SP Robert Dugger: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 94 P / 63 S, 4.34 ERA
Blaine Crim was 0-3 last night (along with six of his teammates), but let’s talk about his season. Crim has a 13% walk rate and more walks than strikeouts, exceptionally rare nowadays. His rate of balls in play over 95 MPH and in what I call the “good zone” (a combination of exit velos and angles that are either very likely to be a base hit or have around a 25%+ chance of leaving the park) are the best on the team. His popup and grounder rates are fine. Yet he’s hitting .275 and slugging. 418, not bad but ordinary, and at odds with the statcast data. What gives?
Some of the problem might be bad luck. Crim is batting 1-for-24 (.042) on grounders. The Express and their opponents are batting .157. Crim is 0-for-7 on balls I describe as “unlucky” (better-than-average exit velo but at an angle that tends to get caught). The Express and opponents are hitting .147 on those. Crim isn’t going beat out many grounders, but he ought to be able to squeeze a few more into the outfield.
Given his position and the presence of Nathaniel Lowe, Crim has to destroy the ball to draw attention. He’s not there yet, but I do think he’s been better than his slash stats would suggest.
SP Owen White: 3.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 4 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 79 P / 45 S, 3.73 ERA CF Evan Carter: 2-5, SB (5), .291/.443/.427 DH Trevor Hauver: 1-2, HR (2), .221/.370/.337 3B Thomas Saggese: 1-4, HR (2), .274/.324/.403
Owen White walked three in the 4th, the last of which ended his night. An earlier homer came on a belly-button-high 91 MPH fastball and was hit 465 feet. In White’s defense, he delivered it where instructed, as best as i could tell from watching on MiLB.tv.
SP Matt Brosky: 3.2 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 77 P / 45 S, 4.91 ERA RF Alejandro Osuna: 1-3, HR (1), BB, .240/.427/.327 C Cody Freeman: 1-3, HR (4), BB, .208/.259/.442
2022 8th-rounder Matt Brosky made his high-A debut, striking out seven of 19 batters but allowing a homer to Nick Schnell (who homered off Kumar Rocker Thursday).
Joining Brosky is righty Wyatt Sparks, who’d been assigned to Frisco after TJ surgery and didn’t fare well. Righty Eudrys Manon swapped places with Sparks.
Lo-A: Down East 2, Delmarva (BAL) 7 Down East: 7 hits, 6 walks, 12 strikeouts Opponent: 10 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 17-12, tied for first
SP Brock Porter: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 64 P / 40 S, 1.37 ERA RP Brayan Mendoza: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Alberto Mota: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA 1B Abi Ortiz: 2-4, 3B, HR (5), BB, .292/.379/.569 RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-4, SB (8), .207/.378/.207 3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-3, BB, .195/.320/.299
For the first time this season, Brock Porter avoided putting two runners on base via walk or HBP. His leash remains tight. He was pulled with two outs in the 4th at 64 pitches, equal to his career high.
Today’s Starters AAA: Marvel AA: Krauth Hi-A: Stephan Lo-A: TBD
Five Years Ago Yesterday Round Rock’s Willie Calhoun collected his fifth multi-hit game of the month. “He doesn’t have a fit in Arlington with the roster as currently constructed,” I wrote in 2018, and upon seeing that I thought “who on the 95-loss 2018 Rangers was keeping him out?” The typical lineup in mid-May included an outfield of Gallo, DeShields, and Mazara, plus Choo at DH. Okay, then.
SP Cole Winn: 3.1 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 4 R, 4 BB, 4 SO, 81 P / 40 S, 7.88 ERA RP Grant Anderson: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.97 ERA
OKC refused to offer at Cole Winn’s out-of-zone fastballs, of which there were many. Control was manageable until the 4th, when he walked three of his final four batters.
RF Rafael Ortega homered for the fourth time, and 3B Dio Arias hit his first.
Texas released RHP Stephen Villines, who’d been on the shelf for a year.
SP Jack Leiter: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 SO, 89 P / 56 S, 4.35 ERA 2B Luisangel Acuna: 2-5, HR (3), .316/.374/.474 LF Dustin Harris: 3-4, HR (3), BB, 2 SB (13), .215/.366/.402 C Scott Kapers: 2-3, HR (4), HBP, .333/.389/.651
Did Jack Leiter pitch as well as last week? No. Did he pitch better than most of his pro outings? Very much so. Leiter again emphasized the fastball (65% of all pitches) and again dealt it effectively (70% strike rate). One of every six tallied a swinging strike.
Leiter started 13 of 19 batters with a strike. He didn’t throw more curves than sliders, but the curve received nearly equal billing and was more effective than usual. Leiter still tended to use it as a first-pitch strike grabber (seven thrown, four strikes). The slider was rare until the 4th. Relative to the curve, it missed more bats, but ten of 16 were balls. I saw one change for a swinging strike. At least, I think it was a change. I want very badly for it to be a change.
Two liners were scorched directly to waiting outfielders, and Yoyner Fajardo hit a ball at an otherworldly 117 MPH, fortunately on the ground. Still, all told, Leiter had another solid outing.
The bullpen did not. The bullpen has been a problem lately.
SP Kumar Rocker: 4.2 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 5 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 69 P / 46 S, 3.86 ERA RP Seth Clark: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Jacob Maton: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 6.75 ERA 1B Josh Hatcher: 1-4, HR (6), .298/.359/.532 LF Geisel Cepeda: 2-4, .238/.368/.286
One out into the 5th inning, Kumar Rocker was cruising. He’s retired 13 batters on just 46 pitches, dealing 30 strikes including nine swinging. Most of the contact was gentle. Then, suddenly, Rocker ran into trouble, resulting in a strike rate barely over 50%, a walk, two balls over the fence, and a double off the track. Another hit (a single off a not-bad fastball) ended his night.
We’ve been here before. Rocker has pitched 27 full innings and parts of two others. 26 of those 29 were scoreless. 12 runs have scored in the other three. One of those three outings began a game, so it’s not as though he’s unable to recover.
By my count, Rocker missed four bats on fastballs, seven on sliders, and two on curves. Or should I say, “curves.” One pitch I’d marked as a curve was an 84 MPH slider per the announcer, but it and a handful of others lacked the down/glove-side action of his usual slider, so I’m calling it a curve based on its distinct shape. Regardless, it too was a useful pitch. Before his mini-meltdown, Rocker’s 19 breakers drew two calls, 13 swings, and nine swinging strikes. I saw one firm change that was taken outside.
Lo-A: Down East 2, Delmarva (BAL) 4 Down East: 6 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 2 hits, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 17-11, 1 G up
SP Josh Gessner: 6 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 72 P / 45 S, 1.69 ERA DH Yeison Morrobel: 1-3, BB, .185/.371/.185
I haven’t gotten a good look at Gessner this season, but neither have opposing hitters (.119/.286/.209), who have reached 16 times on walks or HBPs but collected only eight hits.
Yeison Morrobel is back from a brief IL stint.
Today’s Starters AAA: Dugger AA: White Hi-A: TBD (Santos listed but is on the IL) Lo-A: Officially TBD (Porter)
Five Years Ago Yesterday I saw Frisco’s Brett Martin struggle in San Antonio (5 IP, 13 runners, 4 R), but after two balls to Fernando Tatis Jr., he dropped in two called-strike curves and then blew a fastball by Tatis for strike three. He also completed the other three strikeouts with changeups.
Texas has designated RHP Ian Kennedy for assignment and called up LHP John King. Kennedy has a 7.20 ERA but generally hasn’t been that bad, holding opponents to a .268/.326/.415 line. Specifically, however, 10 of his 15 runners allowed have scored, and he appeared prominently in dismal losses to Houston and Cincinnati. I haven’t mentioned King much this season because you’ve seen him and he is who he is. King has been okay in Round Rock: .286/.333/.343 opposing line, good control, not many strikeouts. On the downside, no Express pitcher has allowed a greater rate of balls hit 95+ MPH than his 51%. He also has an outstanding 64% grounder rate, so most of that hard contact results in groundouts or singles.
SP Lucas Jacobsen: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 37 P / 26 S, 5.11 ERA RP Kyle Cody: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 5.11 ERA RP Taylor Hearn: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0.75 ERA 2B Justin Foscue: 2-4, BB, .288/.404/.500 LF Josh Sale: 1-4, HR (1)
Taylor Hearn is unscored upon in seven straight outings. Opponents are batting .171/.320/.171 without an extra-base hit, but he’s walked or hit nine in 12 innings.
Texas sent righty Nick Krauth back to Frisco and promoted lefty Grant Wolfram. Krauth escaped Reno unscathed in his AAA debut but surrendered a grand slam two nights ago at home. Wolfram has worse control but misses many more bats.
Texas also signed lefty Josh Dye to help Round Rock in relief. Per Statcast, Dye throws a bazillion changeups mixed with a slider. Fangraphs ranked him Kansas City’s #15 prospect in 2022, while other reports I’ve seen thought of him as an “under the radar” type. Dye has good control but was very homer-prone in AAA Omaha last year. KC released him last week.
SP Ryan Garcia: 2.2 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 8 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 66 P / 39 S, 9.64 ERA RP Hever Bueno: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 4.05 ERA SS Luisangel Acuna: 1-3, 3 BB, .313/.373/.453 2B Thomas Saggese: 4-6, 2B, HR (1), .278/.331/.391 C Liam Hicks: 1-3, HR (1), BB, HBP RF Trevor Hauver: 3-5, .228/.386/.316
On Education Day, visiting Wichita gave the kids an unpleasantly high slugging percentage calculation: (11 singles + 3 doubles + 4 homers) / 42 at-bats = (11 + 3*2 + 4*4) / 42 = 33 / 42 = .786
I don’t know what’s up with Nick Starr (1.2 IP, 7 runners, 4 R). He’s already allowed more runs and hits than all of 2022 (which was only 30.1 innings because of injury and light use, but still). Starr was Frisco’s primary late-inning reliever from June onward last year.
Part of the Joey Gallo trade, Trevor Hauver continues to walk at an impressive rate, but his strikeouts have ballooned from 25% to 40% and taken his power with them.
Up to Frisco from Hickory is righty Michael Brewer (2018, 32nd round), who struck out 16 against three walks in 10.1 innings with a 2.61 ERA.
SP Mitch Bratt: 4 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 72 P / 48 S, 3.48 ERA RP Florencio Serrano: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 3.00 ERA CF Daniel Mateo: 1-4, HR (3), .263/.280/.453 1B Josh Hatcher: 1-4, HR (5), .300/.364/.511
Mitch Bratt entered the game with five homers allowed in 103.1 career innings. He’s walked only three all season.
Lo-A: Down East 2, Delmarva (BAL) 0 Down East: 8 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 4 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 17-10, 2 G up
SP Joseph Montalvo: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 5 SO, 72 P / 37 S, 2.49 ERA RP Luis Ramirez: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1.59 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.50 ERA C Tucker Mitchell: 1-3, 2B, BB, .368/.486/.561 LF Yosy Galan: 2-2, 2 BB, .284/.400/.554 2B Danyer Cueva: 2-3, BB, .265/.295/.361
2022 7th-rounder Luis Ramirez has been terrific outside one sketchy outing (4 BB and an HBP in 0.2 IP). Here’s video from yesterday. Against Joseph Montalvo, opponents have reached 16 times on HBPs or walks but only eight times on hits.
Tucker Mitchell’s production hadn’t impressed prior to 2023. He batted .185/.325/.319 in 43 games with Down East last year. Now 22, he was Texas’s 14th-round pick in 2021.
Yosy Galan should spend a decent part of the season at Hickory if he keeps up this pace. He spent all of 2022 at Down East.
Texas released OF Jeferson Espinal from Down East and IF Keithron Moss and C Ismael Padua from the complex league. Moss was signed in late 2017 with some of the money intended for Shohei Ohtani. Moss had some power, patience, and speed, but contact was a persistent problem.
Cody Bradford pitched well again. The change in particular was a menace: 23 thrown, 16 swings, eight misses. An uncommonly high portion of Bradford’s changes land within the strike zone, but with his spotless delivery and contrasted against his high-in-the-zone fastball, batters are unable to do much with it. Two of the hits were on the light side: A Yonny Hernandez grounder that snuck past Davis Wendzel at shallow third, and a high, shallow fly that LF Sandro Fabian, CF Rafael Ortega, and SS Jonathan Ornelas lost in the twilight. Ortega ducked and covered his head; the ball landed 30 feet to his right.
Foscue reached safely four times. In his first trip up against top-100 prospect Gavin Stone, Foscue reached down to rocket a low slider 401 feet the other way at a 19-degree angle. He later stole his fifth base of the season. In his prior 163 career professional games, he also stole five, and he swiped only three in 139 college games. Foscue isn’t fast, not even in a “once he’s out of first gear” sense, but he seems to have developed a talent for taking advantage of what’s given.
In his first game of 2023, veteran catcher David Freitas hit a grand slam off Nick Krauth for all of Oklahoma City’s runs. Round Rock would have overtaken OKC for first place with a victory.
Catcher Promotion Day: Sam Huff to the Rangers, Jordan Procyshen to Round Rock, Liam Hicks to Frisco.
SP TK Roby: 6 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 79 P / 49 S, 6.83 ERA RP Grant Wolfram: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 1.88 ERA RP Marc Church: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.08 ERA RF Kellen Strahm: 2-4, HR (2), .231/.333/.363
Wichita scored the go-ahead run in the 10th on a flyout and groundout. The game ended when Evan Carter was thrown out at home attempting to score from third on a wild pitch. I don’t blame him for trying. The ball didn’t skitter away quite as far as it seemed it would, and the catcher made a terrific throw. Carter was 0-5 with three strikeouts yesterday and 1-17 over the last four. Carter’s relative quietness combined with Leody Taveras’s 118 OPS+ has temporarily quelled talk of getting Carter up to Arlington forthwith. That’s fine.
TK Roby is being BABIPed to death (.412 average on balls in play) but has also allowed 13 doubles, most in AA.
After a slow start, Down East has averaged 7.3 runs per game in the last two-plus weeks and leads the league with 22 homers.
Anthony Gutierrez leads the organization in grounder rate (66%) and pull rate (60%). Last year, he was near the middle of the Texas pack in both categories. He’s having a nice enough season so far, but as you might guess, his power is down compared to last year.
Today’s Starters AAA: Kyle Cody AA: Ryan Garcia Hi-A: Mitch Bratt Lo-A: Joseph Montalvo
Five Years Ago Yesterday Nomar Mazara (MLB), Charles Leblanc (hi-A), and Tyreque Reed (lo-A) hit walk-off homers, and Hanser Alberto (AAA) hit a walk-off three-run double. Reed’s homer came as a pinch-hitter in his 2018 and full-season debut.
AAA: Round Rock 6, at Reno (ARI) 11 Round Rock: 10 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 12 hits, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 21-11, 0.5 GB SP James Marvel: 3 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 64 P / 42 S, 6.00 ERA
3B Dio Arias and LF Sandro Fabian had three hits apiece. Texas signed righty James Marvel out of the the indy Atlantic League. He’d spent eight years in the Pittsburgh organization, making four MLB starts in 2019.
I haven’t performed any park factor calculations yet because we’re barely a month into the season, but Round Rock almost certainly has the best pitching/defense (4.5 runs per game) and worst offense (5.3) in the Pacific Coast League. The league average is 6.3 runs per game, which would be the highest by a wide margin in modern PCL history (since 1998, when the American Association dissolved). The previous high was 5.9 runs in 2019, spurred by a ridiculous increase in homers. This year’s homer rate is lower than any of the past three seasons. The difference is walks and HBPs, which have increased to an ungodly 14.3% of all plate appearances.
Sugar Land defeated Albuquerque 24-8 yesterday, but poor control wasn’t much of a factor. Albuquerque walked five batters, not good but not terrible in light of the score. The Space Cowboys batted .536 and slugged 1.071 with eight homers, five of which traveled at least 432 feet. They put 20 balls in play with an exit velocity of at least 100 MPH. (The average per team in a Round Rock game this season is five.) ABQ starter Josh Rogers allowed ten runs on a single, four doubles and five homers in two innings.
SP Wyatt Sparks: 1.1 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 7 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 40 P / 26 S, 14.54 ERA CF Evan Carter: 1-4, BB, .301/.463/.452 SS Luisangel Acuna: 1-3, BB, .317/.366/.458
Baseball America updated its top 100 prospects, boosting OF Evan Carter from 26th to 11th and Owen White from 66th to 59th. No other Rangers appear, nor did they originally.
SP Gavin Collyer: 5 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 3 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 77 P / 44 S, 5.59 ERA RP Josh Stephan: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.80 ERA SS Max Acosta: 2-3, BB, .350/.416/.525
Max Acosta’s .350 average ranks fourth in the league and second in the organization (behind Tucker Mitchell’s .370 at Down East).
Lo-A: wet
The game against Fredericksburg won’t be rescheduled.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Tim Lincecum pitched in a real game for the first time in 20 months on rehab with the Express. The results weren’t awful (1 IP, 2 runners, 2 runs, 2 strikeouts), but most of his fastballs were in an 85-87 range topping at 90. He had more success with a slider and change. Lincecum would make nine more appearances with Round Rock, but unfortunately he quickly established that he’d be of no help to the Rangers. Texas released him in early June, and he wouldn’t pitch professionally again.
SP Robert Dugger: 6 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 8 SO, 82 P / 56 S, 4.63 ERA RP Taylor Hearn: 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.93 ERA RF Rafael Ortega: 3-5, 2 2B, HR (3), .261/.358/.435 2B Diosbel Arias: 4-5, .317/.417/.366
I can’t say I’ve watched him closely, but Robert Dugger has been pretty good (if walk-prone) since allowing seven runs in just 0.2 innings on April 2. Dugger’s MLB career doesn’t inspire (7.17 ERA in 86.2 innings), but I suppose he’s somewhere in the mix if Texas needs a replacement starter, especially if the idea was to DFA that starter after he was no longer needed. He wouldn’t be my first choice, though.
Rafael Ortega is the likely replacement if Texas needs an outfielder.
SP Owen White: 6 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 81 P / 47 S, 2.93 ERA 2B Luisangel Acuna: 2-4, HR (2), .316/.362/.462 RF Kellen Strahm: 3-4, 2B, .229/.340/.337
I haven’t been able to see any of Owen White’s performance last night. Statistically, it fits well with his previous starts, although he did allow his first homer.
Midland turned an unlikely triple play in the 9th. With runners on first and second, Jax Biggers bunted to pitcher Chase Cohen (on an 0-2 count!), who deftly snared the ball. Both runners were moving on contact and easily doubled and tripled off.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Ariel Jurado allowed two runs in six innings for Frisco. In two weeks, he would make his MLB debut. Jurado made 41 appearances in AA and none in AAA before reaching the Majors. Jurado had peaked as a prospect in 2016, after which his decreasing strikeout rate brought his upside into question. He’s succeeding in Korea in 2023.
SP Cole Winn: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 1 SO, 66 P / 38 S, 7.53 ERA RP Eury Rosado: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA SS Jonathan Ornelas: 3-4, BB, .244/.389/.326
“Disaster” starts (more runs than innings) are a part of life in the Pacific Coast League, but Winn didn’t help himself with five walks. He issued three in the 3rd and left after an uncommonly high 37 pitches. Winn’s BB/HBP rate is 15.5%, very slightly lower than last year’s 16.1%, but the contact has been harder. He reintroduced a few sliders last night.
Texas traded reliever Zack Littell to Boston for cash, an interesting move in light of the parent club’s bullpen troubles of late. Littell apparently had a contract clause that compelled a trade if another club was willing to place him on the MLB roster, with the Rangers having a right of first refusal to promote him themselves. Texas declined that option and accepted the trade. I’d mentioned him as the best of Texas’s offseason relief depth additions; opponents were batting only .196/.229/.283. His velocity was down slightly from prior years, and the batted ball data showed a little luck. His MLB career contains intermittent success with occasional control issues and persistent homer worries. Would he be better than Leclerc in general and Smith last night? Sure, but who wouldn’t? Would he be an improvement on typical outings from those two? Far less likely. An improvement on Josh Sborz? Heh, well, now maybe we’re getting somewhere. Perhaps Littell would have been a net improvement to the Texas bullpen, but I was never of the thought that keeping him in AAA was inexcusable.
Eury Rosado is a 22-year-old who hadn’t pitched above rookie level. He’s here to fill a gap. Rosado dealt a low-90s fastball and upper-70s curve.
AA: Frisco 4, at Midland (OAK) 1 Frisco: 8 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 6 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 13-12, tied for first
SP Jack Leiter: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 91 P / 60 S, 5.19 ERA RP Alex Speas: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Antoine Kelly: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2.79 ERA LF Dustin Harris: 2-5, HR (2), .221/.382/.419 RF Kellen Strahm: 2-4, HR (1), .203/.323/.304
Jack Leiter produced arguably his best start as a professional. One outing last May was cleaner (no walks), but under the circumstances, last night’s might be more important. When I saw him in San Antonio last month, I said I’d been “waiting for some indication of changeup development, but at this point I’m putting that aside until the fastball comes around. The house needs a solid foundation.”
For the first time in a long while, Leiter had a solid foundation. By my count, 67 of 86 pitches that I saw* were fastballs. 46 were strikes, 18 of the swinging variety. They had a ton of ride, consistently scooting over opposing bats. Instead of most plate appearances being an exercise in frustration, Leiter had a plan and churned through hitters quickly. Admittedly, yhe plan wasn’t much more complicated than “ha ha, y’all can’t hit my fastball,” but he executed it. No inning got away from him. Four at-bats with runners in scoring position amounted to nothing. RF Kellen Strahm caught a medium fly on the line and delivered a strike to the plate to nab a runner.
Secondaries weren’t a significant part of the package, but he relied more on the curve early and slider late. His curve doesn’t look at all like his Vandy days, but it was functional. He gained three more misses with a the slider. If he threw a change, I missed it. I believe his total of 21 swinging strikes are a career high.
We’ve been through this process before with Winn, where a would-be “comeback” outing was followed by more troubles, so I don’t want to oversell this outing. Hopefully, it’s a building block. At the least, it’s evidence of the kind of pitcher Leiter can be and might become. Last night, Leiter was simply too good for an AA lineup.
* Midland’s camera crew loves side views of hitters and mid-pitch cuts, so I couldn’t categorize a handful of pitches and took educated guesses on a few others.)
SP Kumar Rocker: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 SO, 68 P / 47 S, 2.70 ERA RP Michael Brewer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1.93 ERA CF Daniel Mateo: 2-4, SB (7), .265/.284/.422 SS Max Acosta: 2-4, HR (3), .338/.400/.519 RF Alejandro Osuna: 0-2, 2 BB, 2 SB (8), .255/.456/.327
Hickory lacks an MiLB.tv feed, so I’ll outsource the observation to Mark Parker: “68 pitches, 47 strikes, 12 of 20 1st pitch strikes, 10 missed bats, 3 on fastballs, the rest mostly breaking balls, 2 on changeups. Fastball sat 94-95 much of the evening. pulled 2-seam out a little later, but not much.”
Rocker can simply overwhelm hitters with his slider and fastball, so in that respect I don’t think there’s much to be gained from analyzing his stats other than to say he’s too good for high-A. His strikeout rate is 42%. If Texas had the thought to fast-track him as a reliever, he’d be in Frisco. What matters to me are the progress of his curve, change and sinker. Maybe we’ll get a report on those in his road start next week.
Max Acosta needs one more homer to tie last year’s total of four.
Lo-A: Down East 15, at Fredericksburg (WAS) 9 (10) Down East: 15 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 10 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 13-10
SP Brock Porter: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 60 P / 35 S, 1.69 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 1.69 ERA RF Jojo Blackmon: 2-4, 2 BB, .214/.362/.411 C Tucker Mitchell: 3-5, 2B, HR (2), .400/.508/.600 2B Miguel Villarroel: 3-6, HR (2), .247/.263/.370 LF Yosy Galan: 3-5, 2B, .254/.377/.524
Lo-A: Down East 2, at Fredericksburg (WAS) 1 (7) Down East: 2 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 4 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts Record: 14-10, 0.5 GB
SP Dylan MacLean: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 78 P / 50 S, 3.57 ERA RP Adrian Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.80 ERA 3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-2, BB, .162/.305/.250
In the opener, with two outs in the 9th and down to his last strike on three pitches, Miguel Villarroel eventually stubbed a grounder about 40′ toward third for a game-tying RBI single. The Woodies then sent nine to the plate in the 10th.
Brock Porter ended up starting the first game that began last night but was suspended by a faulty second base. Per usual, he was extremely hard to hit but had some occasional control lapses. Porter missed nine bats on a change, two breakers and six fastballs. According to the screen graphics, the heater ranged from 90 to 94, and the slowest might have had some cutting action. Unusually, his curve, slider, and change all ran in a the same, fairly narrow range, mostly 78 to 80. * Here’s highlights from the official account.
In the second game, Adrian Rodriguez entered the 6th with a one-run lead, three on, and none out. A strikeout of Elijah Green on a 100 MPH fastball and a double-play grounder ended that threat, and he worked a 1-2-3 7th for a tough save.
* The readings on the screen and by the announcer didn’t always match. During Adrian Rodriguez’s first batter, they varied by as much as 3 MPH in both directions. Per Eric Bach in Fredericksburg, the velos coming out of his mouth are from Hawkeye. The screen graphics might be from a conventional gun and less reliable.
Today’s Starters AAA: Dugger AA: White Hi-A: Santos Lo-A: TBD
Five Years Ago Yesterday “Tim Lincecum will begin an assignment in Round Rock on Monday.”
SP Kyle Cody: 3 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 62 P / 36 S, 5.85 ERA RP John King: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 2.20 ERA RP Grant Anderson: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.17 ERA RP Jake Latz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 6.57 ERA 2B Justin Foscue: 3-4, 2 2B, BB, .289/.410/.495 C Sam Huff: 2-5, HR (5), .277/.330/.482
Grant Anderson struck out the side on 12 pitches. Anderson has spent part of the season in AA, so I lack the amount of Statcast data available for others, but so far he’s getting an impressive percentage of both swinging and called strikes. He’s fanned 12 of 21 batters since returning to the Express. In 2022, like Chase Lee, his occasional meltdowns were exceptionally melty, and avoiding them will improve his chances at a look in Arlington. Anderson’s money pitch is a slider that has generated a miss on 48% of opposing swings.
SP Ryan Garcia: 0.2 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 5 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 33 P / 21 S, 6.75 ERA RP Hever Bueno: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 5.06 ERA DH Evan Carter: 3-3, BB, HBP, SB (4), .333/.495/.506 SS Luisangel Acuna: 2-5, 2B, SB (14), .324/.373/.444 1B Dustin Harris: 2-3, 3B, 2 BB, 3 SB (10), .210/.381/.383
Evan Carter reached safely five times, a feat he’s already accomplished three times in 2023.
Dustin Harris has a heady .381 OBP, but the contact is lacking so far. Remember, Harris batted .327 two years ago, albeit at lower classifications. He’s actually hitting for a higher average than last year when he makes contact, but the difference is strikeouts. His rate has climbed to 31% vs. last year’s 19%. That’s an extra 13 strikeouts in 22 games compared to last year’s rate.
SP Mitch Bratt: 5 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 69 P / 54 S, 2.70 ERA RP Eudrys Manon: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 3.86 ERA 1B Josh Hatcher: 1-4, HR (4), BB, .316/.373/.526 DH Liam Hicks: 2-3, BB, .342/.479/.447 C Cody Freeman: 3-5, 2B, SB (1), .236/.295/.491
Mitch Bratt missed a season-high ten bats and has walked only three in 16.2 innings. For the season, Hickory is close to average with runners in scoring position (.261/.361/.376), but not lately. Knotted at five in the 8th, the Crawdads loaded the bases with none out but couldn’t score.
Lo-A: suspended
In the top of the 1st, second base became unsecured and couldn’t be repaired. I am not kidding. They’ll finish this one and add a seven-inning game tonight.
Five Years Ago Yesterday AJ Alexy carried a no-hitter into the 6th at low-A Hickory. This season, Alexy has fallen apart at AAA Charlotte, walking or hitting 40% of his opponents and losing his 40-man spot.
SP Cody Bradford: 5.14 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 5 SO, 91 P / 56 S, 1.07 ERA 3B Justin Foscue: 1-3, BB, .269/.393/.462 1B Blaine Crim: 1-3, BB 2B Davis Wendzel: 2-3, .200/.333/.338 Cody Bradford allowed multiple runs for the first time in 2023. Bradford has an 11% BB/HBP rate, better than the league average but not up to his usual standard. He also began last year with slightly impaired control. A major difference in 2023 is homers. Bradford allowed eight in last year’s first six starts, but over the same period this season, he’s surrendered just one, plus only two other extra-base bases. AAA: Round Rock 7, at Reno (ARI) 3 (7) Round Rock: 7 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 8 hits, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 19-9, 1.5 GB
SP Nick Krauth: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 57 P / 34 S, 0.00 ERA DH Blaine Crim: 1-3, 3B, BB, .300/.404/.463 C Sam Huff: 2-4, 2 HR (4), .269/.326/.449
Nick Krauth acquitted himself in his AAA debut. He hadn’t spent much time in AA, and he might hop back and forth as needed. Both of Sam Huff’s homers were 20-degree lasers hit well over 100 MPH.
AA: Frisco 0, at Midland (OAK) 7 Frisco: 2 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 13 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts Record: 12-11, tied for first
SP TK Roby: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 84 P / 49 S, 7.04 ERA RP Juan Mejia: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA DH Luisangel Acuna: 1-4, BB, 3 SB (13), .320/.372/.437
A romp for the home side. Ryan Cusick, picked 21st overall in 2021 and part of the Matt Olson trade, one-hit the Riders for six innings.
SP Larson Kindreich: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 58 P / 36 S, 2.57 ERA RP Seth Clark: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 1.74 ERA RP Michael Brewer: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Daniel Mateo: 2-4, 2B, BB, .274/.295/.452 SS Max Acosta: 3-4, 2 2B, .353/.421/.515
Four Crawdads combined for a six-hit Education Day shutout. Undrafted Seth Clark made his high-A debut. The 23-year-old allowed ten runners and struck out nine in eight innings for Down East. It’s early, but Larson Kindreich’s control has been a revelation. He’s walked four of 51 batters (7%), a rate less than half of 2022.
Lo-A: High Desert 15, at Lancaster (WAS) 9 High Desert: 12 hits, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 10 walks, 12 strikeouts Record: 12-10, 1.5 GB
SP Leandro Lopez: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 2 SO, 73 P / 36 S, 4.50 ERA RP Florencio Serrano: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.18 ERA RP Alberto Mota, fka Jeferson Espinal: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RF Jojo Blackmon: 2-4, 2B, 2 BB, SB (5), .204/.350/.429 DH Tucker Mitchell: 1-4, 2B, BB, HBP, SB (2), .378/.491/.511 C Ian Moller: 2-4, HR (2), BB, .241/.339/.426
On a warm Antelope Valley evening with the wind gusting to center at 24 MPH, Ian Moller hit a three-run homer and RBI single in the same inning.
Okay, this game did not take place in California or involve now-defunct High Desert or Lancaster, but with 24 runs scored, I thought I’d have a little fun with the recap. Moller truly provided those highlights of Down East’s nine-run 3rd.
Anthony Gutierrez and Gleider Figuero singled twice, and Yosy Galan and Cam Cauley reached safely twice.
A late highlight was backup OF Jeferson Espinal being entrusted to hold a six-run lead in the 9th. Now in his 5th pro season, Espinal had never pitched professionally, so I was a little dumbfounded to see a steady 94 MPH fastball. I was especially dumbfounded to see Espinal shake off the catcher after his fifth straight fastball and then deliver an 80 MPH curve with solid depth.
As it turns out, I was watching the 2023 debut of Alberto Mota, a genuine pitcher wearing the same #14 as Espinal (and if in fact Espinal wasn’t active, Mota might have been wearing Espinal’s actual jersey.) Fredericksburg’s announcer correctly identified Mota, but I had the sound down at first, and both the screen graphic and MiLB.com listed Espinal as the pitcher. The 20-year-old Mota fanned 43 and walked 18 in 31.1 innings between rookie league and Down East last year.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Jonathan Hernandez allowed four runs and fanned nine in seven innings for Down East. His 37 strikeouts for the season led the organization and his league.
Reliever Dominic Leone opted out of his minor league deal. He’s pitched well but apparently not well enough to force a 40 move. OF JP Martinez is on the IL.
AA: Frisco 11, at Midland (OAK) 2 Frisco: 15 hits, 8 walks, 13 strikeouts Opponent: 6 hits, 9 walks, 7 strikeouts Record: 12-10, tied for first
SP Grant Wolfram: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 33 P / 18 S, 0.90 ERA RP Wyatt Sparks: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Theo McDowell: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 5.40 ERA SS Luisangel Acuna: 2-6, 2B, .320/.367/.440 2B Thomas Saggese: 4-6, SB (3), .271/.333/.376 3B Jax Biggers: 3-5, 2 SB (3), .250/.431/.500 1B Josh Sale: 2-4, HR (1), .160/.300/.320
Righty Wyatt Sparks pitched for the first time since July 2021 following Tommy John surgery. He also pitched for the first time in AA. Now 23, Texas drafted him in 2018’s 23rd round. Fortunately, Sparks was good to go, as spot-starter Grant Wolfram had to be pulled after 33 pitches in the 1st. Low-A Down East’s opening week rotation in 2021 was Owen White, Sparks, Dane Acker (also recovering from TJ), TK Roby, Nick Krauth, and Mason Englert.
Joining Sparks in Frisco is lefty Juan Mejia, while righty Nick Krauth has jumped to AAA.
SP Josh Stephan: 4 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 4 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 82 P / 47 S, 2.05 ERA RP Spencer Mraz: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 1.86 ERA CF Daniel Mateo: 2-4, 3B, BB, 2 SB (6), .261/.274/.435 SS Max Acosta: 1-3, 2 BB, 2 SB (8), .328/.403/.469 DH Geisel Cepeda: 2-4, BB, .234/.357/.298
17 baserunners, five steals, five runs? Hickory lost three runners on the bases and stranded four more at third.
Mark Parker interviewed Kumar Rocker at length. I was happy to see him mention an emphasis on changeups in spring training as well as a curve and sinker (although evidence in games has been fairly limited to date). Ben Spanier at Baseball Prospectus noticed a little cut to his fastball in his most recent start ($ link). Rocker’s fastball/slider combo is too good for high-A, but overwhelming hitters with those pitches alone is of limited utility.
Lo-A: Down East 3, at Fredericksburg (WAS) 4 Down East: 9 hits, 2 walks, 14 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 11-10, 1.5 GB
SP Luis Ramirez: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 74 P / 46 S, 2.35 ERA RP Joseph Montalvo: 4.2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 3.06 ERA C Ian Moller: 1-2, 2 BB, .220/.316/.360 LF Jojo Blackmon: 3-4, 3B, .178/.315/.400
Down East scored twice off 2022 45th-overall pick and Oklahoma alum Jake Bennett and led the game from the 2nd inning until the final pitch. A softly lined single to left-center scored the tying and winning runs off Jackson Kelley. Kelley also balked in a run in the 8th and committed another balk before competing that inning. He had cruised through April, a little wild but nearly impossible to hit (7 IP, 2 H, 5 BB, 12 SO). Kelley uses an adjustable side-arm slot to deliver weirdly bending stuff in a 71-83 MPH range. I suppose he offers a fastball, slider, and curve, but categorizing him might be a pointless task. I’ve seen him clocked as high as 89 MPH, but nothing approached that last night.
Starter Luis Ramirez’s fastball sat 92-93 with some sink plus with a slider and plenty of changes around 84-85. He sells the change well. Joseph Montalvo, who grabbed some attention for a scoreless six innings last week, offered a 91-93 fastball with rise and run, a low-80s slider, and a mid-80s change. In a way, Montalvo has better command than control, able to move around the fastball and slider with uncommon effectiveness for a low-A 20-year-old, but simply throwing strikes is an occasional problem.
Ramirez and Kelley were selected last year in the seventh and 12th rounds, respectively. Montalvo was 2021’s 20th and final draft choice.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Down East and Buies Creek (now known as Fayetteville) combined for nine homers that were the impetus for every run in Down East’s 15-3 victory. 3B Charles Leblanc improved to .310/.349/.520 with a double and homer. Leblanc made the Majors with Miami last year and batted credibly (.263/.323/.404) but was designated for assignment and unclaimed in January.
