Author: scottrlucas

I hope this email finds you well.

Since the week before Christmas, I’ve been out of town more often than not and completely hamstrung by real-life work, so I’ve been writing intermittently and saving a report for when I had time to edit an entire piece. (I didn’t actually have time for this but needed a break.)

So, let’s get caught up on the last five weeks.  

Incoming

DH/OF Joc Pederson (Age 32 on Opening Day)
The professional righty-killer and fashion icon brings his bat to Texas for anywhere from one to three seasons. Since 2022, he’s batted .267/.367/.503 against righties. He’s also started a total of only 13 games against lefties and didn’t take the field at all in 2024, although he’s likely to play at least a little outfield in 2025. Pederson does at least reach base against lefties (.218/.351/.347 the last three years), but the absence of defensive starts is justified. He’s limited, sure, but what he’s good at is good indeed, and recall that Texas’s designated hitters batted .040 with three homers last year (I’m going from memory).

D magazine’s Zach Crizer has a piece about him.

LHP Robert Garcia (28)
Quite the story. Drafted by Kansas City in 2017’s 15^th round (same as Ricky Vanasco), Garcia wasn’t even protected on an AAA roster, much less the 40, after five seasons. He had retired (absent the paperwork) when Miami claimed him deep within the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. He decided to continue pitching and remarkably made his MLB debut 20 months later. The Marlins would soon designate him for assignment during a brief period when they were actually trying, but the Nationals claimed him, and he’s been fairly successful ever since, leading to his trade for a productive 1B in the form of Nathaniel Lowe.

I say “fairly” successful because 2024 was a combination of amazing peripherals but ordinary run suppression. He posted a 7% BB/HBP rate, a reasonable four homers in 59.2 innings, and an opposing line of .237/.288/.323. His rates on hard hits, grounders and chases were exceptional. Somehow, he ended up with a 4.22 ERA and 5.13 RA. What gives? It comes down to what could be plausibly called luck, as Garcia was terrific with the bases empty (.194/.248/.226) but poor once anyone reached base (.287/.333/.435). The reasonable expectation is that those splits should converge some, reducing the number of runners crossing the plate.

Garcia delivers a low-slot mid-90s fastball notable more for horizontal movement than rise, a slider, and what was a highly effective changeup in 2024. He’s under team control through 2029.

RHP Chris Martin (38) / LHP Hoby Milner (34) / RHP Shawn Armstrong (34)
After last season, Texas’s MLB-experienced bullpen arms consisted of Grant Anderson, Marc Church, Matt Festa, Gerson Garabito, Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington, Daniel Robert, an injured Josh Sborz, Owen White, and an injured Cole Winn, to which you could add Dane Dunning and maybe a couple of others who’ve typically started but might not find room in the 2025 rotation. Some could be credible performers this season, but clearly the bullpen renovation project was large enough to require multiple city permits and a general contractor.

Martin resurrected his MLB career as a Ranger in 2018 and will likely finish it as one, as he’s said 2025 is almost certainly his final season. He’ll turn 39 next season, and small indicators of decline abound, but nothing that suggests he can’t perform well.

LHP Mason Molina (21)
Molina is honestly a better return for the DFA’ed Grant Anderson than I expected, not in the team’s top 30 but worthy of an honest recap in my daily reports. Milwaukee grabbed the Texas Tech and Arkansas alum in last year’s seventh round. To date, Molina has relied heavily on a fastball that only runs around 90 but rises through bats. He adds an appealing traditional change and a couple of breakers that lag behind. He finished the season with a playoff appearance for high-A Wisconsin. That level seems an appropriate beginning to his 2025.

Outgoing (Trade)

1B Nathaniel Lowe
If you reviewed everything I’ve written about Lowe, you’d wonder what I had against him. More than once, I compared him to Mitch Moreland, who deservedly occupies a revered place in Rangers history but was often just good enough to avoid being the offense’s most pressing problem. Whenever I’d speculate about the likelihood of Lowe being traded or even non-tendered as his salary increased, he’d enter a hot stretch and make me look foolish (which is fine). Lowe wasn’t a traditional basher, at least not for extended periods, but he provided on-base production for an offense that at times was desperately lacking. He was, at long last, the average-to-plus 1B Texas had sought since the trade of Mark Teixeira in 2007.

Among the top 30 players in plate appearances who spent at least 50% of their time at 1B during 2021-2024, Lowe ranked eighth in bWAR with 10.8, fifth in OBP (.359), third in walks (292), and 11^th in homers (78).

Outgoing (DFA)

RHP Owen White
Toward the end of 2022, White recovered from forearm and neck trouble just in time to manhandle AA opposition in two postseason relief appearances. He was an unquestioned 40 addition and near-universally-regarded top-100 prospect. The next spring, after another neck issue, he didn’t look the same, and never has. Sad to say, for most of the past two seasons, he appeared unable to fill an up-and-down role, much less join a rotation. While he would make his MLB debut in June 2023, those circumstances leaned more toward immediate parent-club need than merit, as I mentioned at the time. In 2024, a bevy of minor league signings would graduate to the Majors while he stayed behind in Round Rock.

Switching to relief later in the season, White boosted his strikeout rate while suffering in other respects. The advanced stats shuffled around but didn’t indicate meaningful, positive change. His slider remained the most effective pitch, but he didn’t look the type to just run a four-seamer/slider combo past hitters. Indeed, White’s repertoire had ballooned to six pitches in Round Rock, and even in relief he offered the full set. Should he get back on track, that diversity could serve him well.

White was traded to Cincinnati for cash. He remains on the 40-man roster and has an option in 2025.

C Sam Huff
Had I been able to write in a timelier fashion, I would have mentioned Huff surprisingly keeping his 40 spot at White’s expense. Instead, he quickly suffered the same fate following the addition of Shawn Armstrong. I’ve covered Huff’s situation for a while. His basic and under-the-hood stats declined markedly during the 2024 season; from June onward, he batted .233/.279/.377 with six homers in 73 games. On his fourth and final option, he clearly had not put himself in a position to claim the #2 catcher role next spring. Plainly put, the likelihood of him being on the 40 by the end of March was virtually zero.

Catchers take inordinate patience, and Huff may yet find a way into an MLB role. Whatever happens, the Rangers have shown the requisite patience and can’t be blamed if he does succeed elsewhere. Huff joined the organization nearly nine years ago and turns 27 in January. Huff was claimed by the Giants, who already had three catchers on the roster but designated backstop Blake Sabol soon after. Another DFA seems most likely, but for the moment he’s hanging on.

RHP Grant Anderson
I’ve told this story before: Back in March 2019, I settled in to grab footage of several Texas hitting prospects in an intersquad against the M’s, only to see some teal-jerseyed side-armer toy with them for sport. I was impressed. So were the Rangers, who would acquire him two weeks later for Connor Sadzeck. That side-armer would be McNeese St. alum Grant Anderson, drafted in 2018’s 21^st round.

Back to the present: Anderson still has an option. Given that the Brewers traded a recent pick who signed for slot (the aforementioned Molina) and DFA’ed someone else (former 1^st-rounder Tyler Jay) to get him, I’d guess they don’t intend a quick attempt to sneak him through waivers. Incidentally, Grant’s twin brother Aidan re-signed with the Rangers several weeks ago.

RHP Matt Festa
Festa’s peripherals outshone his 4.37 ERA, and he might have been a handy guy to stash in AAA if he hadn’t run out of options. Texas traded him to the Cubs for cash. So, for now, all four players Texas designated for assignment in the past few weeks remain on a 40-man roster. 

Internationals

Wednesday commenced signing day for international free agents. At least monetarily, Texas made a modest splash in the free-agent pool compared to many previous years. Dominican OF/IF Elorky Rodriguez is the priciest signing at $1.1 million, followed by 3B Jhon Simon of the DR at $500,000. MIF Hansel (son of Hanley) Ramirez signed, joining David Ortiz Jr. (who signed last August) and Pablo Guerrero as progeny of former baseball greats in the organization.

Elsewhere

OF Bubba Thompson has walked off the diamond and onto the University of South Alabama’s football squad. In 2017, Thompson was a high school QB of some regard, although not enough to sway him from first-round money. With the Rangers, Thompson’s improvement with the bat in 2021-2022 portended a fourth-outfielder role, but it didn’t translate to the Majors. After enduring five waiver claims in the span of six months, he finally passed through unclaimed and weirdly spent much of 2024 at AA Chattanooga, where he still suffered at the plate. Incidentally, USA’s head coach is Texas-Ex Major Applewhite.

Major deals: reliever Jose Leclerc (Athletics)

Minor deals: C Jorge Alfaro (Brewers), IF Yonny Hernandez (Mets), reliever CD Pelham (Athletics)

Rest in Peace

Rico Carty
Mike Cubbage
Bud Harrelson
Odell Jones
Hector Ortiz
Lenny Randle
Jim Umbarger

Up Next

I’ll circle back with Texas’s minor league signings, staffing, and five strategies for getting better responses to your marketing emails. Yours faithfully, Scott.

Burger

Late last night, the Rangers acquired 28-year-old 1B/3B Jake Burger from the Marlins for IF Echedry Vargas, IF Max Acosta and LHP Brayan Mendoza. Burger is heroic when he makes contact, clubbing 63 homers and slugging .488 the past two seasons. He hits the ball in the air, hard. He destroys fastballs.

Most else about his game is neutral or worse, chipping at the value created by that contact. He hits for an acceptable average but doesn’t walk much. His career strikeout rate is a lofty 28%. Burger hardly ever steals but grades out surprisingly well in terms of sprint speed and advanced baserunning stats. Burger isn’t a good defender and in 2024, for the first time, spent more days at first or DH than at third. That said, he provides insurance for Josh Jung, who’s been limited to 168 games the last two seasons.

Burger has averaged between 1.5 and 1.8 WAR per season the last two years, depending on source. “Average regular” is a reasonable if perhaps slightly generous description. Last year, Texas’s crowded caravan of DHs (18 of them, none with more than 25 games) batted a lowly .204/.263/.322, so Burger certainly represents a significant upgrade even without much defensive value. He was five days shy of qualifying for Super 2 arbitration status. He’ll make close to the minimum in 2025 and can become a free agent after 2028.

Barring further moves (and I’m expecting further moves), Burger’s acquisition would appear to reduce the upside in Ezequiel Duran’s possible playing time, although Duran can man the outfield. Also, whatever small chance 2020 first-rounder Justin Foscue had of making the club out of spring training has dwindled to nothing. Although surely better than his .048/.091/.071 line in 15 MLB games, Foscue hasn’t had a landing spot in Arlington for some time and at this point will really have to force the issue in AAA.

I kind of fell in love with Vargas last March in Surprise. After watching him repeatedly bruise the ball every which way, I couldn’t fathom that he fanned in 24% of his rookie-level plate appearance, and he rewarded me with a 21% rate at low-A in 2024. As a 19-year-old in a tough park and league for batters, he hit .276/.321/.454 including a stellar .310/.352/.508 on the road. On the downside, he simply stopped walking midway through the year (five in his last 49 games), didn’t hit lefties, and committed 27 errors in 86 games at short.

Since around August, I’ve written about middle infielder Max Acosta as much as anyone in the system. In mid-July, he began hitting with unprecedented prowess. He continued to rake in the Arizona Fall League, and the available Statcast data confirmed his .338/.413/.521 line wasn’t a desert mirage. During the summer, I’d offhandedly suggested that Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo would be Texas’s only 40 additions come fall, but Acosta insisted on joining those two.

The 20-year-old Mendoza hasn’t (too my knowledge) received any ink in national publications but was among a group of Down East youngsters who toyed with Carolina League batters before moving on. He’s more than organizational filler. I cause myself trouble trying to rank prospects ordinally but after a moment’s thought decided “he’s probably… somewhere… in the 40s.” Jamey Newberg ranked him 37th in early August. In an August start, Mendoza offered a 90-94 fastball that sat mostly 92-93, a breaker that veered from slurvy 80 to sweepy 86, and a mid-80s change that he wasn’t afraid to employ liberally.

Four years ago, Texas traded OF/”C” Heriberto Hernandez, IF Osleivis Basabe and OF Alexander Ovalles to Tampa Bay for 1B Nathaniel Lowe. I didn’t hate the trade but was uneasy, as Hernandez and Basabe were very much on the rise, plus the penny-pinching Rays were trading the minimum-making Lowe in favor of arbitration-eligible Jiman Choi. Certainly, that trade has worked out terrifically for the Rangers. The point is that Tampa Bay acquired some valuable prospects who ultimately have provided negligible value in the MLB level, limited to 31 light-hitting games from Basabe in 2023. The other two are out of the organization.

I’m not claiming that will reoccur in the Burger trade, but there’s a decent chance. Vargas’s inaugural full season was impressive, but I’m not sure where he lands defensively. Acosta’s late-2024 upsurge appears legitimate, but is he more than a role player? Mendoza has a shot, too, but also scant experience above low-A.  

Nate

Scout’s honor: I heard the Max Fried news (8 years and $218 million) while in my car yesterday and mumbled “Eovaldi’s getting $25 per.” Not long after, news came of his three-year $75 million contract. I should take the memory card out of my dashcam and save that moment for posterity. Too much money? Maybe, bordering on probably, but that’s the market, which as a whole has shrugged off the turmoil in local television contracts. Eovaldi will turn 35 before throwing his next regular-season pitch, but his stuff and location have aged admirably. A notable exception is the vertical break on his fastball, which dipped into warning territory in 2024, but opponents slugged only a modest .335 against it.

Webb

Texas also signed RHP Jacob Webb to a one-year deal. Baltimore had non-tendered the arbitration-eligible 31-year old who’d made an even million in 2024. Webb deals a 93ish fastball, low-to-mid-80s slider, and an especially effective mid-80s change.

Rule Five Results

The Rangers didn’t take or lose anyone in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft. In a modest surprise, the second overall pick was former Rangers catcher Liam Hicks, traded in July with RHP Tyler Owens for Tigers catcher Carson Kelly. Detroit added Owens to the 40 had declined to add Hicks. I seriously doubt the Rangers would have protected Hicks had he remained in the organization. Hicks has negligible power but makes contact and draws a zillion walks.

Texas also didn’t select a player in the minor league phase. The Rangers lost RHP Ricky Devito to Miami. Now 26, Devito struck out 30% of his AA opponents last year but also walked or hit an astounding 24%.

Baseball America’s initial list of “players to know” in the Rule 5 draft included two Rangers, 1B Blaine Crim and LHP Bryan Magdaleno, but neither ranked among “players most likely to get picked.” BA offered Oakland’s Ryan Noda as a template for Crim (as did I in my preview), and suggested Magdaleno could be seen as a low risk with high upside. In a subsequent update, BA added 1B Abi Ortiz as a draft possibility. All remain with the organization.

Tendered

Non-tender day (Nov 22nd) was such a snooze that I didn’t bother to file a report. Texas offered everyone a contract and signed pitchers Dane Dunning and Josh Sborz to team-friendly deals. Sborz will miss at least a third of the season after shoulder surgery.

Gone

OF Sandro Fabian
Japan’s Hiroshima club has signed Fabian to a three-year, $5.8 million contract. That Fabian is headed overseas isn’t a surprised, but I wouldn’t have expected such a long and lucrative deal. Fabian made his MLB debut with the Rangers in his ninth professional season, going hitless in five at-bats. He hit 56 homers and 88 other extra-base hits in three seasons in Texas’s minor league system.

Here

RHP Adrian Houser (age 31)
Houser is both a former Sooner and Astro, but let’s give him a chance. He started 97 games and appeared in 23 others for the Brewers during 2019-2023, posting a 4.04 ERA with between 3.4 and 6.2 total WAR depending on source. Unfortunately, after a trade to the Mets, Houser belly-flopped in his walk year, losing his rotation spot by mid-May and MLB job by late July. House relies on a low-to-mid-90s sinker plus a four-seamer, slider, change and curve. 2024 notwithstanding, Houser is a fine depth signing, someone who conceivably could start some games for the Rangers if he bounces back.

RHP Caleb Boushley (31)
Bousley has sipped coffee with the Brewers and Twins the past two seasons. He’s also averaged nearly 130 minor league innings the past four seasons, and my guess is he’ll be last year’s Adrian Sampson, a Triple A inning-eater. And, if the cards fall just right, some swing innings in Arlington.

RHP Bryce Bonnin (26)
A litany of injuries (mostly shoulder) and covid have limited the ex-Red Raider to just 216 innings in seven seasons since graduating high school. Cincinnati flat-out released him last March, less than four years after his selection in the 2020’s third round. He joined the Red Sox and was his usual high-strikeout, high-walk self. He sports a mid-90s heater and low-80s slider.

LHP Michael Plassmeyer (28)
At his best, Plassmeyer befuddles hitters with his control and command and will amass respectable strikeout totals despite an upper-80s fastball augmented with a sweeper and change. Plassmeyer reached the Majors briefly in 2022 and 2023, walking just one in 11 innings but surrendering hits of all varieties at an alarming rate. I’d expect a swing role in Round Rock.

RHP Mailon Felix (25)
The Dominican has never pitched professional in the western hemisphere to my knowledge, although he did sign a contract with a Dominican Winter League club. Felix spent the last three seasons with the farm club of Japan’s Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.

Back

RHP Aidan Anderson (27)
Grant’s brother, homer-prone but throws strikes.

RHP Reid Birlingmair (28)
Generated a little heat as a possible MLB contender, but AAA hitters have confounded him to date.

RHP Codi Heuer (28)
A capable reliever for both Chicago teams in 2020-2021, Heuer has thrown only 12 (minor league) innings the past three seasons.

RHP Steven Jennings (26)
Like Anderson above, solid in AA, homer-prone with Round Rock.

C Cooper Johnson (26)
Has quietly developed into a power hitter. 10 homers in college, nine in his first four pro seasons, 14 in 2024 with AA Frisco.

IF Keyber Rodriguez (24)
Rodriguez is the only player on this list who originally signed with Texas. His OBP tailed off in AA, but he’s versatile ad still fairly young.

OF Luis Mieses (24)
Mieses  signed with Texas last year after becoming a free agent out of the White Sox system. He doesn’t run or walk but provides average and power with the bat.

Elsewhere

Catcher Jorge Alfaro signed with Dominican Winter League club Licey recently but has yet to appear. Now 31, Alfaro didn’t play during the 2024 regular season after being released by the Cubs in late March.

RHP Spencer Howard signed with Japan’s Rakuten Eagles. Howard returned to MLB with both the Giants and Guardians since leaving Texas but didn’t create the type of resume that would garner more than a non-roster invite in the US. To be honest, his stats appear light for Japan as well, but we’ll see.

OF/DH Heriberto Hernandez, part of the aforementioned Lowe trade, became a free agent after playing out his contract and signed a minor deal with the Marlins.  

OF Nick Solak signed a minor deal with Pittsburgh.

Social Media Reminder

Lately, I’ve been providing social media updates at Bluesky. 

40-Man Additions

Added to the 40-man roster are RHP Winston Santos, RHP Emiliano Teodo, and IF Max Acosta.

I wouldn’t call any omission a huge surprise, although I had talked myself into believing the Rangers would select LHP Bryan Magdaleno, who had been awarded the organization’s Reliever of the Year. Also available in the upcoming Rule 5 draft will be righties Dane Acker and Josh Stephan and first baseman Abi Ortiz and Blaine Crim, Defender of the Year IF Cody Freeman, and many more.

The Rangers also returned RHP Carson Coleman to the Yankees. Texas had nabbed him in last year’s Rule 5 draft about halfway through recovery from Tommy John. A setback prevented him from pitching at all in 2024.

The 40-man roster has 39 players at present. The non-tender deadline is Friday.

Elsewhere

Detroit selected RHPs Chase Lee and Tyler Owens, both acquired from the Rangers last summer as part of trades for reliever Andrew Chafin and catcher Carson Kelly, respectively. I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Lee’s addition based on how he performed in Texas, but he did improved his strikeout and walk rates in AAA Toledo. Texas had acquired Owens for OF JP Martinez last winter. He’s pitched well in AA Frisco but I honestly hadn’t watched him carefully enough to develop much of an opinion. Catcher Liam Hicks and RHP Joseph Montalvo, two others Texas shipped in those trades, were not selected. Detroit also designated for assignment former Rangers RHP Ricky Vanasco.

St. Louis picked the contract of RHP TK Roby, who would have been eligible for the R5 if unprotected. He joins a 40 already containing fellow trade acquisition IF Thomas Saggese, who made his MLB debut in September. Roby missed much of 2024 with a shoulder malady and hasn’t advanced beyond the AA level reached with Texas.

Pittsburgh signed RHP Yerry Rodriguez to a minor deal. Atlanta signed IF Charles Leblanc and C Yohel Pozo but released Pozo a couple of days later.  

On Tuesday, the Rangers and their competition must update their 40-man rosters in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft. This eligibility period fully incorporates the covid-shortened 2020 draft, which when combined with limits on the domestic roster leaves the Rangers with a smaller pool than usual. By my count, Texas has only 16 first-time eligibles, two fewer than last year.

I have an unofficial table of eligible players under the ‘Rule 5” tab. The second and third columns are what matters. Players in the second column have been through this process at least once before, while those in the third are eligible for the first time.

The Rangers have 37 players on the 40 as of Monday night. Are the Rangers facing a severe roster crunch? I don’t think so, even with signings of Major League free agents needed as well. I see a decent number of potential removal candidates. The Rangers can’t go hog-wild but shouldn’t have trouble finding spots for who they want.  

Here’s a summary of clear additions, question marks, and some players who have minimal chance of being selected but deserve a mention.

RHP Winston Santos
A lock. Santos struggled at times upon promotion to AA, but the stuff is there and would easily translate to a short/swing role on a Major League staff.

RHP Emiliano Teodo
Should you be concerned about his stamina and control precluding a starting role in the Majors? Sure. Should you be concerned about whether he’ll be protected? No.

IF Max Acosta
Acosta’s prospect status peaked the day he was signed in 2019 and had slowly waned since, until recently. Had I written this preview in mid-July, I’d have offered an easy “no” plus a sentence or two about him getting by as 21-year-old in AA and still having a shot. Through July 9, Acosta was batting .245/.307/.345, essentially meeting expectations given his age and history. Thenceforth, he hit .326/.389/.505 during the regular season plus .338/.413/.521 in the Arizona Fall League. The underlying metrics were impressive, not mere Arizona flattery. Among 46 hitters with at least 25 balls in play, Acosta ranked third with a median exit velocity of 96.9 MPH. He also walked more and struck out less. As ever, he can run and play short. He seems to have taken a step forward lengthy enough for the Rangers to upgrade their commitment.

LHP Bryan Magdaleno
During a June business trip to DC, I headed south to Fredericksburg to watch Alejandro Rosario’s final low-A start. I was also treated to lefty Bryan Magdaleno, signed in late 2019 as an 18-year-old but still lacking much experience outside the complex entering 2024. He straightforwardly mowed down a side with a 96-98 fastball and slider. As it transpired, I was witness to Game 3 of a 20-game scoreless streak (excluding one extra-inning unearned run), during which Magdaleno allowed three hits in 25 innings, walked or hit 11, and struck out 41 (47% rate). He finished the season in AA Frisco as high-leverage reliever, although his lone playoff appearance ended the scoreless streak. Could Magdaleno could withstand constant exposure to MLB hitters in March? Maybe not, but finding out the hard way wouldn’t be fun.

1B Abimelec Ortiz
Through July 9 (same as Acosta), Ortiz was batting .183/.259/.306 with five homers (1.9% rate). Unlike Acosta, expectation were decidedly unmet. Thenceforth, he hit .321/.416/.611 with 15 homers (6.6% rate). In the second game of the Texas League semifinals, he delayed Frisco’s elimination for a day with a two-out, two-strike, game-tying 9th-inning homer followed by an extra-inning walk-off sac fly.

Best as I can tell, only four first basemen have been selected in the last ten Rule 5 drafts, and the only two to last the season at the MLB level were Ryan Noda and Mark Canha, both with the A’s, the latter as a LF nearly half the time. With slight unease, I feel Texas will expose him despite his resurgence.

RHP Josh Stephan
Stephan excelled in the Arizona Fall League after a second-straight injury-shorted regular season. Enough to warrant a 40 spot? Stephan has a fine slider (22% miss rate overall, 40% of swings in the AFL) and solid control, but starting in the Majors next March would be a huge ask, and his overall repertoire doesn’t migrate to a pen role as easily as the other pitchers I’ve mentioned. I lean toward Stephan sneaking through the process unprotected and unclaimed, even after the additional exposure in Arizona.

1B Blaine Crim
Another turnaround! Crim batted .215/.323/.351 through June, .324/.424/.600 the rest of the way. Crim’s metrics were swell even during his slump, and late in the season he received attention from some nationally oriented prospect writers (here and here). Through six professional seasons including 280 games in AAA, Crim has always hit. He doesn’t run at all and has zero positional flexibility, so the question is whether he’d hit enough to make an impact in the Majors as a first baseman, particularly as a Rule 5 pick who couldn’t be optioned. If he’s not starting, what is his role? A right-handed bench bat, in 2025, when organizations value flexibility seemingly more than ever?

I truly hope Crim gets the chance to prove himself, in Texas or elsewhere, but I don’t know that it’s occurring through this Rule 5 process.

RHP Dane Acker
Tricky. In 2024, Acker improved his control from poor to passable while fanning one-quarter of his AA opponents. Converted to long (but still meaningful) relief in August, at least for the interim, Acker pitched even better. I guess the problem is upside. If an opposing GM doesn’t see a starter or at least a 7th-inning role, why not just bring another relief NRI to camp instead of bothering with the Rule 5 process?

IF Cody Freeman
Despite no longer playing catcher, Freeman improved his standing with a career year at the plate and strong defense at third (and second). I’ve seen positive reviews offering a future utility role, perhaps even a busy one. Still, I don’t think he’s there yet, and I think he’ll pass through untouched.

RHP Ryan Garcia
Garcia’s 2023 was ugly, to be frank, such that I thought he might not be in the organization in 2024. Instead, he took advantage of a second turn through AA and then pitched well in eight AAA starts. Garcia could stand to improve his control a little more, but his well-rounded repertoire kept hitters off-balance and prevented excessive hard contact. He’s fly-prone but seemingly has a knack for inducing the sky-high types which cause no damage. Some eyewitness scout or video analyst saw him on a good day and filed a promising report, but I doubt he’d be selected.

LHP Robby Ahlstrom
Ahlstrom pitched capably in AAA, albeit with a few more walks than you’d like, but doesn’t stand out enough to warrant the hassle of Rule 5 restrictions. In 2025, if he’s the hot hand when a Texas reliever suffers an injury or one too many poor outings, he could get the call.

OF Kellen Strahm
Strahm finally reached AAA after more than two years in Frisco and performed admirably. He can run, cover center, take a pitch, drive one occasionally. Good depth, as it stands.

OF Trevor Hauver
The lone prospect in the Joey Gallo trade yet to reach the Majors, Hauver stormed through the final month in AAA (.384/.500/..717) after a difficult four-plus months (.193/.303/.311). He won’t be selected, but he has that nice finish to build on in 2025.

RHP Aidan Curry
A recent MLB.com story listed Curry as Texas’s toughest 40 decision. I wouldn’t make that claim.  A 40-spot contender entering 2024, Curry finished June with equal numbers of innings and runs allowed. He has a promising arsenal and improved overall down the stretch (albeit with worse control), but at present we’re talking someone who’s yet to retire high-A batters with any consistency. In a perfect world, he’s next year’s Winston Santos.
 
Arizona Fall League Championship
Surprise fell to Salt River 3-2, preventing a third consecutive championship for the Texas-aligned squad. Shortstop Max Acosta singled twice to drive in both Saguaro runs and walked. In the 1st, he lined 106 MPH to left to bring in KC’s Jac Caglianone. Acosta’s infield single plated Chase DeLauter in the 5th. Cleanup hitter and CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3 with two meaningful walks, both extending the inning with two outs to set up Acosta’s singles. Alas, with two aboard and two out in the 9th, he couldn’t quite beat the throw on a chopped grounder.

Three of the four Surprise pitchers were Rangers. Josh Stephan drew the start, lasting four-plus innings with six hits, three runs, a walk and four strikeouts. Stephan’s heavy dose of sliders was effective, but Salt River found some success against his sinker and change.

Skylar Hales replaced Stephan after a leadoff walk in the 5th and proceeded to walk two more before settling down. A double-play grounder scored what turned out to be the winning run. Opponents whiffed on four of five swings against his mid-90s fastball. Marc Church was dominant, which is what you’d hope for given his ascent to the Majors last this season. He fanned three in two perfect innings, generating nine swinging strikes out of 13 swings.

Social
Lately, I’ve been providing social media updates at Bluesky. A good number of baseball-fixated media and other contributors have migrated to the site and are posting enough to make it worth your time if you’re into that sort of thing. Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball has created a “starter pack” of Rangers-oriented writers (14 of them, last I checked, including me) that you can follow in one click or choose individually.

Arizona Fall League

Let’s check in on the Texas hitters:
IF Max Acosta: 17 games, .307/.394/.484, six doubles, one triple, one homer, eight steals
IF Cody Freeman: 18 games, .308/.416/.508, seven doubles, two homers
OF Alejandro Osuna: 22 games, .314/.449/.477, eight doubles, two homers, 20 walks (!)

All are to be commended for their terrific performances so far, but location plays a sizable role. Teams are averaging 6.4 runs per game with a line of .271/.375/.434. For the first time, we have Statcast data for the majority of parks (including Surprise, hallelujah), and comparison to the high-octane AAA Pacific Coast League confirms the silliness of the environment.

Median exit velo: PCL 89.9, AFL 92.6
90th-percentile exit velo: PCL 103.1, AFL 105.6
Hard-hit rate (95+ MPH): 35% PCL, 44% AFL

Balls are also traveling airborne an extra 10-15 feet depending on the type of measurement.

The good news is the Rangers hitters have acquitted themselves well even relative to the environment. Acosta has a median exit velocity of 96.1 MPH, seventh-best among hitters with at least 20 balls in play, and his 90th-percentile velo is 104.9. Freeman has a strong median velo that tapers to below-average at the top, while Osuna’s median is near the middle, but his 90th-percentile velo is 106.6. Acosta and Freeman are among Texas’s impending 40-man decisions, while Osuna has another year.

Location explains part of the inflated offensive figures. The other is personnel. Opening Day rosters featured 14 of MLB.com’s top 100 prospects. All 14 were hitters. MLB.com ran a story on the top participating prospect from each team. 27 of 30 were hitters. One can find exceptions, but on the whole, elite pitching prospects and/or those with sizable regular-season workloads are absent. Of Surprise’s 25 pitchers to appear so far, only five threw more than 58 innings. The league walk rate of 13.2% is higher than any domestic league in 2024, including the rookie levels.

As for Texas’s pitchers:
Marc Church: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB+HBP, 9 SO, 200/.238/.350 oppo line
Skylar Hales: 13.50 ERA, 4.2 IP, 13 H, 3 BB+HBP, 5 SO, .520/.533/.600
Leandro Lopez: 6.19 ERA 16 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 12 BB+HBP, 20 SO, .292/.397/.462
Josh Stephan: 2.25 ERA, 20 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 7 BB+HBP, 21 SO, .200/.268/.280
Avery Weems: 1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB+HBP, 9 SO, .250/.308/.375

Hales is an outlier in this group, and I don’t mean his ERA. The AFL is often where pitchers find extra live action after missing time to injury, but Hales was one of Texas’s busier relievers in 2024. Had I conjured a list of 8-10 potential Texas pitchers for the AFL, I doubt he’d have been on it. I’m not suggesting he’s tired or that the assignment was a bad idea. I have no direct knowledge. His control has been adequate, and the only extra-base hits are two doubles, but opponents are hitting a garish .591 on balls in play. Maybe some bad luck. Maybe a little tiredness.

The 22-year-old Lopez missed most of 2024 to injury, has scant experience above low-A, and tends to be walk-prone even in the best of times, so I’m honestly pleased with what he’s accomplished. Lopez has a full repertoire led by a splendid curve and mid-90s heater. A project worth watching.

Stephan is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. He’s a back-of-rotation type who doesn’t strike me as someone who’d be nabbed, but I’ve been wrong before. In any case, the recent performances are heartening. Injuries have limited him to under 70 innings in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. Weems will be R5-eligible as well, unless protected, but at the not-so-tender age of 27, he’s trying to regain his footing after missing 2023 and most of 2024 to elbow surgery. He’s under control to the Rangers for another season.

Here’s the average and maximum pitch velocities for the Texas contingent. Note that not every game has data, so the actual performances could vary:

In the Fall Stars game last Saturday, Marc Church earned the save in a 6-5 win for the American League, nipping the outside edge on a slider for a game-ending strike. CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3. A fly off just off the sweet spot and a little underneath fell just short of the fence. SS Max Acosta entered mid-game and was 0-2.

Also participating in the league are former Rangers RHP Zak Kent (CLE), RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (CHW) and IF Thomas Saggese (STL).

Departed

These Texas minor leaguers became free agents recently:
LHP Grant Wolfram (AAA)
RHP Kyle Barraclough (AAA)
RHP Tim Brennan (AAA)
RHP Shane Greene (AAA)
RHP Damian Mendoza (everywhere)
RHP DJ Peters (hi-A)
RHP Adrian Sampson (AAA)
RHP Peter Solomon (AAA)
RHP Tyler Zombro (AAA)
C Jesus Moreno (low levels)
C Matt Whatley (AAA)
IF Jose Barrero (AAA)
IF Jax Biggers (AAA)
IF Alex De Goti (AAA)
OF Luis Mieses (AA)

Biggers, Brennan and Wolfram were 2018 picks who’d played out their renewal options. IF Frainyer Chavez was drafted the same year but doesn’t appear as a free agent for reasons unknown to me. A few other Rangers also should have become free agents by my reckoning, but either I’m wrong, they did and already re-signed, or they did and simply don’t appear on the transaction list yet.

Incidentally, Jose Leclerc’s free agency leaves none in the organization from the 2010-2011 World Series years. Leclerc signed in December 2010. The longevity title has passed to OF Leody Taveras, signed July 2015.

Some familiar free agents from other teams:
LHP Kolby Allard (PHI), LHP Brady Feigl (PIT), LHP Kolton Ingram (SFO), LHP CJ Widger (SEA), RHP Shaun Anderson (MIA), RHP Nabil Crismatt (SDP), RHP Alisson del Orbe (SEA, an infielder as a Ranger), RHP Robert Dugger (OAK), RHP Carl Edwards Jr., RHP Kevin Gowdy (LAD), RHP Jonathan Hernandez (SEA), RHP Spencer Howard, RHP Luis Ortiz (PHI), RHP Yerry Rodriguez (TOR), RHP Connor Sadzeck (PIT), RHP Nick Snyder (PHI), RHP Alex Speas (BOS), RHP Drew Strotman (SFO)

C Andrew Knizner (ARI), C Kevin Plawecki (SDP), C Yohel Pozo (OAK), IF Jose Acosta (MIL), IF Brendon Davis (LAD), IF Mark Mathias (CIN), OF JP Martinez (ATL), OF Nick Solak (SEA), OF Zach Reks (SDP), OF Bubba Thompson (CIN)

Not-So-Super Two

Among players with at least two but fewer than three years of service time, the most-experienced 22% qualify for an extra year of arbitration. The cutoff for 2024 was set at two years, 132 days of service time. Falling three days short: infielder Josh Smith.

That’s unfortunate for him. By my rough guess, he would have at least doubled his pay. To be clear, the Rangers did not manipulate his service time to forestall a larger salary. Smith’s contract was purchased at the end of May 2022 to replace an injured Brad Miller. Smith would be optioned in August but recalled after 19 days. He received full MLB credit for those 19 days; an option period of 20 or more days would have meant zero credit. He then spent the entirety of 2023 and 2024 on the MLB roster. Two years and 129 days would have been enough to qualify in all of the previous four years. He was just unlucky.

Just before I hit the post button, the Rangers announced Smith won the Silver Slugger award at the utility position. That would’ve played well at an arbitration hearing.

Elsewhere

Interleague play is coming to Triple A! Sort of. In 2025, Round Rock will open its home schedule against the International League’s Toledo (DET), visit Charlotte (CHW) in May, and head to St. Paul (MIN) in August.

Sugar Land has two interleague series, both on the road. The recently re-nicknamed Oklahoma City Comets have one at Memphis. Las Vegas will host Iowa (CHC), and Salt Lake will welcome Omaha (KAN).

And that’s it. The other five PCL teams and 14 of the 20 IL teams will play a standard schedule. As to why Round Rock will have 18 interleague games while 19 other AAA teams have none, I couldn’t begin to guess.

Incidentally, the schedule structure of the AAA Sacramento RiverCats hasn’t changed despite sharing their home with The Athletics. Instead, MLB successfully shoehorned the A’s into the minor leagues’ week-at-home, week-away format, so the two clubs won’t be fighting over lockers on any given day. The A’s host the Rangers in late April and the close of August. Also, Sacramento surprisingly had the most pitcher-friendly park in the PCL during the past three seasons, so it shouldn’t be another Rockies-type location, which would have been the case had the A’s made their  “temporary” home in Summerlin (outside Vegas), where their AAA affiliate plays.

The website of the defunct Down East Wood Ducks is also defunct. The site of the new Hub City Spartanburgers is fully active and integrated into the MiLB framework. Hub City will be Texas’s high-A affiliate in 2025, while Hickory will drop back to low-A, the position occupied from 2009 through 2019.

Social Butterfly

Some of you follow me on Twitter/X. I don’t post frequently in the offseason, but lately, I’ve been doing so on Bluesky. I’ve had an account there for over a year, but the network effects have been wanting. More recently, baseball-related content has improved considerably. Will Bluesky replace Twitter/X outright as the premier microblogging site? Probably not, but it might become a worthy alternative. Here’s my account.

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