40 Man / Rule 5 Outlook
Tuesday is the deadline for protecting players on the 40-man roster in advance the Rule 5 draft. The Texas 40-man roster currently sits at 35 players. Nine are eligible for arbitration but not guaranteed to receive it. Another handful, including recent waiver or trade additions, are candidates for designation prior to Friday’s contract-tender deadline. So in these respects, the Rangers have generous room for prospect additions. Conceivably, Texas could have fewer than 35 on the roster by the end of business Friday.
Conversely, regardless of budget constraints, they have other additions to make. Nine pitchers departed as free agents. Guess how many pitchers Texas has on the 40 with at least 50 innings of experience and expected to be at healthy next spring? Also nine, and that includes Josh Sborz, whose arbitration status is uncertain as I type. Texas doesn’t have a roster crunch per se but can’t add players heedlessly.
Here’s my thoughts on potential 40-man additions:
RHP David Davalillo (Age 23, 1st-time eligible)
Yes. Next…
1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz (23, 2nd time)
While a late-season surge salvaged Ortiz’s 2024, I wasn’t especially enthused entering this season, and had I written this piece in late July, he would have been well down the list. He was hitting .234/.336/.411 while repeating AA as a bat-or-bust prospect, and my reaction to his early August promotion to AAA was more “might as well” than “it’s about time.” At Round Rock, he batted a revelatory .283/.388/.565 with nine homers in 41 games. Yes, a chunk of that success occurred in friendly Albuquerque, but the statcast data fully backed him up: 54% hard-hit rate, median and upper-level exit velos well above average, good launch angles, even a better-than-average whiff rate. He positively obliterated high fastballs, particularly on first pitches. I kept waiting for PCL pitchers to adjust, but they didn’t. They will eventually, so he’ll have to adjust in kind, but darned if he isn’t putting legitimate big-league punishment on the ball while maintaining his dignity against breaking stuff. I never wrote this glowingly about Blaine Crim in any R5 preview, but Ortiz at his best shines a little brighter, he bats lefty, and he can probably be indulged in RF for a spell. He certainly won’t be the most well-rounded prospect available if unprotected, which is the rationale for leaving him off. Still, I have talked myself into thinking he’ll be added.
IF/OF Cam Cauley (22, 1st)
Baseball America deemed him Texas’s toughest decision. My immediate reaction was “no, he’s on, Lopez is tougher,” but let’s have this out. On the surface the choice seems easy: Cauley runs very well, can hit for power and play short and center (and elsewhere) ably. He batted .253/.325/.448 with 15 homers and 33 other extra-base hits as a 22-year-old in Frisco, a moderately aggressive assignment given his so-so 2024 in high-A. What’s not to like? He does have a better chance at being picked than post-2024 Cody Freeman because of that versatility, but unlike Max Acosta last year and Jonathan Ornelas after 2023, Cauley hasn’t quite closed the deal. While he’s genuinely improved his contact rate, reaching base isn’t his specialty, and he could be swamped in the short run against MLB pitching. Even though I’m skeptical he could stick on an MLB roster this soon, I lean toward selection.
RHP Leandro Lopez (23, 1st)
For the first time, Lopez was fully healthy, effective and unleashed, improving his previously woeful control to shockingly well above average while broadening his repertoire. Is that enough? I have mixed feelings. It’s easy to become overly insular in this process, focusing too much on how each player rates within the organization rather than the league at large. Ortiz’s data and Cauley tools will stand out in a Rule 5 draft. Lopez, perhaps not. Most opponents have similar players with similar stories. Lopez has a variety of risks (health, control, future role), and I’d strongly prefer him being nurtured at Frisco next year and reassessed. I seriously doubt he could hold an MLB roster spot throughout 2025, an argument for leaving him off for now, and that’s where I sit today.
Wilian Bormie (24, 2nd)
Tempting. Bormie enjoyed a velocity spike in 2025, picking up four full ticks to an average of 96 and reaching triple digits on occasion. He also displayed grievous control at times. Too raw today, but one to watch in 2026.
RHP Ismael Agreda (22, 1st)
Fangraphs’ mid-season prospect list described him conditionally as an “interesting roster candidate for the offseason.” My Bormie writeup generally applies here, with the exceptions of Agreda working as a starter much of the time but spending nearly the whole season at a lower level.
LHP Robby Ahlstrom (26, 2nd)
Ahlstrom had decent results in 2025, but he’s fairly established at his point, If he didn’t force his way onto the roster during the season, I don’t know why he’d be picked now. A hot spring or in-season stretch could get him over the line.
OF Aaron Zavala (25, 2nd)
I think not, but simply entertaining the idea shows how far he’s progressed. I omitted him completely in last year’s preview, and when I saw him in late March, I thought he’d be released rather than assigned to AA for a third time. He looked no different to me than his previous two years off elbow surgery. Zavala did in fact return to Frsico, where after a month he’d drawn a ridiculous 19 walks but still wasn’t hitting (.152 average, 283 slug). Then, out of nowhere, he produced his best month in three years. His initial foray in the PCL was short and bad, but upon return, he batted .275/.388/.500 with statcast data that mostly hovered around league averages. His time in AAA also revealed a surprisingly aggressive first-strike approach, contra previous passivity.
RHP Josh Stephan (24, 2nd)
Stephan pitched last year’s Arizona Fall League championship game and was on the bubble for a 40 spot. I leaned against, and Texas declined. He reached AAA at the end of 2025 but didn’t improve his selection likelihood.
3B Gleider Figuereo (21, 1st)
Figuereo’s season resembled Sebastian Walcott in that he sustained his homer power while losing a big chunk of his doubles and triples. He didn’t have the type of season needed to earn a 40 spot. Off-topic: Figuereo is one of a large number of Spartanburger hitters who made at best tepid cases for promotion to Frisco, which is severely lacking in warm bodies at present. Some combination of semi-aggressive promotions and free agents will be necessary.
OF Trevor Hauver (26, 3rd)
No, but Hauver had a fine season in Round Rock after struggling mightily in 2024.
RHP Dylan MacLean (23, 2nd)
Returning from elbow surgery, the 2020 4th-rounder had a respectable showing at high-A Hub City but will need to do that and more in AA to receive consideration.
RHP Brock Porter (22, 1st)
To be honest, I hadn’t initially considered Porter because he was drafted out of high school in 2022, but he turned 19 two days before the cutoff, making him eligible this year to my knowledge. To be blunt, it doesn’t matter. MLB.com labeled him Texas’s toughest Rule 5 decision, but that’s just not the case. While he pitched well enough to maintain an on-field assignment in low-A after last year’s setback, that doesn’t even remotely translate to serious deliberation for a 40 spot.
LHP Bryan Magdaleno (24, 2nd)
Magdaleno’s helium rise in 2024 put him in sincere contention for a 40 spot, but Texas and the league decided to wait and watch. Unfortunately, his control worsened from mediocre (14% BB+HBP rate) to calamitous (27%).
RHP Gavin Collyer
Collyer actually became a free agent after the season. Keeping him around would have required a 40 spot before the end of the season or a new minor deal. He reaches the upper 90s and ranked very high on various “stuff” models, but that stuff didn’t get great overall results and was undercut by poor control. Collyer may yet reach his potential, but I can’t blame the Rangers for moving on.
RHP Jose Gonzalez
Another free agent who’d crossed my mind as a 40 addition during the season, and someone I’d like to have back. I’m probably overvaluing him because I’ve been up to my ears in pitchers with awful control, and his is great. He’s probably good for 100+ quality upper-level innings somewhere in 2026.
Arizona Fall League Wrap
Rangers-affiliated Surprise won the league championship tournament following a 16-10 regular season. In the final, RF Dylan Dreiling and CF Chandler Pollard entered midway and went 2-3, including Dreiling’s single to score Pollard as part of a seven-run rally.
Control has decayed in the minors, and fewer top-flight pitchers are assigned to the league than hitters. The results in 2025 were a combined walk and hit-batter rate of 17.1% and a league OBP of .391, both record highs. I’m offering a synopsis of Texas participants, but more than ever, I’d advise not reading too much into the performances.
C Malcolm Moore
69 PA, .213/.275/.328, 4 doubles, 1 HR
Moore’s first full professional season wasn’t much fun. His hard-hit rate in the fall was adequate (42% compared to the 43% league average), but that contact was concentrated in the upper 90s, so his median and upper-level exit velocity was lacking. He also couldn’t take advantage of the wildness, swinging (and missing) more than average and drawing only three walks versus 22 strikeouts.
OF Dylan Dreiling
55 PA, .271/.364/.438, 1 double, 2 triples, 1 HR
Dreiling’s fall was more fruitful and conducive to an April assignment to Frisco (to the extent the action here moves the needle). His hard-hit rate of 51% ranked 13th among 88 with at least 20 balls in play.
IF/OF Chandler Pollard
50 PA, .289/.460/.342, 2 doubles, 10 walks, 8 SB
Pollard had a nice showing for a 21-year-old with virtually no experience above low-A. He hadn’t played in real games since mid-June following an injury immediately after promotion to high-A. His 36% swing rate and 10 walks in 12 games revealed a willingness to take what was given, which was plenty.
C/1B Ben Hartl
31 PA, .125/.290/.208, 2 doubles, 4 HBP
Hartl’s statcast data was pretty grim, but he didn’t play often and I’m inclined to give him a pass. His specialty is getting hit, and he led the team with four HBP.
IF Sebastian Walcott
5 PA, .500/.600/.750, double
Walcott departed early with forearm fatigue, replaced by Pollard.
RHP Jose Corniell
18 IP, 7.50 ERA, 10% BB+HBP, 22% SO, .333/.402/.462 oppo line
Maybe I’m playing favorites, but I’m more interested in Corniell and Santos getting more post-injury work than how they performed. Fastball avg. 95.3, top 98.0, sinker 93.1, cutter 88.8, change 87.7, sweeper 81.1.
RHP Winston Santos
18.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 15% BB+HBP, 22% SO, .254/.365/.423 oppo
See above. Santos threw four-seamers 63% of the time, averaging 96 and peaking at 99.6. He added a slider (avg. 84.6) and change (87.4).
RHP Emiliano Teodo
4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 31% BB+HBP, 38% SO, .000/.313/.000 oppo
Teodo made only four appearances, none after the season’s midway point, and he walked five in four innings.
RHP Joey Danielson
6 IP, 7.50 ERA, 30% BB+HBP, 27% SO, .269/.486/.346 oppo
Danielson was a mildly surprising selection, as he’d handled a full workload by modern standards (56 relief innings) in his first season out of college. His control faltered near midseason and was worse than ever in the AFL. His velocity was fine (95 four-seamer and sinker, 89 cutter, 86 sinker). Rest, then regroup.
LHP Kolton Curtis
7.2 IP, 11.74 ERA, 24% BB+HBP, 20% SO, .314/.478/.400
Curtis’s change and slider generated a huge miss rate but not a huge miss total, because batters weren’t compelled to swing very often. The 21-year-old has potential but lacks control, and the tougher environment (both in competition and physics) was just too much right now.
Staying
RHP Trey Supak, RHP Peyton Gray and IF Richie Martin have re-signed. All finished last season at Round Rock.
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