouldn’t have trouble finding spots for who they want.  

Here’s a summary of clear additions, question marks, and some players who have minimal chance of being selected but deserve a mention.

RHP Winston Santos
A lock. Santos struggled at times upon promotion to AA, but the stuff is there and would easily translate to a short/swing role on a Major League staff.

RHP Emiliano Teodo
Should you be concerned about his stamina and control precluding a starting role in the Majors? Sure. Should you be concerned about whether he’ll be protected? No.

IF Max Acosta
Acosta’s prospect status peaked the day he was signed in 2019 and had slowly waned since, until recently. Had I written this preview in mid-July, I’d have offered an easy “no” plus a sentence or two about him getting by as 21-year-old in AA and still having a shot. Through July 9, Acosta was batting .245/.307/.345, essentially meeting expectations given his age and history. Thenceforth, he hit .326/.389/.505 during the regular season plus .338/.413/.521 in the Arizona Fall League. The underlying metrics were impressive, not mere Arizona flattery. Among 46 hitters with at least 25 balls in play, Acosta ranked third with a median exit velocity of 96.9 MPH. He also walked more and struck out less. As ever, he can run and play short. He seems to have taken a step forward lengthy enough for the Rangers to upgrade their commitment.

LHP Bryan Magdaleno
During a June business trip to DC, I headed south to Fredericksburg to watch Alejandro Rosario’s final low-A start. I was also treated to lefty Bryan Magdaleno, signed in late 2019 as an 18-year-old but still lacking much experience outside the complex entering 2024. He straightforwardly mowed down a side with a 96-98 fastball and slider. As it transpired, I was witness to Game 3 of a 20-game scoreless streak (excluding one extra-inning unearned run), during which Magdaleno allowed three hits in 25 innings, walked or hit 11, and struck out 41 (47% rate). He finished the season in AA Frisco as high-leverage reliever, although his lone playoff appearance ended the scoreless streak. Could Magdaleno could withstand constant exposure to MLB hitters in March? Maybe not, but finding out the hard way wouldn’t be fun.

1B Abimelec Ortiz
Through July 9 (same as Acosta), Ortiz was batting .183/.259/.306 with five homers (1.9% rate). Unlike Acosta, expectation were decidedly unmet. Thenceforth, he hit .321/.416/.611 with 15 homers (6.6% rate). In the second game of the Texas League semifinals, he delayed Frisco’s elimination for a day with a two-out, two-strike, game-tying 9th-inning homer followed by an extra-inning walk-off sac fly.

Best as I can tell, only four first basemen have been selected in the last ten Rule 5 drafts, and the only two to last the season at the MLB level were Ryan Noda and Mark Canha, both with the A’s, the latter as a LF nearly half the time. With slight unease, I feel Texas will expose him despite his resurgence.

RHP Josh Stephan
Stephan excelled in the Arizona Fall League after a second-straight injury-shorted regular season. Enough to warrant a 40 spot? Stephan has a fine slider (22% miss rate overall, 40% of swings in the AFL) and solid control, but starting in the Majors next March would be a huge ask, and his overall repertoire doesn’t migrate to a pen role as easily as the other pitchers I’ve mentioned. I lean toward Stephan sneaking through the process unprotected and unclaimed, even after the additional exposure in Arizona.

1B Blaine Crim
Another turnaround! Crim batted .215/.323/.351 through June, .324/.424/.600 the rest of the way. Crim’s metrics were swell even during his slump, and late in the season he received attention from some nationally oriented prospect writers (here and here). Through six professional seasons including 280 games in AAA, Crim has always hit. He doesn’t run at all and has zero positional flexibility, so the question is whether he’d hit enough to make an impact in the Majors as a first baseman, particularly as a Rule 5 pick who couldn’t be optioned. If he’s not starting, what is his role? A right-handed bench bat, in 2025, when organizations value flexibility seemingly more than ever?

I truly hope Crim gets the chance to prove himself, in Texas or elsewhere, but I don’t know that it’s occurring through this Rule 5 process.

RHP Dane Acker
Tricky. In 2024, Acker improved his control from poor to passable while fanning one-quarter of his AA opponents. Converted to long (but still meaningful) relief in August, at least for the interim, Acker pitched even better. I guess the problem is upside. If an opposing GM doesn’t see a starter or at least a 7th-inning role, why not just bring another relief NRI to camp instead of bothering with the Rule 5 process?

IF Cody Freeman
Despite no longer playing catcher, Freeman improved his standing with a career year at the plate and strong defense at third (and second). I’ve seen positive reviews offering a future utility role, perhaps even a busy one. Still, I don’t think he’s there yet, and I think he’ll pass through untouched.

RHP Ryan Garcia
Garcia’s 2023 was ugly, to be frank, such that I thought he might not be in the organization in 2024. Instead, he took advantage of a second turn through AA and then pitched well in eight AAA starts. Garcia could stand to improve his control a little more, but his well-rounded repertoire kept hitters off-balance and prevented excessive hard contact. He’s fly-prone but seemingly has a knack for inducing the sky-high types which cause no damage. Some eyewitness scout or video analyst saw him on a good day and filed a promising report, but I doubt he’d be selected.

LHP Robby Ahlstrom
Ahlstrom pitched capably in AAA, albeit with a few more walks than you’d like, but doesn’t stand out enough to warrant the hassle of Rule 5 restrictions. In 2025, if he’s the hot hand when a Texas reliever suffers an injury or one too many poor outings, he could get the call.

OF Kellen Strahm
Strahm finally reached AAA after more than two years in Frisco and performed admirably. He can run, cover center, take a pitch, drive one occasionally. Good depth, as it stands.

OF Trevor Hauver
The lone prospect in the Joey Gallo trade yet to reach the Majors, Hauver stormed through the final month in AAA (.384/.500/..717) after a difficult four-plus months (.193/.303/.311). He won’t be selected, but he has that nice finish to build on in 2025.

RHP Aidan Curry
A recent MLB.com story listed Curry as Texas’s toughest 40 decision. I wouldn’t make that claim.  A 40-spot contender entering 2024, Curry finished June with equal numbers of innings and runs allowed. He has a promising arsenal and improved overall down the stretch (albeit with worse control), but at present we’re talking someone who’s yet to retire high-A batters with any consistency. In a perfect world, he’s next year’s Winston Santos.
 
Arizona Fall League Championship
Surprise fell to Salt River 3-2, preventing a third consecutive championship for the Texas-aligned squad. Shortstop Max Acosta singled twice to drive in both Saguaro runs and walked. In the 1st, he lined 106 MPH to left to bring in KC’s Jac Caglianone. Acosta’s infield single plated Chase DeLauter in the 5th. Cleanup hitter and CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3 with two meaningful walks, both extending the inning with two outs to set up Acosta’s singles. Alas, with two aboard and two out in the 9th, he couldn’t quite beat the throw on a chopped grounder.

Three of the four Surprise pitchers were Rangers. Josh Stephan drew the start, lasting four-plus innings with six hits, three runs, a walk and four strikeouts. Stephan’s heavy dose of sliders was effective, but Salt River found some success against his sinker and change.

Skylar Hales replaced Stephan after a leadoff walk in the 5th and proceeded to walk two more before settling down. A double-play grounder scored what turned out to be the winning run. Opponents whiffed on four of five swings against his mid-90s fastball. Marc Church was dominant, which is what you’d hope for given his ascent to the Majors last this season. He fanned three in two perfect innings, generating nine swinging strikes out of 13 swings.

Social
Lately, I’ve been providing social media updates at Bluesky. A good number of baseball-fixated media and other contributors have migrated to the site and are posting enough to make it worth your time if you’re into that sort of thing. Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball has created a “starter pack” of Rangers-oriented writers (14 of them, last I checked, including me) that you can follow in one click or choose individually.

Arizona Fall League

Let’s check in on the Texas hitters:
IF Max Acosta: 17 games, .307/.394/.484, six doubles, one triple, one homer, eight steals
IF Cody Freeman: 18 games, .308/.416/.508, seven doubles, two homers
OF Alejandro Osuna: 22 games, .314/.449/.477, eight doubles, two homers, 20 walks (!)

All are to be commended for their terrific performances so far, but location plays a sizable role. Teams are averaging 6.4 runs per game with a line of .271/.375/.434. For the first time, we have Statcast data for the majority of parks (including Surprise, hallelujah), and comparison to the high-octane AAA Pacific Coast League confirms the silliness of the environment.

Median exit velo: PCL 89.9, AFL 92.6
90th-percentile exit velo: PCL 103.1, AFL 105.6
Hard-hit rate (95+ MPH): 35% PCL, 44% AFL

Balls are also traveling airborne an extra 10-15 feet depending on the type of measurement.

The good news is the Rangers hitters have acquitted themselves well even relative to the environment. Acosta has a median exit velocity of 96.1 MPH, seventh-best among hitters with at least 20 balls in play, and his 90th-percentile velo is 104.9. Freeman has a strong median velo that tapers to below-average at the top, while Osuna’s median is near the middle, but his 90th-percentile velo is 106.6. Acosta and Freeman are among Texas’s impending 40-man decisions, while Osuna has another year.

Location explains part of the inflated offensive figures. The other is personnel. Opening Day rosters featured 14 of MLB.com’s top 100 prospects. All 14 were hitters. MLB.com ran a story on the top participating prospect from each team. 27 of 30 were hitters. One can find exceptions, but on the whole, elite pitching prospects and/or those with sizable regular-season workloads are absent. Of Surprise’s 25 pitchers to appear so far, only five threw more than 58 innings. The league walk rate of 13.2% is higher than any domestic league in 2024, including the rookie levels.

As for Texas’s pitchers:
Marc Church: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB+HBP, 9 SO, 200/.238/.350 oppo line
Skylar Hales: 13.50 ERA, 4.2 IP, 13 H, 3 BB+HBP, 5 SO, .520/.533/.600
Leandro Lopez: 6.19 ERA 16 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 12 BB+HBP, 20 SO, .292/.397/.462
Josh Stephan: 2.25 ERA, 20 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 7 BB+HBP, 21 SO, .200/.268/.280
Avery Weems: 1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB+HBP, 9 SO, .250/.308/.375

Hales is an outlier in this group, and I don’t mean his ERA. The AFL is often where pitchers find extra live action after missing time to injury, but Hales was one of Texas’s busier relievers in 2024. Had I conjured a list of 8-10 potential Texas pitchers for the AFL, I doubt he’d have been on it. I’m not suggesting he’s tired or that the assignment was a bad idea. I have no direct knowledge. His control has been adequate, and the only extra-base hits are two doubles, but opponents are hitting a garish .591 on balls in play. Maybe some bad luck. Maybe a little tiredness.

The 22-year-old Lopez missed most of 2024 to injury, has scant experience above low-A, and tends to be walk-prone even in the best of times, so I’m honestly pleased with what he’s accomplished. Lopez has a full repertoire led by a splendid curve and mid-90s heater. A project worth watching.

Stephan is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. He’s a back-of-rotation type who doesn’t strike me as someone who’d be nabbed, but I’ve been wrong before. In any case, the recent performances are heartening. Injuries have limited him to under 70 innings in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. Weems will be R5-eligible as well, unless protected, but at the not-so-tender age of 27, he’s trying to regain his footing after missing 2023 and most of 2024 to elbow surgery. He’s under control to the Rangers for another season.

Here’s the average and maximum pitch velocities for the Texas contingent. Note that not every game has data, so the actual performances could vary:

In the Fall Stars game last Saturday, Marc Church earned the save in a 6-5 win for the American League, nipping the outside edge on a slider for a game-ending strike. CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3. A fly off just off the sweet spot and a little underneath fell just short of the fence. SS Max Acosta entered mid-game and was 0-2.

Also participating in the league are former Rangers RHP Zak Kent (CLE), RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (CHW) and IF Thomas Saggese (STL).

Departed

These Texas minor leaguers became free agents recently:
LHP Grant Wolfram (AAA)
RHP Kyle Barraclough (AAA)
RHP Tim Brennan (AAA)
RHP Shane Greene (AAA)
RHP Damian Mendoza (everywhere)
RHP DJ Peters (hi-A)
RHP Adrian Sampson (AAA)
RHP Peter Solomon (AAA)
RHP Tyler Zombro (AAA)
C Jesus Moreno (low levels)
C Matt Whatley (AAA)
IF Jose Barrero (AAA)
IF Jax Biggers (AAA)
IF Alex De Goti (AAA)
OF Luis Mieses (AA)

Biggers, Brennan and Wolfram were 2018 picks who’d played out their renewal options. IF Frainyer Chavez was drafted the same year but doesn’t appear as a free agent for reasons unknown to me. A few other Rangers also should have become free agents by my reckoning, but either I’m wrong, they did and already re-signed, or they did and simply don’t appear on the transaction list yet.

Incidentally, Jose Leclerc’s free agency leaves none in the organization from the 2010-2011 World Series years. Leclerc signed in December 2010. The longevity title has passed to OF Leody Taveras, signed July 2015.

Some familiar free agents from other teams:
LHP Kolby Allard (PHI), LHP Brady Feigl (PIT), LHP Kolton Ingram (SFO), LHP CJ Widger (SEA), RHP Shaun Anderson (MIA), RHP Nabil Crismatt (SDP), RHP Alisson del Orbe (SEA, an infielder as a Ranger), RHP Robert Dugger (OAK), RHP Carl Edwards Jr., RHP Kevin Gowdy (LAD), RHP Jonathan Hernandez (SEA), RHP Spencer Howard, RHP Luis Ortiz (PHI), RHP Yerry Rodriguez (TOR), RHP Connor Sadzeck (PIT), RHP Nick Snyder (PHI), RHP Alex Speas (BOS), RHP Drew Strotman (SFO)

C Andrew Knizner (ARI), C Kevin Plawecki (SDP), C Yohel Pozo (OAK), IF Jose Acosta (MIL), IF Brendon Davis (LAD), IF Mark Mathias (CIN), OF JP Martinez (ATL), OF Nick Solak (SEA), OF Zach Reks (SDP), OF Bubba Thompson (CIN)

Not-So-Super Two

Among players with at least two but fewer than three years of service time, the most-experienced 22% qualify for an extra year of arbitration. The cutoff for 2024 was set at two years, 132 days of service time. Falling three days short: infielder Josh Smith.

That’s unfortunate for him. By my rough guess, he would have at least doubled his pay. To be clear, the Rangers did not manipulate his service time to forestall a larger salary. Smith’s contract was purchased at the end of May 2022 to replace an injured Brad Miller. Smith would be optioned in August but recalled after 19 days. He received full MLB credit for those 19 days; an option period of 20 or more days would have meant zero credit. He then spent the entirety of 2023 and 2024 on the MLB roster. Two years and 129 days would have been enough to qualify in all of the previous four years. He was just unlucky.

Just before I hit the post button, the Rangers announced Smith won the Silver Slugger award at the utility position. That would’ve played well at an arbitration hearing.

Elsewhere

Interleague play is coming to Triple A! Sort of. In 2025, Round Rock will open its home schedule against the International League’s Toledo (DET), visit Charlotte (CHW) in May, and head to St. Paul (MIN) in August.

Sugar Land has two interleague series, both on the road. The recently re-nicknamed Oklahoma City Comets have one at Memphis. Las Vegas will host Iowa (CHC), and Salt Lake will welcome Omaha (KAN).

And that’s it. The other five PCL teams and 14 of the 20 IL teams will play a standard schedule. As to why Round Rock will have 18 interleague games while 19 other AAA teams have none, I couldn’t begin to guess.

Incidentally, the schedule structure of the AAA Sacramento RiverCats hasn’t changed despite sharing their home with The Athletics. Instead, MLB successfully shoehorned the A’s into the minor leagues’ week-at-home, week-away format, so the two clubs won’t be fighting over lockers on any given day. The A’s host the Rangers in late April and the close of August. Also, Sacramento surprisingly had the most pitcher-friendly park in the PCL during the past three seasons, so it shouldn’t be another Rockies-type location, which would have been the case had the A’s made their  “temporary” home in Summerlin (outside Vegas), where their AAA affiliate plays.

The website of the defunct Down East Wood Ducks is also defunct. The site of the new Hub City Spartanburgers is fully active and integrated into the MiLB framework. Hub City will be Texas’s high-A affiliate in 2025, while Hickory will drop back to low-A, the position occupied from 2009 through 2019.

Social Butterfly

Some of you follow me on Twitter/X. I don’t post frequently in the offseason, but lately, I’ve been doing so on Bluesky. I’ve had an account there for over a year, but the network effects have been wanting. More recently, baseball-related content has improved considerably. Will Bluesky replace Twitter/X outright as the premier microblogging site? Probably not, but it might become a worthy alternative. Here’s my account.

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