Reunions
RHP Luke Jackson (33 on Opening Day)
I saw Jacksonās sixth professional outing in person at Hickory, a five-inning, one-run, ten-strikeout performance against Yankees-affiliated Charleston. He was 19. I was not 19 and am now old enough to consider his current age of 33 young. To be honest, as he approached the Majors, he didnāt look like a great bet to reach eight years of service, but heās achieved them with a mix of perseverance, occasional dominance, injuries, and some choppy seasons. When in form, his money pitch is a slider, which he didnāt throw as a Ranger, although his curve had enough tilt/bend to pass for one. Fittingly, his slider could pass for a (very hard) curve, as it doesnāt break much laterally but has an extra six to eight inches of drop versus the league average.
RHP Joe Barlow (29)
Barlow hasnāt pitched in the Majors since being designated for assignment and lost to Kansas City in August 2023. The Royals immediately optioned him to AAA Omaha and later snuck him through waivers. Barlow signed a minor deal with the White Sox last winter but spent much of the season on the shelf and was released from AAA Charlotte last July. Peak, healthy Barlow is a credible MLB reliever, if not a competitor for his former closing role. His likelihood of making the Opening Day roster is awfully slim, but regaining past form and a place near the front of the AAA depth line isnāt out of the question.
Trivia: Barlow is the only pitcher in MLB history with at least 20 saves and fewer than 80 career innings.
A Crowd
So, youād like a job pitching in relief for the Texas Rangers. Take a number.
Texas has acquired six experienced free-agent relievers this offseason: Shawn Armstrong, Robert Garcia, Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb. Letās assume all make the Opening Day active roster*, leaving only two open bullpen spots. Who are the contenders (besides you, of course)?
Assuming a rotation front-four of deGrom/Eovaldi/Mahle/Gray, Cody Bradford and Kumar Rocker are fighting for the final starting spot. Bradford is more likely to slide into a relief role if not in the rotation, while Rocker would probably head to Round Rock to continue in a starting role.
Texas has eight other relievers on the 40 with MLB experience: Marc Church, Dane Dunning, Gerson Garabito, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Walter Pennington, Daniel Robert and Cole Winn. All have options. Dunning finished 2024 in a ditch but has the lengthiest resume. Iād think Leiter is destined for Round Rockās rotation unless his spring performance absolutely compels a big-league bullpen role. Among the others, Church has the most upside, and Iām sure the Rangers would love him to stake a claim immediately, as he nearly did last March. The remaining five fall into a different category, probably jockeying for first dibs on up-and-down roles and the chance to prove long-term inclusion.
Texas also has six in camp on minor deals who pitched in the Majors in 2024: Caleb Boushley, David Buchanan, Jesse Chavez, JT Chargois, Matt Festa and Adrian Houser. The ageless Chavez enters as the favorite among this group, although Chargois also pitched well last year. As long as weāre here, weād might as well toss in Barlow, ex-Cub Codi Heuer (hurt last year), and contenders already in the system like Robby Ahlstrom, Dane Acker and Skylar Hales.
Oh, Texas also has Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo on the 40. Both are nominal starters with no experience above AA, but with strong springs they could make some noise. Finally, the Rangers signed free-agent reliever Luis Curvelo straight to the 40, but he too has yet to reach AAA.
So, 25 players (plus you) competing for two spots. Thatāsā¦ thatās a lot. Every year, the Rangers (and everyone else) sign more players than they can possibly use, and every year I try to figure out whoāll be cut and whoāll be assigned where. This year, the task of assigning those last two bullpen spots and the 15-16 pitching spots in both AAA and AA will be as tough as any I can recall. Sure, some will hang around on the Injured List, but keep in mind that once the season starts, the Rangers will be limited to 165 domestic minor leaguers, and players on the ordinary (not 60-day or full-season) IL do count against that total.
Incidentally, ārealā games commenced yesterday. In a 5-2 loss to the Royals, Dunning fanned two and allowed a hit in two scoreless innings. Garabito (1 H, 1 BB) and Ahlstrom (1 H, 1 SO) provided a scoreless single frames.
* Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball: āIām not convinced both Webb and Armstrong make the roster.ā Fair enough, but letās just assume so for now, plus one extra spot doesnāt change the discussion that much.
Fifty
Adolis Garcia wants to hit fifty homers. Super. On Bluesky, I offered: ā30 homers, a .320 OBP, and donāt run in on semi-sharp flies that end up one-hopping the wall. Thatās about 3.5 wins. Thatās the goal.ā
On further review, that production doesnāt reach 3.5 wins above replacement, not without, say, 2023-level fielding or unforeseen improvement in contact. With 600 plate appearances, a .250/.320/.481 line, 30 homers, and league-average baserunning and fielding, heāll land at around 2.8 WAR* (assuming run production inputs don’t change substantially from last year). That’s lower than what I suggested before doing the math but still a huge improvement over his roughly replacement-level 2024. Iād be thrilled.
For 3.5 WAR, heād need an extra five homers (raising his slugging percentage to .509. approximating his previous best) plus a slightly above-average combo of running and fielding. Not likely, but not an absurd projection. If Garcia hits 50 homers and matches prior bests in average, doubles, walks, fielding and running, heāll reach 6.7 WAR. Absurd, but a fun daydream.
If you peruse his statcast data, you can talk yourself into almost any outcome for 2025 (except maybe 6.7 WAR). His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barreling were still strong last year. He underperformed his expected production. His fielding outs above average fell from the 82nd percentile in 2023 to 1st (meaning last); surely a healthier knee will remedy that. Conversely, some players simply age poorly, and Garcia might be among them. At the least, itās not unreasonable to discount his outlying 2023 (best OBP by 28 points, best slugging by 52) in any 2025 projection.
I am hopeful that Garcia can be at least good enough not to worry about. Something akin to 2022 at the plate plus adequate running and fielding would be worth a shade under two wins.
* I said 2.6 on Bluesky, but Iāve refined the calculations.
Elsewhere
The White Sox claimed RHP Owen White off waivers from the Yankees. In the span of three weeks, Whiteās Spring Training destination changed from Arizona to Florida to Arizona.
Ex-Rangers righty Mason Englert, designated for assignment by Detroit, was traded to Tampa Bay for high-A lefty Drew Sommers.
RHP Andrew Heaney signed a one year, $5 million contract with the Pirates. Pittsburgh also released RHP Yerry Rodriguez and designated RHP Brett de Geus for assignment. Rodriguez had signed early in the offseason.