Last Thursday, Texas traded OF Yeremi Cabrera, IF Gavin Fien, IF Devin Fitz-Gerald, 1B Abimelec Ortiz and RHP Alejandro Rosario to Washington for LHP MacKenzie Gore. I was in the midst of some lengthy days inspecting several south Texas ranches when the news broke. Instead of typing a draft of my trade thoughts that evening, I reviewed my notes from the work day and planned the next as I ate enchiladas at a dive in Hebbronville. Gore would have to wait.
Baseball America had Fien 3rd on the Rangers, Fitz-Gerald 8th, Rosario 13th, Cabrera 14th and Ortiz outside the top 30 (but he shouldn’t be, in my opinion). Baseball Prospectus had Fien 2nd, Rosario 3rd, Fitz-Gerald 8th, Ortiz 16th and Cabrera 18th.* MLB Pipeline hasn’t offered its prospect rankings yet.
I’ll be honest: My immediate reaction was “that’s too much to give up.” And now I’ll be really honest: My immediate reaction to such trades is always “too much” because I’m biased. I write about Texas’s prospects, and when the Rangers trade them, I have fewer to write about. Instead of watching Abi Ortiz, I’ll be largely ignoring the yet-to-be-signed AAA vet who replaces him.
Despite that bias, over the years I have moved to the belief that prospects mostly exist to be traded. I don’t mean traded willy-nilly, but since most prospects don’t pan out, a critical skill for any club is to identify the time frame in which a prospect has possibly peaked in value and then capitalize, especially when the club’s competitive window demands it.
The Rangers may have accomplished just that for as many as four of the five players involved. Maybe that’s an overstatement, but Fitz-Gerald, Cabera and Ortiz are certainly on the upswing, and Fien hasn’t been around long enough to be anything but 2025’s 12th-overall pick. That of course doesn’t mean they’re all standing next to a cliff. Fien could be a top-100 guy next year (or right now, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law). Ortiz could make Washington’s Opening Day roster with a good spring. But it’s also possible that a good number of them could have middling seasons resulting in blander reassessments come autumn.**
“Polarizing” might be too strong a description of Fien, but he does have champions (like Law) and detractors (like Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, who rated him more a comp-round pick than a top-15. Nominally a shortstop, he has the common, conjoined questions of how far he’ll slide down the defensive spectrum and whether he’ll hit well enough at his eventual resting place. The Nats obviously viewed him favorably.
A baseball player from birth, Fitz-Gerald is exceptionally polished for his age. That can sometimes be a backhanded compliment. Polish gives a player a strong leg up in the lower levels compared to those still figuring out how to play, but at the higher levels, polish-over-talent types get exposed. Fitz isn’t lacking talent, though, and has the upside of an everyday 2B or 3B. Another possibility is a super-utility role, although how super will depend on what he can offer at short. Fitz-Gerald was the 165th player taken in the 2024 draft, so in a sense, his becoming a critical piece of a major trade is already a win for the Rangers.
Rosario is the one traded at an ebb, although he still has plenty of value. Remarkably, the gap between his elbow injury and surgery will be nearly a year, and he might still be ramping up when the 2027 season starts. Remember, Rosario missed the tail of 2024 as well. He’d been promoted to AA Frisco at the beginning of September but was shut down with fatigue before making an appearance there. Rosario will have no fewer than 32 months between pitches in real games.
Incidentally, Rosario’s final low-A start in 2024 was against Washington’s Fredericksburg affiliate and witnessed by yours truly while on business in DC. It was his worst of the seasons in terms of runs allowed, but I was still dazzled. A couple of hiccups aside, his stuff was terrific, he controlled it well, and he wasn’t one of those “well… if he can figure out a change” wannabes destined for relief. This fall, he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if unprotected, and I’m inclined to think he’ll be added despite the lengthy absence, assuming the recovery proceeds as planned. His upside is that high. In a chat, Longenhagen described his ceiling as “that of a player you basically can’t acquire.”
Cabrera batted .256/.364/.366 as a 19-year-old in low-A. More power may be on the way, and he’s a strong runner (43 SB, 4 caught) and solid in center. I’d tend to think of him more as a future 4th or 5th outfielder than a regular, but everyday play is conceivable. I will say that I saw Cabrera several times in two trips to Surprise, and he never showed me anything in person. Just completely, annoyingly nondescript. That’s just bad luck, not an indication of his future. Former Texas Echedry Vargas awed me in March 2024, and a year later he was batting .201/.255/.322 in high-A. Never get too high or low on limited looks.
I was looking forward to Ortiz’s 2026, and I say that as someone who at times has been out on him as a prospect. As a Ranger, there was a scenario in which he hit well from the get-go to replace a struggling Burger or Pederson. Everyone’s production is amplified by the environment in AAA, and Ortiz did play 11 of his 38 games at Albuquerque last year, but his line of .283/.388/.565 is backed by formidable Statcast data. He was especially proficient at attacking upper-third fastballs, particularly those starting the at-bat. I did notice that, as a group, opposing pitchers never adjusted, continuing to deal his preferred offerings despite ample evidence of negative outcomes. At some point, they will, and then we’ll find out what Ortiz can really do. The Nats don’t have a set 1B right now, best as I can tell.
This was a volume trade. I would rather the Rangers send this type of package than fewer and better prospects. Texas still has Sebastian Walcott, Caden Scarborough, David Davalillo, Jose Corneill and Winston Santos. Despite relative weakness in hitting prospects, the Rangers effected a hitter-heavy package. That does leave the Rangers very light on future bats and in the short run forces us to dream harder on last year’s draft haul and January’s international intake.
I’m not going to focus as much on Gore, because you probably already know about him. Rather than write about him at length myself, I’ll recommend this deep dive by Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball.
The short version is the Gore has the makings of a top-of-rotation pitcher. Contra Texas’s reputation as a place where pitchers go to die, the Rangers actually have a several-years-long history of getting strong results from newly acquired pitchers, plus a stadium far more favorable than The Ballpark. There’s a chance Gore surpasses prior results as a Ranger. But more likely, Texas is getting a #3 type, and that’s fine. Some days you’ll be thinking Texas simply stole him form the Nats, and some days you’ll be grimacing and checking on Fien’s stats at low-A Fredericksburg.
Gore misses a ton of bats but struggles with wildness and hard contact. He has a .325 career average on opposing balls in play, about 30 points above the NL average. Regression toward the mean would seem to be in order, but he’s faced 2,300 batters, and his season-long BABIP has never been lower than .309. Moving to Texas might help some, as Washington had perennially poor defense, but at this point the safer bet might be to assume he’s an outlier.
As of now, Texas has a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Gore, Jack Leiter, and probably either Jacob Latz or Kumar Rocker. That’s pretty darn good.
What of depth? Texas has needed at least ten starters in each of the past three seasons. Even with Gore, counting up to ten with the current roster isn’t easy. Cody Bradford is hopefully back in May, Jose Corniell is knocking on the door, and Winston Santos and David Davalillo are walking up the path. The latter three are awfully green, though. There are and will be more NRIs, of course, but I’d be amenable to another MLB contract if there’s any change to spare. Imagine an injury to one of the top four during Spring Training. Suddenly, both Latz and Rocker are in the rotation, the immediate backups are Corniell and someone like Nabil Crismatt, and the rebuilt-from-scratch bullpen will be under more pressure. Texas doesn’t have to rush another signing, though, if one’s in the offing. Last year, Patrick Corbin (an unexpected godsend) was signed on March 18th in response to Jon Gray’s injury.
The Rangers badly needed a pitcher of Gore’s caliber to contend, and they got one despite monetary constraints. They gave up a lot to acquire Gore.
But not too much.
Next Time
Prospect lists, transactions, more.
* Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are worth a subscription.
** To be clear, I’m not rooting against anyone Texas traded. Quite the opposite. Trade analysis can get a little bloodless, but at the end of the day, these are actual people, and rooting against people is a bad way to go through life.
Author: scottrlucas
Rule 5 Draft Results
The Rangers began the day with six openings on the 40. That’s the most since at least 2017, the farthest back I checked.
In the MLB portion of the draft, the Rangers didn’t select or lose anyone but subsequently acquired the fifth pick via trade. 23-year-old righty Carter Baumler will attempt to win a spot in the Texas bullpen. Originally drafted in 2020’s fifth and final round by Baltimore and given 1.5 million reasons to spurn a TCU commitment, Baumler has spent more time on the shelf than the mound. From 2021 through 2024, he made a total of 21 appearances covering 49 innings. Not until 2025 did he string together a lengthy group of appearances, and even then he missed the opening month. He’s pitched only 7.2 innings above high-A, finishing 2025 with six AA relief outings.
Baumler has appeared sparingly on various prospect rankings over the years but always with caveats about his perpetually hindered development. 2025 was a major step forward, though, as his fastball graduated to middle 90s with strong induced vertical break. His primary bender is a taut low-80s curve, and he adds a slider and change. In late June, he pitched a season-high 2.1 innings with one flared hit and three strikeouts against Texas’s high-A affiliate in Spartanburg. Given the jump being asked of him, I’m congenitally disposed to say odds aren’t great that he’ll make the Opening Day roster, but he’ll be offered a full and legitimate chance.
Pittsburgh drafted Baumler and traded him to Texas for cash and 6’4” righty Jaiker Garcia, who I’ve never mentioned before. Until today, neither had anyone else I know with the exception Jamey Newberg, who typed the name in one of his missives from Fall Instructs, but only because Garcia was facing infield prospect Devin Fitz-Gerald, the focus of Jamey’s report. Garcia signed as an infielder in early 2022 but converted to the mound after one season. In 2025 as a 20-year-old, he made his stateside debut and in 19.1 rookie-level innings fanned 26 and walked 14 in 19.1 innings with a 4.66 ERA. Per Fangraphs, Garcia has touched 98 and flashed a plus changeup.
Cam Cauley remains a Ranger. In recent seasons, Baseball America has presented an initial, brief list of potential Rule 5 picks augmented to absurd proportions by the time the draft actually occurs. This year’s final list had 85 names but only one Ranger, Cauley, who wasn’t on the original shortlist but added soon after. MLB.com held Cauley in higher esteem, including him as one of only two hitters on a nine-player list televised just prior to the draft. Of 13 players selected, the only batter was Athletics catcher Daniel Susac, picked by the Twins and traded to the Giants.
In the minor league phase, the Rangers added one and lost two. Joining the organization from Boston is righty Jonathan Brand, listed at 5’9” and a stout 200 pounds. A 2022 eighth-rounder and 26 come February, Brand split most of 2025 in high-A Greenville and AA Portland, posting a 2.45 ERA with 16 walks and 59 strikeouts in 51.1 innings. He also had a lone belly-flop in AAA Worcester (5 batters, 4 runs). Brand offers a four-seamer around 91 plus a little bit of everything else. He’s not subject to any retention rules; Texas simply inherits his contract, which at the minor level could run through 2028.
Gone are RHPs Jackson Kelley (White Sox) and Kyle Larsen (Pirates). Kelley was picked out of Mercer in 2022’s 12th round. The side-armer had missed bats with abandon until 2025, when an injury kept him off the field until June, and he K’ed only 26 in 30 AA innings while also walking more than usual. He might pitch well in AAA, but reaching the Majors would really be something.
In the ’21 draft, Texas was able to sign 2nd-rounder Aaron Zavala on the cheap because of his medicals, and the Rangers spent only $135,000 combined on picks 6, 7, 9 and 10. (Incidentally, two of those reached the Majors: Chase Lee and Liam Hicks. Nice job, scouts.) Several others reaped the benefits including Larsen, who was awarded $575,000 despite his 18th-round selection. Unfortunately, Larsen has been as injury-prone as Baumler, pitching only 2.2 innings in his first three pro seasons and 96 thereafter, and he’d yet to reach high-A. Still, in a draft that is intended mostly for filling organizational holes, Larsen might actually have some upside.
Incoming
Texas has signed a few players recently. Back with the Rangers is righty reliever Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa, aka “AHT,” aka “Bubba.” He was a fringe 40 candidate after 2023, then traded for Robbie Grosssman Part II in May 2024. He didn’t pitch in any real games in 2025, and his transaction list reads oddly: temporarily inactive in March, restricted in April, released in July, out of contract until late November.
Soon-to-be-30 3B Jonah Bride hit an out-of-nowhere .276/.357/.461 in 71 games for Miami in 2024 (while managed by Skip Schumacher) but couldn’t maintain that success last year with the Fish or Twins. 31-year-old Tyler Wade has enough positional flexibility to have played in nine consecutive MLB seasons despite a career line of .216/.294/.284. Also 31, infielder (and occasional OF) Andrew Velazquez spent 2025 with the AAA club of the Yankees (.242/.304/.345 in 106 games) following occasional MLB action with the Rays, Guardians O’s and Angels during 2018-2023.
Returning after a brief spell as a free agent is catcher Cooper Johnson, who’ll share duties in Round Rock. Also back is IF Ritchie Martin, a first-rounder from 2015 swiped by Baltimore from Oakland in the 2019 Rule 5 draft. Martin stuck out the whole season but didn’t hit much, and he was playing for Gastonia in the indy Atlantic League when Texas offered him a org spot last summer.
A Momentous Contract Deadline + 40-Man Additions
Tenders
As I half-guessed, Texas concluded the work week with a net loss to the 40-man roster despite several additions. The Rangers declined arbitration to C Jonah Heim, OF Adolis Garcia, RHP Josh Sborz and RHP Jacob Webb, making them free agents. I’m not a young man and know of impermanence, but in case I ever forget, baseball is there to remind me. The Rangers are down to ten players on the 40 predating the 2023 World Series.
In July 2023, Heim suffered a torn wrist tendon sheath. The prognosis was a minimum absence of 2-3 weeks, possibly longer, possibly season-ending surgery. There was discussion of how often he’d play if he returned and whether he’d be able to swing right-handed against lefties. Not only did he return quickly and without a rehab stint, he played in 41 of the team’s final 45 games, 36 of them starting behind the plate. He then started every playoff game. He actually didn’t hit that well in the aggregate, but of course he had some critical hits and defense. A remarkable and likely career-defining run.
Heim hasn’t been the same since, offering one good month and perhaps a couple of other adequate ones in the subsequent two years. I’m the polar opposite of a general-opinion sports columnist, but if that were my job, I’d have a great narrative about how Heim left everything on the field in late 2023 and just hasn’t had anything to give since. There were arguments for keeping him next year – he wouldn’t be that expensive, and the open market and internal options are wanting – but Texas can’t stand pat after 2025.
The Rangers designated Garcia for assignment just before Spring Training in 2021, but no club made a claim, understandably. Garcia was three weeks from his 28th birthday, toolsy but with a dire BB/SO ratio and barely capable of sustaining a .300 OBP in AAA. I watched him in the “Alternate Site” minor league games that filled the gap between Spring Training and the delayed start to minor league season. Texas retrieved him during that time, and he never returned.
I don’t need to recount Garcia’s critical hits, all of which are permanently etched in your brain, occupying the cells that are supposed to remember where you left your keys. Baseball Reference has a stat called Championship Win Probability Added, which is like the standard WPA except measuring how much the playoff performance contributes to a title. It’s a squirrelly stat that ignores defense and is heavily dependent on high-leverage events (for example, Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t get much credit for his heroics), but if you want to measure players by big moments, it’s great fun. By this stat, Garcia won 35% of Texas’s 2023 championship all by himself. He had two of the top three events plus five others that increased Texas’s likelihood of winning the Series by at least 2%.
After the deeply disappointing 2024, Garcia entered this year wanting to hit 50 homers. Which… look, it’s nice to have goals, but I was just hoping for the midpoint between ’23 and ’24. Defensively, he got there, but the offense was even worse. From a purely statistical point of view, there are players so valuable defensively that even egregious offense can be overlooked. Leonys Martin (if you remember him) fit that description. But, if you’re a human running a team and filling out the card, you understandably reach a point at which you can’t tolerate what you see at the plate regardless of compensatory defense, and Garcia was reaching that point. Also, his defense was just good, not great.
Baseball Reference actually bestowed 2.7 WAR upon him in 2025, but much of that so-called value rests on an extreme park-factor calculation that makes Globe Life far more pitcher-friendly than I believe is warranted. (See the fourth paragraph and the last footnote of my article on trying to divine the actual quality of Texas’s 2025 offense.) Fangraphs has him at 0.7, which I think is closer to the “truth.” Even during 2023, I never expected Garcia to stay beyond 2026 when Texas’s control over his fate expired.
Sborz’s activation from the IL in April 2023 was unpopular in the online community. I recall some angry responses to the official announcement on twitter. My rejoinder: “I get it if you’re not a Sborz fan, but in that case you should be happy. If he’s bad he’ll be out of your life soon, if he’s good he’ll be good!” He was indeed good enough to stick, although the season was pockmarked with several bad stretches, and he ended up with a 5.50 ERA. Then, he went on an outrageous heater at the perfect time. Sborz recorded the final seven outs in the final game of the Series, and in the first four, Texas led by a lone run. He was Texas’s most valuable pitcher in the playoffs per the Championship WPA stat.
He’s pitched only 16 MLB innings since, plus 22 in the minors on rehab. I’m sad to say he really didn’t look the part while in Round Rock late last summer. I was actually wondering whether he’d be designated for assignment during that stretch, but his health was such that Texas could just keep him on the IL. I’d be happy to have him back on a minor deal.
Garcia, Heim and Sborz were at their best when Texas (and you and I) needed them most, and that’s how they should be remembered.
Emotions aside, the Webb decision is the one that’s actually perplexing to me. He was homer-prone but blandly competent and wasn’t going to cost more than around $2 million. Texas now has to replace an additional 66 innings. Pitchers who closed the 2025 season in relief for Texas and are still in the organization: Jose Cornieill, Luis Curvelo, Robert Garcia, Jacob Latz, plus the IL’ed Cole Winn. That list is why I thought Webb would be back.
Every pre-arb player was tendered, but the likelihood of all remaining on the 40 until Spring Training is approximately 0.01%.
Take a guess at which current Ranger has been on the 40-man roster the longest. Answer at bottom.
40-Man Additions
Texas added RHP David Davalillo, 1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz and RHP Leandro Lopez.
The surprising omission was IF/OF Cam Cauley. Baseball America deemed him Texas’s toughest decision, while Fangraphs called him a “must-add.” I’d downgraded him from a sure thing to more-likely-than-not in the course of developing my preview. Cauley has defensive versatility, speed and some pop, all desirable qualities in the upcoming draft, and he’s improved his strikeout rate. On the downside, his career batting average is .240, fewer Ks have not resulted in more hits, and his walk rate is bland, so he reaches base at a below-average rate. I think the argument is if he can’t post a solid OBP in AA, imagine the results against MLB pitchers in early 2026, even in a bench role. Another argument is his potential. A regular? Josh Smith-esque utility? End-of-bench up-and-down type? The further down the list we go, the less drafting him and putting up with a possibly sub-replacement 2026 makes sense. Cauley didn’t make Baseball America’s initial list of potential draft picks but will probably be added to an update. If he remains a Ranger, I expect we’ll see plenty of him in Spring Training, and he’ll have a shot to reach the Majors during the season.
The Rangers didn’t add any first-time eligibles from the 2021 or 2022 drafts, although they certainly would have added Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake, both protected after being acquired by Arizona. Remarkably, Texas is already down to just five players remaining in the system from the ’22 draft: RHP Kumar Rocker (1), RHP Brock Porter (4), IF/OF Chandler Pollard (5), RHP Luis Ramirez (7) and RHP Jackson Kelley (12). The Rangers had no second or third-round picks that year (for good reason!), and five of 18 didn’t sign, so the group was small from the jump.
Per Baseball America, only 61% of the 27 first-time-eliglble first rounders were protected league-wide, a full 10% worse than the previous low in 2018. The Royals left picks from 2021 (high-school pitcher Frank Mozzicato, 7th overall) and 2022 (college OF Gavin Cross, 9th) unprotected. The Mets didn’t add catcher Kevin Parada, loosely linked to the Rangers in 2022 and drafted 11th overall.
Answer
Ezequiel Duran was added to the 40 in November 2021. Longest in the organization is Jacob Latz, signed in June 2017.
Rangers 40 Man / Rule 5 Outlook + AFL Wrap
40 Man / Rule 5 Outlook
Tuesday is the deadline for protecting players on the 40-man roster in advance the Rule 5 draft. The Texas 40-man roster currently sits at 35 players. Nine are eligible for arbitration but not guaranteed to receive it. Another handful, including recent waiver or trade additions, are candidates for designation prior to Friday’s contract-tender deadline. So in these respects, the Rangers have generous room for prospect additions. Conceivably, Texas could have fewer than 35 on the roster by the end of business Friday.
Conversely, regardless of budget constraints, they have other additions to make. Nine pitchers departed as free agents. Guess how many pitchers Texas has on the 40 with at least 50 innings of experience and expected to be at healthy next spring? Also nine, and that includes Josh Sborz, whose arbitration status is uncertain as I type. Texas doesn’t have a roster crunch per se but can’t add players heedlessly.
Here’s my thoughts on potential 40-man additions:
RHP David Davalillo (Age 23, 1st-time eligible)
Yes. Next…
1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz (23, 2nd time)
While a late-season surge salvaged Ortiz’s 2024, I wasn’t especially enthused entering this season, and had I written this piece in late July, he would have been well down the list. He was hitting .234/.336/.411 while repeating AA as a bat-or-bust prospect, and my reaction to his early August promotion to AAA was more “might as well” than “it’s about time.” At Round Rock, he batted a revelatory .283/.388/.565 with nine homers in 41 games. Yes, a chunk of that success occurred in friendly Albuquerque, but the statcast data fully backed him up: 54% hard-hit rate, median and upper-level exit velos well above average, good launch angles, even a better-than-average whiff rate. He positively obliterated high fastballs, particularly on first pitches. I kept waiting for PCL pitchers to adjust, but they didn’t. They will eventually, so he’ll have to adjust in kind, but darned if he isn’t putting legitimate big-league punishment on the ball while maintaining his dignity against breaking stuff. I never wrote this glowingly about Blaine Crim in any R5 preview, but Ortiz at his best shines a little brighter, he bats lefty, and he can probably be indulged in RF for a spell. He certainly won’t be the most well-rounded prospect available if unprotected, which is the rationale for leaving him off. Still, I have talked myself into thinking he’ll be added.
IF/OF Cam Cauley (22, 1st)
Baseball America deemed him Texas’s toughest decision. My immediate reaction was “no, he’s on, Lopez is tougher,” but let’s have this out. On the surface the choice seems easy: Cauley runs very well, can hit for power and play short and center (and elsewhere) ably. He batted .253/.325/.448 with 15 homers and 33 other extra-base hits as a 22-year-old in Frisco, a moderately aggressive assignment given his so-so 2024 in high-A. What’s not to like? He does have a better chance at being picked than post-2024 Cody Freeman because of that versatility, but unlike Max Acosta last year and Jonathan Ornelas after 2023, Cauley hasn’t quite closed the deal. While he’s genuinely improved his contact rate, reaching base isn’t his specialty, and he could be swamped in the short run against MLB pitching. Even though I’m skeptical he could stick on an MLB roster this soon, I lean toward selection.
RHP Leandro Lopez (23, 1st)
For the first time, Lopez was fully healthy, effective and unleashed, improving his previously woeful control to shockingly well above average while broadening his repertoire. Is that enough? I have mixed feelings. It’s easy to become overly insular in this process, focusing too much on how each player rates within the organization rather than the league at large. Ortiz’s data and Cauley tools will stand out in a Rule 5 draft. Lopez, perhaps not. Most opponents have similar players with similar stories. Lopez has a variety of risks (health, control, future role), and I’d strongly prefer him being nurtured at Frisco next year and reassessed. I seriously doubt he could hold an MLB roster spot throughout 2025, an argument for leaving him off for now, and that’s where I sit today.
Wilian Bormie (24, 2nd)
Tempting. Bormie enjoyed a velocity spike in 2025, picking up four full ticks to an average of 96 and reaching triple digits on occasion. He also displayed grievous control at times. Too raw today, but one to watch in 2026.
RHP Ismael Agreda (22, 1st)
Fangraphs’ mid-season prospect list described him conditionally as an “interesting roster candidate for the offseason.” My Bormie writeup generally applies here, with the exceptions of Agreda working as a starter much of the time but spending nearly the whole season at a lower level.
LHP Robby Ahlstrom (26, 2nd)
Ahlstrom had decent results in 2025, but he’s fairly established at his point, If he didn’t force his way onto the roster during the season, I don’t know why he’d be picked now. A hot spring or in-season stretch could get him over the line.
OF Aaron Zavala (25, 2nd)
I think not, but simply entertaining the idea shows how far he’s progressed. I omitted him completely in last year’s preview, and when I saw him in late March, I thought he’d be released rather than assigned to AA for a third time. He looked no different to me than his previous two years off elbow surgery. Zavala did in fact return to Frsico, where after a month he’d drawn a ridiculous 19 walks but still wasn’t hitting (.152 average, 283 slug). Then, out of nowhere, he produced his best month in three years. His initial foray in the PCL was short and bad, but upon return, he batted .275/.388/.500 with statcast data that mostly hovered around league averages. His time in AAA also revealed a surprisingly aggressive first-strike approach, contra previous passivity.
RHP Josh Stephan (24, 2nd)
Stephan pitched last year’s Arizona Fall League championship game and was on the bubble for a 40 spot. I leaned against, and Texas declined. He reached AAA at the end of 2025 but didn’t improve his selection likelihood.
3B Gleider Figuereo (21, 1st)
Figuereo’s season resembled Sebastian Walcott in that he sustained his homer power while losing a big chunk of his doubles and triples. He didn’t have the type of season needed to earn a 40 spot. Off-topic: Figuereo is one of a large number of Spartanburger hitters who made at best tepid cases for promotion to Frisco, which is severely lacking in warm bodies at present. Some combination of semi-aggressive promotions and free agents will be necessary.
OF Trevor Hauver (26, 3rd)
No, but Hauver had a fine season in Round Rock after struggling mightily in 2024.
RHP Dylan MacLean (23, 2nd)
Returning from elbow surgery, the 2020 4th-rounder had a respectable showing at high-A Hub City but will need to do that and more in AA to receive consideration.
RHP Brock Porter (22, 1st)
To be honest, I hadn’t initially considered Porter because he was drafted out of high school in 2022, but he turned 19 two days before the cutoff, making him eligible this year to my knowledge. To be blunt, it doesn’t matter. MLB.com labeled him Texas’s toughest Rule 5 decision, but that’s just not the case. While he pitched well enough to maintain an on-field assignment in low-A after last year’s setback, that doesn’t even remotely translate to serious deliberation for a 40 spot.
LHP Bryan Magdaleno (24, 2nd)
Magdaleno’s helium rise in 2024 put him in sincere contention for a 40 spot, but Texas and the league decided to wait and watch. Unfortunately, his control worsened from mediocre (14% BB+HBP rate) to calamitous (27%).
RHP Gavin Collyer
Collyer actually became a free agent after the season. Keeping him around would have required a 40 spot before the end of the season or a new minor deal. He reaches the upper 90s and ranked very high on various “stuff” models, but that stuff didn’t get great overall results and was undercut by poor control. Collyer may yet reach his potential, but I can’t blame the Rangers for moving on.
RHP Jose Gonzalez
Another free agent who’d crossed my mind as a 40 addition during the season, and someone I’d like to have back. I’m probably overvaluing him because I’ve been up to my ears in pitchers with awful control, and his is great. He’s probably good for 100+ quality upper-level innings somewhere in 2026.
Arizona Fall League Wrap
Rangers-affiliated Surprise won the league championship tournament following a 16-10 regular season. In the final, RF Dylan Dreiling and CF Chandler Pollard entered midway and went 2-3, including Dreiling’s single to score Pollard as part of a seven-run rally.
Control has decayed in the minors, and fewer top-flight pitchers are assigned to the league than hitters. The results in 2025 were a combined walk and hit-batter rate of 17.1% and a league OBP of .391, both record highs. I’m offering a synopsis of Texas participants, but more than ever, I’d advise not reading too much into the performances.
C Malcolm Moore
69 PA, .213/.275/.328, 4 doubles, 1 HR
Moore’s first full professional season wasn’t much fun. His hard-hit rate in the fall was adequate (42% compared to the 43% league average), but that contact was concentrated in the upper 90s, so his median and upper-level exit velocity was lacking. He also couldn’t take advantage of the wildness, swinging (and missing) more than average and drawing only three walks versus 22 strikeouts.
OF Dylan Dreiling
55 PA, .271/.364/.438, 1 double, 2 triples, 1 HR
Dreiling’s fall was more fruitful and conducive to an April assignment to Frisco (to the extent the action here moves the needle). His hard-hit rate of 51% ranked 13th among 88 with at least 20 balls in play.
IF/OF Chandler Pollard
50 PA, .289/.460/.342, 2 doubles, 10 walks, 8 SB
Pollard had a nice showing for a 21-year-old with virtually no experience above low-A. He hadn’t played in real games since mid-June following an injury immediately after promotion to high-A. His 36% swing rate and 10 walks in 12 games revealed a willingness to take what was given, which was plenty.
C/1B Ben Hartl
31 PA, .125/.290/.208, 2 doubles, 4 HBP
Hartl’s statcast data was pretty grim, but he didn’t play often and I’m inclined to give him a pass. His specialty is getting hit, and he led the team with four HBP.
IF Sebastian Walcott
5 PA, .500/.600/.750, double
Walcott departed early with forearm fatigue, replaced by Pollard.
RHP Jose Corniell
18 IP, 7.50 ERA, 10% BB+HBP, 22% SO, .333/.402/.462 oppo line
Maybe I’m playing favorites, but I’m more interested in Corniell and Santos getting more post-injury work than how they performed. Fastball avg. 95.3, top 98.0, sinker 93.1, cutter 88.8, change 87.7, sweeper 81.1.
RHP Winston Santos
18.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 15% BB+HBP, 22% SO, .254/.365/.423 oppo
See above. Santos threw four-seamers 63% of the time, averaging 96 and peaking at 99.6. He added a slider (avg. 84.6) and change (87.4).
RHP Emiliano Teodo
4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 31% BB+HBP, 38% SO, .000/.313/.000 oppo
Teodo made only four appearances, none after the season’s midway point, and he walked five in four innings.
RHP Joey Danielson
6 IP, 7.50 ERA, 30% BB+HBP, 27% SO, .269/.486/.346 oppo
Danielson was a mildly surprising selection, as he’d handled a full workload by modern standards (56 relief innings) in his first season out of college. His control faltered near midseason and was worse than ever in the AFL. His velocity was fine (95 four-seamer and sinker, 89 cutter, 86 sinker). Rest, then regroup.
LHP Kolton Curtis
7.2 IP, 11.74 ERA, 24% BB+HBP, 20% SO, .314/.478/.400
Curtis’s change and slider generated a huge miss rate but not a huge miss total, because batters weren’t compelled to swing very often. The 21-year-old has potential but lacks control, and the tougher environment (both in competition and physics) was just too much right now.
Staying
RHP Trey Supak, RHP Peyton Gray and IF Richie Martin have re-signed. All finished last season at Round Rock.
The Rangers Had An Average(ish) Offense In 2025
I promise that wasn’t a clickbait headline, because I don’t operate that way, plus you’re already here. Let’s runs some numbers.
Texas scored 4.22 runs per game compared to an AL average of 4.42. Globe Life, however, was historically pitcher-friendly in 2025. Here’s Texas’ Lowest Single-Year Park Factors For Runs (100 = neutral):
Single-year factors can be noisy, so using multi-year averages is better. How to weigh prior (and even subsequent) years is a judgment call, but when I give half credit to 2025 and half to the previous two years combined, I get a multi-year factor of 94.7.1 The AL average was 4.42 runs per game. Applying the multi-year park factor results in a league-average rate of 4.19 runs per game, the lowest for the Rangers in 44 years. I’d say this contributes strongly to the perception of the offense. The park-adjusted league average runs per game during The Ballpark In Arlington era (1994-2019) was 5.04. The difference between an average offensive season then and in 2025 is a whopping 137 runs.2
The Rangers scored 4.22 runs per game versus the park-adjusted average of 4.19, so by my accounting, they actually scored five more runs than average. If you think that sounds crazy, Baseball Reference has a multi-year park factor of just 89, which would place the offense firmly in above-average territory and on equal footing with the pitching! That factor is incredibly low and based on a methodology that troubles me.3 Fangraphs has a three-year park factor of 97, which appears to be a simple average of the previous three years. Regardless, the conclusion is that the Texas offense wasn’t that bad. It certainly was early in the season, but on the whole, it ended up more-or-less average.
This doesn’t make me feel any better about the season. Quite the opposite. It’s the sour cherry atop the Sundae of Frustration that was 2025.
The Rangers didn’t have so much a scoring problem as a distribution problem. Foremost, they were 21-29 in one-run games, exceptionally unlucky for a team that outscored its opponents. Also, when they scored seven or more runs, the opposition averaged only 3.35 runs per game. When they scored six or fewer, the opposition averaged 3.82, nearly half a run greater.
Compared to the rest of the league, the Rangers allowed an additional 0.64 runs per game when which they didn’t score as much. Only three teams (Athletics, White Sox, Astros) had a bigger margin. Note that this is just bad luck, not a flaw to be corrected. It’s not as though a team knows in advance how many runs in a season it will allow and can manipulate their apportionment to individual games. The Rangers had a .397 winning percentage when they scored six or fewer, actually a middle-of-the-pack rate, but all twelve playoff teams were better.
The Rangers were the only team in baseball without a win when the opposition scored at least seven runs. Honestly, winning the occasional slugfest pales in importance to how often a team allows that many runs in the first place. You’d much rather be 0-16 (Texas) than 2-51 (Athletics), but still, Texas is only one of two teams in the past five years without a single victory of this type in a season.
As you’d expect, Texas was shut out more than average, although not at a franchise-historic level.
Incidentally, Texas’s best seasons at avoiding shutouts were 2001 (1 shutout, 87% less than league average) and 2022 (4, 65% less). Both were losing seasons.
A big problem, especially from an emotional viewpoint, is that Texas genuinely did come out of the gate limping and spent most of the season playing catch-up. Here’s Texas’s worst in-season 54-game stretches (one-third of a season) in terms of runs scored versus the league average:
Texas didn’t reach a league-average level until Game 135, following a 20-3 banishment of the Angels.
The biggest problem is that hit-first additions Jake Burger and Joc Pederson were supposed to provide improvement over 2024, and instead they were very bad. Also bad: Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Zeke Duran, the expelled Leody Taveras. That’s a lot of bad.
As for the 81-81 record, the rotation was blameless. The bullpen was pretty good in the aggregate, less so in the specifics. There were 452 events in MLB last year that changed a team’s win probability by at least 33%. Of these, Texas’s bullpen had the second-most events and the third-worst cumulative win probability. Much of that is a function of opportunity. By virtue of so many low-scoring games, Texas’s bullpen faced more higher-leverage situations than most teams. It’s understandable that Texas wouldn’t rank well in negative events. Still, a few less instances of this sort would have translated directly into a few more wins.
And that’s where we’re at. Some better one-run luck, one or two fewer shutouts, one or two fewer bullpen meltdowns, a couple of crazy 10-8 wins, and voila, we’ve a playoff team.
In 2022, Texas was 68-94 despite being outscored by only 36 runs, courtesy of a 15-35 record in one-run games. That underperformance did result in the firings of the president and manager, but I did not enter the offseason thinking Texas would be trying to build on a 68-win season. Instead, the club felt much more like it had won 77, it’s most likely number based on run differential.
Not so in 2025. Despite all I’ve said, I’m not telling you to believe me and ignore your lying eyes. Despite park factors, distribution issues and bad luck bearing at least as much responsibility for Texas’s offensive malaise as the players themselves, the Rangers definitely did not feel to me like an 89-win team that was simply unlucky. 81 wins felt like an accurate account of the season and the state of the franchise at present. Put another way, how does “Texas’s offense was just unlucky, just stand pat and things should even out” sound? Terrible, right?
I haven’t delved deeper than runs scored because this is already too long, but Texas had a 95 OPS+ by my accounting. That’s a better starting point to me, and honestly, even that seems a bit generous. There’s work to do.
Footnotes:
1. In my personal stat analysis, I also give a little credit to the subsequent year, but for my 2025 multi-year factor I have to wait for 2026 to play out.
2. If you’re unfamiliar with park factors and think “well of course the park wasn’t hitter-friendly, because the offense was so terrible,” that’s understandable, but that’s not how they work. Factors don’t care about quality, they just measure the combined output from both teams in the home park versus output in all the road parks. And in fact, the Texas offense alone didn’t stray that far from neutral, scoring 327 runs at home versus 357 on the road. It was the pitching that created such a pronounced difference, with 250 runs allowed at home versus 355 on the road.
3. Baseball Reference excludes interleague games in their calculations for the stated reasons of no DH in the NL and absence of home-and-home series in interleague contests. The first reason is no longer valid. The second is still mostly valid (teams do have one interleague home-and-home each year; for example, Texas and Arizona in 2025), but I think the solution of ignoring those games is worse than the problem of keeping them. Interleague games are 30% of the schedule. 48 games are an awful lot to ignore. As I said, park factors are “noisy,” and limiting the calculations to 114 games exacerbates that problem. As it happened, the Rangers and their NL opponents tended to score much more in Texas’s park than on the road in 2025, so ignoring those games tilts the park factor even more toward pitcher-friendliness. That’s why BR’s factor is so low. Keeping interleague games in the mix, as I did, implies some assumptions about NL vs. AL parks that may not be wholly accurate, but I prefer the extra data. Note that park factors are already slightly askew because the calculations assume a balanced schedule, which isn’t the case.
Rangers Post-WS Roster Moves
The 40
During Game 7, Texas had 47 players on the 40-man roster including seven on the 60-day Injured List. So, management has a bear of a task to whittle the number to something reasonable to accommodate 40-man additions and free agents, right?
Actually, no. Texas had an MLB-high 12 free agents, so the roster has already decreased to 35. The Rangers acquired two players via waivers or trade from the A’s (catcher Willie MacIver and RHP Michel Otanez) but also removed OFs Dustin Harris and Billy McKinney.
Six Rangers are within multi-year deals: de Grom, Eovaldi, Higashioka, Pederson, Seager, Semien
Nine are arbitration-eligible: RHP Josh Sborz (3rd and final time), RHP Jacob Webb (2nd), C Jonah Heim (3rd/final), IF Jake Burger (1st), IF Ezequiel Duran (1st), OF Adolis Garcia (3rd/final), OF Sam Haggerty (3rd/final). IF Josh Jung (1st), and IF Josh Smith (1st, after narrowly missing Super-2 status last year).
Garcia regained about three-quarters of his 2023 form on defense but endured his worst-ever season at the plate. He ranked 137th of 145 qualifiers in Fangraphs’ batting runs. MLB Trade Rumors projected a 2026 arbitration salary of $12.6 million. Seeing that figure drew an immediate and audible “yipes” from me, not that any amount, even the maximum discount, would have elicited a “yes!”
Heim’s projected salary is a more tolerable $6 million. His decision is complicated by a poor market for substitutes and utter lack of ready options on the farm. Still, among the 49 catchers with a combined 400+ plate appearances that past two seasons, Heim ranks dead last in batting runs and 45th in WAR (per Fangraphs). There’s an argument for non-tendering Heim without an obvious successor and picking the hottest of next spring’s depth signings for MLB work. The resulting production wouldn’t be any better, but it might not be much worse and would save several million that could be put to use elsewhere.
Sborz will live in our hearts forever, but the blunt truth is he’s rarely been both healthy and effective, and he wasn’t close to MLB-readiness late last season. I’d be more inclined to work out a minor deal, if possible. I’d expect offers forthcoming for Jung and Burger, disappointing though they were. Not to make excuses, but Burger endured a lot mentally and physically in 2025 and deserves some sympathy, if not an outright mulligan.
20 Rangers are under team control: pitchers Cody Bradford, Marc Church, Jose Corniell, Luis Curvelo, Robert Garcia, Dom Hamel, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Michel Otanez, Kumar Rocker, Winston Santos, Emiliano Teodo and Cole Winn, catcher Willie MacIver, IFs Justin Foscue and Cody Freeman, and OFs Evan Carter, Michael Helman, Wyatt Langford and Alejandro Osuna.
I suppose all could be tendered, although a few have tenuous holds on their spots and would be ripe for designation or trade as Texas fills the roster.
The just-acquired MacIver is catching depth. He reached the Majors at the age of 28 and batted .186/.252/.324 with three homers in 111 trips to the plate. His production in AAA was much better, if also inflated by Las Vegas. Otanez had a solid if walk-prone MLB debut in 2024 but was beset by injuries and ineffectiveness last season. He deals an upper-90s 4-seamer/sinker combo plus a slider. We’ll see whether the Rangers attempt to sneak them (and last-September claim Dom Hamel) through waivers.
I’d written this before Harris was designated: “Harris had a vastly improved second half in AAA and earned a return to the 40, but the underlying metrics were still frustratingly underwhelming.” Even at his best, he just wasn’t putting much oomph on the ball. He’s still a worthy depth signing, though.
As for potential 40 additions, I’ll deal with them later, but in general the “40-man roster crunch” is the least crunchy in memory. Texas has unusual leeway to add marginal cases, although that doesn’t mean you’ll see a glut of additions.
Texas Minor League Free Agents
The following were originally signed by Texas or had been in the system long enough to be a “Texas guy:”
LHP: Jose Gonzalez, Avery Weems
RHP: Ben Anderson, Geraldo Carrillo, Gavin Collyer, Ryan Garcia, Nick Lockhart, Florencio Serrano
C: Cooper Johnson
IF: Jax Biggers
OF: Marcus Smith, Kellen Strahm
This is the official release list; some others who are eligible (to my knowledge) do not appear. Collyer drew some attention with his upper-90s stuff, and I suppose he had a shot at being added to the 40 to prevent him from walking. Unfortunately, his control was quite poor, and unlike, say, prime-era Demarcus Evans or Joe Barlow, those extra baserunners tended to haunt him. Gonzalez signed in 2019 but didn’t begin making a name for himself until 2024; he’s a low-key back-end/long prospect who I’d be happy to have back.
Weems was part of the Lance Lynn trade. Garcia was Texas’s second-round pick in 2019. Unfortunately, my main memory of him is throwing 110 pitches on three days rest in the NCAA tournament after he’d been drafted. Lockhart drew an outsized signing bonus as an 11th-rounder in 2019 but missed almost all of 2024-2025 to injuries. Texas was able to nab the highly regarded Serrano after MLB nullified his contract with the Cubs due to signing bonus shenanigans, but his years in Texas weren’t noteworthy beyond low-A.
Also becoming free agents: LHP Ty Blach and Michael Plassmeyer, RHP Cory Abbott, Aidan Anderson, Joe Barlow and Cal Quantrill, C Elih Marrero and Omar Narvaez, IF Alex De Goti and Alan Trejo, and OF Luis Mieses.
Elsewhere
Baltimore signed OF Leody Taveras to a $2 million MLB deal. Tampa Bay declined the $11 option on reliever Pete Fairbanks. Caleb Boushley became a free agent after being outrighted.
Pitchers CD Pelham, Jonathan Hernandez, Antoine Kelly, Abdiel Mendoza, Nick Starr and Owen White, C Sam Huff, IF Jonathan Ornelas, Nick Solak, and David Wendzel, and OF Delino DeShields became free agents. San Diego released LHP Wes Benjamin.
9/9: Hub City Playoff Preview
PLAYOFF PREVIEW: HIGH-A SOUTH ATLANTIC LEAGUE SEMIFINALS
Hub City Spartanburgers (65-66) vs. Tampa Bay-affiliated Bowling Green Hot Rods (69-61)
Season Run Differential: Hub City -1, Bowling Green +63
Last 20 Games: Hub City 10-10, Bowling Green 11-9
Season Series: Bowling Green 6-5
How They Got Here
Bowling Green solely owned the first-half lead for the last 3.5 weeks but never by more than two games, holding off Hub City and a Greenville squad that faltered late.
With 13 games to play in the second half, Hub City, Bowling Green and Greenville were tied at 27-26. The Spartanburgers led by two games entering the final series but lost four of six while Bowling Green won five to capture the second-half title. Hub City still advanced because of the second-best second-half record (34-32). Greenville (66-66) would have advanced instead of Hub City under the old playoff rules that used the second-best full-season record.
History
2025 is Hub City’s inaugural season. Texas’s high-A squad was eliminated in the opening rounds of 2023 and 2019 following league championships by Down East (2017) and 2016 (High Desert).
Bowling Green’s history is formidable, including three Sally titles in the four seasons since realignment. Prior to 2020, the Hot Rods were a perennially strong low-A entry.
Top 30 Active Prospects Per MLB.com
Hub City:
#8 RHP Caden Scarborough
#11 C Malcolm Moore
#16 OF Dylan Dreiling
#23 RHP Kolton Curtis
#29 OF Maxton Martin
Bowling Green:
#6 OF Aidan Smith
#10 RHP Trevor Harrison
#11 RHP Santiago Suarez
#12 RHP Jose Urbina
#13 RHP Gary Gill Hill
#27 C Nathan Flewelling
#28 MIF Emilien Pitre
#29 MIF Adrian Santana
Offense / Possible Position Players
C Malcolm Moore / Ben Hartl
1B Arturo Disla / Rafe Perich
2B John Taylor / Casey Cook
3B Gleider Figuereo / Rafe Perich
SS Luke Hanson / John Taylor
LF Casey Cook / Yeison Morrobel
CF Dylan Dreiling
RF Maxton Martin / Antonis Macias
Sorry, but this is a bland offense. The Burgers scored 6% fewer runs than the league average with a 95 OPS+ and didn’t do anything well except avoid strikeouts. 3B Gleider Figuereo (.201/.287/.353) led the club with 18 homers but hit only three in 36 games after the All-Star break. Malcolm Moore (.198/.293/.271) sneaked in a nice week in August but otherwise struggled after returning from a broken finger. Rafe Perich (.202/.322/.274) didn’t hit much after being promoted, and Yeison Morrobel (.170/.248/.278) declined in a repeat at this level.
The good news is that both 2025 2nd-rounder Dylan Dreiling (.226/.319/.381) and 3rd-rounder Casey Cook (.205/.302/.294) were better down the stretch. Dreiling had the team’s most homers (four) after the break and pushed his season OPS+ to 113. Newcomer Maxton Martin (.258/.347/.445 including Hickory) hit well after his promotion from Hickory. Ben Hartl (.245/.389/.305 including Hickory) is the #2 catcher but also the best on-base threat thanks to 33 walks and 32 (!) HBP in 337 trips to the plate, mostly in low-A. 1B/COF Quincy Scott (.231/.328/.321) was activated from a lengthy IL stint today; he’s yet another slightly-below-average hitter but an improvement on Morrobel and can swipe a base.
Paxton Kling played only 11 games with the Burgers, but his injury last week brought wholesale changes to the defensive alignment. Casey Cook spent his entire season at second or short until last Friday, when he made the first of three straight starts in left (his most common position at UNC in his draft year). John Taylor started the final three games at second, which he’d manned before but never that frequently. Dylan Dreilng shifted back to center, which he’d typically occupied before Kling’s arrival.
Hub City will bat Macias, Dreiling, Moore, Hartl (DH), Martin, Cook, Figuereo, Taylor and Hanson. I’m happy to say that for fun, I played manager this morning and made my own lineup, and it was nearly identical with the primary exception of moving Moore to the bottom.
Bowling Green outscored the league average by 9%. Other than leading the league in walks, the offense isn’t especially dynamic, but they do everything pretty well and it adds up. 40-steal batters are CF Aidan Smith (.237/.331/.388, 14 HR), SS Adrian Santana (.263/.324/.326) and OF Mac Horvath (.233/.333/.395, 16 HR). 2B Emilien Pitre (.268/.356/.393, 9 HR, 14 SB) is good all-around.
Pitching / Possible Rotation (* equals guess based on past use)
Hub City:
SP1: Dylan MacLean (3.34 ERA, .200/.243/.366 oppo, 6% BB+HBP, 23% SO)
SP2: Caden Scarborough (0.00 ERA, .133/.204/.133 oppo, 8% BB+HBP, 39% SO)
SP3: Dalton Pence (1.55 ERA, .192/.259/.234 oppo, 9% BB+HBP and 28% SO)
MacLean isn’t the big name but is a capable starter, one of the only pitchers on the staff with good control. Aidan Curry, ordinarily the starter for Hub City’s second game of the week, is being skipped to push up Scarborough and Pence, who will still be pitching on normal rest because of a day off Wednesday. Scarborough has been indomitable, and Pence has adapted well to a starting role. Curry has been better since returning from an Arizona reboot, but Hub City has its three best starters lined up. Hopefully, they can be pushed a little harder than usual under the circumstances, because…
Hub City’s relief corps is worryingly thin. Gone are Erik Loomis, Wilian Bormie, Joey Danielson and Josh Mollerus. To a man, the relievers have distressing control, in aggregate a BB+HBP rate of over 20%. Victor Simeon got most of the save chances down the stretch but walked or hit 49 and unleashed 11 wild pitches in 44.2 IP. Simeon does miss bats, though (32% rate), and relying on him and the other high-K guys (Jesus Gamez, Case Matter, Adrian Rodriguez) might be a path forward.
Bowling Green:
SP1*: Trevor Harrison (3.33 ERA, .258/.362/.360 oppo, 15% BB+HBP, 24% SO)
SP2*: Marcus Johnson (4.50 ERA, .292/.314/.484 oppo, 3% BB+HBP, 24% SO)
SP3*: Garrett Gainey (3.29 ERA, .213/.265/.339 oppo, 7% BB+HBP, 23% SO)
Bowling Green’s run prevention was above average, but opponents batted .237 and slugged .374, both among the worst figures in the league. The Hot Rods were shockingly homer-prone, easily worst in the league, and they weren’t strong in strikeouts. They’re superior at avoiding walks, one of the best teams I’ve encountered. This does leave an opening for Hub City’s hitters, who as a group don’t have good power but don’t strike out much. A line of attack could be putting a bunch of balls in play, potentially stringing together some hits and maybe launching a few.
Drew Dowd (2.60 ERA, .196/.268/.286, 9% BB+HBP, 32% SO) was the save leader down the stretch and hasn’t allowed a run in 20 innings. Noah Beal and Seth Chavez were the busiest relievers; neither was especially effective. As a group, the BG pen has less upside but more stability. This afternoon, Bowling Green received relievers Jonathan Russell and Jadon Berkovich both of whom pitched well for low-A Charleston.
Defense
Hub City’s defense isn’t a weakness, but Bowling Green is better in several respects such as converting double play opportunities, limiting the running game and avoiding errors.
Advantages
Hitting – Bowling Green
Pitching – Hub City (rotation), Bowling Green (bullpen)
Defense – Bowling Green
Park Factor
Both parks are dead average.
Outlook
If I had to put $100 on the series, first I’d question my life choices, and then I’d pick Bowling Green. They’re better on paper. That said, this series is roughly the equivalent of the Royals facing the Mets. Hub City emerging victorious isn’t a stretch.
Most Recent Texas-Affiliated Championship Teams
AAA: 1996 Oklahoma City 89ers
AA: 2022 Frisco RoughRiders
Hi-A: 2017 Down East Wood Ducks (co-champion)
Lo-A: 2015 Hickory Crawdads
Short-A: 2008 Spokane Indians (RIP)
Rookie: 2019 Rangers
DSL: 2014 Rangers
Elsewhere
Tampa Bay claimed RHP Caleb Boushley. Trey Supak (AAA) and Josh Trentadue (AA) are starting tonight. Hickory’s season is over.
Rangers Farm Report: Games of Wednesday 13 August
Box Scores
AAA: Round Rock 1, Sacramento (SFO) 0
Round Rock: 11 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Record: 21-18, 6 GB, 55-59 overall
SP Ben Anderson: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 67 P / 41 S, 3.97 ERA
RP Jacob Latz: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.08 ERA
RP Jose Ruiz: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.60 ERA
RP Craig Kimbrel: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 4.26 ERA
3B Cody Freeman: 3-3, BB, .338/.385/.548
LF Alejandro Osuna: 1-3, BB, .295/.475/.432
Craig Kimbrel had a little more pep in his throws last night, averaging 93.5 on the fastball instead of the usual 92.5. I’d bet that even among serious baseball fans, few know he’s pitching for Texas’s AAA squad. I suppose that slightly increases the chance of another team wanting to take a chance on him and/or the likelihood of him trying to extend his career into 2026.
This week is a reunion of sorts, with former Rangers Sam Huff and Osleivis Basabe in town for Sacramento.Huff lasted two months on the Giants’ roster as an ill-used #2 catcher (53 PA in 58 team games) before being outrighted, which was much more of an opportunity he’d have received in Texas. Basebe was outrighted as well after being traded from Tampa Bay in February.
The Nationals designated 1B Nathaniel Lowe for assignment. His power remains, but after four seasons as an OBP source with Texas that percentage plummeted to .293 in Washington.
AA: Frisco 6, Midland (ATH) 4
Frisco: 12 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 8 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 18-23, 8 GB, 56-53 overall
SP Leandro Lopez: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 35 P / 18 S, 2.35 ERA
RP Larson Kindreich: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 3.18 ERA
SS Sebastian Walcott: 1-4, BB, .238/.336/.377
LF Keith Jones II: 1-3, HR (2), BB, .191/.269/.319
C Julian Brock: 3-4, 2B
Neither I nor faithful readers need a reminder of Leandro Lopez’s eccentricity, but he provided one anyway. He walked the first two batters and was eventually pulled seven pitches into his seventh batter with a 2-2 count.
If you’re wondering whether Sebastian Walcott is injured because his name hasn’t appeared lately, no, he’s just been quiet. Walcott ended a 22-game streak without an extra-base hit a month, but now he’s in another of 13, during which he’s hitting .140/.260/.140. Following a two-homer game on May 30, he’s slugging .301 with eight extra-base hits in 53 games.
Hi-A: wet
Two today.
Lo-A: Hickory 2, at Charleston (TAM) 3
Hickory: 9 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 6 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 26-18, 5 GB, 59-50 overall
SP Jesus Lafalaise: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 3 SO, 73 P / 40 S, 2.79 ERA
RP Brock Porter: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.43 ERA
RF Paxton Kling: 3-4
C Josh Springer: 2-3, 2B, .188/.263/.250
Paxton Kling delivered again, lining twice and beating out a grounder for singles. Josh Springer doesn’t have much of a line yet in six games but has only fanned once after doing so just nine times in 133 trips to the plate at the complex (.284/.364/.388).
Today’s Starters
AAA: Supak
AA: Davalillo
Hi-A: Curry / TBD
Lo-A: Scarborough
Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The 2021 Frisco RoughRiders had the second-best pitching staff during 2007-2024 of any Texas team and was 28th-best of 794 teams in Texas-affiliated leagues in that span.
Runs allowed: 4.3 per game, 14% better than park-adjusted league average
ERA-: 86
FIP-: 91
Opposing OPS+: 88
What you saw in Frisco after a year lost to covid:
— The best minor league season from Cole Winn (78 innings, 38 hits, 2.31 ERA)
— AJ Alexy’s professional peak (50 innings, 30 hits, 1.61 ERA)
— 14 wonderful starts from Yerry Rodriguez (59 innings, 38 hits, 2.63 ERA)
— 13 strong starts from Hans Crouse (51 IP, 27 hits, 3.35 ERA), until he was traded
— Four walks and 41 strikeouts in 34.2 innings from Cody Bradford (3.89 ERA)
— Dominant relief from Nick Snyder (16 IP, 25 SO, 1.65 ERA), Daniel Robert (17 IP, 31 SO, 2.08 ERA), Cole Uvila (31 IP, 42 SO, 2.90 ERA), Scott Engler (19 IP, 32 SO, 3.20 ERA) and Joe Gatto (18 IP, 25 SO, 0.98 ERA)
— A stretch of eight appearances with 9.2 nearly perfect innings from Chase Lee (1 hit, 1 walk, 16 strikeouts)
— A 2.79 ERA in 9.2 innings from catcher Jordan Procyshen
Despite a modestly hitter-friendly park, Frisco led the “Double-A Central”* in runs allowed, walks (barely) and hits (by a mile). 15 pitchers would eventually reach the Majors.
The team was only 64-55 because of a flat offense (98 OPS+ but last in OBP, 7% fewer runs than average). Alas, the pitching responsible for a positive record couldn’t quite get the Riders into the playoffs. Frisco could have advanced with a victory in the finale at Amarillo, and the offense was up to task, rallying from a four-run deficit to take a 10-7 lead in he 9th. Chase Lee had already retired four batters but stayed in, and as he exceeded his career-high in pitches, Amarillo’s Ryder Jones sent the game to extras with a three-run homer. Frisco scored one in the 10th, after which Daniel Robert came on despite having thrown 21 pitches the days before. (Frisco was pretty much out of viable options and had been leaning on him and Lee heavily down the stretch.) Robert threw six pitches, resulting in a double, hit-by-pitch, groundout and season-ending three-run homer. Gut: wrenched.
* Remember when MLB usurped control of minor league operations but didn’t have the naming rights, so they had to use placeholder names? Those were good times.**
** No, they weren’t.
Rangers Farm Report: Games of Tuesday 12 August
Rankings
MLB.com’s updated top-thirty list places Hub City catcher Malcolm Moore at #11, noting he was “getting too passive at times and having trouble turning on pitches.” I haven’t witnessed enough at-bats to judge the “turning” part, but I did mention a while back that he had more opposite-field balls in play than pulled, which wasn’t what I expected even from an “all fields” hitter. Baseball America re-rated him 13th. These rankings are harsher than my “slightly down” assessment from last month, in which I was giving him the benefit of the doubt because of an injury that sidelined him for a long while.
Both MLB and Baseball America ranked Texas 26th in organizational talent. I don’t follow other system in nearly the depth to judge. Instead, I tend to view the system by comparison to past years, and in that respect, I can’t offer much disagreement. Systems have cycles, and we’re in a down period. Some of that is graduations, but not having Alejandro Rosario, Winston Santos, and (for most of the season) Emiliano Teodo is a blow, as are the first full seasons from top 2024 picks Moore and Dylan Dreiling.
Deadline trades weakened the system as well. Ignoring for the moment the players acquired, I do think the answer to “should Texas have traded” is a strong yes. The team is built to win now and should be supported accordingly. Yes, it’s more fun to see Texas’s prospects grow up and graduate as Rangers, but to be perfectly blunt, back-of-the-rotation candidates are born to be traded. The success rate for these types isn’t good; better to capitalize on their value as prospects if the parent club has a chance at a playoff run.
Box Scores
AAA: Round Rock 1, Sacramento (SFO) 3
Round Rock: 4 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 20-18, 6 GB, 54-59 overall
SP Michael Plassmeyer: 5.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 8 SO, 85 P / 58 S, 4.77 ERA
RP Gavin Collyer: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
1B Cody Freeman: 2-4, .332/.379/.544
RF Abi Ortiz: 1-3, BB, .429/.571/1.000
Since returning to Round Rock, Cody Freeman has played once at first (yesterday), twice at second, thrice in left, and nine times at third. He’s played occasionally at short but mostly in May and not once since the beginning of July.
AA: Frisco 7, Midland (ATH) 4
Frisco: 9 hits, 13 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 7 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 17-23, 8 GB, 55-53 overall
SP Josh Trentadue: 2.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 63 P / 34 S, 6.10 ERA
RP Emiliano Teodo: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 18.00 ERA
RP Geraldo Carillo: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.25 ERA
C Ian Moller: 2-3, 2 BB, .232/.321/.333
In his third AA appearance, Josh Trentadue allowed his fewest runs but had to deal with a bunch of traffic, leaving the bases loaded in the 2nd and needing reliever Ryan Lobus to grab the last out with the bases juiced against in the 3rd. In his first appearance in over two months, Emiliano Teodo allowed four of seven batters to reach and missed on nearly half his pitches. Frisco did win, though, thanks to a bounty of hits from some of the returning free agents I mentioned recently (Keyber Rodriguez, jax Biggers, Frainyer Chavez).
Hi-A: Hub City 0, at Brooklyn (NYM) 3
Hub City: 4 hits, 3 walks, 15 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
Record: 22-21, 1.5 GB, 53-55 overall
SP Dylan MacLean: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 59 P / 40 S, 3.43 ERA
RP Jesus Gamez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.59 ERA
3B Gleider Figuereo: 3-4, 2 2B, .212/.293/.379
My rankings piece above was originally here because 1) this game was a dud, and 2) Malcolm Moore plays for Hub City. I decided it was worth moving to the top, but as for this game, I don’t have anything to add to the basic stats.
Lo-A: Hickory 6, at Charleston (TAM) 0
Hickory: 11 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 26-17, 5 GB, 59-49 overall
SP Enrique Segura: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 65 P / 47 S, 3.91 ERA
RP Frank Martinez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 6.00 ERA
RP Grant Cherry: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 5.00 ERA
RP William Privette: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 4.78 ERA
LF Maxton Martin: 2-4, 2B, BB, .265/.348/.454
DH Braylin Morel: 2-4, HR (2), .216/.259/.392
RF Paxton Kling: 2-4, 2B
1B Pablo Guerrero: 3-4, 2B, .207/.300/.315
In his pro debut, 7th-rounder Paxton Kling lined a single and double with a simple, compact swing absent any leg kick. Braylin Morel powered a fly over the fence in left-center despite s slight lunge in his swing.
When Enrique Segura’s BB+HBP rate is less than one per nine batters, his ERA is 2.10. When it’s over, 5.81. I know “walks bad” isn’t terribly insightful, but batters at this level aren’t having much success when they have to swing (.202 bat, .271 slug), so his success really does hinge on control.
23-year-old Frank Martinez improved on a one-frame, two-run low-A debut last week. At the complex, he had a 4.35 and 34 strikeouts in 31 innings, prone to extra-base hits (one per trip through the order) but only doubles and triples. He signed in 2023.
Today’s Starters
AAA: B. Anderson
AA: Lopez
Hi-A: Curry
Lo-A: Lafalaise
8/12: Rangers Farm Report
The farm had yesterday off, but as a treat, I’ve written a bonus history lesson to fill a gap in my coverage.
Transactions
OF Evan Carter is on rehab with Frisco. RHP Emiliano Teodo is active in Frisco. He’s been on the IL since the beginning of June. 2025 seventh-round OF Paxton Kling was activated at low-A Hickory.
Rangers Minor League History 2007-2024
When I decided to replace the “Five Years Ago” entries with “Rangers Minor League History” for this season, I quickly settled on various categories covering team and individual performances. Last week, I realized I was inadvertently omitting one of the most amazing teams from the Rangers or any other club: the swingin’ Hickory Crawdads of 2013.
At the time, Texas’s low-A roster was often the most anticipated during Spring Training, as the Rangers were (in)famous for aggressive assignments. Hickory’s offense would have six teenagers plus another (Jorge Alfaro) who was 20 at the mid-season point but 19 when the season started. Hickory’s offense averaged 20.3 years of age, 1.4 below the league average.
The season began innocently enough, but the Crawdads soon began hitting homers at an absurd rate: 42 in a 20-game span. In mid-May, Hickory had 53 in 31 games. Lakewood had eight.
At some point I wondered how Hickory was tracking historically and created a chart (below) measuring their progress against the most prolific low-A team I could find, the 1998 Macon Braves, who hit 173. When the first half concluded, Hickory already had 106 homers. The Crawdads would slow in the second half and threatened to fall below the pace, but 28 homers in the final 18 games would clinch the record with a total of 178.
As a team, Hickory was equivalent to Babe Ruth in the early 1920s. The average Sally League opponent hit 70 homers. Again, Hickory had 178. Adjusted for a hitter-friendly park, Hickory hit 93% more homers than the league average. No other team in my database is even close. Here’s the top five in homers (relative to park and league) in all full-season leagues during 2007-2024 in which the Rangers played.
Admittedly, Hickory’s park was especially generous in 2018 (factor 1.18), but their power was genuine. The Crawdads hit more homers on the road than the totals of nine opponents:
108, Greensboro
105, Asheville
100, HICKORY HOME
97, Charleston
82, West Virginia
78, HICKORY ROAD
67, Augusta
62, Kannapolis
60, Greenville
60, Rome
59, Lexington
57, Delmarva
56, Hagerstown
50, Savannah
49, Lakewood
Joey Gallo became the first teenager to hit 40 minor league homers since Dick Simpson of the Class C San Jose Bees in 1962. Gallo’s 38 homers in Hickory were two shy of Russ Branyan’s Sally-best 40 in 1996. (He also hit two in Arizona on rehab.)
Here’s a list ranked by homers of the best performer for each team in the league plus every Crawdad who hit equal to or more than the “worst” team leader:
1. Joey Gallo, 38
2. Ryan Rua, 29
3. Viosergy Rosa (MIA), 23
4. Lewis Brinson, 21
5. Greg Bird (NYY), 20
6. Francisco Sosa (COL), 20
9. Brandon Miller (WAS), 18
10. Stetson Allie (PIT), 17
11. Nick Williams, 17
12. Jorge Alfaro, 16
17. Nomar Mazara, 13
17. David Chester (BOS), 13
17. Mitch Delfino (SFO), 13
17. Fred Ford (KAN), 13
24. Jason Coats (CHW), 12
26. Art Charles (PHI) 11
26. Josh Elander (ATL), 11
31. Eudy Pina (NYM), 10
35. David Lyon, 9
35. Tucker Nathans (BAL), 9
The 2013 Crawdads are also famous for having an entire defensive alignment reach the Majors:
C Jorge Alfaro
1B Ronald Guzman
2B Ryan Rua
3B Joey Gallo
SS Luis Marte
LF Nick Williams
CF Lewis Brinson
RF Nomar Mazara
Here’s an example box score, plus Nick Vickerson as DH.
I know this team well, of course, as do you, I imagine. So how did it evade my original list of teams to cover? Nearly all of my team entries cover overall performance, not specific categories like homers, and the 2013 Crawdads had astonishing power but were honestly pretty bad in other respects. They scored at just a league-average rate. They had a 103 OPS+ but were 19 points below average in batting and 21 in OBP. In addition to the homers, they set an all-time Sally record with 1403 strikeouts (as noted in the preceding chart), more than ten per game, which at the time was scandalous. The rest of the league averaged 7.8 per game. That total has since been surpassed multiple times, but relative to the league, Hickory’s K rate remains the worst of any full-season team in a Texas-affiliated league during the past 18 seasons. Joey Gallo had 165 but was not the team leader. Lewis Brinson had 191. Four others exceeded 100, Luis Marte had 99, and Ryan Rua had 91.
Hickory actually had better pitching than hitting and finished 76-63 but failed to make the playoffs. Sadly, the team fell flat in a win-or-bust game to conclude the first half and was eliminated with several games to play in the second.