Month: March 2026

Every year, I publish a primer as a guide to my daily reports: how the minors are structured, how the game is played and managed, what I look for, what stats I follow and ignore. This year’s version is largely rewritten (fewer words, more charts), so I’m presenting it whole instead split across two days.

STRUCTURE AND CONTEXT

Does Winning In The Minors Matter?
No. But also yes, a little. Winning is certainly more fun than losing, and some organizations emphasize winning as part of the culture. More to the point, does the quality of a club’s prospects correlate to winning? Here’s the 2025 comparison of a farm’s pre-season ranking (the average of several publications) and the club’s aggregate win rate for their four full-season teams.

Each higher spot in the rankings is worth about 1.2 wins out of an average of 546 games played, and the error bars are large. So, sure, farm talent affects the standings, but only subtly, and you certainly wouldn’t want to conclude that an organization has better prospects simply because it has a better minor league record. 

Minor leagues teams are never populated and almost never operated strictly with winning in mind. For example, OF Dylan Dreiling is new to AA and coming off a decent if not stellar 2025 in high-A. Offseason signing and teammate Orlando Martinez is 28 has 468 games at the upper levels. There’s a decent chance he’ll outhit Dreiling in 2026, but (with due respect) he will not be getting at-bats at Dreiling’s expense. At the same time, a huge chunk of plate appearances and batters faced will be taken by players who won’t ever reach the Majors. 

In terms of strategy, what we might see during the season are some adjustments late in the first and second halves when a team is facing a tight divisional race. Perhaps a rotation wiggled to give a better starter one more shot, heavier reliance on the best relievers in the high-leverage situations, more pitching changes within innings, maybe even some pinch-hitting. 

Park and League 
Any analysis I provide will be in the context of the environment. Here’s the park-adjusted league averages for Texas’s full-season squads in 2025:

Round Rock is very pitcher-friendly compared to the mountain cities of the Pacific Coast League, but the PCL is absurdly hitter-friendly as a whole, such that judging player performances is perilous business. Hub City played neutral in a pitcher-friendly league in its inaugural season. Slugging .400 means one thing at the lower levels and something entirely different in AAA. 

Players hit twice as many homers in AAA as low-A, a combination of physical maturity, the cream rising to the top, a different ball and sometimes more favorable hitting environments. 

Starting Pitchers
They don’t throw like they used to. In 2007, Texas had five farmhands aged 25 or younger throw at least 150 innings, topped by Andrew Walker with 167. Last year, Jose Gonzalez led the Rangers with just 115, followed by Josh Stephan (111) and David Davalillo (107). The median length of a start among Texas’s four full-season teams was exactly four innings, only 37% lasted five, and just 11% lasted six. That’s a function of the schedule, the more protective nature of development, and expanded rosters containing more relievers needing to throw. The strict one-day-off-per-week schedule instituted in 2021 lends itself toward once-a-week starts instead of every five or six days. 

Even so, starting pitchers are supposed to get their work in, so they are often allowed to work through ugly situations that would demand a reliever in the Majors. An early pull is probably due to pitch count rather than results. In general, 30 pitches in an inning is cause for removal, depending on the situation and the pitcher’s age and experience. 

Control is much worse in the minors, a subject I’ll revisit later:

Relievers
In the minors, relievers are much more likely to work on a relatively fixed schedule than be selected for a particular situation. This is the case even in AAA, ostensibly the final proving ground for MLB. Relievers tend to be given a set one or two innings, and mid-inning changes are uncommon. That said, previous AAA manager Doug Davis was given leave to manage closer to MLB fashion, a departure from previous years. We’ll see how new manager Kyle Moore operates.

Texas’s minor league teams rarely have set closers, and duties might be assigned more on trustworthiness than prospect status. 47 Rangers recorded a save in a full-season game last year, led by the eight of Robby Ahlstrom and Gavin Collyer. In the last 18 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None has ever subsequently saved a Major League game.

A minor league team might have ten or more relievers, so outings on consecutive days are almost unheard of at the lower levels and increasingly rare even in AAA. Back-to-back appearances can be a tell that a pitcher is being readied for promotion to Arlington. Certainly, that would be a newsworthy event for someone like Emiliano Teodo or Marc Church. 

Running
Recent rules encouraging base-stealing were tested in the minors before their MLB adoption. In 2021, Texas’s Down East affiliate set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. The next year, the Wood Ducks stole 308, setting the low-A record and falling five shy of the most by any minor league team since at least 1990. Since then, 11 other teams have stolen at least 300 led by Aberdeen’s 363 (2.8 per game!). 

As a percentage of plate appearances, teams run 50% more often in AAA than MLB and 135% more often in low-A. Despite the extra attempts, the success rate is similar across levels, about 78%. 

Substitutes
No iron men in the minors, at least not in the Texas system. Hub City’s Casey Cook led the organization in fewest games missed with 12. With few exceptions (say, a young player temporarily filling an injury hole at an upper level), nobody is going to spend an entire week’s worth of games on the bench. 

Errors and Other Mistakes
They’re much more common in the minors:

The preceding chart undersells the disparity. The lower levels also have more fielder’s choices that result in no outs, ill-advised throws to the plate that allow trailing runners to advance, botched rundows, etc. 

OBSERVATIONS

What I’m Looking For With Hitters
If you’re permitted only one data point to assess a prospect’s status, choose age (relative to others at the same level). Think Sebastian Walcott, Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus getting AA assignments as teenagers. 

Of course, players drafted out of college will be older, so dismissing them for being 23 in high-A would be ridiculous. However, the older the player, the higher the expectations. (Incidentally, that a good many college players don’t handle A-level ball reinforces just how hard the pro game is.) Catchers tend to take more time and deserve more patience.

Texas was (in)famous for aggressive assignments during the late 2000s and into the 2010s but eased back toward the end of that decade. Promotions today feel more player-tailored and less driven by organizational culture. However, last year, high-A Hub City was populated with a bunch of 2024 picks who either skipped or barely saw low-A. 

In terms of the “slash stats” (average, on-base percentage, slugging), I pay more attention to average in the minors than the Majors. Frequent and authoritative contact matters. The stats mean the least at the lowest levels. (Please don’t “stat scout” the Dominican Summer League.) They grow in importance as players advance, especially for players not expected to help with the glove. There is no quality of defense at first base that will compensate for a weak bat. 

The ability to lay off a dubious pitch can define a career. Walks create hitting situations with runners on base, wear down the pitcher, and mitigate inevitable slumps. Overreliance on walks can be a problem, though. Control is often dire at the lower levels, and I don’t blame hitters for falling into a passivity trap. Eventually though, a batter will reach a level at which pitchers generally have acceptable control plus some command, and a passive approach will result in a bunch of uncomfortable two-strike counts. 

Strikeouts aren’t a problem, until they are. Mostly, strikeouts don’t hurt any more than other types of outs, but a strikeout rate far above the league average can indicate the hitter might be overwhelmed at a higher level. 

In terms of mechanics… look, I’m not a scout and would never present myself as being on that level, but I’ve watched a game or two. Originally, I’d presented a list of questions I’m trying to answer (or at least discuss) when seeing hitters and pitchers in person, but it went on forever. You generally know what scouts are looking for. I’m looking for most the same things. I’m just not a professional. 

What I’m Looking For With Pitchers
I list Earned Run Average in the daily reports because it’s a nice shorthand, but I’ll try to mention when the pitcher is performing better or worse than that indication. For example, here’s two Texas minor league relievers from 2025:

Pitcher A: 0.75 ERA, 1 HR per 118 batters, 12% BB, 21% SO
Pitcher B: 3.88 ERA, 1 HR per 105 batters, 11% BB, 27% SO

The pitchers had a similar homer rate, but B walked slightly fewer and struck out many more, yet his ERA was nearly three runs higher. The performance of Pitcher B (Geraldo Carillo) was slightly better than his ERA suggests. Pitcher A (Cole Winn) wasn’t bad – indeed, he pitched his way back to the Majors — but he was very lucky in terms of ERA. Winn had an 88% strand rate in AAA, unrepeatable in the Majors.

Oh, wait. Winn had a 90% strand rate for Texas last year. That’s unrepeatable, unless Winn is going to be peak-level Edwin Diaz henceforth. 

Collectively, homers, walks and strikeouts are more trustworthy indicators of performance than ERA. Homers are tricky because they can vary greatly from year to year, but a pitcher with a high fly rate and tiny homer rate is probably bound for regression. Walks and strikeouts stabilize more quickly. 

In recent years, I’ve consistently mentioned the minors’ worsening control along with increasing strikeout rates (which have actually stabilized recently). What I haven’t done is compare the minors to the Majors. Are MLB pitchers walking more as well? Here’s the median rates across all levels for pitchers who start most of the time:

Minor leaguers have gotten much worse as a group, while MLB pitchers have kept trucking along. I’ve yet to test how many current MLB starters had better-than average control in the minors versus requiring substantial improvement. My hunch is the former is more common. Regardless, a minor league starting prospect sitting on an 11% walk rate has work to do. Very few MLB starters succeed with a rate above 10%. 

How about relievers:

Yes, control among MLB relievers is worse than starters, but not that much worse. And control by relievers in the minors has always been worse than MLB, but that difference has ballooned recently. 

It’s not uncommon to see a minor league reliever thoroughly dominate despite poor control. They walk too many, but they miss so many bats and allow such little contact that the walkers never get to do more than jog to the base and eventually back to the dugout after a third-out K. Examples in the Texas system include Demarcus Evans and Joe Barlow. Pitchers of this type can reach the Majors, but success can be limited. Very few pitchers maintain those minuscule hit rates in the Majors, so the walks eventually cause serious problems. 

I don’t necessarily worry about save opportunities, but I do look at who’s getting the high-leverage situations, some of which occur earlier. For example, in Round Rock’s opener last Friday, Peyton Gray and Gavin Collyer entered mid-inning with runners on base in a tight game. 

Strikeouts are critical for starters and relievers, of course. A pitcher with a below-average K rate had better have plenty of compensatory abilities, like great control and induction of grounders. Interestingly, relievers used to strike out many more batters than starters, but in recent years that gap has disappeared. Comparing Texas’s low-A leagues from past to present, the 50 busiest starters had a strikeout rate of 19% in 2007 and 25% in 2024. The corresponding figures for the 50 relievers finishing the most games were 25% and 24%. 

I usually present a combined walk and HBP rate rather than just walks because hit batters have increased enough to be meaningful. Sometimes, enough to be ridiculous. Low-A Modesto hit 191 batters in 130 games in 2024.

If you want a handy second-order stat, use “K-BB,” which subtracts a pitcher’s BB (or BB+HBP) rate from his SO rate. The best pitchers have high figures, either because they have strikeout ability plus good control or elite bat-missing results that compensate for below-average control. 

What I’m Looking For With Fielders
Defense is hard to assess in the minors. Basic stats like errors don’t tell a complete picture and are sometimes misleading. Shortstop A might make five more errors than Shortstop B but turn an extra 20 grounders into outs. Give me Shortstop A. All games are televised, but that’s no substitute for watching in person, and in any case even I’m not watching four minors league games in full six nights a week. Maybe when I retire. 

Where someone plays is useful information. If Player C is shortstop 80% of the time and Player D splits between second, short and third, that’s worth knowing. If Player C finds himself mostly at second base upon promotion, that’s worth knowing. 

Promotions / Demotions
Promotions and demotions aren’t made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone else’s spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Released? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are often complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than you’d like because Texas has to sort through all these issues. 

Statcast
I haven’t talked much about Statcast in the discussions of what I’m looking for, but its deeply ingrained in what I study and write at the AAA level. Are hitters exhibiting contact rates and exit velocities that will thrive outside the friendly Pacific Coast League setting? Are they mauling fastballs and flailing against the rest?  Are pitchers getting first strikes, missing bats, avoiding too many flies (or surviving them if not), developing a repertoire broad enough to start? 

During Spring Training, I presented a subset of Statcast data for pitchers and hitters on my website, and I intend to do the same for AAA once a large handful of games have been played. 

THE REST

Runs Scored, RBI, Pitcher Wins/Losses
Ignored except as occasional anecdotes. 

Luck 
Statistical variance in baseball is higher that most people think. Some player you like will start the season 2-for-24 or get roughed up in back-to-back starts. Some player you’ve never thought of will hit .320 in April. An exceptionally poor stretch might be cause for concern, but it might also be plain old variance. 

Report Tone
Texas has 26 active Majors Leaguers. Texas also has over 200 minor leaguers, most of whom won’t reach MLB or make much impact if they do. “Losers,” if you’re being heartless.

I’m not heartless, or at least that’s what I tell myself. Reaching even the A levels is an outstanding achievement. The number of “winners” is ridiculously low. In other industries, opportunities can grow with population and the economy. In MLB, 30 owners control the number of jobs. Since 1998, the US population has grown by 25%, the US Gross Domestic Product has increased an inflation-adjusted 89%, and the number of MLB teams has increased by zero.  

Players that don’t make it are not losers. They’ve actually never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with repertoires that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago. There are hitters who would be no worse than capable bench players.

Ultimately, I want to be honest about a player’s likelihood of reaching the Majors and of success at that level, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but I’ll cover anyone having a great day. 

Tables!
I maintain organizational charts here: the 40-man roster (presented by time of addition), team rosters, Rule 5 timetables, minor league schedules, etc.

Social Media
I tend to post much more often to Bluesky than Twitter/X. I cut back sharply on social media in general in 2025, partly for mental health, partly because I was tending to post observations on social media but neglecting to include them in my reports. That’s not fair. I might boost my online output this season, but subscribers come first. 

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, at Sugar Land (HOU) 8
Round Rock: 5 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 1-2, 2 GB

SP Cal Quantrill: 2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 4 BB, 3 SO, 62 P / 35 S
RP Patrick Murphy: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO
RP Ryan Brasier: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO
RP Josh Sborz: 1.2 IP, 1 H (HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 2 SO
Luis Curvelo: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO
CF Alejandro Osuna: 1-3, 2B, BB
1B Justin Foscue: 2-4, 2B

Cal Quantrill posted a 3.54 ERA in 471 MLB innings during 2019-2022 and started Games 1 and 4 of Cleveland’s ’22 ALDS versus the Yankees. He’s never been the same. An ineffective and injury-plagued 2023 led to designation for assignment followed by trips to Colorado, Atlanta and Miami. He’s suffered only a slight decrease in velocity but fewer strikeouts, more walks, homers, and hard contact in general. Quantrill received a little attention when signed as a dark-horse fifth-starter candidate, but I’d venture that was based more on the familiarity of his last name than what he’s done recently, and Spring Training was unkind. Texas hopefully can get him back to where’s he’s in the discussion as a depth starter, but we’re not there now. 

Whatever Josh Sborz’s fate in the organization, the decision will be well-informed. Sborz was among the busier relievers in Arizona and has pitched twice in three AAA games. He missed five bats on seven swings at the slider, although the fastball averaged a mild 92.9. Curvelo has also pitched twice, and Mason Thompson pitched both Saturday and Sunday. Sometimes pitching on consecutive days is a tell that the player is being prepped for MLB duty, but not in Thompson’s case. 

According to Statcast, Trevor Hauver hit a ball 107 MPH off the bat at a 30-degree angle. Result: a flyout to right-center, just 356 feet deep. Last year, MLB and the Pacific Coast League combined for 36 balls hit at this rate ad angle, resulting in 35 homers and a double, with nothing traveling less than 382 feet, and all but two scaling at least 400′. Sugar Land is a pitcher-friendly park, but come on. Either the reading is wrong or Hauver is the unluckiest competitor in the history of sport. Incidentally, the wind was blowing crossways, not in. 

Per a local report, 37-year-old Scottsdale resident Mark Canha had an opt-out but remained in the organization in Surprise rather than joining the Express. He’ll work out there in preparation for a possible call-up, or if another club came calling, Texas would be unlikely to stand in his way. 

1B Abimelec Ortiz had a fine opening weekend for AAA Rochester: two doubles, two singles, five walks, no strikeouts. In Spring Training, he’d quickly played himself out of whatever chance he had of making the Nats (.136/.296/.182). 

Atlanta purchased the contract of LHP Martin Perez.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 2, @ Sugar Land (HOU) 3 (10)
Round Rock: 5 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 1-1, tied for 1st

SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 68 P / 45 S
RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO
RP Alexis Diaz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO
RP Michael Otanez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO
SS Cam Cauley: 1-3, 2 BB, SB (1)
2B Justin Foscue: 2-4, HR (1)

Cam Cauley returned to the lineup unaffected by the HBP that forced an early departure Friday. He saw 34 pitches across his five plate appearances, resulting in a seven-pitch called strikeout, a six-pitch lineout, a seven-pitch single, and walks of five and nine pitches. Cauley has only contacted one ball “hard” (defined as at least 95 MPH off the bat) out of four in play, but the other three are in the 93.7-94.7 range. 

Justin Foscue homered and hit a single at 106.9 MPH, the hardest in play by either team. I’ve pondered since late last year whether his time on the 40 and/or in the organization was reaching an end, but he’s here, and if he’s the hot hand if Texas decides another right-handed bat is needed, he could get one more shot. 

The undrafted Josh Stephan has a respectable mix with a sinker that has occasionally leaned into the mid-nineties but tends low. Tonight averaged 91.6. Stephan has good control but lost a fair number of his strikeouts upon reaching AA, and he was also far more prone to homers. Last year’s end-of-season promotion to AAA wasn’t really a reward conquering the Texas League, but he’s off to a nice start, throwing plenty of strikes and missing five bats with that sinker plus three more with secondaries. 

Marc Church loaded the bases before recording the final out. The slider was feat or famine, accounting for all of his four swinging strikes but also seven of his nine balls. 

Alexis Diaz averaged 94.6 MPH with his fastball, well above the 92.9 of spring and in line with his heyday as a Red. He also threw nine of 12 pitches for strikes. Michel Otanez didn’t land any of three sliders but missed three bats in-zone and got four calls with a fastball averaging 97.9. 

Today’s Starter
AAA: Quantrill

Today’s news: Jacob deGrom was scratched from his start with a stiff neck. Jacob Latz will start. 

Box Scores


AAA: Round Rock 7, at Sugar Land (HOU) 4
Round Rock: 10 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 8 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 1-0, tied for first

SP Trey Supak: 2.1 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 4 BB, 3 SO, 71 P / 38 S
RP Peyton Gray: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO
RP Emiliano Teodo: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 SO
RP Gavin Collyer: 1.1 IP, 2 H (HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO
RP Josh Sborz: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO
RP Luis Curvelo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO
RF Alejandro Osuna: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB
1B Jonah Bride: 2-4, HR (1), BB
2B Justin Foscue: 2-4
SS Cam Cauley: 2-3, HBP
LF Aaron Zavala: 1-4, 2B

In his AAA debut, Cam Cauley lined the first two pitches he saw for singles. After a strikeout, Cauley was hit by a pitch on or near the elbow, which was protected but nevertheless required a visit from the trainer. He stayed in but was replaced two innings later. 

Alejandro Osuna’s lined double at 109.1 MPH off the bat was the game’s hardest hit. His other two balls in play were in the 97-99 range, and he walked twice. 

Peyton Gray replaced an atypically walk-happy Trey Supak with one out and runners at the corners in the 3rd. He struck out Cavan Biggio swinging on a changeup and induced an inning-ending fly. Gray then fanned the side around a single by ex-Ranger Jax Biggers. He missed six bats on 13 swings divided equally between the fastball and change. 

Emiliano Teodo made an Opening Night appearance after no official Spring outings while recovering from lingering back issues. His fastball velocity averaged 98.3, a touch better than last year’s 97.5. As for placement, oh dear…



Teodo plunked his first two opponents and walked the fifth after a strikeout and pop. He had a 32% strike rate and 20% zone rate. It’s a long season. 

Gavin Collyer replaced Teodo with three on and two out in the 6th. After a soft infield single to plate a run, Collyer whiffed Taylor Trammell on the eighth pitch with a 98 fastball. His 7th began with a solo homer and walk, but he recovered to strike out his final two batters. 

Josh Sborz had a scoreless inning. The fastball averaged 92.7, halfway between his Spring (93.6) and last summer’s AAA rehab (91.7), still well below his former MLB levels. I fixate on his velocity more than perhaps I should, as what matters most are the ends, not the means, but then again, Sborz isn’t Cody Bradford. Much of Sborz’s previous success was predicated on running a 95-97 fastball by hitters, and he’s not that pitcher now. In terms of control, the primary issue last night was a curve tailing too far glove-side; opponents stared at all seven out of the zone.

1B Nick Pratto was transferred to the development list. Pitchers Dane Acker, Aidan Anderson and Jose Corniell were also inactive. 


Off until Thursday

Elsewhere
Ex-Ranger Kohl Drake drew the Opening Day start for AAA Reno. In four innings, he surrendered three runs on a couple of homers and struck out six against no walks. The present 6.75 ERA isn’t a bother per se — you try pitching in Reno — but I did notice a drop in velocity. Drake averaged 92.9 with his four-seamer in AAA last year. The Spring Training average was 91.5, and last night fell to 90.7. He missed six bats with it, eight overall, but still, it’s worth following. Drake missed the end of last season due to a shoulder strain. 

No sign yet of Mitch Bratt, traded with Drake and David Hagaman for Merrill Kelly last summer, but former Ranger Dane Dunning will start against Reno as a Tacoma Ranier on Sunday. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: Stephan

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Last year, I halted this feature because the 2020 minor league season was cancelled. Instead, I ran daily history lessons covering the 2007-2024 period. I’ll resume the Five Years Ago feature in 2026 but not on a daily basis until May because there were no games. From my report on March 24, 2021:The Triple A season has been postponed for a month. The original schedule called for Round Rock to begin at the typical time of early April, while the lower levels would have to wait until May. A bunch of people, me included, wondered whether that was possible. In the short run, MLB’s bubble rules and need for continued alternative training sites conflict badly with the economic and practical realities of travel in AAA. While the postponement was virtually expected and probably the wise move, it’s still a disappointment for AAA teams finally given leave to promote themselves after a year at the mercy of the pandemic and MLB’s takeover. 

The minor league season begins tonight, but only for Round Rock. Trey Supak and company will face Houston’s Sugar Land affiliate on the road. Following Supak will be Josh Stephan and Cal Quantrill. The other clubs must wait until next Thursday. Here’s the “break camp” rosters with my thoughts:

AAA ROUND ROCK EXPRESS
Pacific Coast League
Round Rock, Texas
The Dell Diamond (2000)

Pitchers
Dane Acker (Age 26)
Robby Ahlstrom (26)
Aidan Anderson (28)
Ryan Brasier (38)
Marc Church (24) (on 40-man roster)
#30 Gavin Collyer (24)
#4 Jose Corniell (22) (on 40)
Luis Curvelo (25) (on 40)
Alexis Diaz (29)
Austin Gomber (32)
Peyton Gray (30)
Patrick Murphy (30)
Michel Otañez (28) (on 40)
Cal Quantrill (31)
Josh Sborz (32)
Josh Stephan (24)
Trey Supak (29)
#17 Emiliano Teodo (25) (on 40)
Mason Thompson (28)

Numbers for Corniell and others are from MLB Pipeline’s Texas top 30. 

I admit to a lukewarm feeling about the Express entering Spring Training, but the actual roster is more engaging than I expected. Texas will need reinforcements, of course, and we have a host of interesting battles for depth chart supremacy. Luis Curvelo probably tops the relief list, but even that is uncertain. Will Sborz improve enough to warrant a spot (and what happens if he does but none is available)? Can Marc Church (on his final option) and Emiliano Teodo finally maintain both health and consistency? Collyer has the stuff, but can he throw enough strikes? Can the outrighted Diaz recover past form? Might Peyton Gray and his unhittable changeup leapfrog all of them? 

The rotation could be Corniell, Gomber, Murphy, Quantrill, Stephan and Supak. None is tickling my fancy as an MLB replacement starter at present. I’d ultimately prefer Corniell, who made his MLB debut late last season, but he has only 34 innings above high-A. 

This afternoon, Texas re-signed Ryan Brasier to a minor deal. 

Late edit: Of the players listed, Acker, Anderson, Corniell, and Pratto are inactive tonight. Pratto specifically is on the development list.

Catchers
Jose Herrera (29)
Cooper Johnson (27)
Willie MacIver (29) (on 40)

MacIver and Herrera will battle for the upper hand should Jansen or Higgy suffer an injury. Herrera has much more MLB service but a very poor record at the plate. MacIver has better AAA production and the advantage of an existing 40 spot. 

Infielders
Jonah Bride (30)
#13 Cam Cauley (23)
Justin Foscue (27) (on 40)
Richie Martin (31)
Nick Pratto (27)
Tyler Wade (31)

I suppose Cauley had a small chance of repeating AA for a little while, but his standout spring assured a promotion. He and Tyler Wade are the primary competitors for an infield job in Arlington should need arise. Foscue, on his last option, is also a competitor but of a different sort, mostly as a replacement for either Jake Burger or Joc Pederson. Despite his lack of success in MLB, he’s ahead of Nick Pratto, a former top prospect who couldn’t maintain an MLB job a few years ago and hasn’t even hit AAA pitching lately. 

Outfielders
Trevor Hauver (27)
Michael Helman (29) (on 40)
Alejandro Osuna (23) (on 40)
Aaron Zavala (25)

April is Osuna’s chance to prove he deserves a promotion before the older Helman, although Helman is probably preferable as a last-man-on-bench role in order to keep the at-bats flowing for Osuna in AAA. 

Zavala, the 2021 second-rounder, had surprisingly solid chase and whiff rates in AAA following multiple years of trouble recovering from elbow surgery. Those rates ballooned in March, although he continued to post fancy numbers. I wouldn’t totally discount Hauver, who has a bunch of bodies in front of him but has evolved into a solid AAA hitter.

AA FRISCO ROUGHRIDERS
Texas League
Frisco, Texas
Riders Field (2003)

Pitchers
Austin Bergner (28)
Jonathan Brand (26)
Wilian Bormie (24)
Zach Bryant (27)
#7 David Davalillo (23) (on 40)
Janser Lara (29)
Ryan Lobus (25)
Eric Loomis (23)
#14 Leandro Lopez (23) (on 40)
Dylan MacLean (23)
Bryan Magdaleno (25)
Austin Roberts (27)
#5 Winston Santos (23) (on 40)
Blake Townsend (24)
#23 Josh Trentadue (24)
Ricardo Velez (27)

Frisco has four ranked starters led by Winston Santos, who made a season-ending start at Round Rock in 2025 but returns to AA for at least a little while. Last year, I ran a daily feature of Texas’s minor league history including best pitching performances during 2007-2025. In my updated rankings, Davalillo’s 2025 ranks sixth. He has exceptional control, an aspect I’m going to cover more in the upcoming Daily Primer. 

Texas prospect watchers have had an eye on Lopez since he was known as Leandro Calderon and known mostly for a mesmerizing curve. Injuries and oft-errant control have delayed his ascent, but he progressed exceptionally in 2025 and wowed in Surprise. Trentadue pitched much better than his 2024 ERA of 4.46 would indicate, and he steamrolled high-A last season before running into control issues at Frisco.

Bormie can reach 100 and miss bats at will. He could reach the Majors this year. He could also issues bases-loaded walks in back-to-back outings. Loomis was indomitable in high-A and a hot mess in 7.2 Frisco innings (39% SO, 24% BB+HBP).  

Frisco has six offseason mound signings: Bergner, Brand (a minor league Rule 5), Bryant, Roberts, Townsend and Velez.

Catchers
Julian Brock (24)
Tucker Mitchell (25)
Ian Moller (23)

Here’s where we run into trouble. At the calendar end of 2025, Frisco had six position players, and no hitters in Hub City other than perhaps Dylan Dreiling had made a strong case for promotion. (And Walcott’s injury sure didn’t help.) So, absent aggressive roster assignments, management would be forced to sign several free agents to complete the roster, and that in fact is what occurred. 

At catcher, though, everyone is home-grown. Ian Moller is the highest pick (4th round, 2021), reaching AA almost entirely via patience (219 career BB+HBP, 217 hits). All three were here for at least part of 2025, and Frisco’s batteries were among the best in minor league ball at shutting down the running game. 

Infielders
Jack Blomgren (27)
Frainyer Chavez (26)
Theo Hardy (24)
Keyber Rodriguez (25)
John Taylor (24)

Rodriguez and Chavez are in their ninth seasons in the organization. The undrafted Hardy has bounced around multiple levels during 2024-2025 depending on organizational need. Taylor was plucked out of the indy Atlantic League last year and reached base at a nice clip while playing six positions, mostly shortstop. The free agent Blomgren has a nifty .398 career OBP but only 300 plate appearances in the past four seasons. 

Outfielders
#10 Dylan Dreiling (22)
Keith Jones II (23)
Marcus Lee Sang (25)
Orlando Martinez (28)
Jake Snider (27)

The 2024 second-rounder Dreiling hit .226/.319/.381 at Hub City, not awe-inspiring but good for a 112 OPS+ in the light-hitting South Atlantic League. Dreiling has a terrific contact rate and air-oriented swing. He was also very patient, arguably to a fault, watching 62% of pitches and taking a very high number of called strikes.  

Jones, a 9th-round senior sign from the same class, was the first 2024 pick to reach AA. His approach is similar to Dreiling, if more inclined to grounders. Lee Sang, Martinez and Snider are all offseason signings. 

HIGH-A HUB CITY SPARTANBURGERS
South Atlantic League
Spartanburg, South Carolina
Fifth Third Park (2025)

Pitchers
Joe Adametz (26)
#28 Ismael Agreda (22)
Aidan Curry (23)
Joey Danielson (25) 
J’Briell Easley (24)
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (25)
Thomas Ireland (23)
D.J. McCarty (23)
#12 Dalton Pence (23)
Brock Porter (22) 
Josh Sanders (24)
Luke Savage (24)
Enrique Segura (21)
Cole Stasio (24)
Anthony Susac (23)
Paxton Thompson (26)
Adonis Villavicencio (25)

Pence has adapted well to starting and might spend more than half the season at Frisco. Agreda was a short-burst starter at Hickory, facing around 16 batters per outing, stingy with hits but generous with free passes. He had the second-fastest recorded pitch of any Ranger in Spring Training, 99.9 MPH. 

Danielson was Loomis’s tag-team partner in Hub City, very effective and promoted simultaneously to Frisco, but he had trouble with walks as well in AA. He didn’t appear in a spring game and finds himself back in Hub City for the moment. Porter (2022 4th-round pick but 1st-round talent) spent most of 2024 in Hickory, where he posted a 3.06 ERA and fanned 27% of opponents but walked or hit 17%. 

Catchers
Ben Hartl (23)
#18 Malcolm Moore (22)
Cal Stark (23)

Hub City has a bunch of repeating position players, not a surprise given the fairly aggressive nature of last year’s assignments to the squad. The good news is that nobody in Frisco is blocking a promotion. 

Top 2024 pick Malcolm Moore had a rough 2025, and not just because of an unlucky injury that sidelined him for two months. He hit .198/.293/.271 (72 OPS+) at Hub City and .213/.275/.328 in the Arizona Fall League. True, catchers require more patience, and perhaps the injury affected his results, but 2026 still feels like a make-or-break year. 

Infielders
Arturo Disla (25)
Gleider Figuereo (21)
Luke Hanson (22)
Rafe Perich (23)
Chandler Pollard (21)

Gleider Figuero has fallen off the lower levels of the top 30. He’s still just 21 and popped 38 homers the last two years but hasn’t provided much else, and he’s strictly a corner man. Perich (2024, 7th round) impressed me in Surprise last spring but didn’t really shine at the A levels aside from a predictably high walk rate.

The undrafted Disla is generously listed at 240 pounds. He belted eight homers in just 34 high-A games in 2024 but only nine in 99 games last year. The speedy, versatile Pollard (2022, 5th round) was injured in his first high-A game last June and missed the rest of the season. 

Outfielders
#29 Anthony Gutierrez (21)
#21 Paxton Kling (22)
Antonis Macias (21)
#24 Maxton Martin (20)
Yeison Morrobel (22)
Quincy Scott (23)

An outfield collision ended Kling’s 2025 a little early. He hit only .244/.329/.311 in 11 games but was far better at Hickory and generally impressed in all aspects. Martin took a big step forward after two ordinary seasons at the complex, clubbing 14 homers and 34 other extra-base hits. He’s not fast but has exceptional base prowess, swiping 21 bases without ever being caught as a professional. 

In 2024, Anthony Gutierrez radically altered his swing, but his production didn’t budge, and 2025 was a repeat. He’s six months younger than Figuero but also beginning his fourth season at an A level. He can run and man center capably in terms of both range and arm. Morrobel is one of good number of Texas prospects who has struggled with the sizable jump from the complex to low-A. (That’s not a Texas issue per se, as the elimination of short-season ball has made life tougher for many pro players.) 

LOW-A HICKORY CRAWDADS
Carolina League
Hickory, North Carolina
L.P. Frans Stadium (1993)

Pitchers
Angel Anazco (24) 
Alejandro Chiquillo (23)
Aidan Deakins (22)
Jake Jekielek (23)
Jesus Lafalaise (21)
Louis Marinaro (21)
Frank Martinez (23)
J.D. McReynolds (23)
Aneudis Mejia (22) 
Moises Morales (22) 
Luimy Munoz (23)
Jormy Nivar (22)
Geury Rodriguez (21) 
#3 AJ Russell (21) 
Evan Siary (22)
Michael Trausch (22)
Wily Villar (27)

Russell has no real-game pro experience but is the one ranked pitcher. Reading about him in various publications reminds me of Alejandro Rosario in that the Rangers saw a strong  but underdeveloped pitch mix that they intend to improve. 

The other newcomers are Chiquillo, Marinaro, McReynolds, Morales and Munoz.

Management put Jormy Nivar and Wily Villar on the same team specifically to confuse me. Villar is a fun story, a 26-year-old rookie who reached 100 MPH and struck out 41 in 30 innings between the DSL and Arizona. His late-season stint in Hickory was marked by extreme wildness. Nivar pitched well in 17 low-A innings after getting knocked around in Arizona. 

Catchers
Josh Springer (19)
Juan Sulbaran (20)
Jhocsuanth Vargas (19)

Infielders
Angel Arredondo (19)
#8 Yolfran Castillo (19)
Carter Garate (22)
Pablo Guerrero (19)
Luis Marquez (20)
Esteban Mejia (21)

Texas’s system isn’t rife with hitting prospects, the brightest of them is injured, and several will remain in Arizona, so Rangers Nation turns its lonely eyes to Yolfran Castillo. Castillo hardly ever misses, but his impact was oddly muted: .269/.310/.366 at the complex and .255/.325/.321 in Hickory. I’m hoping for more. 

Vlad’s son reached low-A a day before reaching adulthood in 2024, but he’s yet to hit his way out. Garate, undrafted out of Oregon, is the lone position player lacking any full-season experience. 

Outfielders
Braylin Morel (20)
Hector Osorio (20)
#22 Paulino Santana (19)
Marcos Torres (21)
Deward Tovar (19)

Osorio and Torres have the most low-A experience and are likely the first two outfielders to graduate. Osorio commands the zone best (55 walks, 43 strikeouts in 2025) and might have a little more pop hiding in there. Torres repeated the level last year and improved his contact rate from a futile 61% to 75%. 

Morel had a bear of a 2025, losing contact, walks and power from his promising 2024 at the complex. The younger Santana had a more patient approach but wasn’t rewarded, as he didn’t walk much and missed just as often when he did swing. Tovar is the greenest, having spent all but seven 2025 games in Arizona (.313/.434/.536). 

Unassigned MLB Top 30 Prospects
#1 IF Sebastian Walcott (injured)
#2 RHP Caden Scarborough (recovering from offseason melanoma surgery)
#6 IF/P Josh Owens (headed for Arizona Complex League)
#9 OF Elian Rosario (young)
#11 RHP Izack Tiger (TJ recovery)
#15 IF/P Seong-Jun Kim (18, presumably Complex)
#16 OF Elorky Rodriguez (18, presumably Complex)
#18 IF Jack Wheeler (19, presumably Complex)
#20 RHP Mason McConnaughey (TJ recovery)
#26 LHP Ben Abeldt (TJ recovery)
#27 RHP Jacob Johnson (19, presumably Complex)

Unassigned
AAA/MLB level in 2025 – pitchers Ben Anderson and Josh Hejka, IF Andrew Velazquez, OF Dairon Blanco, Mark Canha and Gilberto Celestino

Blanco was designated for assignment to make room for Andrew McCutchen. He’s been outrighted before and can declare free agency if he clears waivers. Texas chose this rather than placing one of the Codys (Bradford, Freeman) on the 60-day IL, which would have sustained a spot for Blanco. 

Canha will stay in the organization (per local reports) but wasn’t named to the initial AAA roster. Celestino was a mid-camp addition. 

High-A level – pitchers Jesus Gamez, Case Matter,  Caden Scarborough, Kai Wynyard
Low-A level – pitchers Kamdyn Perry, Owen Proksch and Maicol Reyes, catcher Jack Collins, IF/P Josh Owens, and OF Marco Argudin.

Scarborough and Owens I mentioned. Argudin received a late-‘25 low-A assignment straight from the Dominican Summer League but didn’t appear. I expect he’ll debut at the complex.

Spring Breakout Recap
Against Kansas City, Starter Dalton Pence struck out the side in order following an opening walk. In the second, he walked two more on nine pitches but also fanned a couple. He would face two more in the 3rd, retiring one and watching the other reach on an error. Pence’s fastball dwindled from 93 in the 1st to 90 by the 3rd, noteworthy because he spent his college years in the bullpen. However, last season’s switch from relief was quite encouraging, and the gap between the Breakout game and Opening Night for his minor league team is 20 days. Pence relied heavily on that rising fastball, adding only a handful of sliders, changes and curves. 

Two-wayer Seong-Jun Kim dealt a scoreless 4th with one double, aided by a liner to 3B Jack Wheeler resulting in a double play. Kim’s four-seamer averaged 93 with 16 inches of induced vertical break, and he added an 83ish slider. He also went 0-for-2 as a DH. Still just 18, Kim has scant pro experience consisting of one pitching appearance and a few at-bats in the Dominican Summer League. 

Josh Trentadue had a rough day: six batters in the 5th, a Wilian Bormie interlude, five more batters in the 6th, just three retired overall, three walks, four hits, six runs. The four-seamer averaged 93.4 but lacked location, registering only a 30% in-zone rate and 40% strike rate. Trentadue has back-of-rotation potential, but his control declined sharply upon promotion to Frisco last summer. 

Gavin Collyer already owned Texas’s fastest pitch in a “real” Spring Training game at 99.8 MPH, but in the Breakout he reached an even 100 for a swinging strike. Collyer impressed this spring but in early games had a strike rate below 60%. Lately, he’s been much better, and if he can maintain that, he’ll be among the top contenders for replacing injured or ineffective relievers in Arlington. 

Texas’s hardest throwers by maximum velocity in Spring Training:
Gavin Collyer – 100.0 (Breakout)
Ismael Agreda – 99.9 (Breakout)
Jack Leiter – 99.6 (MLB)
Wilian Bormie – 98.8 (Breakout)
Michel Otanez – 98.8 (MLB)
Kumar Rocker – 98.5 (MLB)
Jacob deGrom – 98.4 (MLB)
Aidan Curry – 98.4 (Breakout)

The 24-year-old Bormie escaped Trentadue’s inning with a called K using a 97-99 fastball and a couple of mid-80s sliders. Ismael Agreda, 22, threw five pitches that would round up to 100 on a tv screen and five more at 99. He added several mid-80s sliders and a few tailing curves hovering around 79. He missed only one bat, though, and most contact was hard. Both have the stuff but lack the control. 

The bats were light on excitement, mustering three hits and five walks. Texas hit six balls in excess of 103 miles per hour (1B Maxton Martin leading at 109, 1B Pablo Guerrero, RF Dylan Dreiling, 2B Antonis Macias twice, and 3B Gleider Figuereo), but only Dreiling managed to reach safely. SS Curley Martha doubled down the line to right, and CF Marcos Torres flared a single. 

Statcast info and boxscore from the game. 

Other News
Kumar Rocker rallied to win the final rotation spot. Good for him. My spreadsheet preview said in part: “[he] needs to be normal for once.” He’s always been weird. Sometimes weird in a dazzling way like the 2024 return from elbow surgery, but weird nonetheless. Wild swings in velocity. Idiosyncratic mechanics. Pitch types gained, discarded, rediscovered. If he could be steadily, blandly effective, within shouting distance of league average, that would be a boon to the team’s chances. 

Jacob Latz lost his way down the stretch. Hopefully he finds it because he’s no less important within a cobbled-together bullpen, plus he may be needed to start later. The last time Texas used fewer than ten starters in a season was 2011. 

Carter Baumler more-or-less won a battle with Josh Sborz for a single bullpen spot. He missed fewer bats but delivered more strikes overall and fared better on contact. He also threw two tics harder with the fastball and three with the secondaries. Critically, the Rangers faced the cardinal decision on Baumler now, while Sborz’s fate can be delayed until after a handful of AAA appearances. Luis Curvelo might outpitch them both, but since he has options he’ll yield to others for now. 

Cal Quantrill looked swell Tuesday in his first real game in nearly a month, albeit against late-inning subs. Who knows. 

Did Joc Pederson ever need Tuesday’s homer, his first extra-base hit of the spring. A few days ago, I’d argued for a potential uptick in his production (then .172/.314/.172) based on respectable Statcast data. Since that time, instead of an improvement in the slash stats, the data headed downward, primarily in the form of additional swinging strikes. Among 40-man members entering the spring, Pederson ended up tied with the lowest overall contact rate (66%) and lowest alone on out-of-zone pitches (42%), although his chase rate was acceptable as were the various measures of exit velocity. 

To The 60-Day IL
RHP Paul Bonzagni (holdover from last year’s TJ)
RHP Declan Cronin (free agent recovering from surgery, has a 2-year deal)
RHP Brooks Fowler
RHP Alberto Mota (hurt last year as well)
RHP William Privette
RHP Julius Sanchez (2025 18th-rounder, injured when picked)
RHP Izack Tiger (holdover from last year’s TJ)
C Jesus Lopez
IF Sebastian Walcott (brace surgery on elbow)
OF Casey Cook (2024 3rd-rounder)

To The Full-Season IL
RHP Nabil Crismatt (injured early in ST)
LHP Kolton Curtis (pitched in 2025 Arizona Fall League)
LHP Larson Kindreich (had appeared once in February)
RHP Daniel Missaki

In the past, these transactions weren’t noteworthy beyond the actual injuries and prognoses. Now, with organization-wide roster limits, injuries can create havoc with filling out minor league rosters. As with the Major League 60-day IL, those on a long-term minor league injured lists don’t count against the cap. 

Released
RHP Ryan Brasier – The vet had an out and took it. He’d improved after two early wipeouts but still wasn’t missing many bats. Even so, he probably would have ranked high on the depth chart had he accepted assignment to Round Rock. 

On Their Final Options
RHP Marc Church
RHP Jose Corniell
RHP Michel Otanez
IF Justin Foscue

Elsewhere
1B Abimelec Ortiz had a rough spring for the Nats, hitting .136/.296/.182 without a single recorded ball in play traveling more than 258 feet in the air. 1B apparently will be manned mostly by Luis Garcia (career 0.8 WAR per 150 games, .266/.299/.410). Ortiz was the most advanced prospect in the MacKenzie Gore trade. I’ll cover the assignments for the others traded in the coming days. 

1B Blaine Crim, never IL-ed professionally in seven previous seasons, had the terrible misfortune of an oblique injury in late February, eliminating any chance of an Opening Day spot. He’s been cleared for activity but is yet to reappear in a game. Colorado claimed him off waivers last summer. 

RHP Daniel Robert – The former Ranger collapsed during his first bullpen session of the spring. Medics were able to transport him to a hospital, and he’s been released. He’d been held back because of a cardiovascular issue and had suffered a similar incident last fall that necessitated both CPR and a defibrillator. He was then fitted with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator.

1B Rowdy Tellez recently signed a minor deal with Atlanta. Pitchers Jon Gray (Thoracic Outlet Syndrome) and Luke Jackson haven’t signed anywhere to my knowledge. OF Marcus Smith signed with the indy Kansas City Monarchs. He’d become a free agent after last season.

I’ve seen no word of Joey Gallo signing anywhere. He’d announced an attempt to return to the Majors as a pitcher following his release from the White Sox last spring. 

Greetings From…
Austin. Still in Austin. Work and my daughter’s upcoming state archery tournament have conspired to keep me homebound. I am hoping to compensate with a later trip, perhaps the Carolinas, perhaps Arizona later on. 

Tables!
I’ve built tables containing a bunch of Statcast data for everyone who’s played this spring. See the ’26hitters’ and ‘26pitchers’ tabs in this set of sheets. Included are pitch results, chase rates (swings at out-of-zone pitches), contact rates in and out of zone, hard-hit and exit velocity info, ground/line/fly/pop info, and (for pitchers) average velocities for each pitch type. Also included are latest outings for pitchers and my original and updated thoughts on player performances and situations. For some stats, I have color codes indicating a performance in the top 25% (green) or bottom 25% (purple) of the league.

My intention is to maintain a similar list for AAA Round Rock during the season. I’ll also work on enhancing the visually appeal, though I can’t promise anything. 

Obviously, the info isn’t to be taken too seriously. The quality of competition in Spring Training varies widely between games and innings, the environment strongly favors hitting, and players are often working on things rather than treating every pitch as career-defining. 

Pitcher Notes 
At present the Opening Day bullpen would appear to be manned by Tyler Alexander, just-signed Jalen Beeks, Robert Garcia, Jakob Junis, Chris Martin, Cole Winn, and two among Carter Baumler, Luis Curvelo, Josh Sborz, and the loser of the battle for fifth starter between Jacob Latz and Kumar Rocker.

Texas signed the 32-year-old lefty Beeks to a Major League deal. Beeks has league-average fastball velocity, but his money pitch is a changeup that missed 35% of swings and yielded minuscule results on contact in 2025. His overall strikeout rate is pretty bland, though. This addition was necessary, as the bullpen looked a little uncertain, particularly since the Rangers lack a sure-fire closer. 

The moderately surprising deletion from the 40 to clear room for Beeks was reliever Alexis Diaz, signed just three months ago. Diaz’s formal outings have been dire, and I assume side sessions weren’t a source of optimism. Diaz cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. With three-plus years of MLB service, he’s in same boat as Dane Dunning last year, permitted to declare free agency but at the forfeiture of his million-dollar deal (plus performance bonuses, if he can rebound). Not a fortune, but since 29 other teams weren’t clamoring to absorb that contract, he’s better off staying put from a monetary standpoint.

Rule 5 selection Carter Baumler has yet to allow a run in 6.2 innings and has fanned six while walking two. He’s dealing a fastball averaging a shade under 96, an 85 curve and a few sliders around 89. The underlying data is solid, if not to the level of the basic stats. He’s throwing plenty of strikes but missing bats at a below-average rate (19% vs Cactus-average 26%), although the contact isn’t causing much damage. He’s reached a maximum of nine batters and 32 pitches in a single outing, and multi-inning mop-up relief could be his initial role if he makes the squad. At the moment, I think he does.

Josh Sborz also has a pleasant line: 7 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts spread across one-inning outings. Recall that last year on rehab, his fastball velocity was well below normal, his location was spotty, and results weren’t there, so I had the unfortunate duty of writing “he can’t pitch in Arlington” on a weekly basis. 

Here’s Sborz’s average fastball and whiff rate during 2023-2026:
2023 (MLB): 96.9, 34%
2024 (MLB): 95.1, 28%
2025 (AAA): 91.7, 23%
2026 (ST): 93.7, 27%

So: better, but still not at the level of 2024, much less 2023. Sborz’s fastest pitch this spring is 94.8, below his average for ‘24. Sborz is here on a minor league deal, and I’m leaning toward some time in the minors to see if he can further reduce the gap between his present and former selves. He has been out of options for ages, so he can’t be an up-and-down reliever, at least not in the traditional sense. 

Both Sborz and NRI Ryan Brasier pitched three times in the last five days, unusual for Spring Training. Brasier has righted the ship after veering well off course early (1.1 IP, 6 R) but has fanned just two in six scoreless March innings. He’s one of those Article XX(b) free agents with a quickly approaching opt-out date, although he could hang around for at least a while as a minor leaguer if persuaded.

Cole Winn’s had a pretty good spring, getting a ton of chases (if only a half-ton of misses) with a five-pitch mix. My late-February spreadsheet comment was “Out of options, probably on unless terrible spring, Rangers need him.” During 2022-2024, when he was either giving up eight runs per nine innings in AAA or recovering from injury, the Rangers were exceedingly patient and protective of his 40 spot That’s a compliment, not a criticism. In nearly every outing, he’d string together at least an inning’s worth of hints at a favorable future if he could just straighten himself out. 

Luis Curvelo is the rare reliever in the system with both options and more than a few minutes of MLB experience. Unfortunately, that means his fate isn’t really in his own hands. The front office might decide he’s one of the top eight and keep him. They might also decide he’s one of the top eight but option him anyway to give someone else a chance. Unfair, but such is life. Regardless, with continued strong outings he’ll force the issue. 

Waiver-pickup Michel Otanez showed why he was claimed and why he was designated in the first place. His staccato delivery is fun to watch and probably disconcerting to hitters, but results were wildly inconsistent. He’s been optioned, and I wouldn’t put rent/mortgage money on him maintaining a 40 spot through early April. I do hope I get to see him in Round Rock, though. 

Gavin Collyer’s average fastball velocity of 97.8 is the highest in the system this spring. He’s fanned eight in 7.2 innings but also walked or hit five. At present his strike rate is a respectable 63%, but until recently it was under 60%, a level at which innings are under constant threat of unraveling. He’d have a better chance as the final piece of a bullpen with no other questions, but that’s not the situation. He is, however, putting himself in a position to be among the earliest call-ups.

Peyton Gray’s fastest spring four-seamer of 94.3 is 0.8 below Collyer’s slowest, but he’s raised his profile as much as anyone. Gray was unscored upon until Monday and has struck out 14 in 8.2 innings while walking none. Nearly half of his pitches have been changeups, and more than half (56%) of opposing swings against them have drawn air. (The league miss rate on changes is 33%.) Gray is 30, originally an undrafted Rockie in 2018, then a Royal, then a Red (but injured) after two years of indy ball, and finally a Ranger as of the previous January. 

Marc Church and Emiliano Teodo are still recovering from last season’s injuries. Church made one appearance and was promptly optioned. 

40-newcomer Leandro Lopez had no realistic chance of making the squad, but if he’d been made available and claimed in the Rule 5 draft and pitched this well for some other team, he’d be making that squad, and we’d all be ill. Lopez has struck out 10 with one walk and one HBP in 4.1 innings. Among Rangers with at least 50 spring pitches, Lopez’s 44% whiff rate is highest, and his repertoire has expanded to six pitches. I expect he’ll return to Frisco and continue to develop as a starter. 

NRIs with MLB experience aside from Sborz and Brasier include Austin Gomber, Patrick Murphy and Cal Quantrill. Murphy hasn’t appeared in a real game in over three weeks. Neither has Quantrill, who received a little attention as a potential fifth-starter fallback because his name is Cal Quantrill, but he hasn’t slowed his precipitous downhill course this spring. His velocity remains okay, but anything in the zone tends to head the opposite direction in a hurry. Gomber has been better, if not exactly encouraging. Beyond the loser of the Rocker/Latz battle, ranking Texas’s starting depth isn’t a fun task. 

Hitter Notes
Joc Pederson has an ugly line (.172/.314/.172)  but looks better under the hood: 58% hard hit, 58% lined or flown, decent chase and contact rates, patient but not passive. That buys some time for the slash stats to (hopefully) catch up to the underlying data, but not an eternity. 

Evan Carter is 0-for-11 against lefties this spring, but the rest is mostly favorable: three walks, just one strikeout, three hard hits out of seven in play, just one swinging strike. Ultimately, like Pederson, only the production will matter, but at the least he’s in a much better position than at this time last year.  

Aaron Zavala is enjoying the best spring among minor leaguers, hitting .480/.536/.800 with a triple and two homers in 28 trips to the plate. That’s fantastic, but he’s also chasing and missing far more than average, and he’s struck out in more than one-third of his appearances. It’s an issue he’s been fighting since elbow surgery preceding the 2023 season. He’s somehow batting .800 and slugging 1.333 when he puts the ball in play. That won’t last, but regardless, he’s entering the season pointed the right direction. 

Alejandro Osuna is hitting .320/.433/.320. Per usual, his contact rates are terrific, but he’s hitting nearly everything on the ground, thus the eight singles and zero extra-base hits. He appears behind Sam Haggerty and Andrew McCutcheon in the pecking order, so his job is to be first in line when a reinforcement is needed. 

Departures
Texas released RHP Grant Cherry and 1B/RF Kleimir Lemos. The undrafted Cherry was signed out of Long Beach State and threw primarily in long relief for low-A Hickory. The 20-year-old Lemos batted .264/.305/.428 at the complex last summer and played a few games for Hickory late. 

Upcoming
Analysis of initial minor league rosters, the annual Daily Report Primer, and actual game reports because Round Rock opens the season in just nine days.