Category: News and Analysis

Opening Day (Minor League Edition)

Round Rock’s season begins tonight at Seattle-affiliated Tacoma. Caleb Boushley has drawn the start, followed by David Buchanan and Adrian Houser. All are offseason signings at least nominally in the hunt for a starting role should the Rangers suffer even more injuries. At 31 years and 178 days old, Boushley is the youngest of the three. Last year’s opening weekend starters were Owen White, Michael Lorenzen (followed by Jack Leiter) and Adrian Sampson.

I neglected to mention yesterday that RHP Patrick Murphy will be added to the AAA injured list.  

Next Friday, Frisco opens at home against Corpus Christi, high-A Hub City begins its existence at Aberdeen in Maryland, and low-A Hickory makes the short trip to Kannapolis.

Now, the A-level rosters (MLB Pipeline top-thirty rankings in parentheses).

High-A Hub City Roster

Pitchers: Paul Bonzagni (24), Wilian Bormie, Seth Clark, Aidan Curry, Joey Danielson, David Davalillo (30), Mailon Felix, Jose Gonzalez, Larson Kindreich, Leandro Lopez, Dylan MacLean, DJ McCarty, Josh Mollerus, Victor Simeon, Anthony Susac, Josh Trentadue, Adonis Villavicencio

22-year-old David Davalillo (1.79 ERA, 22 walks, 79 K in 80 innings) and 23-year-old Jose Gonzalez (2.26 ERA, 20 walks, 117 K in 87 IP) manhandled the Carolina League last year and looked sharp last week. Paul Bonzagni was far from sharp in the Breakout Game but reached high-A in his first pro season last year and has appeared on some top-thirty lists. Josh Trentadue (2023, 14th round) nearly matched Davalillo and Gonzalez in terms of peripherals but was tagged with a 4.46 ERA. 2020 4th-rounder Dylan MacLean is back from elbow surgery.

Aidan Curry will attempt to bounce back from a devilish 2024. ’24 1th-round righty Joey Danielson, who put on a show when I visited Surprise, advances to high-A after 8.1 low-A innings. I would dearly love a fully healthy and progressive season from Leandro.

Catchers: Julian Brock, Malcolm Moore (4), Cal Stark

Not unexpectedly, Texas’s 2024 top pick will resume in high-A Hickory. He didn’t have a great showing in his pro debut, but I always recall Mitch Moreland’s inaugural season at short-A Spokane: .259/.308/.398, an 89 wRC+. He then became one of the best minor league hitters I’ve covered and a respectable MLB hitter as well. Debuts don’t always go well; not everyone is Wyatt Langford.

Brock batted .254/.318/.376 at low-A Down East, which sounds a slightly thin but is an above-average line for that league and park, and he’ll be 24 in June. Stark was an undrafted signing and teammate of Dylan Dreiling at Tennessee.

Infielders: Casey Cook, Danyer Cueva, Arturo Disla, Gleider Figuereo, Esteban Mejia

2024 3rd-rounder Cook didn’t hit much at Down East, but refer to my Moreland comment above. Cook also barely played second base at UNC but hasn’t moved off the bag as a pro.

The 20-year-old Figuereo’s 20 homers co-led the system (along with Blaine Crim) in 2024, but in other respects a midseason promotion to high-A proved stressful on his batting output, and lefties have always eaten his lunch. He responded well in repeating low-A last April, so hopefully he does the same this season.

The already large Disla got even larger over the winter, and, well… he’s not going to play shortstop so who cares. He needed almost six weeks to bop his first homer in 2024 but ended up with 19 and hit .274/.349/.458 overall.

Outfielders: Dylan Dreiling (10), Anthony Gutierrez (18), Keith Jones, Quincy Scott, Marcus Smith

Dreiilng, last year’s second-rounder, drew walks in 18% of his plate appearances but batted .198 and slugged .279. I wouldn’t want to demean him with the “passive” epithet, but the combination of his patience and a bevy of control-impaired opposition might have pushed him a little in that direction. as for contact, Dreiling’s 4% swinging strike rate was the lowest in the entire system.

A year ago, Gutierrez won a mildly surprising promotion to high-A after getting by as an 18-year-old at Down East. He hit about the same last year but will repeat this time. Gutierrez morphed into seemingly more power-oriented approach last year but actually dropped from two homers in 2023 to just one.

Money-saving senior sign Keith Jones (2024, 9th round) clobbered the ball at very hitter-friendly New Mexico State (the entire team posted a 3/4/5 slash).

Low-A Hickory Roster

Pitchers: Ismael Agreda, Angel Anazco, J’Briell Easley, Brooks Fowler, Thomas Ireland, Nick Lockhart, Eric Loomis, Aneudis Mejia, Alberto Mota, Dalton Pence, Kamdyn Perry, Brock Porter, Luke Savage, Caden Scarborough (28), Michael Valverde, Kai Wynyard

Headline: 2022 4th-rounder (but paid like a 1st-rounder) Brock Porter received a full-season assignment. Recall that he was pulled after three extremely wild high-A starts last year, after which he pitched sporadically and no better at the complex. In terms of official games, he was shut down in late July. Unfortunately, I didn’t get a look at him in Surprise.

Agreda, Fowler (2024, 15th round) and Valverde are new to the level, and 11th-rounder Dalton Pence and undrafted ex-Jayhawk J’Briell Easley will be making their pro debuts. That’s not many pure newcomers, but another five (Anazco, Loomis, Mejia, Perry, Scarborough) have faced fewer than 30 batters at the level.

The 19-year-old Perry is the youngest on the roster, a 2023 17th-rounder. A few months older and the one ranked prospect, Scarborough has delivered fastballs consistent in mid-90s velocity but inconsistent in direction. Agreda (21) caught my eye last March with an unhittable performance: half unhittable because he was so good, half because he was missing the zone by literal feet. He’s still pretty skinny and dialing it up to 98.

Catchers: Beycker Barroso, Ben Hartl, Jesus Lopez

As an 18-year-old, Jesus Lopez batted a robust .299/.353/.441 for two months but then crumbled to dust (.155/.237/.214 thereafter) and missed six weeks to injury. Ben Hartl had a fun debut, hitting .324/.481/.432 in 14 low-A games and grabbing a couple of hits for a depleted Round Rock team down the stretch. The 22-year-old Barroso hardly caught in 2025, instead spending the most time at first.

Infielders: Pablo Guerrero, Antonis Macias, Luis Marquez, Rafe Perich, Chandler Pollard

A common occurrence in recent years is Texas’s international hitters destroying the complex league only to belly-flop their first dive into full-season ball. I’d guess a combination of weather (cooler and more humid outside Arizona), park (Down East was a deeply pitcher-friendly park in a pitcher-friendly league), and talent gap (no more short-season ball). Guerrero, Macias, and outfielders Cabrera and De Jesus all saw their production plummet upon arrival. In the final quarter of 2024, after most of the better hitters had moved on, Down East averaged 3.3 runs per game, poor even for the environment. The many repeaters will try to improve at the more forgiving stadium in Hickory.

22-year-old 3B Rafe Perich (2024, 7th round) is at least two years older than every other infielder and could be the quickest to advance despite limited pro experience. (That could also depend on the progress of Figuereo, who has spent all but four games in his career at third.)

Chandler Pollard (2022, 5th round) is repeating the level as a 20-year-old. He spent most of 2024 at 2B in favor of since-traded Echedry Vargas, but I don’t recall seeing him anywhere but shortstop last week in Arizona.

Conspicuously absent from this list is IF Yolfran Castillo, who impressed greatly in Surprise. He has only 15 games of complex experience but stood out among the contenders. Maybe he’ll await more Arizona games, or maybe he’s nursing an injury.

Outfielders: Yeremi Cabrera (16), Jose De Jesus, Max Martin, Wady Mendez, Marcos Torres

The 19-year-old Cabrera has drawn strong reviews for his combination of power and speed, but much to my aggravation, I have witnessed hardly any evidence of it in two Marches in Surprise. Perhaps I’m the problem, although fans in Kinston mostly saw what I saw last year (.185/.298/.247).

The returning Torres’s nearly barren April and August of 2024 included ten-game stretches with just one hit. He did lead the team with 38 walks (a solid 11% rate) as a 19-year-old. Also 19 for a little while longer, Martin (2023, 11th-round) didn’t hit especially well at the complex but as a third-year pro has to prove he can hang at a higher level.

Departures

A host of players from yesterday’s “unassigned” list have been released:

RHP Tim Brennan (2018, 7th round) – For a little while, he had a narrow path to the Majors as a control/command long reliever, but he missed the end of 2022 and all of 2023 to elbow surgery, and his control disappeared upon return to Round Rock.

RHP Bryan Chi – 26-year-old Cuban employed as an across-the-system fill-in last year.

RHP Reid Birlingmair – Signed from indy ball in 2023, Birlingmair quickly impressed enough to become an honest-to-goodness relief prospect, but two tilts at PCL hitters went poorly.

RHP Jacob Maton – An undrafted sign from Coastal Carolina, good control but hittable in high-A.  

RHP Ivan Oviedo – Used low-A Down East as a home base with “just in case” trips to Hickory and Round Rock during 2024.

RHP Andy Rodriguez – Cuba-born, signed out of Miami Dade College, spent last year at Frisco. I referred to him yesterday as Adrian, a different pitcher who finished last year at Hickory and is also unassigned to my knowledge. Sorry about the mix-up.

LHP Justin Sanchez (2022, 18th round) – Signed out of high school for the maximum that doesn’t impact the draft cap ($125,000). 50 strikeouts in 43 low-A innings as a 20-year-old but walk-prone.

OF Yosy Galan – I’ve been doing this for a day or two, and I knew full well that Galan’s plate approach might shipwreck him before he reached AA, but for a while, I was a big fan. Galan has 17 homers and 23 steals per 100 games played, and his wiry athleticism is a joy to watch. He actually walked at an acceptable rate, but 20% of his pitches resulted in a swinging strike. 24 next month, Galan would have been repeating high-A (and to be honest, I’d expected him to get a shot).

OF Tommy Specht (2022, 6th round) – Last March, I suggested Specht ought to improve on his .288 slugging percentage because of a solid line-drive rate and acceptable K rate. He just seemed unlucky. Repeating low-A last year, Specht slugged .219.

RHP Bryce Bonnin, C Brandon Martorano – offseason pickups

Elsewhere

Texas’s Opening Day lineup of hitters played a combined 1,086 MLB games in 2024.  Miami’s hitters had a combined 1,059 MLB games in their entire careers. Former Express and Rangers OF Derek Hill was among them. Rule 5 pick Liam Hicks did not play. They beat the Skenes-led Pirates 5-4, so here’s to inexperience, I guess.

Five Years Ago Yesterday? Absolutely Not.

“I chilled in an Intex pool in my backyard, listened to depressing music, doomscrolled and sipped tequila. No minor league games were played.” *

Five years ago was 2020. Instead of re-running the above every day, I’ve created a special quasi-daily feature I hope you’ll enjoy. I might still reprise some of my intermittent 2020 content.

* In fairness, I also biked often and everywhere because the roads were so uncluttered. I was undoubtedly in the best shape of my post-40-years-old existence during the summer of 2020.

Texas’s four full-season squads announced their opening rosters yesterday. I’ll cover the top levels today and the rest tomorrow. Top-thirty rankings from MLB Pipeline are in parentheses. I’ve updated my rosters and org info here. But first:

Diamond Pod!

On Tuesday, Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid and I discussed our anxiety about the rotation possibly undercutting some favorable predictions among statistical models and pundits, Evan Carter, and what did or didn’t impress us during our trips to Surprise. Links are in my signature.

AAA Round Rock Roster

Pitchers: Dane Acker, Joe Barlow, Caleb Boushley, David Buchanan, JT Chargois, Luis Curvelo, Dane Dunning, Matt Festa, Codi Heuer, Nolan Hoffman, Adrian Houser, Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington, Michael Plassmeyer, Daniel Robert, Hunter Strickland, Emiliano Teodo (6), Cole Winn

The top newcomer is Teodo, who spent last year at AA Frisco and impressed enough in Surprise to throw short, high-leverage relief deep into March despite ostensibly being a rotation prospect. (He probably is a reliever in due course, but we’ll see.) Joining from Frisco are Dane Acker (twice a 40-man groomsman, not yet a groom) and offseason free-agent acquisition Luis Curvelo. On the 40 along with Teodo and Curvelo are Latz, Pennington, Robert and Winn. Dane Dunning was successfully outrighted.

Who is starting for this squad? Several have in the past or worked swing roles, but literally everyone is a potential relief candidate. We might see plenty of bullpen nights and/or tandem-esque usage in lieu of a traditional rotation. My “job” will be to assess who’s standing out as a potential call-up and whether any 40 spots are in jeopardy.

In late news, recently signed Patrick Corbin was assigned to AAA.

Catchers: Tucker Barnhart, Konner Piotto, Chad Wallach

Texas lost Sam Huff and Matt Whatley and didn’t have anyone in the system ready to advance. Thirtysomethings Barnhart and Wallach will jockey for first place should one of the big-league catchers suffer an injury. Piotto is a 2021undrafted signing who might bounce around various levels as needed.

Infielders: Blaine Crim, Justin Foscue (15), Cody Freeman, Jonathan Ornelas, Alan Trejo

Crim, Foscue and Ornelas are the very familiar faces, all beginning their third years at the level. Crim is in his last year before free agency, Ornelas is on his last option, and Foscue (now 26) is probably on his last chance to make an impression. Up from Frisco is Cody Freeman, who’ll play plenty of third and a little second. Freeman’s prospect status took a hit when he stopped catching, but his strong infield defense and best season at the plate in 2024 still make him someone to watch.

Outfielders: Evan Carter, Dustin Harris, Sam Haggerty, Trevor Hauver, Kellen Strahm

The primary story in this group is Evan Carter’s progress. His statcast data will be critical. I’m looking for better contact rates against lefties and better exit velos across the board.

The former CIF Harris has improved to competency in the outfield but has yet to repeat his breakout 2021 at the plate. His mild exit velocity is a concern, although he did smack the hardest-hit ball of his career (at least as measured by Statcast) a couple of weeks ago. MLB Pipeline dumped him completely out of their top thirty, but Baseball America holds more hope with a #19 ranking.

Strahm is a strong AAA OF who would need some breaks to reach the Majors and probably would have better odds in a different organization. Hauver was frankly awful in last season’s first four months and outstanding the final two.

AA Frisco Roster

Pitchers: Robby Ahlstrom, Ben Anderson, Mitch Bratt (21), Gavin Collyer, Kohl Drake (13), Peyton Gray, Skylar Hales (25), Stephen Jennings, Ryan Lobus, Travis MacGregor, Bryan Magdaleno, Daniel Missaki, Winston Santos (5), Josh Stephan (22), Trey Supak, Avery Weems

Not a single pitcher finished last year at a lower level, but Bratt, Collyer, Drake, Lobus and Magdaleno all advanced from high-A fairly late in 2024. Among the likely starters, Santos had a terrific spring including a dominant Breakout Game start, and I saw strong outings from Bratt and Stephan. I didn’t see Drake, but he’s another starter who might reach the Majors. Hales and Magdaleno form a solid relief duo.

A few of these guys have pitched in AAA, and Ahlstrom certainly belongs there but presumably was crowded out temporarily. Gray, MacGregor, Missaki and Supak are offseason signings.

Catchers: Cooper Johnson, Tucker Mitchell, Ian Moller

22-year-old Ian Moller gets a sink-or-swim promotion. The 2021 fourth-rounder has always reached at an impressive rate (career .344 OBP) but has shown little when he swings; he actually has more walks (173) than hits (165). Johnson is a capable undrafted sign. Mitchell has sometimes batted well enough to warrant extra plate appearances at first, but last year both high-A and AA challenged him.

Infielders: Cam Cauley (19), Frainyer Chavez, Alex De Goti, Abimelec Ortiz (14), Keyber Rodriguez, Sebastian Walcott (1)

Cauley’s promotion surprised me, but on further review it makes more sense. On the whole, Cauley backslid modestly from the previous year, and injuries limited him to 93 games. In his favor, from July onwards he batted .243/.316/.497 with 10 homers in 43 games, and he improved on what had become an alarming tendency to strike out. Cauley makes noisy contact, the question is how often.

Ortiz will try to maintain last year’s second-half surge. His stats and underlying data in March were solid, while I saw one beefy homer and some fearsome (in a bad way) hacks through breaking stuff. Chavez and Rodriguez are re-signed free agents. You’ve probably heard of Sebastian Walcott.

Outfielders: Josh Hatcher, Luis Mieses, Alejandro Osuna (8), Aaron Zavala

Osuna deserves a Triple A assignment on the merits, so in that respect I’m disappointed, but some additional time in Frisco isn’t worrying. Round Rock has five outfielders already, and though their prospect statuses might vary, they all deserve to be there, and none will be collecting dust on the bench. In Round Rock he’d be part of a rotation, whereas in Frisco he won’t have anyone crowding him for playing time.

Hatcher, Mieses and Zavala are holdovers from 2024. The 26-year-old Hatcher batted .300/.350/.448 last year and earned an end-of-season promotion to AAA, and he could return if some room is created.

Unassigned To Date (listed by where they finished 2024)

AAA pitchers: Aidan Anderson, Reid Birlingmair, Tim Brennan, Ryan Garcia, Nick Krauth

AA pitchers: Bryce Bonnin, Bryan Chi, Jackson Kelley, Adrian Rodriguez

High-A pitchers: Jacob Maton, Mason Molina, Ivan Oviedo, Florencio Serrano

Low-A pitchers: Kolton Curtis, Jake Jekielek, Janser Lara, Justin Sanchez

Position Players: IF Jax Biggers (AAA), IF Theo Hardy (AAA but mostly hi-A), C Brandon Martorano (AA), OF Yosy Galan (hi-A), IF Erick Alvarez (lo-A)

Transactions

Texas released OF Cody Thomas, who spent last year in Japan following brief MLB spells with Oakland in 2022 and 2023.

Elsewhere

Sam Huff has won the battle for San Francisco’s #2 catcher spot over Max Stassi, with some assistance from perpetually injured would-be #2 Tom Murphy, who played only 13 games last season and is currently out for an unspecified time with a back injury.

Philadelphia designated RHP Tyler Phillips for assignment, and he’s been acquired by the Marlins. He’s out of options and will join their big-league roster, partly because they’ve suffered some injuries, and partly because they’re the Marlins. Phillips debuted for his boyhood team last summer, nine years after he was drafted.

RHP Mason Englert has made Tampa Bay’s Opening Day roster. The Rays acquired him in trade after Detroit designated him for assignment. Non-roster invite Jonathan Hernandez was in the hunt but apparently will head to AAA Durham.

OF Travis Jankowski made the White Sox.

RHP David Robertson remains unemployed.

Dunning Waived

Per Joel Sherman of the NY Post, Texas has placed righty Dane Dunning on outright waivers. Dunning will make $2.66 million this season, not a princely sum in itself but important in terms of Texas’ strong desire to avoid a third consecutive luxury tax. I’m not optimistic about a pure claim, even though he has an option, but perhaps the Rangers can finesse a trade that saves a portion of his salary. My understanding, per Article VI. E. (3)*, of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, is that Dunning is due his full salary because he and the Rangers reached an agreement prior to an arbitration hearing. Also, for tax purposes, per XXIII. C. (2) (b) (iii) (f), “Any Uniform Player’s Contract that is assigned outright to a Minor League club shall be included in the Club’s Actual Club Payroll.”

Dunning has been held in disfavor for a while, getting optioned late last season, accepting a maximum 20% pay cur last fall, and facing a third and final optional assignment this spring. I assumed he would claim a long spot with even a barely passable performance, but since back-to-back two-inning scoreless appearances he’s been bombed, giving up 20 runners and ten runs in seven innings. The underlying Statcast data isn’t as alarming but certainly doesn’t acquit him. Three of his four homers allowed were no-doubters by my accounting, and much of the contact was squared.

Still, I didn’t see this coming this soon. I was considering DFA possibilities just last night, as one does. Texas has several recently optioned pitchers (three come to mind) who lack Dunning’s prior MLB success and will have to improve in AAA to have a chance at getting back to Arlington outside an emergency. What about IF Jonathan Ornelas (although I like him and think he still has a chance), or even IF Justin Foscue (a former first-rounder but struggling this spring and buried on the depth chart)? No, Texas chose Dunning. (Note that technically, Dunning has not been designated yet, just waived.)

In 2023, a noteworthy year for the organization as you might recall, Dunning led the Rangers in innings and ranked second among pitchers in wins above replacement.

Surprise, Wednesday and Thursday

Above-slot 11th-rounder Dalton Pence gave me a better look on Wednesday than the previous Sunday. The fastball gained a tick to a steady 93, and his induced vertical break often exceeded 20 inches, which is elite. It hummed over several bats and completed at least two strikeouts.

Righty Leandro Lopez pitched to form: exciting and erratic. He would run multiple fastballs (95-96) and curves (low 80s) far too high, then induce a pitiful swing on something perfectly placed. I also saw a couple of high-80s changes. 23 in June and eligible for the Rule 5 draft if unprotected, Lopez has tempted for some time but has to display better control to separate from the pack.

Righty Josh Mollerus, acquired for DFAed reliever Yerry Rodriguez last summer, had an ugly season at high-A Hickory: 5.40 ERA with a .256/.359/.522 opposing line including six homers in 23 innings. He has the ingredients for better, at least from what I saw Thursday: a 92-93 four-seamer with impressive vertical and horizontal movement, a mid-80s slider, a cutter, and a change. Some of the sliders were sharp; some were served on a platter.

24-year-old righty Victor Simeon, around since 2019, mixed a mid-90s four and two-seamer, mid-80s slider and change. When he caught my eye last March, I believe I only saw a four and slider. He was effective if walk-prone at low-A Down East and at the very end of the season reached high-A, where I expect he’ll return.

I got my first look at 22-year-old Jesus Mosquera, about whom I knew nothing entering the day. Looking him up afterwards, I found someone who hadn’t thrown in a real game since 2022 and with beyond-calamitous results: four innings, nine hits, 24 walks and four hit batters in the Dominican League. He did walk a batter in two innings but generally showed no worse control than the average low-level pitcher you’d run across in March. He offered a 94 fastball and 83-87 slider which was erratic but missed several bats.

21-year-old righty Jormy Nivar is the anti-Mosquera on paper: healthy in 2023-2024 and with 18 walks and 80 strikeouts in 76 DSL innings. A skinny 6’3”, Nivar cleanly delivered a 92-93 sinker with substantial horizontal movement, a mid-80s slider, and an upper-80s change. I’d guess both Nivar and Mosquera will await the start of rookie ball, although I suppose the they have a shot at low-A.

I watched a little of 2023 17th-round righty Kamdyn Perry from Bishop Gorman High in Las Vegas (former home of Joey Gallo, among others). The inning I saw was ultimately rolled (cut short of three outs), but he offered horizontal movement in the high teens on both his sinker (91-93) and sweeper (76-79). Perry reach low-A late last season

As for the hitters, here’s video of Sebastian Walcott collecting two hits.

IF Yolfran Castillo unexpectedly played in Thursday’s AAA game and carried himself well, exhibiting a patient approach, reaching safely on a walk and firm single and stealing a bag. A young 18, he should be headed to low-A Hickory.

Among those I saw frequently, 2024 seventh-round 3B Rafe Perich continued to impress, again giving me tedious video of bad pitch after bad pitch ignored for a ball. The downside is we probably won’t really know much about him until he reaches AA and faces pitchers with more consistent control. He did exhibit some impressive line-drive swings, so I don’t want to suggest he’s nothing but eye.

The best power I saw during the last two days came from 19-year-old Dominican Kleimir Lemos, who played all over the infield last year but looks like a corner to me. He smacked a high pitch that didn’t need Arizona’s atmosphere to leave the grounds, and by raising up to meet the ball square, he didn’t seem to have any lower body contributing to that blast. He later doubled solidly. Last year, Lemos reached America after tearing up the DSL for a little while. In the complex league he struck out 20 times against zero walks in 78 trips to the plate. So… there’s that, but he can drive the ball!

Transactions

The Rangers released RHP Jesse Chavez, who arguably held an advantage over numerous non-roster competitors for a bullpen spot in Arlington, but even he had to earn it and could not. As required by the CBA, the Braves immediately signed him to a minor deal.

Texas signed reliever Hunter Strickland on the 15th, released him Friday, and re-signed him yesterday.

The Rangers released OF Nick Ahmed.

Elsewhere

Rule 5 pick Liam Hicks will make the Marlins. The former Texas catcher was part of last year’s trade with Detroit for catcher Carson Kelly. The Tigers left him unprotected (Texas would have as well, I believe), and Miami nabbed him second overall. Hicks batted to form this spring, .222/.417/.259 with more walks than strikeouts.

Out-of-options ex-Ranger Sam Huff and NRI Max Stassi are fighting for the SF #2 catcher job into the waning moments.

* “Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in Article IX, a tendered arbitration eligible Player (as defined in paragraph (1) above and confirmed by the Parties pursuant to paragraph (2) above) who reaches a confirmed agreement with his Club on salary for the following season prior to the matter being heard by the arbitration panel shall be eligible for in-season termination pay as set forth in Article IX(C) (i.e., in the full amount of the agreed upon paragraph 2 salary for the upcoming season) in the event the Player’s contract is terminated by his Club under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player’s Contract for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability prior to Opening Day.”

Sunday

2020 4th-round lefty Dylan MacLean is back from elbow surgery. MacLean threw a 76-78 breaker that I considered a slurve with more “urve” than “sl,” but the gentleman on the Trackman feed called it a sweeper. It was fairly effective. The fastball was in the 89-91 range, a couple of ticks under where he’d reached in 2022. We’ll see how that develops.

Mitch Bratt dominated the KC opposition, getting both calls and swings in his favor on a variety of pitches. Bratt reached AA last year but was pitching the high-A game, which is no knock on him but in the world of intersquads does mean that several opposing hitters probably hadn’t even reached that level yet. Bratt had some struggles last year in AA but pitched better than his 5.70 ERA. He doesn’t throw especially hard but has better command than most his age. I didn’t get any speed readings Sunday. A return to Frisco is likely.

Righty Adonis Villavicencio signed in January 2022 at the very advanced age of 21, so he’s now a 24-year-old with only 23 innings of full-season ball. With his 95-96 fastball and 88 slider, he’ll have ample opportunity for more. Except for early last summer at the complex (18.1 IP, 3 BB, 21 K), his control has been lacking.

Fellow Venezuelan righty Jose Gonzalez is a few months younger but signed three years prior. He too didn’t have any impact in full-season ball until last year, but his was in the form of 87 innings with just 20 walks and 107 strikeouts. Gonzalez has a broad mix including a low-90s fastball but relies most heavily on a slider that drew several hapless swings on Sunday. I expect he’ll be assigned to high-A Spartanburg.

I saw Joey Danielson. Not the one who received credit for David Davalillo’s three-K inning in the Spring Breakout game, but the actual Joey. Last year’s 17th-rounder spent four years at North Dakota State and allowed 66 runners in 39 innings in 2024. The scant information available indicated a low-90s fastball and low-80s slider. That’s the history, but the Danielson of March 2025 had a fastball that ranged 94-97, a 90 MPH slider, and an 87 splitter. The opposition didn’t trouble him. Although he didn’t appear in the Breakout and was perhaps there only as a just-in-case, he was notably the only pitcher from last year’s draft on the roster.

2024 11th-round lefty Dylan Pence offered a low-90s fastball and 84ish slider, in line with his output as UNC’s closer. In college, Pence riding fastball missed a ton of bats despite so-so speed. He also throws a changeup, but I don’t recall seeing one.

Tuesday

I reluctantly had to choose between my one chance to see Brock Porter (in Peoria) and a better overall mix in Surprise. I hesitated but chose Surprise. Peoria’s squads contained many I’ll soon see in Round Rock, plus the two games there weren’t on adjacent fields, so observing both would be nearly impossible.

The posted AA lineup included Sebastian Walcott, Malcolm Moore, Dylan Dreiling and others worth a serious look, but the at-bats every inning were devoted mostly to Nick Ahmed, Leody Taveras, Josh Smith and Tucker Barnhart. For my purposes, that qualifies as a disappointment. I had the privilege to watch Josh Smith bat from about 30 feet away, and I’m thinking “the list says Cam Cauley and Anthony Gutierrez, where are they?” In any case, Smith homered, and a small gathering of actual fans (not degenerates like me) cheered boisterously.

Among those in the written lineup who did participate on the offensive side, 1B Abi Ortiz homered and doubled, DH Malcolm Moore singled once, and OF Dylan Dreiling grounded out and took a third strike.

The so-called AA staff consisted of a crowd of MLB relievers and aspirants: Shawn Armstrong, Hoby Milner, Dane Dunning, Marc Church, Jesse Chavez, JT Chargois, Joe Barlow, and Codi Heuer. I only saw Church and Heuer at length. The former retired his side almost instantly, generating two strikeouts on a slider and (I think) a change. I wouldn’t say I’ve been the “low man” on Church, but I’ve been more cautious than most because I’ve seen him in person frequently and worried about his fastball, which has dazzled in terms of pure stuff but often betrayed him in location. It improved toward the end of 2024, and I’m hopeful he can spend a large chunk (if not all) of the season in Arlington.

As for Heuer, two of his four “A” appearances before he was sent to minor league camp were wipeouts, but I can see the appeal. Heuer fired a 96-98 fastball with 18”-19” inches of vertical break, an 85-87 slider and what appears to be a splitter at 89-90. I find no record of him throwing one before, but the speed, slo-mo RPM (under 1400) and location (dirt) feel splittery to me. His delivery lacks deception, though; the ball is offered high for all to see throughout. He struck out batters with a fastball and slider. Heuer pitched in the Majors in 2020-2022 but missed the last two seasons with Tommy John and a subsequent fractured elbow.

Righty Ismael Agreda served as the low-A opener and completed his inning with annoying haste. The fastball was around 97. I don’t think I saw a slider. Last March, I remember him blowing his heater past everyone but having next to no ability to land his slider. He’s great fun to watch, but control has been a serious issue. He’s spent the last two seasons at the complex, but as a 21-year-old beginning his fifth pro year, I’d guess he gets a sink-or-swim full-season assignment.

Lefty Mason Molina, acquired from Milwaukee in a waiver-induced trade for Grant Anderson, was exactly as advertised, dealing a 90-92 fastball with ample ride to miss bats plus a slider and change hovering around 83. He proceeded through three innings quickly.

Righty Nick Lockhart pitched a strong low-A inning. My recollection was a low-90s fastball, but on Tuesday he offered a 94-96 sinker, 82-83 slider and I believe a change at 89. Lockhart didn’t pitch in 2024 because of an elbow injury. Now 24, he was Texas’s 11th-round pick in 2019 and has spent most of his career at the A levels.

2023 13th-round righty William Privette throws a fastball that is virtually a cutter: 91-93 with only 1”-3” of horizontal break most of the time. He added a 79-81 slider that isn’t quite sweepy but at least budges sideways more than the fastball. Privette didn’t pitch much or well in 2024, walking eight of 16 batters. I didn’t keep good track of results, but I don’t recall him exhibiting control that problematic on Tuesday.

Lefty Larson Kindreich has a professional K rate of 31% (including 32% at AA Frisco) but has walked or plunked almost one of every five batters. The tolerability level for lack of control has risen in recent years, as a good many pitchers can shrug off those free passes with a combination of strikeouts and low average on balls in play, but that level has not risen to Kindreich’s BB/HBP rate of 19%. I expect he’ll return to Frisco to hone that control.

I wish I had more to say about OF Yeremi Cabrera, OF Paulino Santana, 1B Pablo Guerrero and MIF Curley Martha. They haven’t done anything wrong that I recall, but they just haven’t stood out in the two days I’ve seen them. That’s the nature of baseball. I’ll probably see them tomorrow, too.

3B Rafe Perich, last year’s seventh-rounder out of Lehigh, has been solid, ignoring the wilder entries of young hurlers for walks, lining a single, and I heard about (but didn’t see) a triple. Perich drew eight walks in 33 trips to the plate for low-A Down East late last year. If I showed you a picture of him and said “guess the position,” you’d say third base or right field. He just looks the part.

Corbin

Never thought I’d be writing about Patrick Corbin in 2025, but such are the times. I dug through his game logs, splits and Statcast data looking for a silver lining, and… let’s see. He had a 1.56 ERA in his six wins and 8.03 ERA in 13 losses last year, so if he only pitches to win, he’ll be fine. But seriously, what he offers, probably all he offers, is innings and a reduction in the bullpen’s burden. Bad as he’s been, he’s more likely to finish five frames in April than Leiter or Rocker. He reached five in 25 of 32 starts last year. Much of that was Washington’s perverse resolve to send him out there start after start knowing full well what would transpire, but he will gut through those innings if you let him.  

Greetings from Surprise (and Scottsdale)

Saturday evening, I attended the Spring Breakout game between the Rangers and Giants in Scottsdale. I created a playlist of pitcher videos here. Hitters will be posted down the road.

Unfortunately, I missed most of starter Winston Santos’s outing because of unforeseen traffic on US 60. Santos shredded nine consecutive batters on 38 pitches, of which 27 were strikes and 12 missed bats. Admittedly, the Breakout lineups are a broad range of levels. Santos didn’t face anyone with significant AAA experience to my knowledge, and the Giants’ farm is currently drawing somewhat less than rave reviews at the moment. Still, he doesn’t get to choose his opposition, and he made the pitches. I barely had a chance to scribble down anything, but I did see some 96 MPH heaters and an 87 slider. Santos suffered some growing pains upon promotion to AA Frisco, occasionally arriving without control or ability to keep the ball inside the park. In his playoff outing against Midland, however, he fanned 12 in six innings and allowed two runs (one earned). He has a chance to reach the Majors this season.

Righty Josh Stephan was among the busiest pitchers in last year’s Arizona Fall League, including a start in the championship game. It was at least partly an audition for a 40-man spot. Opinions varied on whether he’d get one. I was lukewarm, to be honest, as I just didn’t think what he showed at that moment would suffice against Major Leaguers. In two scoreless innings following Santos, Stephan didn’t match Santos’s dominance (no shame there) but was nearly as effective. Notably, Stephan’s sinker, typically 90-94 in the AFL, was 94-96 yesterday. That added velocity could be helpful, either as an improved weapon by itself or to tee up his broad mix of secondaries.

Caden Scarborough is a fun project with a 6’5” frame that’s added some mass but could easily take on more. He offered a level 94-96 fastball, an 81-84 slider that sometimes had some two-plane depth and sometime sharply swept, and (I believe) one 85 change that ran outside. A walk, single and double resulted in two runs. The double was a too-high fastball that Giant Adrian Sugastey swatted oppo to the fence. Drafted in 2023’s fifth round and about to turn 20, Scarborough is learning his craft on the fly. His 2024 line wasn’t attractive, and this year’s might not be either, but his stuff and projectability demand patience.

The box score insists 2024 17th-rounder Joey Danielson pitched on Sunday, but unless he lost two inches and 40 pounds over the offseason, that was David Davalillo making quick work of the Giants in the 7th. On 14 pitches, Davallillo fanned the side swinging around a grounded single. He mixed a 93-96 fastball (a little hotter than I remember), an 82-84 slider, and one hard curve. Davalillo signed as a 19-year old in 2022, so he’ll be Rule 5-eligible this winter if unprotected. He reached high-A toward the end of 2024, and I’d guess he’ll return there, probably with an eye toward significant time in AA. (I saw and was impressed by Danielson Monday. More on him later.)

Paul Bonzagni did not have a fun day at all, walking his first opponent on four pitches and allowing four hits before recording a swinging strikeout. He wasn’t quite that bad; the first single was an annoying chopper over 3B Cody Freeman, and a grounder to SS Chandler Pollard with two on that might have been a force at any square with a snap decision ended up being an all-safe because of hesitation. A hard fly just eluded CF Paulino Santana for a double. I’m not making excuses, but there’s an alternate universe in which he escaped without much damage. Bonzagni leaned hard on a 94-98 fastball early (again, a little hotter than I remembered, but the gun was accurate) before adding some 85-87 sliders. The 2023 12th-rounder finished last year at high-A.

The AA season begins in 18 days, AAA in just 11, and ostensible stater Emiliano Teodo is still out there dealing short bursts of high-leverage relief. Teodo was slow by his standards, delivering five fastballs at 96-97, four of them outside, before generating an inning-ending double play on 99.

Lefty Bryan Magdaleno entered the 9th for the semi-save opportunity (preserving a 5-5 tie in a game that would not go to extras). With his 94-96 fastball (plus one at 97) and 82-84 slider, Magdaleno was a little unsteady, allowing a lined single and hitting a batter, but a couple of called third strikes and ordinary grounder would strand the runners. Magdaleno rose from the throng of relief prospects to become a dark-horse 40 candidate last summer (but not that dark, say, auburn). He wasn’t protected or picked in the Rule 5 but enters this season with a chance to reach the 40 and active roster at the same time.

On to hitters. Sebastian Walcott struck out and blooped a single off AAA lefty Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco’s best pitching prospect. He later sharply lined a single to center off 2023 2nd-rounder Joe Whitman, who spent most of 2024 in high-A like Walcott. He would later get picked off. He defended ably.

OF Alejandro Osuna has been busy and successful enough in “A” games this spring that a prospect game almost seems a demotion even though he’s yet to reach AAA. Osuna reached on a single and walk.

2024 top pick Malcolm Moore walked and doubled hard to right. 2nd-rounder Dylan Dreiling swatted an opposite-field liner for a single off Whisenhunt. Barely-18 2B Yolfran Castillo also reached off Whisenhunt with an infield single and later lined a single to left off Whitman. 3B Cam Cauley singled on a 98 MPH fastball from AAA hurler Carson Seymour.

CF Anthony Gutierrez made a highlight-reel catch of a soft fly and grounded to right for a single. 2025 is a critical season for the 20-year-old whose talent hasn’t made much impact in games the last two years.

Substitute CF Paulino Santana lined a 100 MPH pitch from Gerelmi Maldonado past first for a single. He reached second on an error but was caught stealing third for the final out. Tsk tsk. Santana will make his stateside debut after batting .292/.465/.364 in the Dominican Summer League. Santana hit for scant power – not even generating doubles and triples with speed – but more should be forthcoming.

1B Abimelec Ortiz has a .429 average with a double and homer in 14 “A” plate appearances, but Sunday recalled his sour first half of 2024 at Frisco. Although he fanned only once in four hitless at-bats, some of his misses on massive cuts through breaking stuff just didn’t look appetizing.

OF Yeison Morrobel injured his leg running out a grounder and crumpled to the ground beyond first base. He walked off with assistance and wasn’t limping too badly, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of an injury that delays his assignment.  

Elsewhere

St. Louis optioned IF Thomas Saggese to AAA.

The White Sox released non-roster invite Joey Gallo. Gallo was 2-for-20 with a walk and 11 strikeouts. In tracked stadiums, he had a 25% swinging-strike rate and missed on 48% of his swings, high even for him. Today, he announced he would henceforth be known as the pitcher Joey Gallo. That is not a joke.

Influenced by a brief conversation with radio voice Matt Hicks before today’s game, here’s all hitters with at least 2,000 plate appearances and a batting average under .200, ranked by OPS:

Joey Gallo (OPS .775, batting average .194)
Mike Zunino (.676, .199)
Austin Hedges (.559, .186)
Jeff Mathis (.551, .194)
Mike Ryan (.532, .193)
Charlie Bastain (.532, .189)
Tim Keefe (.521, .187)
Warren Spahn (.520, .194)
Bill Bergen (.395, .170)

Gallo is the only non-catcher in the top five. He is (was) also the only good hitter, period, retiring from that capacity with a park-adjusted OPS+ of 106 and WAR of 15.6. To find a higher OPS and sub-.200 average, we must drop to just 534 career PA. Ryan Schimpf of the Padres and Dodgers batted .195/.318/.496 with 35 homers and 178 strikeouts across 2016-2018.

Years ago, I recall saying something to the effect that the ceiling for Gallo could be AL MVP if Mike Trout didn’t exist. That sounds delusional in the harsh light of 2025, but for a while, a sadly short while, he really was that good.

Opening Day!

For intersquads. AA and below begin a 16-game schedule Tuesday, while AAA will play only nine because the regular season starts a week earlier. Don’t read too much into player assignments for these contests. For example, the so-called low-A squad will likely be populated with many who’ll stay in Surprise beyond March and wait for the rookie league to start. Sometimes, though, an aggressive assignment is a tell.

I expect to be there Sunday at the latest.

Bullpen Battle

Within my lists of organizational info, I’ve created a “Bullpen Battle” sheet compiling stats and opinions on every relief contender I mentioned in February. It includes average speeds of all pitch types (minimum 5 thrown).

On Sunday, Texas optioned Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington and Cole Winn. Latz hadn’t appeared in a real game until the day before. Winn couldn’t find the plate (4 BB in 3.2 IP, 47% strike rate), while Pennington could but suffered too much hard contact. Also optioned was righty Winston Santos, an offseason 40 addition who hasn’t pitched above AA.

Emiliano Teodo hasn’t pitched above AA, either, but he’s still in MLB camp. Is he ever. Teodo has entered the 9th and recorded saves his last two outings, striking out five and permitting just one runner on a medium-hard grounder. Admittedly, he hasn’t faced Ohtani/Betts/Freeman, but three of the seven opposing hitters have reached the Majors, and three others have ranked among their respective team’s top-30 prospects this year and/or last. Teodo’s sinker has averaged 98.7 MPH and peaked at 100.8. He’s split almost equally between heaters and sliders while tossing just one changeup. Assuming he’s still on the rotation development path, he’ll need to begin stretching out soon. If he doesn’t, well, we’ve got a story.

Kumar Rocker needed to either outperform Cody Bradford or overwhelm opponents in short bursts to make the Opening Day roster. He’s done neither, and his last outing was an intrasquad rather than an “A” game in front of spectators. Mildly disappointing, I suppose, but not a real concern. Rocker is working on a traditional curve (distinct from the mid-80s version that nearly everyone but Rocker himself dubs a slider.)

Jack Leiter leads every bullpen contender in average velocity on the four-seam fastball (98.1), curve (83), and change (92). Leiter’s new sinker trails Teodo by 1.2 MPH (forgivable). He’s also throwing a reconfigured change that is coming in three tics faster than last year but with less spin and more drop. Both he and Rocker appear bound for Round Rock.

We’ll see what happens in a couple of weeks, but a selection of the eight best relievers irrespective of salary or options has to include Marc Church. As always, the slider is a weapon (swinging strikes on 31% of all pitches and 53% of swings), and he’s made progress on a fastball that has sometimes been too wild and too hittable. Church has even mixed in a handful of low-90s changes. Last year’s number of changeups was zero.

Dane Dunning has been pretty good, and pretty good is probably good enough. Of the six MLB relievers acquired by trade or cash this offseason, only Shawn Armstrong qualifies as a multi-inning type, and even he was limited to ten appearances of at least two innings in 2024. Gerson Garabito is another potential long man, albeit more likely in an up-and-down role.

Luis Curvelo has fanned seven in 5.2 IP and drawn whiffs on 50% of opposing swings against his 95 MPH fastball and 85 slider. Curvelo earned a Major League contract despite being a minor league free agent with no MLB experience. So far, he’s proved worthy of a 40 spot.

As it stands, if non-roster invite Jesse Chavez makes the Opening Day roster, it will be on reputation, not this spring’s performance.

Other Notes

Caveat: small samples.

Against lefties, OF Evan Carter is 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. In the six plate appearances for which we have data, 73% of his swings have drawn air, and two-thirds of his takes have been called strikes (typical is about 30%). Again, that’s just a few trips to the plate, but it’s a legitimate concern. Carter is hitting .231/.286/.385 with a two strikeouts in 14 PA versus righties. His hard-hit rate is 18%.

Meanwhile, Kevin Pillar isn’t hitting lefties either (1-for-6) but is .333/.381/.389 overall and acting as if his retirement was premature. Sam Haggerty has also hit well but hasn’t played quite as often this spring and has five career MLB starts in CF compared to Pillar’s 821. Leody Taveras’s “my OBP is what it is so might as well swing for the fences” approach has resulted in a team-leading three homers.

70% of pitches to Ezequiel Duran have been outside the zone (the team average is 50%). He’s largely ignored those pitches and leads the team with four walks, but the contact has been mild (.118/.286/.176).

Good news: OF/1B Dustin Harris scorched a single at 111.0 MPH, 3.6 higher than any of 555 contacted fair balls in two years at AAA (and some coffee in MLB). He hit another 106.2, just 0.2 shy of his ’23-’24 peak. Not as good: His hard-hit rate (31%), median and 90th-percentile exit velos still lag behind the team averages.

1B/2B/DH Justin Foscue is not having a fun spring, hitting .200/.250/.333 with five strikeouts in 16 trips to the plate. Under the hood are some even ickier stats, including a 31% swinging strike overall and 45% when he swings. Along with a keen batting eye, his success in the minors has been built on a high contract rate. The 26-year-old has no path to the Rangers, absent injuries, so he’s largely performing for other organizations. The potential silver linings are a reasonable 44% hard-hit rate and a comparison to last spring, when he batted .250/.316/.396 with two walks and 14 strikeouts (getting hit three times accounts for 55 points of OBP). Maybe he’s just not a March guy.

OF Alejandro Osuna is hitting .435/.481/.652 and on several occasions has raised the decibel level of the radio voices with some fine defense. He isn’t going to make the Opening Day roster but is positioning himself for consideration down the road. The underlying statcast data is encouraging.

IF Sebastian Walcott’s miss rate is half the team average, he’s laying off out-of-zone pitches and connecting hard when he swings. I’m excited.

2B Marcus Semien is hitting .172/.226/.345 with the lowest 90th-percentile exit velocity (97.7) of any Ranger with at least six balls in play. I’m worri—NO NO NO! See, this is the kind of potholed dead-end road I find myself on when messing with tiny data sets.

Transactions

Texas released OF Daniel Mateo. Now 23, Mateo displayed an intriguing mix of speed and power at the lower levels, hitting .272/.318/.412 with 43 steals and 12 homers in 2022 and .259/.275/.407 with 30 steals and ten homers in 2023. Last year in AA Frisco wasn’t nearly as successful, and he was on track to become a free agent after this season.

Elsewhere

San Francisco catcher Sam Huff is batting .313/.522/.613. In 23 trips to the plate, he has 26% walk rate, a 39% strikeout rate and .667 average on balls in play. Welcome to the Cactus League. He hasn’t played in many parks with public data, and I wouldn’t dream of analyzing those crazy top-line stats, but I do know that putative second catcher Tom Murphy is hurt (again), so the optionless Huff would appear to have a solid shot at an Opening Day position. The Giants claimed Huff off waivers a while back.

Reliever Grant Anderson (Milwaukee) was knocked around and optioned to AAA Nashville. Owen White (Reds, then Yankees, now White Sox) threw a scoreless inning in his first appearance yesterday.

The Marlins optioned IF Max Acosta to AAA Jacksonville. Early March assignments aren’t carved in stone, but should he stay put, he’ll be making his debut at that level. Acosta was part of the Jake Burger trade.  IF Echedry Vargas is probably headed for high-A Beloit.

LHP Andrew Chafin signed a minor deal with Detroit. He’ll make $2.5 million plus up to $1.5 in incentives if he sticks, but it’s quite the fall from the $6.5 million club option Texas declined last fall. Incidentally, Detroit optioned offseason 40-man additions Chase Lee and Tyler Owens to AAA Toledo. Both were acquired for Chafin last summer.

San Diego signed lefty Wes Benjamin to a minor deal. Benjamin had spent the last three seasons in Korea. The Texas 2014 5th-rounder pitched 45 innings for the Rangers across 2020-2021.

The Mets signed RHP Jose Urena to a minor deal, and St. Louis signed catcher Yohel Pozo to a minor deal. Pozo had joined Atlanta early in the offseason but was soon released.

About two weeks ago I realized Willie Calhoun was out of contract. “He’d already have a deal were he headed to Japan or Korea. Maybe Mexico,” I thought. Last Tuesday, Calhoun signed with Quintana Roo. The LMB has become a popular destination for players who’ve aged out of MLB (like 42-year-old Robinson Cano) or can’t get signed as AAA depth.

Rosario Out

Per local reports, RHP Alejandro Rosario has an elbow injury that will likely require season-ending surgery. Rosario entered the season as baseball’s #39 prospect per FanGraphs, #50 per MLB.com, #64 per The Athletic, and #72 per baseball Prospectus.

I saw the word “acute” in reference to his injury, but some worrisome events preceded this news. Rosario was promoted to AA Frisco in early September but was shut down with fatigue before making an appearance. He was also absent from the invite list to Major League camp. Not that the Rangers were obliged, but I was expecting him on it.

Jack Leiter’s Sinking Outlook

Hey, I can do clickbait headlines, too. In 2024, Leiter threw 1,028 four-seam fastballs and zero sinkers. In his Saturday debut: 13 four-seamers, seven sinkers. The latter were originally classified as fours but later changed, and yes, they’re really sinkers, averaging about a tick lower in velocity with less vertical break and 12”-17” of horizontal break. They ran middle-to-high and mostly within the zone.

His regular fastball averaged 98.8 and topped at 99.9. Locationally, it had the spray that dampens its effectiveness, either too high to offer at or mid-mid. Yes, its late February and his first outing, but I’m noting for future reference. Leiter’s fastball ranks highly in Stuff models but had a league-worst value of -16 runs in 2024, even though he threw only 35 innings. Not today but before long, the only meaningful stats will be the results.

Another Signing

Texas signed 36-year-old Kevin Pillar to a minor league deal. Despite intending to retire after last season, he’s aged pretty well and wouldn’t be the worst guy to have around. He can still defend, run, and get a hold of an occasional pitch. He’s never walked much, and the loss of 40 points of batting average from his prime undercuts his utility. Since 2022, he has a power-oriented, OBP-averse line against lefties (.250/.261/.472) and not much of anything against righties (.173/.250/.292).
 
Your New Spring Training Overlord

Through Sunday, MLB’s spring leader in homers and slugging percentage (min. 5 plate appearances) is none other than OF Trevor Hauver, who has a double and two homers in five trips to the plate. Through August 11 last season, Hauver was hitting .195/.305/.305 with a 33% strikeout rate, frankly the kind of performance that might get a 25-year-old released. In his final 29 games, Hauver reached safely in 27 and batted .374/.485/.701 with 17 doubles, six homers and a 22% strikeout rate. I didn’t delve more than superficially into the data at the time, but now I have. Here’s some info before and after August 11:

Hard-hit rate: 30% before, 48% after (PCL average 35%)
Median exit velo: 87.6 before, 94.2 after (89.8)
90th-percentile exit velo: 103.0 before, 104.2 after (103.1)
Average on 95+ exit velo: .500 before, .615 after (.545)
Slugging on 95+ exit velo: .955 before, 1.300 after (1.091)

Hauver didn’t improve his top-end velo so much as pull his mid-range from below-average to outstanding. Particularly relevant was his improvement against fastballs:

Whiff rate: 25% before, 10% (!) after (PCL average 22%)
Avg./Slugging on contact: .273/.409 before, .357/.607 after (.369/.621)
Line on PAs ending with fastball: .150/.313/.225 before, 303/.452/.515 after (.280/.395/.471)

Hauver is 26, doesn’t play center and isn’t hailed for his defensive prowess, so you’d might as well treat him like a first baseman in terms of how he’ll need to hit to get noticed. Also, elements of last year’s hot streak are unsustainable, like a .512 average on contact including a .372 average on exit velocities under 95. There’s almost nothing he could do to make the Opening Day roster. (I guess if he’s still slugging 2.000 a month from now, we can revisit.) Still, if can maintain a good portion of last year’s late improvement, he’s going to get noticed.

Elsewhere

OF Travis Jankowski signed a minor deal with the Cubs.

Reunions

RHP Luke Jackson (33 on Opening Day)
I saw Jackson’s sixth professional outing in person at Hickory, a five-inning, one-run, ten-strikeout performance against Yankees-affiliated Charleston. He was 19. I was not 19 and am now old enough to consider his current age of 33 young. To be honest, as he approached the Majors, he didn’t look like a great bet to reach eight years of service, but he’s achieved them with a mix of perseverance, occasional dominance, injuries, and some choppy seasons. When in form, his money pitch is a slider, which he didn’t throw as a Ranger, although his curve had enough tilt/bend to pass for one. Fittingly, his slider could pass for a (very hard) curve, as it doesn’t break much laterally but has an extra six to eight inches of drop versus the league average.

RHP Joe Barlow (29)
Barlow hasn’t pitched in the Majors since being designated for assignment and lost to Kansas City in August 2023. The Royals immediately optioned him to AAA Omaha and later snuck him through waivers. Barlow signed a minor deal with the White Sox last winter but spent much of the season on the shelf and was released from AAA Charlotte last July. Peak, healthy Barlow is a credible MLB reliever, if not a competitor for his former closing role. His likelihood of making the Opening Day roster is awfully slim, but regaining past form and a place near the front of the AAA depth line isn’t out of the question.

Trivia: Barlow is the only pitcher in MLB history with at least 20 saves and fewer than 80 career innings.

A Crowd

So, you’d like a job pitching in relief for the Texas Rangers. Take a number.

Texas has acquired six experienced free-agent relievers this offseason: Shawn Armstrong, Robert Garcia, Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb. Let’s assume all make the Opening Day active roster*, leaving only two open bullpen spots. Who are the contenders (besides you, of course)?

Assuming a rotation front-four of deGrom/Eovaldi/Mahle/Gray, Cody Bradford and Kumar Rocker are fighting for the final starting spot. Bradford is more likely to slide into a relief role if not in the rotation, while Rocker would probably head to Round Rock to continue in a starting role.

Texas has eight other relievers on the 40 with MLB experience: Marc Church, Dane Dunning, Gerson Garabito, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Walter Pennington, Daniel Robert and Cole Winn. All have options. Dunning finished 2024 in a ditch but has the lengthiest resume. I’d think Leiter is destined for Round Rock’s rotation unless his spring performance absolutely compels a big-league bullpen role. Among the others, Church has the most upside, and I’m sure the Rangers would love him to stake a claim immediately, as he nearly did last March. The remaining five fall into a different category, probably jockeying for first dibs on up-and-down roles and the chance to prove long-term inclusion.

Texas also has six in camp on minor deals who pitched in the Majors in 2024: Caleb Boushley, David Buchanan, Jesse Chavez, JT Chargois, Matt Festa and Adrian Houser.  The ageless Chavez enters as the favorite among this group, although Chargois also pitched well last year. As long as we’re here, we’d might as well toss in Barlow, ex-Cub Codi Heuer (hurt last year), and contenders already in the system like Robby Ahlstrom, Dane Acker and Skylar Hales.

Oh, Texas also has Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo on the 40. Both are nominal starters with no experience above AA, but with strong springs they could make some noise. Finally, the Rangers signed free-agent reliever Luis Curvelo straight to the 40, but he too has yet to reach AAA.  

So, 25 players (plus you) competing for two spots. That’s… that’s a lot. Every year, the Rangers (and everyone else) sign more players than they can possibly use, and every year I try to figure out who’ll be cut and who’ll be assigned where. This year, the task of assigning those last two bullpen spots and the 15-16 pitching spots in both AAA and AA will be as tough as any I can recall. Sure, some will hang around on the Injured List, but keep in mind that once the season starts, the Rangers will be limited to 165 domestic minor leaguers, and players on the ordinary (not 60-day or full-season) IL do count against that total.

Incidentally, “real” games commenced yesterday. In a 5-2 loss to the Royals, Dunning fanned two and allowed a hit in two scoreless innings. Garabito (1 H, 1 BB) and Ahlstrom (1 H, 1 SO) provided a scoreless single frames.

* Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball: “I’m not convinced both Webb and Armstrong make the roster.” Fair enough, but let’s just assume so for now, plus one extra spot doesn’t change the discussion that much.

Fifty

Adolis Garcia wants to hit fifty homers. Super. On Bluesky, I offered: “30 homers, a .320 OBP, and don’t run in on semi-sharp flies that end up one-hopping the wall. That’s about 3.5 wins. That’s the goal.”

On further review, that production doesn’t reach 3.5 wins above replacement, not without, say, 2023-level fielding or unforeseen improvement in contact. With 600 plate appearances, a .250/.320/.481 line, 30 homers, and league-average baserunning and fielding, he’ll land at around 2.8 WAR* (assuming run production inputs don’t change substantially from last year). That’s lower than what I suggested before doing the math but still a huge improvement over his roughly replacement-level 2024. I’d be thrilled.

For 3.5 WAR, he’d need an extra five homers (raising his slugging percentage to .509. approximating his previous best) plus a slightly above-average combo of running and fielding. Not likely, but not an absurd projection. If Garcia hits 50 homers and matches prior bests in average, doubles, walks, fielding and running, he’ll reach 6.7 WAR. Absurd, but a fun daydream.

If you peruse his statcast data, you can talk yourself into almost any outcome for 2025 (except maybe 6.7 WAR). His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barreling were still strong last year. He underperformed his expected production. His fielding outs above average fell from the 82nd percentile in 2023 to 1st (meaning last); surely a healthier knee will remedy that. Conversely, some players simply age poorly, and Garcia might be among them. At the least, it’s not unreasonable to discount his outlying 2023 (best OBP by 28 points, best slugging by 52) in any 2025 projection.

I am hopeful that Garcia can be at least good enough not to worry about. Something akin to 2022 at the plate plus adequate running and fielding would be worth a shade under two wins.

* I said 2.6 on Bluesky, but I’ve refined the calculations.

Elsewhere

The White Sox claimed RHP Owen White off waivers from the Yankees. In the span of three weeks, White’s Spring Training destination changed from Arizona to Florida to Arizona.

Ex-Rangers righty Mason Englert, designated for assignment by Detroit, was traded to Tampa Bay for high-A lefty Drew Sommers.

RHP Andrew Heaney signed a one year, $5 million contract with the Pirates. Pittsburgh also released RHP Yerry Rodriguez and designated RHP Brett de Geus for assignment. Rodriguez had signed early in the offseason.

Pitchers and catchers report today. The first official spring training game is in nine (!) days.

Speaking of pitchers, by my count, Texas has 58 healthy ones with experience at AA or higher, and the combined MLB/AAA/AA active rosters can only hold 45, give or take. The number fighting for these spots grows further with potential promotions from the lower minors, although at this point I’m not expecting many, as the Rangers already bumped several from Hickory to Frisco late last season.

I didn’t want a 4,000-word report last month, so I postponed reporting on all the recent minor league additions. Let’s get caught up. Given the 33-game spring schedule, I expect you’ll see many of these names in the boxes.

Incoming

RHP Tim Brennan (Age 28 on Opening Day)
Brennan re-signed after becoming a free agent. Texas’s 2018 seventh-rounder fell to an elbow injury in late 2022, and last season’s return was calamitous, to be frank (6.54 ERA, 83 baserunners in 42.2 AAA innings). His once-pinpoint control disappeared, and he isn’t the type who can whiff his way out of tense situations. With better control this spring, he should ably handle AA hitters if placed there or get another shot at AAA.  

RHP David Buchanan (35)
Drafted in 2009’s sixth round, Buchanan debuted strongly in the Majors in 2014, but by 2017 he’d begun the first of seven seasons in Japan or Korea. He returned to the US in 2024 and made one more MLB appearance. At no point in his career has he struck out many batters, so I’d expect an inning-eating AAA role.

RHP JT Chargois (34)
Chargois has bounced around six organizations plus Japan and was non-tendered in November despite solid if not flashy numbers produced by a 95 MPH sinker and mid-80s slider. The problem is multiple trips to the injured list the past three seasons including two terms on the 60-day IL. He’s a good signing and decent bet for another 30-40 MLB innings in Texas or elsewhere.  

RHP Jesse Chavez (41)
Did you know that Chavez relieved Bob Gibson in Game 1 of the 1964 World Series, the only postseason start of Gibson’s nine that didn’t result in a complete game? Okay, not quite true, but Rickey Henderson genuinely was still active when Chavez originally signed with Texas. That said, he’s as likely as anyone on this list to find himself in Arlington during 2025.

RHP Matt Festa (32)
DFA’ed and traded to the Cubs for cash last month, Festa was soon designated again, took free agency once unclaimed, and re-signed with the Rangers. Previously, I’d mentioned him as “a handy guy to stash in AAA if he hadn’t run out of options.” Now, Texas can stash away, although that absence of options precludes the up-and-down role for which he’s probably best suited.

RHP Peyton Gray (29)
A former Rockie, Royal and Red, the undrafted and oft-injured Gray has thrown only 155 summer innings in seven seasons, none in affiliated ball since 2021. Still, he’s pitched exceptionally well in winter ball lately, so at the least he’ll be worth a peek if you’re wandering the back fields next month.

RHP Nolan Hoffman (27)
A reliever since his time at TAMU, the now-27-year-old spent his first full season in AAA in 2024.  At Norfolk, he bumped his strikeout rate to 28% compared to the 22% of 2021-2023, but his walk rate nearly doubled. Hoffman deals a low-slot sinker and slider. Incidentally, Hoffman was the first pick in the 2021 minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, 28 selections before Robert Garcia.

RHP Hanser Lara (28)
He’s a veteran of sorts, having originally signed with KC nearly ten years ago but without a single appearance after 2018. In April of that year, he threw three scoreless innings against Hickory. An area scout filed a glowing report that night, and seven years later, Lara’s a Ranger. I’m sure that’s what transpired.

RHP Daniel Missaki (28)
Born in Japan. Brazil in the 2013 World Baseball Classic and a contract with Seattle. Milwaukee via trade in 2015. Two Tommy John surgeries. Three years of indy and farm ball back in Japan. A summer in Venezuelan. Last summer in Mexico and with the Cubs. Now a Ranger.

RHP Travis MacGregor (27)
Still awaiting the call, the Pittsburgh 2016 2nd-rounder impressed in the unfriendly confines of Salt Lake last year, posting a 3.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .248/.325/.367 line in long relief. He threw a four-seamer and sinker averaging around 94, an 88 cutter and 83 sweepy slider.

RHP Patrick Murphy (29)
In 2024, Murphy split time between the major and minor versions of Nippon Ham, actually pitching better at the higher level. Murphy offered a mid-90s fastball and low-80s curve while stateside during parts of 2020-2022.

C Tucker Barnhart (34)
Meet your third catcher. 34 next week, Barnhart has spent the last 11 years in the Majors, a primary backstop for eight. He hit well enough (for a catcher) much of that time but has posted a .208/.286/.255 line the past three seasons.

C Chad Wallach (33)
Wallach spent most of the past three seasons with the Angels, mostly in AAA. With the departures of Sam Huff and Matt Whatley, Texas didn’t have any AAA-ready catchers (excepting perhaps Cooper Johnson, who’s yet to play at that level but had a nice season at Frisco).

C Brandon Martorano (27)
An extra catcher for Frisco and/or Round Rock. Martorano spent several years in the San Francisco system and finished 2024 at indy Gastonia.

IF Nick Ahmed (35)
Ahmed has never posted a 100 OPS+ in 11 MLB seasons and sports a line of .221/.271/.327 over the past four years. So… why? Because even at 35 he provides a worthy up-the-middle glove. Still, for the first time in his career, finding a spot on an MLB roster is likely to require some time-biding in AAA, whether at Round Rock or elsewhere.

IF Jax Biggers (27)
Sooie. The 2018 eight-rounder from Arkansas rejoined the Rangers after becoming a free agent. Biggers doesn’t hit especially hard but is finely attuned to the robot-assisted strike zone of AAA, drawing a walk nearly one of every six times at the plate and reaching at a .390 clip in Round Rock.

IF Alex De Goti (30)
The former Astro split between Frisco and Round Rock last year.

IF Alan Trejo (28)
Trejo hit the cover off the ball in Albuquerque but struggled badly in Colorado (.228/.276/.334 across four seasons). Scaling high-altitude AAA stats to MLB remains impossible. He’s isn’t playing much shortstop nowadays, so he’d need several breaks to get a ticket to Arlington, especially with the signing of Ahmed.

OF Sam Haggerty (30)
Haggerty missed most of 2024 with an Achilles injury and was non-tendered by Seattle. Like Ahmed, he’ll need some fortune to return to MLB, although with his versatility he’s got a shot at a bench role. He’s spent a majority of his 202 MLB games in left but (especially in AAA) can play anywhere but catcher.

OF Cody Thomas (30)
The former OU QB was drafted by the Dodgers in 2016’s 13th round and reached the Majors briefly in 2022-2023, batting .250/.308/333 in 29 games with the Athletics. Thomas ventured to Japan last year but couldn’t gain a foothold, instead spending most of the season at Orix’s farm club. His AAA stats are inflated by Las Vegas, but he should offer some power for Round Rock and/or Frisco.

In Charge

Changes to the minor league coaching/development system were modest. All four full-season managers return: Doug Davis in AAA Round Rock, Carlos Cardoza in AA Frisco, Chad Comer in high-A Hub City, and Carlos Maldonado in low-A Hickory. Nick Janssen has replaced Guilder Rodriguez as the complex-league manager, with Rodriguez shifting to a bench role. At the full-season levels, the only coach new to the organization is AA bullpen coach Carson Phillips.

Jon Goebel, last year’s AA pitching coach, has graduated to AAA plus hold the title of upper-minors pitching coordinator. Last year’s AAA pitching coach, Dave Borkowski, remains in Round Rock as bullpen coach and would (I expect) simply be the pitching coach if/when Goebel’s duties require time away from the Express. Replacing Goebel in Frisco is Jose Jaimes, last year’s rookie-level pitching coach. Former pitching coordinator Jordan Tiegs is now the Texas bullpen coach.

Elsewhere

The Yankees claimed RHP Owen White off waivers from Cincinnati and re-designated him five days later. His status is pending. I suspect plenty of clubs would like an opportunity to right White’s ship but not at the expense of a 40 spot, even though he has an option.

The Rays designated IF Oslevis Basabe for assignment and traded him to San Francisco for cash. Barely four years after the Nathaniel Lowe trade, neither Texas nor Tampa has anyone from that swap in its organization.

Detroit designated RHP Mason Englert for assignment. After being swiped from the Rangers in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, Engert managed (barely) to stick the entire season in the Majors, posting a 5.46 ERA in 56 innings with a good walk rate and surfeit of homers. His 2024 yielded similar results, but he spent much of the season in the minors.  

The Marlins claimed RHP Ronny Henriquez off waivers from Minnesota. Henriquez had been outrighted and became a free agent after 2023 but re-signed with Twins and quickly regained an up-and-down relief role. Entering 2025, he’s out of options.

RHP Neftali Feliz signed a minor deal with Seattle. I thought I’d mentioned him previously, as news of his supposedly imminent signing broke well before by previous report, but I must have decided to wait until the move was official. Feliz last pitched in the US in 2021 and spent the last three seasons in Mexico. I did see a story about him with the clickbait headline “Former Rangers Star Signs Surprise New Deal That’ll Crush Texas Fans,” and… can we not, please? I’m not even dented, much less crushed, and honestly would be fine if he made the M’s roster. I would draw the line at him pitching well against the Rangers, however.

Other minor deals for players in the system last year: RHP Jonathan Hernandez (TAM), catcher Matt Whately (TOR), IF Jose Barrero (STL).

And deals for those from the more distant past: LHP Kolby Allard (CLE), RHP Alex Speas (MIN).

Round Rock Express Tickets

An acquaintance of mine runs an eight-way split of four excellent season tickets in the fourth row one section to the right of home plate. He is looking for one or more parties to join the group. If you’re interested, email me and I’ll give you his contact information.

Organization Info

A reminder than I keep lists of the 40-man roster, all stateside squad rosters, players who’ve left the organization, Rule 5 qualifications, and more here. I try to maintain them steadily but errors and omission occur, so feel free to point them out.

Social Media

I’ve posted less this winter than any in recent memory, and almost exclusively on Bluesky. For those who follow, I expect I’ll ramp up soon. As to whether I’ll double-post at X/Twitter and Bluesky, I haven’t decided. Regardless, this year I plan to emphasize getting worthwhile info into reports and not just social media, a task I’ve occasionally handled poorly.

Next

Top-100 lists, organization rankings, early thoughts.