From Huntsville, AL, maybe the weirdest box score you’ll ever see. Visiting Chattanooga was no-hit but won 7-5, scoring everything with two out in the final inning. Walk, walk, pop out, walk, strikeout, bases-loaded walk, three-run error, HBP, HBP, bases-loaded HBP, bases-loaded walk, run-scoring wild pitch, HBP, strikeout.
AAA: Round Rock 4, at Sugar Land (HOU) 0 Round Rock: 5 hits, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts Opponent: 2 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 3-3
SP Cody Bradford: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 82 P / 57 S, 0.00 ERA RP Chase Lee: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 3.86 ERA SS Jonathan Ornelas: 1-2, 2 BB 2B Justin Foscue: 1-3, 2B RF Elier Hernandez: 2-2, HR (1), BBCody Bradford no-hit Sugar Land through five. Bradford’s fastball again had a median velocity just under 90 MPH. He missed eight bats, six via changeup. Justin Foscue has a hit. After a hard out, Foscue angled a pitch at a relatively modest 81 MPH for a double. He would double again in the nightcap. Foscue leads the team with ten hard-hit balls (>= 95 MPH) and has a minuscule 5% swinging strike rate. Elier Hernandez homered in both games.
AAA: Round Rock 3, at Sugar Land (HOU) 2 Round Rock: 7 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 4-3
SP Kyle Cody: 2.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 60 P / 61 S, 6.35 ERA C Sam Huff: 1-4, HR (1) 2B Justin Foscue: 1-2, 2B, BB, SB (1) CF Elier Hernandez: 1-2, HR (2), BB
Kyle Cody, starting pitcher? 60 pitches are the most he’s thrown since September 2020. He offered a low-90s sinker, mid-80s change and a heavy dose of 78-83 sliders. Plenty of strikes including 11 swinging, but also a fair number of hard hits.
SP TK Roby: 3.2 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 3 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 77 P / 45 S, 7.36 ERA RP Marc Church: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA LF Evan Carter: 1-4, BB DH Luisangel Acuna: 2-5, SB (1) 3B Thomas Saggese: 2-3, 2B, BB
TK Roby surrendered two homers in his AA debut. Long balls were a weak spot last year in high-A, as he allowed 19 and a .446 slugging percentage in 22 starts.
AA: rain
Makeups during the week of April 25-30 in Winton-Salem.
AA: rain
They’ll make it up in June.
Today’s Starters AAA: Kent AA: off Hi-A: off Lo-A: off
Five Years Ago Yesterday In his high-A debut, Mike Matuella lasted five innings with two runs allowed and four strikeouts. The fastball sat in the mid 90s. Baseball America had dropped him from 19th to 30th among Texas prospects over the winter, but after a noteworthy spring, his status might have peaked around this time.
SP Owen White: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 48 P / 31 S, 0.00 ERA RP Nick Krauth: 4 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 6.75 ERA RP John Matthews: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA LF Dustin Harris: 1-3, 3B, BB
Owen White was solid, if not dazzling, in a fastball-heavy performance. I believe he was slightly behind his compatriots in Surprise, so he lasted only three innings last night. Amarillo never seriously threatened him, although their ability to foul off multiple pitches extended White to 24 pitches for just four batters in the 3rd. The Poodles strung together a walk and three two-out hits off Nick Krauth for all the runs. Krauth is an undrafted signing out of Connecticut.
Dustin Harris lined a triple to right-center. Luisangel Acuna (1-4) was tagged out stretching for a triple in the 8th.
AA: Down East 10, Kannapolis (CHW) 1 Down East: 13 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 2 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts Record: 1-1
SP Aidan Curry: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 63 P / 37 S, 0.00 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Dylan McCarty: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Adrian Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RF Yeison Morrobel: 1-3, 2 BB C Tucker Mitchell: 4-4, 2B, HBP 2B Danyer Cueva: 3-5, 3B, SB (1)
20-year-old Aidan Curry would have been drafted if not for the covid-shortened five-round draft in 2020. He signed out of high school anyway and is in the low-A rotation after two seasons at the complex marked by improving control and a flashy 32% strikeout rate. Side-arming Jackson Kelley (2022, 12th round) had a stylish pro debut. Holding Kannapolis hitless over the final four innings were DJ McCarty (not the 2020 4th-rounder, that’s fellow Woodie Dylan MacLean) and Adrian Rodriguez, who was recently mentioned as a prospect “standing out to scouts” in a recent baseball America article ($ link) with his upper-90s heat and mid-80s breaker. Texas drafted him in 2019’s 39th round.
2021 14th-round catcher Tucker Mitchell had a day. Entering the season, Mitchell had flashed some power (five homers in 50 games) but not much contact in two pro seasons.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Two games were rained out, and two were played in atypical cold. Eerie. Frisco’s Wes Benjamin fanned eight in four innings. He’s currently a fixture in the rotation of Korea’s KT Wiz. He spoke of the move to Korea in January.
Regarding yesterday’s post: The player acquired for catcher Brett Nicholas was reliever Emmanuel Clase. 18 months later, Texas would trade him and OF Delino DeShields Jr. to Cleveland for SP Corey Kluber, who would throw only one inning for the Rangers.
Clase was announced in early May, but I can’t find mention of him in my reports until the announcement of short-season Spokane’s roster in mid-June. My vague recollection is a slow buildup of “good grief, did you see who the Rangers got for Nicholas” chatter after he joined. Clase already had three years of pro experience and appeared statistically as a swing man with middling peripherals. That would change.
Per local reports, Jake Odorizzi will miss the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery. The man he was acquired for, LHP Kolby Allard, is on the 60-day Injured List with an oblique strain.
AAA: Round Rock 2, at Sugar Land (HOU) 5 Round Rock: 5 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 10 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts Record: 2-3
SP Jake Latz: 2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 37 P / 23 S, 2.70 ERA RP Cole Winn: 3.1 IP, 7 H (1 HR), 5 R, 5 BB, 4 SO, 7.71 ERA RP Fernery Ozuna: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 6.75 ERA LF JP Martinez: 2-3, HR (1), BB, SB (2) DH Blaine Crim: 1-3, BB
This was the completion of Wednesday’s rain-shortened contest, after which the regularly scheduled game was postponed until Saturday.
Originally listed as the nightcap starter, Cole Winn instead belatedly relieved Jake Latz. Results were similar to last Friday’s start: a decent number of whiffs (10) undermined by a low overall strike rate. Curiously, the pitch that caught plenty of zone was the change. Sugar Land swung at eight, put six in play, and collected a single, two doubles, and a homer.
JP Martinez knocked Round Rock’s first homer. Now 27, Martinez’s star has dimmed over the years, and his AAA intro last year was a mixed bag (.199/.319/.404), but he’s Round Rock’s most potent hitter in the early going (.615/.688/1.077).
Justin Foscue is one of five AAA players without a hit in at least 15 plate appearances. His hard-hit rate is a respectable 46%, and he lasered a pitch directly to the waiting CF at 105 MPH.
Another of those five is Davis Wendzel (0-15, walk, HBP).
SP Jack Leiter: 4.1 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 4 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 79 P / 44 S, 8.31 ERA RP Grant Anderson: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Alex Speas: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Theo McDowell: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Evan Carter: 2-5, SB (1) LF Dustin Harris: 2-3, BB 1B Trevor Hauver: 1-4, HR (1) RF Kellen Strahm: 2-3, BB C Scott Kapers: 2-3, 3B
Jack Leiter allowed only three hits, but two landed in the grass. He issued a walk in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th innings. The fastball velocity was fine, mid-to-upper 90s, and despite the walks he might have been slightly better about catching glove-side corners. His slider has improved since joining the organization but seemingly at the expense of his curve, which rarely displays the mean-spiritedness of his Vandy days. He missed eight bats.
20-year-old Jordan Lawlar, chosen four spots after Leiter in the 2021 draft, reached on a walk and two-run homer against Leiter.
Evan Carter had an opposite-field triple reduced to a single and out because he skipped over second base.
Trevor Hauver hit a grand slam. He began to see action at first late last year. Given what he brings to the outfield defensively, a partial or total switch doesn’t add much pressure to his bat. He’ll need to hit his way to the Majors regardless.
Winston Santos commenced 2023 with his best professional start, retiring his first 14 batters and another five straight after a lone single. 20 years old for a a few more days, Santos features a mid-90s fastball, decent change, and a slider that appears to play more on deception than raw quality at present. He can throw strikes all day (67% rate in 2022), setting him apart from most at the lower levels, although his BB/HBP rate last year ended up a good, not great, 9.3%.
A video posted this morning by Rangers Player Development contains his eight swinging strikes, all heat except a final slider. Do take a look. Per Texas’s official player development Twitter account, Santos’s fastball averaged 95.4.
The Crawdads scored seven in the 2nd to dispense of 26-year-old Kannapolis starter Dylan Burns. Every starter reached safely.
AA: Down East 4, Kannapolis (CHW) 5 Down East: 6 hits, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 7 walks, 9 strikeouts Record: 0-1
SP Brock Porter: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 1 SO, 32 P / 12 S, 13.50 ERA RP Seth Clark: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Jose Corniell: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4 3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-4, 2B
In his professional debut, 19-year-old Brock Porter couldn’t get out of his own way, accumulating 32 pitches in a four-walk 1st that ended his night early. Three of the four walks began with a strike, and two contained 0-2 counts. Porter threw 12 two-strike pitches that resulted in 11 balls and a swinging strike three. Just one more strike in that group gets him to the dugout to gather himself, and perhaps he’s able to last another two innings or so.
Seth Clark, an undrafted free agent out of Georgia State, prevented further damage in the 1st and worked a clean 2nd. Later, Kannapolis would plate three in three innings against 2022 8th-rounder Matt Brosky, also pitching in a real game for the first time. The 23-year-old Brosky pitched for Youngstown State and was among Texas’s less expensive signings.
Anthony Gutierrez singled twice in his full-season debut. He’ll be 18 the entire season. Gleider Figuereo, another name of note and five months older than Gutierrez, doubled and singled.
Today’s Starters AAA: Bradford AA: White Hi-A: Rocker Lo-A: TBA
Five Years Ago Yesterday I’m going to maintain this feature, I think, but recapping 2018 won’t always be pleasurable. The farm was 25 games under .500 in April and dominated by names that largely didn’t work out and don’t resonate much today. Here’s who’s still in the organization from the full-season break-camp rosters: Joe Barlow, Jonathan Hernandez, Brett Martin, Leody Taveras, Sam Huff, Ryan Dorow, Matt Whatley, and Alex Speas. Some of the parent club’s losing seasons in the past six years contained entertaining (if ultimately deceptive) bouts of competitiveness, but 2018’s 67-95 club was limited to a .500 record across May and June.
Nevertheless, today’s account has an interesting item: Texas traded catcher Brett Nicholas to San Diego for a player to be named or cash. Nicholas had spent the winter as Texas’s nominal backup catcher but lost that role in Spring Training and was outrighted.
The player to be named became quite the name. Remember who?
No game report from yesterday, as Round Rock was suspended by rain. That contest will resume today followed by a regularly scheduled affair shortened to seven innings.
After a week of only Triple A games, the minor league season begins in full today. I maintain a collection of spreadsheets here: 40-man roster, rosters for al minor league levels, players removed from the org, Rule 5 eligibility (which I’ll need to update), and more. I have added a list of top-10 prospects for other teams that could play against Texas’s minor league clubs in 2023. I update the lists frequently but not instantaneously.
I also provide updates on Twitter. If you’re not on Twitter by now, you’re probably committed to that, and the current owner is certainly doing all he can to degrade the experience. But if you’d like my additional observations during the games, I’m there for you.
Today’s Expected Starters: AAA Cole Winn AA Jack Leiter Hi-A Winston Santos Lo-A Brock Porter
That’s a strong quartet. Santos’s only appearance in a top-30 list I’ve seen is at #24 by Jamey Newberg at The Athletic, but from what I heard about Santos in Surprise, Jamey will have some company down the road. Baseball America awarded Santos as having the organization’s best fastball.
Owen White (AA) and Kumar Rocker (Hi-A) will start Friday.
Reliever Joe Barlow is active in Round Rock. Reliever Grant Anderson was transferred to AA after one appearance in Round Rock. That seems a move dictated by roster limits rather than any reflection on Anderson.
REV Entertainment is investigating the possibility of a multi-purpose entertainment venue including a baseball stadium in suburban Wilmington, NC. You might have heard of REV, as they operate Globe Life Stadium and the surrounding venues, and most of REV’s upper management also serve positions of similar importance in the Rangers organization. Texas owns the low-A Wood Ducks (and high-A Hickory). The agreement with the Kinston at Grainger Stadium runs through 2028, while the Player Development Agreement expires after 2030. REV’s involvement in a baseball-oriented entertainment complex doesn’t categorically have to involve the Rangers’ baseball operations. REV is also moving forward on a facility in Shreveport that could open in 2026, and the baseball tenant has yet to be announced. All affiliated minor league clubs have agreements with their respective MLB clubs through 2030.
At the forefront of my mind is whether A-level baseball will exist after 2030, at least in its present form as a nationwide commercial enterprise as opposed to, say, being folded into the Spring Training complexes.
We will have a new Diamond Pod for you later this afternoon. Links in the signature below.
The best prospects tend to receive aggressive assignments and are young for their levels. If all you know about a player is his age, you actually know quite a lot. Take Texasâs promotions of 20-years-olds Luisangel Acuna and Evan Carter to AA last summer. Texas is telling you theyâre well-regarded without you needing confirmation from me or MLB Pipeline or Baseball America. One shouldnât get carried away with age, though. Of course, players drafted out of college will be older, so dismissing them for being 23 by the time they reach high-A would be ridiculous. However, the older the player, the higher the expectations. (Incidentally, that a good many college players donât handle A-level ball reinforces just how hard the pro game is.) Catchers tend to take more time, as do many pitchers.
The Rangers donât promote as aggressively as a decade ago. Promotions feel more player-tailored and less driven by organizational culture.
In the Majors, batting average isnât completely useless, but it matters far less than on-base percentage and slugging. In the minors, I still like to keep an eye on it. Putting the bat on the ball with frequency and authority is what gets players noticed and moves them up the ladder.
Hereâs two fictional players with 500 plate appearances. Both have a .360 OBP and .440 slugging percentage:
Same OBP, same slugging percentage, very different hitters. Player A is kind of a cut-rate Joey Gallo, batting .238 with huge number of walks and good-but-not-elite power. Player B batted .319 but doesnât walk much or offer much more than doubles power. There arenât many Player B type nowadays. Luis Arraez last year. Elvis Andrus in 2016. Knowing the batting average in addition to OBP and slugging can be surprisingly informative. That said, even in the minors, OBP and slugging are much more useful.
These stats mean the least at lower levels and gain importance as players advance. They also matter more to offense-oriented positions. Except at the extreme margin and probably not even then, a first basemen cannot compensate for weak hitting with outstanding defense. He has to hit.
OPS (OBP + slugging) is an ugly mishmash of a statistic that nevertheless usually does a acceptable job of describing a hitter, but Iâm more inclined to mention the entire stat line.
Walks (Hitters)
The goal of a hitter is to reach base safely, so the ability to lay off iffy pitches can define a career. Walks create hitting situations with runners on base, wear down the pitcher, and mitigate inevitable slumps. In the Aaron Zavala example from yesterday, he drew eight walks during his season-starting 0-for-16 slump, producing a .333 OBP. Would that all slumps were so productive. Zavala gave his teammates eight opportunities to hit with a runner on base, and he scored three runs in those four hitless games.
Even for Zavala, walks are a means, not an end. I do worry about players who rely too heavily on walks, which is easier to do at the lower levels where control is often absent. Selectivity is a great attribute. Passivity, not so much. Eventually, the hitter will rise to a level at which most pitchers not only have control but a semblance of command, and the hitter will have to adjust.
Strikeouts (Hitters)
To some extent, we can ignore hittersâ strikeouts. What really matters is how they perform when they donât. Not to be flip, but strikeouts for hitters donât matter until they do. At some point, they reach a level that forces a herculean batting average on contact just to get by. Last year, I gamed out how Adolis Garcia could achieve a .300 OBP with so many strikeouts. As I tweeted: âLetâs say he can manage a 5% BB+HBP rate (well below league average) and a 30% K rate (well above, even in 2021). That means he needs to bat .263 for a minimum .300 OBP. And with all those Ks, that requires a .376 average on contact, about 50 points above the league average and better than what heâs done in AAA.â
That season, Garcia ended up with a 6% BB+HBP rate and struck out in 31% of his plate appearances, close to my guesses. He also batted .364 when he made contact, roughly the 75% percentile among AL batters with at least 400 plate appearances. So, very good in that respect. And what did that high average on contact get him? A .286 OBP, 9th-worst among that same set of batters. He improved to an even .300 last year despite a slightly lower average on contact, courtesy of more walks and fewer strikeouts.
Some hitters are exceptionally good at avoiding strikeouts, but not particularly to their benefit. Most of the time, weak contact on a marginal pitch isnât any better than a strikeout.
ERA
I do list ERA when recapping pitchers. Much of the time, itâs a handy stat, but itâs not the end-all and sometimes is lying to you. Letâs take two pitchers in low-A in 2021:
Player A: 4.28 ERA, 43% SO rate, 7% BB rate, .272 opposing OBP, 16.5 pitches per inning Player B: 3.68 ERA, 33% SO rate, 23% BB rate, 429 opposing OBP, 23.5 pitches per inning
Player B had the better ERA, but Iâd pick Player A in a critical situation without question. B had a terrific strikeout rate but a bunch of innings marred by walks (mostly stranded, luckily) and elevated pitch counts. Pitcher A combined good control with an otherworldly strikeout rate, but the batters that reached were much more likely to get home. Usually, situational performance (such as runners in scoring position) tends to even out in the long run.
Sometimes a single terrible outing can wipe out a relieverâs ERA. My favorite example is John Smoltz back in 2002. He allowed eight runs in 0.2 innings in early April and needed three months of quality outings (including 37 saves!) just to drag his ERA below 4.00.
So, youâll occasionally read something from me like âheâs pitched better [or worse] than his ERA would suggest.â If Players A and B continue to pitch as they have, Player A is far more likely to have the lower ERA eventually.
Homers, Walks, Strikeouts (Pitchers)
These are better indicators than ERA, which is often tied to luck on balls in play and how well relievers strand runners left behind.
Homers are trickier to analyze. More fly balls equal more homers, of course, but HR rates can bounce around crazily from year to year for no other reason than variance. Walk and strikeout rates tend to stabilize more quickly.
Walk and HBP rate are up across the minors post-2020, particularly at the lower levels. A combined BB/HBP of 10%, slightly problematic a dozen years ago, is now better than average. My rule of thumb was that a BB/HBP rate of 15% was untenable for a would-be starting pitcher, because heâd run into trouble too often and force too many bullpen innings. Last year, among the 50 busiest starters in the low-A Carolina League, nearly as many had a BB/HBP rate of at least 15% (10) as below 10% (12). More pitchers seem to be able to abide the higher walk rate because theyâre darn near unhittable otherwise, and they arenât being asked to face as many batters. Still, as they climb the ladder, those walks are more likely to cause trouble.
Strikeout have risen so much that I constantly have to remind myself what constitutes an acceptable rate. In 2007, my first year on the job, the best team in the low-A Midwest League (which contained Texas-affiliated Clinton) had a strikeout rate of 21.3%. Last year, the worst team in the low-A Carolina League (including Down East) had a rate of 22.3%. Down Eastâs 27.2% rate (10.5 per 9 IP) was fourth in a 12-team league.
The gap between starters and relievers has shrunk. Again comparing Texasâs low-A leagues from past to present, the 50 busiest starters had a strikeout rate of 19% in 2007 and 25% in 2022. The corresponding figures for the 50 relievers finishing the most games were 22% and 26%.
HBPs are kind of an afterthought in typical stat-watching, but theyâve risen greatly in recent years, and some pitchers are plunk-prone enough to seriously degrade their performance.
I tend to refer to these stats in rates per batter faced rather than per nine innings. Per-nine accounting can be skewed by the number of runners allowed. If two pitchers strike out a batter per inning, they obviously are striking out an identical amount per nine innings, but if one is allowing one runner per inning and the other two, the stingier pitcher has a 25% strikeout rate compared to the other guyâs 20%. That 5% is meaningful.
Opposing Slash Stats
The opposing batting line relates closely to the pitcherâs core peripherals. I mention it often and think itâs interesting. I wish it would gain more traction, but Iâll be the lonely standard-bearer.
Opponents batted ..216/.288/.342 against Cole Ragans in the upper minors last year. Now, heâs a Major Leaguer. Cole Winnâs opposing line was .265/.379/.429. The slugging percentage was about 20 points below the league average, so even with his troubles, he wasnât getting crushed. The problem is the OBP, inflated by a 16% BB/HBP rate. Did I mention that walks can cause more trouble at the upper levels?
Fielding
Fielding is trickiest to evaluate from an outsiderâs perspective. Fielding percentage rarely tells the whole story.
For example, over the course of a season, letâs pretend two infielders share shortstop duties equally. On their first 400 grounders, theyâre identical statistically. But then on their next 20 grounders apiece, Shortstop 1 never touches a single one, but Shortstop 2 reaches all of them and turns 15 into outs and throws 5 into the stands, allowing those hitters to reach second. Shortstop 2 will have a worse fielding percentage, but he also turned 15 more balls into outs. Would you rather an opposing batter reach first safely 20 times, or reach second 5 times but get put out the other 15 times? Shortstop 2 is far more effective despite making more errors.
Even with no stats, you can learn plenty simply from where someone plays. For example, in 2021, Frisco had a quartet of Bubba Thompson, JP Martinez, Josh Stowers and Steele Walker for last seasonâs first 80 games. Who played CF the most? Thompson with 40 starts, followed by Martinez with 28. Walker made about three-quarters of his corner outfield starts in right, while Stowers worked each corner equally. The guy getting the most starts in center might not necessarily be the best on his team in that role, but at the least heâs who the front office wants to see there the most. (In this case, Thompson actually was the superior defender.)
Statcast
Statcast data became available for Texasâs AAA league last year.
In the past few years, my means of tracking pitch speeds in Round Rock has upgraded from asking or eavesdropping behind scouts to checking the stadium gun on the scoreboard (which was inconsistent pre-Hawkeye/Trackman) to checking my computer or phone. Hallelujah. I also get horizontal and vertical movement and pitch categorizations (which arenât infallible, especially with new and unusual pitchers). Did the starter emphasize a changeup and ditch his curve last night? Did he hold his velocity into the 6th? Is a hitter seeing a particular type of pitch more often? Now I have that info even if I couldn’t attend or follow the game.
Exit velocity and launch angles are also available. For my use, I created nine categories of velo/angle combinations. The first four are hitter-favorable and encompass solid contact: very likely homer, possible homer, likely double, and likely single. The fifth I call âlucky,â contact of below-average velocity hit at the right angle to fall between the infielders and outfielders, so gentle liners, flares, bloops.
Then, four pitcher-friendly groups: U = âunlucky,â airborne contact at above-average velocity that usually ends up in a glove G = âgrounder,â not a great chance at a hit unless absolutely demolished (and I fit those in the âSâ category) SO = âsoft out,â airborne but below-average velocity contact that doesnât produce much P = âpop,â not strictly infield pop-ups but any ball hit too high to leave the park; these are almost always outs, rarely more productive than a strikeout.
I categorize every ball in play based on what it typically produced in the Majors, not in AAA. Plenty of balls that become extra-base hits in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League may just be long outs in a typical MLB park.
Is a player hitting the ball hard but too low or high? Are his homers more frequent in the ânearly certainâ or âborderlineâ group? Did a pitcher who allowed five runs get nickled-and-dimed? All are questions I can analyze with this data.
Some quick thoughts about last year and the future based on this data:
Josh Jungâs walk/strikeout rate cratered in AAA, but his contact quality was fine.
Josh Smith didnât hit especially hard but had a knack for a launch angle that produced plenty of hits.
Sam Huffâs rates of exceptionally hard contact and almost-sure-thing homer categorizations were an order of magnitude above everyone else.
As Iâd mentioned, Winn caught my eye in Surprise and on Opening Day with a new pitch. I guessed cutter on my own, but itâs still nice to check the data and confirm its speed/movement and my belief that he didnât throw it in 2022. Per the data (and a knowledgeable source), Winn is also generating more sweep on his slider.
Zak Kentâs AAA debut was terrific (1.67 ERA, oppo line .181/.278/.277) but his batted ball data told a different story. 12 contacted balls (one of every six in play) were in the possible or probable homer group, but only two actually left the yard. Opponents batted only .433 and slugged .667 on balls in a favorable group, compared to .679 with a 1.249 slugging percentage for Round Rock as a whole. In other words, given that type of contact, he was lucky.
Conversely, reliever Daniel Robert suppressed hard contact (23% of balls in play categorized in a hitter-friendly group versus 36% for the team) but defeated himself with walks. In his six multi-walk appearances, he allowed 16 runs. In eight appearances with one walk: eight runs. In 23 appearances with no walks: 5 runs.
These are developmental leagues. Rosters arenât constructed and games arenât managed to win, at least not as a primary goal. Good prospects arenât going to be benched if they perform poorly. Does the prospect quality of a system correlate to its performance in the minors? Hereâs a chart of every teamâs organizational ranking in 2022 per Baseball America and its full-season winning percentage:
In some years Iâve seen a hint of a pattern. If you connect the dots for teams 12 through 25, youâll get a decent approximation of Cassiopeia, but thatâs not what weâre looking for. There was only the faintest of connections between farm ranking and winning percentage in 2022. By regression, one higher spot in the rankings is worth about 0.7 wins out of 552 scheduled games, and the confidence level is pitifully low. That said, over the years, the quality of Texasâs system has correlated reasonably well to its record. (Texas is the red dot.)
One reason the correlation is low is that not all rankings are created equal. An organization stacked with top-100 prospects will receive high marks even if depth is lacking, but that missing depth could result in a weaker record. Also, think about where the prospects will play. Texasâs top prospect is Josh Jung by most accounts, and he wonât spend a minute in the minors this season unless on rehab assignment or if he woefully underperforms for Texas.
Some organizations emphasize winning more than others. For my outsiderâs perspective, my concern isnât about winning as much as excessive losing. In 2021 White Sox-affiliated Kannapolis lost its first ten, then 16 of the next 20, and then dropped to 46 games under .500 until an 8-1 finish. That just doesnât seem conducive to a positive development environment.
Starters
The six-games-a-week schedule strongly encourages a six-man rotation, which Texas had already utilized at most levels for several years under the old format with fewer days off. At the upper levels in 2022, the Rangers would intermittently deploy just five. For viewing purposes, the advantage is that certain pitchers tend to start on a certain day on the week, and you could more easily schedule a park visit around that start if inclined.
In 2022, the median length of a start (excepting bullpen days) by a Texas minor leaguer was 4.2 innings, two outs greater than 2021, when the post-covid environment fostered more caution. Even with this limited workload, Texas wants its starters to get their innings, so pitchers will often be allowed to press through situations that might get an MLB starter pulled. What will get a starter pulled early is excessive pitches. If the inningâs count has crept into the mid-20s with no end in sight, the bullpen will be active. Once it surpasses 30, the pitcher (especially if younger) could be yanked unless the batter heâs facing makes the final out. Round Rockâs Robert Dugger provided an example on Sunday by leaving with 34 pitches in 0.2 innings.
Surprisingly, Texasâs AAA starters did not tend to work longer on average than the lower levels in 2022, although that might be influenced by the difficulties of frequent starters Cole Winn and AJ Alexy. All four levels averaged 4.2-5.0 innings per start, and the difference in pitches between AAA and low-A was only seven per game. All four levels had exactly six starts that extended beyond six innings.
Some organizations have more fluid roles. Houstonâs low-A squad used 21 starters. Ten of them started at least five games, and all ten also completed at least two games as a reliever.
Relievers
Minor league relievers tend to pitch on a schedule rather than in situational roles. Even in AAA, nominally the final training ground for the Majors, relievers usually pitch on prescribed days.
Pitching on consecutive days, already a rarity below AAA, has become exceptionally rare even in AAA. Among Round Rockâs eight busiest relievers, I found two occasions of back-to-back appearances. The first was by Nick Snyder, whoâd been optioned two weeks prior and was probably near the front of the line for a recall at the time. The other was by Demarcus Evans. A good many pitchers are scheduled to pitch twice a week, so once every three games.
In the old days (circa 2018), pitching on consecutive days was a âtellâ that a reliever might be headed for Arlington soon. Now, the relatively rigid AAA workloads and expansion of up-and-down relievers may have made that idea obsolete. AAA is still the final audition, but relief usage there operates less like the Majors than it ever has. AAA usage has also changed much more than low-A over the past decade:
Texas AAA in 2022: 40 relievers, 3.7 per game Texas AAA in 2012: 22 relievers, 2.4 per game
Texas Low-A in 2022: 30 relievers, 2.4 per game Texas Low-A in 2012: 20 relievers, 2.0 per game
46 Texas minor leaguers saved a full-season game last year. Jesus Tinoco led with 13. Only five pitchers had more than five. Teams donât have closers, or to the extent they do, they tend to place trustworthiness above ceiling. In the last 15 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None of them has ever subsequently saved a Major League game.
Sometimes in critical situations, managers have leeway to use relievers more traditionally. In 2021, Frisco leaned heavily on 2021 draftee Chase Lee and Daniel Robert down the stretch. In fact, Robert made his first-ever no-rest appearance on the seasonsâ final day. Last year, Nick Starr finished three of Friscoâs four playoff games.
Batting Orders, Position Player Starts
They arenât necessarily optimized for run production and often donât align with the relative qualities of the prospects. Donât worry about them.
Blaine Crim led the organization with 132 games played of a possible 147. Only four hitters played more than 110. Most regulars will receive a day off during the week.
Walks and Strikeouts
Both increase as you descend the organizational ladders. The combined BB/HBP rate in MLB last year was 9.0%. The minors ranged from 11.5% in AAA to 15.3% in the Dominican Republic.
Walks exploded in low-A in 2021, partly because of an unscheduled year off and because of the automated umpiring used in one Low-A league. In low-A history, the ten highest team BB/HBP marks and 20 of the top 21 have occurred in the past two years. Similarly, nine of the top ten strikeout percentages and 16 of the top 20 are from 2021-2022.
Strikeouts are at historic levels. Not that long ago, almost any pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate was noteworthy. In 2022, that would be below average in Low-A, which had a 25.5% SO rate. In 2021, the low-A San Jose Giants had a team rate of 31.5%.
Errors and âMistakesâ
The number of miscues that give the opposition free runners or bases increases greatly at the lower levels.
The 2022 numbers are nearly identical, so I didnât bother with a new chart.
Likewise, fielding mistakes that donât appear in the box score increase down the ladder. For example, fielderâs choices that donât result in outs, throws to home that miss the cutoff and allow the trail runner to advance.
Running
With MLB adopting the runner-friendly rules tested in the minors, youâve probably got a better idea of how they affect the game. The Rangers have been especially adept at exploiting these rules. In 2021, Down East set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. Last year, the Woodies stole 308, setting the low-A record and falling five shy of the most by any minor league team since at least 1990. Nevertheless, Down Eastâs success rate was actually below average. The Rangers have largely been willing to let youngsters try what they will and learn through failure.
Field and League Context
Hereâs the park-adjusted league averages for Texasâs full-season affiliates in 2022:
Round Rock: 5.8 runs per game, .261/.346/.451 slash line, 0.97 park factor Frisco: 5.6 runs, .251/.350/.419, 1.00 park factor Hickory: 5.1 runs, .252/.339/.404, 1.00 park factor Down East: 4.6 runs, .234/.327/.351, 0.97 park factor
A .400 slugging percentage in Round Rock is much different than .400 at Down East.
Round Rock is pitcher-friendly relative to most of its peers, but the Pacific Coast League is so hitter-oriented as a whole that even Express hittersâ stats have to be viewed with a little cynicism. Frisco was neutral last year while division mates Amarillo (6.3 runs per team per game) and San Antonio (5.2) were on opposite ends of the spectrum.
Luck
The likelihood of a .250 batter going hitless in 16 consecutive at-bats is small: almost exactly one in 100. Spread that to 36 hitters* (nine per Texasâs four full-season teams) and the likelihood that someone starts the season 0-for-16 jumps to nearly one in three, still uncommon but not rare. Aaron Zavala, one of Texasâs most highly regarded batters, did just that in 2022, starting 0-for-16 (with eight walks) in his first four games.
Now, take under consideration the entire season. The likelihood of someone having an even longer hitless stretch is virtually assured. In 2021, Luisangel Acuna had an 0-for-30 stretch (with five walks). Justin Foscue is currently 0-for-11 to start the season despite five balls hit in excess of 95 MPH. Statistical variance in baseball is much higher than most people think. Donât place too much emphasis on the short run, whether good or bad.
* Texas isnât going to stick with the same 36 minor league hitters game after game, but Iâm trying to make the math easier.
Promotions
Promotions and demotions arenât made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone elseâs spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are sometimes complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than youâd like because Texas has to sort through all these issues.
Report Tone
Even in a deep system, most of Texasâs minor leaguers arenât going to reach MLB or make much impact if they do. Texas has 26 Major Leaguers and 200+ minor leaguers. The cold math turns most of them into âfailures.â
They are not failures. Theyâre exceptional athletes in an industry with a limited number of jobs. If youâre the 2,000th best accountant in the country, youâre doing great, plus you can start your own business if you want. The 2,000th professional baseball player is in Double A, and he canât start his own league to compete against MLB. Also, we can argue about the relative entertainment quality of the current high-strikeout era, but the players themselves have never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with repertoires that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago.
So, I want to be honest about a playerâs likelihood of reaching the Majors, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but Iâll cover anyone having a great day.
SP Robert Dugger: 0.2 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 7 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 34 P / 18 S, 67.50 ERA RP Grant Anderson: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Kyle Cody: 3 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 6.00 ERA RP Daniel Robert: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA C Sam Huff: 2-3, BB 1B Blaine Crim: 1-3, BB
Newcomer Robert Dugger retired only two of nine batters. Dugger was out of contract from early October until last Wednesday. He has appeared in 27 MLB games, and I’m sure he was working out diligently on his own, but he appears to have completely missed Spring Training.
Jonathan Ornelas collected his first AAA hit on an opposite-field liner. Justin Foscue connected at speeds of 88, 96, 98, and 106, and was hitless, again. The only player hitting harder so far is Yoshi Tsutsugo, and he’s also swung and missed only twice in three games, so I wouldn’t fret his 0-11 start.
Round Rock was outhomered 8-0 in the series and hit only one ball that I’d classify as a potential homer: Sam Huff’s deep flyout in the 9th on Friday (102.5 MPH, a slightly-too-high 40 degrees).
Texas signed OF Rafael Ortega. The 31-year-old former Rockie, Ranger*, Cardinal, Angel, Padre, Marlin, Brave, Cub, and Yankee has a career line of .250/.322/.361 including .241/.331/.358 in a career-high 118 games with the Cubs in 2022. With apologies to Clint Frazier, who’s trying to reclaim prior form, Ortega immediately becomes the leader on the minor league OF depth chart. Texas sent IF Dio Arias to Frisco. At present, Round Rock lacks a reserve who can play 2B or SS, and the 3B reserves are Tsutsugo (not ideal) and Blaine Crim (even less so).
* As you doubtlessly recall, Ortega was a Ranger for a few weeks during the 2013-2014 offseason, claimed and then lost on waivers.
The Pacific Coast League did eliminate its divisions to accommodate the new split-season format.
SP Cody Bradford: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 73 P / 48 S, 0.00 ERA RP Chase Lee: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 SO RP Jake Latz: 1.1 IP, 0 R, 3 SO RP Yerry Rodriguez: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 SO LF Clint Frazier: 2-3, BB CF JP Martinez: 1-3, HBP DH Elier Hernandez: 2-4, 2B
In his AAA debut, Cody Bradford continued directly from his outstanding 2022 conclusion, holding Albuquerque scoreless over 5.1 innings on just 73 pitches. Well, not quite directly: Bradford began with a walk and hit batter. Best as I can tell, during 2022 Bradford never put consecutive batters on base via walk and/or HBP during 2022. Bradford emerged unscathed. Two runners reached on an error and lined single with two out in the 2nd, but Bradford again prevented a run. He would retire ten of 12 thereafter, surrendering a walk and soft single.
Bradford offers a four-seam fastball, slider, and change. The slider runs from 80 to 87. Call it a cutter at its fastest if you like. (Statcast calls the slowest ones curves, but I’m not going there.) It doesn’t break much horizontally at any speed, instead dropping more at the lower velocities. The change is a traditional fader.
And the fastball. Bradford’s median fastball velocity was 89.1 and peaked at 90.6. It doesn’t have much horizontal movement, and it’s not going to set any spin records. All that said, it still doesn’t drop much despite the spin, permitting him to work up successfully. He commands it very well, and batters don’t know what’s coming out of his hand. He threw 35 fastballs, getting seven misses and eight called strikes. The opposition put only four in play, collecting two singles.
Successful pitchers with that velocity tend to be much older. Greinke, Wainwright, etc. Younger examples are rare. Marco Gonzalez’s average fastball dipped below 90 when he was 27. Bradford would have been better regarded a dozen years ago and more likely to have been added to the 40-man roster. In a way, I put him in a group with reliever Ben Rowen, Alex Claudio, and current prospect Chase Lee, all of whom were or are somewhat “unscoutable” in terms of projecting MLB success. Their repertoires don’t fit the modern-day mold, but they dominate at every level, so you keep promoting them and see what happens. Bradford might make the Rangers see what happens in Arlington.
Chase Lee allowed a run on one hard and one soft single. Batters tended not to swing much against Lee last year in AAA. Minor league batters, especially the younger ones, often bail on first pitches with high movement. Lee’s sinker (90-92) is essentially a reverse slider, and his slider (80-83) has a ton of sweep, so there’s plenty of bailing going on. I think hitters are annoyed at his style and would prefer to wait for a walk, but Lee can throw plenty of strikes even with all that movement. On the downside, Lee’s swinging strike rate is low, and on occasion his vertical placement flattens into a small, predictable, and very hittable range.
It’s just one outing, but Jake Latz threw two pitches harder than anything delivered during 2022, topping at an even 97, and his average of 95.5 was nearly three ticks higher. (Latz did spend a good potion of 2022 in the rotation, accounting for some of the difference.) He mixed in an also-effective 85-87 change and a few curves.
Round Rock placed some timely hits and took advantage of ABQ starter King Kauffman’s poor control. Jonathan Ornelas and Justin Foscue played up the middle again. Both walked and are still seeking their first AAA hits.
Assigned to Round Rock’s 60-day Injured List are IF Ryan Dorow (shoulder), RHP Scott Engler (last year’s TJ surgery), and Kyle Funkhouser (last year’s shoulder injury, I assume). Joining the ordinary IL but in no better shape are pitchers Avery Weems (TJ in February) and Tim Brennan. I don’t have direct knowledge on Brennan, but he exited a Frisco game late last year with what looked like a serious elbow problem. Offseason acquisition Danny Duffy is also on the IL.
SP Cole Winn: 3.2 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 3 R, 3 BB, 6 SO, 80 P / 45 S, 7.36 ERA RP Daniel Robert: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA SS Jonathan Ornelas: 0-3, 2 BB LF Clint Frazier: 2-5 1B Yoshi Tsutsugo: 2-4, 2B RF Elier Hernandez: 1-2, BB, SB CF JP Martinez: 2-4, SB
Cole Winn’s first three batters reminded of 2022: four-pitch walk to open the game, homer, hard single. He then retired nine of the next ten batters, five via strikeout. Leading off the 4th, 3B Aaron Schunk fouled off three two-strike pitches before homering to left at a robust 107.6 MPH. Winn allowed another walk, his third, struck out his sixth and final batter, and was removed after 80 pitches. He’d needed 24 pitches to work through four batters in the 4th.
In spurts, he looked his best since last April, effectively deploying a high fastball, slider, and change. Velocity was fine; the fastball averaged 93.6 and topped at 95.4. He missed 12 bats, usually with the fastball, and fanned six of 17 (35%). Conversely, his strike rate was below average (57%). While he didn’t give the appearance of battling himself like on occasion in 2022, he nevertheless missed enough pitches to end his night shy of four innings.
Winn threw only four curves, three of them attempts at a first-pitch called strike (one worked).
Winn also appears to be throwing a cutter. Out in Surprise, I noticed a couple of odd-looking pitches from him around 90 MPH, not a velocity he hits. He did the same last night at 89 and 90 MPH, and both pitches pushed glove-side slightly. Statcast recorded them as four-seam fastballs, but I think not. I checked the data from last year, and he didn’t offer anything in that velo/movement range. The last three pitches of his night were swinging strikes, and the first two appeared to be cutters followed by a slider.
The relief was indistinct. John King retired only two of seven batters as Winn’s replacement. Best was Daniel Robert, topping out at 98.3 MPH and working around a walk and single to retire four batters without allowing a run.
Newcomers Jonathan Ornelas and Justin Foscue (0-4) are looking for their first AA hits. Foscue lined sharply to the awaiting second basemen and was robbed on a fine play by Schunk, who nabbed a deep grounder along the third base line and whirled to nab Foscue at first. (Also: Foscue isn’t speedy.)
Cody Bradford starts tonight.
Rangers Farm Report: Games of Friday 31 March Box Scores
SP Cole Winn: 3.2 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 3 R, 3 BB, 6 SO, 80 P / 45 S, 7.36 ERA RP Daniel Robert: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA SS Jonathan Ornelas: 0-3, 2 BB LF Clint Frazier: 2-5 1B Yoshi Tsutsugo: 2-4, 2B RF Elier Hernandez: 1-2, BB, SB CF JP Martinez: 2-4, SB
Cole Winn’s first three batters reminded of 2022: four-pitch walk to open the game, homer, hard single. He then retired nine of the next ten batters, five via strikeout. Leading off the 4th, 3B Aaron Schunk fouled off three two-strike pitches before homering to left at a robust 107.6 MPH. Winn allowed another walk, his third, struck out his sixth and final batter, and was removed after 80 pitches. He’d needed 24 pitches to work through four batters in the 4th.
In spurts, he looked his best since last April, effectively deploying a high fastball, slider, and change. Velocity was fine; the fastball averaged 93.6 and topped at 95.4. He missed 12 bats, usually with the fastball, and fanned six of 17 (35%). Conversely, his strike rate was below average (57%). While he didn’t give the appearance of battling himself like on occasion in 2022, he nevertheless missed enough pitches to end his night shy of four innings.
Winn threw only four curves, three of them attempts at a first-pitch called strike (one worked).
Winn also appears to be throwing a cutter. Out in Surprise, I noticed a couple of odd-looking pitches from him around 90 MPH, not a velocity he hits. He did the same last night at 89 and 90 MPH, and both pitches pushed glove-side slightly. Statcast recorded them as four-seam fastballs, but I think not. I checked the data from last year, and he didn’t offer anything in that velo/movement range. The last three pitches of his night were swinging strikes, and the first two appeared to be cutters followed by a slider.
The relief was indistinct. John King retired only two of seven batters as Winn’s replacement. Best was Daniel Robert, topping out at 98.3 MPH and working around a walk and single to retire four batters without allowing a run.
Newcomers Jonathan Ornelas and Justin Foscue (0-4) are looking for their first AA hits. Foscue lined sharply to the awaiting second basemen and was robbed on a fine play by Schunk, who nabbed a deep grounder along the third base line and whirled to nab Foscue at first. (Also: Foscue isn’t speedy.)
Cody Bradford starts tonight.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Beats me. In all my years on the beat, the Texas minor league system had never played a real game in March until last night.
Sweet Smell Of Success (1957) Fat City (1972) Jacob’s Ladder (1990) Morvern Callar (2002) No Time To Die (2021) Cosmopolis (2013) Downhill Racer (1969) Nosferatu (1922) Detour (1945) The Hotel New Hampshire (1982) The Worst Person In The World (2021) Funeral in Berlin (1966) Heaven’s Gate (1980) The Color of Money (1986) Eight Men Out (1988) 24-Hour Party People (2002) Glengarry Glen Ross (1992) One-Eyed Jacks (1961) Andrei Rublev (1966) Night of the Iguana (1964) Up in the Air (2009) The Hot Rock (1972) The Hustler (1961) Glass Onion (2022) Bladerunner 2049 (2017) Do The Right Thing (1989) Fellini Satyricon (1969) Meet John Doe (1941) Performance (1970) Deathtrap (1982) Another Round (2020) Day For Night (1973) The Man Who Would Be King (1975) Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels (1998) The 400 Blows (1959) Network (1976)
