Category: News and Analysis

Tenders

As I half-guessed, Texas concluded the work week with a net loss to the 40-man roster despite several additions. The Rangers declined arbitration to C Jonah Heim, OF Adolis Garcia, RHP Josh Sborz and RHP Jacob Webb, making them free agents. I’m not a young man and know of impermanence, but in case I ever forget, baseball is there to remind me. The Rangers are down to ten players on the 40 predating the 2023 World Series. 

In July 2023, Heim suffered a torn wrist tendon sheath. The prognosis was a minimum absence of 2-3 weeks, possibly longer, possibly season-ending surgery. There was discussion of how often he’d play if he returned and whether he’d be able to swing right-handed against lefties. Not only did he return quickly and without a rehab stint, he played in 41 of the team’s final 45 games, 36 of them starting behind the plate. He then started every playoff game. He actually didn’t hit that well in the aggregate, but of course he had some critical hits and defense. A remarkable and likely career-defining run. 

Heim hasn’t been the same since, offering one good month and perhaps a couple of other adequate ones in the subsequent two years. I’m the polar opposite of a general-opinion sports columnist, but if that were my job, I’d have a great narrative about how Heim left everything on the field in late 2023 and just hasn’t had anything to give since. There were arguments for keeping him next year – he wouldn’t be that expensive, and the open market and internal options are wanting – but Texas can’t stand pat after 2025. 

The Rangers designated Garcia for assignment just before Spring Training in 2021, but no club made a claim, understandably. Garcia was three weeks from his 28th birthday, toolsy but with a dire BB/SO ratio and barely capable of sustaining a .300 OBP in AAA. I watched him in the “Alternate Site” minor league games that filled the gap between Spring Training and the delayed start to minor league season. Texas retrieved him during that time, and he never returned. 

I don’t need to recount Garcia’s critical hits, all of which are permanently etched in your brain, occupying the cells that are supposed to remember where you left your keys. Baseball Reference has a stat called Championship Win Probability Added, which is like the standard WPA except measuring how much the playoff performance contributes to a title. It’s a squirrelly stat that ignores defense and is heavily dependent on high-leverage events (for example, Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t get much credit for his heroics), but if you want to measure players by big moments, it’s great fun. By this stat, Garcia won 35% of Texas’s 2023 championship all by himself. He had two of the top three events plus five others that increased Texas’s likelihood of winning the Series by at least 2%. 

After the deeply disappointing 2024, Garcia entered this year wanting to hit 50 homers. Which… look, it’s nice to have goals, but I was just hoping for the midpoint between ’23 and ’24. Defensively, he got there, but the offense was even worse. From a purely statistical point of view, there are players so valuable defensively that even egregious offense can be overlooked. Leonys Martin (if you remember him) fit that description. But, if you’re a human running a team and filling out the card, you understandably reach a point at which you can’t tolerate what you see at the plate regardless of compensatory defense, and Garcia was reaching that point. Also, his defense was just good, not great. 

Baseball Reference actually bestowed 2.7 WAR upon him in 2025, but much of that so-called value rests on an extreme park-factor calculation that makes Globe Life far more pitcher-friendly than I believe is warranted. (See the fourth paragraph and the last footnote of my article on trying to divine the actual quality of Texas’s 2025 offense.) Fangraphs has him at 0.7, which I think is closer to the “truth.” Even during 2023, I never expected Garcia to stay beyond 2026 when Texas’s control over his fate expired. 

Sborz’s activation from the IL in April 2023 was unpopular in the online community. I recall some angry responses to the official announcement on twitter. My rejoinder: “I get it if you’re not a Sborz fan, but in that case you should be happy. If he’s bad he’ll be out of your life soon, if he’s good he’ll be good!” He was indeed good enough to stick, although the season was pockmarked with several bad stretches, and he ended up with a 5.50 ERA. Then, he went on an outrageous heater at the perfect time. Sborz recorded the final seven outs in the final game of the Series, and in the first four, Texas led by a lone run. He was Texas’s most valuable pitcher in the playoffs per the Championship WPA stat. 

He’s pitched only 16 MLB innings since, plus 22 in the minors on rehab. I’m sad to say he really didn’t look the part while in Round Rock late last summer. I was actually wondering whether he’d be designated for assignment during that stretch, but his health was such that Texas could just keep him on the IL. I’d be happy to have him back on a minor deal.

Garcia, Heim and Sborz were at their best when Texas (and you and I) needed them most, and that’s how they should be remembered. 

Emotions aside, the Webb decision is the one that’s actually perplexing to me. He was homer-prone but blandly competent and wasn’t going to cost more than around $2 million. Texas now has to replace an additional 66 innings. Pitchers who closed the 2025 season in relief for Texas and are still in the organization: Jose Cornieill, Luis Curvelo, Robert Garcia, Jacob Latz, plus the IL’ed Cole Winn. That list is why I thought Webb would be back. 

Every pre-arb player was tendered, but the likelihood of all remaining on the 40 until Spring Training is approximately 0.01%. 

Take a guess at which current Ranger has been on the 40-man roster the longest. Answer at bottom. 

40-Man Additions

Texas added RHP David Davalillo, 1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz and RHP Leandro Lopez.

The surprising omission was IF/OF Cam Cauley. Baseball America deemed him Texas’s toughest decision, while Fangraphs called him a “must-add.” I’d downgraded him from a sure thing to more-likely-than-not in the course of developing my preview. Cauley has defensive versatility, speed and some pop, all desirable qualities in the upcoming draft, and he’s improved his strikeout rate. On the downside, his career batting average is .240, fewer Ks have not resulted in more hits, and his walk rate is bland, so he reaches base at a below-average rate. I think the argument is if he can’t post a solid OBP in AA, imagine the results against MLB pitchers in early 2026, even in a bench role. Another argument is his potential. A regular? Josh Smith-esque utility? End-of-bench up-and-down type? The further down the list we go, the less drafting him and putting up with a possibly sub-replacement 2026 makes sense. Cauley didn’t make Baseball America’s initial list of potential draft picks but will probably be added to an update. If he remains a Ranger, I expect we’ll see plenty of him in Spring Training, and he’ll have a shot to reach the Majors during the season. 

The Rangers didn’t add any first-time eligibles from the 2021 or 2022 drafts, although they certainly would have added  Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake, both protected after being acquired by Arizona. Remarkably, Texas is already down to just five players remaining in the system from the ’22 draft: RHP Kumar Rocker (1), RHP Brock Porter (4), IF/OF Chandler Pollard (5), RHP Luis Ramirez (7) and RHP Jackson Kelley (12). The Rangers had no second or third-round picks that year (for good reason!), and five of 18 didn’t sign, so the group was small from the jump. 

Per Baseball America, only 61% of the 27 first-time-eliglble first rounders were protected league-wide, a full 10% worse than the previous low in 2018. The Royals left picks from 2021 (high-school pitcher Frank Mozzicato, 7th overall) and 2022 (college OF Gavin Cross, 9th) unprotected. The Mets didn’t add catcher Kevin Parada, loosely linked to the Rangers in 2022 and drafted 11th overall. 

Answer

Ezequiel Duran was added to the 40 in November 2021. Longest in the organization is Jacob Latz, signed in June 2017. 

40 Man / Rule 5 Outlook

Tuesday is the deadline for protecting players on the 40-man roster in advance the Rule 5 draft. The Texas 40-man roster currently sits at 35 players. Nine are eligible for arbitration but not guaranteed to receive it. Another handful, including recent waiver or trade additions, are candidates for designation prior to Friday’s contract-tender deadline. So in these respects, the Rangers have generous room for prospect additions. Conceivably, Texas could have fewer than 35 on the roster by the end of business Friday. 

Conversely, regardless of budget constraints, they have other additions to make. Nine pitchers departed as free agents. Guess how many pitchers Texas has on the 40 with at least 50 innings of experience and expected to be at healthy next spring? Also nine, and that includes Josh Sborz, whose arbitration status is uncertain as I type. Texas doesn’t have a roster crunch per se but can’t add players heedlessly. 

Here’s my thoughts on potential 40-man additions:

RHP David Davalillo (Age 23, 1st-time eligible)
Yes. Next…

1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz (23, 2nd time)
While a late-season surge salvaged Ortiz’s 2024, I wasn’t especially enthused entering this season, and had I written this piece in late July, he would have been well down the list. He was hitting .234/.336/.411 while repeating AA as a bat-or-bust prospect, and my reaction to his early August promotion to AAA was more “might as well” than “it’s about time.” At Round Rock, he batted a revelatory .283/.388/.565 with nine homers in 41 games. Yes, a chunk of that success occurred in friendly Albuquerque, but the statcast data fully backed him up: 54% hard-hit rate, median and upper-level exit velos well above average, good launch angles, even a better-than-average whiff rate. He positively obliterated high fastballs, particularly on first pitches. I kept waiting for PCL pitchers to adjust, but they didn’t. They will eventually, so he’ll have to adjust in kind, but darned if he isn’t putting legitimate big-league punishment on the ball while maintaining his dignity against breaking stuff. I never wrote this glowingly about Blaine Crim in any R5 preview, but Ortiz at his best shines a little brighter, he bats lefty, and he can probably be indulged in RF for a spell. He certainly won’t be the most well-rounded prospect available if unprotected, which is the rationale for leaving him off. Still, I have talked myself into thinking he’ll be added. 

IF/OF Cam Cauley (22, 1st)
Baseball America deemed him Texas’s toughest decision. My immediate reaction was “no, he’s on, Lopez is tougher,” but let’s have this out. On the surface the choice seems easy: Cauley runs very well, can hit for power and play short and center (and elsewhere) ably. He batted .253/.325/.448 with 15 homers and 33 other extra-base hits as a 22-year-old in Frisco, a moderately aggressive assignment given his so-so 2024 in high-A. What’s not to like? He does have a better chance at being picked than post-2024 Cody Freeman because of that versatility, but unlike Max Acosta last year and Jonathan Ornelas after 2023, Cauley hasn’t quite closed the deal. While he’s genuinely improved his contact rate, reaching base isn’t his specialty, and he could be swamped in the short run against MLB pitching. Even though I’m skeptical he could stick on an MLB roster this soon, I lean toward selection.  

RHP Leandro Lopez (23, 1st)
For the first time, Lopez was fully healthy, effective and unleashed, improving his previously woeful control to shockingly well above average while broadening his repertoire. Is that enough? I have mixed feelings. It’s easy to become overly insular in this process, focusing too much on how each player rates within the organization  rather than the league at large. Ortiz’s data and Cauley tools will stand out in a Rule 5 draft. Lopez, perhaps not. Most opponents have similar players with similar stories. Lopez has a variety of risks (health, control, future role), and I’d strongly prefer him being nurtured at Frisco next year and reassessed. I seriously doubt he could hold an MLB roster spot throughout 2025, an argument for leaving him off for now, and that’s where I sit today. 

Wilian Bormie (24, 2nd)
Tempting. Bormie enjoyed a velocity spike in 2025, picking up four full ticks to an average of 96 and reaching triple digits on occasion. He also displayed grievous control at times. Too raw today, but one to watch in 2026. 

RHP Ismael Agreda (22, 1st)
Fangraphs’ mid-season prospect list described him conditionally as an “interesting roster candidate for the offseason.” My Bormie writeup generally applies here, with the exceptions of Agreda working as a starter much of the time but spending nearly the whole season at a lower level.

LHP Robby Ahlstrom (26, 2nd) 
Ahlstrom had decent results in 2025, but he’s fairly established at his point, If he didn’t force his way onto the roster during the season, I don’t know why he’d be picked now. A hot spring or in-season stretch could get him over the line. 

OF Aaron Zavala (25, 2nd)
I think not, but simply entertaining the idea shows how far he’s progressed. I omitted him completely in last year’s preview, and when I saw him in late March, I thought he’d be released rather than assigned to AA for a third time. He looked no different to me than his previous two years off elbow surgery. Zavala did in fact return to Frsico, where after a month he’d drawn a ridiculous 19 walks but still wasn’t hitting (.152 average, 283 slug). Then, out of nowhere, he produced his best month in three years. His initial foray in the PCL was short and bad, but upon return, he batted .275/.388/.500 with statcast data that mostly hovered around league averages. His time in AAA also revealed a surprisingly aggressive first-strike approach, contra previous passivity. 

RHP Josh Stephan (24, 2nd)
Stephan pitched last year’s Arizona Fall League championship game and was on the bubble for a 40 spot. I leaned against, and Texas declined. He reached AAA at the end of 2025 but didn’t improve his selection likelihood. 

3B Gleider Figuereo (21, 1st)
Figuereo’s season resembled Sebastian Walcott in that he sustained his homer power while losing a big chunk of his doubles and triples. He didn’t have the type of season needed to earn a 40 spot. Off-topic: Figuereo is one of a large number of Spartanburger hitters who made at best tepid cases for promotion to Frisco, which is severely lacking in warm bodies at present. Some combination of semi-aggressive promotions and free agents will be necessary. 

OF Trevor Hauver (26, 3rd)
No, but Hauver had a fine season in Round Rock after struggling mightily in 2024. 

RHP Dylan MacLean (23, 2nd)
Returning from elbow surgery, the 2020 4th-rounder had a respectable showing at high-A Hub City but will need to do that and more in AA to receive consideration. 

RHP Brock Porter (22, 1st)
To be honest, I hadn’t initially considered Porter because he was drafted out of high school in 2022, but he turned 19 two days before the cutoff, making him eligible this year to my knowledge. To be blunt, it doesn’t matter. MLB.com labeled him Texas’s toughest Rule 5 decision, but that’s just not the case. While he pitched well enough to maintain an on-field assignment in low-A after last year’s setback, that doesn’t even remotely translate to serious deliberation for a 40 spot.

LHP Bryan Magdaleno (24, 2nd) 
Magdaleno’s helium rise in 2024 put him in sincere contention for a 40 spot, but Texas and the league decided to wait and watch. Unfortunately, his control worsened from mediocre (14% BB+HBP rate) to calamitous (27%). 

RHP Gavin Collyer
Collyer actually became a free agent after the season. Keeping him around would have required a 40 spot before the end of the season or a new minor deal. He reaches the upper 90s and ranked very high on various “stuff” models, but that stuff didn’t get great overall results and was undercut by poor control. Collyer may yet reach his potential, but I can’t blame the Rangers for moving on. 

RHP Jose Gonzalez
Another free agent who’d crossed my mind as a 40 addition during the season, and someone I’d like to have back. I’m probably overvaluing him because I’ve been up to my ears in pitchers with awful control, and his is great. He’s probably good for 100+ quality upper-level innings somewhere in 2026. 

Arizona Fall League Wrap

Rangers-affiliated Surprise won the league championship tournament following a 16-10 regular season. In the final, RF Dylan Dreiling and CF Chandler Pollard entered midway and went 2-3, including Dreiling’s single to score Pollard as part of a seven-run rally.

Control has decayed in the minors, and fewer top-flight pitchers are assigned to the league than hitters. The results in 2025 were a combined walk and hit-batter rate of 17.1% and a league OBP of .391, both record highs. I’m offering a synopsis of Texas participants, but more than ever, I’d advise not reading too much into the performances. 

C Malcolm Moore
69 PA, .213/.275/.328, 4 doubles, 1 HR

Moore’s first full professional season wasn’t much fun. His hard-hit rate in the fall was adequate (42% compared to the 43% league average), but that contact was concentrated in the upper 90s, so his median and upper-level exit velocity was lacking. He also couldn’t take advantage of the wildness, swinging (and missing) more than average and drawing only three walks versus 22 strikeouts. 

OF Dylan Dreiling
55 PA, .271/.364/.438, 1 double, 2 triples, 1 HR

Dreiling’s fall was more fruitful and conducive to an April assignment to Frisco (to the extent the action here moves the needle). His hard-hit rate of 51% ranked 13th among 88 with at least 20 balls in play. 

IF/OF Chandler Pollard
50 PA, .289/.460/.342, 2 doubles, 10 walks, 8 SB

Pollard had a nice showing for a 21-year-old with virtually no experience above low-A. He hadn’t played in real games since mid-June following an injury immediately after promotion to high-A. His 36% swing rate and 10 walks in 12 games revealed a willingness to take what was given, which was plenty.  

C/1B Ben Hartl
31 PA, .125/.290/.208, 2 doubles, 4 HBP

Hartl’s statcast data was pretty grim, but he didn’t play often and I’m inclined to give him a pass. His specialty is getting hit, and he led the team with four HBP. 

IF Sebastian Walcott
5 PA, .500/.600/.750, double

Walcott departed early with forearm fatigue, replaced by Pollard. 

RHP Jose Corniell
18 IP, 7.50 ERA, 10% BB+HBP, 22% SO, .333/.402/.462 oppo line

Maybe I’m playing favorites, but I’m more interested in Corniell and Santos getting more post-injury work than how they performed. Fastball avg. 95.3, top 98.0, sinker 93.1, cutter 88.8, change 87.7, sweeper 81.1.

RHP Winston Santos
18.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 15% BB+HBP, 22% SO, .254/.365/.423 oppo

See above. Santos threw four-seamers 63% of the time, averaging 96 and peaking at 99.6. He added a slider (avg. 84.6) and change (87.4). 

RHP Emiliano Teodo
4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 31% BB+HBP, 38% SO, .000/.313/.000 oppo

Teodo made only four appearances, none after the season’s midway point, and he walked five in four innings. 

RHP Joey Danielson
6 IP, 7.50 ERA, 30% BB+HBP, 27% SO, .269/.486/.346 oppo

Danielson was a mildly surprising selection, as he’d handled a full workload by modern standards (56 relief innings) in his first season out of college. His control faltered near midseason and was worse than ever in the AFL. His velocity was fine (95 four-seamer and sinker, 89 cutter, 86 sinker). Rest, then regroup. 

LHP Kolton Curtis
7.2 IP, 11.74 ERA, 24% BB+HBP, 20% SO, .314/.478/.400

Curtis’s change and slider generated a huge miss rate but not a huge miss total, because batters weren’t compelled to swing very often. The 21-year-old has potential but lacks control, and the tougher environment (both in competition and physics) was just too much right now.

Staying
RHP Trey Supak, RHP Peyton Gray and IF Richie Martin have re-signed. All finished last season at Round Rock. 

I promise that wasn’t a clickbait headline, because I don’t operate that way, plus you’re already here. Let’s runs some numbers.

Texas scored 4.22 runs per game compared to an AL average of 4.42. Globe Life, however, was historically pitcher-friendly in 2025. Here’s Texas’ Lowest Single-Year Park Factors For Runs (100 = neutral):

Single-year factors can be noisy, so using multi-year averages is better. How to weigh prior (and even subsequent) years is a judgment call, but when I give half credit to 2025 and half to the previous two years combined, I get a multi-year factor of 94.7.¹  The AL average was 4.42 runs per game. Applying the multi-year park factor results in a league-average rate of 4.19 runs per game, the lowest for the Rangers in 44 years. I’d say this contributes strongly to the perception of the offense. The park-adjusted league average runs per game during The Ballpark In Arlington era (1994-2019) was 5.04. The difference between an average offensive season then and in 2025 is a whopping 137 runs.²

The Rangers scored 4.22 runs per game versus the park-adjusted average of 4.19, so by my accounting, they actually scored five more runs than average. If you think that sounds crazy, Baseball Reference has a multi-year park factor of just 89, which would place the offense firmly in above-average territory and on equal footing with the pitching! That factor is incredibly low and based on a methodology that troubles me.³ Fangraphs has a three-year park factor of 97, which appears to be a simple average of the previous three years. Regardless, the conclusion is that the Texas offense wasn’t that bad. It certainly was early in the season, but on the whole, it ended up more-or-less average. 

This doesn’t make me feel any better about the season. Quite the opposite. It’s the sour cherry atop the Sundae of Frustration that was 2025.

The Rangers didn’t have so much a scoring problem as a distribution problem. Foremost, they were 21-29 in one-run games, exceptionally unlucky for a team that outscored its opponents. Also, when they scored seven or more runs, the opposition averaged only 3.35 runs per game. When they scored six or fewer, the opposition averaged 3.82, nearly half a run greater. 

Compared to the rest of the league, the Rangers allowed an additional 0.64 runs per game when which they didn’t score as much. Only three teams (Athletics, White Sox, Astros) had a bigger margin. Note that this is just bad luck, not a flaw to be corrected. It’s not as though a team knows in advance how many runs in a season it will allow and can manipulate their apportionment to individual games. The Rangers had a .397 winning percentage when they scored six or fewer, actually a middle-of-the-pack rate, but all twelve playoff teams were better. 

The Rangers were the only team in baseball without a win when the opposition scored at least seven runs. Honestly, winning the occasional slugfest pales in importance to how often a team allows that many runs in the first place. You’d much rather be 0-16 (Texas) than 2-51 (Athletics), but still, Texas is only one of two teams in the past five years without a single victory of this type in a season.  

As you’d expect, Texas was shut out more than average, although not at a franchise-historic level.

Incidentally, Texas’s best seasons at avoiding shutouts were 2001 (1 shutout, 87% less than league average) and 2022 (4, 65% less). Both were losing seasons. 

A big problem, especially from an emotional viewpoint, is that Texas genuinely did come out of the gate limping and spent most of the season playing catch-up. Here’s Texas’s worst in-season 54-game stretches (one-third of a season) in terms of runs scored versus the league average:

Texas didn’t reach a league-average level until Game 135, following a 20-3 banishment of the Angels. 

The biggest problem is that hit-first additions Jake Burger and Joc Pederson were supposed to provide improvement over 2024, and instead they were very bad. Also bad: Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Zeke Duran, the expelled Leody Taveras. That’s a lot of bad. 

As for the 81-81 record, the rotation was blameless. The bullpen was pretty good in the aggregate, less so in the specifics. There were 452 events in MLB last year that changed a team’s win probability by at least 33%. Of these, Texas’s bullpen had the second-most events and the third-worst cumulative win probability. Much of that is a function of opportunity. By virtue of so many low-scoring games, Texas’s bullpen faced more higher-leverage situations than most teams. It’s understandable that Texas wouldn’t rank well in negative events. Still, a few less instances of this sort would have translated directly into a few more wins. 

And that’s where we’re at. Some better one-run luck, one or two fewer shutouts, one or two fewer bullpen meltdowns, a couple of crazy 10-8 wins, and voila, we’ve a playoff team. 

In 2022, Texas was 68-94 despite being outscored by only 36 runs, courtesy of a 15-35 record in one-run games. That underperformance did result in the firings of the president and manager, but I did not enter the offseason thinking Texas would be trying to build on a 68-win season. Instead, the club felt much more like it had won 77, it’s most likely number based on run differential.

Not so in 2025. Despite all I’ve said, I’m not telling you to believe me and ignore your lying eyes. Despite park factors, distribution issues and bad luck bearing at least as much responsibility for Texas’s offensive malaise as the players themselves, the Rangers definitely did not feel to me like an 89-win team that was simply unlucky. 81 wins felt like an accurate account of the season and the state of the franchise at present. Put another way, how does “Texas’s offense was just unlucky, just stand pat and things should even out” sound? Terrible, right? 

I haven’t delved deeper than runs scored because this is already too long, but Texas had a 95 OPS+ by my accounting. That’s a better starting point to me, and honestly, even that seems a bit generous. There’s work to do. 

Footnotes:
1. In my personal stat analysis, I also give a little credit to the subsequent year, but for my 2025 multi-year factor I have to wait for 2026 to play out. 

2. If you’re unfamiliar with park factors and think “well of course the park wasn’t hitter-friendly, because the offense was so terrible,” that’s understandable, but that’s not how they work. Factors don’t care about quality, they just measure the combined output from both teams in the home park versus output in all the road parks. And in fact, the Texas offense alone didn’t stray that far from neutral, scoring 327 runs at home versus 357 on the road. It was the pitching that created such a pronounced difference, with 250 runs allowed at home versus 355 on the road. 

3. Baseball Reference excludes interleague games in their calculations for the stated reasons of no DH in the NL and absence of home-and-home series in interleague contests. The first reason is no longer valid. The second is still mostly valid (teams do have one interleague home-and-home each year; for example, Texas and Arizona in 2025), but I think the solution of ignoring those games is worse than the problem of keeping them. Interleague games are 30% of the schedule. 48 games are an awful lot to ignore. As I said, park factors are “noisy,” and limiting the calculations to 114 games exacerbates that problem. As it happened, the Rangers and their NL opponents tended to score much more in Texas’s park than on the road in 2025, so ignoring those games tilts the park factor even more toward pitcher-friendliness. That’s why BR’s factor is so low. Keeping interleague games in the mix, as I did, implies some assumptions about NL vs. AL parks that may not be wholly accurate, but I prefer the extra data. Note that park factors are already slightly askew because the calculations assume a balanced schedule, which isn’t the case. 

The 40

During Game 7, Texas had 47 players on the 40-man roster including seven on the 60-day Injured List. So, management has a bear of a task to whittle the number to something reasonable to accommodate 40-man additions and free agents, right? 

Actually, no. Texas had an MLB-high 12 free agents, so the roster has already decreased to 35. The Rangers acquired two players via waivers or trade from the A’s (catcher Willie MacIver and RHP Michel Otanez) but also removed OFs Dustin Harris and Billy McKinney. 

Six Rangers are within multi-year deals: de Grom, Eovaldi, Higashioka, Pederson, Seager, Semien

Nine are arbitration-eligible: RHP Josh Sborz (3rd and final time), RHP Jacob Webb (2nd), C Jonah Heim (3rd/final), IF Jake Burger (1st),  IF Ezequiel Duran (1st), OF Adolis Garcia (3rd/final), OF Sam Haggerty (3rd/final). IF Josh Jung (1st), and IF Josh Smith (1st, after narrowly missing Super-2 status last year). 

Garcia regained about three-quarters of his 2023 form on defense but endured his worst-ever season at the plate. He ranked 137th of 145 qualifiers in Fangraphs’ batting runs. MLB Trade Rumors projected a 2026 arbitration salary of $12.6 million. Seeing that figure drew an immediate and audible “yipes” from me, not that any amount, even the maximum discount, would have elicited a “yes!” 

Heim’s projected salary is a more tolerable $6 million. His decision is complicated by a poor market for substitutes and utter lack of ready options on the farm. Still, among the 49 catchers with a combined 400+ plate appearances that past two seasons, Heim ranks dead last in batting runs and 45th in WAR (per Fangraphs). There’s an argument for non-tendering Heim without an obvious successor and picking the hottest of next spring’s depth signings for MLB work. The resulting production wouldn’t be any better, but it might not be much worse and would save several million that could be put to use elsewhere. 

Sborz will live in our hearts forever, but the blunt truth is he’s rarely been both healthy and effective, and he wasn’t close to MLB-readiness late last season. I’d be more inclined to work out a minor deal, if possible. I’d expect offers forthcoming for Jung and Burger, disappointing though they were. Not to make excuses, but Burger endured a lot mentally and physically in 2025 and deserves some sympathy, if not an outright mulligan. 

20 Rangers are under team control: pitchers Cody Bradford, Marc Church, Jose Corniell, Luis Curvelo, Robert Garcia, Dom Hamel, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Michel Otanez, Kumar Rocker, Winston Santos, Emiliano Teodo and Cole Winn, catcher Willie MacIver, IFs Justin Foscue and Cody Freeman, and OFs Evan Carter, Michael Helman, Wyatt Langford and Alejandro Osuna. 

I suppose all could be tendered, although a few have tenuous holds on their spots and would be ripe for designation or trade as Texas fills the roster. 

The just-acquired MacIver is catching depth. He reached the Majors at the age of 28 and batted .186/.252/.324 with three homers in 111 trips to the plate. His production in AAA was much better, if also inflated by Las Vegas. Otanez had a solid if walk-prone MLB debut in 2024 but was beset by injuries and ineffectiveness last season. He deals an upper-90s 4-seamer/sinker combo plus a slider. We’ll see whether the Rangers attempt to sneak them (and last-September claim Dom Hamel) through waivers. 

I’d written this before Harris was designated: “Harris had a vastly improved second half in AAA and earned a return to the 40, but the underlying metrics were still frustratingly underwhelming.” Even at his best, he just wasn’t putting much oomph on the ball. He’s still a worthy depth signing, though. 

As for potential 40 additions, I’ll deal with them later, but in general the “40-man roster crunch” is the least crunchy in memory. Texas has unusual leeway to add marginal cases, although that doesn’t mean you’ll see a glut of additions. 

Texas Minor League Free Agents

The following were originally signed by Texas or had been in the system long enough to be a “Texas guy:”
LHP: Jose Gonzalez, Avery Weems
RHP: Ben Anderson, Geraldo Carrillo, Gavin Collyer, Ryan Garcia,  Nick Lockhart, Florencio Serrano
C: Cooper Johnson
IF: Jax Biggers
OF: Marcus Smith, Kellen Strahm

This is the official release list; some others who are eligible (to my knowledge) do not appear. Collyer drew some attention with his upper-90s stuff, and I suppose he had a shot at being added to the 40 to prevent him from walking. Unfortunately, his control was quite poor, and unlike, say, prime-era Demarcus Evans or Joe Barlow, those extra baserunners tended to haunt him. Gonzalez signed in 2019 but didn’t begin making a name for himself until 2024; he’s a low-key back-end/long prospect who I’d be happy to have back. 

Weems was part of the Lance Lynn trade. Garcia was Texas’s second-round pick in 2019. Unfortunately, my main memory of him is throwing 110 pitches on three days rest in the NCAA tournament after he’d been drafted. Lockhart drew an outsized signing bonus as an 11th-rounder in 2019 but missed almost all of 2024-2025 to injuries. Texas was able to nab the highly regarded Serrano after MLB nullified his contract with the Cubs due to signing bonus shenanigans, but his years in Texas weren’t noteworthy beyond low-A. 

Also becoming free agents: LHP Ty Blach and Michael Plassmeyer, RHP Cory Abbott, Aidan Anderson, Joe Barlow and Cal Quantrill, C Elih Marrero and Omar Narvaez, IF Alex De Goti and Alan Trejo, and OF Luis Mieses.

Elsewhere

Baltimore signed OF Leody Taveras to a $2 million MLB deal. Tampa Bay declined the $11 option on reliever Pete Fairbanks. Caleb Boushley became a free agent after being outrighted. 

Pitchers CD Pelham, Jonathan Hernandez, Antoine Kelly,  Abdiel Mendoza, Nick Starr and Owen White, C Sam Huff, IF Jonathan Ornelas, Nick Solak, and David Wendzel, and OF Delino DeShields became free agents. San Diego released LHP Wes Benjamin. 

As you know, Texas recalled Josh Jung. He was terrific last night, but purely in terms of game performance at Round Rock, his return was hasty. While his strikeout rate was a reasonable 20%, he was very swing-happy, chasing 51% of pitches out of the zone, nearly double the league average. He walked once in 40 PA. He did homer twice… in Las Vegas. One would have left any park, the other maybe just a few. Of course, that’s only part of the equation. Time in the cage and a mental reset could be just as important. Notably, he spent 19 days on optional assignment, one shy of what triggers less than a full year of MLB service time. In his case, though, one more day wouldn’t matter much (barring future options) because he had two years plus 27 days entering the season. He would need to spend about seven weeks in the minors for Texas to claim another year of control.

The Rangers also signed top pick Gavin Fien. I’ll deal with that later. Oh, they also signed Carl Edwards Jr. to a minor deal, twelve years to the days after trading him. But now…

Top-30 Prospect Review

For this exercise, I’m using MLB Pipeline’s rankings because they’re not paywalled and available for anyone to see. Other publications sometimes have sharply differing opinions, and while I’m not much for numerical rankings myself, my thoughts entering the season often diverged as well. (Note the MLB list is different now; my list is from March.)

Keep in mind that most prospects don’t pan out, so a surplus of “down” rankings is almost inevitable. An up or down rating doesn’t necessarily correspond to a change in ranking; it’s just the change in my offseason impression.

1. SS/3B Sebastian Walcott (MLB No. 16)
Rating: even

He’s actually jumped from 16th to fourth in MLB’s top-overall rankings, but during the offseason many evaluators had written to the effect of “we might be undervaluing him and are prepared to bump.” Until last week, he’d endured a lengthy period of non-existent power offset by still-solid OBP. He’s not having the type of season that would bestow an Opening Day spot next March like Elvis Andrus, but he’s been fine.

2. RHP Kumar Rocker (MLB No. 43)
Rating: even

What a career. Vandy, the Mets, indy ball, his shocking selection by the Rangers, an initially inscrutable delivery, Tommy John, emergence of a 100 MPH heater and absolutely deathly slider now transformed and/or less used. Not every start has been a treat, and some of the underlying metrics are alarming, but he’s shown the possibility of becoming a rotation fixture.

As an aside, even though he sports a 5.82 ERA at present, I think the Ranger have to be happy with their decision. Recall the names under discussion at the time such as Brooks Lee, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green and Kevin Parada, all of whom would have been justified at the spot. Brooks has achieved a very busy utility role (including more shortstop than I envisioned) but isn’t hitting much. Johnson is still a quality prospect but not befitting where drafted. Parada, a college pick, is still trying to escape AA. Green, an early favorite to be taken 1-1, has been shipped to the complex and is in danger of washing out.

3. RHP Jack Leiter
Rating: up slightly

Leiter receives a higher grade than Rocker because of how I felt about him as a starting pitcher in March: unenthused. I had persevered through three topsy-turvy seasons, but as I listened to a third straight troublesome Spring start on the way home from Surprise, I thought “okay, this just isn’t going to work.” Stuff ratings don’t matter when the ball is outside or in the cheap seats and the pitch count has reached 60 in the 3rd. Instead, Leiter has made it work and has actually been reliable, after a fashion. He’s at least cleared the 3rd in every start, and about half his appearances have been of high quality. There’s plenty of blue (bad) in his Statcast chart, but at present he’s the type who can be happily relied on for 30 regular-season starts, if not a postseason start. In terms of opposing results, last year’s fastball was one of baseball’s worst, 11 runs below average all by itself in just 35 innings. In 2025, the four-seamer is league-average, and the new sinker six runs above. A remarkable improvement.

4. C Malcolm Moore
Rating: down slightly

Arguably unfair, as Moore suffered a broken finger that sidelined him for two months, but in the full year since he was picked, we just haven’t learned much. One worrying stat from his final year at Stanford was a .233 average on balls in play. That appeared fluky based on the underlying metrics, but in 228 professional trips to the plate, his BABIP is just .240 compared to the 2024-2025 league average of .303. Also, while catcher defense is impossible to measure from a distance, opposing runners have been busier and more successful against him than the league average and Hub City’s other two catchers. He did start well before the injury and has seven weeks to reclaim that form.

5. RHP Winston Santos
Rating: down slightly

After a terrific spring, Santos was skipped a week in Frisco and then IL’ed with a stress reaction in his back. Prior to the draft, the #5 ranking was fair, probably low with the subsequent graduations of Leiter and rocker, but I’d like to see him back on the mound.

6. RHP Emiliano Teodo
Rating: down

Teodo arguably pitched well enough to make the club in March, and after I watched two early Round Rock appearances, I wondered how many more chances I’d get. Since then: two IL stints, inconsistent velocity, wildly inconsistent control. Teodo hasn’t had an ordinary season since 2022. He very well could reappear as if the recent troubles never existed, but it’s hard to have any confidence right now. On the other hand, I’m not downgrading him for the shift from starting to relief, because the former always seemed unlikely.

7. RHP Alejandro Rosario
Rating: down slightly

I’d rank him higher than seventh – somebody has to fill out the 2-6 spots – and the injury was obviously known at the time of his ranking, so why a “down slightly” grade for him but not Izack Tiger or Jose Corniell? Mild uneasiness, I guess. Recall that Rosario was promoted to AA Frisco at the end of August but shut down without taking the mound. Then he faced a lengthy gap between diagnosis and surgery. We’re looking at no fewer than 20 months between real-game outings.

8. OF Alejandro Osuna
Rating: up

Osuna was in high-A 13 months ago, so he’s had quite the ride. He hasn’t hit much in the Majors so far, but his youth and the underlying metrics hint at improvement.

9. SS Yolfran Castillo
Rating: even

Castillo impressed me enough in March that I’d hoped for an assignment to Hickory. Perhaps rash on my part, but in any case, he stayed behind at the complex, where at least statistically the season has been a disappointment. He’s finding more power, but the contact is down, and the walk and strikeout rates have diverged sharply. I’m keeping him “even” because I’m going off very limited observations and don’t want to hang my hat on an Arizona stat line.

10. OF Dylan Dreiling
Rating: down slightly

With the exception of the now-departed Keith Jones, nearly every Hub City hitter has been a snooze. Sorry, but it’s true. The concept of this gig is to convey information, context and analysis you couldn’t find for yourself in a few seconds of scanning the boxes, and let me tell you, 2025 has been a challenge at times. Dreiling has walked plenty, hit eight homers and stolen 11 bases, but the sum is a line of .219/.312/.361. He has shifted from a wide, crouched stance to much more upright, so perhaps he’s adjusting to that.

11. OF Paulino Santana
Rating: even

See Castillo, Yolfran. Santana has grown into some power but is otherwise having an ordinary season statistically, but I’m not going to fret this early. The rookie season ends soon, and I’ll be interested to see how many youngsters receive an intro to full-season ball. Roster limits prevent Texas from putting the whole team on a flight to Charlotte, but hopefully a few will pop up.

12. RHP Jose Corniell
Rating: up slightly

Corniel made his post-TJ return to real games at the beginning of the month. Last Sunday he made his AA debut, delivering two scoreless, hitless innings with a four-pitch mix topped by fastball reaching 97. No reason to be anything but pleased.

13. LHP Kohl Drake
Rating: up slightly

Texas’s 11th-round pick from three years ago is a legitimate back-of-rotation candidate in AAA. Not a bad piece of business, that. Drake works upstairs with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and down with a curve, change and slider, a formula that has produced a 33% K rate in 2025. Opponents are hitting .292/.346/.438 in three AAA starts, but that line is cluttered with low-speed hits.

14. 1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz
Rating: down

Ortiz salvaged last year’s dismal start with a terrific finish that reminded of his breakout 2023. This year’s start wasn’t as slow, but that’s faint encouragement. Like Dreiling, Ortiz has some individually appealing figures including plenty of walks and a 20-homer pace, but he holds a bland line for a bat-or-bust prospect: .235/.341/.419, up significantly after a week in Amarillo and a strong weekend against the league’s worst team. He needs to be giving Texas League pitchers nightmares.

15. 2B/1B Justin Foscue
Rating: down

Entering the season, one could justify a ranking anywhere from around 10th to off the board entirely. For years, Texas’s roster moves have yelled “we have no spot for you unless you really, really hit,” and while he could probably hit in Triple A well into his 30s, his attempts against MLB pitching haven’t worked out at all. What he needs is a couple hundred plate appearances for the White Sox or Miami or Pittsburgh. Actually, needed, prior to his current age of 26 years, four months. In this organization, I think his time is at hand.

16. OF Yeremi Cabrera
Rating: even

Not for the first time among Texas prospects, the jump from the complex to tougher pitching and pitcher-friendlier parks has absconded with much of his power. He’s retained his batting eye and is walking plenty while capably manning center. #16 feels too high, but he’s accomplished enough to join Hub City next season.

17. OF Braylin Morel
Rating: down slightly

Morel was (to my knowledge) injured for a while, so I didn’t see him in Surprise, and he missed the first 17 games at the complex. He’s repeating the level as a 19-year-old, spending much of his time as a DH and performing demonstrably worse in all respects. Only down “slightly” because of the dubiousness of low-level stats and lack of information, but the available information isn’t comforting.

18. OF Anthony Gutierrez
Rating: down slightly

I wouldn’t have ranked him this high in the first place, so “down slightly” instead of simply “down.” With the important caveat that he’s still just 20 and has time, Gutierrez has been the (note: at this point, please pound your desk or the person next to you on the stressed syllables) EXACT SAME HITTER for three seasons despite a radical swing overhaul after ’23 seemingly designed to unleash power. Here’s his statistical ranges during 2023-2025:

Average: .241-.259
Isolated Power: .063-.079
BB+HBP: 9%-10%
SO%: 21.8%-22.2% (!!!)

He can reach Frisco this way and fill a “we need a guy” role in Round Rock, but beyond that, he’s going to have to take steps forward.

19. IF/OF Cameron Cauley
Rating: up slightly

The AA line isn’t electrifying (.248/.319/.406), and of course the bat will determine whether and how often you’ll see him on tv, but Cauley has the MLB tools for a utility role and is headed the right direction. Contact is a worry, but he has surprising pop for his frame, can play multiple up-the-middle positions capably and can run not just fast but intelligently.

20. OF Elorky Rodriguez
Rating: even

Not much to say at this point. He’s hitting well as a 17-year-old I the Dominican Republic.

21. LHP Mitch Bratt
Rating: up

Bratt has somehow improved on his already masterful control and owns the widest gap between strikeout and walk rates in the Texas League. Middling fastball velocity and lack of a one killer pitch limits his upside, but he mixes a broad repertoire very well. AAA beckons.

22. RHP Josh Stephan
Rating: down slightly

I wasn’t down on Stephan after 2024 but safely assumed he’d be left off the 40 and unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft. He can throw strikes all day, and his miss rate is above-average, yet his strikeout rate is ordinary at best. Despite an uptick in fastball velocity, he remains hittable in AA, and 2024’s reverse platoon split has not only persisted but worsened. Righties are hitting .325/.364/.552 with a homer every 16 plate appearances.

23. RHP Marc Church
Rating: down

Relievers, y’all. I’ve seen him enough over the years to have a firmer grasp of his situation than most players, but as of now, I’m grasping air. His road became bumpy once he reached AAA, and for a long while, I didn’t trust his fastball or consistency. Church deservedly earned a bullpen spot in Surprise, but his old issues reappeared immediately, and injuries have limited him to 11 innings across all levels.

24. RHP Paul Bonzagni
Rating: down

Suffered an elbow injury in April.

25. RHP Skylar Hales
Rating: even

I struggled between even and down slightly. He fanned a third of Texas League opponents and displayed good control, earning a promotion to AAA (which has gone poorly, but it’s early). An ongoing concern is the bad days, which every reliever has, but his tend to result in multiple runs more often than many of his peers, thus the 5.26 ERA in Frisco despite strong peripherals. Hales hasn’t done anything wrong, per se, but he arrived in Round Rock without an advantage over any number of would-be MLB relievers.

26. RHP Izack Tiger
Rating: even

Recovering from elbow surgery.

27. RHP David Hagaman
Rating: up slightly

Injured when drafted, Hagaman has returned to action and is stationed at low-A Hickory. Results have been spotty, but he’s throwing just fine and is set up well for an ordinary offseason and full year of work in 2026.

28. RHP Caden Scarborough
Rating: up

I was excited but cautious following my in-person view of Scarbrough at the Spring Breakout game. He featured a mid-90s fastball and 81-84 slider that flashed promise, although immediate results were nothing special. Unsurprisingly, he’s missed plenty of bats, but I never expected this long-limbed youngster with a noisy delivery to display even average control in 2025, much less what he’s actually achieved (9.2% BB/HBP vs league average of 13.6%). As good a season as could possibly be hoped for.

29. RHP Kolton Curtis
Rating: down slightly

His ERA jump from 2.85 ERA to 5.77 this year is mostly bad luck, but he’s walking or hitting 17% of opposing batters, up from last year. Even in 2025, that won’t do for a rotation role. He’s just 21 and has time.

30. RHP David Davalillo
Rating: up

Davalillo’s already strong walk and strikeout rates have improved even as he’s climbed the ladder. He’s recently added a cutter to his arsenal. One item to watch is his fastball velocity. I noticed a drop of 1-2 MPH toward the end of his AA debut in San Antonio, and the same occurred in his most recent start before the break. So far, his late-inning results haven’t suffered at all, and he’s treated Texas League batters with casual disdain.

I hit the send button on today’s report before checking for late news, that being Codi Heuer’s promotion to Arlington, so here’s a quick look.

Repertoire:
Four: 58%, avg 95.5, 95^th-pctile 97.0, 14” vert, 10” horiz
Slider: 36%, avg 85.3, not sweepy (0” vert, 4” horiz)
Change: 5%, avg 87.5, 8” vert, 15” horiz
Sinker: 2%, might be a misclassed four, similar speed with a little more horizontal, less vertical  

Very good extension

Good swinging strike rate (15% vs league 12%) and whiff rate (33% vs 26%), slightly better than avg. chase rate (31% vs league 28%)

59% whiff rate on slider (league 35%)

Hard-hit rate 38% (equal to league), 92.0 median exit (league 90.9), 105.0 90^th-pctile (league 104.1)

Better than average pop and ground rates

Oppo line .222/.326/.346, 14% BB/HBP, 26% SO

Delivery bugs me a little, no deception, ball very much on display throughout

Opening Day (Minor League Edition)

Round Rock’s season begins tonight at Seattle-affiliated Tacoma. Caleb Boushley has drawn the start, followed by David Buchanan and Adrian Houser. All are offseason signings at least nominally in the hunt for a starting role should the Rangers suffer even more injuries. At 31 years and 178 days old, Boushley is the youngest of the three. Last year’s opening weekend starters were Owen White, Michael Lorenzen (followed by Jack Leiter) and Adrian Sampson.

I neglected to mention yesterday that RHP Patrick Murphy will be added to the AAA injured list.  

Next Friday, Frisco opens at home against Corpus Christi, high-A Hub City begins its existence at Aberdeen in Maryland, and low-A Hickory makes the short trip to Kannapolis.

Now, the A-level rosters (MLB Pipeline top-thirty rankings in parentheses).

High-A Hub City Roster

Pitchers: Paul Bonzagni (24), Wilian Bormie, Seth Clark, Aidan Curry, Joey Danielson, David Davalillo (30), Mailon Felix, Jose Gonzalez, Larson Kindreich, Leandro Lopez, Dylan MacLean, DJ McCarty, Josh Mollerus, Victor Simeon, Anthony Susac, Josh Trentadue, Adonis Villavicencio

22-year-old David Davalillo (1.79 ERA, 22 walks, 79 K in 80 innings) and 23-year-old Jose Gonzalez (2.26 ERA, 20 walks, 117 K in 87 IP) manhandled the Carolina League last year and looked sharp last week. Paul Bonzagni was far from sharp in the Breakout Game but reached high-A in his first pro season last year and has appeared on some top-thirty lists. Josh Trentadue (2023, 14th round) nearly matched Davalillo and Gonzalez in terms of peripherals but was tagged with a 4.46 ERA. 2020 4th-rounder Dylan MacLean is back from elbow surgery.

Aidan Curry will attempt to bounce back from a devilish 2024. ’24 1th-round righty Joey Danielson, who put on a show when I visited Surprise, advances to high-A after 8.1 low-A innings. I would dearly love a fully healthy and progressive season from Leandro.

Catchers: Julian Brock, Malcolm Moore (4), Cal Stark

Not unexpectedly, Texas’s 2024 top pick will resume in high-A Hickory. He didn’t have a great showing in his pro debut, but I always recall Mitch Moreland’s inaugural season at short-A Spokane: .259/.308/.398, an 89 wRC+. He then became one of the best minor league hitters I’ve covered and a respectable MLB hitter as well. Debuts don’t always go well; not everyone is Wyatt Langford.

Brock batted .254/.318/.376 at low-A Down East, which sounds a slightly thin but is an above-average line for that league and park, and he’ll be 24 in June. Stark was an undrafted signing and teammate of Dylan Dreiling at Tennessee.

Infielders: Casey Cook, Danyer Cueva, Arturo Disla, Gleider Figuereo, Esteban Mejia

2024 3rd-rounder Cook didn’t hit much at Down East, but refer to my Moreland comment above. Cook also barely played second base at UNC but hasn’t moved off the bag as a pro.

The 20-year-old Figuereo’s 20 homers co-led the system (along with Blaine Crim) in 2024, but in other respects a midseason promotion to high-A proved stressful on his batting output, and lefties have always eaten his lunch. He responded well in repeating low-A last April, so hopefully he does the same this season.

The already large Disla got even larger over the winter, and, well… he’s not going to play shortstop so who cares. He needed almost six weeks to bop his first homer in 2024 but ended up with 19 and hit .274/.349/.458 overall.

Outfielders: Dylan Dreiling (10), Anthony Gutierrez (18), Keith Jones, Quincy Scott, Marcus Smith

Dreiilng, last year’s second-rounder, drew walks in 18% of his plate appearances but batted .198 and slugged .279. I wouldn’t want to demean him with the “passive” epithet, but the combination of his patience and a bevy of control-impaired opposition might have pushed him a little in that direction. as for contact, Dreiling’s 4% swinging strike rate was the lowest in the entire system.

A year ago, Gutierrez won a mildly surprising promotion to high-A after getting by as an 18-year-old at Down East. He hit about the same last year but will repeat this time. Gutierrez morphed into seemingly more power-oriented approach last year but actually dropped from two homers in 2023 to just one.

Money-saving senior sign Keith Jones (2024, 9th round) clobbered the ball at very hitter-friendly New Mexico State (the entire team posted a 3/4/5 slash).

Low-A Hickory Roster

Pitchers: Ismael Agreda, Angel Anazco, J’Briell Easley, Brooks Fowler, Thomas Ireland, Nick Lockhart, Eric Loomis, Aneudis Mejia, Alberto Mota, Dalton Pence, Kamdyn Perry, Brock Porter, Luke Savage, Caden Scarborough (28), Michael Valverde, Kai Wynyard

Headline: 2022 4th-rounder (but paid like a 1st-rounder) Brock Porter received a full-season assignment. Recall that he was pulled after three extremely wild high-A starts last year, after which he pitched sporadically and no better at the complex. In terms of official games, he was shut down in late July. Unfortunately, I didn’t get a look at him in Surprise.

Agreda, Fowler (2024, 15th round) and Valverde are new to the level, and 11th-rounder Dalton Pence and undrafted ex-Jayhawk J’Briell Easley will be making their pro debuts. That’s not many pure newcomers, but another five (Anazco, Loomis, Mejia, Perry, Scarborough) have faced fewer than 30 batters at the level.

The 19-year-old Perry is the youngest on the roster, a 2023 17th-rounder. A few months older and the one ranked prospect, Scarborough has delivered fastballs consistent in mid-90s velocity but inconsistent in direction. Agreda (21) caught my eye last March with an unhittable performance: half unhittable because he was so good, half because he was missing the zone by literal feet. He’s still pretty skinny and dialing it up to 98.

Catchers: Beycker Barroso, Ben Hartl, Jesus Lopez

As an 18-year-old, Jesus Lopez batted a robust .299/.353/.441 for two months but then crumbled to dust (.155/.237/.214 thereafter) and missed six weeks to injury. Ben Hartl had a fun debut, hitting .324/.481/.432 in 14 low-A games and grabbing a couple of hits for a depleted Round Rock team down the stretch. The 22-year-old Barroso hardly caught in 2025, instead spending the most time at first.

Infielders: Pablo Guerrero, Antonis Macias, Luis Marquez, Rafe Perich, Chandler Pollard

A common occurrence in recent years is Texas’s international hitters destroying the complex league only to belly-flop their first dive into full-season ball. I’d guess a combination of weather (cooler and more humid outside Arizona), park (Down East was a deeply pitcher-friendly park in a pitcher-friendly league), and talent gap (no more short-season ball). Guerrero, Macias, and outfielders Cabrera and De Jesus all saw their production plummet upon arrival. In the final quarter of 2024, after most of the better hitters had moved on, Down East averaged 3.3 runs per game, poor even for the environment. The many repeaters will try to improve at the more forgiving stadium in Hickory.

22-year-old 3B Rafe Perich (2024, 7th round) is at least two years older than every other infielder and could be the quickest to advance despite limited pro experience. (That could also depend on the progress of Figuereo, who has spent all but four games in his career at third.)

Chandler Pollard (2022, 5th round) is repeating the level as a 20-year-old. He spent most of 2024 at 2B in favor of since-traded Echedry Vargas, but I don’t recall seeing him anywhere but shortstop last week in Arizona.

Conspicuously absent from this list is IF Yolfran Castillo, who impressed greatly in Surprise. He has only 15 games of complex experience but stood out among the contenders. Maybe he’ll await more Arizona games, or maybe he’s nursing an injury.

Outfielders: Yeremi Cabrera (16), Jose De Jesus, Max Martin, Wady Mendez, Marcos Torres

The 19-year-old Cabrera has drawn strong reviews for his combination of power and speed, but much to my aggravation, I have witnessed hardly any evidence of it in two Marches in Surprise. Perhaps I’m the problem, although fans in Kinston mostly saw what I saw last year (.185/.298/.247).

The returning Torres’s nearly barren April and August of 2024 included ten-game stretches with just one hit. He did lead the team with 38 walks (a solid 11% rate) as a 19-year-old. Also 19 for a little while longer, Martin (2023, 11th-round) didn’t hit especially well at the complex but as a third-year pro has to prove he can hang at a higher level.

Departures

A host of players from yesterday’s “unassigned” list have been released:

RHP Tim Brennan (2018, 7th round) – For a little while, he had a narrow path to the Majors as a control/command long reliever, but he missed the end of 2022 and all of 2023 to elbow surgery, and his control disappeared upon return to Round Rock.

RHP Bryan Chi – 26-year-old Cuban employed as an across-the-system fill-in last year.

RHP Reid Birlingmair – Signed from indy ball in 2023, Birlingmair quickly impressed enough to become an honest-to-goodness relief prospect, but two tilts at PCL hitters went poorly.

RHP Jacob Maton – An undrafted sign from Coastal Carolina, good control but hittable in high-A.  

RHP Ivan Oviedo – Used low-A Down East as a home base with “just in case” trips to Hickory and Round Rock during 2024.

RHP Andy Rodriguez – Cuba-born, signed out of Miami Dade College, spent last year at Frisco. I referred to him yesterday as Adrian, a different pitcher who finished last year at Hickory and is also unassigned to my knowledge. Sorry about the mix-up.

LHP Justin Sanchez (2022, 18th round) – Signed out of high school for the maximum that doesn’t impact the draft cap ($125,000). 50 strikeouts in 43 low-A innings as a 20-year-old but walk-prone.

OF Yosy Galan – I’ve been doing this for a day or two, and I knew full well that Galan’s plate approach might shipwreck him before he reached AA, but for a while, I was a big fan. Galan has 17 homers and 23 steals per 100 games played, and his wiry athleticism is a joy to watch. He actually walked at an acceptable rate, but 20% of his pitches resulted in a swinging strike. 24 next month, Galan would have been repeating high-A (and to be honest, I’d expected him to get a shot).

OF Tommy Specht (2022, 6th round) – Last March, I suggested Specht ought to improve on his .288 slugging percentage because of a solid line-drive rate and acceptable K rate. He just seemed unlucky. Repeating low-A last year, Specht slugged .219.

RHP Bryce Bonnin, C Brandon Martorano – offseason pickups

Elsewhere

Texas’s Opening Day lineup of hitters played a combined 1,086 MLB games in 2024.  Miami’s hitters had a combined 1,059 MLB games in their entire careers. Former Express and Rangers OF Derek Hill was among them. Rule 5 pick Liam Hicks did not play. They beat the Skenes-led Pirates 5-4, so here’s to inexperience, I guess.

Five Years Ago Yesterday? Absolutely Not.

“I chilled in an Intex pool in my backyard, listened to depressing music, doomscrolled and sipped tequila. No minor league games were played.” *

Five years ago was 2020. Instead of re-running the above every day, I’ve created a special quasi-daily feature I hope you’ll enjoy. I might still reprise some of my intermittent 2020 content.

* In fairness, I also biked often and everywhere because the roads were so uncluttered. I was undoubtedly in the best shape of my post-40-years-old existence during the summer of 2020.

Texas’s four full-season squads announced their opening rosters yesterday. I’ll cover the top levels today and the rest tomorrow. Top-thirty rankings from MLB Pipeline are in parentheses. I’ve updated my rosters and org info here. But first:

Diamond Pod!

On Tuesday, Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid and I discussed our anxiety about the rotation possibly undercutting some favorable predictions among statistical models and pundits, Evan Carter, and what did or didn’t impress us during our trips to Surprise. Links are in my signature.

AAA Round Rock Roster

Pitchers: Dane Acker, Joe Barlow, Caleb Boushley, David Buchanan, JT Chargois, Luis Curvelo, Dane Dunning, Matt Festa, Codi Heuer, Nolan Hoffman, Adrian Houser, Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington, Michael Plassmeyer, Daniel Robert, Hunter Strickland, Emiliano Teodo (6), Cole Winn

The top newcomer is Teodo, who spent last year at AA Frisco and impressed enough in Surprise to throw short, high-leverage relief deep into March despite ostensibly being a rotation prospect. (He probably is a reliever in due course, but we’ll see.) Joining from Frisco are Dane Acker (twice a 40-man groomsman, not yet a groom) and offseason free-agent acquisition Luis Curvelo. On the 40 along with Teodo and Curvelo are Latz, Pennington, Robert and Winn. Dane Dunning was successfully outrighted.

Who is starting for this squad? Several have in the past or worked swing roles, but literally everyone is a potential relief candidate. We might see plenty of bullpen nights and/or tandem-esque usage in lieu of a traditional rotation. My “job” will be to assess who’s standing out as a potential call-up and whether any 40 spots are in jeopardy.

In late news, recently signed Patrick Corbin was assigned to AAA.

Catchers: Tucker Barnhart, Konner Piotto, Chad Wallach

Texas lost Sam Huff and Matt Whatley and didn’t have anyone in the system ready to advance. Thirtysomethings Barnhart and Wallach will jockey for first place should one of the big-league catchers suffer an injury. Piotto is a 2021undrafted signing who might bounce around various levels as needed.

Infielders: Blaine Crim, Justin Foscue (15), Cody Freeman, Jonathan Ornelas, Alan Trejo

Crim, Foscue and Ornelas are the very familiar faces, all beginning their third years at the level. Crim is in his last year before free agency, Ornelas is on his last option, and Foscue (now 26) is probably on his last chance to make an impression. Up from Frisco is Cody Freeman, who’ll play plenty of third and a little second. Freeman’s prospect status took a hit when he stopped catching, but his strong infield defense and best season at the plate in 2024 still make him someone to watch.

Outfielders: Evan Carter, Dustin Harris, Sam Haggerty, Trevor Hauver, Kellen Strahm

The primary story in this group is Evan Carter’s progress. His statcast data will be critical. I’m looking for better contact rates against lefties and better exit velos across the board.

The former CIF Harris has improved to competency in the outfield but has yet to repeat his breakout 2021 at the plate. His mild exit velocity is a concern, although he did smack the hardest-hit ball of his career (at least as measured by Statcast) a couple of weeks ago. MLB Pipeline dumped him completely out of their top thirty, but Baseball America holds more hope with a #19 ranking.

Strahm is a strong AAA OF who would need some breaks to reach the Majors and probably would have better odds in a different organization. Hauver was frankly awful in last season’s first four months and outstanding the final two.

AA Frisco Roster

Pitchers: Robby Ahlstrom, Ben Anderson, Mitch Bratt (21), Gavin Collyer, Kohl Drake (13), Peyton Gray, Skylar Hales (25), Stephen Jennings, Ryan Lobus, Travis MacGregor, Bryan Magdaleno, Daniel Missaki, Winston Santos (5), Josh Stephan (22), Trey Supak, Avery Weems

Not a single pitcher finished last year at a lower level, but Bratt, Collyer, Drake, Lobus and Magdaleno all advanced from high-A fairly late in 2024. Among the likely starters, Santos had a terrific spring including a dominant Breakout Game start, and I saw strong outings from Bratt and Stephan. I didn’t see Drake, but he’s another starter who might reach the Majors. Hales and Magdaleno form a solid relief duo.

A few of these guys have pitched in AAA, and Ahlstrom certainly belongs there but presumably was crowded out temporarily. Gray, MacGregor, Missaki and Supak are offseason signings.

Catchers: Cooper Johnson, Tucker Mitchell, Ian Moller

22-year-old Ian Moller gets a sink-or-swim promotion. The 2021 fourth-rounder has always reached at an impressive rate (career .344 OBP) but has shown little when he swings; he actually has more walks (173) than hits (165). Johnson is a capable undrafted sign. Mitchell has sometimes batted well enough to warrant extra plate appearances at first, but last year both high-A and AA challenged him.

Infielders: Cam Cauley (19), Frainyer Chavez, Alex De Goti, Abimelec Ortiz (14), Keyber Rodriguez, Sebastian Walcott (1)

Cauley’s promotion surprised me, but on further review it makes more sense. On the whole, Cauley backslid modestly from the previous year, and injuries limited him to 93 games. In his favor, from July onwards he batted .243/.316/.497 with 10 homers in 43 games, and he improved on what had become an alarming tendency to strike out. Cauley makes noisy contact, the question is how often.

Ortiz will try to maintain last year’s second-half surge. His stats and underlying data in March were solid, while I saw one beefy homer and some fearsome (in a bad way) hacks through breaking stuff. Chavez and Rodriguez are re-signed free agents. You’ve probably heard of Sebastian Walcott.

Outfielders: Josh Hatcher, Luis Mieses, Alejandro Osuna (8), Aaron Zavala

Osuna deserves a Triple A assignment on the merits, so in that respect I’m disappointed, but some additional time in Frisco isn’t worrying. Round Rock has five outfielders already, and though their prospect statuses might vary, they all deserve to be there, and none will be collecting dust on the bench. In Round Rock he’d be part of a rotation, whereas in Frisco he won’t have anyone crowding him for playing time.

Hatcher, Mieses and Zavala are holdovers from 2024. The 26-year-old Hatcher batted .300/.350/.448 last year and earned an end-of-season promotion to AAA, and he could return if some room is created.

Unassigned To Date (listed by where they finished 2024)

AAA pitchers: Aidan Anderson, Reid Birlingmair, Tim Brennan, Ryan Garcia, Nick Krauth

AA pitchers: Bryce Bonnin, Bryan Chi, Jackson Kelley, Adrian Rodriguez

High-A pitchers: Jacob Maton, Mason Molina, Ivan Oviedo, Florencio Serrano

Low-A pitchers: Kolton Curtis, Jake Jekielek, Janser Lara, Justin Sanchez

Position Players: IF Jax Biggers (AAA), IF Theo Hardy (AAA but mostly hi-A), C Brandon Martorano (AA), OF Yosy Galan (hi-A), IF Erick Alvarez (lo-A)

Transactions

Texas released OF Cody Thomas, who spent last year in Japan following brief MLB spells with Oakland in 2022 and 2023.

Elsewhere

Sam Huff has won the battle for San Francisco’s #2 catcher spot over Max Stassi, with some assistance from perpetually injured would-be #2 Tom Murphy, who played only 13 games last season and is currently out for an unspecified time with a back injury.

Philadelphia designated RHP Tyler Phillips for assignment, and he’s been acquired by the Marlins. He’s out of options and will join their big-league roster, partly because they’ve suffered some injuries, and partly because they’re the Marlins. Phillips debuted for his boyhood team last summer, nine years after he was drafted.

RHP Mason Englert has made Tampa Bay’s Opening Day roster. The Rays acquired him in trade after Detroit designated him for assignment. Non-roster invite Jonathan Hernandez was in the hunt but apparently will head to AAA Durham.

OF Travis Jankowski made the White Sox.

RHP David Robertson remains unemployed.

Dunning Waived

Per Joel Sherman of the NY Post, Texas has placed righty Dane Dunning on outright waivers. Dunning will make $2.66 million this season, not a princely sum in itself but important in terms of Texas’ strong desire to avoid a third consecutive luxury tax. I’m not optimistic about a pure claim, even though he has an option, but perhaps the Rangers can finesse a trade that saves a portion of his salary. My understanding, per Article VI. E. (3)*, of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, is that Dunning is due his full salary because he and the Rangers reached an agreement prior to an arbitration hearing. Also, for tax purposes, per XXIII. C. (2) (b) (iii) (f), “Any Uniform Player’s Contract that is assigned outright to a Minor League club shall be included in the Club’s Actual Club Payroll.”

Dunning has been held in disfavor for a while, getting optioned late last season, accepting a maximum 20% pay cur last fall, and facing a third and final optional assignment this spring. I assumed he would claim a long spot with even a barely passable performance, but since back-to-back two-inning scoreless appearances he’s been bombed, giving up 20 runners and ten runs in seven innings. The underlying Statcast data isn’t as alarming but certainly doesn’t acquit him. Three of his four homers allowed were no-doubters by my accounting, and much of the contact was squared.

Still, I didn’t see this coming this soon. I was considering DFA possibilities just last night, as one does. Texas has several recently optioned pitchers (three come to mind) who lack Dunning’s prior MLB success and will have to improve in AAA to have a chance at getting back to Arlington outside an emergency. What about IF Jonathan Ornelas (although I like him and think he still has a chance), or even IF Justin Foscue (a former first-rounder but struggling this spring and buried on the depth chart)? No, Texas chose Dunning. (Note that technically, Dunning has not been designated yet, just waived.)

In 2023, a noteworthy year for the organization as you might recall, Dunning led the Rangers in innings and ranked second among pitchers in wins above replacement.

Surprise, Wednesday and Thursday

Above-slot 11th-rounder Dalton Pence gave me a better look on Wednesday than the previous Sunday. The fastball gained a tick to a steady 93, and his induced vertical break often exceeded 20 inches, which is elite. It hummed over several bats and completed at least two strikeouts.

Righty Leandro Lopez pitched to form: exciting and erratic. He would run multiple fastballs (95-96) and curves (low 80s) far too high, then induce a pitiful swing on something perfectly placed. I also saw a couple of high-80s changes. 23 in June and eligible for the Rule 5 draft if unprotected, Lopez has tempted for some time but has to display better control to separate from the pack.

Righty Josh Mollerus, acquired for DFAed reliever Yerry Rodriguez last summer, had an ugly season at high-A Hickory: 5.40 ERA with a .256/.359/.522 opposing line including six homers in 23 innings. He has the ingredients for better, at least from what I saw Thursday: a 92-93 four-seamer with impressive vertical and horizontal movement, a mid-80s slider, a cutter, and a change. Some of the sliders were sharp; some were served on a platter.

24-year-old righty Victor Simeon, around since 2019, mixed a mid-90s four and two-seamer, mid-80s slider and change. When he caught my eye last March, I believe I only saw a four and slider. He was effective if walk-prone at low-A Down East and at the very end of the season reached high-A, where I expect he’ll return.

I got my first look at 22-year-old Jesus Mosquera, about whom I knew nothing entering the day. Looking him up afterwards, I found someone who hadn’t thrown in a real game since 2022 and with beyond-calamitous results: four innings, nine hits, 24 walks and four hit batters in the Dominican League. He did walk a batter in two innings but generally showed no worse control than the average low-level pitcher you’d run across in March. He offered a 94 fastball and 83-87 slider which was erratic but missed several bats.

21-year-old righty Jormy Nivar is the anti-Mosquera on paper: healthy in 2023-2024 and with 18 walks and 80 strikeouts in 76 DSL innings. A skinny 6’3”, Nivar cleanly delivered a 92-93 sinker with substantial horizontal movement, a mid-80s slider, and an upper-80s change. I’d guess both Nivar and Mosquera will await the start of rookie ball, although I suppose the they have a shot at low-A.

I watched a little of 2023 17th-round righty Kamdyn Perry from Bishop Gorman High in Las Vegas (former home of Joey Gallo, among others). The inning I saw was ultimately rolled (cut short of three outs), but he offered horizontal movement in the high teens on both his sinker (91-93) and sweeper (76-79). Perry reach low-A late last season

As for the hitters, here’s video of Sebastian Walcott collecting two hits.

IF Yolfran Castillo unexpectedly played in Thursday’s AAA game and carried himself well, exhibiting a patient approach, reaching safely on a walk and firm single and stealing a bag. A young 18, he should be headed to low-A Hickory.

Among those I saw frequently, 2024 seventh-round 3B Rafe Perich continued to impress, again giving me tedious video of bad pitch after bad pitch ignored for a ball. The downside is we probably won’t really know much about him until he reaches AA and faces pitchers with more consistent control. He did exhibit some impressive line-drive swings, so I don’t want to suggest he’s nothing but eye.

The best power I saw during the last two days came from 19-year-old Dominican Kleimir Lemos, who played all over the infield last year but looks like a corner to me. He smacked a high pitch that didn’t need Arizona’s atmosphere to leave the grounds, and by raising up to meet the ball square, he didn’t seem to have any lower body contributing to that blast. He later doubled solidly. Last year, Lemos reached America after tearing up the DSL for a little while. In the complex league he struck out 20 times against zero walks in 78 trips to the plate. So… there’s that, but he can drive the ball!

Transactions

The Rangers released RHP Jesse Chavez, who arguably held an advantage over numerous non-roster competitors for a bullpen spot in Arlington, but even he had to earn it and could not. As required by the CBA, the Braves immediately signed him to a minor deal.

Texas signed reliever Hunter Strickland on the 15th, released him Friday, and re-signed him yesterday.

The Rangers released OF Nick Ahmed.

Elsewhere

Rule 5 pick Liam Hicks will make the Marlins. The former Texas catcher was part of last year’s trade with Detroit for catcher Carson Kelly. The Tigers left him unprotected (Texas would have as well, I believe), and Miami nabbed him second overall. Hicks batted to form this spring, .222/.417/.259 with more walks than strikeouts.

Out-of-options ex-Ranger Sam Huff and NRI Max Stassi are fighting for the SF #2 catcher job into the waning moments.

* “Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in Article IX, a tendered arbitration eligible Player (as defined in paragraph (1) above and confirmed by the Parties pursuant to paragraph (2) above) who reaches a confirmed agreement with his Club on salary for the following season prior to the matter being heard by the arbitration panel shall be eligible for in-season termination pay as set forth in Article IX(C) (i.e., in the full amount of the agreed upon paragraph 2 salary for the upcoming season) in the event the Player’s contract is terminated by his Club under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player’s Contract for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability prior to Opening Day.”