Draft
Based on what transpired yesterday, I should have either quintupled the effort on my draft preview or skipped it entirely. The actual picks deviated from expectations immediately when the Nationals selected high school shortstop Eli Willits, and the Angels threw everyone for a loop by taking Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner. Yesterday, I summarized eight players among six mock drafts. Excluding overlaps, I tallied 30 distinct player-selection slots. The number of actual picks that matched? Zero. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, who submitted his mock literally minutes before the first pick (so I didn’t cover it), correctly predicted Texas’s first pick as well as Steele Hall heading to Cincinnati at #9. 17 of the top 27 picks were high school shortstops or college pitchers.
1/12. SS Gavin Fien (Age 18.4, 6’3″, 200)
Ranked #31* by Baseball America, #22 by MLB.com, #12 by ESPN, #34 by FanGraphs, #9 by Baseball Prospectus, #12 by The Athletic
The pride of Temecula, California, Fien was the sixth high school shortstop taken in the first 12 picks. He owns a quick bat, a sharp eye, he doesn’t miss much and already has the swing to turn raw power into results. Fien swings and defends upright and isn’t the most fluid athlete you’ve ever seen. My reaction after about 1.5 seconds of video was “third base, maybe right” but we’ll see. The good news is the arm will play anywhere, and the bat, should it develop as hoped, will play on a corner. He will be given the opportunity to develop as a shortstop. He’s not going to provide value with his speed.
Fien made his name in last summer’s showcases, but his spring was muted, producing some hesitance in his evaluations. I imagine the organizations response to last summer was “we love this guy,” and to his lesser spring, “we can work this out.” Excluding last-minute updates, no mocks I saw had Fien going higher than 15, and he was popular in the late teens.
Texas hadn’t selected a high schooler first since 2018, and the last time that grabbed a high school shortstop in this range was Benji Gil in 1991. Fien is committed to the Texas Longhorns, but I’ll forgive him for spurning my alma mater.
2/52. RHP AJ Russell (Age 21.0, 6’6″, 195)
#37 by BA, #70 by MLB, #67 by ESPN, #68 by FanGraphs, #40 by BP, #71 by The Athletic
Russell was a Tennessee teammate of current Hub City OF Dylan Dreiling (2024 3rd round) and Cal Stark (2024, undrafted). He features a fastball that sits “only” 92-94 but has touched 98 and plays way up thanks to a low release (especially relative to his 6’6″ height), extension and massive movement. A rising power sinker, if you will. In 70 college innings, he struck out 104, a 37% rate. Russell also provides a mid-80s slider and changeup. Results with those pitches haven’t been stellar, but they do offer promise.
About those 70 innings: those aren’t from 2025 alone, they’re his entire three-season output. He missed some time as a freshman, and his 2024 and 2025 were severely shortened by brace surgery. One can read about him and quickly conclude “sounds great, but he’s a reliever,” and that may very well be, but none of the reviews I’ve seen suggest rotation development is a waste of time and are actually more optimistic than I would have expected. In any case, Texas doesn’t shy from injury recovery projects at all.
3/84. SS/RHP Josh Owens (Age 18.5, 6’3″, 185)
#77 by BA, #89 by MLB, #46 by ESPN, #43 by FanGraphs
Owens played in Johnson City, Tennessee, and is committed to Georgia Southern. He’s pointedly listed as a two-way player on the official board, and local reports say he’ll have the opportunity to develop that way. He showed some pop this summer and has the body to grow into more. Commentary on the bat is mixed, with positive reports on the results of his contact but worries about pitch recognition and swing length. Reports are skeptical of his likelihood of staying at short, but he appears to have the arm for third and at least the speed for center.
Most publications gloss over his pitching or ignore it. Baseball America mentioned him touching 94 MPH but in the context of him fitting well at third, and FanGraphs describes an “odd throwing stroke” and “near sidearm slot” (I watched some video and can confirm.)Â He’s definitely a project, hopefully a fun one for both Texas and us. The 3rd is my favorite “roll the dice” round, so in that respect I’m happy.
Destinations of everyone I covered yesterday:
#8 SS Jojo Parker, Toronto
#9 SS Steele Hall, Cincinnati
#14 SS Daniel Pierce, Tampa Bay
#15 RHP Kyson Witherspoon, Boston
#18 SS Kayson Cunningham, Arizona
#19 C/OF Ike Irish, Baltimore
#25 LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, San Diego
#26 RHP Gage Wood, Philadelphia
Texas has selected through the 10th round as I conclude today, but I’ll cover them and the rest tomorrow.
Cade Obermuleler, Texas’s longshot 19th-round selection last year from Iowa, was redrafted 63rd overall by the Phils.
* As a fan, it’s easy to treat various publications’ pre-draft rankings as gospel and grade team’s picks accordingly. After all, they put in the work, and you and I didn’t. Don’t fall into that trap. These publications are valuable, peppered with knowledgeable writers, but they are providing opinions, not facts, about players with huge variance in potential outcomes. Teams have their own opinions, and there are occasions even near the top of the board when one team’s absolutely adored selection is a hard pass for another. I’m not saying you’re obligated to like the Fien pick. Maybe you liked a different prep bat or a college pitcher who’ll advance faster. That’s all fine, but “Baseball America ranked him 31st, so he’s a reach” is itself a bit of a reach.
Futures Game
Whoops. I wrote this up Saturday but neglected to include it Sunday. Sebastian Walcott was 0-1 with a sac fly in yesterday’s Futures Game. He grounded to short at 104 MPH and lofted a two-strike below-the-zone changeup from Marquis Grissom Jr. to center. Stationed at third base, he ably converted two grounders.
Box Scores
AAA: wet
After the break, the Express will hit the road for a week and a half. Sunday was their third home rainout in eight scheduled games, delaying Jon Gray’s second appearance in real action. Also, the rain plus some time off immediately after the demotion has limited Josh Jung to five games in the last 11 days.
Texas released righty Patrick Murphy. A dark-horse contender for an Opening Day spot, Murphy was injured late in Spring Training and missed nearly two months. Upon return, he pitched reasonably well, not missing many bats but generating plenty of grounders. I don’t know if the release was a clause Murphy could trigger, but regardless, I didn’t get the sense he was on the short list for a call-up.
AA: Frisco 9, at Amarillo (ARI) 1
Frisco: 14 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 7-11, 3 GB, 45-41 overall
SP Trey Supak: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 84 P / 54 S, 4.09 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, 2B, .252/.326/.415
1B Abi Ortiz: 4-5, 2B, HR (12), .225/.334/.396
Frisco led entering the 8th inning of all six games at Amarillo but head home with three wins. The offense did manage to shake off the doldrums, admittedly in a favorable environment. During the last two months, Cam Cauley is hitting .274/.348/.464. He’s matched last year’s full-season total of 33 walks in 69 fewer plate appearances while splitting time between short, center and second.
Hi-A: Hub City 3, @ Rome (ATL) 1
Hub City: 6 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 13-8, 1 G up, 44-42 overall
SP Jose Gonzalez: 5 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 79 P / 54 S, 2.73 ERA
RP Erik Loomis: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 1.80 ERA
LF Dylan Dreiling: 1-3, HR (8), .214/.311/.354
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, 2B, .233/.303/.364
Another solid day for Jose Gonzalez. Gonzalez doesn’t feel like he’s been around that long, but he actually signed prior to the July 2 signing date in 2019, so I believe he can become a free agent after the season if not protected on the 40. He didn’t pitch in 2019, missed 2020 along with everyone else, spent 2021 in the Dominican Summer League and all of 2022 and much of 2023 at the complex. Gonzalez doesn’t quite appear to be 40-worthy or the type to be selected in a Rule 5 draft, but he’d be a great guy to keep around if possible. (There’s also a possibility he’s not eligible to leave until after 2026; I’d have to check.)
The Spartanburgers are above .500, but writing about the offense hasn’t been easy. Hub City doesn’t have any active hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or better.
Lo-A: Hickory 2, at Lynchburg (CLE) 11
Hickory: 8 hits, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 15-5, 1.5 G up, 48-37 overall
SP David Hagaman: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 45 P / 36 S, 6.23 ERA
RP Brock Porter: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.49 ERA
Lynchburg scored eight in a 33-minute, three-pitcher, 60-pitch 7th. David Hagaman has a .200/.265/.200 opposing line despite his 6.23 ERA, which resulted from a single bad inning.