Scott Lucas

Sunday

2020 4th-round lefty Dylan MacLean is back from elbow surgery. MacLean threw a 76-78 breaker that I considered a slurve with more “urve” than “sl,” but the gentleman on the Trackman feed called it a sweeper. It was fairly effective. The fastball was in the 89-91 range, a couple of ticks under where he’d reached in 2022. We’ll see how that develops.

Mitch Bratt dominated the KC opposition, getting both calls and swings in his favor on a variety of pitches. Bratt reached AA last year but was pitching the high-A game, which is no knock on him but in the world of intersquads does mean that several opposing hitters probably hadn’t even reached that level yet. Bratt had some struggles last year in AA but pitched better than his 5.70 ERA. He doesn’t throw especially hard but has better command than most his age. I didn’t get any speed readings Sunday. A return to Frisco is likely.

Righty Adonis Villavicencio signed in January 2022 at the very advanced age of 21, so he’s now a 24-year-old with only 23 innings of full-season ball. With his 95-96 fastball and 88 slider, he’ll have ample opportunity for more. Except for early last summer at the complex (18.1 IP, 3 BB, 21 K), his control has been lacking.

Fellow Venezuelan righty Jose Gonzalez is a few months younger but signed three years prior. He too didn’t have any impact in full-season ball until last year, but his was in the form of 87 innings with just 20 walks and 107 strikeouts. Gonzalez has a broad mix including a low-90s fastball but relies most heavily on a slider that drew several hapless swings on Sunday. I expect he’ll be assigned to high-A Spartanburg.

I saw Joey Danielson. Not the one who received credit for David Davalillo’s three-K inning in the Spring Breakout game, but the actual Joey. Last year’s 17th-rounder spent four years at North Dakota State and allowed 66 runners in 39 innings in 2024. The scant information available indicated a low-90s fastball and low-80s slider. That’s the history, but the Danielson of March 2025 had a fastball that ranged 94-97, a 90 MPH slider, and an 87 splitter. The opposition didn’t trouble him. Although he didn’t appear in the Breakout and was perhaps there only as a just-in-case, he was notably the only pitcher from last year’s draft on the roster.

2024 11th-round lefty Dylan Pence offered a low-90s fastball and 84ish slider, in line with his output as UNC’s closer. In college, Pence riding fastball missed a ton of bats despite so-so speed. He also throws a changeup, but I don’t recall seeing one.

Tuesday

I reluctantly had to choose between my one chance to see Brock Porter (in Peoria) and a better overall mix in Surprise. I hesitated but chose Surprise. Peoria’s squads contained many I’ll soon see in Round Rock, plus the two games there weren’t on adjacent fields, so observing both would be nearly impossible.

The posted AA lineup included Sebastian Walcott, Malcolm Moore, Dylan Dreiling and others worth a serious look, but the at-bats every inning were devoted mostly to Nick Ahmed, Leody Taveras, Josh Smith and Tucker Barnhart. For my purposes, that qualifies as a disappointment. I had the privilege to watch Josh Smith bat from about 30 feet away, and I’m thinking “the list says Cam Cauley and Anthony Gutierrez, where are they?” In any case, Smith homered, and a small gathering of actual fans (not degenerates like me) cheered boisterously.

Among those in the written lineup who did participate on the offensive side, 1B Abi Ortiz homered and doubled, DH Malcolm Moore singled once, and OF Dylan Dreiling grounded out and took a third strike.

The so-called AA staff consisted of a crowd of MLB relievers and aspirants: Shawn Armstrong, Hoby Milner, Dane Dunning, Marc Church, Jesse Chavez, JT Chargois, Joe Barlow, and Codi Heuer. I only saw Church and Heuer at length. The former retired his side almost instantly, generating two strikeouts on a slider and (I think) a change. I wouldn’t say I’ve been the “low man” on Church, but I’ve been more cautious than most because I’ve seen him in person frequently and worried about his fastball, which has dazzled in terms of pure stuff but often betrayed him in location. It improved toward the end of 2024, and I’m hopeful he can spend a large chunk (if not all) of the season in Arlington.

As for Heuer, two of his four “A” appearances before he was sent to minor league camp were wipeouts, but I can see the appeal. Heuer fired a 96-98 fastball with 18”-19” inches of vertical break, an 85-87 slider and what appears to be a splitter at 89-90. I find no record of him throwing one before, but the speed, slo-mo RPM (under 1400) and location (dirt) feel splittery to me. His delivery lacks deception, though; the ball is offered high for all to see throughout. He struck out batters with a fastball and slider. Heuer pitched in the Majors in 2020-2022 but missed the last two seasons with Tommy John and a subsequent fractured elbow.

Righty Ismael Agreda served as the low-A opener and completed his inning with annoying haste. The fastball was around 97. I don’t think I saw a slider. Last March, I remember him blowing his heater past everyone but having next to no ability to land his slider. He’s great fun to watch, but control has been a serious issue. He’s spent the last two seasons at the complex, but as a 21-year-old beginning his fifth pro year, I’d guess he gets a sink-or-swim full-season assignment.

Lefty Mason Molina, acquired from Milwaukee in a waiver-induced trade for Grant Anderson, was exactly as advertised, dealing a 90-92 fastball with ample ride to miss bats plus a slider and change hovering around 83. He proceeded through three innings quickly.

Righty Nick Lockhart pitched a strong low-A inning. My recollection was a low-90s fastball, but on Tuesday he offered a 94-96 sinker, 82-83 slider and I believe a change at 89. Lockhart didn’t pitch in 2024 because of an elbow injury. Now 24, he was Texas’s 11th-round pick in 2019 and has spent most of his career at the A levels.

2023 13th-round righty William Privette throws a fastball that is virtually a cutter: 91-93 with only 1”-3” of horizontal break most of the time. He added a 79-81 slider that isn’t quite sweepy but at least budges sideways more than the fastball. Privette didn’t pitch much or well in 2024, walking eight of 16 batters. I didn’t keep good track of results, but I don’t recall him exhibiting control that problematic on Tuesday.

Lefty Larson Kindreich has a professional K rate of 31% (including 32% at AA Frisco) but has walked or plunked almost one of every five batters. The tolerability level for lack of control has risen in recent years, as a good many pitchers can shrug off those free passes with a combination of strikeouts and low average on balls in play, but that level has not risen to Kindreich’s BB/HBP rate of 19%. I expect he’ll return to Frisco to hone that control.

I wish I had more to say about OF Yeremi Cabrera, OF Paulino Santana, 1B Pablo Guerrero and MIF Curley Martha. They haven’t done anything wrong that I recall, but they just haven’t stood out in the two days I’ve seen them. That’s the nature of baseball. I’ll probably see them tomorrow, too.

3B Rafe Perich, last year’s seventh-rounder out of Lehigh, has been solid, ignoring the wilder entries of young hurlers for walks, lining a single, and I heard about (but didn’t see) a triple. Perich drew eight walks in 33 trips to the plate for low-A Down East late last year. If I showed you a picture of him and said “guess the position,” you’d say third base or right field. He just looks the part.

Corbin

Never thought I’d be writing about Patrick Corbin in 2025, but such are the times. I dug through his game logs, splits and Statcast data looking for a silver lining, and… let’s see. He had a 1.56 ERA in his six wins and 8.03 ERA in 13 losses last year, so if he only pitches to win, he’ll be fine. But seriously, what he offers, probably all he offers, is innings and a reduction in the bullpen’s burden. Bad as he’s been, he’s more likely to finish five frames in April than Leiter or Rocker. He reached five in 25 of 32 starts last year. Much of that was Washington’s perverse resolve to send him out there start after start knowing full well what would transpire, but he will gut through those innings if you let him.  

Greetings from Surprise (and Scottsdale)

Saturday evening, I attended the Spring Breakout game between the Rangers and Giants in Scottsdale. I created a playlist of pitcher videos here. Hitters will be posted down the road.

Unfortunately, I missed most of starter Winston Santos’s outing because of unforeseen traffic on US 60. Santos shredded nine consecutive batters on 38 pitches, of which 27 were strikes and 12 missed bats. Admittedly, the Breakout lineups are a broad range of levels. Santos didn’t face anyone with significant AAA experience to my knowledge, and the Giants’ farm is currently drawing somewhat less than rave reviews at the moment. Still, he doesn’t get to choose his opposition, and he made the pitches. I barely had a chance to scribble down anything, but I did see some 96 MPH heaters and an 87 slider. Santos suffered some growing pains upon promotion to AA Frisco, occasionally arriving without control or ability to keep the ball inside the park. In his playoff outing against Midland, however, he fanned 12 in six innings and allowed two runs (one earned). He has a chance to reach the Majors this season.

Righty Josh Stephan was among the busiest pitchers in last year’s Arizona Fall League, including a start in the championship game. It was at least partly an audition for a 40-man spot. Opinions varied on whether he’d get one. I was lukewarm, to be honest, as I just didn’t think what he showed at that moment would suffice against Major Leaguers. In two scoreless innings following Santos, Stephan didn’t match Santos’s dominance (no shame there) but was nearly as effective. Notably, Stephan’s sinker, typically 90-94 in the AFL, was 94-96 yesterday. That added velocity could be helpful, either as an improved weapon by itself or to tee up his broad mix of secondaries.

Caden Scarborough is a fun project with a 6’5” frame that’s added some mass but could easily take on more. He offered a level 94-96 fastball, an 81-84 slider that sometimes had some two-plane depth and sometime sharply swept, and (I believe) one 85 change that ran outside. A walk, single and double resulted in two runs. The double was a too-high fastball that Giant Adrian Sugastey swatted oppo to the fence. Drafted in 2023’s fifth round and about to turn 20, Scarborough is learning his craft on the fly. His 2024 line wasn’t attractive, and this year’s might not be either, but his stuff and projectability demand patience.

The box score insists 2024 17th-rounder Joey Danielson pitched on Sunday, but unless he lost two inches and 40 pounds over the offseason, that was David Davalillo making quick work of the Giants in the 7th. On 14 pitches, Davallillo fanned the side swinging around a grounded single. He mixed a 93-96 fastball (a little hotter than I remember), an 82-84 slider, and one hard curve. Davalillo signed as a 19-year old in 2022, so he’ll be Rule 5-eligible this winter if unprotected. He reached high-A toward the end of 2024, and I’d guess he’ll return there, probably with an eye toward significant time in AA. (I saw and was impressed by Danielson Monday. More on him later.)

Paul Bonzagni did not have a fun day at all, walking his first opponent on four pitches and allowing four hits before recording a swinging strikeout. He wasn’t quite that bad; the first single was an annoying chopper over 3B Cody Freeman, and a grounder to SS Chandler Pollard with two on that might have been a force at any square with a snap decision ended up being an all-safe because of hesitation. A hard fly just eluded CF Paulino Santana for a double. I’m not making excuses, but there’s an alternate universe in which he escaped without much damage. Bonzagni leaned hard on a 94-98 fastball early (again, a little hotter than I remembered, but the gun was accurate) before adding some 85-87 sliders. The 2023 12th-rounder finished last year at high-A.

The AA season begins in 18 days, AAA in just 11, and ostensible stater Emiliano Teodo is still out there dealing short bursts of high-leverage relief. Teodo was slow by his standards, delivering five fastballs at 96-97, four of them outside, before generating an inning-ending double play on 99.

Lefty Bryan Magdaleno entered the 9th for the semi-save opportunity (preserving a 5-5 tie in a game that would not go to extras). With his 94-96 fastball (plus one at 97) and 82-84 slider, Magdaleno was a little unsteady, allowing a lined single and hitting a batter, but a couple of called third strikes and ordinary grounder would strand the runners. Magdaleno rose from the throng of relief prospects to become a dark-horse 40 candidate last summer (but not that dark, say, auburn). He wasn’t protected or picked in the Rule 5 but enters this season with a chance to reach the 40 and active roster at the same time.

On to hitters. Sebastian Walcott struck out and blooped a single off AAA lefty Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco’s best pitching prospect. He later sharply lined a single to center off 2023 2nd-rounder Joe Whitman, who spent most of 2024 in high-A like Walcott. He would later get picked off. He defended ably.

OF Alejandro Osuna has been busy and successful enough in “A” games this spring that a prospect game almost seems a demotion even though he’s yet to reach AAA. Osuna reached on a single and walk.

2024 top pick Malcolm Moore walked and doubled hard to right. 2nd-rounder Dylan Dreiling swatted an opposite-field liner for a single off Whisenhunt. Barely-18 2B Yolfran Castillo also reached off Whisenhunt with an infield single and later lined a single to left off Whitman. 3B Cam Cauley singled on a 98 MPH fastball from AAA hurler Carson Seymour.

CF Anthony Gutierrez made a highlight-reel catch of a soft fly and grounded to right for a single. 2025 is a critical season for the 20-year-old whose talent hasn’t made much impact in games the last two years.

Substitute CF Paulino Santana lined a 100 MPH pitch from Gerelmi Maldonado past first for a single. He reached second on an error but was caught stealing third for the final out. Tsk tsk. Santana will make his stateside debut after batting .292/.465/.364 in the Dominican Summer League. Santana hit for scant power – not even generating doubles and triples with speed – but more should be forthcoming.

1B Abimelec Ortiz has a .429 average with a double and homer in 14 “A” plate appearances, but Sunday recalled his sour first half of 2024 at Frisco. Although he fanned only once in four hitless at-bats, some of his misses on massive cuts through breaking stuff just didn’t look appetizing.

OF Yeison Morrobel injured his leg running out a grounder and crumpled to the ground beyond first base. He walked off with assistance and wasn’t limping too badly, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of an injury that delays his assignment.  

Elsewhere

St. Louis optioned IF Thomas Saggese to AAA.

The White Sox released non-roster invite Joey Gallo. Gallo was 2-for-20 with a walk and 11 strikeouts. In tracked stadiums, he had a 25% swinging-strike rate and missed on 48% of his swings, high even for him. Today, he announced he would henceforth be known as the pitcher Joey Gallo. That is not a joke.

Influenced by a brief conversation with radio voice Matt Hicks before today’s game, here’s all hitters with at least 2,000 plate appearances and a batting average under .200, ranked by OPS:

Joey Gallo (OPS .775, batting average .194)
Mike Zunino (.676, .199)
Austin Hedges (.559, .186)
Jeff Mathis (.551, .194)
Mike Ryan (.532, .193)
Charlie Bastain (.532, .189)
Tim Keefe (.521, .187)
Warren Spahn (.520, .194)
Bill Bergen (.395, .170)

Gallo is the only non-catcher in the top five. He is (was) also the only good hitter, period, retiring from that capacity with a park-adjusted OPS+ of 106 and WAR of 15.6. To find a higher OPS and sub-.200 average, we must drop to just 534 career PA. Ryan Schimpf of the Padres and Dodgers batted .195/.318/.496 with 35 homers and 178 strikeouts across 2016-2018.

Years ago, I recall saying something to the effect that the ceiling for Gallo could be AL MVP if Mike Trout didn’t exist. That sounds delusional in the harsh light of 2025, but for a while, a sadly short while, he really was that good.

Opening Day!

For intersquads. AA and below begin a 16-game schedule Tuesday, while AAA will play only nine because the regular season starts a week earlier. Don’t read too much into player assignments for these contests. For example, the so-called low-A squad will likely be populated with many who’ll stay in Surprise beyond March and wait for the rookie league to start. Sometimes, though, an aggressive assignment is a tell.

I expect to be there Sunday at the latest.

Bullpen Battle

Within my lists of organizational info, I’ve created a “Bullpen Battle” sheet compiling stats and opinions on every relief contender I mentioned in February. It includes average speeds of all pitch types (minimum 5 thrown).

On Sunday, Texas optioned Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington and Cole Winn. Latz hadn’t appeared in a real game until the day before. Winn couldn’t find the plate (4 BB in 3.2 IP, 47% strike rate), while Pennington could but suffered too much hard contact. Also optioned was righty Winston Santos, an offseason 40 addition who hasn’t pitched above AA.

Emiliano Teodo hasn’t pitched above AA, either, but he’s still in MLB camp. Is he ever. Teodo has entered the 9th and recorded saves his last two outings, striking out five and permitting just one runner on a medium-hard grounder. Admittedly, he hasn’t faced Ohtani/Betts/Freeman, but three of the seven opposing hitters have reached the Majors, and three others have ranked among their respective team’s top-30 prospects this year and/or last. Teodo’s sinker has averaged 98.7 MPH and peaked at 100.8. He’s split almost equally between heaters and sliders while tossing just one changeup. Assuming he’s still on the rotation development path, he’ll need to begin stretching out soon. If he doesn’t, well, we’ve got a story.

Kumar Rocker needed to either outperform Cody Bradford or overwhelm opponents in short bursts to make the Opening Day roster. He’s done neither, and his last outing was an intrasquad rather than an “A” game in front of spectators. Mildly disappointing, I suppose, but not a real concern. Rocker is working on a traditional curve (distinct from the mid-80s version that nearly everyone but Rocker himself dubs a slider.)

Jack Leiter leads every bullpen contender in average velocity on the four-seam fastball (98.1), curve (83), and change (92). Leiter’s new sinker trails Teodo by 1.2 MPH (forgivable). He’s also throwing a reconfigured change that is coming in three tics faster than last year but with less spin and more drop. Both he and Rocker appear bound for Round Rock.

We’ll see what happens in a couple of weeks, but a selection of the eight best relievers irrespective of salary or options has to include Marc Church. As always, the slider is a weapon (swinging strikes on 31% of all pitches and 53% of swings), and he’s made progress on a fastball that has sometimes been too wild and too hittable. Church has even mixed in a handful of low-90s changes. Last year’s number of changeups was zero.

Dane Dunning has been pretty good, and pretty good is probably good enough. Of the six MLB relievers acquired by trade or cash this offseason, only Shawn Armstrong qualifies as a multi-inning type, and even he was limited to ten appearances of at least two innings in 2024. Gerson Garabito is another potential long man, albeit more likely in an up-and-down role.

Luis Curvelo has fanned seven in 5.2 IP and drawn whiffs on 50% of opposing swings against his 95 MPH fastball and 85 slider. Curvelo earned a Major League contract despite being a minor league free agent with no MLB experience. So far, he’s proved worthy of a 40 spot.

As it stands, if non-roster invite Jesse Chavez makes the Opening Day roster, it will be on reputation, not this spring’s performance.

Other Notes

Caveat: small samples.

Against lefties, OF Evan Carter is 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. In the six plate appearances for which we have data, 73% of his swings have drawn air, and two-thirds of his takes have been called strikes (typical is about 30%). Again, that’s just a few trips to the plate, but it’s a legitimate concern. Carter is hitting .231/.286/.385 with a two strikeouts in 14 PA versus righties. His hard-hit rate is 18%.

Meanwhile, Kevin Pillar isn’t hitting lefties either (1-for-6) but is .333/.381/.389 overall and acting as if his retirement was premature. Sam Haggerty has also hit well but hasn’t played quite as often this spring and has five career MLB starts in CF compared to Pillar’s 821. Leody Taveras’s “my OBP is what it is so might as well swing for the fences” approach has resulted in a team-leading three homers.

70% of pitches to Ezequiel Duran have been outside the zone (the team average is 50%). He’s largely ignored those pitches and leads the team with four walks, but the contact has been mild (.118/.286/.176).

Good news: OF/1B Dustin Harris scorched a single at 111.0 MPH, 3.6 higher than any of 555 contacted fair balls in two years at AAA (and some coffee in MLB). He hit another 106.2, just 0.2 shy of his ’23-’24 peak. Not as good: His hard-hit rate (31%), median and 90th-percentile exit velos still lag behind the team averages.

1B/2B/DH Justin Foscue is not having a fun spring, hitting .200/.250/.333 with five strikeouts in 16 trips to the plate. Under the hood are some even ickier stats, including a 31% swinging strike overall and 45% when he swings. Along with a keen batting eye, his success in the minors has been built on a high contract rate. The 26-year-old has no path to the Rangers, absent injuries, so he’s largely performing for other organizations. The potential silver linings are a reasonable 44% hard-hit rate and a comparison to last spring, when he batted .250/.316/.396 with two walks and 14 strikeouts (getting hit three times accounts for 55 points of OBP). Maybe he’s just not a March guy.

OF Alejandro Osuna is hitting .435/.481/.652 and on several occasions has raised the decibel level of the radio voices with some fine defense. He isn’t going to make the Opening Day roster but is positioning himself for consideration down the road. The underlying statcast data is encouraging.

IF Sebastian Walcott’s miss rate is half the team average, he’s laying off out-of-zone pitches and connecting hard when he swings. I’m excited.

2B Marcus Semien is hitting .172/.226/.345 with the lowest 90th-percentile exit velocity (97.7) of any Ranger with at least six balls in play. I’m worri—NO NO NO! See, this is the kind of potholed dead-end road I find myself on when messing with tiny data sets.

Transactions

Texas released OF Daniel Mateo. Now 23, Mateo displayed an intriguing mix of speed and power at the lower levels, hitting .272/.318/.412 with 43 steals and 12 homers in 2022 and .259/.275/.407 with 30 steals and ten homers in 2023. Last year in AA Frisco wasn’t nearly as successful, and he was on track to become a free agent after this season.

Elsewhere

San Francisco catcher Sam Huff is batting .313/.522/.613. In 23 trips to the plate, he has 26% walk rate, a 39% strikeout rate and .667 average on balls in play. Welcome to the Cactus League. He hasn’t played in many parks with public data, and I wouldn’t dream of analyzing those crazy top-line stats, but I do know that putative second catcher Tom Murphy is hurt (again), so the optionless Huff would appear to have a solid shot at an Opening Day position. The Giants claimed Huff off waivers a while back.

Reliever Grant Anderson (Milwaukee) was knocked around and optioned to AAA Nashville. Owen White (Reds, then Yankees, now White Sox) threw a scoreless inning in his first appearance yesterday.

The Marlins optioned IF Max Acosta to AAA Jacksonville. Early March assignments aren’t carved in stone, but should he stay put, he’ll be making his debut at that level. Acosta was part of the Jake Burger trade.  IF Echedry Vargas is probably headed for high-A Beloit.

LHP Andrew Chafin signed a minor deal with Detroit. He’ll make $2.5 million plus up to $1.5 in incentives if he sticks, but it’s quite the fall from the $6.5 million club option Texas declined last fall. Incidentally, Detroit optioned offseason 40-man additions Chase Lee and Tyler Owens to AAA Toledo. Both were acquired for Chafin last summer.

San Diego signed lefty Wes Benjamin to a minor deal. Benjamin had spent the last three seasons in Korea. The Texas 2014 5th-rounder pitched 45 innings for the Rangers across 2020-2021.

The Mets signed RHP Jose Urena to a minor deal, and St. Louis signed catcher Yohel Pozo to a minor deal. Pozo had joined Atlanta early in the offseason but was soon released.

About two weeks ago I realized Willie Calhoun was out of contract. “He’d already have a deal were he headed to Japan or Korea. Maybe Mexico,” I thought. Last Tuesday, Calhoun signed with Quintana Roo. The LMB has become a popular destination for players who’ve aged out of MLB (like 42-year-old Robinson Cano) or can’t get signed as AAA depth.

Rosario Out

Per local reports, RHP Alejandro Rosario has an elbow injury that will likely require season-ending surgery. Rosario entered the season as baseball’s #39 prospect per FanGraphs, #50 per MLB.com, #64 per The Athletic, and #72 per baseball Prospectus.

I saw the word “acute” in reference to his injury, but some worrisome events preceded this news. Rosario was promoted to AA Frisco in early September but was shut down with fatigue before making an appearance. He was also absent from the invite list to Major League camp. Not that the Rangers were obliged, but I was expecting him on it.

Jack Leiter’s Sinking Outlook

Hey, I can do clickbait headlines, too. In 2024, Leiter threw 1,028 four-seam fastballs and zero sinkers. In his Saturday debut: 13 four-seamers, seven sinkers. The latter were originally classified as fours but later changed, and yes, they’re really sinkers, averaging about a tick lower in velocity with less vertical break and 12”-17” of horizontal break. They ran middle-to-high and mostly within the zone.

His regular fastball averaged 98.8 and topped at 99.9. Locationally, it had the spray that dampens its effectiveness, either too high to offer at or mid-mid. Yes, its late February and his first outing, but I’m noting for future reference. Leiter’s fastball ranks highly in Stuff models but had a league-worst value of -16 runs in 2024, even though he threw only 35 innings. Not today but before long, the only meaningful stats will be the results.

Another Signing

Texas signed 36-year-old Kevin Pillar to a minor league deal. Despite intending to retire after last season, he’s aged pretty well and wouldn’t be the worst guy to have around. He can still defend, run, and get a hold of an occasional pitch. He’s never walked much, and the loss of 40 points of batting average from his prime undercuts his utility. Since 2022, he has a power-oriented, OBP-averse line against lefties (.250/.261/.472) and not much of anything against righties (.173/.250/.292).
 
Your New Spring Training Overlord

Through Sunday, MLB’s spring leader in homers and slugging percentage (min. 5 plate appearances) is none other than OF Trevor Hauver, who has a double and two homers in five trips to the plate. Through August 11 last season, Hauver was hitting .195/.305/.305 with a 33% strikeout rate, frankly the kind of performance that might get a 25-year-old released. In his final 29 games, Hauver reached safely in 27 and batted .374/.485/.701 with 17 doubles, six homers and a 22% strikeout rate. I didn’t delve more than superficially into the data at the time, but now I have. Here’s some info before and after August 11:

Hard-hit rate: 30% before, 48% after (PCL average 35%)
Median exit velo: 87.6 before, 94.2 after (89.8)
90th-percentile exit velo: 103.0 before, 104.2 after (103.1)
Average on 95+ exit velo: .500 before, .615 after (.545)
Slugging on 95+ exit velo: .955 before, 1.300 after (1.091)

Hauver didn’t improve his top-end velo so much as pull his mid-range from below-average to outstanding. Particularly relevant was his improvement against fastballs:

Whiff rate: 25% before, 10% (!) after (PCL average 22%)
Avg./Slugging on contact: .273/.409 before, .357/.607 after (.369/.621)
Line on PAs ending with fastball: .150/.313/.225 before, 303/.452/.515 after (.280/.395/.471)

Hauver is 26, doesn’t play center and isn’t hailed for his defensive prowess, so you’d might as well treat him like a first baseman in terms of how he’ll need to hit to get noticed. Also, elements of last year’s hot streak are unsustainable, like a .512 average on contact including a .372 average on exit velocities under 95. There’s almost nothing he could do to make the Opening Day roster. (I guess if he’s still slugging 2.000 a month from now, we can revisit.) Still, if can maintain a good portion of last year’s late improvement, he’s going to get noticed.

Elsewhere

OF Travis Jankowski signed a minor deal with the Cubs.

Reunions

RHP Luke Jackson (33 on Opening Day)
I saw Jackson’s sixth professional outing in person at Hickory, a five-inning, one-run, ten-strikeout performance against Yankees-affiliated Charleston. He was 19. I was not 19 and am now old enough to consider his current age of 33 young. To be honest, as he approached the Majors, he didn’t look like a great bet to reach eight years of service, but he’s achieved them with a mix of perseverance, occasional dominance, injuries, and some choppy seasons. When in form, his money pitch is a slider, which he didn’t throw as a Ranger, although his curve had enough tilt/bend to pass for one. Fittingly, his slider could pass for a (very hard) curve, as it doesn’t break much laterally but has an extra six to eight inches of drop versus the league average.

RHP Joe Barlow (29)
Barlow hasn’t pitched in the Majors since being designated for assignment and lost to Kansas City in August 2023. The Royals immediately optioned him to AAA Omaha and later snuck him through waivers. Barlow signed a minor deal with the White Sox last winter but spent much of the season on the shelf and was released from AAA Charlotte last July. Peak, healthy Barlow is a credible MLB reliever, if not a competitor for his former closing role. His likelihood of making the Opening Day roster is awfully slim, but regaining past form and a place near the front of the AAA depth line isn’t out of the question.

Trivia: Barlow is the only pitcher in MLB history with at least 20 saves and fewer than 80 career innings.

A Crowd

So, you’d like a job pitching in relief for the Texas Rangers. Take a number.

Texas has acquired six experienced free-agent relievers this offseason: Shawn Armstrong, Robert Garcia, Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb. Let’s assume all make the Opening Day active roster*, leaving only two open bullpen spots. Who are the contenders (besides you, of course)?

Assuming a rotation front-four of deGrom/Eovaldi/Mahle/Gray, Cody Bradford and Kumar Rocker are fighting for the final starting spot. Bradford is more likely to slide into a relief role if not in the rotation, while Rocker would probably head to Round Rock to continue in a starting role.

Texas has eight other relievers on the 40 with MLB experience: Marc Church, Dane Dunning, Gerson Garabito, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Walter Pennington, Daniel Robert and Cole Winn. All have options. Dunning finished 2024 in a ditch but has the lengthiest resume. I’d think Leiter is destined for Round Rock’s rotation unless his spring performance absolutely compels a big-league bullpen role. Among the others, Church has the most upside, and I’m sure the Rangers would love him to stake a claim immediately, as he nearly did last March. The remaining five fall into a different category, probably jockeying for first dibs on up-and-down roles and the chance to prove long-term inclusion.

Texas also has six in camp on minor deals who pitched in the Majors in 2024: Caleb Boushley, David Buchanan, Jesse Chavez, JT Chargois, Matt Festa and Adrian Houser.  The ageless Chavez enters as the favorite among this group, although Chargois also pitched well last year. As long as we’re here, we’d might as well toss in Barlow, ex-Cub Codi Heuer (hurt last year), and contenders already in the system like Robby Ahlstrom, Dane Acker and Skylar Hales.

Oh, Texas also has Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo on the 40. Both are nominal starters with no experience above AA, but with strong springs they could make some noise. Finally, the Rangers signed free-agent reliever Luis Curvelo straight to the 40, but he too has yet to reach AAA.  

So, 25 players (plus you) competing for two spots. That’s… that’s a lot. Every year, the Rangers (and everyone else) sign more players than they can possibly use, and every year I try to figure out who’ll be cut and who’ll be assigned where. This year, the task of assigning those last two bullpen spots and the 15-16 pitching spots in both AAA and AA will be as tough as any I can recall. Sure, some will hang around on the Injured List, but keep in mind that once the season starts, the Rangers will be limited to 165 domestic minor leaguers, and players on the ordinary (not 60-day or full-season) IL do count against that total.

Incidentally, “real” games commenced yesterday. In a 5-2 loss to the Royals, Dunning fanned two and allowed a hit in two scoreless innings. Garabito (1 H, 1 BB) and Ahlstrom (1 H, 1 SO) provided a scoreless single frames.

* Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball: “I’m not convinced both Webb and Armstrong make the roster.” Fair enough, but let’s just assume so for now, plus one extra spot doesn’t change the discussion that much.

Fifty

Adolis Garcia wants to hit fifty homers. Super. On Bluesky, I offered: “30 homers, a .320 OBP, and don’t run in on semi-sharp flies that end up one-hopping the wall. That’s about 3.5 wins. That’s the goal.”

On further review, that production doesn’t reach 3.5 wins above replacement, not without, say, 2023-level fielding or unforeseen improvement in contact. With 600 plate appearances, a .250/.320/.481 line, 30 homers, and league-average baserunning and fielding, he’ll land at around 2.8 WAR* (assuming run production inputs don’t change substantially from last year). That’s lower than what I suggested before doing the math but still a huge improvement over his roughly replacement-level 2024. I’d be thrilled.

For 3.5 WAR, he’d need an extra five homers (raising his slugging percentage to .509. approximating his previous best) plus a slightly above-average combo of running and fielding. Not likely, but not an absurd projection. If Garcia hits 50 homers and matches prior bests in average, doubles, walks, fielding and running, he’ll reach 6.7 WAR. Absurd, but a fun daydream.

If you peruse his statcast data, you can talk yourself into almost any outcome for 2025 (except maybe 6.7 WAR). His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barreling were still strong last year. He underperformed his expected production. His fielding outs above average fell from the 82nd percentile in 2023 to 1st (meaning last); surely a healthier knee will remedy that. Conversely, some players simply age poorly, and Garcia might be among them. At the least, it’s not unreasonable to discount his outlying 2023 (best OBP by 28 points, best slugging by 52) in any 2025 projection.

I am hopeful that Garcia can be at least good enough not to worry about. Something akin to 2022 at the plate plus adequate running and fielding would be worth a shade under two wins.

* I said 2.6 on Bluesky, but I’ve refined the calculations.

Elsewhere

The White Sox claimed RHP Owen White off waivers from the Yankees. In the span of three weeks, White’s Spring Training destination changed from Arizona to Florida to Arizona.

Ex-Rangers righty Mason Englert, designated for assignment by Detroit, was traded to Tampa Bay for high-A lefty Drew Sommers.

RHP Andrew Heaney signed a one year, $5 million contract with the Pirates. Pittsburgh also released RHP Yerry Rodriguez and designated RHP Brett de Geus for assignment. Rodriguez had signed early in the offseason.

Pitchers and catchers report today. The first official spring training game is in nine (!) days.

Speaking of pitchers, by my count, Texas has 58 healthy ones with experience at AA or higher, and the combined MLB/AAA/AA active rosters can only hold 45, give or take. The number fighting for these spots grows further with potential promotions from the lower minors, although at this point I’m not expecting many, as the Rangers already bumped several from Hickory to Frisco late last season.

I didn’t want a 4,000-word report last month, so I postponed reporting on all the recent minor league additions. Let’s get caught up. Given the 33-game spring schedule, I expect you’ll see many of these names in the boxes.

Incoming

RHP Tim Brennan (Age 28 on Opening Day)
Brennan re-signed after becoming a free agent. Texas’s 2018 seventh-rounder fell to an elbow injury in late 2022, and last season’s return was calamitous, to be frank (6.54 ERA, 83 baserunners in 42.2 AAA innings). His once-pinpoint control disappeared, and he isn’t the type who can whiff his way out of tense situations. With better control this spring, he should ably handle AA hitters if placed there or get another shot at AAA.  

RHP David Buchanan (35)
Drafted in 2009’s sixth round, Buchanan debuted strongly in the Majors in 2014, but by 2017 he’d begun the first of seven seasons in Japan or Korea. He returned to the US in 2024 and made one more MLB appearance. At no point in his career has he struck out many batters, so I’d expect an inning-eating AAA role.

RHP JT Chargois (34)
Chargois has bounced around six organizations plus Japan and was non-tendered in November despite solid if not flashy numbers produced by a 95 MPH sinker and mid-80s slider. The problem is multiple trips to the injured list the past three seasons including two terms on the 60-day IL. He’s a good signing and decent bet for another 30-40 MLB innings in Texas or elsewhere.  

RHP Jesse Chavez (41)
Did you know that Chavez relieved Bob Gibson in Game 1 of the 1964 World Series, the only postseason start of Gibson’s nine that didn’t result in a complete game? Okay, not quite true, but Rickey Henderson genuinely was still active when Chavez originally signed with Texas. That said, he’s as likely as anyone on this list to find himself in Arlington during 2025.

RHP Matt Festa (32)
DFA’ed and traded to the Cubs for cash last month, Festa was soon designated again, took free agency once unclaimed, and re-signed with the Rangers. Previously, I’d mentioned him as “a handy guy to stash in AAA if he hadn’t run out of options.” Now, Texas can stash away, although that absence of options precludes the up-and-down role for which he’s probably best suited.

RHP Peyton Gray (29)
A former Rockie, Royal and Red, the undrafted and oft-injured Gray has thrown only 155 summer innings in seven seasons, none in affiliated ball since 2021. Still, he’s pitched exceptionally well in winter ball lately, so at the least he’ll be worth a peek if you’re wandering the back fields next month.

RHP Nolan Hoffman (27)
A reliever since his time at TAMU, the now-27-year-old spent his first full season in AAA in 2024.  At Norfolk, he bumped his strikeout rate to 28% compared to the 22% of 2021-2023, but his walk rate nearly doubled. Hoffman deals a low-slot sinker and slider. Incidentally, Hoffman was the first pick in the 2021 minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, 28 selections before Robert Garcia.

RHP Hanser Lara (28)
He’s a veteran of sorts, having originally signed with KC nearly ten years ago but without a single appearance after 2018. In April of that year, he threw three scoreless innings against Hickory. An area scout filed a glowing report that night, and seven years later, Lara’s a Ranger. I’m sure that’s what transpired.

RHP Daniel Missaki (28)
Born in Japan. Brazil in the 2013 World Baseball Classic and a contract with Seattle. Milwaukee via trade in 2015. Two Tommy John surgeries. Three years of indy and farm ball back in Japan. A summer in Venezuelan. Last summer in Mexico and with the Cubs. Now a Ranger.

RHP Travis MacGregor (27)
Still awaiting the call, the Pittsburgh 2016 2nd-rounder impressed in the unfriendly confines of Salt Lake last year, posting a 3.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .248/.325/.367 line in long relief. He threw a four-seamer and sinker averaging around 94, an 88 cutter and 83 sweepy slider.

RHP Patrick Murphy (29)
In 2024, Murphy split time between the major and minor versions of Nippon Ham, actually pitching better at the higher level. Murphy offered a mid-90s fastball and low-80s curve while stateside during parts of 2020-2022.

C Tucker Barnhart (34)
Meet your third catcher. 34 next week, Barnhart has spent the last 11 years in the Majors, a primary backstop for eight. He hit well enough (for a catcher) much of that time but has posted a .208/.286/.255 line the past three seasons.

C Chad Wallach (33)
Wallach spent most of the past three seasons with the Angels, mostly in AAA. With the departures of Sam Huff and Matt Whatley, Texas didn’t have any AAA-ready catchers (excepting perhaps Cooper Johnson, who’s yet to play at that level but had a nice season at Frisco).

C Brandon Martorano (27)
An extra catcher for Frisco and/or Round Rock. Martorano spent several years in the San Francisco system and finished 2024 at indy Gastonia.

IF Nick Ahmed (35)
Ahmed has never posted a 100 OPS+ in 11 MLB seasons and sports a line of .221/.271/.327 over the past four years. So… why? Because even at 35 he provides a worthy up-the-middle glove. Still, for the first time in his career, finding a spot on an MLB roster is likely to require some time-biding in AAA, whether at Round Rock or elsewhere.

IF Jax Biggers (27)
Sooie. The 2018 eight-rounder from Arkansas rejoined the Rangers after becoming a free agent. Biggers doesn’t hit especially hard but is finely attuned to the robot-assisted strike zone of AAA, drawing a walk nearly one of every six times at the plate and reaching at a .390 clip in Round Rock.

IF Alex De Goti (30)
The former Astro split between Frisco and Round Rock last year.

IF Alan Trejo (28)
Trejo hit the cover off the ball in Albuquerque but struggled badly in Colorado (.228/.276/.334 across four seasons). Scaling high-altitude AAA stats to MLB remains impossible. He’s isn’t playing much shortstop nowadays, so he’d need several breaks to get a ticket to Arlington, especially with the signing of Ahmed.

OF Sam Haggerty (30)
Haggerty missed most of 2024 with an Achilles injury and was non-tendered by Seattle. Like Ahmed, he’ll need some fortune to return to MLB, although with his versatility he’s got a shot at a bench role. He’s spent a majority of his 202 MLB games in left but (especially in AAA) can play anywhere but catcher.

OF Cody Thomas (30)
The former OU QB was drafted by the Dodgers in 2016’s 13th round and reached the Majors briefly in 2022-2023, batting .250/.308/333 in 29 games with the Athletics. Thomas ventured to Japan last year but couldn’t gain a foothold, instead spending most of the season at Orix’s farm club. His AAA stats are inflated by Las Vegas, but he should offer some power for Round Rock and/or Frisco.

In Charge

Changes to the minor league coaching/development system were modest. All four full-season managers return: Doug Davis in AAA Round Rock, Carlos Cardoza in AA Frisco, Chad Comer in high-A Hub City, and Carlos Maldonado in low-A Hickory. Nick Janssen has replaced Guilder Rodriguez as the complex-league manager, with Rodriguez shifting to a bench role. At the full-season levels, the only coach new to the organization is AA bullpen coach Carson Phillips.

Jon Goebel, last year’s AA pitching coach, has graduated to AAA plus hold the title of upper-minors pitching coordinator. Last year’s AAA pitching coach, Dave Borkowski, remains in Round Rock as bullpen coach and would (I expect) simply be the pitching coach if/when Goebel’s duties require time away from the Express. Replacing Goebel in Frisco is Jose Jaimes, last year’s rookie-level pitching coach. Former pitching coordinator Jordan Tiegs is now the Texas bullpen coach.

Elsewhere

The Yankees claimed RHP Owen White off waivers from Cincinnati and re-designated him five days later. His status is pending. I suspect plenty of clubs would like an opportunity to right White’s ship but not at the expense of a 40 spot, even though he has an option.

The Rays designated IF Oslevis Basabe for assignment and traded him to San Francisco for cash. Barely four years after the Nathaniel Lowe trade, neither Texas nor Tampa has anyone from that swap in its organization.

Detroit designated RHP Mason Englert for assignment. After being swiped from the Rangers in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, Engert managed (barely) to stick the entire season in the Majors, posting a 5.46 ERA in 56 innings with a good walk rate and surfeit of homers. His 2024 yielded similar results, but he spent much of the season in the minors.  

The Marlins claimed RHP Ronny Henriquez off waivers from Minnesota. Henriquez had been outrighted and became a free agent after 2023 but re-signed with Twins and quickly regained an up-and-down relief role. Entering 2025, he’s out of options.

RHP Neftali Feliz signed a minor deal with Seattle. I thought I’d mentioned him previously, as news of his supposedly imminent signing broke well before by previous report, but I must have decided to wait until the move was official. Feliz last pitched in the US in 2021 and spent the last three seasons in Mexico. I did see a story about him with the clickbait headline “Former Rangers Star Signs Surprise New Deal That’ll Crush Texas Fans,” and… can we not, please? I’m not even dented, much less crushed, and honestly would be fine if he made the M’s roster. I would draw the line at him pitching well against the Rangers, however.

Other minor deals for players in the system last year: RHP Jonathan Hernandez (TAM), catcher Matt Whately (TOR), IF Jose Barrero (STL).

And deals for those from the more distant past: LHP Kolby Allard (CLE), RHP Alex Speas (MIN).

Round Rock Express Tickets

An acquaintance of mine runs an eight-way split of four excellent season tickets in the fourth row one section to the right of home plate. He is looking for one or more parties to join the group. If you’re interested, email me and I’ll give you his contact information.

Organization Info

A reminder than I keep lists of the 40-man roster, all stateside squad rosters, players who’ve left the organization, Rule 5 qualifications, and more here. I try to maintain them steadily but errors and omission occur, so feel free to point them out.

Social Media

I’ve posted less this winter than any in recent memory, and almost exclusively on Bluesky. For those who follow, I expect I’ll ramp up soon. As to whether I’ll double-post at X/Twitter and Bluesky, I haven’t decided. Regardless, this year I plan to emphasize getting worthwhile info into reports and not just social media, a task I’ve occasionally handled poorly.

Next

Top-100 lists, organization rankings, early thoughts.

I hope this email finds you well.

Since the week before Christmas, I’ve been out of town more often than not and completely hamstrung by real-life work, so I’ve been writing intermittently and saving a report for when I had time to edit an entire piece. (I didn’t actually have time for this but needed a break.)

So, let’s get caught up on the last five weeks.  

Incoming

DH/OF Joc Pederson (Age 32 on Opening Day)
The professional righty-killer and fashion icon brings his bat to Texas for anywhere from one to three seasons. Since 2022, he’s batted .267/.367/.503 against righties. He’s also started a total of only 13 games against lefties and didn’t take the field at all in 2024, although he’s likely to play at least a little outfield in 2025. Pederson does at least reach base against lefties (.218/.351/.347 the last three years), but the absence of defensive starts is justified. He’s limited, sure, but what he’s good at is good indeed, and recall that Texas’s designated hitters batted .040 with three homers last year (I’m going from memory).

D magazine’s Zach Crizer has a piece about him.

LHP Robert Garcia (28)
Quite the story. Drafted by Kansas City in 2017’s 15^th round (same as Ricky Vanasco), Garcia wasn’t even protected on an AAA roster, much less the 40, after five seasons. He had retired (absent the paperwork) when Miami claimed him deep within the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. He decided to continue pitching and remarkably made his MLB debut 20 months later. The Marlins would soon designate him for assignment during a brief period when they were actually trying, but the Nationals claimed him, and he’s been fairly successful ever since, leading to his trade for a productive 1B in the form of Nathaniel Lowe.

I say “fairly” successful because 2024 was a combination of amazing peripherals but ordinary run suppression. He posted a 7% BB/HBP rate, a reasonable four homers in 59.2 innings, and an opposing line of .237/.288/.323. His rates on hard hits, grounders and chases were exceptional. Somehow, he ended up with a 4.22 ERA and 5.13 RA. What gives? It comes down to what could be plausibly called luck, as Garcia was terrific with the bases empty (.194/.248/.226) but poor once anyone reached base (.287/.333/.435). The reasonable expectation is that those splits should converge some, reducing the number of runners crossing the plate.

Garcia delivers a low-slot mid-90s fastball notable more for horizontal movement than rise, a slider, and what was a highly effective changeup in 2024. He’s under team control through 2029.

RHP Chris Martin (38) / LHP Hoby Milner (34) / RHP Shawn Armstrong (34)
After last season, Texas’s MLB-experienced bullpen arms consisted of Grant Anderson, Marc Church, Matt Festa, Gerson Garabito, Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington, Daniel Robert, an injured Josh Sborz, Owen White, and an injured Cole Winn, to which you could add Dane Dunning and maybe a couple of others who’ve typically started but might not find room in the 2025 rotation. Some could be credible performers this season, but clearly the bullpen renovation project was large enough to require multiple city permits and a general contractor.

Martin resurrected his MLB career as a Ranger in 2018 and will likely finish it as one, as he’s said 2025 is almost certainly his final season. He’ll turn 39 next season, and small indicators of decline abound, but nothing that suggests he can’t perform well.

LHP Mason Molina (21)
Molina is honestly a better return for the DFA’ed Grant Anderson than I expected, not in the team’s top 30 but worthy of an honest recap in my daily reports. Milwaukee grabbed the Texas Tech and Arkansas alum in last year’s seventh round. To date, Molina has relied heavily on a fastball that only runs around 90 but rises through bats. He adds an appealing traditional change and a couple of breakers that lag behind. He finished the season with a playoff appearance for high-A Wisconsin. That level seems an appropriate beginning to his 2025.

Outgoing (Trade)

1B Nathaniel Lowe
If you reviewed everything I’ve written about Lowe, you’d wonder what I had against him. More than once, I compared him to Mitch Moreland, who deservedly occupies a revered place in Rangers history but was often just good enough to avoid being the offense’s most pressing problem. Whenever I’d speculate about the likelihood of Lowe being traded or even non-tendered as his salary increased, he’d enter a hot stretch and make me look foolish (which is fine). Lowe wasn’t a traditional basher, at least not for extended periods, but he provided on-base production for an offense that at times was desperately lacking. He was, at long last, the average-to-plus 1B Texas had sought since the trade of Mark Teixeira in 2007.

Among the top 30 players in plate appearances who spent at least 50% of their time at 1B during 2021-2024, Lowe ranked eighth in bWAR with 10.8, fifth in OBP (.359), third in walks (292), and 11^th in homers (78).

Outgoing (DFA)

RHP Owen White
Toward the end of 2022, White recovered from forearm and neck trouble just in time to manhandle AA opposition in two postseason relief appearances. He was an unquestioned 40 addition and near-universally-regarded top-100 prospect. The next spring, after another neck issue, he didn’t look the same, and never has. Sad to say, for most of the past two seasons, he appeared unable to fill an up-and-down role, much less join a rotation. While he would make his MLB debut in June 2023, those circumstances leaned more toward immediate parent-club need than merit, as I mentioned at the time. In 2024, a bevy of minor league signings would graduate to the Majors while he stayed behind in Round Rock.

Switching to relief later in the season, White boosted his strikeout rate while suffering in other respects. The advanced stats shuffled around but didn’t indicate meaningful, positive change. His slider remained the most effective pitch, but he didn’t look the type to just run a four-seamer/slider combo past hitters. Indeed, White’s repertoire had ballooned to six pitches in Round Rock, and even in relief he offered the full set. Should he get back on track, that diversity could serve him well.

White was traded to Cincinnati for cash. He remains on the 40-man roster and has an option in 2025.

C Sam Huff
Had I been able to write in a timelier fashion, I would have mentioned Huff surprisingly keeping his 40 spot at White’s expense. Instead, he quickly suffered the same fate following the addition of Shawn Armstrong. I’ve covered Huff’s situation for a while. His basic and under-the-hood stats declined markedly during the 2024 season; from June onward, he batted .233/.279/.377 with six homers in 73 games. On his fourth and final option, he clearly had not put himself in a position to claim the #2 catcher role next spring. Plainly put, the likelihood of him being on the 40 by the end of March was virtually zero.

Catchers take inordinate patience, and Huff may yet find a way into an MLB role. Whatever happens, the Rangers have shown the requisite patience and can’t be blamed if he does succeed elsewhere. Huff joined the organization nearly nine years ago and turns 27 in January. Huff was claimed by the Giants, who already had three catchers on the roster but designated backstop Blake Sabol soon after. Another DFA seems most likely, but for the moment he’s hanging on.

RHP Grant Anderson
I’ve told this story before: Back in March 2019, I settled in to grab footage of several Texas hitting prospects in an intersquad against the M’s, only to see some teal-jerseyed side-armer toy with them for sport. I was impressed. So were the Rangers, who would acquire him two weeks later for Connor Sadzeck. That side-armer would be McNeese St. alum Grant Anderson, drafted in 2018’s 21^st round.

Back to the present: Anderson still has an option. Given that the Brewers traded a recent pick who signed for slot (the aforementioned Molina) and DFA’ed someone else (former 1^st-rounder Tyler Jay) to get him, I’d guess they don’t intend a quick attempt to sneak him through waivers. Incidentally, Grant’s twin brother Aidan re-signed with the Rangers several weeks ago.

RHP Matt Festa
Festa’s peripherals outshone his 4.37 ERA, and he might have been a handy guy to stash in AAA if he hadn’t run out of options. Texas traded him to the Cubs for cash. So, for now, all four players Texas designated for assignment in the past few weeks remain on a 40-man roster. 

Internationals

Wednesday commenced signing day for international free agents. At least monetarily, Texas made a modest splash in the free-agent pool compared to many previous years. Dominican OF/IF Elorky Rodriguez is the priciest signing at $1.1 million, followed by 3B Jhon Simon of the DR at $500,000. MIF Hansel (son of Hanley) Ramirez signed, joining David Ortiz Jr. (who signed last August) and Pablo Guerrero as progeny of former baseball greats in the organization.

Elsewhere

OF Bubba Thompson has walked off the diamond and onto the University of South Alabama’s football squad. In 2017, Thompson was a high school QB of some regard, although not enough to sway him from first-round money. With the Rangers, Thompson’s improvement with the bat in 2021-2022 portended a fourth-outfielder role, but it didn’t translate to the Majors. After enduring five waiver claims in the span of six months, he finally passed through unclaimed and weirdly spent much of 2024 at AA Chattanooga, where he still suffered at the plate. Incidentally, USA’s head coach is Texas-Ex Major Applewhite.

Major deals: reliever Jose Leclerc (Athletics)

Minor deals: C Jorge Alfaro (Brewers), IF Yonny Hernandez (Mets), reliever CD Pelham (Athletics)

Rest in Peace

Rico Carty
Mike Cubbage
Bud Harrelson
Odell Jones
Hector Ortiz
Lenny Randle
Jim Umbarger

Up Next

I’ll circle back with Texas’s minor league signings, staffing, and five strategies for getting better responses to your marketing emails. Yours faithfully, Scott.

Burger

Late last night, the Rangers acquired 28-year-old 1B/3B Jake Burger from the Marlins for IF Echedry Vargas, IF Max Acosta and LHP Brayan Mendoza. Burger is heroic when he makes contact, clubbing 63 homers and slugging .488 the past two seasons. He hits the ball in the air, hard. He destroys fastballs.

Most else about his game is neutral or worse, chipping at the value created by that contact. He hits for an acceptable average but doesn’t walk much. His career strikeout rate is a lofty 28%. Burger hardly ever steals but grades out surprisingly well in terms of sprint speed and advanced baserunning stats. Burger isn’t a good defender and in 2024, for the first time, spent more days at first or DH than at third. That said, he provides insurance for Josh Jung, who’s been limited to 168 games the last two seasons.

Burger has averaged between 1.5 and 1.8 WAR per season the last two years, depending on source. “Average regular” is a reasonable if perhaps slightly generous description. Last year, Texas’s crowded caravan of DHs (18 of them, none with more than 25 games) batted a lowly .204/.263/.322, so Burger certainly represents a significant upgrade even without much defensive value. He was five days shy of qualifying for Super 2 arbitration status. He’ll make close to the minimum in 2025 and can become a free agent after 2028.

Barring further moves (and I’m expecting further moves), Burger’s acquisition would appear to reduce the upside in Ezequiel Duran’s possible playing time, although Duran can man the outfield. Also, whatever small chance 2020 first-rounder Justin Foscue had of making the club out of spring training has dwindled to nothing. Although surely better than his .048/.091/.071 line in 15 MLB games, Foscue hasn’t had a landing spot in Arlington for some time and at this point will really have to force the issue in AAA.

I kind of fell in love with Vargas last March in Surprise. After watching him repeatedly bruise the ball every which way, I couldn’t fathom that he fanned in 24% of his rookie-level plate appearance, and he rewarded me with a 21% rate at low-A in 2024. As a 19-year-old in a tough park and league for batters, he hit .276/.321/.454 including a stellar .310/.352/.508 on the road. On the downside, he simply stopped walking midway through the year (five in his last 49 games), didn’t hit lefties, and committed 27 errors in 86 games at short.

Since around August, I’ve written about middle infielder Max Acosta as much as anyone in the system. In mid-July, he began hitting with unprecedented prowess. He continued to rake in the Arizona Fall League, and the available Statcast data confirmed his .338/.413/.521 line wasn’t a desert mirage. During the summer, I’d offhandedly suggested that Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo would be Texas’s only 40 additions come fall, but Acosta insisted on joining those two.

The 20-year-old Mendoza hasn’t (too my knowledge) received any ink in national publications but was among a group of Down East youngsters who toyed with Carolina League batters before moving on. He’s more than organizational filler. I cause myself trouble trying to rank prospects ordinally but after a moment’s thought decided “he’s probably… somewhere… in the 40s.” Jamey Newberg ranked him 37th in early August. In an August start, Mendoza offered a 90-94 fastball that sat mostly 92-93, a breaker that veered from slurvy 80 to sweepy 86, and a mid-80s change that he wasn’t afraid to employ liberally.

Four years ago, Texas traded OF/”C” Heriberto Hernandez, IF Osleivis Basabe and OF Alexander Ovalles to Tampa Bay for 1B Nathaniel Lowe. I didn’t hate the trade but was uneasy, as Hernandez and Basabe were very much on the rise, plus the penny-pinching Rays were trading the minimum-making Lowe in favor of arbitration-eligible Jiman Choi. Certainly, that trade has worked out terrifically for the Rangers. The point is that Tampa Bay acquired some valuable prospects who ultimately have provided negligible value in the MLB level, limited to 31 light-hitting games from Basabe in 2023. The other two are out of the organization.

I’m not claiming that will reoccur in the Burger trade, but there’s a decent chance. Vargas’s inaugural full season was impressive, but I’m not sure where he lands defensively. Acosta’s late-2024 upsurge appears legitimate, but is he more than a role player? Mendoza has a shot, too, but also scant experience above low-A.  

Nate

Scout’s honor: I heard the Max Fried news (8 years and $218 million) while in my car yesterday and mumbled “Eovaldi’s getting $25 per.” Not long after, news came of his three-year $75 million contract. I should take the memory card out of my dashcam and save that moment for posterity. Too much money? Maybe, bordering on probably, but that’s the market, which as a whole has shrugged off the turmoil in local television contracts. Eovaldi will turn 35 before throwing his next regular-season pitch, but his stuff and location have aged admirably. A notable exception is the vertical break on his fastball, which dipped into warning territory in 2024, but opponents slugged only a modest .335 against it.

Webb

Texas also signed RHP Jacob Webb to a one-year deal. Baltimore had non-tendered the arbitration-eligible 31-year old who’d made an even million in 2024. Webb deals a 93ish fastball, low-to-mid-80s slider, and an especially effective mid-80s change.

Rule Five Results

The Rangers didn’t take or lose anyone in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft. In a modest surprise, the second overall pick was former Rangers catcher Liam Hicks, traded in July with RHP Tyler Owens for Tigers catcher Carson Kelly. Detroit added Owens to the 40 had declined to add Hicks. I seriously doubt the Rangers would have protected Hicks had he remained in the organization. Hicks has negligible power but makes contact and draws a zillion walks.

Texas also didn’t select a player in the minor league phase. The Rangers lost RHP Ricky Devito to Miami. Now 26, Devito struck out 30% of his AA opponents last year but also walked or hit an astounding 24%.

Baseball America’s initial list of “players to know” in the Rule 5 draft included two Rangers, 1B Blaine Crim and LHP Bryan Magdaleno, but neither ranked among “players most likely to get picked.” BA offered Oakland’s Ryan Noda as a template for Crim (as did I in my preview), and suggested Magdaleno could be seen as a low risk with high upside. In a subsequent update, BA added 1B Abi Ortiz as a draft possibility. All remain with the organization.

Tendered

Non-tender day (Nov 22nd) was such a snooze that I didn’t bother to file a report. Texas offered everyone a contract and signed pitchers Dane Dunning and Josh Sborz to team-friendly deals. Sborz will miss at least a third of the season after shoulder surgery.

Gone

OF Sandro Fabian
Japan’s Hiroshima club has signed Fabian to a three-year, $5.8 million contract. That Fabian is headed overseas isn’t a surprised, but I wouldn’t have expected such a long and lucrative deal. Fabian made his MLB debut with the Rangers in his ninth professional season, going hitless in five at-bats. He hit 56 homers and 88 other extra-base hits in three seasons in Texas’s minor league system.

Here

RHP Adrian Houser (age 31)
Houser is both a former Sooner and Astro, but let’s give him a chance. He started 97 games and appeared in 23 others for the Brewers during 2019-2023, posting a 4.04 ERA with between 3.4 and 6.2 total WAR depending on source. Unfortunately, after a trade to the Mets, Houser belly-flopped in his walk year, losing his rotation spot by mid-May and MLB job by late July. House relies on a low-to-mid-90s sinker plus a four-seamer, slider, change and curve. 2024 notwithstanding, Houser is a fine depth signing, someone who conceivably could start some games for the Rangers if he bounces back.

RHP Caleb Boushley (31)
Bousley has sipped coffee with the Brewers and Twins the past two seasons. He’s also averaged nearly 130 minor league innings the past four seasons, and my guess is he’ll be last year’s Adrian Sampson, a Triple A inning-eater. And, if the cards fall just right, some swing innings in Arlington.

RHP Bryce Bonnin (26)
A litany of injuries (mostly shoulder) and covid have limited the ex-Red Raider to just 216 innings in seven seasons since graduating high school. Cincinnati flat-out released him last March, less than four years after his selection in the 2020’s third round. He joined the Red Sox and was his usual high-strikeout, high-walk self. He sports a mid-90s heater and low-80s slider.

LHP Michael Plassmeyer (28)
At his best, Plassmeyer befuddles hitters with his control and command and will amass respectable strikeout totals despite an upper-80s fastball augmented with a sweeper and change. Plassmeyer reached the Majors briefly in 2022 and 2023, walking just one in 11 innings but surrendering hits of all varieties at an alarming rate. I’d expect a swing role in Round Rock.

RHP Mailon Felix (25)
The Dominican has never pitched professional in the western hemisphere to my knowledge, although he did sign a contract with a Dominican Winter League club. Felix spent the last three seasons with the farm club of Japan’s Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.

Back

RHP Aidan Anderson (27)
Grant’s brother, homer-prone but throws strikes.

RHP Reid Birlingmair (28)
Generated a little heat as a possible MLB contender, but AAA hitters have confounded him to date.

RHP Codi Heuer (28)
A capable reliever for both Chicago teams in 2020-2021, Heuer has thrown only 12 (minor league) innings the past three seasons.

RHP Steven Jennings (26)
Like Anderson above, solid in AA, homer-prone with Round Rock.

C Cooper Johnson (26)
Has quietly developed into a power hitter. 10 homers in college, nine in his first four pro seasons, 14 in 2024 with AA Frisco.

IF Keyber Rodriguez (24)
Rodriguez is the only player on this list who originally signed with Texas. His OBP tailed off in AA, but he’s versatile ad still fairly young.

OF Luis Mieses (24)
Mieses  signed with Texas last year after becoming a free agent out of the White Sox system. He doesn’t run or walk but provides average and power with the bat.

Elsewhere

Catcher Jorge Alfaro signed with Dominican Winter League club Licey recently but has yet to appear. Now 31, Alfaro didn’t play during the 2024 regular season after being released by the Cubs in late March.

RHP Spencer Howard signed with Japan’s Rakuten Eagles. Howard returned to MLB with both the Giants and Guardians since leaving Texas but didn’t create the type of resume that would garner more than a non-roster invite in the US. To be honest, his stats appear light for Japan as well, but we’ll see.

OF/DH Heriberto Hernandez, part of the aforementioned Lowe trade, became a free agent after playing out his contract and signed a minor deal with the Marlins.  

OF Nick Solak signed a minor deal with Pittsburgh.

Social Media Reminder

Lately, I’ve been providing social media updates at Bluesky. 

40-Man Additions

Added to the 40-man roster are RHP Winston Santos, RHP Emiliano Teodo, and IF Max Acosta.

I wouldn’t call any omission a huge surprise, although I had talked myself into believing the Rangers would select LHP Bryan Magdaleno, who had been awarded the organization’s Reliever of the Year. Also available in the upcoming Rule 5 draft will be righties Dane Acker and Josh Stephan and first baseman Abi Ortiz and Blaine Crim, Defender of the Year IF Cody Freeman, and many more.

The Rangers also returned RHP Carson Coleman to the Yankees. Texas had nabbed him in last year’s Rule 5 draft about halfway through recovery from Tommy John. A setback prevented him from pitching at all in 2024.

The 40-man roster has 39 players at present. The non-tender deadline is Friday.

Elsewhere

Detroit selected RHPs Chase Lee and Tyler Owens, both acquired from the Rangers last summer as part of trades for reliever Andrew Chafin and catcher Carson Kelly, respectively. I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Lee’s addition based on how he performed in Texas, but he did improved his strikeout and walk rates in AAA Toledo. Texas had acquired Owens for OF JP Martinez last winter. He’s pitched well in AA Frisco but I honestly hadn’t watched him carefully enough to develop much of an opinion. Catcher Liam Hicks and RHP Joseph Montalvo, two others Texas shipped in those trades, were not selected. Detroit also designated for assignment former Rangers RHP Ricky Vanasco.

St. Louis picked the contract of RHP TK Roby, who would have been eligible for the R5 if unprotected. He joins a 40 already containing fellow trade acquisition IF Thomas Saggese, who made his MLB debut in September. Roby missed much of 2024 with a shoulder malady and hasn’t advanced beyond the AA level reached with Texas.

Pittsburgh signed RHP Yerry Rodriguez to a minor deal. Atlanta signed IF Charles Leblanc and C Yohel Pozo but released Pozo a couple of days later.