Category: News and Analysis

Winning
These are developmental leagues. Rosters aren’t constructed and games aren’t managed to win. Good prospects aren’t going to be benched if they perform poorly. Does the prospect quality of a system correlate to its performance in the minors? Here’s a chart of every team’s organizational ranking in 2021 per Baseball America and its full-season winning percentage:

Answer: kind of but not really. One higher spot in the rankings is worth about 1.5 wins out of 490 played. The correlation is very loose, and Tampa Bay (#1 rank and record) and Washington (#30 rank, #29 record) are doing all the work. Minus them, rankings and records are almost completely independent of one another. That said, over the years, the quality of Texas’s system has correlated pretty well to its record.

Not all rankings are created equal. An organization stacked with top-100 prospects will receive high marks even if depth is lacking, but that missing depth could result in a weaker record. Even if the Rangers put Corey Seager in Low-A (a move I’d advise against), there’s only so much one guy can do.

Some organizations emphasize winning more than others. For my outsider’s perspective, my concern isn’t about winning as much as excessive losing. What I’d hate to see is a Texas version of last year’s White Sox-affiliated Kannapolis club, which lost its first ten, then 16 of the next 20, and then dropped to 46 games under .500 until an 8-1 finish. That just doesn’t seem conducive to a positive development environment.

Starters
The Rangers have often employed a six-man rotation in the minors of their own volition. Now, the rigid six-games-a-week schedule practically demands it. For viewing purposes, the advantage is that certain pitchers tend to start on a certain day on the week, and one could more easily match a park visit to that start if inclined.

The median length of a start by a Texas full-season minor leaguer in 2021 was 4.0 innings. Only 41% of starts lasted five innings or greater. Even with this limited workload, Texas wants its starters to get their innings in, so pitchers will often be allowed to press through situations that might get an MLB starter pulled. What will get a starter pulled early is excessive pitches. If the inning’s count has crept into the mid-20s with no end in sight, the bullpen will be active. Once it surpasses 30, the pitcher (especially if younger) could be gone unless the batter he’s facing makes the final out.
Relievers
Minor league relievers tend to pitch on a schedule rather than having situational roles, and the lost 2020 combined with expanded rosters (28 in AA/AAA, 30 in A ball) exacerbated that trend. Even in AAA, nominally the final training ground for the Majors, relievers usually pitch on prescribed days.  

Pitching on consecutive days, already a rarity below AAA, became exceptionally rare events in 2021. In fact, for a good many pitchers, appearing on fewer than two days rest was uncommon. On August 7 in Round Rock, I was treated to an unexpected outing by Nick Snyder. He’d pitched on the 5th, so I assumed he was unavailable that night, but he made his first appearance of the season with fewer than two day’s rest. (It was, perhaps not coincidentally, his worst outing of the season.)

32-year-old James Jones appeared back-to-back once in AAA, as did 30-year-old Buck Farmer. Round Rock’s busiest relievers, all in their 20s but far from newcomers – Jake Lemoine, Ryder Ryan and Luis Ortiz – never did.

30 Texas minor leaguers saved a game last year. None had more than eight. Teams don’t have closers, or to the extent they do, they’re more like to rely on someone who might have a lower ceiling but is the most trustworthy at that level. In the last 14 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None of them has ever subsequently saved a Major League game.

Perhaps with the lost 2020 further in the rear-view mirror, AAA will tilt slightly more toward MLB-like usage, but again, with so many relievers vying for innings, I’m not expecting much difference from last year.

Sometimes in critical situations, managers have leeway to use relievers more traditionally. Eudrys Manon, Leury Tejeda, and Destin Dotson earned the lion’s share of late/close innings in Down East’s 2021’s playoff drive. Frisco leaned heavily on 2021 draftee Chase Lee and Daniel Robert down the stretch. In fact, Robert made his first-ever no-rest appearance on the seasons’ final day. (Regretfully, he was on fumes, got lit up, and Frisco lost a division lead held the entire season to that point.)

Batting Orders
They aren’t necessarily optimized for run production and often don’t align with the relative qualities of the prospects. Don’t worry about them.

Walks and Strikeouts
Both tend to increase as you descend the organizational ladders. Walks exploded in low-A in 2021, partly because of an unscheduled year off and partly because of the automated umpiring used in the Low-A southeast. The highest six team walk rates and seven of the nine highest team strikeout rates in low-A history were set last year. Strikeouts, as you know, are at historic levels. Not that long ago, almost any pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate was noteworthy. Last year, the low-A San Jose Giants had a team rate of 31.5%. (San Jose’s home stadium has an notoriously difficult batter’s eye, but still.)

Errors and “Mistakes”
The number of miscues that give the opposition free runners or bases increases greatly at the lower levels.

If you attend an MLB game, the averaged combined walks, HBPs, errors, balks, wild pitches and passed balls you’re likely to see is nine. In low-A, it’s 14.

Running
In 2021, Low-A as a whole had 1.6 stolen base attempts per game, the most in 20 years. Down East set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. Not coincidentally, a new rule limited pitchers to two “free” pickoff attempts per batter. A third attempt that didn’t result in an out was ruled a balk. Balks increased 60% in low-A compared to 2019, but I have no idea how much of the increase is due to the rule versus tighter rule enforcement and/or generally sloppier play following an absence of games in 2020.

Field and League Context
Here’s the park-adjusted league averages for Texas’s full-season affiliates in 2021:

Round Rock: 5.5 runs per game, .259/.337/.454 slash line
Frisco: 4.9 runs, .248/.332/.398
Hickory: 5.2 runs, .243/.329/.463
Down East: 5.1 runs, .241/.343/.377

Round Rock is pitcher-friendly relative to most of its peers, but the Pacific Coast League is so hitter-oriented as a whole that even Express hitters’ stats have to be viewed with a little cynicism. Down East scored a robust 5.3 runs per game despite an ordinary .244/.344/.379 line courtesy of all those steals and opposition miscues previously mentioned.

Luck
The likelihood of a .250 batter going hitless in any particular 30 consecutive at-bats is extremely small: about 1 in 5,600. Spread that to 36 hitters*  (nine per Texas’s four full-season teams) and the likelihood that someone starts the season 0-for-30 is still tiny: about 1 in 150. But, if you take a whole season with all the hitters and a huge number of overlapping 30-at-bat subsets, there’s a decent chance somebody comes up empty for a long spell. That very thing happened to a good prospect last year, Luisangel Acuna. He brought a shiny .375 average into his fifth game and went 0-for-30 (with six walks and one HBP) over the next nine. Did he have a mechanical issue? A minor injury? Maybe. I don’t remember. Acuna fanned ten times, so 20 balls in play went for naught. Even the weakest of hitters should squeak out a few safeties in that span.

Statistical variance in baseball is much higher than most people think. It’s important not to place too much emphasis on the short run, whether good or bad.

* Of course, Texas isn’t going to stick with the same 36 minor league hitters game after game, but I’m trying to make the math easier.

Promotions
Promotions and demotions aren’t made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone else’s spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are sometimes complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than you’d like because Texas has to sort through all these issues.

Report Tone
Even in a deep system, most of Texas’s minor leaguers aren’t going to reach MLB or make much impact if they do. Texas has 26 (or 28) Major Leaguers and 200+ minor leaguers. The cold math turns most of them into “failures.”

They are not failures. They’re exceptional athletes in an industry with a limited number of jobs. If you’re the 2,000th best accountant in the country, you’re doing great, plus you can start your own business if you want. The 2,000th professional baseball player is in Double A, and he can’t start his own league to compete against MLB. Also, we can argue about the relative entertainment quality of the current high-strikeout era, but the players themselves have never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with stuff that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago.

So, I want to be honest about a player’s chances, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but I’ll cover anyone having a great day.

Texas and their affiliates announced initial minor league rosters yesterday. Here’s a quick rundown. If I don’t mention your guy, don’t worry. We’ve got a whole season in front of us, and I don’t want to use all my material in an intro.

I’ve listed top-30 prospect rankings for Baseball America (BA), MLB, and the most contrarian rankings for Baseball Prospectus (BP) and ESPN.

AAA ROUND ROCK EXPRESS

Round Rock, Texas
Pacific Coast League
Texas affiliate 2011-2018, 2021-present

Pitchers
Justin Anderson
Kohei Arihara
Jason Bahr
Hever Bueno
Jake Latz
Tyson Miller
Daniel Robert
Yerry Rodriguez (MLB 27)
Ryder Ryan
Jesus Tinoco
Nick Tropeano
Dan Winkler
Cole Winn (BA 3, MLB 3)

Cole Winn leads a group of eight faces familiar to Express fans. Winn isn’t first in line to replace a starter in Arlington if needed. He’s not any number on that depth chart. He’s just Cole Winn, prepping for an MLB debut to come when he’s ready, not when external circumstances dictate.

Rodriguez often dominated after switching to multi-inning relief late last season (perhaps not permanently, yet). A young 27, Robert doesn’t throw especially hard but spots impeccably and relies on a slider that has an invisibility cloak.

Tinoco (Rox), Tropeano (Dodgers most recently) and Winkler (Cubs) are offseason signings.

Catchers
Sam Huff (BA 11, MLB 11)
Jack Kruger
Yohel Pozo (BA 28)
Meibrys Viloria

The Rangers have seven catchers with MLB experience including these four. Keeping all probably isn’t possible, particularly assuming the parent club drops to two catchers. Catcher development requires inordinate patience, but even so, it’s a critical year for Huff, who after returning from injury didn’t catch at all and didn’t hit all that well (aside from power).

Infielders
Sherten Apostel
Ryan Dorow
Yonny Hernandez
Josh H. Smith (BA 9, MLB 7, ESPN 5)
Davis Wendzel (MLB 17)

Smith began 2021 in low-A (too low) and has only 127 plate appearances in AA. I thought he might spend a little more time in Frisco, but I wouldn’t call this assignment a surprise. Almost exclusively a shortstop professionally, Smith almost certainly won’t wear a uniform with “Rangers” on it without proficiency at other positions, so we’ll see how he’s used with the Express.

Everybody but Apostel can play second, third and short, and they probably will. Apostel dropped from the prospect rankings after an injury-plagued and so-so 2021, but he’s barely 23 and has a chance to regain ground.

Outfielders
Elier Hernandez
Zach Reks
Bubba Thompson (MLB 29)
Leody Taveras

Although omitted from the 40 last winter, Thompson had a strong 2021 that eased if not eliminated concerns about his bat. His power showed up in games, and his strikeout rate dropped from 32% to 26%.

I saw Taveras at length in 2021, and he genuine improved during his time in Round Rock, but it didn’t translate to a better showing in Arlington. He’s still just 23.

AA FRISCO ROUGHRIDERS
Frisco, Texas
Texas League
Texas affiliate since 2003

Pitchers
Grant Anderson
Cody Bradford (BA 23, MLB 20, ESPN 15)
Tim Brennan
Lucas Jacobsen
Zak Kent (BA 17, MLB 21)
Chase Lee
Jack Leiter (BA 1, MLB 1)
Seth Nordlin
Fernery Ozuna
Cole Ragans (BA 24)
Justin Slaten
Nick Starr
Tyler Thomas
Tai Tiedemann
Avery Weems (BA 18)
Grant Wolfram

Jack Leiter. Sorry, I don’t have anything to add to that. I just wanted to type his name again. He’s a Ranger.

Bradford, Kent, Ragans, Nordlin, Slaten, Weems and Wolfram combined for 95 of Hickory’s 114 starts last year. The first three finished 2021 in Frisco, and the rest are there now. Impressive to have an entire rotation graduate.

Catchers
David Garcia
Jordan Procyshen
Matt Whatley

Barely 22, Garcia earned a 40-man spot before reaching full-season ball, lost that spot last winter, immediately re-signed and now has earned a promotion to AA. His overall numbers call that into question (.261/.299/.349), but he had a better second half. Garcia has always needed time to acclimate offensively.

Whatley has the field presence and defensive chops to play in the Majors, but even catchers have to hit a little, and he hasn’t (.203/.316/.282 in AA as a 25-year-old last year).

Infielders
Diosbel Arias
Blaine Crim
Ezequiel Duran (BA 4, MLB 4)
Trey Hair
Nash Knight
Jonathan Ornelas
Nick Tanielu

Duran, the headliner of the Joey Gallo trade (although not by a large margin), has rarely played short

Crim isn’t a monster physically (no offense), is best-suited to first and doesn’t appear in anyone’s top 30 that I know of, but man, the guy can hit. Crim spent a portion of last year in Frisco and clubbed 29 homers between there and Hickory. He then lorded over Puerto Rico (.406/.452/.594) last winter.

Ornelas’s promotion is a mild surprise, as he batted .261/.310/.394 for high-A Hickory and is still just 21. He can play all over and spent nearly a third of his time in center.

Knight and Tanielu are 29 and vets of AAA. But they’re needed in AA for now.

Outfielders
Sandro Fabian
Dustin Harris (BA 5, MLB 6, ESPN 8)
Julio P. Martinez
Kellen Strahm
Josh Stowers

Harris is pointedly listed as an outfielder. In the middle of 2021 I began seeing him described as a four-corner guy, which sounded swell but didn’t jibe with his near-constant presence at first. Harris did start at third more often down the stretch and will make his debut in the grass next week. He added power (20 HR) to his already superior contact ability, vaulting him up the prospect rankings.

Strahm isn’t a kid (soon 25, a senior sign out of San Jose St.) and has played in only 101 games in three years because of injuries and covid, but he’s got a nice mix of OBP skills, speed and defense.

Stowers (part of the Odor traded) hit the 20/20 mark last year in Frisco. The 24-year-old Fabian is a minor league free agent with 15 homers at AA Richmond last year.

HIGH-A HICKORY CRAWDADS
Hickory, North Carolina
South Atlantic League
Texas affiliate since 2009

Pitchers
Ben Anderson
Marc Church
Joe Corbett
Mason Englert
Kevin Gowdy
Nick Krauth
Jesus Linarez
Eudrys Manon
John Matthews
Juan Mejia
Spencer Mraz
Triston Polley
Tekoah Roby (BA 14, MLB 15)
Josh D. Smith
Ricky Vanasco (BA 13, MLB 14)
Owen White (BA 7, MLB 8)

Based on everything I’ve heard about White lately, those rankings are going to appear conservative before long. Let’s hope so. Joining him is Englert, drafted two rounds after White in 2018 and with a similarly injury-delayed intro to pro ball. TK Roby, 2020’s 2^nd-round pick, won’t turn 21 until after the season, Vanasco, placed on the 40 with a stitched-up elbow and no full-season experience, finally gets a chance to build on his breakout 2019.  

Catchers
Randy Florentino
Cody Freeman
Scott Kapers

A converted infielder, Freeman didn’t catch after returning from an injury last year, but he’s once again behind the plate.

Infielders
Luisangel Acuna (BA 10, MLB 10)
Frainyer Chavez
Jake Guenther
Cristian Inoa
Keyber Rodriguez
Thomas Saggese (MLB 28)
Chris Seise

Picked 29^th overall in 2017, Chris Seise’s constant stream of injuries have limited him to 82 pro games. Given his luck, he was probably healthiest during 2020. Acuna stuck to second base after mid-July. He has the arm for the left side and was back at short during intersquads. The 19-year-old Saggese (2020, 5^th round) walked at will in low-A and split duties between second, third and short.

Outfielders
Angel Aponte
Evan Carter (BA 8, MLB 9)
Trevor Hauver (BA 22, MLB 19)
Aaron Zavala (BA 12, MLB 12)

The Rangers drafted the then-unheralded Carter in 2020 based on where they thought he’d rank had his senior high school season not been truncated by covid. A prescient move, given how quickly Carter established his prospect bona fides. They’ve treated him the same way now, promoting him to high-A despite a back injury that ended his 2021 after six weeks.

Hauver is 23 now and had a decent showing in Hickory (.246/.357/.426) but hasn’t staked out a position, so figuring out where he fits is probably easier with a return engagement.

LOW-A DOWN EAST WOOD DUCKS
Kinston, North Carolina
Carolina League
Texas affiliate since 2017

Pitchers
Michael Brewer
Gavin Collyer
Jose Corniell
Destin Dotson
Eris Filpo
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa
Larson Kindreich
Nick Lockhart
Dylan MacLean
Theo McDowell
Damian Mendoza
Teodoro Ortega
Winston Santos
Josh Stephan
Leury Tejada
Emiliano Teodo
Bradford Webb

Not a bad set of pitchers despite the absence of top-30 recognition. Teodo features a triple-digit fastball and high-spin curve. The 19-year-old Santos has good control and touched 97 in camp. Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa fanned 38 in 22.2 innings with the rookies last year. He’s nicknamed “Bubba,” and given the length of his birth name, I might just list him as simply Bubba in the game recaps. Kindreich (2021, 8^th round) struck out 18 against three walks in eight rookie innings.

Dotson and Tejeda were entrusted with critical relief innings during Down East’s playoff drive last September.

Catchers
Tucker Mitchell
Efrenyer Narvaez
Brady Smith

If all goes to plan, you’ll read the name Efrenyer Narvaez frequently. How many catchers, even in rookie ball, can post a .353/.428/.500 line?

Infielders
Jose Acosta
Maximo Acosta (BA 21, MLB 13)
Derwin Barreto
Abimelec Ortiz
Junior Paniagua
Yenci Pena

Thoracic outlet syndrome reduced Acosta’s pro debut to 17 lackluster games and dimmed his star a little. Still, he earned the promotion to full-season.

Outfielders
Yosy Galan
Daniel Mateo (BA 30)
Alejandro Osuna
Jose Rodriguez
Marcus Smith

Smith, more highly regarded than Dustin Harris when both were acquired for Mike Minor, has barely played because of hamstring problems. Like Seise, he could regain status quickly with good health.

Galan started the rookie season 0-for-13 with ten strikeouts, and proceeded to hit .274/.350/.573 and rank second with ten homers in 47 games.  

Unassigned Players Ranked By BA or MLB
3B Josh Jung (BA 2, MLB 2)
IF Justin Foscue (BA 6, MLB 5, BP 3)
Glenn Otto (BA 15, MLB 26, BP 8)
OF Yeison Morrobel (BA 16, MLB 18)
OF Bayron Lora (BA 19)
LHP Mitch Bratt (BA 20, MLB 23)
IF Cam Cauley (BA 25, MLB 22)
RHP Dane Acker (BA 26, MLB 24)
LHP AJ Alexy (BA 27, MLB 25, BP 10)
IF Danyer Cueva (BA 29, MLB 30)
OF Anthony Gutierrez (MLB 16)

Jung you know about. Foscue has back soreness. Acker is coming off elbow surgery. The rest are in limbo between MLB and AAA, with fates determined in the next few days, or are too green to earn their first full-season assignment.

Other Unassigned Players
LHP Brock Burke
RHP Matt Bush
RHP Demarcus Evans
RHP Greg Holland
LHP Matt Moore
RHP Brandon Workman
IF Charlie Culberson
OF Joe McCarthy
OF Steele Walker
OF Jake Marisnick
IF Matt Carpenter

Limbo is crowded.

Released / Retired

OF Carl Chester — The player to be named in last year’s trade for Nathaniel Lowe. Chester batted .1856/.235/.305 in AAA last year.

RHP Mason Cole – Sorry, Aggie fans. Texas 27th-round selection in 2019 had a walk-heavy 4.01 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 24.2 innings for Down East last year.

RHP Luke Schiltz – Picked three spots ahead of Cole, the 21-year-old fanned and walked 19 in 16.1 innings with a 7.71 ERA for the rookie squad last year.

RHP Adam McKillican and Connor Sechler – free agents who reached A levels in 2021.

RHP Josh Advocate – Texas’s 20th-rounder from 2017 has retired. He missed most of 2021. Advocate pitched well in long relief for high-A Down East in 2019.

RHP Nick Yoder – Also retired. Texas’s 34th-rounder for 2019.

Outbound

RHP Collin Wiles signed with the Athletics. Wiles spent nine years in the Texas system, most recently acquitting himself well during his first action in Triple A. RHP Joe Gatto signed with Philly. Texas signed Gatto to a Major League deal the previous winter, only to see him pitch so poorly in Surprise that he was designated for assignment and unclaimed. Gatto quickly improved enough to pitch well in AA and AAA, but not well enough for Texas to re-40 him.

Finally

1) Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid and I recorded a podcast Wednesday, focusing on Tepid’s visit to Arizona. Link in signature.
2) The Dodgers traded for Craig Kimbrel one day after the pen allowed a homer to Corey Seager.

Texas’s Top 100 Prospects
3B Josh Jung: 9th by FanGraphs, 19th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 26th by Baseball America, 31st by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Jack Leiter: 20th by Baseball Prospectus, 24th by FanGraphs, 25th by Baseball America, 36th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN)

IF Justin Foscue: 50th by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Cole Winn: 52nd by FanGraphs, 60th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 61st by Baseball America, 91st by Baseball Prospectus

IF Ezequiel Duran: 68th by FanGraphs, 99th by Baseball Prospectus

RHP Owen White: 84th by FanGraphs

IF Josh Smith: 89th by FanGraphs

I believe all the Jung placements pre-date his injury. On a subsequent podcast, FanGraphers Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein suggested he’d rank in the sixties as is.

Organization Farm Rankings
8th by Baseball Prospectus, (13th in 2021)
9th by Baseball America (24th last year)
10th by Kiley McDaniel / ESPN (20th last year)

Trade
Both Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim have strong defensive reps, especially in terms of pitch-calling, but Texas’s catchers combined to hit .223/.257/.367 in 2021. Texas’s offense hasn’t been better than its pitching since 2016, and even then, just barely. 2020 was the franchise’s worst offensive season, and 2021 was no better than third-worst. This team desperately needs hitting. Mitch Garver will hit. (Also, the free agent market for catchers was exceptionally bleak.)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa admitted some grumpiness upon Texas’s acquisition of Seagar and Semien, and I can’t blame him. IKF’s bat has been worth about 1.5 wins below average (average, not replacement) per 600 plate appearances, but he’s compensated by fielding well at a premium position. Defense saved last year’s squad from a win total in the 50s. But again, the Rangers are focused on upgrading an atrocious offense. That’s not to pin it on IKF, who has an acceptable lifetime .316 OBP, but he’s the biggest trade chip if the strategy is to sacrifice some defense in exchange for hitting.

Kiner-Falefa received scant attention nationally while climbing the system, but those of us who focus mostly on the Rangers were on to him despite his lack of even doubles power at the time. IKF squeezes more out of his ability than just about any Ranger I’ve seen. He will not be denied. Best wishes to him.

I enjoy watching RHP Ronny Henriquez, but he’s the type you readily relinquish to push a deal for a starting position player over the line. His fastball is lively and angry, backed up by a capable if inconsistent slider and change. I saw him and Yerry Rodriguez back-to-back last July. Rodriguez’s fastball impressed the most, but Henriquez looked more likely to remain a starter. Henriquez induced nine swinging strikes with his slider. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henriquez slide into a reliever role.
Here
I hadn’t thought of Brad Miller as an option. He’s 32. He’s wandered through six clubhouses during the past four years. He’s made only 57 of his 700 career starts at positions needing the most help in Texas (3B, LF). But even with all the address changes, Miller has batted .250/.344/.487 against righties since 2018. Miller used to man short regularly, so I’d venture he could form the strong side of a platoon at 3B or LF despite the relative lack of experience. Against lefties, Miller actually homers at a similar rate, about one per 21 PA, but otherwise is of no help.   

Martin Perez! Perez has averaged roughly one WAR per 100-150 innings in his career, and if he can give Texas 150 slightly-above-replacement innings in 2021, he’s a fine addition. Prior to his signing, Texas was in the position of asking some combination of Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, AJ Alexy, Glenn Otto, Kolby Allard, and perhaps a few others to fill three rotation spots behind John Gray and Dane Dunning. That’s a big ask. Perez will alleviate that pressure.

Free Agents back with Texas: LHP Sal Mendez, RHP Jesus Linarez, C Jordan Procyshen, IF Trey Hair, and as of yesterday, IF Charlie Culberson.

Among the recent signings to minor deals is OF Jake Marisnick, who’s totaled 11 wins above replacement in 800 games despite a .228/.282/.384 line, courtesy of superior defense. A nice depth signing and possibly more, depending on what Texas can do to fortify a still-thin outfield. Arlington native and Texas-Ex Brandon Workman is a Ranger following a second stint with the Red Sox. Workman has been off his game the past two years, posting a .5.66 ERA with 34 walks in 47.2 relief innings. Matt Moore, who threw 102 unmemorable innings for the unmemorable 2018 Rangers, is back. And, Texas just signed righty reliever Greg Holland, who’s been all over the map in terms of quality the past four years. The Rangers have some recent success snaring veteran arms, so perhaps Holland could be another.

IFs Nick Tanielu and Nash Knight are Rangers on minor deals. Neither appeared on any transaction list I’ve seen, but they’re on the Spring Training roster. Tanielu will be familiar to Express fans, having played for Round Rock as an Astro in 2019 and visiting last year as a member of the Padres’ El Paso affiliate. Tanileu excelled with the Express (.295/.360/.520) but was oddly ineffective at hitter-friendly El Paso (.233/.299/.415). The 29-year-old Knight — born in Denton, schooled at Dallas Baptist, professionally a Blue Jay until now — has played every position at some but it best regarded as a corner infielder with some moonlighting at second and in left. Both are seeking their MLB debuts.

There
1B Ronald Guzman signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.

San Francisco signed lefty Joe Palumbo to a minor deal. The Giants had declined to offer him a Major League contract after claiming him off waivers from Texas last fall, making him a free agent for a while. He’s a teammate of Luis Ortiz, who also signed with the Giants after spending 2021 in Round Rock.

Lefty Wes Benjamin, who became a free agent after being outrighted last fall, signed a minor deal with the White Sox.

Catcher Melvin Novoa and OF Pedro Gonzales signed with indy teams.

OF Lewis Brinson inked a minor deal with the Astros.

The Cubs signed OF Seiya Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract. Suzuki was the last available player in the “Other People’s Money” portion of my Nov. 16 report wherein I estimated value of lavishing $100 million annually (actually $108) on free agents. I had four and $44 in mind for Suzuki, so good for him on blowing by that.

Name Game
Our long national nightmare is over. MLB is reinstating the traditional monikers for the minor leagues. MLB was able to recast the minors more to its liking after 2020, but it lacked the naming rights. Thus, the stilted Triple A West, Double A South, High A East, and Low A East. They’re gone, never to be uttered again in polite company, replaced by the Pacific Coast League, Texas League, South Atlantic (Sally) League, and Carolina League.

New Rules
All full-season levels will institute a pitch clock of 14 seconds with bases empty and 19 (AAA) or 18 (elsewhere) with runners on. A 20-second pitch clock dates back to 2015 in AAA. I don’t know if the number of clock-enforced balls and strikes has declined, but my feeling is enforcement has become more lax over the years.

All full-season levels will play with the larger bases used in AAA last year. Also, the limit of two pickoffs or step-offs per plate appearance expands from low-A to all full-season leagues. A third pickoff that doesn’t result in an out is deemed a balk. Last year, Texas’s Down East squad set a low-A record with 2.42 steals per game. League-wide stolen base attempts increased 30% vs. 2019, and successful attempts jumped 47%.

The Pacific Coast League and Charlotte in the International League will employ the automated ball/strike system used last year in the Low-A Southeast and Arizona Fall League last year. I have a pet theory that players with superior batting eyes can walk at an outsized rate because they needn’t worry about varying strikes zones among umps or expansion of the zone in three-ball counts. Let’s check the stats:

Number of players drawing at least 1 walk per 6 plate appearances:
All Low-A in 2019 (no robo-ump): 6 players, 0.20 per team
2021 Low-A West and East (no robo-ump): 5 players, 0.28 per team
2021 Low-A Southeast (robo-ump): 18 players, 1.50 per team

Ranger Trevor Hauver is among them; he drew 64 walks in 66 games in Tampa prior to his trade to Texas. I don’t expect an explosion in the AAA walk rate like what occurred in the Low-A Southeast last year. AAA pitchers have better control and are another year removed from the lost 2020. But we might see some hitters really take advantage of a “perfect” strike zone.

Levels below AAA will ban the shift; the four infielders must divide equally on either side of second and plant their spikes in the dirt.

Legal News
Back in 2014, some minor leaguers sued selected MLB clubs and MLB itself over alleged illegal wage and labor practices. The players eventually formed a class that withstood a certification challenge reaching the US Supreme Court. Last week, a federal judge ruled on a host of pre-trial motions, most notably granting the plaintiffs’ summary judgment motion and ruling that the players are indeed “employees” under federal and state law, that players’ currently unpaid activities in spring training complexes are indeed “work,” and that travel time to and from Cal League games is compensable. The judge ordered $1,882,650 in penalties on the Cal League claim, with penalties in other states to be determined at trial if the case proceeds that far. Prior to this ruling, you might recall that MLB’s counsel recently had to defend the notion that minor leaguers not only should not be paid during spring training, but that the instruction and “life skills” received are things the players would pay thousands for at private camps. The judge was not persuaded, stating “defendants’ creative professional exemption defense fails as to all of Plaintiffs’ claims” and “defendants’ method of allocating signing bonuses and tuition payments to offset minimum wage liability is incorrect as a matter of law.”

The amount of money isn’t huge, relatively speaking, but it’s not nothing, and paying players during Spring Training would certainly represent a drastic change in business practices. If a court tells clubs owners they have to pay minor leaguers more money, owners might respond by employing fewer minor leaguers. 40 minor league teams already lost their affiliations after 2020. Under the new agreement, clubs are committed to fielding four full-season minor teams through 2030.

Rule 5 Draft
Cancelled. Unfortunately, also cancelled is my annual trip to Arizona for the third straight year. Pre-CBA uncertainty about whether folks like me would be allowed in Surprise plus grim certainty about my current work schedule forced me to make an unappealing decision. Instead, later on this year I hope to visit Texas’s A-level clubs for the first time since 2011.

Jung
Per local reports, 3B Josh Jung has a left (non-throwing) labral strain that will sideline him for an indefinite period and possibly require surgery. Terrible news for someone who might have won the starting 3B job out of Spring Training. I saw plenty of him last August and September and thought he was ready. At the very least, he was to be among Texas’s most prominent prospects when the minors resume.

FanGraphs.com’s just-revealed top-100 prospect list places Jung 9th, the highest I’ve seen him. I’ll have more on prospect rankings down the road. 

Stock Photo Of Chain And Padlock Draped Over A Baseball

This week’s lengthier MLB-MLBPA discussions are encouraging, but on the whole, the lockout and tenor of ongoing negotiations reminds me of 2020’s reorganization of the minors. In that case, MLB patiently let the agreement with MiLB expire and largely dictated new terms to a collection of teams decimated by the pandemic. (Some have sued, but I don’t think they have much of a case.) In the current situation, MLB owners and management can’t domineer the Players Association as it did MiLB, but they seem willing to accept the loss of games and negative press in order to achieve the same resounding victory.

Fans have the right to be weary and disgusted, especially after two Spring Trainings impacted by the pandemic. I certainly am. However, I absolutely do not buy the “billionaires vs. millionaires” dismissal or the idea of locking them in a room until they work it out. The stakes are too high. For most players, this next CBA will govern what remains of their careers. The draft and reserve clause prevent anything approaching genuine competition for the services of most players. Salaries are essentially fixed. Any improvements in their compensation and working conditions must be obtained now. Likewise, for owners, terms that make the final version of a CBA tend to stick, so anything conceded now could impact profits and asset values well beyond the terms of this agreement.

Per Travis Sawchik of The Score, 63% of MLB players in 2019 had under three years of service time. From 2011 to 2019, the average debut age increased from 24.6 to 25.6, but the percentage of players over 30 has decreased from 40% in 2004 to 30% now.

Entering 2021, the average MLB salary was over $4 million, but that figure is badly skewed by top-tier free agents and has no relevance for the vast majority of players. Roughly 45% of MLB’s active roster have salaries under $1 million. By my count, 30 of Texas’s 40-man roster members have yet to reach arbitration. Of those, I count 17 yet to reach $1 million in cumulative earnings, including signing bonuses. A decent number of them will eventually, of course, and I’m not trying to pass them all off as destitute. But for many of these players, minimum salaries are all they’ll ever see, so I think the union is right to weigh them heavily in the negotiations.

One Hundred Fifty

Connected to the critical monetary issues is MLB’s request (withdrawn as of Monday) for the power to lower the number of US-based minor leaguers per club from 180 to as few as 150. In the past, individual minor league teams had roster limits that generally guided the total number of players a club would employ, but clubs didn’t have an organization-wide roster limit to my knowledge. That has changed, and MLB may want the right to change it again for what seems a modest monetary benefit.

Reviewing Texas’s 2021 reveals what a lower limit would entail. 221 players took the field for the club’s minor league teams last year. Nine were rehabbing MLB players, another 17 were optioned 40-man members. That leaves 195 players on minor league contracts, to which must be added four absent from injury and seven draft picks who didn’t take the field. So, by my count, the Rangers had 206 players signed to minor league contracts over the course of the 2021 season. The total at any given moment was lower, but I don’t think the Rangers ever had as few as 150. Texas has at least 170 players signed to minor league deals right now. (Odds are my figures aren’t exact, but they should be close enough for discussion.)

The late-2020 overhaul of the minor league system eliminated 40 teams but guaranteed four full-season minor league teams per club through 2030. These four teams have a cumulative roster limit of 116. Rookie-level teams were and are at the discretion of individual clubs. Every club has at least one, some have two (not Texas). They have no roster limit and can stretch into the thirties and beyond. Staffing five teams with a maximum of 150 minor leaguers plus optioned 40-man members isn’t impossible but stretches resources awfully thin. A 150 limit would effectively prohibit multiple rookie-level teams within an organization.

Cutting aggregate roster sizes isn’t going to eliminate the AAA vets needed as MLB reinforcements, some of whom receive low six-figure deals. The eliminated salaries would be at the bottom, those making a few hundred per week.

Also, maintaining minor league rosters is difficult enough as is. Players get hurt and need replacements. Any promotion or demotion can set off a chain of transactions affecting the positions and plate appearances of multiple players. Now add to that the possibility of having to release a capable player in order to sign a draft pick, or putting forth a short-handed team, in service of some weirdly arbitrary roster limit.

Concurrent with this is the ongoing class action lawsuit by a group of minor league players against MLB. MLB’s argument ($ link) is that players are not employees during Spring Training, therefore they should not be paid. MLB’s counsel has reinforced this argument with a consulting study estimating that players receive training and benefits that would cost over $2,000 per week if obtained elsewhere, and that players gain “generally beneficial life skills” while in the minors.
Silver Cloud, Gray Lining

Good news: The lockout does not affect the minor leagues. Games will continue as scheduled, beginning Tuesday April 5 in AAA and Thursday elsewhere. Bad: Texas will still have plenty of players worth seeing, but the lockout and absence of MLB action is not to MiLB’s benefit.

First: Everybody on the 40-man roster is exiled. If you visit a minor league park this season (and you should!), you won’t see Sam Huff, or Sherten Apostel, or Yerry Rodriguez, or Ricky Vanasco, or Ezequiel Duran while the lockout persists. These players already missed 2020, and some were shelved for all or part of 2021 due to injury. They desperately need the opportunity to perform, but they’re banished from MLB facilities just like Max Scherzer, Corey Seager and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Second: Think about Drew Anderson, Jharel Cotton and Spencer Patton. All signed minor league deals with the Rangers before 2021, pitched well in AAA, and finished the season in MLB with 95 respectable innings between them. Patton and Cotton enter 2022 with MLB contracts, while Anderson parlayed his success into a gig in Japan. For their 2022 equivalents, the goal of returning to the Majors may not exist in April. Sometimes, opportunities are created by a combination of two or three superior weeks in the minors and an injury or bad performance at the MLB level. Some of these players could play well enough to warrant a call-up, only to have nowhere to go. That’s depressing.

Minor League Rule 5 Results

The Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft has been, at best, delayed by the lockout, but the minor league portion proceeded as planned in December. Players already on the 40-man roster were off-limits along with up to 38 players in the AAA reserve roster. The Rangers fully stocked the latter roster preceding the draft, leaving them unable to select anyone. They lost four players. Say farewell to:

IF Charles Leblanc (4th overall to Miami) – With a revamped approach, Leblanc more than tripled his home run rate in 2021 despite playing in AAA for the first time. Leblanc also struck out more than ever and posted a career-low .313 OBP and .229 average. He’s best suited to the corners (including LF) but can handle second and spot at short in a pinch. Leblanc is more of a prospect now than two years ago, when he struggled in AA, but even with the improved power I wasn’t shocked that he was exposed to this portion of the draft. Conversely, Baseball America described him as having the “greatest offensive upside” of any hitter in the draft lacking MLB experience.

RHP Abdiel Mendoza (18th overall to Toronto) —  Texas acquired Mendoza and RHP Teodoro Ortega in 2018 for reliever Cory Gearrin. Mendoza spent his Year 23 season in low-A, where he had his moments but struggled against lefties in general and everyone the second time through the order.

RHP Cole Uvila (26th overall to Baltimore) – Early in 2021, I thought Uvila had a shot to make his MLB debut. Like Joe Barlow, Uvila’s control ranges from so-so to frightening, but he strikes out plenty of hitters and manages to avoid too much solid contact the rest of the time. Or at least he did, until promotion to Round Rock, where in his first six outings he allowed 16 hits and walked 11 versus just three strikeouts. Still, writing off Uvila is premature. Recall that Barlow struggled badly in AAA and in successive spring tryouts before reaching the Majors.

RHP Nic Laio (27th overall to Pittsburgh) – His season mimicked Uvila. For a month, he was the system’s strongest reliever, fanning 31 in 18 innings with a 1.47 ERA for low-A Down East. Thereafter, mostly while in high-A, Laio continued to miss bats but was clobbered when he didn’t, permitting 11 homers and a .605 opposing slugging percentage in 38 innings.

Unlike some years, I didn’t have the reserve list before the draft. I did not expect Uvila or Laio to be exposed. That said, they were selected after two Rangers whose exposure didn’t surprise me.