Category: News and Analysis

Texas and their affiliates announced initial minor league rosters yesterday. Here’s a quick rundown. If I don’t mention your guy, don’t worry. We’ve got a whole season in front of us, and I don’t want to use all my material in an intro.

I’ve listed top-30 prospect rankings for Baseball America (BA), MLB, and the most contrarian rankings for Baseball Prospectus (BP) and ESPN.

AAA ROUND ROCK EXPRESS

Round Rock, Texas
Pacific Coast League
Texas affiliate 2011-2018, 2021-present

Pitchers
Justin Anderson
Kohei Arihara
Jason Bahr
Hever Bueno
Jake Latz
Tyson Miller
Daniel Robert
Yerry Rodriguez (MLB 27)
Ryder Ryan
Jesus Tinoco
Nick Tropeano
Dan Winkler
Cole Winn (BA 3, MLB 3)

Cole Winn leads a group of eight faces familiar to Express fans. Winn isn’t first in line to replace a starter in Arlington if needed. He’s not any number on that depth chart. He’s just Cole Winn, prepping for an MLB debut to come when he’s ready, not when external circumstances dictate.

Rodriguez often dominated after switching to multi-inning relief late last season (perhaps not permanently, yet). A young 27, Robert doesn’t throw especially hard but spots impeccably and relies on a slider that has an invisibility cloak.

Tinoco (Rox), Tropeano (Dodgers most recently) and Winkler (Cubs) are offseason signings.

Catchers
Sam Huff (BA 11, MLB 11)
Jack Kruger
Yohel Pozo (BA 28)
Meibrys Viloria

The Rangers have seven catchers with MLB experience including these four. Keeping all probably isn’t possible, particularly assuming the parent club drops to two catchers. Catcher development requires inordinate patience, but even so, it’s a critical year for Huff, who after returning from injury didn’t catch at all and didn’t hit all that well (aside from power).

Infielders
Sherten Apostel
Ryan Dorow
Yonny Hernandez
Josh H. Smith (BA 9, MLB 7, ESPN 5)
Davis Wendzel (MLB 17)

Smith began 2021 in low-A (too low) and has only 127 plate appearances in AA. I thought he might spend a little more time in Frisco, but I wouldn’t call this assignment a surprise. Almost exclusively a shortstop professionally, Smith almost certainly won’t wear a uniform with “Rangers” on it without proficiency at other positions, so we’ll see how he’s used with the Express.

Everybody but Apostel can play second, third and short, and they probably will. Apostel dropped from the prospect rankings after an injury-plagued and so-so 2021, but he’s barely 23 and has a chance to regain ground.

Outfielders
Elier Hernandez
Zach Reks
Bubba Thompson (MLB 29)
Leody Taveras

Although omitted from the 40 last winter, Thompson had a strong 2021 that eased if not eliminated concerns about his bat. His power showed up in games, and his strikeout rate dropped from 32% to 26%.

I saw Taveras at length in 2021, and he genuine improved during his time in Round Rock, but it didn’t translate to a better showing in Arlington. He’s still just 23.

AA FRISCO ROUGHRIDERS
Frisco, Texas
Texas League
Texas affiliate since 2003

Pitchers
Grant Anderson
Cody Bradford (BA 23, MLB 20, ESPN 15)
Tim Brennan
Lucas Jacobsen
Zak Kent (BA 17, MLB 21)
Chase Lee
Jack Leiter (BA 1, MLB 1)
Seth Nordlin
Fernery Ozuna
Cole Ragans (BA 24)
Justin Slaten
Nick Starr
Tyler Thomas
Tai Tiedemann
Avery Weems (BA 18)
Grant Wolfram

Jack Leiter. Sorry, I don’t have anything to add to that. I just wanted to type his name again. He’s a Ranger.

Bradford, Kent, Ragans, Nordlin, Slaten, Weems and Wolfram combined for 95 of Hickory’s 114 starts last year. The first three finished 2021 in Frisco, and the rest are there now. Impressive to have an entire rotation graduate.

Catchers
David Garcia
Jordan Procyshen
Matt Whatley

Barely 22, Garcia earned a 40-man spot before reaching full-season ball, lost that spot last winter, immediately re-signed and now has earned a promotion to AA. His overall numbers call that into question (.261/.299/.349), but he had a better second half. Garcia has always needed time to acclimate offensively.

Whatley has the field presence and defensive chops to play in the Majors, but even catchers have to hit a little, and he hasn’t (.203/.316/.282 in AA as a 25-year-old last year).

Infielders
Diosbel Arias
Blaine Crim
Ezequiel Duran (BA 4, MLB 4)
Trey Hair
Nash Knight
Jonathan Ornelas
Nick Tanielu

Duran, the headliner of the Joey Gallo trade (although not by a large margin), has rarely played short

Crim isn’t a monster physically (no offense), is best-suited to first and doesn’t appear in anyone’s top 30 that I know of, but man, the guy can hit. Crim spent a portion of last year in Frisco and clubbed 29 homers between there and Hickory. He then lorded over Puerto Rico (.406/.452/.594) last winter.

Ornelas’s promotion is a mild surprise, as he batted .261/.310/.394 for high-A Hickory and is still just 21. He can play all over and spent nearly a third of his time in center.

Knight and Tanielu are 29 and vets of AAA. But they’re needed in AA for now.

Outfielders
Sandro Fabian
Dustin Harris (BA 5, MLB 6, ESPN 8)
Julio P. Martinez
Kellen Strahm
Josh Stowers

Harris is pointedly listed as an outfielder. In the middle of 2021 I began seeing him described as a four-corner guy, which sounded swell but didn’t jibe with his near-constant presence at first. Harris did start at third more often down the stretch and will make his debut in the grass next week. He added power (20 HR) to his already superior contact ability, vaulting him up the prospect rankings.

Strahm isn’t a kid (soon 25, a senior sign out of San Jose St.) and has played in only 101 games in three years because of injuries and covid, but he’s got a nice mix of OBP skills, speed and defense.

Stowers (part of the Odor traded) hit the 20/20 mark last year in Frisco. The 24-year-old Fabian is a minor league free agent with 15 homers at AA Richmond last year.

HIGH-A HICKORY CRAWDADS
Hickory, North Carolina
South Atlantic League
Texas affiliate since 2009

Pitchers
Ben Anderson
Marc Church
Joe Corbett
Mason Englert
Kevin Gowdy
Nick Krauth
Jesus Linarez
Eudrys Manon
John Matthews
Juan Mejia
Spencer Mraz
Triston Polley
Tekoah Roby (BA 14, MLB 15)
Josh D. Smith
Ricky Vanasco (BA 13, MLB 14)
Owen White (BA 7, MLB 8)

Based on everything I’ve heard about White lately, those rankings are going to appear conservative before long. Let’s hope so. Joining him is Englert, drafted two rounds after White in 2018 and with a similarly injury-delayed intro to pro ball. TK Roby, 2020’s 2^nd-round pick, won’t turn 21 until after the season, Vanasco, placed on the 40 with a stitched-up elbow and no full-season experience, finally gets a chance to build on his breakout 2019.  

Catchers
Randy Florentino
Cody Freeman
Scott Kapers

A converted infielder, Freeman didn’t catch after returning from an injury last year, but he’s once again behind the plate.

Infielders
Luisangel Acuna (BA 10, MLB 10)
Frainyer Chavez
Jake Guenther
Cristian Inoa
Keyber Rodriguez
Thomas Saggese (MLB 28)
Chris Seise

Picked 29^th overall in 2017, Chris Seise’s constant stream of injuries have limited him to 82 pro games. Given his luck, he was probably healthiest during 2020. Acuna stuck to second base after mid-July. He has the arm for the left side and was back at short during intersquads. The 19-year-old Saggese (2020, 5^th round) walked at will in low-A and split duties between second, third and short.

Outfielders
Angel Aponte
Evan Carter (BA 8, MLB 9)
Trevor Hauver (BA 22, MLB 19)
Aaron Zavala (BA 12, MLB 12)

The Rangers drafted the then-unheralded Carter in 2020 based on where they thought he’d rank had his senior high school season not been truncated by covid. A prescient move, given how quickly Carter established his prospect bona fides. They’ve treated him the same way now, promoting him to high-A despite a back injury that ended his 2021 after six weeks.

Hauver is 23 now and had a decent showing in Hickory (.246/.357/.426) but hasn’t staked out a position, so figuring out where he fits is probably easier with a return engagement.

LOW-A DOWN EAST WOOD DUCKS
Kinston, North Carolina
Carolina League
Texas affiliate since 2017

Pitchers
Michael Brewer
Gavin Collyer
Jose Corniell
Destin Dotson
Eris Filpo
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa
Larson Kindreich
Nick Lockhart
Dylan MacLean
Theo McDowell
Damian Mendoza
Teodoro Ortega
Winston Santos
Josh Stephan
Leury Tejada
Emiliano Teodo
Bradford Webb

Not a bad set of pitchers despite the absence of top-30 recognition. Teodo features a triple-digit fastball and high-spin curve. The 19-year-old Santos has good control and touched 97 in camp. Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa fanned 38 in 22.2 innings with the rookies last year. He’s nicknamed “Bubba,” and given the length of his birth name, I might just list him as simply Bubba in the game recaps. Kindreich (2021, 8^th round) struck out 18 against three walks in eight rookie innings.

Dotson and Tejeda were entrusted with critical relief innings during Down East’s playoff drive last September.

Catchers
Tucker Mitchell
Efrenyer Narvaez
Brady Smith

If all goes to plan, you’ll read the name Efrenyer Narvaez frequently. How many catchers, even in rookie ball, can post a .353/.428/.500 line?

Infielders
Jose Acosta
Maximo Acosta (BA 21, MLB 13)
Derwin Barreto
Abimelec Ortiz
Junior Paniagua
Yenci Pena

Thoracic outlet syndrome reduced Acosta’s pro debut to 17 lackluster games and dimmed his star a little. Still, he earned the promotion to full-season.

Outfielders
Yosy Galan
Daniel Mateo (BA 30)
Alejandro Osuna
Jose Rodriguez
Marcus Smith

Smith, more highly regarded than Dustin Harris when both were acquired for Mike Minor, has barely played because of hamstring problems. Like Seise, he could regain status quickly with good health.

Galan started the rookie season 0-for-13 with ten strikeouts, and proceeded to hit .274/.350/.573 and rank second with ten homers in 47 games.  

Unassigned Players Ranked By BA or MLB
3B Josh Jung (BA 2, MLB 2)
IF Justin Foscue (BA 6, MLB 5, BP 3)
Glenn Otto (BA 15, MLB 26, BP 8)
OF Yeison Morrobel (BA 16, MLB 18)
OF Bayron Lora (BA 19)
LHP Mitch Bratt (BA 20, MLB 23)
IF Cam Cauley (BA 25, MLB 22)
RHP Dane Acker (BA 26, MLB 24)
LHP AJ Alexy (BA 27, MLB 25, BP 10)
IF Danyer Cueva (BA 29, MLB 30)
OF Anthony Gutierrez (MLB 16)

Jung you know about. Foscue has back soreness. Acker is coming off elbow surgery. The rest are in limbo between MLB and AAA, with fates determined in the next few days, or are too green to earn their first full-season assignment.

Other Unassigned Players
LHP Brock Burke
RHP Matt Bush
RHP Demarcus Evans
RHP Greg Holland
LHP Matt Moore
RHP Brandon Workman
IF Charlie Culberson
OF Joe McCarthy
OF Steele Walker
OF Jake Marisnick
IF Matt Carpenter

Limbo is crowded.

Released / Retired

OF Carl Chester — The player to be named in last year’s trade for Nathaniel Lowe. Chester batted .1856/.235/.305 in AAA last year.

RHP Mason Cole – Sorry, Aggie fans. Texas 27th-round selection in 2019 had a walk-heavy 4.01 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 24.2 innings for Down East last year.

RHP Luke Schiltz – Picked three spots ahead of Cole, the 21-year-old fanned and walked 19 in 16.1 innings with a 7.71 ERA for the rookie squad last year.

RHP Adam McKillican and Connor Sechler – free agents who reached A levels in 2021.

RHP Josh Advocate – Texas’s 20th-rounder from 2017 has retired. He missed most of 2021. Advocate pitched well in long relief for high-A Down East in 2019.

RHP Nick Yoder – Also retired. Texas’s 34th-rounder for 2019.

Outbound

RHP Collin Wiles signed with the Athletics. Wiles spent nine years in the Texas system, most recently acquitting himself well during his first action in Triple A. RHP Joe Gatto signed with Philly. Texas signed Gatto to a Major League deal the previous winter, only to see him pitch so poorly in Surprise that he was designated for assignment and unclaimed. Gatto quickly improved enough to pitch well in AA and AAA, but not well enough for Texas to re-40 him.

Finally

1) Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid and I recorded a podcast Wednesday, focusing on Tepid’s visit to Arizona. Link in signature.
2) The Dodgers traded for Craig Kimbrel one day after the pen allowed a homer to Corey Seager.

Texas’s Top 100 Prospects
3B Josh Jung: 9th by FanGraphs, 19th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 26th by Baseball America, 31st by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Jack Leiter: 20th by Baseball Prospectus, 24th by FanGraphs, 25th by Baseball America, 36th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN)

IF Justin Foscue: 50th by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Cole Winn: 52nd by FanGraphs, 60th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 61st by Baseball America, 91st by Baseball Prospectus

IF Ezequiel Duran: 68th by FanGraphs, 99th by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Owen White: 84th by FanGraphs

IF Josh Smith: 89th by FanGraphs

I believe all the Jung placements pre-date his injury. On a subsequent podcast, FanGraphers Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein suggested he’d rank in the sixties as is.

Organization Farm Rankings
8th by Baseball Prospectus, (13th in 2021)
9th by Baseball America (24th last year)
10th by Kiley McDaniel / ESPN (20th last year)

Trade
Both Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim have strong defensive reps, especially in terms of pitch-calling, but Texas’s catchers combined to hit .223/.257/.367 in 2021. Texas’s offense hasn’t been better than its pitching since 2016, and even then, just barely. 2020 was the franchise’s worst offensive season, and 2021 was no better than third-worst. This team desperately needs hitting. Mitch Garver will hit. (Also, the free agent market for catchers was exceptionally bleak.)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa admitted some grumpiness upon Texas’s acquisition of Seagar and Semien, and I can’t blame him. IKF’s bat has been worth about 1.5 wins below average (average, not replacement) per 600 plate appearances, but he’s compensated by fielding well at a premium position. Defense saved last year’s squad from a win total in the 50s. But again, the Rangers are focused on upgrading an atrocious offense. That’s not to pin it on IKF, who has an acceptable lifetime .316 OBP, but he’s the biggest trade chip if the strategy is to sacrifice some defense in exchange for hitting.

Kiner-Falefa received scant attention nationally while climbing the system, but those of us who focus mostly on the Rangers were on to him despite his lack of even doubles power at the time. IKF squeezes more out of his ability than just about any Ranger I’ve seen. He will not be denied. Best wishes to him.

I enjoy watching RHP Ronny Henriquez, but he’s the type you readily relinquish to push a deal for a starting position player over the line. His fastball is lively and angry, backed up by a capable if inconsistent slider and change. I saw him and Yerry Rodriguez back-to-back last July. Rodriguez’s fastball impressed the most, but Henriquez looked more likely to remain a starter. Henriquez induced nine swinging strikes with his slider. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henriquez slide into a reliever role.
Here
I hadn’t thought of Brad Miller as an option. He’s 32. He’s wandered through six clubhouses during the past four years. He’s made only 57 of his 700 career starts at positions needing the most help in Texas (3B, LF). But even with all the address changes, Miller has batted .250/.344/.487 against righties since 2018. Miller used to man short regularly, so I’d venture he could form the strong side of a platoon at 3B or LF despite the relative lack of experience. Against lefties, Miller actually homers at a similar rate, about one per 21 PA, but otherwise is of no help.   

Martin Perez! Perez has averaged roughly one WAR per 100-150 innings in his career, and if he can give Texas 150 slightly-above-replacement innings in 2021, he’s a fine addition. Prior to his signing, Texas was in the position of asking some combination of Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, AJ Alexy, Glenn Otto, Kolby Allard, and perhaps a few others to fill three rotation spots behind John Gray and Dane Dunning. That’s a big ask. Perez will alleviate that pressure.

Free Agents back with Texas: LHP Sal Mendez, RHP Jesus Linarez, C Jordan Procyshen, IF Trey Hair, and as of yesterday, IF Charlie Culberson.

Among the recent signings to minor deals is OF Jake Marisnick, who’s totaled 11 wins above replacement in 800 games despite a .228/.282/.384 line, courtesy of superior defense. A nice depth signing and possibly more, depending on what Texas can do to fortify a still-thin outfield. Arlington native and Texas-Ex Brandon Workman is a Ranger following a second stint with the Red Sox. Workman has been off his game the past two years, posting a .5.66 ERA with 34 walks in 47.2 relief innings. Matt Moore, who threw 102 unmemorable innings for the unmemorable 2018 Rangers, is back. And, Texas just signed righty reliever Greg Holland, who’s been all over the map in terms of quality the past four years. The Rangers have some recent success snaring veteran arms, so perhaps Holland could be another.

IFs Nick Tanielu and Nash Knight are Rangers on minor deals. Neither appeared on any transaction list I’ve seen, but they’re on the Spring Training roster. Tanielu will be familiar to Express fans, having played for Round Rock as an Astro in 2019 and visiting last year as a member of the Padres’ El Paso affiliate. Tanileu excelled with the Express (.295/.360/.520) but was oddly ineffective at hitter-friendly El Paso (.233/.299/.415). The 29-year-old Knight — born in Denton, schooled at Dallas Baptist, professionally a Blue Jay until now — has played every position at some but it best regarded as a corner infielder with some moonlighting at second and in left. Both are seeking their MLB debuts.

There
1B Ronald Guzman signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.

San Francisco signed lefty Joe Palumbo to a minor deal. The Giants had declined to offer him a Major League contract after claiming him off waivers from Texas last fall, making him a free agent for a while. He’s a teammate of Luis Ortiz, who also signed with the Giants after spending 2021 in Round Rock.

Lefty Wes Benjamin, who became a free agent after being outrighted last fall, signed a minor deal with the White Sox.

Catcher Melvin Novoa and OF Pedro Gonzales signed with indy teams.

OF Lewis Brinson inked a minor deal with the Astros.

The Cubs signed OF Seiya Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract. Suzuki was the last available player in the “Other People’s Money” portion of my Nov. 16 report wherein I estimated value of lavishing $100 million annually (actually $108) on free agents. I had four and $44 in mind for Suzuki, so good for him on blowing by that.

Name Game
Our long national nightmare is over. MLB is reinstating the traditional monikers for the minor leagues. MLB was able to recast the minors more to its liking after 2020, but it lacked the naming rights. Thus, the stilted Triple A West, Double A South, High A East, and Low A East. They’re gone, never to be uttered again in polite company, replaced by the Pacific Coast League, Texas League, South Atlantic (Sally) League, and Carolina League.

New Rules
All full-season levels will institute a pitch clock of 14 seconds with bases empty and 19 (AAA) or 18 (elsewhere) with runners on. A 20-second pitch clock dates back to 2015 in AAA. I don’t know if the number of clock-enforced balls and strikes has declined, but my feeling is enforcement has become more lax over the years.

All full-season levels will play with the larger bases used in AAA last year. Also, the limit of two pickoffs or step-offs per plate appearance expands from low-A to all full-season leagues. A third pickoff that doesn’t result in an out is deemed a balk. Last year, Texas’s Down East squad set a low-A record with 2.42 steals per game. League-wide stolen base attempts increased 30% vs. 2019, and successful attempts jumped 47%.

The Pacific Coast League and Charlotte in the International League will employ the automated ball/strike system used last year in the Low-A Southeast and Arizona Fall League last year. I have a pet theory that players with superior batting eyes can walk at an outsized rate because they needn’t worry about varying strikes zones among umps or expansion of the zone in three-ball counts. Let’s check the stats:

Number of players drawing at least 1 walk per 6 plate appearances:
All Low-A in 2019 (no robo-ump): 6 players, 0.20 per team
2021 Low-A West and East (no robo-ump): 5 players, 0.28 per team
2021 Low-A Southeast (robo-ump): 18 players, 1.50 per team

Ranger Trevor Hauver is among them; he drew 64 walks in 66 games in Tampa prior to his trade to Texas. I don’t expect an explosion in the AAA walk rate like what occurred in the Low-A Southeast last year. AAA pitchers have better control and are another year removed from the lost 2020. But we might see some hitters really take advantage of a “perfect” strike zone.

Levels below AAA will ban the shift; the four infielders must divide equally on either side of second and plant their spikes in the dirt.

Legal News
Back in 2014, some minor leaguers sued selected MLB clubs and MLB itself over alleged illegal wage and labor practices. The players eventually formed a class that withstood a certification challenge reaching the US Supreme Court. Last week, a federal judge ruled on a host of pre-trial motions, most notably granting the plaintiffs’ summary judgment motion and ruling that the players are indeed “employees” under federal and state law, that players’ currently unpaid activities in spring training complexes are indeed “work,” and that travel time to and from Cal League games is compensable. The judge ordered $1,882,650 in penalties on the Cal League claim, with penalties in other states to be determined at trial if the case proceeds that far. Prior to this ruling, you might recall that MLB’s counsel recently had to defend the notion that minor leaguers not only should not be paid during spring training, but that the instruction and “life skills” received are things the players would pay thousands for at private camps. The judge was not persuaded, stating “defendants’ creative professional exemption defense fails as to all of Plaintiffs’ claims” and “defendants’ method of allocating signing bonuses and tuition payments to offset minimum wage liability is incorrect as a matter of law.”

The amount of money isn’t huge, relatively speaking, but it’s not nothing, and paying players during Spring Training would certainly represent a drastic change in business practices. If a court tells clubs owners they have to pay minor leaguers more money, owners might respond by employing fewer minor leaguers. 40 minor league teams already lost their affiliations after 2020. Under the new agreement, clubs are committed to fielding four full-season minor teams through 2030.

Rule 5 Draft
Cancelled. Unfortunately, also cancelled is my annual trip to Arizona for the third straight year. Pre-CBA uncertainty about whether folks like me would be allowed in Surprise plus grim certainty about my current work schedule forced me to make an unappealing decision. Instead, later on this year I hope to visit Texas’s A-level clubs for the first time since 2011.

Jung
Per local reports, 3B Josh Jung has a left (non-throwing) labral strain that will sideline him for an indefinite period and possibly require surgery. Terrible news for someone who might have won the starting 3B job out of Spring Training. I saw plenty of him last August and September and thought he was ready. At the very least, he was to be among Texas’s most prominent prospects when the minors resume.

FanGraphs.com’s just-revealed top-100 prospect list places Jung 9th, the highest I’ve seen him. I’ll have more on prospect rankings down the road. 

Stock Photo Of Chain And Padlock Draped Over A Baseball

This week’s lengthier MLB-MLBPA discussions are encouraging, but on the whole, the lockout and tenor of ongoing negotiations reminds me of 2020’s reorganization of the minors. In that case, MLB patiently let the agreement with MiLB expire and largely dictated new terms to a collection of teams decimated by the pandemic. (Some have sued, but I don’t think they have much of a case.) In the current situation, MLB owners and management can’t domineer the Players Association as it did MiLB, but they seem willing to accept the loss of games and negative press in order to achieve the same resounding victory.

Fans have the right to be weary and disgusted, especially after two Spring Trainings impacted by the pandemic. I certainly am. However, I absolutely do not buy the “billionaires vs. millionaires” dismissal or the idea of locking them in a room until they work it out. The stakes are too high. For most players, this next CBA will govern what remains of their careers. The draft and reserve clause prevent anything approaching genuine competition for the services of most players. Salaries are essentially fixed. Any improvements in their compensation and working conditions must be obtained now. Likewise, for owners, terms that make the final version of a CBA tend to stick, so anything conceded now could impact profits and asset values well beyond the terms of this agreement.

Per Travis Sawchik of The Score, 63% of MLB players in 2019 had under three years of service time. From 2011 to 2019, the average debut age increased from 24.6 to 25.6, but the percentage of players over 30 has decreased from 40% in 2004 to 30% now.

Entering 2021, the average MLB salary was over $4 million, but that figure is badly skewed by top-tier free agents and has no relevance for the vast majority of players. Roughly 45% of MLB’s active roster have salaries under $1 million. By my count, 30 of Texas’s 40-man roster members have yet to reach arbitration. Of those, I count 17 yet to reach $1 million in cumulative earnings, including signing bonuses. A decent number of them will eventually, of course, and I’m not trying to pass them all off as destitute. But for many of these players, minimum salaries are all they’ll ever see, so I think the union is right to weigh them heavily in the negotiations.

One Hundred Fifty

Connected to the critical monetary issues is MLB’s request (withdrawn as of Monday) for the power to lower the number of US-based minor leaguers per club from 180 to as few as 150. In the past, individual minor league teams had roster limits that generally guided the total number of players a club would employ, but clubs didn’t have an organization-wide roster limit to my knowledge. That has changed, and MLB may want the right to change it again for what seems a modest monetary benefit.

Reviewing Texas’s 2021 reveals what a lower limit would entail. 221 players took the field for the club’s minor league teams last year. Nine were rehabbing MLB players, another 17 were optioned 40-man members. That leaves 195 players on minor league contracts, to which must be added four absent from injury and seven draft picks who didn’t take the field. So, by my count, the Rangers had 206 players signed to minor league contracts over the course of the 2021 season. The total at any given moment was lower, but I don’t think the Rangers ever had as few as 150. Texas has at least 170 players signed to minor league deals right now. (Odds are my figures aren’t exact, but they should be close enough for discussion.)

The late-2020 overhaul of the minor league system eliminated 40 teams but guaranteed four full-season minor league teams per club through 2030. These four teams have a cumulative roster limit of 116. Rookie-level teams were and are at the discretion of individual clubs. Every club has at least one, some have two (not Texas). They have no roster limit and can stretch into the thirties and beyond. Staffing five teams with a maximum of 150 minor leaguers plus optioned 40-man members isn’t impossible but stretches resources awfully thin. A 150 limit would effectively prohibit multiple rookie-level teams within an organization.

Cutting aggregate roster sizes isn’t going to eliminate the AAA vets needed as MLB reinforcements, some of whom receive low six-figure deals. The eliminated salaries would be at the bottom, those making a few hundred per week.

Also, maintaining minor league rosters is difficult enough as is. Players get hurt and need replacements. Any promotion or demotion can set off a chain of transactions affecting the positions and plate appearances of multiple players. Now add to that the possibility of having to release a capable player in order to sign a draft pick, or putting forth a short-handed team, in service of some weirdly arbitrary roster limit.

Concurrent with this is the ongoing class action lawsuit by a group of minor league players against MLB. MLB’s argument ($ link) is that players are not employees during Spring Training, therefore they should not be paid. MLB’s counsel has reinforced this argument with a consulting study estimating that players receive training and benefits that would cost over $2,000 per week if obtained elsewhere, and that players gain “generally beneficial life skills” while in the minors.
Silver Cloud, Gray Lining

Good news: The lockout does not affect the minor leagues. Games will continue as scheduled, beginning Tuesday April 5 in AAA and Thursday elsewhere. Bad: Texas will still have plenty of players worth seeing, but the lockout and absence of MLB action is not to MiLB’s benefit.

First: Everybody on the 40-man roster is exiled. If you visit a minor league park this season (and you should!), you won’t see Sam Huff, or Sherten Apostel, or Yerry Rodriguez, or Ricky Vanasco, or Ezequiel Duran while the lockout persists. These players already missed 2020, and some were shelved for all or part of 2021 due to injury. They desperately need the opportunity to perform, but they’re banished from MLB facilities just like Max Scherzer, Corey Seager and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Second: Think about Drew Anderson, Jharel Cotton and Spencer Patton. All signed minor league deals with the Rangers before 2021, pitched well in AAA, and finished the season in MLB with 95 respectable innings between them. Patton and Cotton enter 2022 with MLB contracts, while Anderson parlayed his success into a gig in Japan. For their 2022 equivalents, the goal of returning to the Majors may not exist in April. Sometimes, opportunities are created by a combination of two or three superior weeks in the minors and an injury or bad performance at the MLB level. Some of these players could play well enough to warrant a call-up, only to have nowhere to go. That’s depressing.

Minor League Rule 5 Results

The Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft has been, at best, delayed by the lockout, but the minor league portion proceeded as planned in December. Players already on the 40-man roster were off-limits along with up to 38 players in the AAA reserve roster. The Rangers fully stocked the latter roster preceding the draft, leaving them unable to select anyone. They lost four players. Say farewell to:

IF Charles Leblanc (4th overall to Miami) – With a revamped approach, Leblanc more than tripled his home run rate in 2021 despite playing in AAA for the first time. Leblanc also struck out more than ever and posted a career-low .313 OBP and .229 average. He’s best suited to the corners (including LF) but can handle second and spot at short in a pinch. Leblanc is more of a prospect now than two years ago, when he struggled in AA, but even with the improved power I wasn’t shocked that he was exposed to this portion of the draft. Conversely, Baseball America described him as having the “greatest offensive upside” of any hitter in the draft lacking MLB experience.

RHP Abdiel Mendoza (18th overall to Toronto) —  Texas acquired Mendoza and RHP Teodoro Ortega in 2018 for reliever Cory Gearrin. Mendoza spent his Year 23 season in low-A, where he had his moments but struggled against lefties in general and everyone the second time through the order.

RHP Cole Uvila (26th overall to Baltimore) – Early in 2021, I thought Uvila had a shot to make his MLB debut. Like Joe Barlow, Uvila’s control ranges from so-so to frightening, but he strikes out plenty of hitters and manages to avoid too much solid contact the rest of the time. Or at least he did, until promotion to Round Rock, where in his first six outings he allowed 16 hits and walked 11 versus just three strikeouts. Still, writing off Uvila is premature. Recall that Barlow struggled badly in AAA and in successive spring tryouts before reaching the Majors.

RHP Nic Laio (27th overall to Pittsburgh) – His season mimicked Uvila. For a month, he was the system’s strongest reliever, fanning 31 in 18 innings with a 1.47 ERA for low-A Down East. Thereafter, mostly while in high-A, Laio continued to miss bats but was clobbered when he didn’t, permitting 11 homers and a .605 opposing slugging percentage in 38 innings.

Unlike some years, I didn’t have the reserve list before the draft. I did not expect Uvila or Laio to be exposed. That said, they were selected after two Rangers whose exposure didn’t surprise me.   

The Draft, Or What’s Left Of It
Here’s everyone the Rangers signed in 2019 after the fifth round for more than $20,000:

6. SS Cody Bradford, $700,000
8. RHP John Matthews, $177,400
9. RHP Zak Kent, $155,800
11. RHP Gavin Collyer, $585,000
13. RHP Ben Anderson, $125,000
18. RHP Marc Church, $300,000
24. RHP Luke Schlitz, $125,000
27. RHP Mason Cole, $85,000
28. SS Jake Hoover, $50,000
30. RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa, $125,000
32. RHP Michael Brewer, $375,000
33. RHP Spencer Mraz, $70,000
38. RHP Jamarcus Lang, $30,000

Okay, maybe these names don’t exactly get the blood pumping right now. Hopefully, some will in 2021. Let’s try some others:

RHP Ricky Vanasco, 2017, 15th round, $200,000
RHP Joe Barlow, 2016, 11th round, $85,000
RHP Kyle Cody, 2016, 6th round, $150,000 
C Sam Huff, 2016, 7th round, $225,000
RHP Demarcus Evans, 2015, 25th round, $100,000
RHP Tyler Phillips, 2015, 16th round, $160,000
OF Scott Heineman, 2015, 11th round, $100,000
RHP Peter Fairbanks, 2015, 9th round, $100,000
C Jose Trevino, 2014, 6th round, $200,000
RHP Keone Kela, 2012, 12th round, $100,000
RHP Jerad Eickhoff, 2011, 11th round, $150,000
RHP Kyle Hendricks, 2011, 8th round, $125,000

Next month, none of the 2020 equivalents of Sam Huff, Demarcus Evans and Kyle Hendricks will be drafted. The good news is they become free agents. The bad is that they’re subject to a maximum bonus of $20,000. Again, that group of 2019 picks probably doesn’t mean much to you, but I listed them to emphasize just how drastically this year’s format will affect the Rangers and the lives of prospective draftees.

In late March, the MLB Players Association granted owners the right to reduce the draft to either five or ten rounds and defer 90% of signing bonuses in exchange for full service time and guarantee of partial salaries should the season be cancelled. Unsurprisingly, MLB chose the less expensive option, and this week it is seeking salary discounts beyond straight pro-rations for games played. These are terrible times, and most clubs, to their credit, are trying to cut costs without cutting personnel. On the other hand, MLB does not offer windfall bonuses to players when league revenues exceed expectations, and players didn’t see a dime of the $2.58 billion MLB received for stakes in its Advanced Media unit. Gross player wages actually fell in 2018 and again in 2019. The reduction in the draft, although borne of catastrophic circumstances, dovetails nicely with MLB’s pre-COVID plan to eliminate affiliations with 40 to 42 of the 160 minor league teams outside of spring training complexes.

If you’re of the mind that more baseball is better than less, and that young athletes should be encouraged to choose baseball over other sports, this is a terrible development. In essence, MLB is outsourcing player development for all but the top tier of talent onto colleges and junior colleges. (This is great news for college baseball programs, at least the ones that survive the upcoming decimation of athletic department budgets.) MLB is also telling a number of amateurs, some of whom may be late bloomers that develop into MLB-worthy players, that they should seek employment outside of baseball.

How much do clubs save under a five-round draft? In terms of reduced draft pools, roughly $1,000,000 per team. The actual amount saved might be double that, since teams could sign late-round picks for up to $125,000 without counting against the pool. So, less than the salary of Jeff Mathis or Joely Rodriguez, although any savings are magnified under the present circumstances and could directly impact existing employment within some clubs.

In the long run, I actually like the idea of a shorter draft, say 20 rounds or even ten, if teams have a reasonable budget for signing undrafted players.

The Draft, Mock Version
(Note: all the links in this section are subscription-only.)

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel published his first mock draft, sending Tennessee lefty Garrett Crochet to the Rangers with the 14th pick. Coincidentally, when I pretended to be the Texas GM in the ProspectsLive.com draft, I intended to pick Crochet if the far more polished lefty Reid Detmers hadn’t fallen into my lap. (McDaniels has Detmers 11th, and I’ve not seen a mock with him dropping any lower.) Even more coincidentally, McDaniels mentioned Texas as the earliest possible destination for Ohio State catcher Dillon Dingler, who I happily nabbed in the second round, 50th overall. 

In Keith Law’s new mock for The Athletic, the Rangers picked high school OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, who greatly intrigued me but would have been my selection only if Crochet, catcher Patrick Bailey and 1-2 others had already been picked. Law has Oakland selecting Dingler 26th overall.

The latest Baseball America mock also has the Rangers picking Crochet. I think BA had college catcher Patrick Bailey to Texas in its previous mock.

This year, compensation for unsigned picks extends to the third round. In a separate article, McDaniels suggests that some cash-strapped teams may aim for cost savings even beyond those already locked in by offering cut-rate bonuses to their picks. If the players sign, the teams save some money. If they don’t, the teams don’t spend a dime and book compensation picks for 2021. 

2020
The Texas League canceled its All-Star game, as have the AA Eastern League and low-A Midwest League.

As for the regular minor league season, we’re one-fifth through the schedule but no closer to actual games. I’d written a paragraph about the how, unlike MLB, the minors couldn’t subsist on fan-free games, but then I found a quote from MiLB Senior Director of Communications Jeff Lantz that sums the situation better: “We will not play in front of no fans. It’s a business-model issue, really. If they send the players to us, we have to have fans. Otherwise, everything is in the red. If we turn on the stadium lights for a game, it’s $5,000. If we don’t have any fans buying tickets and buying concessions, we don’t have a way to pay for those lights.”

Per Baseball America, seven of 33 summer amateur circuits they track have already called off 2020, including the Cape Cod League. Numerous others have announced delays. The independent professional American Association postponed its season until July. Winnipeg owner Sam Katz is more blunt: “The bottom line is there’s a strong possibility that there will not be a season.”

In the last week, the owner of the short-season Hudson Valley Renegades and the bus driver for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans have died from COVID-19.

Korea
ESPN acquired rights to the Korea Baseball Organization, which began on Tuesday. Live games begin between midnight and 4:30 AM CDT, and the network will rebroadcast them at more palatable hours. Mykbostats.com is an invaluable resource for following the league and foreign-born players. Korea’s ten teams include several ex-Rangers:

LHP Chad Bell (Hanwha) – Hanwha was 58-86 last year but don’t blame Bell, who posted a 3.50 ERA in 177 innings and didn’t allow a run in five of his final eight starts. Texas drafted Bell in 2009’s 14th round. After eight years in the organization, he became a Tiger in exchange for catcher Bobby Wilson and pitched 69 innings for Detroit across the next two seasons.

RHP Jake Brigham (Kiwoom) – Like Bell, Brigham was traded for a catcher after many years in Texas’s minors and reached MLB with a different club. Drafted in 2006’s 6th round, Brigham departed in exchange for Giovanny Soto and threw 16 innings for Atlanta in 2015. He’s beginning his fourth season in a Korean rotation after one in Japan. Brigham opened his season with 3.1 scoreless innings.

OF Jared Hoying (Hanwha) – Hoying played 512 games for AAA Round Rock and 75 for the Rangers during 2013-2017. He’s clubbed 48 homers and reached at a nifty .355 clip the past two seasons in Korea.

LHP Eric Jokisch (Kiwoom) – As you undoubtedly recall, Jokisch spent the last two months of the 2016 minor league season with Round Rock.

RHP Adrian Sampson (Lotte) – Sampson pitched the third-most innings for the Rangers last year. Texas granted his release last November to head overseas.

Since the postponed Opening Day of the MLB season, the per-capita rate of infection in the US is 110 times higher than South Korea. Lately, Texas alone is averaging more new cases per day than South Korea’s total for the last five weeks. So in that respect, I don’t see the KBO as a harbinger of baseball in the US. The countries are on very different paths.

Patterson
Texas Rangers minor league 3B Shea Patterson is also a Kansas City Chief. Once an elite recruit, the U of Michigan quarterback became the last of 337 players at this year’s NFL combine to ink a deal.

The Rangers signed Patterson after drafting him in 2018’s 39th round. Patterson has appeared briefly at spring training and with the Round Rock Express but has yet to play in any official games, nor did he play in college. Texas retains his rights.

Clase
Former Rangers reliever Emmanuel Clase was suspended 80 games for a positive test for the performance-enhancing substance Boldenone. As I understand it, 80 games means 80 honest-to-goodness games, so Clase’s suspension could stretch well into 2021.

Draft
Last week, I participated in a mock draft staged by ProspectsLive.com. I was the Texas GM, picking for the Rangers in the first three rounds. To be honest, compared to most of the other faux GMs, I was ill-suited to the task. Historically, because of time constraints, I don’t usually gear up for the draft until two weeks before, at best. I tend to internet-scout the potential first-round picks for Texas, but beyond that, I’m just reading scouting reports from Baseball America so the early-round names ring a bell when they’re announced. In 2020, recent information does not exist. Most amateurs played only a handful of games, some none at all.

All that said, here’s your new virtual Rangers:

1st round 14th overall – LHP Reid Detmers, Louisville (6.2”, 210, Age 20.9)

I didn’t even rank Detmers because I had no expectation of him being available at my spot. I don’t recall a mock draft listing him lower than 10th. Detmers isn’t the sexiest choice and will never lead a rotation, but perhaps nobody outside the absolute top tier offers a higher floor. Detmers’ fastball usually runs only in the low 90s but has good movement, and he can place it wherever he likes. He also delivers a monster curve and genuine change. He’s as polished as anyone on the board. He’ll pitch in the Majors, probably pretty well.

Others I considered: Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad, Tennessee LHP Garrett Crochet, and NC State catcher Patrick Bailey. Kjerstad vanished two picks before mine, and I would have taken Crochet if not for Detmers. Compared to Detmers, Crochet is a taller, missile-throwing lefty with more upside and but far more reliever risk, and a shoulder malady limited him to just one appearance and three innings.

2nd round, 50th overall – C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (6’3”, 210, Age 21.7)

I wasn’t necessarily committed to taking a catcher, but several strong candidates were available as my second pick approach. After spurning Bailey in the first, I was more inclined to take one. Catcher Austin Wells was picked before my slot, but given a choice I would have still would have selected Dingler. Wells has the better bat but isn’t assured of sticking behind the plate. He might become an effective corner outfielder. For my part, if I’m picking a catcher, I want a catcher. Dingler isn’t an elite defender but won’t fall down the defensive scale, and his aptitude with the bat is rising.

“But the Rangers already have Sam Huff!” Indeed they do. David Garcia, too. Huff is a highly regarded prospect who has yet to see his first action in AA. Nothing is assured. In a perfect world, both Huff and Dingler develop into frontline catchers. If so, I will take full responsibility as GM for having too many good catchers in the organization.

3rd round, 85th overall – RHP Markevian Hence, Pine Bluff, AR (6”1, 175, Age 17.9)

To my eye, Hence looks closer to 165. While he lacks a stout build and probably always will, he’s athletic with a clean, breezy delivery. Hence’s fastball reaches 96 and sits two ticks below. He throws a four-seamer, two-seamer, curve, slider and change. Nickname: Tink.

The real draft is still scheduled for early next month. Still to be determined are the number of rounds.

Dreams Deferred
Back in February, I’d already booked my first mid-week in May:

Wednesday 7:30 AM: Head to Frisco after dropping off daughter at school
Wednesday 11:05 AM: Watch Frisco play Midland
Wednesday evening: Attend work seminar
Thursday 11:00 AM: Join my Rangers On Deck podcast partners in the VOKAL studio
Thursday 7:05 PM: Watch Frisco play Midland

Opening Day for the minor leaguers on Earth 2. A.J. Alexy, coming off last year’s lat injury, delivers the season’s first pitch at 7pm EDT for high-A Down East against visiting Fredericksburg. Five minutes later, Hickory CF Kellen Strahm will tee off against a Seattle prospect at West Virginia. In another thirty minutes, Nashville’s Kolby Allard will fool an I-Cub with an offspeed first pitch, and at 7pm CDT, Frisco CF Leody Taveras will take a hack off a Tulsa hurler.

Here on Earth 1, we have the first four of many, many canceled games.

You’ve probably read about discussion between MLB and the Players Association to open the season as soon as May. All thirty teams would play in one location, likely Arizona.

I don’t consider myself an optimist or pessimist. In any situation, I try to estimate the odds. In this situation, I don’t like the odds. Plenty of people exercising reasonable caution have found themselves sick, or worse. Reactivating open society will be just as much of a challenge as shutting it down. We’re probably going to endure intermittent periods of semi-openness and closure until a vaccine is widely disseminated.

This plan would seem to require players, a taxi squad of replacement players for the injured, coaches, umpires, grounds crew, other stadium personnel, broadcast media and crew, security, hotel/housing staff, and a slew of others living in isolation early on and then (if fortunate) living under “ordinary” social-distancing conditions thereafter. That’s a lot of people, an awful lot of opportunities for failure. Are players forbidden from face-to-face contact with their partners and children during this time? Does a positive test force another shut down? If not one test, what about half a dozen?

Arizona’s Chase Field can handle two or three games a day. The Phoenix area hosts 15 teams in the spring but has only ten primary stadiums, since several facilities are shared. So, a few more would be needed, or some games would have to be played on the back fields. That would be something. The playing surfaces are superbly maintained, but the rest is spartan. Chain-link fencing, no bullpens, rudimentary dugouts, adequate lighting at best. Outside of the enclosed Chase, games couldn’t begin before 7pm, and even then, early inning temperatures will occasionally exceed 110 degrees. Arizona’s lack of Daylight Savings Time means every game would be a late-night affair for viewers in the Central and Eastern zones.

As for the minors, I can’t justify playing games at stadiums across the country until fans are permitted. Without paying customers, the games would just create additional operating expenses for minor league teams already struggling with negligible revenue. Maybe a solution exists that entails limited numbers of fans sitting distant from one another. It could be a welcome respite for the lucky few. It could also be eerie and disheartening. I’m not sure.

Sorry to be so glum. I am working on a feature that doesn’t involve the year 2020 at all, and I hope you’ll enjoy it. I’m also recording another podcast shortly with pals Ted Price, Sean Bass and Michael Tepid that should be available later today.

Per Baseball America, the powers that be have not reached a decision on service time and Rule 5 status should the minor league season be canceled. Prospects eligible for the R5 draft this December under ordinary conditions unless protected include pitchers A.J. Alexy, John King, Cole Ragans, Yerry Rodriguez, and Alex Speas, and catchers Sam Huff and David Garcia.

For the time being, teams can’t reassign players to different levels, only release them. Several teams including the Rangers have retained nearly all of their minor leaguers since spring training was halted, while others, most notably the Cubs and Athletics, have released upwards of twenty players.

Per local reports, three Rangers minor leaguers have shown symptoms of COVID-19, although none has been tested. All are feeling better.

Texas released 22-year-old pitcher Edgar Arrendondo, originally signed out of Mexico in 2013. Arredondo reached AA in 2018 and spent all of last year in Frisco’s rotation, posting a 4.17 ERA with good control and a 17% strikeout rate.

Greetings from Surprise Austin.

Under ordinary circumstances, Monday would be my first of several days in Arizona. In a few hours, I’d be pulling into Glendale’s Camelback Ranch to watch Texas’s youngest minor leaguers take on the White Sox. Instead, I’m home, under circumstances that won’t be ordinary for a long time.

Barely over a week ago, I wasn’t especially worried about my own health or being a vector that could harm others. I travel to Arizona alone by car, usually off the beaten path, and I keep a relatively low profile on the back fields. But as last week transpired, I found myself prepared physically but not mentally, increasingly ill at ease. Time set aside for studying players was instead spent studying a virus and contemplating life-altering events. By Tuesday, I was drawing to the disappointing conclusion that for the first time since 2006, I wouldn’t be visiting Arizona. By Thursday, when MLB suspended spring training, I’d already overcome my disappointment. The announcement was a relief.

I already work from home, and my wife will be as of later today, but now we also have a homebound daughter for who knows how long, so our schedule will be… I don’t know. Complicated, I guess. Goodness knows I’m not complaining. So many people (and perhaps some of y’all) have it much worse. On the whole, minor league ballplayers are in that group. They haven’t received a paycheck in months and don’t know when the next will come. The situation is already terrible, and we’re nowhere near the bottom.

Hopefully, we’ll have some baseball later this year. If you’re old enough, you remember the emotional impact of baseball resuming after the September 11 attacks. Opening Day 2020 will be even more momentous, I’d wager.

As for the Newberg Report, I’ve got some ideas on how to fill the time between now and then, but I don’t want to promise anything specific yet.

I hope you’re getting by and able to care for those you love, even though “care for” might mean “avoid” for the time being.