Rangers Farm Report

Opening Day!

For intersquads. AA and below begin a 16-game schedule Tuesday, while AAA will play only nine because the regular season starts a week earlier. Don’t read too much into player assignments for these contests. For example, the so-called low-A squad will likely be populated with many who’ll stay in Surprise beyond March and wait for the rookie league to start. Sometimes, though, an aggressive assignment is a tell.

I expect to be there Sunday at the latest.

Bullpen Battle

Within my lists of organizational info, I’ve created a “Bullpen Battle” sheet compiling stats and opinions on every relief contender I mentioned in February. It includes average speeds of all pitch types (minimum 5 thrown).

On Sunday, Texas optioned Jacob Latz, Walter Pennington and Cole Winn. Latz hadn’t appeared in a real game until the day before. Winn couldn’t find the plate (4 BB in 3.2 IP, 47% strike rate), while Pennington could but suffered too much hard contact. Also optioned was righty Winston Santos, an offseason 40 addition who hasn’t pitched above AA.

Emiliano Teodo hasn’t pitched above AA, either, but he’s still in MLB camp. Is he ever. Teodo has entered the 9th and recorded saves his last two outings, striking out five and permitting just one runner on a medium-hard grounder. Admittedly, he hasn’t faced Ohtani/Betts/Freeman, but three of the seven opposing hitters have reached the Majors, and three others have ranked among their respective team’s top-30 prospects this year and/or last. Teodo’s sinker has averaged 98.7 MPH and peaked at 100.8. He’s split almost equally between heaters and sliders while tossing just one changeup. Assuming he’s still on the rotation development path, he’ll need to begin stretching out soon. If he doesn’t, well, we’ve got a story.

Kumar Rocker needed to either outperform Cody Bradford or overwhelm opponents in short bursts to make the Opening Day roster. He’s done neither, and his last outing was an intrasquad rather than an “A” game in front of spectators. Mildly disappointing, I suppose, but not a real concern. Rocker is working on a traditional curve (distinct from the mid-80s version that nearly everyone but Rocker himself dubs a slider.)

Jack Leiter leads every bullpen contender in average velocity on the four-seam fastball (98.1), curve (83), and change (92). Leiter’s new sinker trails Teodo by 1.2 MPH (forgivable). He’s also throwing a reconfigured change that is coming in three tics faster than last year but with less spin and more drop. Both he and Rocker appear bound for Round Rock.

We’ll see what happens in a couple of weeks, but a selection of the eight best relievers irrespective of salary or options has to include Marc Church. As always, the slider is a weapon (swinging strikes on 31% of all pitches and 53% of swings), and he’s made progress on a fastball that has sometimes been too wild and too hittable. Church has even mixed in a handful of low-90s changes. Last year’s number of changeups was zero.

Dane Dunning has been pretty good, and pretty good is probably good enough. Of the six MLB relievers acquired by trade or cash this offseason, only Shawn Armstrong qualifies as a multi-inning type, and even he was limited to ten appearances of at least two innings in 2024. Gerson Garabito is another potential long man, albeit more likely in an up-and-down role.

Luis Curvelo has fanned seven in 5.2 IP and drawn whiffs on 50% of opposing swings against his 95 MPH fastball and 85 slider. Curvelo earned a Major League contract despite being a minor league free agent with no MLB experience. So far, he’s proved worthy of a 40 spot.

As it stands, if non-roster invite Jesse Chavez makes the Opening Day roster, it will be on reputation, not this spring’s performance.

Other Notes

Caveat: small samples.

Against lefties, OF Evan Carter is 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. In the six plate appearances for which we have data, 73% of his swings have drawn air, and two-thirds of his takes have been called strikes (typical is about 30%). Again, that’s just a few trips to the plate, but it’s a legitimate concern. Carter is hitting .231/.286/.385 with a two strikeouts in 14 PA versus righties. His hard-hit rate is 18%.

Meanwhile, Kevin Pillar isn’t hitting lefties either (1-for-6) but is .333/.381/.389 overall and acting as if his retirement was premature. Sam Haggerty has also hit well but hasn’t played quite as often this spring and has five career MLB starts in CF compared to Pillar’s 821. Leody Taveras’s “my OBP is what it is so might as well swing for the fences” approach has resulted in a team-leading three homers.

70% of pitches to Ezequiel Duran have been outside the zone (the team average is 50%). He’s largely ignored those pitches and leads the team with four walks, but the contact has been mild (.118/.286/.176).

Good news: OF/1B Dustin Harris scorched a single at 111.0 MPH, 3.6 higher than any of 555 contacted fair balls in two years at AAA (and some coffee in MLB). He hit another 106.2, just 0.2 shy of his ’23-’24 peak. Not as good: His hard-hit rate (31%), median and 90th-percentile exit velos still lag behind the team averages.

1B/2B/DH Justin Foscue is not having a fun spring, hitting .200/.250/.333 with five strikeouts in 16 trips to the plate. Under the hood are some even ickier stats, including a 31% swinging strike overall and 45% when he swings. Along with a keen batting eye, his success in the minors has been built on a high contract rate. The 26-year-old has no path to the Rangers, absent injuries, so he’s largely performing for other organizations. The potential silver linings are a reasonable 44% hard-hit rate and a comparison to last spring, when he batted .250/.316/.396 with two walks and 14 strikeouts (getting hit three times accounts for 55 points of OBP). Maybe he’s just not a March guy.

OF Alejandro Osuna is hitting .435/.481/.652 and on several occasions has raised the decibel level of the radio voices with some fine defense. He isn’t going to make the Opening Day roster but is positioning himself for consideration down the road. The underlying statcast data is encouraging.

IF Sebastian Walcott’s miss rate is half the team average, he’s laying off out-of-zone pitches and connecting hard when he swings. I’m excited.

2B Marcus Semien is hitting .172/.226/.345 with the lowest 90th-percentile exit velocity (97.7) of any Ranger with at least six balls in play. I’m worri—NO NO NO! See, this is the kind of potholed dead-end road I find myself on when messing with tiny data sets.

Transactions

Texas released OF Daniel Mateo. Now 23, Mateo displayed an intriguing mix of speed and power at the lower levels, hitting .272/.318/.412 with 43 steals and 12 homers in 2022 and .259/.275/.407 with 30 steals and ten homers in 2023. Last year in AA Frisco wasn’t nearly as successful, and he was on track to become a free agent after this season.

Elsewhere

San Francisco catcher Sam Huff is batting .313/.522/.613. In 23 trips to the plate, he has 26% walk rate, a 39% strikeout rate and .667 average on balls in play. Welcome to the Cactus League. He hasn’t played in many parks with public data, and I wouldn’t dream of analyzing those crazy top-line stats, but I do know that putative second catcher Tom Murphy is hurt (again), so the optionless Huff would appear to have a solid shot at an Opening Day position. The Giants claimed Huff off waivers a while back.

Reliever Grant Anderson (Milwaukee) was knocked around and optioned to AAA Nashville. Owen White (Reds, then Yankees, now White Sox) threw a scoreless inning in his first appearance yesterday.

The Marlins optioned IF Max Acosta to AAA Jacksonville. Early March assignments aren’t carved in stone, but should he stay put, he’ll be making his debut at that level. Acosta was part of the Jake Burger trade.  IF Echedry Vargas is probably headed for high-A Beloit.

LHP Andrew Chafin signed a minor deal with Detroit. He’ll make $2.5 million plus up to $1.5 in incentives if he sticks, but it’s quite the fall from the $6.5 million club option Texas declined last fall. Incidentally, Detroit optioned offseason 40-man additions Chase Lee and Tyler Owens to AAA Toledo. Both were acquired for Chafin last summer.

San Diego signed lefty Wes Benjamin to a minor deal. Benjamin had spent the last three seasons in Korea. The Texas 2014 5th-rounder pitched 45 innings for the Rangers across 2020-2021.

The Mets signed RHP Jose Urena to a minor deal, and St. Louis signed catcher Yohel Pozo to a minor deal. Pozo had joined Atlanta early in the offseason but was soon released.

About two weeks ago I realized Willie Calhoun was out of contract. “He’d already have a deal were he headed to Japan or Korea. Maybe Mexico,” I thought. Last Tuesday, Calhoun signed with Quintana Roo. The LMB has become a popular destination for players who’ve aged out of MLB (like 42-year-old Robinson Cano) or can’t get signed as AAA depth.