The Rangers are 44-46 despite a positive run differential of 25 runs. A neutral record for that differential would be 48-42. With a league-average offense, meaning 4.09 runs per game instead of the actual 3.78, the potential record would be 51-39. Texas with a league-average offense but including the current level of bad luck would be 47-43. That’s not great, but it’s one game out of the wild card instead of four.
Often, luck manifests in the form of a lopsided record in one-run games, but the Rangers stand at 14-15, which honestly seems about right. Put another way, the current situation doesn’t feel like the result of bad luck. Sad to say, it feels earned.
Regardless, Fangraphs currently projects the worst AL wild card to conclude at 86-76, so the Rangers would need a 42-30 finish to match that.
Box Scores
AAA: wet
To be made up in September. The starting lineup included Josh Jung at third and Rowdy Tellez at DH. The Express have tomorrow off and host Albuquerque during the week leading up to the All-Star break.
AA: Frisco 1, at Arkansas (SEA) 5
Frisco: 6 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 4-8, 3 GB, 42-38 overall
SP Trey Supak: 6 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 76 P / 56 S, 4.48 ERA
LF Keith Jones II: 1-3, BB, .240/.269/.480
Early hit-heavy sequences placed the Travelers ahead 5-0 in the 2nd.
Frisco has three consecutive 2-4 series despite allowing only 4.1 runs per game in that span, second only to Midland. Sebastian Walcott has no extra-base hits in his last 21 games, hitting .218/.319/.218. He had yesterday off.
Hi-A: Hub City 4, Winston-Salem (CHW) 1
Hub City: 5 hits, 7 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 9-6, tied for first, 40-40 overall
SP Jose Gonzalez: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 7 SO, 71 P / 53 S, 2.94 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1.98 ERA
2B Casey Cook: 2-3, 3B, BB, SB (20), .204/.281/.268
RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-3, HR (4), BB, .213/.280/.331
Erik Loomis has four consecutive two-inning outings with four or five strikeouts. His 44% K rate ranks third among 178 South Atlantic League pitchers with at least 20 innings. As you’d expect, he also sports an elite swinging strike rate of 11.7%.
Wait. 11.7% isn’t elite. It’s not even league-average. Missing bats correlates strongly to strikeouts, but Loomis is a ridiculous outlier:
How is this possible? It appears to be a combination of 1) a higher-than-average rate of pitches taken, and 2) a higher-than-average rate of called strikes. It’s bizarre and likely unsustainable, but I’d add that during the four-game stretch I mentioned, in which Loomis has fanned 18 of 27 (67%), his miss rate is a genuinely elite 18%.
Jose Gonzalez was absurdly efficient again.
Weird, accidentally discovered stat: Of the 150 MLB-affiliated minor league teams in the US, only Hub City has not hit a triple on the road.
Lo-A: Hickory 2, Kannapolis (CHW) 9
Hickory: 9 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 9 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 11-4, 0.5 GB, 44-36 overall
SP David Hagaman: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 37 P / 21 S, 7.71 ERA
DH Hector Osorio: 2-4, .253/.399/.364
RF Marcos Torres: 2-4, .243/.328/.388
Hagaman was pulled during a four-run 2nd. He’d only thrown 25 pitches, but coming off Tommy John and with the results being what they were, that apparently was the limit.