As you know, Texas recalled Josh Jung. He was terrific last night, but purely in terms of game performance at Round Rock, his return was hasty. While his strikeout rate was a reasonable 20%, he was very swing-happy, chasing 51% of pitches out of the zone, nearly double the league average. He walked once in 40 PA. He did homer twice… in Las Vegas. One would have left any park, the other maybe just a few. Of course, that’s only part of the equation. Time in the cage and a mental reset could be just as important. Notably, he spent 19 days on optional assignment, one shy of what triggers less than a full year of MLB service time. In his case, though, one more day wouldn’t matter much (barring future options) because he had two years plus 27 days entering the season. He would need to spend about seven weeks in the minors for Texas to claim another year of control.
The Rangers also signed top pick Gavin Fien. I’ll deal with that later. Oh, they also signed Carl Edwards Jr. to a minor deal, twelve years to the days after trading him. But now…
Top-30 Prospect Review
For this exercise, I’m using MLB Pipeline’s rankings because they’re not paywalled and available for anyone to see. Other publications sometimes have sharply differing opinions, and while I’m not much for numerical rankings myself, my thoughts entering the season often diverged as well. (Note the MLB list is different now; my list is from March.)
Keep in mind that most prospects don’t pan out, so a surplus of “down” rankings is almost inevitable. An up or down rating doesn’t necessarily correspond to a change in ranking; it’s just the change in my offseason impression.
1. SS/3B Sebastian Walcott (MLB No. 16)
Rating: even
He’s actually jumped from 16th to fourth in MLB’s top-overall rankings, but during the offseason many evaluators had written to the effect of “we might be undervaluing him and are prepared to bump.” Until last week, he’d endured a lengthy period of non-existent power offset by still-solid OBP. He’s not having the type of season that would bestow an Opening Day spot next March like Elvis Andrus, but he’s been fine.
2. RHP Kumar Rocker (MLB No. 43)
Rating: even
What a career. Vandy, the Mets, indy ball, his shocking selection by the Rangers, an initially inscrutable delivery, Tommy John, emergence of a 100 MPH heater and absolutely deathly slider now transformed and/or less used. Not every start has been a treat, and some of the underlying metrics are alarming, but he’s shown the possibility of becoming a rotation fixture.
As an aside, even though he sports a 5.82 ERA at present, I think the Ranger have to be happy with their decision. Recall the names under discussion at the time such as Brooks Lee, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green and Kevin Parada, all of whom would have been justified at the spot. Brooks has achieved a very busy utility role (including more shortstop than I envisioned) but isn’t hitting much. Johnson is still a quality prospect but not befitting where drafted. Parada, a college pick, is still trying to escape AA. Green, an early favorite to be taken 1-1, has been shipped to the complex and is in danger of washing out.
3. RHP Jack Leiter
Rating: up slightly
Leiter receives a higher grade than Rocker because of how I felt about him as a starting pitcher in March: unenthused. I had persevered through three topsy-turvy seasons, but as I listened to a third straight troublesome Spring start on the way home from Surprise, I thought “okay, this just isn’t going to work.” Stuff ratings don’t matter when the ball is outside or in the cheap seats and the pitch count has reached 60 in the 3rd. Instead, Leiter has made it work and has actually been reliable, after a fashion. He’s at least cleared the 3rd in every start, and about half his appearances have been of high quality. There’s plenty of blue (bad) in his Statcast chart, but at present he’s the type who can be happily relied on for 30 regular-season starts, if not a postseason start. In terms of opposing results, last year’s fastball was one of baseball’s worst, 11 runs below average all by itself in just 35 innings. In 2025, the four-seamer is league-average, and the new sinker six runs above. A remarkable improvement.
4. C Malcolm Moore
Rating: down slightly
Arguably unfair, as Moore suffered a broken finger that sidelined him for two months, but in the full year since he was picked, we just haven’t learned much. One worrying stat from his final year at Stanford was a .233 average on balls in play. That appeared fluky based on the underlying metrics, but in 228 professional trips to the plate, his BABIP is just .240 compared to the 2024-2025 league average of .303. Also, while catcher defense is impossible to measure from a distance, opposing runners have been busier and more successful against him than the league average and Hub City’s other two catchers. He did start well before the injury and has seven weeks to reclaim that form.
5. RHP Winston Santos
Rating: down slightly
After a terrific spring, Santos was skipped a week in Frisco and then IL’ed with a stress reaction in his back. Prior to the draft, the #5 ranking was fair, probably low with the subsequent graduations of Leiter and rocker, but I’d like to see him back on the mound.
6. RHP Emiliano Teodo
Rating: down
Teodo arguably pitched well enough to make the club in March, and after I watched two early Round Rock appearances, I wondered how many more chances I’d get. Since then: two IL stints, inconsistent velocity, wildly inconsistent control. Teodo hasn’t had an ordinary season since 2022. He very well could reappear as if the recent troubles never existed, but it’s hard to have any confidence right now. On the other hand, I’m not downgrading him for the shift from starting to relief, because the former always seemed unlikely.
7. RHP Alejandro Rosario
Rating: down slightly
I’d rank him higher than seventh – somebody has to fill out the 2-6 spots – and the injury was obviously known at the time of his ranking, so why a “down slightly” grade for him but not Izack Tiger or Jose Corniell? Mild uneasiness, I guess. Recall that Rosario was promoted to AA Frisco at the end of August but shut down without taking the mound. Then he faced a lengthy gap between diagnosis and surgery. We’re looking at no fewer than 20 months between real-game outings.
8. OF Alejandro Osuna
Rating: up
Osuna was in high-A 13 months ago, so he’s had quite the ride. He hasn’t hit much in the Majors so far, but his youth and the underlying metrics hint at improvement.
9. SS Yolfran Castillo
Rating: even
Castillo impressed me enough in March that I’d hoped for an assignment to Hickory. Perhaps rash on my part, but in any case, he stayed behind at the complex, where at least statistically the season has been a disappointment. He’s finding more power, but the contact is down, and the walk and strikeout rates have diverged sharply. I’m keeping him “even” because I’m going off very limited observations and don’t want to hang my hat on an Arizona stat line.
10. OF Dylan Dreiling
Rating: down slightly
With the exception of the now-departed Keith Jones, nearly every Hub City hitter has been a snooze. Sorry, but it’s true. The concept of this gig is to convey information, context and analysis you couldn’t find for yourself in a few seconds of scanning the boxes, and let me tell you, 2025 has been a challenge at times. Dreiling has walked plenty, hit eight homers and stolen 11 bases, but the sum is a line of .219/.312/.361. He has shifted from a wide, crouched stance to much more upright, so perhaps he’s adjusting to that.
11. OF Paulino Santana
Rating: even
See Castillo, Yolfran. Santana has grown into some power but is otherwise having an ordinary season statistically, but I’m not going to fret this early. The rookie season ends soon, and I’ll be interested to see how many youngsters receive an intro to full-season ball. Roster limits prevent Texas from putting the whole team on a flight to Charlotte, but hopefully a few will pop up.
12. RHP Jose Corniell
Rating: up slightly
Corniel made his post-TJ return to real games at the beginning of the month. Last Sunday he made his AA debut, delivering two scoreless, hitless innings with a four-pitch mix topped by fastball reaching 97. No reason to be anything but pleased.
13. LHP Kohl Drake
Rating: up slightly
Texas’s 11th-round pick from three years ago is a legitimate back-of-rotation candidate in AAA. Not a bad piece of business, that. Drake works upstairs with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and down with a curve, change and slider, a formula that has produced a 33% K rate in 2025. Opponents are hitting .292/.346/.438 in three AAA starts, but that line is cluttered with low-speed hits.
14. 1B/OF Abimelec Ortiz
Rating: down
Ortiz salvaged last year’s dismal start with a terrific finish that reminded of his breakout 2023. This year’s start wasn’t as slow, but that’s faint encouragement. Like Dreiling, Ortiz has some individually appealing figures including plenty of walks and a 20-homer pace, but he holds a bland line for a bat-or-bust prospect: .235/.341/.419, up significantly after a week in Amarillo and a strong weekend against the league’s worst team. He needs to be giving Texas League pitchers nightmares.
15. 2B/1B Justin Foscue
Rating: down
Entering the season, one could justify a ranking anywhere from around 10th to off the board entirely. For years, Texas’s roster moves have yelled “we have no spot for you unless you really, really hit,” and while he could probably hit in Triple A well into his 30s, his attempts against MLB pitching haven’t worked out at all. What he needs is a couple hundred plate appearances for the White Sox or Miami or Pittsburgh. Actually, needed, prior to his current age of 26 years, four months. In this organization, I think his time is at hand.
16. OF Yeremi Cabrera
Rating: even
Not for the first time among Texas prospects, the jump from the complex to tougher pitching and pitcher-friendlier parks has absconded with much of his power. He’s retained his batting eye and is walking plenty while capably manning center. #16 feels too high, but he’s accomplished enough to join Hub City next season.
17. OF Braylin Morel
Rating: down slightly
Morel was (to my knowledge) injured for a while, so I didn’t see him in Surprise, and he missed the first 17 games at the complex. He’s repeating the level as a 19-year-old, spending much of his time as a DH and performing demonstrably worse in all respects. Only down “slightly” because of the dubiousness of low-level stats and lack of information, but the available information isn’t comforting.
18. OF Anthony Gutierrez
Rating: down slightly
I wouldn’t have ranked him this high in the first place, so “down slightly” instead of simply “down.” With the important caveat that he’s still just 20 and has time, Gutierrez has been the (note: at this point, please pound your desk or the person next to you on the stressed syllables) EXACT SAME HITTER for three seasons despite a radical swing overhaul after ’23 seemingly designed to unleash power. Here’s his statistical ranges during 2023-2025:
Average: .241-.259
Isolated Power: .063-.079
BB+HBP: 9%-10%
SO%: 21.8%-22.2% (!!!)
He can reach Frisco this way and fill a “we need a guy” role in Round Rock, but beyond that, he’s going to have to take steps forward.
19. IF/OF Cameron Cauley
Rating: up slightly
The AA line isn’t electrifying (.248/.319/.406), and of course the bat will determine whether and how often you’ll see him on tv, but Cauley has the MLB tools for a utility role and is headed the right direction. Contact is a worry, but he has surprising pop for his frame, can play multiple up-the-middle positions capably and can run not just fast but intelligently.
20. OF Elorky Rodriguez
Rating: even
Not much to say at this point. He’s hitting well as a 17-year-old I the Dominican Republic.
21. LHP Mitch Bratt
Rating: up
Bratt has somehow improved on his already masterful control and owns the widest gap between strikeout and walk rates in the Texas League. Middling fastball velocity and lack of a one killer pitch limits his upside, but he mixes a broad repertoire very well. AAA beckons.
22. RHP Josh Stephan
Rating: down slightly
I wasn’t down on Stephan after 2024 but safely assumed he’d be left off the 40 and unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft. He can throw strikes all day, and his miss rate is above-average, yet his strikeout rate is ordinary at best. Despite an uptick in fastball velocity, he remains hittable in AA, and 2024’s reverse platoon split has not only persisted but worsened. Righties are hitting .325/.364/.552 with a homer every 16 plate appearances.
23. RHP Marc Church
Rating: down
Relievers, y’all. I’ve seen him enough over the years to have a firmer grasp of his situation than most players, but as of now, I’m grasping air. His road became bumpy once he reached AAA, and for a long while, I didn’t trust his fastball or consistency. Church deservedly earned a bullpen spot in Surprise, but his old issues reappeared immediately, and injuries have limited him to 11 innings across all levels.
24. RHP Paul Bonzagni
Rating: down
Suffered an elbow injury in April.
25. RHP Skylar Hales
Rating: even
I struggled between even and down slightly. He fanned a third of Texas League opponents and displayed good control, earning a promotion to AAA (which has gone poorly, but it’s early). An ongoing concern is the bad days, which every reliever has, but his tend to result in multiple runs more often than many of his peers, thus the 5.26 ERA in Frisco despite strong peripherals. Hales hasn’t done anything wrong, per se, but he arrived in Round Rock without an advantage over any number of would-be MLB relievers.
26. RHP Izack Tiger
Rating: even
Recovering from elbow surgery.
27. RHP David Hagaman
Rating: up slightly
Injured when drafted, Hagaman has returned to action and is stationed at low-A Hickory. Results have been spotty, but he’s throwing just fine and is set up well for an ordinary offseason and full year of work in 2026.
28. RHP Caden Scarborough
Rating: up
I was excited but cautious following my in-person view of Scarbrough at the Spring Breakout game. He featured a mid-90s fastball and 81-84 slider that flashed promise, although immediate results were nothing special. Unsurprisingly, he’s missed plenty of bats, but I never expected this long-limbed youngster with a noisy delivery to display even average control in 2025, much less what he’s actually achieved (9.2% BB/HBP vs league average of 13.6%). As good a season as could possibly be hoped for.
29. RHP Kolton Curtis
Rating: down slightly
His ERA jump from 2.85 ERA to 5.77 this year is mostly bad luck, but he’s walking or hitting 17% of opposing batters, up from last year. Even in 2025, that won’t do for a rotation role. He’s just 21 and has time.
30. RHP David Davalillo
Rating: up
Davalillo’s already strong walk and strikeout rates have improved even as he’s climbed the ladder. He’s recently added a cutter to his arsenal. One item to watch is his fastball velocity. I noticed a drop of 1-2 MPH toward the end of his AA debut in San Antonio, and the same occurred in his most recent start before the break. So far, his late-inning results haven’t suffered at all, and he’s treated Texas League batters with casual disdain.
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