Rangers Farm Report

Rosario Out

Per local reports, RHP Alejandro Rosario has an elbow injury that will likely require season-ending surgery. Rosario entered the season as baseball’s #39 prospect per FanGraphs, #50 per MLB.com, #64 per The Athletic, and #72 per baseball Prospectus.

I saw the word “acute” in reference to his injury, but some worrisome events preceded this news. Rosario was promoted to AA Frisco in early September but was shut down with fatigue before making an appearance. He was also absent from the invite list to Major League camp. Not that the Rangers were obliged, but I was expecting him on it.

Jack Leiter’s Sinking Outlook

Hey, I can do clickbait headlines, too. In 2024, Leiter threw 1,028 four-seam fastballs and zero sinkers. In his Saturday debut: 13 four-seamers, seven sinkers. The latter were originally classified as fours but later changed, and yes, they’re really sinkers, averaging about a tick lower in velocity with less vertical break and 12”-17” of horizontal break. They ran middle-to-high and mostly within the zone.

His regular fastball averaged 98.8 and topped at 99.9. Locationally, it had the spray that dampens its effectiveness, either too high to offer at or mid-mid. Yes, its late February and his first outing, but I’m noting for future reference. Leiter’s fastball ranks highly in Stuff models but had a league-worst value of -16 runs in 2024, even though he threw only 35 innings. Not today but before long, the only meaningful stats will be the results.

Another Signing

Texas signed 36-year-old Kevin Pillar to a minor league deal. Despite intending to retire after last season, he’s aged pretty well and wouldn’t be the worst guy to have around. He can still defend, run, and get a hold of an occasional pitch. He’s never walked much, and the loss of 40 points of batting average from his prime undercuts his utility. Since 2022, he has a power-oriented, OBP-averse line against lefties (.250/.261/.472) and not much of anything against righties (.173/.250/.292).
 
Your New Spring Training Overlord

Through Sunday, MLB’s spring leader in homers and slugging percentage (min. 5 plate appearances) is none other than OF Trevor Hauver, who has a double and two homers in five trips to the plate. Through August 11 last season, Hauver was hitting .195/.305/.305 with a 33% strikeout rate, frankly the kind of performance that might get a 25-year-old released. In his final 29 games, Hauver reached safely in 27 and batted .374/.485/.701 with 17 doubles, six homers and a 22% strikeout rate. I didn’t delve more than superficially into the data at the time, but now I have. Here’s some info before and after August 11:

Hard-hit rate: 30% before, 48% after (PCL average 35%)
Median exit velo: 87.6 before, 94.2 after (89.8)
90th-percentile exit velo: 103.0 before, 104.2 after (103.1)
Average on 95+ exit velo: .500 before, .615 after (.545)
Slugging on 95+ exit velo: .955 before, 1.300 after (1.091)

Hauver didn’t improve his top-end velo so much as pull his mid-range from below-average to outstanding. Particularly relevant was his improvement against fastballs:

Whiff rate: 25% before, 10% (!) after (PCL average 22%)
Avg./Slugging on contact: .273/.409 before, .357/.607 after (.369/.621)
Line on PAs ending with fastball: .150/.313/.225 before, 303/.452/.515 after (.280/.395/.471)

Hauver is 26, doesn’t play center and isn’t hailed for his defensive prowess, so you’d might as well treat him like a first baseman in terms of how he’ll need to hit to get noticed. Also, elements of last year’s hot streak are unsustainable, like a .512 average on contact including a .372 average on exit velocities under 95. There’s almost nothing he could do to make the Opening Day roster. (I guess if he’s still slugging 2.000 a month from now, we can revisit.) Still, if can maintain a good portion of last year’s late improvement, he’s going to get noticed.

Elsewhere

OF Travis Jankowski signed a minor deal with the Cubs.