Scott Lucas

Donations
Information here.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 4, Sugar Land (HOU) 7
Round Rock: 9 hits, 8 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 15-16, 5.5 GB, 52-53 overall

SP Adrian Sampson: 4 IP, 9 H (2 HR), 7 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 99 P / 66 S, 6.23 ERA
RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Owen White: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 5.79 ERA
2B Justin Foscue: 0-2, 3 BB, .267/.446/.444
3B Dustin Harris: 2-4, BB, .282/.366/.395

Owen White’s second relief appearance this week proceeded much better. His four-seamer averaged 96.1, well above his standard rate, but with no loss of control.

Robby Ahlstrom made his AAA debut, featuring a low-to-mid-80s slider, 91-94 FB, upper-70s curves and even a couple of changes. Ahlstrom was drafted by the Yankees in 2021 but never pitched in anything pinstripe-adjacent before being traded with pitcher Albert Abreu for catcher Jose Trevino.

AA: Frisco 4, @ San Antonio (SDP) 2
Frisco: 9 hits, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Record: 20-12, , 64-37 overall

SP Winston Santos: 6 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 81 P / 55 S, 6.64 ERA
RP Ricky DeVito: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 3.63 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.80 ERA
CF Alejandro Osuna: 2-4, 2B, BB, .302/.398/.531
3B Cody Freeman: 2-4, HR (13), BB, .274/.336/.467

In AA, Winston Santos has reverted to the proneness for homers and hit batters that afflicted his first run through low-A in 2023. That year, he surrendered 19 long balls and plunked 16 in 99 innings, taking the shine off a splendid walk rate. Returning to Hickory, he amazingly reduced both rates by roughly three quarters. In just 20.1 AA innings, however, seven balls have become souvenirs, and he’s hit five in addition to a very reasonable five walks. It’s far from a crisis, as Santos was probably beginning 2025 in Frisco regardless of how these recent outings transpired, and but it’s worth watching.

Nevertheless, Frisco improved to an absurd 15-2 against San Antonio. Both homers off Santos were solos, the HBP and only other hit amounted to naught. Cody Freeman’s 13th homer tied his previous high in 2022, and he already has his most doubles with 23.

Hi-A: Hickory 1, @ Asheville (HOU) 0
Hickory: 5 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 19-16, 2.5 GB, 47-54 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 SO, 84 P / 58 S, 2.78 ERA
RP Jacob Maton: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.98 ERA
DH Cam Cauley: 1-4, HR (9), .245/.295/.426

Kohl Drake matched a career-best ten strikeouts absent a single walk. He’s an interesting story, spending what was in spirit his junior season (technically redshirt sophomore because of covid) at Walters State Community College, 22 by the time Texas called his name in the 11th round of 2022. He received a $175,000 bonus, $50,000 of which counted against the bonus cap. Last year at the complex and Down East was indistinct; he was fairly hittable. This year has been a very different story. The fastball is reaching 95 instead of 92, it moves, and he adds a curve, slider, and change.

Cam Cauley’s solo homer was enough for a rare 1-0 score in the Sally League’s hitter-friendliest park.

Lo-A: Down East 7, @ Augusta (ATL) 0
Down East: 13 hits, 2 walks, 14 strikeouts
Opponent: 2 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Record: 19-15, 2.5 GB, 54-45 overall

SP David Davalillo: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 83 P / 63 S, 1.79 ERA
RP Justin Sanchez: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 5.14 ERA
LF Jose De Jesus: 4-5
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-4, 2B, HR (12), BB, .275/.327/.470
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-3, 2B, BB, SB (3)
1B Pablo Guerrero: 2-4, 2B

The hits keep coming for the recent rookie additions. De Jesus, Cabrera and Guerrero combined for eight of the team’s 13. Not one to be upstaged, “veteran” shortstop Echedry Vargas thumped his 12th homer and 16th double.

Augusta has a dreadful offense (.199/.298/.282, 3.3 runs per game), and the Woodies are making sure the Green Jackets don’t get any cute ideas.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Brennan
AA: Teodo
Hi-A: Montalvo
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
In his organization debut, Kolby Allard fanned seven of his first 11 opponents and completed five scoreless innings for AAA Nashville. Allard had been acquired for reliever Chris Martin. Allard is back in the bigs as a spot starter and long reliever for the Phils. He’d endured such a rough patch that Philadelphia dropped him to AA Reading for a while. Allard and Tyler Phillips pitching for the NL’s best team in 2024 was conceivable in 2019 but not any other time from early 2021 until last week when they became teammates.

Donations
Thanks again to those who’ve donated. For those who are still interested, here’s the link to various payment methods.

Also, the Rangers Player Development twitter account has video of Mitch Bratt (AA) and Izack Tiger (high-A) in their league debuts.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, Sugar Land (HOU) 11
Round Rock: 11 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 7 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 15-15, 5.5 GB, 52-52 overall

SP Bryan Chi: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 HBP, 2 SO, 60 P / 34 S, 16.50 ERA
RP Matt Whatley: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA
2B Justin Foscue: 3-4, BB, SB (4), .273/.440/.455
SS Jonathan Ornelas: 2-4, BB, .247/.321/.342

Matt Whatley made his pro mound debut. Peaking at 49 MPH with a delivery best described at “throwing to an eight-year-old,” Whatley retired three of four batters. Statcast doesn’t know what to do with these pitches, but with up to 14″ of horizontal break, well over 100″ of drop, and a spin rate of around 1,300, I’m going to call them splinkers (splitter/sinker).

Bryan Chi is a just-in-case for whom AA is the upper limit of his ability right now, so don’t hold last night against him. Listed as the starter throughout the day was Jack Leiter.

AA: Frisco 2, @ San Antonio (SDP) 5
Frisco: 4 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 19-12, tied for first, 63-37 overall

SP Kumar Rocker: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 43 P / 32 S, 0.00 ERA

Kumar Rocker again breezed through a Double A lineup, and again I was struck by how fluid he looked compared to any iteration of his previous deliveries. He delivered two and four-seam fastballs, a power slider, and a slightly slower breaker that you can call a curve or a slider variant. I did not see a change.

Swinging strikes by inning: 0, 0, 6, 7.

Players ejected: 0.

Hi-A: Hickory 6, @ Asheville (HOU) 10
Hickory: 11 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 18-16, 4 GB, 46-54 overall

SP DJ McCarty: 4 IP, 10 H (2 HR), 8 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 82 P / 55 S, 4.39 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, .245/.295/.418
3B Gleider Figuereo: 3-5, 2B, .200/.245/.400
2B Theo Hardy: 1-3, 2B, BB

Theo Hardy is the first 2024 signing to receive a full-season assignment. The undrafted 22-year-old played at San Jose State, batting .271/.392/.472 as a senior. He’s played mostly at short in college and summer leagues.

Asheville is a dismal place for pitchers to practice their trade, as DJ McCarty has learned.

Lo-A: Down East 4, @ Augusta (ATL) 0
Down East: 9 hits, 0 walks, 15 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Record: 18-15, 3.5 GB, 53-45 overall

SP Brayan Mendoza: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 73 P / 46 S, 2.41 ERA
RP Thomas Ireland: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-4, 2 2B, .272/.322/.456
2B Chandler Pollard: 2-4, HR (2), .247/.324/.329

Eight straight. This week, Down East has scored six and four runs in games in which the offense had zero walks and 15 strikeouts. Echedry Vargas drove in three with doubles in the 3rd and 5th. Thomas Ireland spent the last month of 2023 in Kinston but returned to Arizona for the entire rookie-level season. Now back in low-A, the 2021 13th-rounder posted a better outing than any out west.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Sampson
AA: Santos
Hi-A: Drake
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas purchased the contract of reliever Emmanuel Clase. Nick Solak clubbed his sixth homer in 15 games for AAA Nashville. Leody Taveras reached three times to extend his on-base streak to 15 games. Bubba Thompson hit a grand slam.

Donations
Many thanks to those who’ve donated so far. For those who didn’t see the message for how to donate, here it is.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 5, Sugar Land (HOU) 2
Round Rock: 8 hits, 7 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 15-14, 4.5 GB, 52-51 overall

SP Aidan Anderson: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 45 P / 30 S, 3.19 ERA
RP Blake Taylor: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 4.46 ERA
RP Walter Pennington: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
2B Justin Foscue: 2-2, HR (4), 2 BB, .250/.423/.440
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, 2B, .264/.374/.414

Round Rock brought in trade acquisition Walker Pennington with the bases loaded and one out in the 6th. His first pitch in the Texas organization was a slider for a called strike, challenged, upheld. He would strike out Zach Dezenzo with a 90 MPH cutter, then fostered an easy comebacker from Jacob Melton. Pennington walked the leadoff batter the next inning but retired the rest.

AA: Frisco 1, @ San Antonio (SDP) 0
Frisco: 10 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 2 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 19-11, tied for first, 63-36 overall

SP Mitch Bratt: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 76 P / 47 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Reid Birlingmair: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 4.09 ERA
RP Robby Ahlstrom: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.85 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 0 SO, 1.93 ERA
DH Cody Freeman: 2-4, 2B, .275/.336/.463
RF Luis Mieses: 3-4, 2B

Mitch Bratt excelled in his AA debut. San Antonio’s only at-bat with a runner in scoring position was a strikeout in the 1st after a walk and stolen bases.

In the 6th, after a close play at first ruled a single for Luis Mieses, the sides began an argument that slowly escalated to a bench-clearing not-quite-brawl in the midst of Daniel Mateo’s plate appearance. Ejected were Frisco manager Carlos Cardoza, pitching coach Jon Goebel, development coach Kawika Emsley-Pai, and shortstop Alex De Goti, along with San Antonio manager, Luke Montz, shortstop Ripken Reyes, and CF Connor Hollis. If Goebel is ever as mad at you as he was at the umps last night, move and change your name.

Mateo’s four-pitch strikeout lasted 26 minutes.

Hi-A: Hickory 3, @ Asheville (HOU) 1
Hickory: 8 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 18-15, 3.5 GB, 46-53 overall

SP Izack Tiger: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 72 P / 47 S, 0.00 ERA
RP DJ Peters: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 5.79 ERA
3B Sebastian Walcott: 2-4, 2B, HR (10), .254/.346/.439
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, HR (1)

2023 7th-rounder Izack Tiger replaced Mitch Bratt in the rotation and matched Bratt’s five scoreless innings in his high-A debut.

Sebastian Walcott is batting .500/.500/1.500 in August. Let’s see if he can keep it up.

When Texas released or moved several hitters from Hickory a few days ago, I checked the Down East roster for potential promotions but didn’t see any obvious choices. Arturo Disla occurred to me, and I thought he was doing well (.281/.359/.438, 11 homers in 87 games) but not exactly wasting his time in low-A. He did in fact receive the upgrade and hit his first high-A homer last night. The undrafted Disla is 23 and very much the “have bat, will travel” prospect.

Lo-A: Down East 6, @ Augusta (ATL) 4
Down East: 12 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 17-15, 3.5 GB, 52-45 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 40 P / 28 S, 2.91 ERA
RP Willian Bormie: 4 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 4 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 3.60 ERA
RP Bryan Magdaleno: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1.76 ERA
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-5, 2B, .269/.320/.448
DH Beycker Barroso: 2-5, HR (4), .254/.379/.493
C Julian Brock: 2-4, HR (4), BB, .222/.304/.331

Walks have troubled 20-year-old Kolton Curtis at times but not last night. Newcomers Jose De Jesus and Yeremi Cabrera singled.

The Woodies have won seven straight. They won’t play either team above them in the standings (Fredericksburg, Carolina) but have a favorable schedule down the stretch. Only six of 33 games are against teams with a winning record at present.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Leiter
AA: Rocker
Hi-A: McCarty
Lo-A: TBA (Davalillo maybe)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas called up OF Scott Heineman for his MLB debut. He singled twice. It’s not well-remembered because of the overall 78-84 record, but the Rangers were above .500 for much of the season and would soon reach 58-54 before an extended slump put them below .500 for the duration.

Donations
Following Texas’s 1-5 road trip and my prospect review with more downs than ups, it’s time to announce the annual request for donations. (I was not a marketing major in college.)  Any amount — $5, $10, $20, whatever suits you — is greatly appreciated. I will say that the average in recent years has been around $25. And if the amount is zero, that’s okay, too. There’s no obligation, and I don’t tailor the level of coverage to what is donated. I just keep doing what I do and am glad people keep reading.

I do hope you enjoy the reports, even though 2024 hasn’t proceeded as hoped. Fortunately, the Rangers have the fortune of playing in an unexpectedly weak division and still have a chance. Friend of the Report Eleanor Czajka made a point that this year’s version of the Rangers is playing to last year’s original expectations, improved on 2022 but not really a good club. We got a title contender and winner a year early.

If you would like to participate, you have several options:
1. Via Paypal to scottrlucas@gmail.com(Note! scottrlucas with an “r” in the middle, not scottlucas)
2. Via venmo to @scottrlucas (same thing, needs an “r”)
3. Check or money order to Scott Lucas, PO Box 300453, Austin, TX 78703
4. If you prefer another method, email me (minors@scottlucas.com)

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 4, Sugar Land (HOU) 7
Round Rock: 5 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 14-14, 5.5 GB, 51-51 overall

SP Tyler Mahle: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 74 P / 48 S, 1.93 ERA
LF Trevor Hauver: 2-3, 2B, HR (), .204/.323/.330

Mahle exceeded his previous high of 55 pitches by 19. He might have lasted into the 6th if not for a shaky 2nd, during which he allowed a walk and two doubles while throwing enough pitches to have Matt Festa warming hastily. Also, Sugar Land simply didn’t swing at low and glove-side fastballs. They watched 28 out of 40 four-seamers, and a ridiculous 61% of those were called strikes. (The league-average strike rate on taken fastballs is 29%.)

Owen White has pitched as a reliever a handful of times in the minors, but always under peculiar circumstances like quasi-rehab outings (the 2022 AA playoffs, likely the peak of his prospect status), following other rehabbers, or coming in to pitch a regular workload in a game suspended by rain. Last night, he pitched in relief, full stop. We’ll see if this becomes his new role or is simply a pause. Unfortunately, results were lacking. In 1.2 innings, he walked two batters and allowed three runs. He surrendered two moon shots in the 8th, one of which was just soft enough to land shy of the wall, but the second did not. Irrespective of immediate results, as for the potential role change, I have mixed feelings. My hope was he could expand on improve on his repertoire during this protracted down period, and to an extent, I think he has. He’s throwing six pitches, none fewer than 6% of the time, and none rate badly enough that I’m thinking “why are you throwing that.” The downside is that relief often entails cutting back to the most effective two or three pitches, and in White’s case, the choices aren’t readily apparent. The four-seam fastball in particular doesn’t miss bats at a league-average rate. He might be better off continuing to throw everything, and that’s more-or-less how he proceeded last night.

AA: Frisco 11, @ San Antonio (SDP) 5
Frisco: 15 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 18-11, 1 GB, 62-36 overall

SP Dane Acker: 5 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 84 P / 53 S, 3.47 ERA
RP Jackson Kelley: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
3B Keyber Rodriguez: 2-6, 2B, .264/.313/.400
SS Max Acosta: 3-5, SB (20), .259/.318/.365
LF Aaron Zavala: 2-3, BB, 2 SB (7), .222/.341/.304
2B Frainyer Chavez: 3-5, 3B, SB (15), .254/.346/.361

All five Acker runs were unearned, as he ran into some trouble after a couple of errors. Side-armer Jackson Kelley jumped to AA and pitched well in his debut. The 2022 12th-rounder posted a 3.00 ERA with a 13% BB/HBP rate and 31% K rate in 45 innings at Hickory.

Hi-A: Hickory 3, @ Asheville (HOU) 1 (10)
Hickory: 3 hits, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 2 walks, 15 strikeouts

SP Aidan Curry: 2 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 30 P / 20 S, 6.88 ERA
RP Alejandro Rosario: 5 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 SO, 3.04 ERA
2B Cam Cauley: 1-4, 3B, BB, SB (18)
SS Sebastian Walcott: 1-4, BB, 2 SB (15)

Hi-A: Hickory 8, @ Asheville (HOU) 0 (7)
Hickory: 10 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Record: 17-15, 4 GB, 45-53 overall

SP Damian Mendoza: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 46 P / 29 S, 5.81 ERA
RP Luis Ramirez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 8.33 ERA
RP Josh Mollerus: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 5.19 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-4, HR (8), .246/.298/.425
3B Sebastian Walcott: 2-4, .251/.344/.425
C Tucker Mitchell: 2-4, .200/.296/.326

Sebastian Walcott’s first 41 games: .177/.321/.294, 28% SO
Sebastian Walcott’s next 47 games: .307/.364/.525, 26% SO

Yes, those are completely cherry-picked data sets. The stat police can arrest me if they dare. The point is, for more than half the season, Walcott hasn’t just been better but fantastic. His walk rate has fallen from 17% to 8% between sets, but that doesn’t bother me, at least not yet. Some of that decline could be increasing confidence in his swing versus taking more pitches in an effort to reach however possible. Some could be pitchers dealing more strikes because he was walking more than hitting.

Cam Cauley had a strong if brief July: .314/.364/.765. He played in only 13 games and only seven in the field.

Aidan Curry’s departure after two innings was because of rain the day before. Not to say Alejandro Rosario hasn’t already pitched well in high-A, but yesterday was the first outing that fully matched the best of his efforts in low-A. Assuming typical use, he’ll make five more starts and end up with 95-100 innings. He threw 75 at Miami last year.

Lo-A: Down East 6, @ Augusta (ATL) 2
Down East: 15 hits, 0 walks, 15 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 16-15, 3.5 GB, 51-45 overall

SP Kyle Larsen: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 2 HBP, 4 SO, 55 P / 30 S, 8.88 ERA
RP Alberto Mota: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 SO, 4.60 ERA
CF Jose De Jesus: 3-5
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-5, HR (11), .266/.319/.445
RF Yeremi Cabrera: 3-5, 2B, SB (2)
DH Pablo Guerrero: 1-4, HR (1)

The newcomers announced their presence with authority, accounting for six hits including a double and the first homer from Son of Vlad. Having the rookie season end in July is strange, but an advantage is meaningful time for those promoted afterwards. Under the pre-2020 system, the rookie and full seasons ended about a week apart, and the 2021 change in the full-season schedule extended that by maybe a few days. For example, Yeison Morrobel played eight games at Down East in 2022 after the rookie season ended. Gleider Figuereo appeared in five. Now, the gap is about six weeks.

Echedry Vargas has tied last year’s 11 homers. He needed 68 games instead of the 52 at the complex, but Down East is a higher level and tougher hitting environment.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBA
AA: Bratt
Hi-A: TBA
Lo-A: TBA (Also, I’m pointing this out far too late in the season, but Down East never lists a starting pitcher. If I have a name out to the side in parentheses, that’s a guess based on prior usage. In this case: B. Mendoza.)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
We have another data point for “‘down’ does not equal ‘done'” regarding in-season prospect reviews. In 2019, Texas designated catcher Tim Federowicz and called up Jose Trevino from the Pacific Coast League, where the MLB ball had been introduced, teams were scoring 5.9 runs per game, and the all-time record for homers had already been set with over a month still to play. In that setting, the 26-year-old, 26th-ranked Trevino was hitting .226/.263/.322 with two homers in 40 games,  and in 190 games in the upper minors he’d batted .237/.259/.329. What grade would that earn? Since then, he’s played 386 MLB games and will surpass five years of service in 2024. He’s maintained a career mostly via defense, but he’s boosted his contact marginally and developed enough power to get by.

Trade 3
Texas acquired LHP Andrew Chafin for RHP Chase Lee and RHP Joseph Montalvo. Texas also designated RHP Jonathan Hernandez for assignment.

Chase Lee returned to Round Rock at the end of June. In eight appearances covering 10.2 innings, Lee has a 1.69 ERA but a line of .273/.373/.364. He’s avoided dangerous contact but has been walk-prone, although his overall strike rate has been fine. Lee is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if unprotected. I wouldn’t expect him to be protected in the fall, which is not to say he has no shot at the Majors. Indeed, he could be in Detroit before then. Lee is the type who probably needs a hot streak in AAA and/or an opening to get the call, after which he could an up-and-down reliever or, if all goes well, steady middle relief.

I wrote about Montalvo yesterday. He’s a legitimate starting pitcher candidate, albeit with a wide gap between present state and ceiling.

The deal seems reasonable. The Rangers gave up a couple of guys who might reach the Majors, but any significant contribution at that level is far from assured.

The surprise, I suppose, is designating Hernandez for assignment. In case you’ve forgotten, Hernandez is out of options. Regarding relievers, a theme of these reports is consistency. One can visit a Triple A park on any given night and see a reliever with MLB-worthy stuff, maybe even better than some relievers you see on tv. The problem is they look the part only half the time or thereabouts. In other appearances, they’re getting themselves into trouble, and wriggling out is so much harder at the MLB level. They just can’t be trusted, and they don’t get the call. Hernandez got the call years ago, but in other respects he’s fitted that description lately. Hernandez has ERAs of 5.40 and 5.05 the past two seasons, and while ERA is often a dubious stat for relievers, in this case I think it encapsulates his performance pretty well. Despite closer-worthy stuff, his inconsistency became too much to bear. That said, if I’m a GM on another team and have room, I’m certainly contemplating a waiver claim.

Also, Texas traded recently designated IF Davis Wendzel to the Reds for cash.

Review Follow-Up
The first comment I received about yesterday’s prospect review was “this report makes me want to go drink.” I get it. I had many more downs than ups. And, to be clear, my opinion is 2024 hasn’t been a great year for the farm overall. However, I want to offer some thoughts to leaven what might have come across as overly pessimistic.

The very nature of professional baseball is going to produce more downs than ups. Most prospects don’t pan out. Most prospects can’t pan out. There isn’t room. Each club has up to 165 domestic minor leaguers (plus more in injured lists, plus the DSL roster), only 26 spots on an MLB roster, fewer still in starting roles. Thus, at some point, the down arrow arrives for most prospects. Also, injured players almost categorically receive down grades.

“Down” does not equal “done.” Had I performed this exercise in late July of 2022, I would have had no better than a “down slightly” on Cody Bradford, who’d been hammered for much of the season in AA and sported a 6.26 ERA. Less than a year later, he was unhittable in AAA and making his MLB debut. Performances and outlooks can change in a hurry.

One issue might be the nature of my grading. For example, Gleider Figuereo leads the organization in homers and is at a higher level than when the season started, but I rated him “even.” That’s because he’s had the quality of season I more-or-less envisioned. In my head, anybody on a top-30 list is already fairly well regarded, so in that respect, continued progress is the baseline for an “even” rating. In retrospect, perhaps an “up slightly” grade is deserved for Figuereo, and some of my grades might be too harsh.

The review was limited to whoever appeared on the MLB list a few months ago. Unmentioned were Alejandro Rosario, Winston Santos, Skylar Hales, some rookie-league standouts, several others who might have caught your eye.

Others Released
RHP Collin Wiles — Texas’s 2013 supplemental first-rounder had joined to assist a shorthanded Round Rock in April, was injured, and then pitched in Arizona for a while.

RHP Michael Reed — 29-year-old converted outfielder struck out 38 but walked/hit 32 in 28.2 innings.

RHP Brendan Morse — Last year’s 18-rounder out of Niagara County Community College, allowed 79 runners in 34.1 innings at the complex.

RHP Logan Bursick-Harrington — 23, undrafted out of Davenport University (MI, not IA), 38 runners in 18 innings in Arizona.

RHP Biembenido Brito — The 21-year-old has been around a while and struck out near;y a third of his opponents, but control was a persistent problem.

RHP Jackson Leath — 2021 12th-rounder found occasional success at Down East and Hickory but spent most of 2024 on the shelf, threw two innings in Arizona.

C Efrenyer Narvaez — In the US since 2021, couldn’t take advantage of an extended look in Down East in 2022, hadn’t played very often since.

IF Marco Soto — organizational acquisition from the Phils for C Jose Godoy, an offseason signing.

I can’t recall Texas ever releasing so many players in late July. Two reasons: 1) the new 165-man domestic minor league roster limit. Texas has signed 18 draft picks and at least four others recently. Somebody has to create room for them. 2) The rookie season ended three days ago instead of late August.

Other Moves
To Round Rock: LHP Walter Pennington (trade), IF Frainyer Chavez (from Frisco), C Andrew Knizer (optioned), IF Justin Foscue (optioned), IF Jonathan Ornelas (optioned)

To Frisco: LHP Mitch Bratt (from Hickory), OF Luis Mieses (from Hickory)

To Hickory: RHP Izack Tiger (from Down East), 1B Arturo Disla (from Down East)

To Down East: LHP Thomas Ireland, RHP Kyle Larsen, OF Yeremi Cabrera, OF Jose De Jesus, 1B Pablo Guerrero (all from AZ)

Time To Fetch My Dueling Glove
Per Jamey Newberg: “According to Scott Lucas, the Rangers are promoting first baseman Arturo Disla to High-A Hickory. He’s fun. Arturo, that is.”

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 7, Sugar Land (HOU) 1
Round Rock: 9 hits, 8 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 14-13, 4.5 GB, 51-50 overall

SP Tim Brennan: 1.2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 4 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 49 P / 22 S, 4.43 ERA
3B Andrew Knapp: 2-4, 2B, .290/.370/.435

In 1,143 games in 14 years across the pros, college, winter and summer leagues, Andrew Knapp had played one game at third base. He doubled that figure last night. That plus Frainyer Chavez up from Frisco to play second gives the impression that recently optioned Justin Foscue and Jonathan Ornelas were only nominally active. Knapp handled a couple of grounders without incident.

AA: Frisco 4, @ San Antonio (SDP) 2
Frisco: 11 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 3 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 17-11, 1 GB, 61-36 overall

SP Ben Anderson: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 81 P / 54 S, 3.75 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2.08 ERA
RP Robbie Ahlstrom: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 1.90 ERA
RP Seth Clark: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.27 ERA
SS Keyber Rodriguez: 3-5, 2B, .262/.312/.397
1B Josh Hatcher: 3-4, .292/.338/.434
RF Alejandro Osuna: 2-4, 2B, .317/.418/.573
LF Aaron Zavala: 1-2, 3 BB, .217/.336/.300

Frisco scored on two sac flies, a fielder’s (understandable but incorrect) choice, and Cooper Johnson’s 10th-inning RBI single, the team’s first hit with a runner in scoring position. Ben Anderson pitched a gem. Skylar Hales, Robby Ahlstrom, and Seth Clark split three perfect innings and struck out seven.

Hi-A: suspended

Completed today.

Lo-A: Down East 9, @ Augusta (ATL) 5
Down East: 10 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 7 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 15-15, 4.5 GB, 50-45 overall

SP Paul Bonzagni: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 10 SO, 87 P / 51 S, 3.68 ERA
RP Victor Simeon: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2.38 ERA
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-4, HR (10), HBP, SB (19), .264/.317/.435
1B Pablo Guerrero: 1-3, 2B, BB
LF Marcos Torres: 2-4, 2 HR (6)

12 days ago, Paul Bonzagni’s high in strikeouts was six. He fanned nine last week and ten last night. He also walked a career-high four, but let the man have his moment. Two weeks ago, Bonzagni had a 21% K rate, not bad but lower than the league rate of 25%.

CF Jose De Jesus was 1-5, and RF Yememi Cabrera went 0-3 with a walk, HBP, and steal. As part of the Arizona Complex League’s best offense, De Jesus batted .335/.407/.455 with 21 steals. Cabrera was .201/.438/.571 with a team-best nine homers and 40 walks, and he swiped 17 bases. The two were also co-leaders with five triples. Vlad’s son spent only three ACL games on the grass versus 36 at first and another 13 at DH. He hit .301/.367/.522 with seven homers and 17 other extra-base hits.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: Acker
Hi-A: Rosario
Lo-A: TBD

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Frisco’s SS Yonny Hernandez improved to .294/.412/.353 with two singles and a walk. Milwaukee released him from AAA Nashville yesterday.

Trade 1
Texas acquired catcher Carson Kelly from the Tigers for catcher Liam Hicks and RHP Tyler Owens.

I assume Kelly will replace Andrew Knizer and perhaps have a more active role behind Jonah Heim, who’s having a down year in the midst of being one of baseball’s busiest catchers the past two years. Even if Kelly backslides some, he’ll be a better hitter than Knizer and rates better defensively as well. He could be worth an extra win above replacement to the Rangers, meaningful in the context of continuing the fight for the division. Kelly is a free agent this fall.

Texas acquired Owens for OF JP Martinez last winter. Owens’ K rate of 25% was very close to the average for a Texas League reliever, and he excelled at keeping runners off the bases and was handling Frisco’s high-leverage situations. I’d half-expected him to be in Round Rock by now. That said, I wasn’t optimistic that he’d gain a 40 spot this fall.

Hicks was Texas’s 9th-rounder out of Arkansas State in 2021. With good contact and a tremendous batting eye, Hicks posted a .403 overall OBP at various levels including .385 at AA Frisco. He drew some attention in 2023’s Arizona Fall League for a .449/.553/.522 line. Any power is incidental. Like Owens, I was lukewarm about his 40 chances this fall, but Hicks has a legitimate shot at the Majors, most likely as a third catcher or just-in-case type.

Trade 2
Texas acquired LHP Walter Pennington for RHP Michael Lorenzen.

I’m going to type this and see whether I’m struck by lightning: The Rangers had a surplus of starting pitchers.

Still here. Even with Jon Gray potentially on the shelf, Texas has Eovaldi, Heaney, Scherzer, Dunning, Mahle on the way, Bradford on the way, deGrom on the way eventually.

KC signed Pennington as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and purchased his contract earlier this month for a two-batter MLB debut. In AAA Omaha, Pennington had a 2.26 ERA in 59.2 innings (no Texas minor league reliever has more the 50) with a 9% walk rate and 33% strikeout rate. Opponents are hitting .181/.255/.282.

His repertoire:
Slider (51%): average 83 MPH, 81-85 range, not the sweepy type, misses on 27% of all pitches (!) and 48% of swings (!!), the finishing pitch to 58 of his 79 strikeouts;
Cutter (26%): average 88.1 MPH, 86-90 range, below-average miss rate but hitters aren’t doing much against it;
Sinker (21%): average 91.1 MPH, range 89-93, average 13″ of horizontal movement, not much of a bat-misser and can be hit hard but very difficult to elevate.

Pennington also has a small number of pitches classified as four-seamers and changes. He’s improved his control in 2024, bringing his walk/HBP rate down and getting ahead in the count much better than the league average. He’s traditionally handled lefties much better, although this year is an exception. He was assigned to AAA Round Rock.

Released
RHP Austin Pruitt — His rehab assignment had concluded. He was on the 60-day IL, so his dismissal doesn’t open a 40 spot.

OF Geisel Cepeda — Signed out of Cuba last year. .205/.293/.286 as a 26-year-old in AAA.

RHP Michael Brewer — The 2019 32nd-rounder had struggled at Frisco last year. On the shelf early and then at the complex for a month, the reliever posted a walk-heavy 4.86 ERA at Hickory.

IF/OF Jayce Easley — Easley was Texas’s 2018 fifth-rounder. He played everywhere but catcher with a plurality at second. Easley led Down East’s record-setting base-swiping squad of 2021 with 70 steals. In four full seasons, he has always finished with more combined walks and HBPs than hits, and he managed a .372 OBP despite a .226 average. He would have become a free agent after the season.

IF Ben Blackwell — Undrafted out of Clemson last summer, Blackwell played all over the infield mostly at high-A Hickory, hitting .213/.293/.274 in 87 games.

OF Jojo Blackmon — Blackmon signed for an above-slot $250k as Texas’s 11th-round pick in 2021. He was fun to watch, for a while an interesting combination of speed and progressing power. He could take a pitch but struck out nearly 40% of the time, swamping whatever he accomplished wen putting the ball in play. He spent part of 2024 at the complex wasn’t making headway toward high-A.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 7, @ Albuquerque (COL) 11
Round Rock: 12 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 14-12, 3.5 GB, 51-49 overall

SP Adrian Sampson: 3.1 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 6 R, 4 BB, 7 SO, 80 P / 47 S, 5.91 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-5, HR (7), .287/.370/.405
SS Ezequiel Duran: 3-5, 3B, HR (2), .277/.302/.554
1B Blaine Crim: 1-2, 2 BB, .264/.374/.414
2B Jax Biggers: 2-4, 2 2B, .262/.390/.382

Ezequiel Duran’s five homers this week:
99 MPH / 23 degrees
99  / 28
101 / 21
101 / 23
111 / 20

Yesterday, I implied these would be homers in any PCL park, but I was going on general observation. As it turns out, some of these velo/angle combinations don’t leave the park as often as I suggested, but only for having slightly low angles, not for lack of velocity. Regardless, Duran had the type of week (.480/.500/1.700) that can’t simply be attributed to a friendly park.

AA: Frisco 4, Tulsa (LAD) 14
Frisco: 8 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 20 hits, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 16-11, 2 GB, 60-36 overall

SP Winston Santos: 2.2 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 6 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 67 P / 40 S, 8.16 ERA
3B Josh Jung: 2-3, 2B, HBP
1B Abi Ortiz: 3-5, 2B, HR (8), .217/.290/.367
DH Aaron Zavala: 2-4, BB, .215/.329/.299

Abimelec Ortiz is on a tear: .391/.451/.674 in his last 12 games, three of his season’s eight homers.

Not on a tear: Winston Santos. All but one of his four AA starts has been beset by homers, walks, HBPs, combinations therein. We’ve been here before and have to be patient.

Incidentally, a little over five years after reaching AA, Tyler Phillips threw a shutout for the Phils. He truly spent most of those five years looking nothing like what got him to AA in the first place. The control-over-command repertoire led to a bevy of extra-base hits in AA. His control evaporated in 2021 along with his 40-man spot. 2022 was on the shelf, and 2023 and early 2024 gave the appearance of AAA depth at best.

Hi-A: Hickory 6, Greenville (BOS) 5
Hickory: 8 hits, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 15-15, 4.5 GB, 43-53 overall

SP Joseph Montalvo: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 49 P / 31 S, 2.44 ERA
RP Ryan Lobus: 4.2 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 3.96 ERA
DH Cam Cauley: 3-4, HR (7), .246/.297/.410
CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, HR (1), .249/.302/.333

Anthony Gutierrez hit his first homer since last August. Although never placed on the IL, Cam Cauley hasn’t played much the last three weeks and only at DH. Nevertheless, two homers give him a .269/.321/.500 line in that limited span.

Lo-A: Down East 2, Fayetteville (HOU) 5
Down East: 4 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 14-15, 5.5 GB, 49-46 overall

SP Jose Gonzalez: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 55 P / 40 S, 2.08 ERA
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, HR (11), .281/.359/.438
RF Wady Mendez: 1-2, BB, 2 SB (18), .220/.330/.277

Arturo Disla has four homers in nine games since the All-Star break.

The top three in the organization in strikeouts are Kohl Drake (108), Jose Gonzalez (100), and Alejandro Rosario (99), just as I predicted in March. But seriously, if I’d offered a guess back then, I’d probably have said Leiter, Teodo, and Santos, who occupy the 4th through 6th spots. It’s probably not coincidence that the three leaders are 22-23 and did most or all of their damage in a low-level, pitcher-friendly league, but regardless, all have had fine seasons also unmarred by excessive walks.

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas acquired Ian Gibault from Tampa Bay. Nashville’s final game at New Orleans was rained out and wouldn’t be rescheduled. The Baby Cakes (né Zephrys) would relocate to a new park in Wichita in 2020, ostensibly as a member of the PCL.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 8, @ Albuquerque (COL) 5 (completion of suspended)
Round Rock: 16 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts

SP Steven Jennings: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 32 P / 25 S, 4.00 ERA
3B Ezequiel Duran: 4-5, 2B, HR (4), .250/.278/.487
LF Dustin Harris: 2-5, 2 2B
CF Sandro Fabian: 1-4, HR (13)
1B Blaine Crim: 3-4

Ezequiel Duran is hitting .450/.476/1.100 with a double and four homers in five games at Albuquerque. Yes, Albuquerque, where pitches flatten and balls soar, and The Isotopes’ pitching is dreadful. That said, Duran’s exit/angle combos indicate his homers could have left any park, and nine of his 16 balls in play were at least 95 MPH. Meanwhile, Blaine Crim is making up for months of bad luck on balls in play, hitting a rec-softball-worthy .667/.706/1.133 this week.

AAA: Round Rock 11, @ Albuquerque (COL) 3 (7)
Round Rock: 10 hits, 8 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 14-11, 2.5 GB, 51-48 overall

SP Jack Leiter: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 90 P / 55 S, 3.72 ERA
RF Sandro Fabian: 1-3, 2 BB, SB (4), .280/.346/.476
1B Blaine Crim: 2-2, HR (9), 2 BB, SB (6), .258/.363/.401
CF Dustin Harris: 2-3, HBP, SB (26), .282/.365/.393

Jack Leiter picked the wrong venue to strike out fewer than usual, but he escaped without excessive damage, which is all I care about in these instances. The park-adjusted league average runs allowed per nine innings in ABQ is 7.2, which would be four runs in five innings.

Incidentally, the ‘Topes have surrendered 8.7 runs per nine innings in their home park, and opponents are hitting .319/.397/.576 there. Just staggeringly poor.

AA: Frisco 5, Tulsa (LAD) 2
Frisco: 10 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 16-10, 1 GB, 60-35 overall

SP Ryan Garcia: 5.1 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 87 P / 63 S, 3.95 ERA
RP Tyler Owens: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.80 ERA
DH Josh Jung: 1-4
LF Alejandro Osuna: 2-4, BB, .320/.416/.587
1B Abimelec Ortiz: 1-2, HR (7), 2 BB, .210/.285/.348

Texas has some 40-man decisions upcoming. Josh Jung could be back very soon, Tyler Mahle’s rehab assignment expires in less than a week (barring a extension), and Cody Bradford has pitched on rehab twice this week. A path of least resistance would involve shifting injured pitchers Marc Church and Jose Corniell to the 60-day IL, which would allow them to accrue MLB service time but would not erase the option already used on them. Another possibility is Evan Carter, who hasn’t played in 63 days but remains on the ordinary IL for now. The Rangers also have some feasible DFA choices.

The active roster situation is tricky. I’d guess Justin Foscue or Jonathan Ornelas heads back to Round Rock when Jung is activated, but which current pitchers vacate for Mahle and Bradford? Those decisions could have impact well beyond a simple option.

Hi-A: Hickory 1, Greenville (BOS) 5
Hickory: 6 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-15, 4.5 GB, 42-53 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 6 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 77 P / 51 S, 3.42 ERA
C Ian Moller: 1-3, BB, SB (12), .228/.362/.297

Unfortunately, the story of the week is the bullpen: 19.2 IP, 20 H, 21 R, 22 BB, 21 SO.

Lo-A: Down East 3, Fayetteville (HOU) 2
Down East: 5 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts
Record: 13-15, 6.5 GB, 48-45 overall

SP David Davallilo: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 73 P / 51 S, 1.95 ERA
RP Bryan Magdaleno: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 1.88 ERA
RP Luke Savage: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 4.60 ERA
RP Adonis Villavicencio: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 5.59 ERA
1B Beycker Barroso: 1-2, HR (3), BB, .250/.412/.500

Fayetteville scored two and loaded the bases with one out, but reliever Bryan Magdaleno entered to strike out the next two batters.

Complex : Rangers 6, Diamondbacks 7
Rangers lose league semifinals 0-1
Rangers: 16 hits, 4, walks, 9 strikeouts
Diamondbacks: 10 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts

SP Collin Wiles: 2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, HBP, 2 SO
RP Thomas Ireland: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO
LF Yeremi Cabrera: 3-5
1B Pablo Guerrero: 3-4
2B Antonio Macias: 3-3, 2B, 2 BB
SS Yolfran Castillo: 2-5
RF Hector Osorio: 3-4, BB

A tough end to a fine season. After a double and two-out intentional walk, 22-year-old Angel Anazco walked the next two batters to force in the winning run.

30-year-old “rookie” Collin Wiles drew the start but had some trouble, including allowing a homer to Abdias De La Cruz, who didn’t go deep in 52 regular-season games, although he did manage 20 extra-base hits. Wiles is in Arizona on rehab. Texas had signed him to assist what was a badly shorthanded Express staff in April, but he suffered an injury in his second start. Fellow rehabber Larson Kindreich couldn’t complete an inning and surrendered three more runs. Down 6-1, Thomas Ireland (who spent all of this season at the complex after last season at Down East) was nearly flawless as the offense mounted a comeback. The Rangers had 21 runners compared to the Snakes’ 15, but the single-heavy attack left them wanting in the run column. Antonio Macias led off the 9th with a double, the only extra-base hit, but was stranded.

Sunday, the Diamondbacks will face the Dodgers, owners of the league’s best record at 40-20 and a 7-1 winner over the wild-card Giants.

Draft
Texas 20th-round pick C Mac Rose announced a commitment to Vanderbilt. He’d played at McLennan Community College, where 18th-round pitcher Kadyn Leon could play next spring. Texas conceivably could still sign Leon down the road as a draft-and-follow.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Sampson
AA: Santos
Hi-A: Lobus
Lo-A: TBA (Gonzalez)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Frisco’s Brock Burke allowed a run in 5.2 innings and fanned seven versus zero walks. Leody Taveras was 2-4.

Box Scores

AAA: suspended

The Express lead 3-0 in the 4th.

Texas released lefty Triston Polley, The 2019 16th-rounder didn’t throw terribly hard but had a sneaky slider. Unfortunately, intermittent control issues became much more pronounced in 2024, as he walked or hit nearly one of every five batters between AA and AAA.

AA: Frisco 0, Tulsa (LAD) 2
Frisco: 7 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 15-10, , 59-35 overall

SP Kumar Rocker: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 37 P / 26 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Cody Bradford: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.25 ERA
CF Alejandro Osuna: 2-3, 2B, BB, .310/.405/.592
3B Josh Jung: 1-3

Kumar Rocker excelled in his AA debut. The dominant pitches were fastballs (two and four-seamers, 96-99, steadily 97) and power sliders. He added a change, and few other pitches may have been slider variants but flirted with curve status. The tally: 37 pitches, 26 strikes. 11 balls, 6 called strikes. 20 swings, 8 misses, 6 fouls, 6 balls in play. Rocker still has what appears to be a fairly short stride to the plate but nothing like the stiff, halting delivery of 2022’s Arizona Fall league. Particularly compared to his days as Vanderbilt, the delivery is relaxed, lacking the obvious max-effort and falling off the mound. Video.

Josh Jung lined a single to left in his first at-bat, followed by a groundout and swinging K against Dodger prospect Chris Campos.

Hi-A: Hickory 0, Greenville (BOS) 10 (7)
Hickory: 6 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 11 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-14, 3 GB, 42-52 overall

SP DJ McCarty: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 2 HBP, 6 SO, 69 P / 41 S, 3.53 ERA

They pulled the tarp in the middle of the 7th. I assume the weather was poor, but after 11 walks (four of which plated runners), two hit batters, two wild pitches, and an error, maybe the grounds crew just said “we’re done” and dared anyone to argue.

Sebastian Walcott and Yosy Galan doubled.

Lo-A: Down East 1, Fayetteville (HOU) 0 (7)
Down East: 6 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 11-15, , 46-45 overall

SP Bryan Mendoza: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 68 P / 50 S, 2.54 ERA
RP Victor Simeon: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.49 ERA
1B Arturo Disla: 2-3, 2B, .277/.358/.426
2B Chandler Pollard: 2-2, 2 SB (30), .232/.311/.283

With two out and none on in the 4th, Arturo Disla reached on an infield single and advanced on a balk, wild pitch, and strikeout/wild pitch. Fayetteville had the game’s only hit with a runner in scoring position, but LF Erick Alvarez threw out Chase Jaworsky at the plate.

Brayan Mendoza and Victor Simeon combined on a mini-shutout. Simeon, who impressed me in Surprise, has struck out 31 in 21 innings and allowed only nine hits. His control isn’t good (16% BB/HBP) but good enough when combined with so few hits.

Lo-A: Down East 3, Fayetteville (HOU) 2 (7)
Down East: 3 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 12-15, 6.5 GB, 47-45 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 41 P / 24 S, 3.05 ERA
RP Willan Bormie: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.54 ERA
CF Marcos Torres: 1-2, HR (4), .181/.284/.306

Marcos Torres knocked a three-run homer.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Leiter
AA: Garcia
Hi-A: Drake
Lo-A: TBA (Davalillo)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Josh Jung was 3-4 for low-A Hickory. Las Vegas hit 11 home runs in defeating El Paso 20-11. with 36 days remaining in the season, every PCL team had already allowed more homers than the previous year.

Sorry for the delay. I’ve been dealing with computer virus trouble and lost a mostly completed report, and I had to care for other tasks before renewing this one.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 4, @ Albuquerque (COL) 6
Round Rock: 7 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 12-11, 3 GB, 49-48 overall

SP Owen White: 6 IP, 7 H (3 HR), 5 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 83 P / 52 S, 5.67 ERA
SS Ezequiel Duran: 1-4, HR (3), .211/.243/.408
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, SB (25), .280/.365/.387
1B Davis Wendzel: 1-4, HR (6), .293/.387/.517

Owen White deserved better. One of his three homers is catching up to the Voyager probe, but the other two were at speed/angle combinations that had left the yard only 14%-17% of the time in the PCL so far this season. The homers by Duran and Wendzel were not park-aided.

AA: Frisco 9, Tulsa (LAD) 3
Frisco: 8 hits, 8 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 1 walk, 11 strikeouts
Record: 15-9, tied for first, 59-34 overall

SP Tyler Mahle: 4 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 55 P / 34 S, 4.50 ERA
RP Bryan Chi: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 4.10 ERA
3B Cody Freeman: 2-2, 2B, HR (12), 2 BB, SB (10), .277/.336/.471
SS Keyber Rodriguez: 2-3, 2B, SB (5), .252/.303/.386

Tyler Mahle retired his final ten batters, but a single, walk, and two doubles in the 1st sullied his line. Bryan Chi produced a nearly identical line to last night in 2023 but in low-A, so Thursday represents a career outing. The 25-year-old Cuban had bounced all over the system in the season’s first month before settling in at Frisco, arguably a tougher-than-preferable location, but he’s slowly acclimating.

Cody Freeman’s 146 bases on hits are the best of his career, and we’re still in July. At 23, he’s still fairly young for the level.

Kumar Rocker will start tonight as an ordinary roster member, no longer on rehab.

Hi-A: Hickory 4, Greenville (BOS) 5
Hickory: 7 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-12, 2.5 GB, 42-50 overall

SP Alejandro Rosario: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 79 P / 55 S, 3.86 ERA
SS Sebastian Walcott: 3-5, HR (9), SB (13), .195/.247/.414
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-4, HR (6),

Hi-A: Hickory 6, Greenville (BOS) 7 (11)
Hickory: 7 hits, 10 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 14-13, 2.5 GB, 42-51 overall

SP Mitch Bratt: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 77 P / 55 S, 3.03 ERA
RP DJ Peters: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 6.48 ERA
2B Jayce Easley: 1-2, 3 BB, 2 SB (16), .176/.316/.200
SS Sebastian Walcott: 0-2, 3 BB, .247/.344/.426
1B Luis Mieses: 3-5, 2B, SB (3), .275/.306/.483
LF Quincy Scott: 1-3, 2 BB, .209/.314/.275

A pity. Hickory went 4-for-27 with runners in scoring position in the two games. In the conclusion of the rain-suspended Wednesday game. the Crawdads had the tying run in scoring position in the 8th and 9th to no avail. In the regularly scheduled contest,  Hickory had the winning run on third in the 10th and tying run in the 11th but couldn’t get either across.

For the first time with Hickory, Alejandro Rosario avoided walking anyone, a commonplace occurrence in Down East. The updated Fangraphs top-100 prospect list contains Sebastian Walcott at #26, and, in a mild surprise, Rosario at #82. Rosario has certainly been story of the season in terms of prospects on the rise, but I wasn’t expecting such a lofty ranking so soon, although I was duly impressed  during my in-person visit in June.

June 6th was the last time Mitch Bratt allowed more than two runs or one walk.

Lo-A: wet

Two today.

Rookie: Rangers 2, Guardians 3
Record: 36-24, division champion

The Rangers concluded the regular season with a loss but ran away with the division, besting the M’s by eight games. They’ll play the Diamondbacks (39-21) tomorrow in a one-and-done, and if victorious they’ll face either the Dodgers (40-20) or Giants (33-27) in the championship. 

Brock Porter’s final complex-league appearance found a middle ground: 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0 SO. He allowed his first homer, but the combined four BB/HBP were actually a mild improvement on what came before. He exits with a 7.36 ERA and bizarre .150/.393/.225 opposing line. 16 of 56 batters (29%) reached via walk or HBP., and 10 (19%) struck out. The question now is whether Porter remains in Arizona or is given the chance to continue pitching in real games. I don’t have a good feel for that. Obviously, the control is dire, and he’d probably necessitate a another reliever warming before he even took the mound, but he has always been extraordinarily hard to hit, so heading to Down East isn’t automatically a much more difficult situation.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBA
AA: Rocker
Hi-A: McCarty
Lo-A: TBA x 2

Five Years Ago Yesterday
I expanded on the organizational rankings provided by Fangraphs (12th) and Baseball America (28th). “The short, oversimplified version: FanGraphs acknowledges the lack of stars but credits the impressive depth. Baseball America acknowledges the lack of stars, glances askew at the depth, and decries all the injuries, which to be sure are numerous and gobsmacking.” I found a middle ground, predictably. Maybe too predictably. Fangraphs was an outlier on Solak, more confident than anyone I can recall that he’d become an everyday player, and that impression had an outsize effect on the rankings. Using the value system assigned to scouting grades, I found that decreasing him from a 50 to a 45 dropped the entire system from 12th to 17th. Regarding Baseball America, I felt the system had improved from a nadir of circa 2017, so if the Rangers were 28th in 2019, what were they then?