Last Thursday, Texas traded OF Yeremi Cabrera, IF Gavin Fien, IF Devin Fitz-Gerald, 1B Abimelec Ortiz and RHP Alejandro Rosario to Washington for LHP MacKenzie Gore. I was in the midst of some lengthy days inspecting several south Texas ranches when the news broke. Instead of typing a draft of my trade thoughts that evening, I reviewed my notes from the work day and planned the next as I ate enchiladas at a dive in Hebbronville. Gore would have to wait.
Baseball America had Fien 3rd on the Rangers, Fitz-Gerald 8th, Rosario 13th, Cabrera 14th and Ortiz outside the top 30 (but he shouldn’t be, in my opinion). Baseball Prospectus had Fien 2nd, Rosario 3rd, Fitz-Gerald 8th, Ortiz 16th and Cabrera 18th.* MLB Pipeline hasn’t offered its prospect rankings yet.
I’ll be honest: My immediate reaction was “that’s too much to give up.” And now I’ll be really honest: My immediate reaction to such trades is always “too much” because I’m biased. I write about Texas’s prospects, and when the Rangers trade them, I have fewer to write about. Instead of watching Abi Ortiz, I’ll be largely ignoring the yet-to-be-signed AAA vet who replaces him.
Despite that bias, over the years I have moved to the belief that prospects mostly exist to be traded. I don’t mean traded willy-nilly, but since most prospects don’t pan out, a critical skill for any club is to identify the time frame in which a prospect has possibly peaked in value and then capitalize, especially when the club’s competitive window demands it.
The Rangers may have accomplished just that for as many as four of the five players involved. Maybe that’s an overstatement, but Fitz-Gerald, Cabera and Ortiz are certainly on the upswing, and Fien hasn’t been around long enough to be anything but 2025’s 12th-overall pick. That of course doesn’t mean they’re all standing next to a cliff. Fien could be a top-100 guy next year (or right now, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law). Ortiz could make Washington’s Opening Day roster with a good spring. But it’s also possible that a good number of them could have middling seasons resulting in blander reassessments come autumn.**
“Polarizing” might be too strong a description of Fien, but he does have champions (like Law) and detractors (like Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, who rated him more a comp-round pick than a top-15. Nominally a shortstop, he has the common, conjoined questions of how far he’ll slide down the defensive spectrum and whether he’ll hit well enough at his eventual resting place. The Nats obviously viewed him favorably.
A baseball player from birth, Fitz-Gerald is exceptionally polished for his age. That can sometimes be a backhanded compliment. Polish gives a player a strong leg up in the lower levels compared to those still figuring out how to play, but at the higher levels, polish-over-talent types get exposed. Fitz isn’t lacking talent, though, and has the upside of an everyday 2B or 3B. Another possibility is a super-utility role, although how super will depend on what he can offer at short. Fitz-Gerald was the 165th player taken in the 2024 draft, so in a sense, his becoming a critical piece of a major trade is already a win for the Rangers.
Rosario is the one traded at an ebb, although he still has plenty of value. Remarkably, the gap between his elbow injury and surgery will be nearly a year, and he might still be ramping up when the 2027 season starts. Remember, Rosario missed the tail of 2024 as well. He’d been promoted to AA Frisco at the beginning of September but was shut down with fatigue before making an appearance there. Rosario will have no fewer than 32 months between pitches in real games.
Incidentally, Rosario’s final low-A start in 2024 was against Washington’s Fredericksburg affiliate and witnessed by yours truly while on business in DC. It was his worst of the seasons in terms of runs allowed, but I was still dazzled. A couple of hiccups aside, his stuff was terrific, he controlled it well, and he wasn’t one of those “well… if he can figure out a change” wannabes destined for relief. This fall, he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if unprotected, and I’m inclined to think he’ll be added despite the lengthy absence, assuming the recovery proceeds as planned. His upside is that high. In a chat, Longenhagen described his ceiling as “that of a player you basically can’t acquire.”
Cabrera batted .256/.364/.366 as a 19-year-old in low-A. More power may be on the way, and he’s a strong runner (43 SB, 4 caught) and solid in center. I’d tend to think of him more as a future 4th or 5th outfielder than a regular, but everyday play is conceivable. I will say that I saw Cabrera several times in two trips to Surprise, and he never showed me anything in person. Just completely, annoyingly nondescript. That’s just bad luck, not an indication of his future. Former Texas Echedry Vargas awed me in March 2024, and a year later he was batting .201/.255/.322 in high-A. Never get too high or low on limited looks.
I was looking forward to Ortiz’s 2026, and I say that as someone who at times has been out on him as a prospect. As a Ranger, there was a scenario in which he hit well from the get-go to replace a struggling Burger or Pederson. Everyone’s production is amplified by the environment in AAA, and Ortiz did play 11 of his 38 games at Albuquerque last year, but his line of .283/.388/.565 is backed by formidable Statcast data. He was especially proficient at attacking upper-third fastballs, particularly those starting the at-bat. I did notice that, as a group, opposing pitchers never adjusted, continuing to deal his preferred offerings despite ample evidence of negative outcomes. At some point, they will, and then we’ll find out what Ortiz can really do. The Nats don’t have a set 1B right now, best as I can tell.
This was a volume trade. I would rather the Rangers send this type of package than fewer and better prospects. Texas still has Sebastian Walcott, Caden Scarborough, David Davalillo, Jose Corneill and Winston Santos. Despite relative weakness in hitting prospects, the Rangers effected a hitter-heavy package. That does leave the Rangers very light on future bats and in the short run forces us to dream harder on last year’s draft haul and January’s international intake.
I’m not going to focus as much on Gore, because you probably already know about him. Rather than write about him at length myself, I’ll recommend this deep dive by Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball.
The short version is the Gore has the makings of a top-of-rotation pitcher. Contra Texas’s reputation as a place where pitchers go to die, the Rangers actually have a several-years-long history of getting strong results from newly acquired pitchers, plus a stadium far more favorable than The Ballpark. There’s a chance Gore surpasses prior results as a Ranger. But more likely, Texas is getting a #3 type, and that’s fine. Some days you’ll be thinking Texas simply stole him form the Nats, and some days you’ll be grimacing and checking on Fien’s stats at low-A Fredericksburg.
Gore misses a ton of bats but struggles with wildness and hard contact. He has a .325 career average on opposing balls in play, about 30 points above the NL average. Regression toward the mean would seem to be in order, but he’s faced 2,300 batters, and his season-long BABIP has never been lower than .309. Moving to Texas might help some, as Washington had perennially poor defense, but at this point the safer bet might be to assume he’s an outlier.
As of now, Texas has a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Gore, Jack Leiter, and probably either Jacob Latz or Kumar Rocker. That’s pretty darn good.
What of depth? Texas has needed at least ten starters in each of the past three seasons. Even with Gore, counting up to ten with the current roster isn’t easy. Cody Bradford is hopefully back in May, Jose Corniell is knocking on the door, and Winston Santos and David Davalillo are walking up the path. The latter three are awfully green, though. There are and will be more NRIs, of course, but I’d be amenable to another MLB contract if there’s any change to spare. Imagine an injury to one of the top four during Spring Training. Suddenly, both Latz and Rocker are in the rotation, the immediate backups are Corniell and someone like Nabil Crismatt, and the rebuilt-from-scratch bullpen will be under more pressure. Texas doesn’t have to rush another signing, though, if one’s in the offing. Last year, Patrick Corbin (an unexpected godsend) was signed on March 18th in response to Jon Gray’s injury.
The Rangers badly needed a pitcher of Gore’s caliber to contend, and they got one despite monetary constraints. They gave up a lot to acquire Gore.
But not too much.
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Prospect lists, transactions, more.
* Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are worth a subscription.
** To be clear, I’m not rooting against anyone Texas traded. Quite the opposite. Trade analysis can get a little bloodless, but at the end of the day, these are actual people, and rooting against people is a bad way to go through life.
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