Rangers Farm Report

I hope this email finds you well.

Since the week before Christmas, Iā€™ve been out of town more often than not and completely hamstrung by real-life work, so Iā€™ve been writing intermittently and saving a report for when I had time to edit an entire piece. (I didnā€™t actually have time for this but needed a break.)

So, letā€™s get caught up on the last five weeks.  

Incoming

DH/OF Joc Pederson (Age 32 on Opening Day)
The professional righty-killer and fashion icon brings his bat to Texas for anywhere from one to three seasons. Since 2022, heā€™s batted .267/.367/.503 against righties. Heā€™s also started a total of only 13 games against lefties and didnā€™t take the field at all in 2024, although heā€™s likely to play at least a little outfield in 2025. Pederson does at least reach base against lefties (.218/.351/.347 the last three years), but the absence of defensive starts is justified. He’s limited, sure, but what heā€™s good at is good indeed, and recall that Texasā€™s designated hitters batted .040 with three homers last year (Iā€™m going from memory).

D magazineā€™s Zach Crizer has a piece about him.

LHP Robert Garcia (28)
Quite the story. Drafted by Kansas City in 2017ā€™s 15th round (same as Ricky Vanasco), Garcia wasnā€™t even protected on an AAA roster, much less the 40, after five seasons. He had retired (absent the paperwork) when Miami claimed him deep within the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. He decided to continue pitching and remarkably made his MLB debut 20 months later. The Marlins would soon designate him for assignment during a brief period when they were actually trying, but the Nationals claimed him, and heā€™s been fairly successful ever since, leading to his trade for a productive 1B in the form of Nathaniel Lowe.

I say ā€œfairlyā€ successful because 2024 was a combination of amazing peripherals but ordinary run suppression. He posted a 7% BB/HBP rate, a reasonable four homers in 59.2 innings, and an opposing line of .237/.288/.323. His rates on hard hits, grounders and chases were exceptional. Somehow, he ended up with a 4.22 ERA and 5.13 RA. What gives? It comes down to what could be plausibly called luck, as Garcia was terrific with the bases empty (.194/.248/.226) but poor once anyone reached base (.287/.333/.435). The reasonable expectation is that those splits should converge some, reducing the number of runners crossing the plate.

Garcia delivers a low-slot mid-90s fastball notable more for horizontal movement than rise, a slider, and what was a highly effective changeup in 2024. Heā€™s under team control through 2029.

RHP Chris Martin (38) / LHP Hoby Milner (34) / RHP Shawn Armstrong (34)
After last season, Texasā€™s MLB-experienced bullpen arms consisted of Grant Anderson, Marc Church, Matt Festa, Gerson Garabito, Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington, Daniel Robert, an injured Josh Sborz, Owen White, and an injured Cole Winn, to which you could add Dane Dunning and maybe a couple of others whoā€™ve typically started but might not find room in the 2025 rotation. Some could be credible performers this season, but clearly the bullpen renovation project was large enough to require multiple city permits and a general contractor.

Martin resurrected his MLB career as a Ranger in 2018 and will likely finish it as one, as heā€™s said 2025 is almost certainly his final season. Heā€™ll turn 39 next season, and small indicators of decline abound, but nothing that suggests he canā€™t perform well.

LHP Mason Molina (21)
Molina is honestly a better return for the DFAā€™ed Grant Anderson than I expected, not in the teamā€™s top 30 but worthy of an honest recap in my daily reports. Milwaukee grabbed the Texas Tech and Arkansas alum in last yearā€™s seventh round. To date, Molina has relied heavily on a fastball that only runs around 90 but rises through bats. He adds an appealing traditional change and a couple of breakers that lag behind. He finished the season with a playoff appearance for high-A Wisconsin. That level seems an appropriate beginning to his 2025.

Outgoing (Trade)

1B Nathaniel Lowe
If you reviewed everything Iā€™ve written about Lowe, youā€™d wonder what I had against him. More than once, I compared him to Mitch Moreland, who deservedly occupies a revered place in Rangers history but was often just good enough to avoid being the offenseā€™s most pressing problem. Whenever Iā€™d speculate about the likelihood of Lowe being traded or even non-tendered as his salary increased, heā€™d enter a hot stretch and make me look foolish (which is fine). Lowe wasnā€™t a traditional basher, at least not for extended periods, but he provided on-base production for an offense that at times was desperately lacking. He was, at long last, the average-to-plus 1B Texas had sought since the trade of Mark Teixeira in 2007.

Among the top 30 players in plate appearances who spent at least 50% of their time at 1B during 2021-2024, Lowe ranked eighth in bWAR with 10.8, fifth in OBP (.359), third in walks (292), and 11th in homers (78).

Outgoing (DFA)

RHP Owen White
Toward the end of 2022, White recovered from forearm and neck trouble just in time to manhandle AA opposition in two postseason relief appearances. He was an unquestioned 40 addition and near-universally-regarded top-100 prospect. The next spring, after another neck issue, he didnā€™t look the same, and never has. Sad to say, for most of the past two seasons, he appeared unable to fill an up-and-down role, much less join a rotation. While he would make his MLB debut in June 2023, those circumstances leaned more toward immediate parent-club need than merit, as I mentioned at the time. In 2024, a bevy of minor league signings would graduate to the Majors while he stayed behind in Round Rock.

Switching to relief later in the season, White boosted his strikeout rate while suffering in other respects. The advanced stats shuffled around but didnā€™t indicate meaningful, positive change. His slider remained the most effective pitch, but he didnā€™t look the type to just run a four-seamer/slider combo past hitters. Indeed, Whiteā€™s repertoire had ballooned to six pitches in Round Rock, and even in relief he offered the full set. Should he get back on track, that diversity could serve him well.

White was traded to Cincinnati for cash. He remains on the 40-man roster and has an option in 2025.

C Sam Huff
Had I been able to write in a timelier fashion, I would have mentioned Huff surprisingly keeping his 40 spot at Whiteā€™s expense. Instead, he quickly suffered the same fate following the addition of Shawn Armstrong. Iā€™ve covered Huffā€™s situation for a while. His basic and under-the-hood stats declined markedly during the 2024 season; from June onward, he batted .233/.279/.377 with six homers in 73 games. On his fourth and final option, he clearly had not put himself in a position to claim the #2 catcher role next spring. Plainly put, the likelihood of him being on the 40 by the end of March was virtually zero.

Catchers take inordinate patience, and Huff may yet find a way into an MLB role. Whatever happens, the Rangers have shown the requisite patience and canā€™t be blamed if he does succeed elsewhere. Huff joined the organization nearly nine years ago and turns 27 in January. Huff was claimed by the Giants, who already had three catchers on the roster but designated backstop Blake Sabol soon after. Another DFA seems most likely, but for the moment heā€™s hanging on.

RHP Grant Anderson
Iā€™ve told this story before: Back in March 2019, I settled in to grab footage of several Texas hitting prospects in an intersquad against the Mā€™s, only to see some teal-jerseyed side-armer toy with them for sport. I was impressed. So were the Rangers, who would acquire him two weeks later for Connor Sadzeck. That side-armer would be McNeese St. alum Grant Anderson, drafted in 2018ā€™s 21st round.

Back to the present: Anderson still has an option. Given that the Brewers traded a recent pick who signed for slot (the aforementioned Molina) and DFAā€™ed someone else (former 1st-rounder Tyler Jay) to get him, Iā€™d guess they donā€™t intend a quick attempt to sneak him through waivers. Incidentally, Grantā€™s twin brother Aidan re-signed with the Rangers several weeks ago.

RHP Matt Festa
Festaā€™s peripherals outshone his 4.37 ERA, and he might have been a handy guy to stash in AAA if he hadnā€™t run out of options. Texas traded him to the Cubs for cash. So, for now, all four players Texas designated for assignment in the past few weeks remain on a 40-man roster. 

Internationals

Wednesday commenced signing day for international free agents. At least monetarily, Texas made a modest splash in the free-agent pool compared to many previous years. Dominican OF/IF Elorky Rodriguez is the priciest signing at $1.1 million, followed by 3B Jhon Simon of the DR at $500,000. MIF Hansel (son of Hanley) Ramirez signed, joining David Ortiz Jr. (who signed last August) and Pablo Guerrero as progeny of former baseball greats in the organization.

Elsewhere

OF Bubba Thompson has walked off the diamond and onto the University of South Alabamaā€™s football squad. In 2017, Thompson was a high school QB of some regard, although not enough to sway him from first-round money. With the Rangers, Thompsonā€™s improvement with the bat in 2021-2022 portended a fourth-outfielder role, but it didnā€™t translate to the Majors. After enduring five waiver claims in the span of six months, he finally passed through unclaimed and weirdly spent much of 2024 at AA Chattanooga, where he still suffered at the plate. Incidentally, USAā€™s head coach is Texas-Ex Major Applewhite.

Major deals: reliever Jose Leclerc (Athletics)

Minor deals: C Jorge Alfaro (Brewers), IF Yonny Hernandez (Mets), reliever CD Pelham (Athletics)

Rest in Peace

Rico Carty
Mike Cubbage
Bud Harrelson
Odell Jones
Hector Ortiz
Lenny Randle
Jim Umbarger

Up Next

Iā€™ll circle back with Texasā€™s minor league signings, staffing, and five strategies for getting better responses to your marketing emails. Yours faithfully, Scott.

New Signings, Rule 5 Results, Other Comings and Goings

Burger

Late last night, the Rangers acquired 28-year-old 1B/3B Jake Burger from the Marlins for IF Echedry Vargas, IF Max Acosta and LHP Brayan Mendoza. Burger is heroic when he makes contact, clubbing 63 homers and slugging .488 the past two seasons. He hits the ball in the air, hard. He destroys fastballs.

Most else about his game is neutral or worse, chipping at the value created by that contact. He hits for an acceptable average but doesnā€™t walk much. His career strikeout rate is a lofty 28%. Burger hardly ever steals but grades out surprisingly well in terms of sprint speed and advanced baserunning stats. Burger isnā€™t a good defender and in 2024, for the first time, spent more days at first or DH than at third. That said, he provides insurance for Josh Jung, whoā€™s been limited to 168 games the last two seasons.

Burger has averaged between 1.5 and 1.8 WAR per season the last two years, depending on source. ā€œAverage regularā€ is a reasonable if perhaps slightly generous description. Last year, Texasā€™s crowded caravan of DHs (18 of them, none with more than 25 games) batted a lowly .204/.263/.322, so Burger certainly represents a significant upgrade even without much defensive value. He was five days shy of qualifying for Super 2 arbitration status. Heā€™ll make close to the minimum in 2025 and can become a free agent after 2028.

Barring further moves (and Iā€™m expecting further moves), Burgerā€™s acquisition would appear to reduce the upside in Ezequiel Duranā€™s possible playing time, although Duran can man the outfield. Also, whatever small chance 2020 first-rounder Justin Foscue had of making the club out of spring training has dwindled to nothing. Although surely better than his .048/.091/.071 line in 15 MLB games, Foscue hasnā€™t had a landing spot in Arlington for some time and at this point will really have to force the issue in AAA.

I kind of fell in love with Vargas last March in Surprise. After watching him repeatedly bruise the ball every which way, I couldnā€™t fathom that he fanned in 24% of his rookie-level plate appearance, and he rewarded me with a 21% rate at low-A in 2024. As a 19-year-old in a tough park and league for batters, he hit .276/.321/.454 including a stellar .310/.352/.508 on the road. On the downside, he simply stopped walking midway through the year (five in his last 49 games), didnā€™t hit lefties, and committed 27 errors in 86 games at short.

Since around August, Iā€™ve written about middle infielder Max Acosta as much as anyone in the system. In mid-July, he began hitting with unprecedented prowess. He continued to rake in the Arizona Fall League, and the available Statcast data confirmed his .338/.413/.521 line wasnā€™t a desert mirage. During the summer, Iā€™d offhandedly suggested that Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo would be Texasā€™s only 40 additions come fall, but Acosta insisted on joining those two.

The 20-year-old Mendoza hasnā€™t (too my knowledge) received any ink in national publications but was among a group of Down East youngsters who toyed with Carolina League batters before moving on. Heā€™s more than organizational filler. I cause myself trouble trying to rank prospects ordinally but after a momentā€™s thought decided ā€œheā€™s probablyā€¦ somewhereā€¦ in the 40s.ā€ Jamey Newberg ranked him 37th in early August. In an August start, Mendoza offered a 90-94 fastball that sat mostly 92-93, a breaker that veered from slurvy 80 to sweepy 86, and a mid-80s change that he wasnā€™t afraid to employ liberally.

Four years ago, Texas traded OF/ā€Cā€ Heriberto Hernandez, IF Osleivis Basabe and OF Alexander Ovalles to Tampa Bay for 1B Nathaniel Lowe. I didnā€™t hate the trade but was uneasy, as Hernandez and Basabe were very much on the rise, plus the penny-pinching Rays were trading the minimum-making Lowe in favor of arbitration-eligible Jiman Choi. Certainly, that trade has worked out terrifically for the Rangers. The point is that Tampa Bay acquired some valuable prospects who ultimately have provided negligible value in the MLB level, limited to 31 light-hitting games from Basabe in 2023. The other two are out of the organization.

Iā€™m not claiming that will reoccur in the Burger trade, but thereā€™s a decent chance. Vargasā€™s inaugural full season was impressive, but Iā€™m not sure where he lands defensively. Acostaā€™s late-2024 upsurge appears legitimate, but is he more than a role player? Mendoza has a shot, too, but also scant experience above low-A.  

Nate


Scoutā€™s honor: I heard the Max Fried news (8 years and $218 million) while in my car yesterday and mumbled ā€œEovaldiā€™s getting $25 per.ā€ Not long after, news came of his three-year $75 million contract. I should take the memory card out of my dashcam and save that moment for posterity. Too much money? Maybe, bordering on probably, but thatā€™s the market, which as a whole has shrugged off the turmoil in local television contracts. Eovaldi will turn 35 before throwing his next regular-season pitch, but his stuff and location have aged admirably. A notable exception is the vertical break on his fastball, which dipped into warning territory in 2024, but opponents slugged only a modest .335 against it.

Webb


Texas also signed RHP Jacob Webb to a one-year deal. Baltimore had non-tendered the arbitration-eligible 31-year old whoā€™d made an even million in 2024. Webb deals a 93ish fastball, low-to-mid-80s slider, and an especially effective mid-80s change.

Rule Five Results

The Rangers didnā€™t take or lose anyone in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft. In a modest surprise, the second overall pick was former Rangers catcher Liam Hicks, traded in July with RHP Tyler Owens for Tigers catcher Carson Kelly. Detroit added Owens to the 40 had declined to add Hicks. I seriously doubt the Rangers would have protected Hicks had he remained in the organization. Hicks has negligible power but makes contact and draws a zillion walks.

Texas also didnā€™t select a player in the minor league phase. The Rangers lost RHP Ricky Devito to Miami. Now 26, Devito struck out 30% of his AA opponents last year but also walked or hit an astounding 24%.

Baseball Americaā€™s initial list of ā€œplayers to knowā€ in the Rule 5 draft included two Rangers, 1B Blaine Crim and LHP Bryan Magdaleno, but neither ranked among ā€œplayers most likely to get picked.ā€ BA offered Oaklandā€™s Ryan Noda as a template for Crim (as did I in my preview), and suggested Magdaleno could be seen as a low risk with high upside. In a subsequent update, BA added 1B Abi Ortiz as a draft possibility. All remain with the organization.

Tendered

Non-tender day (Nov 22nd) was such a snooze that I didnā€™t bother to file a report. Texas offered everyone a contract and signed pitchers Dane Dunning and Josh Sborz to team-friendly deals. Sborz will miss at least a third of the season after shoulder surgery.

Gone


OF Sandro Fabian
Japanā€™s Hiroshima club has signed Fabian to a three-year, $5.8 million contract. That Fabian is headed overseas isnā€™t a surprised, but I wouldnā€™t have expected such a long and lucrative deal. Fabian made his MLB debut with the Rangers in his ninth professional season, going hitless in five at-bats. He hit 56 homers and 88 other extra-base hits in three seasons in Texasā€™s minor league system.

Here

RHP Adrian Houser (age 31)
Houser is both a former Sooner and Astro, but letā€™s give him a chance. He started 97 games and appeared in 23 others for the Brewers during 2019-2023, posting a 4.04 ERA with between 3.4 and 6.2 total WAR depending on source. Unfortunately, after a trade to the Mets, Houser belly-flopped in his walk year, losing his rotation spot by mid-May and MLB job by late July. House relies on a low-to-mid-90s sinker plus a four-seamer, slider, change and curve. 2024 notwithstanding, Houser is a fine depth signing, someone who conceivably could start some games for the Rangers if he bounces back.

RHP Caleb Boushley (31)
Bousley has sipped coffee with the Brewers and Twins the past two seasons. Heā€™s also averaged nearly 130 minor league innings the past four seasons, and my guess is heā€™ll be last yearā€™s Adrian Sampson, a Triple A inning-eater. And, if the cards fall just right, some swing innings in Arlington.

RHP Bryce Bonnin (26)
A litany of injuries (mostly shoulder) and covid have limited the ex-Red Raider to just 216 innings in seven seasons since graduating high school. Cincinnati flat-out released him last March, less than four years after his selection in the 2020ā€™s third round. He joined the Red Sox and was his usual high-strikeout, high-walk self. He sports a mid-90s heater and low-80s slider.

LHP Michael Plassmeyer (28)
At his best, Plassmeyer befuddles hitters with his control and command and will amass respectable strikeout totals despite an upper-80s fastball augmented with a sweeper and change. Plassmeyer reached the Majors briefly in 2022 and 2023, walking just one in 11 innings but surrendering hits of all varieties at an alarming rate. Iā€™d expect a swing role in Round Rock.

RHP Mailon Felix (25)
The Dominican has never pitched professional in the western hemisphere to my knowledge, although he did sign a contract with a Dominican Winter League club. Felix spent the last three seasons with the farm club of Japanā€™s Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.

Back

RHP Aidan Anderson (27)
Grantā€™s brother, homer-prone but throws strikes.

RHP Reid Birlingmair (28)
Generated a little heat as a possible MLB contender, but AAA hitters have confounded him to date.

RHP Codi Heuer (28)
A capable reliever for both Chicago teams in 2020-2021, Heuer has thrown only 12 (minor league) innings the past three seasons.

RHP Steven Jennings (26)
Like Anderson above, solid in AA, homer-prone with Round Rock.

C Cooper Johnson (26)
Has quietly developed into a power hitter. 10 homers in college, nine in his first four pro seasons, 14 in 2024 with AA Frisco.

IF Keyber Rodriguez (24)
Rodriguez is the only player on this list who originally signed with Texas. His OBP tailed off in AA, but heā€™s versatile ad still fairly young.

OF Luis Mieses (24)
Mieses  signed with Texas last year after becoming a free agent out of the White Sox system. He doesnā€™t run or walk but provides average and power with the bat.

Elsewhere


Catcher Jorge Alfaro signed with Dominican Winter League club Licey recently but has yet to appear. Now 31, Alfaro didnā€™t play during the 2024 regular season after being released by the Cubs in late March.

RHP Spencer Howard signed with Japanā€™s Rakuten Eagles. Howard returned to MLB with both the Giants and Guardians since leaving Texas but didnā€™t create the type of resume that would garner more than a non-roster invite in the US. To be honest, his stats appear light for Japan as well, but weā€™ll see.

OF/DH Heriberto Hernandez, part of the aforementioned Lowe trade, became a free agent after playing out his contract and signed a minor deal with the Marlins.  

OF Nick Solak signed a minor deal with Pittsburgh.

Social Media Reminder

Lately, Iā€™ve been providing social media updates atĀ Bluesky.Ā 

Texas Rangers 40-Man Additions

40-Man Additions

Added to the 40-man roster are RHP Winston Santos, RHP Emiliano Teodo, and IF Max Acosta.

I wouldnā€™t call any omission a huge surprise, although I had talked myself into believing the Rangers would select LHP Bryan Magdaleno, who had been awarded the organizationā€™s Reliever of the Year. Also available in the upcoming Rule 5 draft will be righties Dane Acker and Josh Stephan and first baseman Abi Ortiz and Blaine Crim, Defender of the Year IF Cody Freeman, and many more.

The Rangers also returned RHP Carson Coleman to the Yankees. Texas had nabbed him in last yearā€™s Rule 5 draft about halfway through recovery from Tommy John. A setback prevented him from pitching at all in 2024.

The 40-man roster has 39 players at present. The non-tender deadline is Friday.

Elsewhere

Detroit selected RHPs Chase Lee and Tyler Owens, both acquired from the Rangers last summer as part of trades for reliever Andrew Chafin and catcher Carson Kelly, respectively. I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Lee’s addition based on how he performed in Texas, but he did improved his strikeout and walk rates in AAA Toledo. Texas had acquired Owens for OF JP Martinez last winter. He’s pitched well in AA Frisco but I honestly hadn’t watched him carefully enough to develop much of an opinion. Catcher Liam Hicks and RHP Joseph Montalvo, two others Texas shipped in those trades, were not selected. Detroit also designated for assignment former Rangers RHP Ricky Vanasco.

St. Louis picked the contract of RHP TK Roby, who would have been eligible for the R5 if unprotected. He joins a 40 already containing fellow trade acquisition IF Thomas Saggese, who made his MLB debut in September. Roby missed much of 2024 with a shoulder malady and hasnā€™t advanced beyond the AA level reached with Texas.

Pittsburgh signed RHP Yerry Rodriguez to a minor deal. Atlanta signed IF Charles Leblanc and C Yohel Pozo but released Pozo a couple of days later.  

Texas Rangers 40-Man Deadline Preview

On Tuesday, the Rangers and their competition must update their 40-man rosters in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft. This eligibility period fully incorporates the covid-shortened 2020 draft, which when combined with limits on the domestic roster leaves the Rangers with a smaller pool than usual. By my count, Texas has only 16 first-time eligibles, two fewer than last year.

I have an unofficial table of eligible players under the ā€˜Rule 5ā€ tab. The second and third columns are what matters. Players in the second column have been through this process at least once before, while those in the third are eligible for the first time.

The Rangers have 37 players on the 40 as of Monday night. Are the Rangers facing a severe roster crunch? I donā€™t think so, even with signings of Major League free agents needed as well. I see a decent number of potential removal candidates. The Rangers canā€™t go hog-wild but shouldnā€™t have trouble finding spots for who they want. Ā 

Hereā€™s a summary of clear additions, question marks, and some players who have minimal chance of being selected but deserve a mention.

RHP Winston Santos
A lock. Santos struggled at times upon promotion to AA, but the stuff is there and would easily translate to a short/swing role on a Major League staff.

RHP Emiliano Teodo
Should you be concerned about his stamina and control precluding a starting role in the Majors? Sure. Should you be concerned about whether heā€™ll be protected? No.

IF Max Acosta
Acostaā€™s prospect status peaked the day he was signed in 2019 and had slowly waned since, until recently. Had I written this preview in mid-July, Iā€™d have offered an easy ā€œnoā€ plus a sentence or two about him getting by as 21-year-old in AA and still having a shot. Through July 9, Acosta was batting .245/.307/.345, essentially meeting expectations given his age and history. Thenceforth, he hit .326/.389/.505 during the regular season plus .338/.413/.521 in the Arizona Fall League. The underlying metrics were impressive, not mere Arizona flattery. Among 46 hitters with at least 25 balls in play, Acosta ranked third with a median exit velocity of 96.9 MPH. He also walked more and struck out less. As ever, he can run and play short. He seems to have taken a step forward lengthy enough for the Rangers to upgrade their commitment.

LHP Bryan Magdaleno

During a June business trip to DC, I headed south to Fredericksburg to watch Alejandro Rosarioā€™s final low-A start. I was also treated to lefty Bryan Magdaleno, signed in late 2019 as an 18-year-old but still lacking much experience outside the complex entering 2024. He straightforwardly mowed down a side with a 96-98 fastball and slider. As it transpired, I was witness to Game 3 of a 20-game scoreless streak (excluding one extra-inning unearned run), during which Magdaleno allowed three hits in 25 innings, walked or hit 11, and struck out 41 (47% rate). He finished the season in AA Frisco as high-leverage reliever, although his lone playoff appearance ended the scoreless streak. Could Magdaleno could withstand constant exposure to MLB hitters in March? Maybe not, but finding out the hard way wouldnā€™t be fun.

1B Abimelec Ortiz
Through July 9 (same as Acosta), Ortiz was batting .183/.259/.306 with five homers (1.9% rate). Unlike Acosta, expectation were decidedly unmet. Thenceforth, he hit .321/.416/.611 with 15 homers (6.6% rate). In the second game of the Texas League semifinals, he delayed Friscoā€™s elimination for a day with a two-out, two-strike, game-tying 9th-inning homer followed by an extra-inning walk-off sac fly.

Best as I can tell, only four first basemen have been selected in the last ten Rule 5 drafts, and the only two to last the season at the MLB level were Ryan Noda and Mark Canha, both with the Aā€™s, the latter as a LF nearly half the time. With slight unease, I feel Texas will expose him despite his resurgence.

RHP Josh Stephan
Stephan excelled in the Arizona Fall League after a second-straight injury-shorted regular season. Enough to warrant a 40 spot? Stephan has a fine slider (22% miss rate overall, 40% of swings in the AFL) and solid control, but starting in the Majors next March would be a huge ask, and his overall repertoire doesnā€™t migrate to a pen role as easily as the other pitchers Iā€™ve mentioned. I lean toward Stephan sneaking through the process unprotected and unclaimed, even after the additional exposure in Arizona.

1B Blaine Crim
Another turnaround! Crim batted .215/.323/.351 through June, .324/.424/.600 the rest of the way. Crimā€™s metrics were swell even during his slump, and late in the season he received attention from some nationally oriented prospect writers (here and here). Through six professional seasons including 280 games in AAA, Crim has always hit. He doesnā€™t run at all and has zero positional flexibility, so the question is whether heā€™d hit enough to make an impact in the Majors as a first baseman, particularly as a Rule 5 pick who couldn’t be optioned. If heā€™s not starting, what is his role? A right-handed bench bat, in 2025, when organizations value flexibility seemingly more than ever?

I truly hope Crim gets the chance to prove himself, in Texas or elsewhere, but I donā€™t know that itā€™s occurring through this Rule 5 process.

RHP Dane Acker
Tricky. In 2024, Acker improved his control from poor to passable while fanning one-quarter of his AA opponents. Converted to long (but still meaningful) relief in August, at least for the interim, Acker pitched even better. I guess the problem is upside. If an opposing GM doesnā€™t see a starter or at least a 7th-inning role, why not just bring another relief NRI to camp instead of bothering with the Rule 5 process?

IF Cody Freeman
Despite no longer playing catcher, Freeman improved his standing with a career year at the plate and strong defense at third (and second). Iā€™ve seen positive reviews offering a future utility role, perhaps even a busy one. Still, I donā€™t think heā€™s there yet, and I think heā€™ll pass through untouched.

RHP Ryan Garcia

Garciaā€™s 2023 was ugly, to be frank, such that I thought he might not be in the organization in 2024. Instead, he took advantage of a second turn through AA and then pitched well in eight AAA starts. Garcia could stand to improve his control a little more, but his well-rounded repertoire kept hitters off-balance and prevented excessive hard contact. Heā€™s fly-prone but seemingly has a knack for inducing the sky-high types which cause no damage. Some eyewitness scout or video analyst saw him on a good day and filed a promising report, but I doubt heā€™d be selected.

LHP Robby Ahlstrom
Ahlstrom pitched capably in AAA, albeit with a few more walks than youā€™d like, but doesnā€™t stand out enough to warrant the hassle of Rule 5 restrictions. In 2025, if heā€™s the hot hand when a Texas reliever suffers an injury or one too many poor outings, he could get the call.

OF Kellen Strahm
Strahm finally reached AAA after more than two years in Frisco and performed admirably. He can run, cover center, take a pitch, drive one occasionally. Good depth, as it stands.

OF Trevor Hauver
The lone prospect in the Joey Gallo trade yet to reach the Majors, Hauver stormed through the final month in AAA (.384/.500/..717) after a difficult four-plus months (.193/.303/.311). He won’t be selected, but he has that nice finish to build on in 2025.

RHP Aidan Curry
A recent MLB.com story listed Curry as Texasā€™s toughest 40 decision. I wouldnā€™t make that claim.Ā  A 40-spot contender entering 2024, Curry finished June with equal numbers of innings and runs allowed. He has a promising arsenal and improved overall down the stretch (albeit with worse control), but at present weā€™re talking someone whoā€™s yet to retire high-A batters with any consistency. In a perfect world, heā€™s next yearā€™s Winston Santos.
ā€ƒ
Arizona Fall League Championship
Surprise fell to Salt River 3-2, preventing a third consecutive championship for the Texas-aligned squad. Shortstop Max Acosta singled twice to drive in both Saguaro runs and walked. In the 1st, he lined 106 MPH to left to bring in KCā€™s Jac Caglianone. Acostaā€™s infield single plated Chase DeLauter in the 5th. Cleanup hitter and CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3 with two meaningful walks, both extending the inning with two outs to set up Acostaā€™s singles. Alas, with two aboard and two out in the 9th, he couldnā€™t quite beat the throw on a chopped grounder.

Three of the four Surprise pitchers were Rangers. Josh Stephan drew the start, lasting four-plus innings with six hits, three runs, a walk and four strikeouts. Stephanā€™s heavy dose of sliders was effective, but Salt River found some success against his sinker and change.

Skylar Hales replaced Stephan after a leadoff walk in the 5th and proceeded to walk two more before settling down. A double-play grounder scored what turned out to be the winning run. Opponents whiffed on four of five swings against his mid-90s fastball. Marc Church was dominant, which is what youā€™d hope for given his ascent to the Majors last this season. He fanned three in two perfect innings, generating nine swinging strikes out of 13 swings.

Social
Lately, Iā€™ve been providing social media updates at Bluesky. A good number of baseball-fixated media and other contributors have migrated to the site and are posting enough to make it worth your time if youā€™re into that sort of thing. Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball has created a ā€œstarter packā€ of Rangers-oriented writers (14 of them, last I checked, including me) that you can follow in one click or choose individually.

Rangers Farm Report

Arizona Fall League

Letā€™s check in on the Texas hitters:
IF Max Acosta: 17 games, .307/.394/.484, six doubles, one triple, one homer, eight steals
IF Cody Freeman: 18 games, .308/.416/.508, seven doubles, two homers
OF Alejandro Osuna: 22 games, .314/.449/.477, eight doubles, two homers, 20 walks (!)

All are to be commended for their terrific performances so far, but location plays a sizable role. Teams are averaging 6.4 runs per game with a line of .271/.375/.434. For the first time, we have Statcast data for the majority of parks (including Surprise, hallelujah), and comparison to the high-octane AAA Pacific Coast League confirms the silliness of the environment.

Median exit velo: PCL 89.9, AFL 92.6
90th-percentile exit velo: PCL 103.1, AFL 105.6
Hard-hit rate (95+ MPH): 35% PCL, 44% AFL

Balls are also traveling airborne an extra 10-15 feet depending on the type of measurement.

The good news is the Rangers hitters have acquitted themselves well even relative to the environment. Acosta has a median exit velocity of 96.1 MPH, seventh-best among hitters with at least 20 balls in play, and his 90th-percentile velo is 104.9. Freeman has a strong median velo that tapers to below-average at the top, while Osunaā€™s median is near the middle, but his 90th-percentile velo is 106.6. Acosta and Freeman are among Texasā€™s impending 40-man decisions, while Osuna has another year.

Location explains part of the inflated offensive figures. The other is personnel. Opening Day rosters featured 14 of MLB.comā€™s top 100 prospects. All 14 were hitters. MLB.com ran a story on the top participating prospect from each team. 27 of 30 were hitters. One can find exceptions, but on the whole, elite pitching prospects and/or those with sizable regular-season workloads are absent. Of Surpriseā€™s 25 pitchers to appear so far, only five threw more than 58 innings. The league walk rate of 13.2% is higher than any domestic league in 2024, including the rookie levels.

As for Texasā€™s pitchers:
Marc Church: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB+HBP, 9 SO, 200/.238/.350 oppo line
Skylar Hales: 13.50 ERA, 4.2 IP, 13 H, 3 BB+HBP, 5 SO, .520/.533/.600
Leandro Lopez: 6.19 ERA 16 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 12 BB+HBP, 20 SO, .292/.397/.462
Josh Stephan: 2.25 ERA, 20 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 7 BB+HBP, 21 SO, .200/.268/.280
Avery Weems: 1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB+HBP, 9 SO, .250/.308/.375

Hales is an outlier in this group, and I donā€™t mean his ERA. The AFL is often where pitchers find extra live action after missing time to injury, but Hales was one of Texasā€™s busier relievers in 2024. Had I conjured a list of 8-10 potential Texas pitchers for the AFL, I doubt heā€™d have been on it. Iā€™m not suggesting heā€™s tired or that the assignment was a bad idea. I have no direct knowledge. His control has been adequate, and the only extra-base hits are two doubles, but opponents are hitting a garish .591 on balls in play. Maybe some bad luck. Maybe a little tiredness.

The 22-year-old Lopez missed most of 2024 to injury, has scant experience above low-A, and tends to be walk-prone even in the best of times, so Iā€™m honestly pleased with what heā€™s accomplished. Lopez has a full repertoire led by a splendid curve and mid-90s heater. A project worth watching.

Stephan is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. Heā€™s a back-of-rotation type who doesnā€™t strike me as someone whoā€™d be nabbed, but Iā€™ve been wrong before. In any case, the recent performances are heartening. Injuries have limited him to under 70 innings in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. Weems will be R5-eligible as well, unless protected, but at the not-so-tender age of 27, heā€™s trying to regain his footing after missing 2023 and most of 2024 to elbow surgery. Heā€™s under control to the Rangers for another season.

Here’s the average and maximum pitch velocities for the Texas contingent. Note that not every game has data, so the actual performances could vary:



In the Fall Stars game last Saturday, Marc Church earned the save in a 6-5 win for the American League, nipping the outside edge on a slider for a game-ending strike. CF Alejandro Osuna was 0-3. A fly off just off the sweet spot and a little underneath fell just short of the fence. SS Max Acosta entered mid-game and was 0-2.

Also participating in the league are former Rangers RHP Zak Kent (CLE), RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (CHW) and IF Thomas Saggese (STL).

Departed

These Texas minor leaguers became free agents recently:
LHP Grant Wolfram (AAA)
RHP Kyle Barraclough (AAA)
RHP Tim Brennan (AAA)
RHP Shane Greene (AAA)
RHP Damian Mendoza (everywhere)
RHP DJ Peters (hi-A)
RHP Adrian Sampson (AAA)
RHP Peter Solomon (AAA)
RHP Tyler Zombro (AAA)
C Jesus Moreno (low levels)
C Matt Whatley (AAA)
IF Jose Barrero (AAA)
IF Jax Biggers (AAA)
IF Alex De Goti (AAA)
OF Luis Mieses (AA)

Biggers, Brennan and Wolfram were 2018 picks whoā€™d played out their renewal options. IF Frainyer Chavez was drafted the same year but doesnā€™t appear as a free agent for reasons unknown to me. A few other Rangers also should have become free agents by my reckoning, but either Iā€™m wrong, they did and already re-signed, or they did and simply donā€™t appear on the transaction list yet.

Incidentally, Jose Leclercā€™s free agency leaves none in the organization from the 2010-2011 World Series years. Leclerc signed in December 2010. The longevity title has passed to OF Leody Taveras, signed July 2015.

Some familiar free agents from other teams:
LHP Kolby Allard (PHI), LHP Brady Feigl (PIT), LHP Kolton Ingram (SFO), LHP CJ Widger (SEA), RHP Shaun Anderson (MIA), RHP Nabil Crismatt (SDP), RHP Alisson del Orbe (SEA, an infielder as a Ranger), RHP Robert Dugger (OAK), RHP Carl Edwards Jr., RHP Kevin Gowdy (LAD), RHP Jonathan Hernandez (SEA), RHP Spencer Howard, RHP Luis Ortiz (PHI), RHP Yerry Rodriguez (TOR), RHP Connor Sadzeck (PIT), RHP Nick Snyder (PHI), RHP Alex Speas (BOS), RHP Drew Strotman (SFO)

C Andrew Knizner (ARI), C Kevin Plawecki (SDP), C Yohel Pozo (OAK), IF Jose Acosta (MIL), IF Brendon Davis (LAD), IF Mark Mathias (CIN), OF JP Martinez (ATL), OF Nick Solak (SEA), OF Zach Reks (SDP), OF Bubba Thompson (CIN)

Not-So-Super Two

Among players with at least two but fewer than three years of service time, the most-experienced 22% qualify for an extra year of arbitration. The cutoff for 2024 was set at two years, 132 days of service time. Falling three days short: infielder Josh Smith.

Thatā€™s unfortunate for him. By my rough guess, he would have at least doubled his pay. To be clear, the Rangers did not manipulate his service time to forestall a larger salary. Smithā€™s contract was purchased at the end of May 2022 to replace an injured Brad Miller. Smith would be optioned in August but recalled after 19 days. He received full MLB credit for those 19 days; an option period of 20 or more days would have meant zero credit. He then spent the entirety of 2023 and 2024 on the MLB roster. Two years and 129 days would have been enough to qualify in all of the previous four years. He was just unlucky.

Just before I hit the post button, the Rangers announced Smith won the Silver Slugger award at the utility position. That would’ve played well at an arbitration hearing.

Elsewhere

Interleague play is coming to Triple A! Sort of. In 2025, Round Rock will open its home schedule against the International Leagueā€™s Toledo (DET), visit Charlotte (CHW) in May, and head to St. Paul (MIN) in August.

Sugar Land has two interleague series, both on the road. The recently re-nicknamed Oklahoma City Comets have one at Memphis. Las Vegas will host Iowa (CHC), and Salt Lake will welcome Omaha (KAN).

And thatā€™s it. The other five PCL teams and 14 of the 20 IL teams will play a standard schedule. As to why Round Rock will have 18 interleague games while 19 other AAA teams have none, I couldnā€™t begin to guess.

Incidentally, the schedule structure of the AAA Sacramento RiverCats hasnā€™t changed despite sharing their home with The Athletics. Instead, MLB successfully shoehorned the Aā€™s into the minor leaguesā€™ week-at-home, week-away format, so the two clubs wonā€™t be fighting over lockers on any given day. The Aā€™s host the Rangers in late April and the close of August. Also, Sacramento surprisingly had the most pitcher-friendly park in the PCL during the past three seasons, so it shouldnā€™t be another Rockies-type location, which would have been the case had the Aā€™s made their  ā€œtemporaryā€ home in Summerlin (outside Vegas), where their AAA affiliate plays.

The website of the defunct Down East Wood Ducks is also defunct. The site of the new Hub City Spartanburgers is fully active and integrated into the MiLB framework. Hub City will be Texasā€™s high-A affiliate in 2025, while Hickory will drop back to low-A, the position occupied from 2009 through 2019.

Social Butterfly

Some of you follow me on Twitter/X. I donā€™t post frequently in the offseason, but lately, Iā€™ve been doing so on Bluesky. Iā€™ve had an account there for over a year, but the network effects have been wanting. More recently, baseball-related content has improved considerably. Will Bluesky replace Twitter/X outright as the premier microblogging site? Probably not, but it might become a worthy alternative. Hereā€™s my account.

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Rangers Prospect Review

I actually began a prospect review in late May but was tempering so many observations with ā€œitā€™s only been two monthsā€ that I decided to wait until the All-Star break. Then, I discovered covering 20 draft picks and 30 prospects at the same time was a bad idea, and then I simply fell behind. So, at long last, hereā€™s my review of the preseason top 30 prospects as selected by MLB Pipeline. I chose Pipeline not necessarily because theyā€™re the market standard but because theyā€™re free, and I can republish the list without undercutting someoneā€™s subscription model.

1. Evan Carter (MLB No. 5), OF
Grade: Down Slightly

I hope I roll my eyes at this grade in a year. I canā€™t help some concern about his back, both in terms of keeping him out of the lineup and limiting his upside when available.

2. Wyatt Langford (MLB No. 6), OF
Even

Iā€™m sticking to my draft form two months ago, when Langford was batting .222/.288/.286: ā€œEh, Iā€™m not worried. As an aside, Langfordā€™s early struggles oddly confirm my love of baseball. A top draft pick can storm through the minors, reach the Majors at nearly unprecedented speed, andā€¦ not be all that good. Back-end starters and up-and-down relievers are like ā€˜congrats on the signing bonus but this ainā€™t the SEC.ā€™ ā€œ

3. Sebastian Walcott (MLB No. 68), SS
Up Slightly

Up slightly, not simply ā€œup,ā€ because he was already regarded so highly. Heā€™s striking out more than league average, but as Iā€™ve mentioned recently, heā€™s also occasionally shown some impressive coverage against breaking pitches. All of his slash stats are above the league rates, and we occasionally receive reports of electric exit velocities. Defense is a work in progress, and perhaps shortstop isnā€™t his future, but given the hyper-aggressive assignment, heā€™s truly impressed.

4. Brock Porter (MLB No. 85), RHP
Down

Neither of Porterā€™s two spring trainings were encouraging, but in 2023 he quickly rounded into form and entered this seasonā€™s camp as arguably Texasā€™s best pitching prospect. This time, the early woes persisted into the regular season, and after a lengthy layoff, Porter returned to action in the complex league but walked or hit nearly 30% of his opponents. Some have asked me about a comparison to Cody Buckel, a once-solid prospect who essentially awakened one day unable to throw strikes and never fully recovered. I wouldnā€™t go that far, not yet. First, Porterā€™s control has always lagged, whereas Buckel reached his peak as a control/command type. Second, I personally havenā€™t seen Porter miss as frequently and as far off-target as Buckel at his nadir. Regardless, the situation is deeply concerning.

5. Justin Foscue, 2B/3B
Even or Down Slightly, you decide

The problem isnā€™t anything heā€™s done but what and how heā€™s missed. Across four seasons, heā€™s landed on the IL five times as a professional, thrice for an oblique injury. One was so minor as to barely register, but still, he now has what qualifies as a history. Also, had he been healthy and playing, we might have a better handle on his future. Instead, with the trade deadline at hand, and perhaps Nathaniel Loweā€™s future as a Ranger looming as well, Foscue remains something of a question mark.

6. Kumar Rocker, RHP
Slightly Up

He returned from elbow surgery on schedule and has pitched well in Arizona. Last weekendā€™s Frisco debut was encouraging, as he maintained his prior velocity and control with a smoother delivery than heā€™s ever shown. As for concerns about his ultimate role, effectiveness, and long-term health, I think weā€™re stuck with those until he proves what he can or canā€™t do.

7. Anthony Gutierrez, OF

Down Slightly

Gutierrez displayed a much more airborne-oriented swing in Spring Training, but the impact on his fly rate compared to last year has been modest, and his limited power hasnā€™t budged. Heā€™s getting by in a difficult high-A assignment, but thatā€™s it. We need to remember thatā€™s heā€™s 19 and would have been the youngest Opening Day Crawdad by 11 months if not for Walcott, but itā€™s hard to muster enthusiasm until more of that potential appears in games.

8. Jack Leiter, RHP

Up

I understand if you disagree, but hear me out. Is he ready for MLB? No? Is he a starter? I donā€™t know. Is he better than he was at the end of 2023? Very much so. 2023 was a mess, as you recall, and while he earned an end-of-season start with Round Rock, I wouldnā€™t call that a promotion as much as simply another chance to pitch after Friscoā€™s season had ended. In 2024, despite the occasional ugliness, Leiter has the sixth-best strikeout rate in AAA (32.1%), fourth-best gap between K and BB rates (20.5%) and sixth-best swinging strike rate (14.9%). Everyone better than him in these categories is older. He has at times looked like an MLB-worthy starter, not as often as Iā€™d like, but still a far cry from last year, when I sometimes despaired.

9. Jose Corniell, RHP
Down

The decision to protect a young international prospect on the 40 or risk a Rule 5 loss is often difficult. Corniell probably wouldnā€™t have fared well enough against MLB hitters to stick, but he might have, and the risk was losing him for nothing. So, youngsters like Corniell tend to be protected, but the option years are still a formative period, so losing one or perhaps two to injury is detrimental, if not ruinous. (I say ā€œperhapsā€ because Texas could place him on the 60-day IL instead of optioning him in 2025.)

10. Owen White, RHP

Down

The Rangers have used seven pitchers who werenā€™t on the 40-man roster when the season started, while White has made two brief and unsuccessful appearances. Heā€™s actually shown modest improvement in some respects despite a worse ERA than last year, but not enough to inspire any confidence in any MLB role other than emergency.

11. Dustin Harris, OF/1B

Down

The good news is that Harris has improved enough defensively to actually be considered a potential MLB outfielder. Harris has a great eye and squares the ball better than most. What he does not do is hit hard. The worryingly low exit velocities of 2023 have persisted. Harrisā€™s median and 90th-percentile exit velocities are among the lowest in the PCL and would rank at or close to the bottom among Major Leaguers. Even with additional positional flexibility, that lack of velo necessarily limits his potential.

12. Abimelec Ortiz, 1B/OF
Down

Last year, one of every eight balls in play from Ortiz left the yard. This year, one of every 26, and my draft was ā€œone of every 40ā€ until last weekā€™s three homers. For someone like Ortiz, hardly any other analysis is necessary. He is making better contact lately, and perhaps last week represents a resurrection. He doesnā€™t turn 23 until next February.

13. Cameron Cauley, SS/2B
Even

Back in March, Iā€™d harbored hope that Cauley might make a mid-season jump like last year, but at this point Iā€™m expecting a full season in Hickory. The primary difference from 2023 is a 40% decline in walk rate. Cauley has always struck out more than the league average, so concern about his plate discipline is justified. On the other hand, his contact and power are similar to last season, and heā€™s still vey much a middle infielder with terrific speed.

14. Paulino Santana, OF Ā 

Up slightly

The top signing of Texasā€™s 2024 international group was named MVP of the Dominican Summer League All-Star game. Hardly any of his available power appeared in games, but he exhibited strong contact skills and patience in his rookie season. No reason to be anything but satisfied so far.

15. Yeison Morrobel, OF

Down

Morrobel jumped to high-A despite a 2023 sharply shortened by injury and nearly absent of extra-base hits. The anticipated power has appeared but was mostly compressed into May; in the past two months heā€™s batted .165/.247/.211. Some of that might be batted-ball luck, as heā€™s maintained a decent strikeout rate, but at some point the slash stats contain some truth. Barring dramatic change in the final six weeks of 2024, I expect heā€™ll return to high-A next season.

16. Emiliano Teodo, RHP
Up
I came into the season thinking a little too smugly that Teodo would shift to relief after half a season in AA like so many of his predecessors. Instead, Teodo has improved his three pitches (including a still-infrequent but potentially useful change) such that any role shift will at the least be delayed. Concerns remain. Teodoā€™s 15% BB/HBP rate is unacceptable as is; not a single MLB pitcher with at least 10 starts has a rate that high. Heā€™s also a skinny lad, and I worry about his durability.

17. Echedry Vargas, 2B/SS
Even

One of my strongest impressions in Surprise was disbelief that Vargas struck out in 24% of last yearā€™s plate appearances at the complex. He seemed as contact-oriented as anyone out there of his age. Iā€™m happy to report a K rate of only 19% in low-A, although it comes in odd contrast to an inflated swinging strike rate of 16%. Heā€™s also not doing anything yet to dispel positional concerns. In 55 games at short heā€™s committed 24 errors (10 throwing, 14 fielding). Errors are a poor catch-all defensive stat, but still, 24 is a lot. On the whole, though, heā€™s having a solid first full season.

18. Josh Stephan, RHP

Down slightly

The undrafted South Grand Prairie alum has a decent arsenal, great control, and two straight July injuries. Last year, a back malady ended his season after his AA debut, and he was shelved with elbow inflammation two weeks ago. The prognosis was positive as these things go, but whether heā€™ll reappear in 2024 is uncertain. Stephan aids his 22% strikeout rate with a slew of infield pops, but heā€™s also been more homer-prone.

19. Aidan Curry, RHP
Down slightly

Curry has the frame and stuff to pitch in the Majors, but 2024 hasnā€™t been fun. Some off-the-rails outings ballooned his ERA to double digits in May, and bringing it down has been a process. As Iā€™ve occasionally mentioned, Hickory and the Sally League can be homer-prone environments, and Curry has been very susceptible to hard contact. His control has improved over the course of the season, limiting recent damage, and he has the opportunity to finish the year on the rise.

20. Mitch Bratt, LHP
Up slightly

Bratt has been in Hickory since the beginning of 2022 and made 33 starts. How many more, I wonder? Surely a low number. His fastball has gained a little extra oomph, but Brattā€™s specialty is moving it around wherever he wants along with a slider and change. His walk rate is less than half the league rate, and heā€™s fanned 28% of his opponents.

21. Aaron Zavala, OF
Down

I feel for Zavala, who for a while looked like a potential starter despite a serious spinal injury that could have prevented a professional career entirely. Sad to say, he has yet to recover from internal brace surgery on his elbow late in 2022. Zavala has exemplary patience but has slugged under .300 both of the past two years.

22. Antoine Kelly, LHP
Down

What a bizarre progression. Organization reliever of the year in 2023, borderline Major Leaguer in April, designated for assignment in July. Kelly missed some time with a sore shoulder and then scared everyone with an injury near his elbow that turned out to be a false alarm. After that, however, he was dismally erratic and ineffective, losing his fastballā€™s velocity and control while putting one of every four opponents on base for free. Claimed by the Rockies, Kelly pitched twice against his former teammates last week with predictable results: a scoreless four outs with two Ks and a zero-out mess with twice as many balls as strikes.

23. Marc Church, RHP
Down

Obviously, the shoulder strain is the primary issue. Despite challenging for a roster spot in March, Church in April before the injury was the same talented but frustratingly inconsistent pitcher of 2023.

24. Braylin Morel, OF Ā 

Up slightly

Last year, Morelā€™s 32 extra-base hits were the most in the Dominican Summer league since 2019, and he brought his power stateside in 2024 with ten doubles, five triples, seven homers, and a .575 slugging percentage in the complex league. On to low-A.

25. Marcos Torres, OF/1B
Down slightly

Torres is one of several prospects in recent years to succeed in Arizona only to find the Carolina League a daunting hurdle. The good news is the 19-year-old is showing patience and slugging .503 when he makes contact, about 40 points higher than the park-adjusted league average. The bad is heā€™s striking out every third trip to the plate.

26. Gleider Figuereo, 3B
Even

Like Yeison Morrobel, Figuereo had an injury-shortened and underwhelming full-season debut in 2023. Sent back to Kinston, he improved across the board and hopped to Hickory last month. Figuereo leads the organization with 18 homers including six in 25 games in high-A, but his walk and strikeout rates have wandered in the wrong directions, and LHPs have persistently troubled him.

27. Joseph Montalvo, RHP
Up slightly

Montalvo has struck out more and walked fewer in the jump from low-A to high-A. Heā€™s allowed more homers, but thatā€™s virtually a given due to the change level and hitting environment. Montalvo deals a 92-93 fastball well-coordinated with a sweepy slider and change.

28. Dane Acker, RHP
Even or down slightly

Acker has incrementally improved his control, which is on the high side for a presumed starter. Enough to matter? Iā€™m not sure. Eight months after last fallā€™s 40-man/Rule-5 procedures, I still see someone worthy of a writeup in November but not in the top tier of potential additions.

29. Izack Tiger, RHP

Even

Tiger successfully waited out elbow inflammation and slowly ramped to a late-June return to full-season, where heā€™s pitched exactly as hoped based on eye-catching outings last fall and this spring. He has a starterā€™s repertoire and the short-burst stuff to transition to relief if needed.Ā  Ā 

30. Jesus Lopez, C
Down Slightly
Lopez hasnā€™t necessarily done anything wrong, but neither has he done much to set himself apart. His .250/.307/.267 line is actually around the average for a pitcher-friendly league and park. The problem is most of that production came in the seasonā€™s first month. Since then, heā€™s .204/.256/.319 with a 32% K rate and two IL stints. Catching is hard.

Texas Rangers Draft Review, Rounds 3-20

3/103. OF Casey Cook, North Carolina, 6′ 0″, 195, age 21
Rankings: Baseball America #164, MLB.com #171, Fangraphs not ranked but mentioned

A contact-oriented hitter with a polished approach. Not especially known for power but did homer twice off #2-overall pick Chase Burns. Also not especially known for his defense but made this circus catch.

4/133. RHP David Hagaman, West Virginia, 6′ 4″, 215, age 21
Rankings: Baseball America #183, Fangraphs #44, outside MLB.comā€™s top 250

Rankings vary widely on the redshirt sophomore. The fastball has touched 98, the slider runs around 86, and he owns a changeup that could prove useful if the Rangers want to test him as a starter as opposed to his relief role for the Mountaineers. Hagaman had brace surgery on his elbow in May. Recovery time is typically shorter than for Tommy John, so the impact on his 2025 could be minimal.

5/165. SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL), 5′ 10″, 185, age 18
Rankings: Baseball America #470, MLB.com #218, Fangraphs (outside top 100 but mentioned)

One of only three high-schoolers selected, Fitz-Gerald doesnā€™t appear to be toolsyĀ  in the traditional sense but is a baseball lifer who has the instincts and skills to succeed. The switch-hitter is committed to NC State.

6/195. LHP Garrett Horn, Liberty University, 6′ 2″, 190, age 21
Rankings: Baseball America #304

Horn underwent Tommy John surgery after only four starts for the Flames, so weā€™re probably waiting until next June to see his name in a box. Hornā€™s control backslid in 2023 both at Liberty and the Cape after an impressive freshman debut, but he seemed to have at least partly righted the ship before his injury and had struck out a third of his opponents. He sports a low-90s fastball, slider, curve, and change. Hereā€™s a quick slo-mo video from Friend of the Report Chris Wimmer.

7/225. 3B Rafe Perich, Lehigh (PA), 6′ 3″, 225, age 22
Rankings: Baseball America #293

Perich is Texasā€™s largest position pick by height and weight but is another contact-first bat. He struck out only 23 times versus 34 walks in the Patriot League and batted .382. He also slugged .572 but with only six homers; he certainly seems like he could grow into more power (for example, this), but weā€™ll see.

8/255. RHP Anthony Susac, Arizona, 6′ 3″, 216, age 21

Nickname:Ā  ā€œTonko.ā€ In some respects, Susac had a trying season, as he dipped from weekend starter to midweek starter to relief. He improved greatly in a one-and-done role, walking four and fanning 23 in 14.2 innings. As a starter, he used a low-90s fastball, slider and change. Video.

9/285. OF Keith Jones II, New Mexico State, 6′ 2″, 220, age 22

Jones returned to Las Cruces after not being selected last year and led the Aggies in pretty much every offensive stat including 17 homers. Based on use in college, heā€™ll man a corner, mostly likely left.

10/315. RHP Jake Jekielek
, Northwood University (MI), 6′ 0″, 195, age 21

The side-armer struck out 56 against just five walks in 42 innings as Northwoodā€™s closer. Per Carlos Collazo of Baseball America, Jekielek has already signed for $20,000, far below slot. Jekielek is still just 21 but a senior, and they take what they can. Clubs often use some of rounds 6-10 on inexpensive players to spend the savings elsewhere. The Angels have signed their picks in rounds 8-10 for $1,000 each.

11/345. LHP Dalton Pence, North Carolina, 6′ 2″, 215, age 21
Rankings: Baseball America #340

Casey Cookā€™s teammate, UNCā€™s relief ace. Pence leans heavily on a low-90s high-movement fastball assisted by a slider and change.

12/375. C Josh Springer, Corona Senior HS (CA), 6′ 3″, 205, age 18
Rankings: Baseball America #416

Heā€™s an Oregon commit, a young 18, and the third-best prep catcher in California according to Perfect Game.Ā  Hereā€™s video of his wiggly setup.

13/405. LHP Aidan Deakins, Wabash Valley College (IL), 6′ 3″, 185, age 20

If Deakins doesnā€™t sign, heā€™ll head to Troy. He offers a 90-92 fastball, upper 70 slider and a change.

14/435. C Ben Hartl, Kansas, 5′ 11″, 210, age 21

Hartl joined the Jayhawks after two seasons at Heartland Community College (IL). Hereā€™s video of him homering in the 9th against my alma mater. (My alma mater would prevail.)

15/465. RHP Brooks Fowler, Oral Roberts, 6′ 3″, 205, age 21

A weekend starter. Fowler has a 90-93 fastball and 80-82 slider; hereā€™s video.

16/495. RHP Eric Loomis, Missouri State, 6′ 0″, 195, age 22

Per MSUā€™s director of analytics, Loomis offers an average of 94 on the fastball (with ample horizontal break), 80 slider, and 84 change. Loomis pitched mostly in relief. Control is an issue, as he walked or hit 29 in 26.2 innings.

17/525. RHP Joey Danielson, North Dakota St, 6′ 3″, 235, age 23

The Bisonā€™s closer. 7% walk rate, 20% K rate. Video.

18/555. RHP Kadyn Leon
, Lake Travis HS (TX), 6′ 0″, 175, age 18

Also the football teamā€™s QB, but his future is baseball. Heā€™s committed to McLennan Community College. Fastball 89-92, curve 76-80, slider 86. Video.

19/585. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa , 5′ 11″, 160, age 20
Rankings: Baseball America #176, MLB Pipeline #214

Iowaā€™s Friday starter delivers a low-slot low-90s fastball, sweeper, and occasional change. Heā€™s ranked well ahead of where picked and is a draft-eligible sophomore, so if Texas has any savings from earlier rounds, some of that might be employed here. Video.

20/615. C Mac Rose
, McLennan CC (TX), 6′ 0″, 200, age 20

He batted .354/.420/.540 in 55 games for McLennan. Rose also pitched in high school and made one appearance in the Cal Collegiate League on the mound.

Jack Leiter AAA Charts

I’ve overlaid the Statcast illustrator images from his three AAA starts and colored in the whiffs. First, the fastball (swinging strikes in green). I should clarify his fastball location, which I’d previously described at heavier to his glove-side irrespective of batter handedness. In truth, he focuses on that location when aiming for the bottom half of the zone, but top-half pitches are more evenly spread horizontally. I was probably putting his fastballs and cutters (see below) into the same bucket.


Now, sliders (swinging strikes in red). As I’d mentioned, he had a bad tendency toward jerking his sliders too far glove-side, and it was readily apparent out of his hand, turning a putative put-away into a waste pitch. He’s grabbing the corner (or making batters think he will) much more frequently now, inducing more swings.


Cutter chart (no swinging strikes, as there’s only one). He doesn’t use it much against righties, instead crowding lefties with it. This chart is why I’ve mentioned his glove-side tendency on several occasions. Round Rock’s fancy new scoreboard has been slow to update pitch speeds, and his cutter’s cut is slight, often still tailing arm-side a little, so I was usually seeing and marking these as fastballs (or a fastball with a question mark because it looked a little strange).

Rangers Farm Report + High-A & Low-A Roster Previews

Let The Games Begin
Round Rock commences the 2024 season tonight at home. The other teams will start next Tuesday. Owen White draws the opening start, followed by Jack Leiter Saturday (albeit potentially as a reliever in favor of Michael Lorenzenā€™s rehab outing), and Adrian Sampson.

Something I noticed in writing the roster previews is a relative lack of players advancing to higher levels to start the season. At first I wondered if that was a reflection on quality, but I think itā€™s more the staggered schedules. Last year, the complex league ended with about two weeks remaining in the A schedules, which ended a week before AA, which ended a week before AAA. The Rangers often push selected players up a level to finish their seasons, so we have players like Jack Leiter, Sebastian Walcott, Echedry Vargas, and others who have a small handful of innings or plate appearances at a level they wouldnā€™t have reached under the old format in which all full-season leagues ended on Labor Day.

Missing Players
40-man pitcher Jose Corniell and hard-throwing reliever Izack Tiger from last yearā€™s 7th round are out with elbow inflammation per local reports. Neither requires surgery (although I suppose thereā€™s always a chance, eventually) but will miss several weeks and then need to get back into game shape. Sad to say, I didnā€™t even notice how long Corniell had been missing. Too many folks to keep tabs on. He threw a couple of early spring games, was pulled from the Prospect Game roster, and hasnā€™t appeared since to my knowledge.

A sizable number of pitchers and several hitters, some of whom I saw in games last week, have yet to receive assignments. That said, best as I can tell, the Rangers donā€™t have any immediate worries in terms of the limit on domestic minor leaguers under contract. However, they also have an understaffed rookie team, and play starts in early May instead of the traditional mid-June.

Missing Primer
Every year I have a primer on the minor leagues games: how theyā€™re played in comparison to MLB, how I cover them, what stats to focus on or ignore. Iā€™ll probably have part one on Monday and part two on Tuesday, when all four teams will be playing.

HIGH-A HICKORY CRAWDADS

Players reaching the level for the first time are in italics. In parentheses are age and how acquired. IFA = international free agent, NDFAĀ  = non-drafted free agent, meaning they werenā€™t drafted but signed originally with Texas, FA = free agent, someone who was released or became a free agent after playing for a different club). Rosters are subject to change.

Pitchers
Mitch Bratt (20, draft)
Bryan Chi (25, IFA)
Seth Clark (24, NDFA)
Gavin Collyer (22, draft)
Aidan Curry (21, NDFA)
Josh Gessner (23, trade)
Skylar Hales (22, draft)
Jackson Kelley (23, draft)
Larson Kindreich (24, draft)
Dylan MacLean (21, draft)
Jacob Maton (24, draft)
Joseph Montalvo (21, draft)
Yohanse Morel (23, trade)
Brock Porter (20, draft)
Luis Ramirez (22, draft)
Adrian Rodriguez (22, draft)
Winston Santos (21, IFA)

Maybe the most interesting rotation of the four. Candidates include Porter, Bratt, Chi, Curry, MacLean, Montalvo, Ramirez, and Santos. And a couple of others conceivably. At this level, almost anyone can be a swingman. Five of the listed nine are new, headed by top pitching prospect Porter, who didnā€™t look so good when I saw him in person last week, but itā€™s nothing to fret about. His control is erratic, and on off days he runs into basic strike-throwing problems. On good days, heā€™ll steamroll the opposition. Iā€™m sure consistency is a focal point in 2024. Everything he throws is worthy.

Bratt is repeating the level despite a 28% strikeout rate against just a 6% walk rate and a 3.54 ERA. He did so as a 19-year-old and was limited by injury to 61 innings, so no rush. Assuming he pitches well, Iā€™d guess heā€™ll spend a good portion of the season in AA, perhaps the majority. Curry moved to Hickory late after manhandling the Carolina League. Like AA starter Josh Stephan, heā€™s an undrafted 2020 signing.

Santos drew attention in last yearā€™s camp but at Hickory had a line that suggested too many hittable fastballs: 117 hits, 19 homers, 88 strikeouts in 98.2 innings. Heā€™s better than that and will attempt to prove so with the Crawdads again.

Hales is new to Hickory in terms of the regular season but actually joined last year during the high-A playoffs. Assuming adequate control, I expect him to dominate this level. Iā€™ve bestowed similar praise on Adrian Rodriguez in the past, and he led last yearā€™s Wood Ducks with nine saves, but his control disappeared, as did his placement in high-leverage situations by yearā€™s end.

Catchers
Ian Moller (21, draft)
Konner Piotto (26, NDFA)
Tucker Mitchell (23, draft)

If anything, Moller hit slightly worse in 2023 than 2022 in Down East. He nonetheless advances to high-A rather than threepeat. Moller can catch, and he even received Arizona Fall League placement despite his low-A level and lack of hitting prowess. I didnā€™t get a good luck last week, but Iā€™ve seen in him a better hitter than last yearā€™s .190/.325/.295 line, and he deserves more time to improve.

Mitchell has the bat to play first when not catching, posting a .282/.387/.454 line among the A levels last year.

Infielders
Ben Blackwell (24, NDFA)
Cam Cauley (21, draft)
Jayce Easley (24, draft)
Devin Hurdle (23, NDFA)
Sebastian Walcott (18, IFA)

Walcott played four games here to conclude 2023, so technically heā€™s a repeater, but for practical purposes, heā€™s a newcomer skipping low-A. In intersquads, he was playing in a higher-level group than his age peers, so Iā€™m not surprised at his assignment even though he turned 18 just two weeks ago. Iā€™ve now seen firsthand his occasional troubles against breaking stuff, and at this level, sometimes heā€™s going to look silly. But heā€™s a special athlete, and I trust he has the fortitude to deal with adversity.

Youā€™ve heard much about Cauley over the past year, including his Arizona Fall League stint and several spring games despite not turning 21 until last month. I thought AA was possible, but heā€™ll resume duties in Hickory for the time being. His aggressive bat generates more power than youā€™d expect from his physique but also a very elevated strikeout rate that is worth tracking.

Outfielders
Yosy Galan (22, IFA)
Anthony Gutierrez (19, IFA)
Daniel Mateo (22, IFA)
Yeison Morrobel (20, IFA)

Gutierrez is a year older than Walcott but perhaps more of a surprise in reaching Hickory to start the season. He was okay last year but had the kind of season that I expected would warrant at least a little additional time in low-A. Regardless, I expect more power from his reconstituted swing.

The same applies to Morrobel, who missed much of 2023 and was absurdly power-deficient when healthy. As best as I can tell, Morrobel only DHā€™ed during intersquads, so weā€™ll see whether heā€™s similarly limited in April. He appears to have spent every day of the winter adding muscle. ā€ƒ

LOW-A DOWN EAST WOOD DUCKS

Pitchers
Paul Bonzagni (21, draft)
Wilian Bormie (21, IFA)
Kolton Curtis (19, NDFA)
David Davalillo (21, IFA)
Kohl Drake (23, draft)
Jose Gonzalez (22, IFA)
Kyle Larsen (20, draft)
Ryan Lobus (23, NDFA)
Bryan Magdaleno (23, IFA)
Case Matter (22, draft)
Brayan Mendoza (20, IFA)
Alberto Mota (21, IFA)
Justin Sanchez (20, draft)
Luke Savage (22, NDFA)
Josh Trentadue (22, draft)
Luis Valdez (20, trade)
Kai Wynyard (21, IFA)

A bunch of new faces and several more with scant experience at the level. Two I saw approvingly in Surprise were Kyle Larsen, a finally healthy 2021 pick, and side-armer Luke Savage. I did not see undrafted Kolton Curtis out there, but obviously the Rangers liked what they saw because heā€™s the only teenager on the staff.

Bonzagni (12th round), Matter (10th), Trentadue (14th) are from last yearā€™s draft, all from college. Bonzagni actually arrived in Down East late last season and immediately drew some critical relief situations.

Catchers
Julian Brock (22, draft)
Jesus Lopez (18, IFA)
Jesus Moreno (22, IFA)

8th-round pick Julian Brock is one of only four position players from last yearā€™s draft, and he didnā€™t play last season.

The younger Lopez was limited to 13 complex league games last summer but reached safely in 11 and batted .289/.396/.644.

Infielders
Danyer Cueva (19, IFA)
Arturo Disla (23, FA)
Gleider Figuereo (19, IFA)
Chandler Pollard (19, draft)
Echedry Vargas (19, IFA)

Disla and Figuereo will man the corners, and for the most part the other three should mix in the middle. Figuereo is one of several who dominated the complex league in 2022 only to find full-season ball orders of magnitude harder. He repeats despite leading the team in plate appearances last year, but thereā€™s room in Hickory if he gets off to a good start.

Among players I hadnā€™t seen before, Vargas excited me the most in Surprise. Congrats to the opposing pitchers who gave him a 25% strikeout rate last year, because contact was a certainty when I saw him. Thereā€™s questions about where heā€™ll eventually settle, but not because of any lack of assurance at any position. He played one game in low-A last season.

Cueva played 101 and will try to improve on last yearā€™s .226/.273/.318. The 2022 5th-round Pollard started slowly at the complex last summer but improved as the season progressed despite a lofty K rate.

Disla is roughly the size of Cueva and Vargas together and could be a leading power source.

Outfielders
Wady Mendez (19, IFA)
Marcus Smith (23, trade)
Tommy Specht (19, draft)
Marcos Torres (19, IFA)

Torres played a little CF in intersquads and the 2022 DSL, but heā€™s generally been limited to the corners and first base. He stole 23 bases and knocked 20 extra-base hits in 48 games in Arizona preceding a shorter, less successful trip to Down East.

I mentioned Tommy Specht last week as a hitter who surely has more to offer than last yearā€™s .221/.323/.288 line at the same level.

Eight of 12 Down East hitters are teenagers, and while everyone has to share the plate appearances, the youngsters arenā€™t there to sit and watch.

Rangers Farm Report + AAA and AA Roster Previews

Trade!
Texas traded RHP Zak Kent to Cleveland for international slot money. Kent missed much of last season with an oblique injury but had put himself back in the starting depth line by the end of 2023. A rough spring erased whatever chance he had of making the club out of Spring Training, however, and heā€™d been assigned to AA to begin this season.

Also, Texas selected the contracts of 1B Jared Waslh and RHP Jose Urena. RHP Tyler Mahle hit the 60-day IL, while Max Scherzer did not. Heā€™s on the shorter injured list along with 1B Nathaniel Lowe and pitchers Jonathan Hernandez and Michael Lorenzen.

Today, roster previews for the higher level minor league squads, plus other transactions. Tomorrow, high-A and low-A.

AAA ROUND ROCK EXPRESS

Players reaching the level for the first time are in italics. In parentheses are age and how acquired. IFA = international free agent, NDFA = non-drafted free agent, meaning they werenā€™t drafted but signed originally with Texas, FA = free agent, someone who was released or became a free agent after playing for a different club). Roster are subject to change.

Pitchers
Grant Anderson (26, trade)
Tim Brennan (27, draft)
Marc Church (22, draft)
Danny Duffy (35, FA)
Shane Greene (35, FA)
Antoine Kelly (24, trade)
Jack Leiter (23, draft)
Austin Pruitt (34, FA)
Daniel Robert (29, draft)
Adrian Sampson (32, FA)
Chasen Shreve (33, FA)
Blake Taylor (28, FA)
Jesus Tinoco (28, FA)
Owen White (24, draft)
Cole Winn (24, draft)

The spirited battles for the MLB bullpen spots arenā€™t over. Theyā€™ve just entered a new phase. 24 different pitchers made relief appearances for the Rangers last year. Hopefully this yearā€™s number is smaller, but it wonā€™t be eight. Conceivably, every pitcher on this list has some chance, even newcomer and TJ-recoveree Tim Brennan, who doesnā€™t many many bats but knows where to throw. Whether in the form of a youngster or an experienced offseason addition, this is a respectable group from which to draw reinforcements.

I saw mild speculation about Jack Leiter making the active roster after an encouraging spring, but Iā€™m glad heā€™s here. Leiter has never strung together many consecutive quality outings. Iā€™d like to see that before we discuss his MLB debut. Regardless, heā€™s in better form than last March.

Cole Winn has another option in 2025, but I feel weā€™re looking at his last chance to put things back together in this organization. His downturn is approaching two full seasons. Iā€™m fully on board with Texasā€™s patience, as even in his most troublesome outings he usually offers glimmers of who he could still become.

Owen White is in a similar if not identical spot, having retained more basic control than Winn but losing some of his velocity. Heā€™s a bulldog, for sure, but that only goes so far. He needs his old stuff back. I saw the old White in two of his four innings last week in Surprise.

I should point out that pitchers can rebound. Look no further than 2024 Opening Day roster member Jacob Latz. Latz was awful much of last seasonā€™s first three months, or more specifically, pretty good more often than not, but a batting-practice pitcher the rest of the time. A third of his outings produced multiple runs. Then, over an equal number of outings, Latz surrendered multiple runs only once and fanned 30% of his opponents, making hay with his changeup and breakers.

Many express dismay when I reported Marc Churchā€™s option to AAA on twitter (by ā€œreport,ā€ I mean ā€œgot the news out first because I set my computer to chime whenever the transaction page is updated.ā€) Having options and no MLB experience worked against him, but only for the moment. Not now, but soon, Iā€™d say he has an MLB spot waiting for him assuming he continues to pitch well.

Catchers
JosƩ Godoy (29, FA)
Sam Huff (26, draft)
Andrew Knapp (32, FA)
Matt Whatley (28, draft)

10 hitters are back, responsible for 71% of last yearā€™s plate appearances. That incudes slugger Sam Huff and Matt Whatley, a light-hitting but highly regarded backstop who returned after becoming a free agent. Four or five years ago, Whatley was my dark-horse pick to reach MLB. He hasnā€™t, but heā€™s a strong AAA catcher.

Huff picked up a fourth option, giving Texas one more year to evaluate whether heā€™d be a suitable #2. Beginning in 2025, his status as an up-and-down catcher becomes complicated by having to enter and exit the 40-man roster.

Knapp and Godoy are veteran depth. I donā€™t expect both to hang around the entire season.

Infielders
Jose Barrero (25, waivers)
Jax Biggers (26, draft)
Blaine Crim (26, draft)
Matt Duffy (33, FA)
Justin Foscue (25, draft)
Jonathan Ornelas (23, draft)
Davis Wendzel (26, draft)

Please welcome back last yearā€™s infield. Ornelas reached the majors last year, Foscue should before too long, and Crim and Wendzel are hoping for a chance. Regarding the latter two, both might have already become Major Leaguers by now if MLB had expanded along with the population the past two decades, or if the Rangers were in the same shape last year as 2020-2021. Poor parent clubs create more ā€œletā€™s see what this guy can doā€ chances.

Foscue returns to AAA to reinforce his trade value or engender the idea that he, not Nathaniel Lowe, ought to be Texasā€™s starting 1B. (Or maybe a DH.) Like Lowe, Foscue isnā€™t the ideal power source for a 1B but compensates with on-base prowess.

Texas also outrighted IF Jose Barrero to AAA (he doesnā€™t have the right to bail). Ornelas probably has the upper hand as a Texas bench replacement since heā€™s on the 40, but Barrero has hit AAA pitching very well and at the least should be fun to watch with the Express.

Matt ā€œSchrodingerā€ Duffy is listed on the roster despite showing up as ā€œreleasedā€ on the transaction wire. He is indeed in Round Rock.

Outfielders
Sandro Fabian (26, FA)
Dustin Harris (24, trade)
Trevor Hauver (25, trade)
Elier Hernandez (29, FA)
Derek Hill (28, FA)

Fabian, Harris, and Hernandez are familiar faces. Harris should also see some time at first and perhaps even third. He played there on my last day in Surprise, but I barely saw him (and didnā€™t see anything hit his way) because the game started two hours earlier than usual and I didnā€™t know until I showed upā€¦ in the 8th inning. Hopefully, thatā€™s the dumbest thing I ever do out in Arizona. Harrisā€™s exit velocity is a key metric amongst the hitters. It lagged last year.

Part of the Joey Gallo return, Trevor Hauver wasnā€™t great in 2023 but good enough to move up to AAA, improving his defense but trading some homers for doubles. He has a keen eye and should enjoy the automated strike zone.

Newcomer Hill is the best defensive CF.

AA FRISCO ROUGHRIDERS

Pitchers
Dane Acker (24, trade)
Robby Ahlstrom (24, trade)
Aidan Anderson (26, FA)
Ben Anderson (25, draft)
Reid Birlingmair (27, FA)
Ricky DeVito (25, trade)
Ryan Garcia (26, draft)
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (23, draft)
Steven Jennings (25, trade)
Zak Kent (26, draft)
Nick Krauth (24, NDFA)
Tyler Owens (23, trade)
Andy Rodriguez (25, IFA)
Josh Stephan (22, NDFA)
Emiliano Teodo (23, IFA)
Avery Weems (26, trade)
Grant Wolfram (27, draft)

Emiliano Teodo might become a Ranger in 2024. He might not. The stuff is there in abundance, the control is better but not there yet. Hard as he throws, his ultimate effectiveness hinges on his breaker, which when on will both miss bats and prevent hitters from keying fastball.

Josh Stephan was felled by a back injury after just one AA start. Heā€™s a legit prospect despite being undrafted (because of 2020) and from South Grand Prairie, so thereā€™s your rooting interest.

Dane Acker has the opportunity to complete his first fully injury-free season as a professional and make the ā€œAndrus-Davisā€ trade even worse for Oakland. (The other guy acquired in that trade was Jonah Heim.)

In original writeup, no longer applicable: ā€œI assume Zak Kentā€™s lower placement is an attempt to get him properly tracked after a rough spring. A roster crunch in AAA crossed my mind, but if that were the case, having Kent in AAA and Tim Brennan in AA would make more sense.ā€

Catchers
Liam Hicks (24, draft)
Cooper Johnson (25, FA)
Scott Kapers (27, draft)

Hicks impressed in last yearā€™s Arizona Fall League. He lacks power, not even hitting that many doubles, but heā€™ll hit around .275 with a zillion walks and HBPs. Hicks has a career .426 OBP.

Infielders
Max Acosta (21, IFA)
Frainyer Chavez (24, draft)
Alex De Goti (29, FA)
Cody Freeman (23, draft)
Abimelec Ortiz (22, NDFA)

Jamey Newberg had Abi Ortiz ranked 55th in the system entering 2023. I was hopeful but leaned on the skeptical side, to be honest. As a 20-year-old at low-A Down East, he hit 11 homers in 94 games, solid for the level, but he offered little else, and heā€™s essentially a 1B. 12 games into 2024, he was batting .256/.326/.308 with a 39% K rate. Not great.

And then he was the lower minorsā€™ best power hitter, blasting 33 homers and slugging .659 in a 95-game stretch. Now weā€™ll find out how he handles AA.

I guessed that Frisco would receive Acosta or Cam Cauley but not both to start the season. Acosta won the imaginary battle. Now 21, Acosta mustered some pop last year at Hickory, slugging .390 with an unprecedented 11 homers.

Cody Freeman is effectively a newcomer, having played a lone game at Frisco after a full season at high-A Hickory. Freeman spent two-thirds of his time behind the plate last year but is listed as an infielder, and he wasnā€™t listed as the starting catcher in any intersquads that I saw this spring.

Outfielders
Geisel Cepeda (26, IFA)
Josh Hatcher (25, draft)
Kellen Strahm (26, draft)
Aaron Zavala (23, draft)

Letā€™s not be coy: bat-first OF Aaron Zavala had a dreadful, terrible, no-good 2023. Brace surgery for his damaged elbow delayed his debut, after which he never regained form and even declined in the second half, batting .175 with a 40% K rate across August and September. He continued to walk at an otherworldly rate, but his path to the bigs is predicated on consistent, solid contact. Until last year, Zavala was a solid bet to reach MLB and even start regularly. Hereā€™s hoping for a better 2024.

Now 26, Cuban Ć©migrĆ© Geisel Cepeda didnā€™t offer much power (as expected) but put the ball in play and reached at an acceptable clip.

Released
RHP Deston Dotson. Dotson was Texasā€™s 12th-round pick from 2018, signed for $300,000 in lieu of Tulane. In 2021, he was entrusted with high-leverage situations down the stretch in Down Eastā€™s playoff run, and in front of me at Hickory in May 2022, he was impressive, pushing the fastball up to 96 and mixing two breakers. His control overall that season was poor, however. He didnā€™t pitch at all in 2023, however, and when I saw him last Wednesday, his control-absent fastball hovered around 87-88.

RHP Teodoro Ortega, part of return for righty reliever Cory Gearrin way back at 2018ā€™s trade deadline. Now 24, Ortega had been limited by injury to 15 innings the past two years.

RHP Leury Tejada, 2018ā€™s 10th-round pick. After a solid if homer-prone 2022, his strikeout rate plummeted last year.

RHP CJ Widger, a 2021 10th-rounder. Widger didnā€™t appear in a game until 2023 and was actually quite successful, fanning 35 against five walks in 28.1 innings amongst the complex league and low-A.

RHP Nick Bautista. The 22-year-old was picked in 2022ā€™s 16rh round. He fanned 35 in 19.1 innings at the complex last summer but also walked or hit 17.

RHP Trevor Kuncl, signed as a free agent out of George Washington six weeks ago.

RHPs Jonathan Holder and Diego Castillo, both signed in the offseason. Castillo was a worthy reliever for years but fell apart early last year and hasnā€™t recovered.

As sometimes happens, I saw the final outings of Ortega, Widger, Bautista, Kuncl, and Dotson while in Surprise.

60-Day Minor League IL
RHP Kumar Rocker (TJ recovery)
RHP Chase Lee (hip)
RHP William Privette (last yearā€™s 13th-rounder, donā€™t know the injury)

Full-Season Minor League IL
RHP Nick Lockhart (2019, 11th round)

Elsewhere
Arizona released IF Elvis Andrus.

IF Rougned Odor left Japanā€™s Yomuiri Giants. After a poor spring, the Giants wanted to send him to their farm club.

RHP Carl ā€œdonā€™t call me CJā€ Edwards Jr. took his release from Chicago.

The Cubs released catcher Jorge Alfaro. Iā€™ve always wanted Alfaro back in the organization, if only because heā€™s fun to watch, but I donā€™t see a fit in AAA right now.

Detroit re-signed RHP Nick Starr ten days after releasing him.

St. Louis optioned infielder Thomas Saggese and lefty John King to AAA. Saggese was under consideration for the Opening Day roster. RHP TK Roby doesnā€™t have to be added to the 40 until after this season.

Reliever Ryder Ryan, who spent two season in Round Rock and briefly reached the Majors with Seattle last year, has made Pittsburghā€™s Opening Day roster.

Reliever Jesse Chavez made the Braves. Chavez was originally a 42nd-round pick by the Rangers in 2002, when Fernando Tatis Jr.ā€™s dad played third base for the Montreal Expos.

One More Thing
The Texas Rangers won the World Series last year and commence their title defense today.