Rangers Prospect Review

I actually began a prospect review in late May but was tempering so many observations with ā€œitā€™s only been two monthsā€ that I decided to wait until the All-Star break. Then, I discovered covering 20 draft picks and 30 prospects at the same time was a bad idea, and then I simply fell behind. So, at long last, hereā€™s my review of the preseason top 30 prospects as selected by MLB Pipeline. I chose Pipeline not necessarily because theyā€™re the market standard but because theyā€™re free, and I can republish the list without undercutting someoneā€™s subscription model.

1. Evan Carter (MLB No. 5), OF
Grade: Down Slightly

I hope I roll my eyes at this grade in a year. I canā€™t help some concern about his back, both in terms of keeping him out of the lineup and limiting his upside when available.

2. Wyatt Langford (MLB No. 6), OF
Even

Iā€™m sticking to my draft form two months ago, when Langford was batting .222/.288/.286: ā€œEh, Iā€™m not worried. As an aside, Langfordā€™s early struggles oddly confirm my love of baseball. A top draft pick can storm through the minors, reach the Majors at nearly unprecedented speed, andā€¦ not be all that good. Back-end starters and up-and-down relievers are like ā€˜congrats on the signing bonus but this ainā€™t the SEC.ā€™ ā€œ

3. Sebastian Walcott (MLB No. 68), SS
Up Slightly

Up slightly, not simply ā€œup,ā€ because he was already regarded so highly. Heā€™s striking out more than league average, but as Iā€™ve mentioned recently, heā€™s also occasionally shown some impressive coverage against breaking pitches. All of his slash stats are above the league rates, and we occasionally receive reports of electric exit velocities. Defense is a work in progress, and perhaps shortstop isnā€™t his future, but given the hyper-aggressive assignment, heā€™s truly impressed.

4. Brock Porter (MLB No. 85), RHP
Down

Neither of Porterā€™s two spring trainings were encouraging, but in 2023 he quickly rounded into form and entered this seasonā€™s camp as arguably Texasā€™s best pitching prospect. This time, the early woes persisted into the regular season, and after a lengthy layoff, Porter returned to action in the complex league but walked or hit nearly 30% of his opponents. Some have asked me about a comparison to Cody Buckel, a once-solid prospect who essentially awakened one day unable to throw strikes and never fully recovered. I wouldnā€™t go that far, not yet. First, Porterā€™s control has always lagged, whereas Buckel reached his peak as a control/command type. Second, I personally havenā€™t seen Porter miss as frequently and as far off-target as Buckel at his nadir. Regardless, the situation is deeply concerning.

5. Justin Foscue, 2B/3B
Even or Down Slightly, you decide

The problem isnā€™t anything heā€™s done but what and how heā€™s missed. Across four seasons, heā€™s landed on the IL five times as a professional, thrice for an oblique injury. One was so minor as to barely register, but still, he now has what qualifies as a history. Also, had he been healthy and playing, we might have a better handle on his future. Instead, with the trade deadline at hand, and perhaps Nathaniel Loweā€™s future as a Ranger looming as well, Foscue remains something of a question mark.

6. Kumar Rocker, RHP
Slightly Up

He returned from elbow surgery on schedule and has pitched well in Arizona. Last weekendā€™s Frisco debut was encouraging, as he maintained his prior velocity and control with a smoother delivery than heā€™s ever shown. As for concerns about his ultimate role, effectiveness, and long-term health, I think weā€™re stuck with those until he proves what he can or canā€™t do.

7. Anthony Gutierrez, OF

Down Slightly

Gutierrez displayed a much more airborne-oriented swing in Spring Training, but the impact on his fly rate compared to last year has been modest, and his limited power hasnā€™t budged. Heā€™s getting by in a difficult high-A assignment, but thatā€™s it. We need to remember thatā€™s heā€™s 19 and would have been the youngest Opening Day Crawdad by 11 months if not for Walcott, but itā€™s hard to muster enthusiasm until more of that potential appears in games.

8. Jack Leiter, RHP

Up

I understand if you disagree, but hear me out. Is he ready for MLB? No? Is he a starter? I donā€™t know. Is he better than he was at the end of 2023? Very much so. 2023 was a mess, as you recall, and while he earned an end-of-season start with Round Rock, I wouldnā€™t call that a promotion as much as simply another chance to pitch after Friscoā€™s season had ended. In 2024, despite the occasional ugliness, Leiter has the sixth-best strikeout rate in AAA (32.1%), fourth-best gap between K and BB rates (20.5%) and sixth-best swinging strike rate (14.9%). Everyone better than him in these categories is older. He has at times looked like an MLB-worthy starter, not as often as Iā€™d like, but still a far cry from last year, when I sometimes despaired.

9. Jose Corniell, RHP
Down

The decision to protect a young international prospect on the 40 or risk a Rule 5 loss is often difficult. Corniell probably wouldnā€™t have fared well enough against MLB hitters to stick, but he might have, and the risk was losing him for nothing. So, youngsters like Corniell tend to be protected, but the option years are still a formative period, so losing one or perhaps two to injury is detrimental, if not ruinous. (I say ā€œperhapsā€ because Texas could place him on the 60-day IL instead of optioning him in 2025.)

10. Owen White, RHP

Down

The Rangers have used seven pitchers who werenā€™t on the 40-man roster when the season started, while White has made two brief and unsuccessful appearances. Heā€™s actually shown modest improvement in some respects despite a worse ERA than last year, but not enough to inspire any confidence in any MLB role other than emergency.

11. Dustin Harris, OF/1B

Down

The good news is that Harris has improved enough defensively to actually be considered a potential MLB outfielder. Harris has a great eye and squares the ball better than most. What he does not do is hit hard. The worryingly low exit velocities of 2023 have persisted. Harrisā€™s median and 90th-percentile exit velocities are among the lowest in the PCL and would rank at or close to the bottom among Major Leaguers. Even with additional positional flexibility, that lack of velo necessarily limits his potential.

12. Abimelec Ortiz, 1B/OF
Down

Last year, one of every eight balls in play from Ortiz left the yard. This year, one of every 26, and my draft was ā€œone of every 40ā€ until last weekā€™s three homers. For someone like Ortiz, hardly any other analysis is necessary. He is making better contact lately, and perhaps last week represents a resurrection. He doesnā€™t turn 23 until next February.

13. Cameron Cauley, SS/2B
Even

Back in March, Iā€™d harbored hope that Cauley might make a mid-season jump like last year, but at this point Iā€™m expecting a full season in Hickory. The primary difference from 2023 is a 40% decline in walk rate. Cauley has always struck out more than the league average, so concern about his plate discipline is justified. On the other hand, his contact and power are similar to last season, and heā€™s still vey much a middle infielder with terrific speed.

14. Paulino Santana, OF Ā 

Up slightly

The top signing of Texasā€™s 2024 international group was named MVP of the Dominican Summer League All-Star game. Hardly any of his available power appeared in games, but he exhibited strong contact skills and patience in his rookie season. No reason to be anything but satisfied so far.

15. Yeison Morrobel, OF

Down

Morrobel jumped to high-A despite a 2023 sharply shortened by injury and nearly absent of extra-base hits. The anticipated power has appeared but was mostly compressed into May; in the past two months heā€™s batted .165/.247/.211. Some of that might be batted-ball luck, as heā€™s maintained a decent strikeout rate, but at some point the slash stats contain some truth. Barring dramatic change in the final six weeks of 2024, I expect heā€™ll return to high-A next season.

16. Emiliano Teodo, RHP
Up
I came into the season thinking a little too smugly that Teodo would shift to relief after half a season in AA like so many of his predecessors. Instead, Teodo has improved his three pitches (including a still-infrequent but potentially useful change) such that any role shift will at the least be delayed. Concerns remain. Teodoā€™s 15% BB/HBP rate is unacceptable as is; not a single MLB pitcher with at least 10 starts has a rate that high. Heā€™s also a skinny lad, and I worry about his durability.

17. Echedry Vargas, 2B/SS
Even

One of my strongest impressions in Surprise was disbelief that Vargas struck out in 24% of last yearā€™s plate appearances at the complex. He seemed as contact-oriented as anyone out there of his age. Iā€™m happy to report a K rate of only 19% in low-A, although it comes in odd contrast to an inflated swinging strike rate of 16%. Heā€™s also not doing anything yet to dispel positional concerns. In 55 games at short heā€™s committed 24 errors (10 throwing, 14 fielding). Errors are a poor catch-all defensive stat, but still, 24 is a lot. On the whole, though, heā€™s having a solid first full season.

18. Josh Stephan, RHP

Down slightly

The undrafted South Grand Prairie alum has a decent arsenal, great control, and two straight July injuries. Last year, a back malady ended his season after his AA debut, and he was shelved with elbow inflammation two weeks ago. The prognosis was positive as these things go, but whether heā€™ll reappear in 2024 is uncertain. Stephan aids his 22% strikeout rate with a slew of infield pops, but heā€™s also been more homer-prone.

19. Aidan Curry, RHP
Down slightly

Curry has the frame and stuff to pitch in the Majors, but 2024 hasnā€™t been fun. Some off-the-rails outings ballooned his ERA to double digits in May, and bringing it down has been a process. As Iā€™ve occasionally mentioned, Hickory and the Sally League can be homer-prone environments, and Curry has been very susceptible to hard contact. His control has improved over the course of the season, limiting recent damage, and he has the opportunity to finish the year on the rise.

20. Mitch Bratt, LHP
Up slightly

Bratt has been in Hickory since the beginning of 2022 and made 33 starts. How many more, I wonder? Surely a low number. His fastball has gained a little extra oomph, but Brattā€™s specialty is moving it around wherever he wants along with a slider and change. His walk rate is less than half the league rate, and heā€™s fanned 28% of his opponents.

21. Aaron Zavala, OF
Down

I feel for Zavala, who for a while looked like a potential starter despite a serious spinal injury that could have prevented a professional career entirely. Sad to say, he has yet to recover from internal brace surgery on his elbow late in 2022. Zavala has exemplary patience but has slugged under .300 both of the past two years.

22. Antoine Kelly, LHP
Down

What a bizarre progression. Organization reliever of the year in 2023, borderline Major Leaguer in April, designated for assignment in July. Kelly missed some time with a sore shoulder and then scared everyone with an injury near his elbow that turned out to be a false alarm. After that, however, he was dismally erratic and ineffective, losing his fastballā€™s velocity and control while putting one of every four opponents on base for free. Claimed by the Rockies, Kelly pitched twice against his former teammates last week with predictable results: a scoreless four outs with two Ks and a zero-out mess with twice as many balls as strikes.

23. Marc Church, RHP
Down

Obviously, the shoulder strain is the primary issue. Despite challenging for a roster spot in March, Church in April before the injury was the same talented but frustratingly inconsistent pitcher of 2023.

24. Braylin Morel, OF Ā 

Up slightly

Last year, Morelā€™s 32 extra-base hits were the most in the Dominican Summer league since 2019, and he brought his power stateside in 2024 with ten doubles, five triples, seven homers, and a .575 slugging percentage in the complex league. On to low-A.

25. Marcos Torres, OF/1B
Down slightly

Torres is one of several prospects in recent years to succeed in Arizona only to find the Carolina League a daunting hurdle. The good news is the 19-year-old is showing patience and slugging .503 when he makes contact, about 40 points higher than the park-adjusted league average. The bad is heā€™s striking out every third trip to the plate.

26. Gleider Figuereo, 3B
Even

Like Yeison Morrobel, Figuereo had an injury-shortened and underwhelming full-season debut in 2023. Sent back to Kinston, he improved across the board and hopped to Hickory last month. Figuereo leads the organization with 18 homers including six in 25 games in high-A, but his walk and strikeout rates have wandered in the wrong directions, and LHPs have persistently troubled him.

27. Joseph Montalvo, RHP
Up slightly

Montalvo has struck out more and walked fewer in the jump from low-A to high-A. Heā€™s allowed more homers, but thatā€™s virtually a given due to the change level and hitting environment. Montalvo deals a 92-93 fastball well-coordinated with a sweepy slider and change.

28. Dane Acker, RHP
Even or down slightly

Acker has incrementally improved his control, which is on the high side for a presumed starter. Enough to matter? Iā€™m not sure. Eight months after last fallā€™s 40-man/Rule-5 procedures, I still see someone worthy of a writeup in November but not in the top tier of potential additions.

29. Izack Tiger, RHP

Even

Tiger successfully waited out elbow inflammation and slowly ramped to a late-June return to full-season, where heā€™s pitched exactly as hoped based on eye-catching outings last fall and this spring. He has a starterā€™s repertoire and the short-burst stuff to transition to relief if needed.Ā  Ā 

30. Jesus Lopez, C
Down Slightly
Lopez hasnā€™t necessarily done anything wrong, but neither has he done much to set himself apart. His .250/.307/.267 line is actually around the average for a pitcher-friendly league and park. The problem is most of that production came in the seasonā€™s first month. Since then, heā€™s .204/.256/.319 with a 32% K rate and two IL stints. Catching is hard.