SP Robert Dugger: 5.1 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 94 P / 59 S, 4.50 ERA RP Grant Anderson: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 4.19 ERA SS Davis Wendzel: 3-5, 2 2B, .235/.350/.426
Following Grant Wolfram, yesterday was Taylor Hearn’s turn on Albuquerque’s Mound of Doom (0.2 IP, 7 runners, 6 runs). Even so, opponents aren’t hitting him too badly (.232/.361/.275), but that .361 OBP stands out. Hearn has walked or hit 14 batters in 18.1 innings.
Again DHing, rehabbing Mitch Garver homered, singled, and walked. LF Travis Jankowski was 0-3 with a walk. Incidentally, Brad Miller hasn’t started a game since May 9.
SP Dane Acker: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 48 P / 29 S, 0.00 ERA RP Emiliano Teodo: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA SS Max Acosta: 3-4, .297/.353/.445 3B Keyber Rodriguez: 2-4, HR (1), .276/.325/.353
Part of the Elvis Andrus trade, Acker returned from Tommy John surgery late last year but was delayed again this season.
Also back is Emiliano Teodo, whose forearm tightness fortunately turned out to be just that. Teodo was on the Opening Day roster but IL’ed soon after.
Lo-A: Down East 5, at Carolina (MIL) 4 Down East: 11 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 10 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts Record: 23-17, 1.5 G up
SP Joseph Montalvo: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 80 P / 52 S, 2.08 ERA C Ian Moller: 2-4, 2B, .217/.342/.337 DH Yosy Galan: 1-3, 2B, BB, .234/.336/.430 LF Jojo Blackmon: 2-4, 2B, .170/.284/.330
Josh Norris of Baseball America has some video of Joseph Montalvo, who in his last two starts has avoided the walks that plagued his early outings. Down East has allowed the league’s fewest runs.
Yeison Morrobel and Danyer Cueva singled twice.
Today’s Starters AAA: Marvel AA: White Hi-A: Stephan Lo-A: TBD
Five Years Ago Yesterday Sam Huff was 2-5 with a homer for Down East.
Down East Sold, Moving A month ago, the Rangers announced the impending sale of the Hickory Crawdads to Diamond Baseball Holdings. Yesterday, the parties consummated the sales of the the ‘Dads and Down East Wood Ducks. Soon after, a rumored relocation of the Woodies to Spartanburg, South Carolina (which I’d mentioned last week) became an actual plan. The intention is to commence play in 2025 in a stadium to be constructed on a vacant site downtown. It will, of course, be part of a multifaceted entertainment/commercial/housing complex. The ballpark would hold 3,500. Apparently, MLB has already approved the process. Unlike so many moves of yore (“South Atlantic” teams in New Jersey, western Kentucky, northern Ohio), relocation to Spartanburg doesn’t create a scheduling headache. Spartanburg could conceivably rejoin high-A, creating a rival just down the road in Greenville, and Hickory would fit comfortably in the low-A Carolina League if desired. Internally, the move benefits the Rangers as the drive between affiliations drops from four hours to 90 minutes.
The timing of the announcement surprised me but not the message itself. Nothing at all against the good folks in Kinston, but the marriage between the city and Rangers always struck me as asymmetric. Kinston was in love again after losing its team in 2011; the Rangers wanted a green card that would allow them to stay in the Carolinas. In 2015-2016, the Rangers desperately wanted out of Adelanto. Kinston had a stadium that could be brought to standards in short order. Also, Texas’s ownership of the team precluded the possibility of losing the affiliation in two years.
Both sides were happy, but unfortunately, minor league baseball in Kinston as an investment made less sense (although, admittedly, I’m not privy to the books). The city has about 20,000 residents, the county around 50,000, so the market is roughly equivalent in size to Corsicana, Texas. It isn’t near another metropolis and has steadily lost population. An effort at regional branding (“Down East”) didn’t change the number of people within driving range of the stadium and irked some locals. With a population of 38,500, Spartanburg proper isn’t what you’d call large (smaller than Hickory, in fact!), but it has recently reversed decades of decline, and the county has grown steadily to nearly 350,000. Once MLB asserted its dominance over the minor league system, the incentive for club ownership diminished, but the capital and managerial requirements intensified, thus the gobbling up of so many teams by DBH. (Incidentally, had Down East not been club-owned in 2020, I’d have placed its likelihood of contraction as virtually certain. And DBH’s broad investment and stature probably insulates it from further contraction.)
The Rangers do have a lease with Kinston through 2031. Can they break it? With the caveat that I am not a lawyer, the terms seem generous in that regard. I don’t see anything granting Kinston the power to compel the Rangers to provide a team. In case of default, Kinston can avail itself to the laws of North Carolina (not enumerated in the document) and/or terminate the lease, the latter of which simply accelerates the modest annual rental payments owed. Furthermore, invoking a low-attendance clause or provision of a replacement team could reduce default payments to zero. The apparent ease with which the Rangers can depart helps to explain why they signed such a long lease in the first place.
Kinston might be better off in the long run. In light of MLB’s new facility requirements, the City of Asheville and Buncombe County have agreed to pony up at least $30 million on renovations to historic McCormick Field. Some of that money is beyond just baseball, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kinston’s 74-year-old Grainger Stadium is in need of renovations well beyond what the city has already undertaken. Can Kinston’s taxpayers make that kind of commitment, and even if so, should they? As for the fans who will be losing a team for the second time in 15 years, well… I don’t know. They didn’t do anything wrong and deserve better.
A Bunch Of Players, Moving To Round Rock: C/DH Mitch Garver and OF Travis Jankowski (rehab) RHP Marc Church (up from Round Rock)
To Frisco: LHP Juan Mejia (down fro Round Rock)
To Hickory: RHP Dane Acker (off IL) RHP Emiliano Teodo (off IL) C Tucker Mitchell (up from Down East) 1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz (up from Down East)
To Down East: RHP Nick Lockhart (first assignment of season) RHP Jacob Maton (down from Hickory) RHP Wyatt Sparks (down from Hickory) C Konnor Piotto (down from Hickory) IF Yenci Pena (down from Hickory)
SP Kyle Cody: 3.1 IP, 8 H (1 HR), 6 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 54 P / 39 S, 7.84 ERA RP Tyler Zombro: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA SS Davis Wendzel: 2-3, HR (5), .221/.342/.405
Rehabbing Mitch Garver doubled twice in four trips to the plate as DH, and CF Travis Jankowski was 0-3.
Grant Wolfram (10 batters, 7 hits, 7 runs) joined the Express two weeks ago but discovered you haven’t really pitched in the Pacific Coast league until you’ve pitched at altitude.
Tyler Zombro made his Round Rock debut. He throws an upper-80s sinker and a slider, per Statcast.
SP Jack Leiter: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 7 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 91 P / 44 S, 4.17 ERA RP Nick Starr: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 6.97 ERA RP Theo McDowell: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 3.50 ERA RP Alex Speas: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.26 ERA RP Antoine Kelly: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1.80 ERA SS Luisangel Acuna: 1-3, BB, SB (18), .309/.379/.444 2B Thomas Saggese: 1-2, 2B, BB, HBP, .299/.353/.435
Jack Leiter’s renaissance ended, if temporarily, at three games. Leiter walked the bases loaded to open the game and went 2-0 to the cleanup hitter, but the Travelers swung at the next four pitches, resulting in a sac fly and grounded double play. After a period of unsteady if acceptable control, Leiter walked three of his last five opponents before departing. This wasn’t pretty, but Leiter did at least keep the situation in hand. Hope for better next time.
Nick Starr stranded two of Leiter’s runners. He and three others combined to shut down the Travs.
SP Winston Santos: 5.2 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 3 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 85 P / 49 S, 5.35 ERA SS Max Acosta: 1-3, 2B, BB, .282/.341/.435 DH Tucker Mitchell: 1-2, 2B, BB 1B Abi Ortiz: 1-4, HR (1)
Newcomers Abimelec Ortiz and Tucker Mitchell made a splash. Winston Santos has a nice walk rate (6.6%) undermined by an otherworldly HBP rate (5.3%). He’s hit eight batters in his last six starts.
Lo-A: Down East 9, at Carolina (MIL) 5 Down East: 12 hits, 5 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 5 walks, 14 strikeouts Record: 22-16, 0.5 G up
SP Dylan McCarty: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 6 SO, 77 P / 47 S, 1.54 ERA RP Jackson Leath: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.19 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-5, .256/.310/.316 RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-4, BB, .250/.377/.295 2B Cam Cauley: 3-4, 2B, BB, 2 SB (10), .248/.306/.389 3B Gleider Figuereo: 3-4, HR (3), BB, .216/.331/.333
I hadn’t mentioned Anthony Gutierrez in a while. He had his first multi-hit game in almost two weeks, during which time he batted .148/.226/.185. In his second tilt at low-A pitching, Cam Cauley is walking less but hitting for better average and power.
SP Cody Bradford: 5.2 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 96 P / 70 S, 0.99 ERA RP Lucas Jacbosen: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 11 BB, 0 SO, 4.02 ERA RP Chase Lee: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 3.91 ERA SS Jonathan Ornelas: 2-5, HR (1), .245/.369/.353 C Sam Huff: 2-4, .280/.355/.449
Back in Round Rock, Cody Bradford allowed his first multi-run inning of the AAA season. Errant throws by 3B Justin Foscue and Bradford himself contributed.
Texas released reliever Jacob Barnes, who had been effective if walk-prone. With the exception of last-second addition Robert Dugger, I think every healthy veteran free-agent pitcher signed for depth is already gone. Kyle Funkhouser and Danny Duffy remain (on the shelf).
The White Sox called up OF Clint Frazier, batting .375/.478/.839 with seven homers and five doubles in 16 games for AAA Charlotte after leaving Round Rock.
TK Roby no-hit the Sod Poodles for four innings after doing the same for six of his 6.1 innings last Tuesday. Frisco has employed a five-man rotation, and anyone making a second start is on a restricted diet.
After Roby’s departure, Amarillo scored a run off three different relievers on only two hits plus six walks, a hit batter, a wild pitch, a passed ball, and a balk.
Rule 5 pick Mason Englert is getting by in Detroit: a 4.73 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 26.2 innings. He’s surrendered seven homers, five of which have come against his fastball. Had he stayed with Texas, I expect he’d be in Frisco rotation, which he joined toward the end of 2022, with a promotion to AAA assuming good performance.
SP Mitch Bratt: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 40 P / 27 S, 3.49 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.00 ERA RF Alejandro Osuna: 3-4, 2B, HR (2), .267/.423/.390
Down 7-3 in the 7th, Daniel Mateo drew a bases-loaded walk in front of Alejandro Osuna’s grand slam. Osuna also hit a two-run infield single according to the box score. The 13-game losing streak is over.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Fayetteville (HOU) 1 Down East: 8 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts Record: 21-16, 0.5 GB
SP Aidan Curry: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 80 P / 54 S, 2.78 ERA RP Kai Wynyard: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 1.59 ERA 1B Abi Ortiz: 2-3, 2B, BB, .307/.392/.604 C Ian Moller: 2-4, .214/.343/.333 2B Danyer Cueva: 2-3, .241/.278/.343
Better control = better results for Aidan Curry, who’s walked or hit 9% of opponents so far in 2023 compared to 14% last year and 16% the year before. 20 years old and already in his fourth season, Curry signed a with Texas after being bypassed in 2020’s short draft.
Like last year, Ian Moller is walking plenty and hinting at power, but his strikeout rate has ballooned to 37%. Abi Ortiz is enjoying his best month stateside. Ortiz also spent last year at Down East after bypassing rookie ball, which might account for his weaker outing (.226/.308/.380) after showing uncommon power in the DSL (11 homers in 40 games).
Five Years Ago Yesterday 2013 3rd-rounder David Ledbetter retired. Ledbetter holds the unfortunate distinction of pitching the most innings for Texas’s high-A affiliate in High Desert in 2015 and 2016. Somebody had to, and at least he got a championship out of it. Ledbetter never had a good year outside of short-season but could almost always get his team five innings.
SP Fernery Ozuna: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 43 P / 25 S, 7.31 ERA 1B Blaine Crim: 2-5, .262/.363/.437 DH Yoshi Tsutsugo: 2-2, HR (2), 2 BB, SB (2), .231/.369/.365
A Davis Wendzel error and four-pitch walk by Yerry Rodriguez plated the tying and go-ahead runs for El Paso in the 9th. In the bottom half, Sam Huff tied the game on a bases-loaded walk that started with two swinging strikes, and Blaine Crim singled in Sandro Fabian.
SP Ricky Vanasco: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 31 P / 15 S, 0.00 ERA RP Nick Krauth: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 3.32 ERA RP Nick Starr: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 7.71 ERA RP Antoine Kelly: 2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.93 ERA SS Luisangel Acuna: 2-5, 2B, BB, SB (17), .316/.385/.458 CF Evan Carter: 4-6, SB (8), .302/.430/.426 1B Dustin Harris: 2-5, .226/.366/.414 RF Kellen Strahm: 1-3, 2 BB, .233/.343/.342 C Liam Hicks: 3-5, 2B, HR (1), .261/.452/.565
Back from knee surgery, Ricky Vanasco couldn’t escape the 1st thanks to an egregious two-strike pitch call and a Luisangel Acuna throw that was aimed more toward the dugout than third base. Oh well. He was on a short leash and probably through even he he’d secured that third out.
In the 10th, Acuna singled to score the gift-runner and tie the game. He stole second and scored easily on Evan Carter’s fourth hit.
Liam Hicks is 2021’s ninth-rounder, signed for a relative pittance ($30,000) to spread money around to others. Out of Arkansas State, reviews were promising toward the bat and as hostile toward his defense as any I’ve seen. I haven’t seen enough to judge the latter, but Hicks has indeed hit wherever stationed, producing a .298/.447/.426 line in 82 pro games. The homer was a grand slam. Last year at this time, he was waiting for the rookie schedule to begin.
Nick Starr has two nice outings in a row following half a dozen of the worrying sort.
SP Larson Kindreich: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 56 P / 36 S, 6.75 ERA RP Florencio Serrano: 3.1 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.84 ERA RF Alejandro Osuna: 3-5, .248/.414/.337 C Cody Freeman: 4-4, HR (5), .219/.274/.438 2B Jayce Easley: 3-5, .210/.341/.267
Hickory has the fifth-worst record of 120 full-season teams. Hickory is actually third in the league in fewest runs allowed (and was best until last night) but isn’t scoring much. The Crawdads have averaged 6.3 hits and 2.6 walks during a 13-game losing streak, and last night was the first with double-digit hits.
Lo-A: Down East 1, Fayetteville (HOU) 2 (7) Down East: 4 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts Record: 19-16
SP Brock Porter: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 64 P / 30 S, 1.21 ERA DH Tucker Mitchell: 1-2, BB, SB (3)
Lo-A: Down East 4, Fayetteville (HOU) 3 (7) Down East: 7 hits, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts Record: 20-16, 0.5 GB
SP Dylan MacLean: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 65 P / 47 S, 3.28 ERA RP Jose Corneill: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 3.38 ERA 1B Abi Ortiz: 2-3, HR (7), .296/.379/.592 C Tucker Mitchell: 2-3, 2B, .346/.458/.500
Brock Porter limited the opposition to two singles and no runs but landed fewer than half his pitches for strikes. He’s struck out 32% of his enemies (great!) but walked or hit 20% (not great).
Tucker Mitchell was picked five spots after Liam Hicks out of Manatee-Sarasota in Florida, a year younger and paid the maximum that doesn’t count against the draft cap ($125,000).
SP James Marvel: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 3 SO, 78 P / 42 S, 3.77 ERA RP Chase Lee: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 4.24 ERA 3B Justin Foscue: 4-5, BB, .276/.393/.476 DH Sam Huff: 4-5, 2B, BB, .283/.351/.465 SS Davis Wendzel: 2-5, 2B, HR (4), .207/.329/.380 RF Sandro Fabian: 4-5, 2B, .229/.302/.352 C Matt Whatley: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, .208/.288/.245
The Express shook off a ten-game losing streak with a torrent of activity: 12 runs, 19 hits, and five walks in just six innings. Six Chihuahuas combined for 156 pitches in that span. El Paso was already among the oldest and dullest AAA squads, to be blunt, and now starter Matt Waldron’s formerly knuckle-heavy approach is dominated by a fastball. Yawn.
The Express actually left much on the table. In the first three innings, three runners were tagged attempting to score, and another two were stranded at third.
Chase Lee fell a pitch shy of an immaculate inning in the 7th. Beyond that I can’t say much, as I was mainly there so my daughter could see fireworks.
Texas signed reliever Tyler Zombro, unfortunately most famous for taking a line drive that fractured his skull in 2021. Zombro returned from that but a year later underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which by law obligates him to pitch for the Rangers at some point. Those injuries and covid have limited him 13.1 innings the past three-plus years.
SP Owen White: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 62 P / 36 S, 3.72 ERA RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.71 ERA RP Alex Speas: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.46 ERA RP Eudrys Manon: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 6.00 ERA CF Evan Carter: 2-3, BB, SB (7), .285/.421/.415 2B Thomas Saggese: 2-4, .306/.350/.444
Owen White just doesn’t quite seem himself. His velocity is down a tic or two since I saw him last month in San Antonio, and that was down a tic or two from last year. He’s still effective, just more polite about it. White’s strikeout rate (20%) and swinging strike rate (10.5%) are both well into the lower half among Texas Leaguers with at least 20 innings.
SP Josh Stephan: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 82 P / 54 S, 2.17 ERA
Hickory has the best walk rate in the league (8.9%) and four of the top ten among the 69 pitchers with at least 20 innings. Josh Stephan is among them, having steadily progressed from respectable to terrific control over his three pro years (especially against a backdrop of ever-worsening control at all levels).
Hickory is four shy of 2021’s franchise-worst 16-game losing streak. That one was far worse, culminating with a season-ending six-game series at Rome with lousy weather and covid absences. Three games were canceled, the last (if I remember correctly) a day in advance so everyone could get the heck out of there.
Lo-A: wet
Two today.
Today’s Starters AAA: Bullpen AA: Krauth Hi-A: Kindreich Lo-A: TBD (Porter plus one, I imagine)
SP Robert Dugger: 5.2 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 2 R, 4 BB, 6 SO, 96 P / 58 S, 4.15 ERA 2B Jonathan Ornelas: 2-3, 2 BB, .238/.367/.331 SS Davis Wendzel: 1-4, HR (3), .198/.326/.345
Davis Wendzel is still manning short most of the time despite the presence of Jonathan Ornelas. He’s also still not making the type of contact that will get him to the Majors, hitting high-angled, catchable flies a quarter of the time along with a 26% strikeout rate. Wendzel turns 26 in a few days and was selected 41st overall in 2019 out of Baylor. Ornelas has started 19 games at short and a total of 15 split among third, second, and center.
The Express have tied a franchise-worst ten consecutive losses. Meanwhile, division-leading OKC still hasn’t lost since sweeping Round Rock last week.
SP Ryan Garcia: 5 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 73 P / 47 S, 7.99 ERA RP Triston Polley: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 5.40 ERA RP Michael Brewer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 2.70 ERA RP Theo McDowell: 1 IP, 0 H (3.94 HR), 0 R, 11 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RF Aaron Zavala: 2-4, HR (1) DH Evan Carter: 2-4, SB (6), .275/.412/.408 2B Thomas Saggese: 3-4, HR (3), .300/.346/.443 CF Kellen Strahm: 1-3, 2B, BB, SB (4), .237/.336/.351 LF Dustin Harris: 1-3, 2B, BB, .226/.374/.427
Frisco and Amarillo have met 12 times, six in each park, scoring 97 runs in the Panhandle versus just 55 in Frisco. Amarillo’s offense is fairly punchless away from their home park, and Frisco has kept them from getting any cute ideas. Ryan Garcia had his best AA start.
Aaron Zavala appears to have returned from elbow surgery without any lingering issues.
SP Matt Brosky: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 74 P / 44 S, 6.14 ERA RP Yohanse Morel: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.84 ERA RP Spencer Mraz: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 1.88 ERA LF Geisel Cepeda: 2-4, .265/.371/.313
Cody Freeman’s 29% success rate at catching potential base-stealers is sixth-best of 41 high-A catchers with at least 100 innings. Brooklyn’s Kevin Parada, strongly linked to Texas in last summer’s mock drafts and eventually taken 11th by the Mets, is 35th at 13%. Parada has also been run against more often than any other high-A catcher. Brooklyn’s other catcher has an equally high rate, so that’s probably related more to the team situation than Parada himself.
OF Elijah Green, another potential 2022 Texas pick, is batting .237/.328/.333 with a 44% strikeout rate at low-A Frederickburg. The Nationals selected him fifth. There’s isn’t any top pick I had in mind for Texas who’s having a great season so far, not to say the a quarter season is enough to pass judgment. By coincidence, I’d checked in on Parada, Green, and others a week ago before Rocker was injured. The one high pick looking like an absolute monster is IF Jackson Holliday, off the board by the time Texas selected. (Also OU alum RHP Cade Horton, picked an unexpectedly high seventh overall.)
Hickory lost again.
Lo-A: Down East 0, Fayetteville (HOU) 5 Down East: 5 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 8 walks, 12 strikeouts Record: 19-15, 1.5 GB
SP Leandro Lopez: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 68 P / 38 S, 3.79 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1.69 ERA CF Yeison Morrobel: 2-3, 2B, BB, .243/.385/.297
Opponents are hitting a goofy .225/.400/.268 against Leandro Lopez, who’s issued a walk or strikeout to over half his batters faced. Yeison Morrobel already has another extra-base hit.
Rumors of Down East leaving Kinston may be nothing more than that, but they’ve drawn enough attention to merit comment from the mayor. A while back, I’d mentioned REV Entertainment’s exploration of an complex outside Wilmington (NC, not DE) that would include a stadium. Per Wood Ducks GM Jon Clemmons in the linked article, that team would be independent. Another rumored location is Spartanburg, SC. That metropolis already has a team down the road in Greenville, but the tri-county area has 1.1 million people, so suppose it could support two A-level clubs. The Rangers have a lease in Kinston through 2031 (originally 2028 but later extended), although the Player Development Agreement ends after 2030.
I personally would not place a bet on having four levels of full-season minor league ball in 2031 without getting odds, but people with actual money like Diamond Baseball Holdings (Hickory’s new owners) seem to think differently, or they have a plan to deal with future contraction.
Today’s Starters AAA: Marvel AA: White Hi-A: Stephan Lo-A: TBD (Porter)
Five Years Ago Yesterday Rain, mostly. Down East was three-hit by Dylan Cease. Ariel Jurado was called up to the Rangers and would allow four runs in 4.2 innings in his MLB debut.
SP Cole Winn: 2.1 IP, 8 H (1 HR), 7 R, 4 BB, 4 SO, 80 P / 44 S, 9.17 ERA RP Grant Anderson: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 4.11 ERA RP Taylor Hearn: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.57 ERA 2B Justin Foscue: 1-4, HR (5), .263/.377/.474
Since last May, over 33 appearances and 139.2 innings, Cole Winn has a 7.67 ERA, and opponents are batting .284/.401/.475 with a 20% walk rate.
Justin Foscue’s fifth homer was another of the laser variety.
Grant Anderson was in a mood, striking out five of six Chihuahuas on just 23 pitches. He deals a low-90s sinker and low-80s slider, both with ample movement. I have video.
SP Jack Leiter: 6 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 10 SO, 84 P / 54 S, 4.38 ERA RP Alex Speas: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 HBP, 0 SO, 1.59 ERA RP Antoine Kelly: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.25 ERA RF Aaron Zavala: 2-4 CF Evan Carter: 1-4, 3B, .267/.410/.405 DH Dustin Harris: 1-3, 2B, BB, .223/.371/.421
More reliant than ever on his fastball (71% of all pitches), Jack Leiter overwhelmed Amarillo for five innings before succumbing to three runs with two out in the 6th. Through five, Leiter permitted one runner and struck out ten, a career high. I try not to pretend to know what’s going on in people’s heads, but (hot take alert) Leiter pitched with the most fire and determination since his college days. After the previous two starts, Leiter knows he can depend on his fastball. Gone is the constant struggle to find a rhythm. No more recalibration after nearly every pitch.
For the first time since I began keeping track more carefully, Leiter offered more curves than sliders, three times as many, in fact. Per usual, a good many were opening pitches (four strikes, four balls), and again they had more verve than in the past, although I still wouldn’t place them on the level of his Vandy curve. Leiter delivered only six sliders, three of which missed bats.
The 6th took a little shine off the evening. After his lone walk (all on fastballs) was erased on a double play, the next batter reached on an infield single, followed by a lined single. Amarillo catcher Caleb Roberts watched two close two-strike pitches to fill the count and then lined up a high-inside fastball perfectly for a three-run homer. Nevertheless, Wednesday was a third straight encouraging outing.
SP Winston Santos: 5.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 87 P / 57 S, 5.46 ERA DH Alejandro Osuna: 2-3, BB, SB (10), .227/.417/.318
Winston Santos exited the IL with a performance typical of his season. Alejandro Osuna has more combined walks and HBPs (30) than strikeouts (28) but hasn’t found the contact that produced a .302 average in 2022.
Hickory has lost ten straight, outscored 64-26.
Lo-A: Down East 1, Fayetteville (HOU) 2 Down East: 4 hits, 3 walks, 16 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 2 walks, 14 strikeouts Record: 19-14, 1 GB
SP Luis Ramirez: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 49 P / 29 S, 1.88 ERA RP Joseph Montalvo: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 2.49 ERA RP Jackson Leath: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2.38 ERA RP Alberto Mota: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 6.75 ERA 1B Abi Ortiz: 1-3, 2B, BB, .292/.377/.584
The 30th strikeout of the game stranded three Down East runners in the 9th. Four Woodies pitched capably.
As widely reported, RHP Kumar Rocker has a torn elbow ligament and will undergo Tommy John surgery. Perversely, MLB.com had announced placement of Rocker on its top-100 prospect list mere minutes before the news broke. I’d written about a sudden loss of control and command in last week’s start (in fact, I’d drafted and then deleted “like flipping a switch”), but I didn’t observe anything physically worrying at the time. He did become fastball-heavy and completely cease throwing sliders in the middle of his final inning but continued to offer curves. As I’d mentioned, all of Rocker’s previous runs had scored in just two rough innings. Last Thursday seemed just another example of that.
Assuming 14 months until his next real game, Rocker would return in mid-July, meaning up to a month of games at the Surprise complex followed by another month in a full-season league, then instructionals and the Arizona Fall League. So, again assuming a standard recovery, 2024 could be a not too terribly unproductive year.
OF Aaron Zavala is active in Frisco. RHP Winston Santos is active in Hickory.
SP Kyle Cody: 3 IP, 9 H (1 HR), 8 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 63 P / 43 S, 6.83 ERA RP Chase Lee: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 4.64 ERA SS Jonathan Ornelas: 2-4, 2 2B, .236/.362/.333
Texas released lefty Joe Palumbo, who’d rejoined the Rangers after an unsuccessful stint with the Giants. Palumbo walked four in an inning yesterday and ten of 17 batters over three appearances. Oft-injured, Palumbo has just never been on track post-2020.
SP TK Roby: 6.1 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 8 SO, 82 P / 54 S, 6.11 ERA RP Marc Church: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 3.94 ERA RP Nick Starr: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 8.31 ERA LF Dustin Harris: 3-4, 2B, .220/.367/.415
With one out in the 5th, catcher Scott Kapers was hit on his throwing hand with a foul tip and had to leave. TK Roby then hit Jordan Lawlar (who himself would depart after the half-inning) and walked Roby Enriquez. Not a great situation.
Roby then retired 18 straight, eight via strikeout, and carried a no-hitter into the 7th. A triple and homer ended his day, but on the whole, Roby produced one of his season’s best starts.
Evan Carter’s well has run dry for the moment. He’s 6-for-42 with no extra base hits and 14 strikeouts in his last ten games. Dustin Harris is .245/.351/.469 over the same period with three of his four homers. He’s sharply cut down on April’s weirdly high strikeout rate but has a still-modest .285 average on contact.
SP Mitch Bratt: 4.2 IP, 9 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 88 P / 56 S, 3.91 ERA CF Daniel Mateo: 2-4, HR (4), .271/.285/.458
Mitch Bratt missed a season-high 14 bats and fanned seven, but most of what went the other direction caused damage. He walked two for the first time.
Lo-A: Down East 10, Fayetteville (HOU) 0 Down East: 10 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 4 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts Record: 19-13, tied for first
SP DJ McCarty: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 8 SO, 74 P / 45 S, 0.92 ERA RP Kai Wynyard: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Damian Mendoza: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.08 ERA RP Adrian Rodriguez: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.00 ERA RF Yeison Morrobel: 1-4, HR (1), .224/.373/.269 SS Cam Cauley: 2-3, HR (2), BB, SB (8), .261/.317/.391 3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-3, 2B, BB, .202/.324/.309 2B Danyer Cueva: 2-4, HR (1), .247/.282/.361
Last year, Yeison Morrobel averaged an extra-base hit per 11 plate appearances. In 2023, he needed 80 trips to collect his first. I’ll take the under on 80 PAs for his next one.
Just to remind you, and myself again, DJ McCarty is a free agent signed out of high school in 2020. Dylan MacLean is a Texas’s 4th-rounder out of high school from the same year. Aussie Kai Wynyard made his 2023 debut.
Five Years Ago Yesterday “Another example of how baseball has changed recently: [Low-A] Hickory pitchers have a ratio of 2.4 strikeouts per walk. Sounds pretty good, right? Anything over 2:1 is solid, yes? Not now. That ratio is the worst in the 14-team South Atlantic League. The average ratio is 3:1, and Charleston leads the league with 3.9 strikeouts per walk.”
That change didn’t last. A 2:1 ratio isn’t solid, but it’s close. Strikeouts are higher than ever, but the walk rate in Texas’s low-A league has increased by two-thirds since 2018:
Cody Bradford makes his MLB debut tonight after only seven AAA starts. This time last year, Bradford was sporting a 9.00 ERA with peripherals to match in AA. Not until August would he fully right the ship and head toward his current status.
Bradford hasn’t thrown a pitch over 92.0 MPH this season, and his average fastball velocity is 89.5 MPH. It plays up with his good extension, and he moves it around and works upstairs fearlessly. Indeed, the high fastball sets up the changeup and adds a little spice to a relatively ordinary breaker. The change is his best pitch, and the only pitch with substantial horizontal movement. It’s not purely a chase pitch; he will place it in the zone more commonly than the typical pitcher.
Most writeups describe Bradford as having a cutter, but I’m not seeing anything distinct from his slider and fastball in the statcast data, although the hardest sliders tend to break slightly less. Likewise, current descriptions of Bradford don’t include a curve, and I haven’t written about one this year, but looking at the data in more detail I’m seeing a 1.5 MPH gap in his velo range splitting an 83-88 slider and a 78-81 bender with more drop. If you want to say he throws a fastball, cutter, slider, and curve, that’s fine. If you want to say he throws a continuum in a 78-92 MPH range that acquires more drop and glove-side movement as the velocity decreases, that works too. Bradford generates the most misses on changes (17% of all pitches, 30% of swings), a slightly lesser proportion on fastballs, and less still on the breakers.
Bradford has above-average command and the ability to throw any pitch in any count. He’s thrown 50% fastballs, 27% changes, 18%, sliders, and 6% curves in 2023 per statcast. On first pitches, he’s dealt a fastball only 5% more often along with more breakers and fewer changes. Only 33% of plate appearances have begun with a 1-0 count compared to 53% at 0-1 and the other 14% in play. Although he has a respectable 25% strikeout rate, his game more about getting ahead and forcing bad-count swings that may or may not conclude with a strikeout. Bradford is actually among Texas’s most fly-prone pitchers (43%), but the median exit velocity off the bat is a meager 87.1 MPH, near the lowest among Express pitchers. A bunch of those flies are hit at a 50-degree angle about 200 feet.
Bradford has an 0.91 ERA and .156/.240/.200 opposing line in Round Rock, with good if slightly inconsistent control plus command that has probably never been better. Even so, expecting continuation of his AAA results is too much to ask, and it’s tough to project him as better than a back-end starter simply because of what he throws. (Hopefully that doesn’t come across as an insult. A consistent back-end starter can retire with a small fortune.) And by the way, he’s also facing the National League’s second-highest-scoring offense. Bradford’s job is to keep Texas in the game and not overburden the bullpen.
SP Grant Anderson: 2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 39 P / 26 S, 4.73 ERA RP Grant Wolfram: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Jonathan Ornelas: 3-5, 2B, .227/.359/.311 1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, 2 HR (4), .270/.367/.458
How thoughtful of Blaine Crim to homer twice the day after I said he was better than his stats would indicate. I was mostly referring to his poor luck on grounders, but I was also thinking about his relative lack of power and had typed and then deleted a trite sentence to the effect of “his performance would also improve with more homers.”
Grant Wolfram: 92-95 fastball, 82-86 slider, 78-82 curve. The 26-year-old had been the steadiest of Frisco’s relievers. Texas drafted him in 2018’s 18th round.
Elsewhere: The Mets purchased the contract of reliever Dennis Santana. The Marlins outrighted RHP Chi Chi Rodriguez.
AA: cancelled
Rain, or maybe 30-year-old IF Nick Tanielu pulled the Bull Durham sprinkler trick.
The farm was 3-20 with a -64 run differential last week, and all but Down East are sitting on losing streaks of at least seven games.
SP Larson Kindreich: 3 IP, 2 H (2 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 36 P / 26 S, 4.58 ERA RP Brandon Webb: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 9.49 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.40 ERA LF Geisel Cepeda: 3-4, 2B, SB (3), .268/.388/.324 3B Keyber Rodriguez: 2-4, 2 SB (7), .272/.320/.337 RF Angel Aponte: 2-5, 2B, 2 SB (3), .208/.263/.321
Hickory stole nine bases against various pitchers and catcher Nate Soria, who’d been acceptable so far this season (9 games, 9 steals, 3 caught), and Bowling Green as a whole was one of the better steal-prevention squads in the league. Hickory also had nine hits to Bowling Green’s eight, a 19-5 advantage in at-bats with runners in scoring position, zero errors compared to Bowling Green’s five, and one wild pitch to Bowling Green’s four. Hickory lost.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Delmarva (BAL) 5 Down East: 7 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts Record: 18-13, tied for first
SP Aidan Curry: 6 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 8 SO, 76 P / 49 S, 3.29 ERA 1B Abi Ortiz: 2-4, HR (6), BB, .296/.381/.593
Abimelec Ortiz ranks third in the league in homers and second in slugging. Last year at the same level, he hit 11 in 94 games and slugged .380, on the light side for a first baseman who dabbles on the outfield corners.
Whew. In the last week, the farm has lost 20 of 23 to fall to 64-65. All three wins are by Down East. All week, Cody Bradford has been slated to start the Sunday afternoon game. As of this morning, he’s not.
SP James Marvel: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 83 P / 50 S, 4.00 ERA 3B Jonathan Ornelas: 1-3, BB, SB (2), .211/.350/.289 1B Justin Foscue: 1-3, 2B, BB, .282/.403/.492
Justin Foscue debuted at first base as a professional. He was busy, recording ten putouts and three assists, inclusive of involvement of three double plays. This isn’t a surprise. Even in college, Foscue was a bat-first infielder. He spent more time at third in school, more at second in the pros, but has yet to definitely attach himself to either. First base is a possibility, either as a full-time position if he hits well enough or part of a flex if he doesn’t. Keep in mind that Foscue is as likely of a trade chip as anyone in the organization.
SP Nick Krauth: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 35 P / 17 S, 3.06 ERA 2B Luisangel Acuna: 1-3, 2 BB, .321/.385/.471 3B Thomas Saggese: 4-5, 2B, .295/.340/.426
I assume the folks in Frisco aren’t reading my “five years ago” segments, but they’re doing an unfortunate impersonation of the 2018 club lately. Frisco has lost seven straight by a combined margin of 40 runs. Opponents are hitting .306/.409/.497 and scoring 8.4 runs per game against the Riders in May, easily the most in the league.
Thomas Saggese is stemming the tide, batting .380/.392/.540 with three four-hit games this month.
SP Josh Stephan: 6.1 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 77 P / 53 S, 2.59 ERA SS Max Acosta: 1-4, HR (4), .302/.362/.479
Max Acosta has equaled last year’s four homers in 77% fewer plate appearances. His rate of extra-base hits has barely changed, but instead of nearly always doubling, he’s going deep almost half the time. Acosta ranked among Texas’s top ten prospects when signed but has dropped to the bottom or off of top-30 lists as he’s played. He’s doing a good job of reversing that trend in 2023.
Lo-A: Down East 5, Delmarva (BAL) 4 Down East: 10 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts Record: 18-12, tied for first
SP Jose Corneill: 4.2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 3 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 79 P / 50 S, 3.80 ERA RP Dylan MacLean: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 3.05 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 1-3, 2 BB, .270/.333/.340 C Tucker Mitchell: 2-4, BB, .354/.469/.523 SS Cam Cauley: 2-4, 2B, .247/.299/.348
The quietest of Texas five 2020 picks so far, Dylan MacLean has a 25% strikeout rate, better than his previous two seasons.
Down a run in the 9th with two on and two out, Tucker Mitchell’s single plus a Delmarva throwing error plated both runners.
