PLAYOFF PREVIEW: HIGH-A SOUTH ATLANTIC LEAGUE SEMIFINALS
Hub City Spartanburgers (65-66) vs. Tampa Bay-affiliated Bowling Green Hot Rods (69-61)
Season Run Differential: Hub City -1, Bowling Green +63
Last 20 Games: Hub City 10-10, Bowling Green 11-9
Season Series: Bowling Green 6-5
How They Got Here
Bowling Green solely owned the first-half lead for the last 3.5 weeks but never by more than two games, holding off Hub City and a Greenville squad that faltered late.
With 13 games to play in the second half, Hub City, Bowling Green and Greenville were tied at 27-26. The Spartanburgers led by two games entering the final series but lost four of six while Bowling Green won five to capture the second-half title. Hub City still advanced because of the second-best second-half record (34-32). Greenville (66-66) would have advanced instead of Hub City under the old playoff rules that used the second-best full-season record.
History
2025 is Hub City’s inaugural season. Texas’s high-A squad was eliminated in the opening rounds of 2023 and 2019 following league championships by Down East (2017) and 2016 (High Desert).
Bowling Green’s history is formidable, including three Sally titles in the four seasons since realignment. Prior to 2020, the Hot Rods were a perennially strong low-A entry.
Top 30 Active Prospects Per MLB.com
Hub City:
#8 RHP Caden Scarborough
#11 C Malcolm Moore
#16 OF Dylan Dreiling
#23 RHP Kolton Curtis
#29 OF Maxton Martin
Bowling Green:
#6 OF Aidan Smith
#10 RHP Trevor Harrison
#11 RHP Santiago Suarez
#12 RHP Jose Urbina
#13 RHP Gary Gill Hill
#27 C Nathan Flewelling
#28 MIF Emilien Pitre
#29 MIF Adrian Santana
Offense / Possible Position Players
C Malcolm Moore / Ben Hartl
1B Arturo Disla / Rafe Perich
2B John Taylor / Casey Cook
3B Gleider Figuereo / Rafe Perich
SS Luke Hanson / John Taylor
LF Casey Cook / Yeison Morrobel
CF Dylan Dreiling
RF Maxton Martin / Antonis Macias
Sorry, but this is a bland offense. The Burgers scored 6% fewer runs than the league average with a 95 OPS+ and didn’t do anything well except avoid strikeouts. 3B Gleider Figuereo (.201/.287/.353) led the club with 18 homers but hit only three in 36 games after the All-Star break. Malcolm Moore (.198/.293/.271) sneaked in a nice week in August but otherwise struggled after returning from a broken finger. Rafe Perich (.202/.322/.274) didn’t hit much after being promoted, and Yeison Morrobel (.170/.248/.278) declined in a repeat at this level.
The good news is that both 2025 2nd-rounder Dylan Dreiling (.226/.319/.381) and 3rd-rounder Casey Cook (.205/.302/.294) were better down the stretch. Dreiling had the team’s most homers (four) after the break and pushed his season OPS+ to 113. Newcomer Maxton Martin (.258/.347/.445 including Hickory) hit well after his promotion from Hickory. Ben Hartl (.245/.389/.305 including Hickory) is the #2 catcher but also the best on-base threat thanks to 33 walks and 32 (!) HBP in 337 trips to the plate, mostly in low-A. 1B/COF Quincy Scott (.231/.328/.321) was activated from a lengthy IL stint today; he’s yet another slightly-below-average hitter but an improvement on Morrobel and can swipe a base.
Paxton Kling played only 11 games with the Burgers, but his injury last week brought wholesale changes to the defensive alignment. Casey Cook spent his entire season at second or short until last Friday, when he made the first of three straight starts in left (his most common position at UNC in his draft year). John Taylor started the final three games at second, which he’d manned before but never that frequently. Dylan Dreilng shifted back to center, which he’d typically occupied before Kling’s arrival.
Hub City will bat Macias, Dreiling, Moore, Hartl (DH), Martin, Cook, Figuereo, Taylor and Hanson. I’m happy to say that for fun, I played manager this morning and made my own lineup, and it was nearly identical with the primary exception of moving Moore to the bottom.
Bowling Green outscored the league average by 9%. Other than leading the league in walks, the offense isn’t especially dynamic, but they do everything pretty well and it adds up. 40-steal batters are CF Aidan Smith (.237/.331/.388, 14 HR), SS Adrian Santana (.263/.324/.326) and OF Mac Horvath (.233/.333/.395, 16 HR). 2B Emilien Pitre (.268/.356/.393, 9 HR, 14 SB) is good all-around.
Pitching / Possible Rotation (* equals guess based on past use)
Hub City:
SP1: Dylan MacLean (3.34 ERA, .200/.243/.366 oppo, 6% BB+HBP, 23% SO)
SP2: Caden Scarborough (0.00 ERA, .133/.204/.133 oppo, 8% BB+HBP, 39% SO)
SP3: Dalton Pence (1.55 ERA, .192/.259/.234 oppo, 9% BB+HBP and 28% SO)
MacLean isn’t the big name but is a capable starter, one of the only pitchers on the staff with good control. Aidan Curry, ordinarily the starter for Hub City’s second game of the week, is being skipped to push up Scarborough and Pence, who will still be pitching on normal rest because of a day off Wednesday. Scarborough has been indomitable, and Pence has adapted well to a starting role. Curry has been better since returning from an Arizona reboot, but Hub City has its three best starters lined up. Hopefully, they can be pushed a little harder than usual under the circumstances, because…
Hub City’s relief corps is worryingly thin. Gone are Erik Loomis, Wilian Bormie, Joey Danielson and Josh Mollerus. To a man, the relievers have distressing control, in aggregate a BB+HBP rate of over 20%. Victor Simeon got most of the save chances down the stretch but walked or hit 49 and unleashed 11 wild pitches in 44.2 IP. Simeon does miss bats, though (32% rate), and relying on him and the other high-K guys (Jesus Gamez, Case Matter, Adrian Rodriguez) might be a path forward.
Bowling Green:
SP1*: Trevor Harrison (3.33 ERA, .258/.362/.360 oppo, 15% BB+HBP, 24% SO)
SP2*: Marcus Johnson (4.50 ERA, .292/.314/.484 oppo, 3% BB+HBP, 24% SO)
SP3*: Garrett Gainey (3.29 ERA, .213/.265/.339 oppo, 7% BB+HBP, 23% SO)
Bowling Green’s run prevention was above average, but opponents batted .237 and slugged .374, both among the worst figures in the league. The Hot Rods were shockingly homer-prone, easily worst in the league, and they weren’t strong in strikeouts. They’re superior at avoiding walks, one of the best teams I’ve encountered. This does leave an opening for Hub City’s hitters, who as a group don’t have good power but don’t strike out much. A line of attack could be putting a bunch of balls in play, potentially stringing together some hits and maybe launching a few.
Drew Dowd (2.60 ERA, .196/.268/.286, 9% BB+HBP, 32% SO) was the save leader down the stretch and hasn’t allowed a run in 20 innings. Noah Beal and Seth Chavez were the busiest relievers; neither was especially effective. As a group, the BG pen has less upside but more stability. This afternoon, Bowling Green received relievers Jonathan Russell and Jadon Berkovich both of whom pitched well for low-A Charleston.
Defense
Hub City’s defense isn’t a weakness, but Bowling Green is better in several respects such as converting double play opportunities, limiting the running game and avoiding errors.
Advantages
Hitting – Bowling Green
Pitching – Hub City (rotation), Bowling Green (bullpen)
Defense – Bowling Green
Park Factor
Both parks are dead average.
Outlook
If I had to put $100 on the series, first I’d question my life choices, and then I’d pick Bowling Green. They’re better on paper. That said, this series is roughly the equivalent of the Royals facing the Mets. Hub City emerging victorious isn’t a stretch.
Most Recent Texas-Affiliated Championship Teams
AAA: 1996 Oklahoma City 89ers
AA: 2022 Frisco RoughRiders
Hi-A: 2017 Down East Wood Ducks (co-champion)
Lo-A: 2015 Hickory Crawdads
Short-A: 2008 Spokane Indians (RIP)
Rookie: 2019 Rangers
DSL: 2014 Rangers
Elsewhere
Tampa Bay claimed RHP Caleb Boushley. Trey Supak (AAA) and Josh Trentadue (AA) are starting tonight. Hickory’s season is over.
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