Donations
Following Texas’s 1-5 road trip and my prospect review with more downs than ups, it’s time to announce the annual request for donations. (I was not a marketing major in college.) Any amount — $5, $10, $20, whatever suits you — is greatly appreciated. I will say that the average in recent years has been around $25. And if the amount is zero, that’s okay, too. There’s no obligation, and I don’t tailor the level of coverage to what is donated. I just keep doing what I do and am glad people keep reading.
I do hope you enjoy the reports, even though 2024 hasn’t proceeded as hoped. Fortunately, the Rangers have the fortune of playing in an unexpectedly weak division and still have a chance. Friend of the Report Eleanor Czajka made a point that this year’s version of the Rangers is playing to last year’s original expectations, improved on 2022 but not really a good club. We got a title contender and winner a year early.
If you would like to participate, you have several options:
1. Via Paypal to scottrlucas@gmail.com(Note! scottrlucas with an “r” in the middle, not scottlucas)
2. Via venmo to @scottrlucas (same thing, needs an “r”)
3. Check or money order to Scott Lucas, PO Box 300453, Austin, TX 78703
4. If you prefer another method, email me (minors@scottlucas.com)
AAA: Round Rock 4, Sugar Land (HOU) 7
Round Rock: 5 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 14-14, 5.5 GB, 51-51 overall
SP Tyler Mahle: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 74 P / 48 S, 1.93 ERA
LF Trevor Hauver: 2-3, 2B, HR (), .204/.323/.330
Mahle exceeded his previous high of 55 pitches by 19. He might have lasted into the 6th if not for a shaky 2nd, during which he allowed a walk and two doubles while throwing enough pitches to have Matt Festa warming hastily. Also, Sugar Land simply didn’t swing at low and glove-side fastballs. They watched 28 out of 40 four-seamers, and a ridiculous 61% of those were called strikes. (The league-average strike rate on taken fastballs is 29%.)
Owen White has pitched as a reliever a handful of times in the minors, but always under peculiar circumstances like quasi-rehab outings (the 2022 AA playoffs, likely the peak of his prospect status), following other rehabbers, or coming in to pitch a regular workload in a game suspended by rain. Last night, he pitched in relief, full stop. We’ll see if this becomes his new role or is simply a pause. Unfortunately, results were lacking. In 1.2 innings, he walked two batters and allowed three runs. He surrendered two moon shots in the 8th, one of which was just soft enough to land shy of the wall, but the second did not. Irrespective of immediate results, as for the potential role change, I have mixed feelings. My hope was he could expand on improve on his repertoire during this protracted down period, and to an extent, I think he has. He’s throwing six pitches, none fewer than 6% of the time, and none rate badly enough that I’m thinking “why are you throwing that.” The downside is that relief often entails cutting back to the most effective two or three pitches, and in White’s case, the choices aren’t readily apparent. The four-seam fastball in particular doesn’t miss bats at a league-average rate. He might be better off continuing to throw everything, and that’s more-or-less how he proceeded last night.
AA: Frisco 11, @ San Antonio (SDP) 5
Frisco: 15 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 18-11, 1 GB, 62-36 overall
SP Dane Acker: 5 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 84 P / 53 S, 3.47 ERA
RP Jackson Kelley: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
3B Keyber Rodriguez: 2-6, 2B, .264/.313/.400
SS Max Acosta: 3-5, SB (20), .259/.318/.365
LF Aaron Zavala: 2-3, BB, 2 SB (7), .222/.341/.304
2B Frainyer Chavez: 3-5, 3B, SB (15), .254/.346/.361
All five Acker runs were unearned, as he ran into some trouble after a couple of errors. Side-armer Jackson Kelley jumped to AA and pitched well in his debut. The 2022 12th-rounder posted a 3.00 ERA with a 13% BB/HBP rate and 31% K rate in 45 innings at Hickory.
Hi-A: Hickory 3, @ Asheville (HOU) 1 (10)
Hickory: 3 hits, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 2 walks, 15 strikeouts
SP Aidan Curry: 2 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 30 P / 20 S, 6.88 ERA
RP Alejandro Rosario: 5 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 SO, 3.04 ERA
2B Cam Cauley: 1-4, 3B, BB, SB (18)
SS Sebastian Walcott: 1-4, BB, 2 SB (15)
Hi-A: Hickory 8, @ Asheville (HOU) 0 (7)
Hickory: 10 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Record: 17-15, 4 GB, 45-53 overall
SP Damian Mendoza: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 46 P / 29 S, 5.81 ERA
RP Luis Ramirez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 8.33 ERA
RP Josh Mollerus: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 5.19 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-4, HR (8), .246/.298/.425
3B Sebastian Walcott: 2-4, .251/.344/.425
C Tucker Mitchell: 2-4, .200/.296/.326
Sebastian Walcott’s first 41 games: .177/.321/.294, 28% SO
Sebastian Walcott’s next 47 games: .307/.364/.525, 26% SO
Yes, those are completely cherry-picked data sets. The stat police can arrest me if they dare. The point is, for more than half the season, Walcott hasn’t just been better but fantastic. His walk rate has fallen from 17% to 8% between sets, but that doesn’t bother me, at least not yet. Some of that decline could be increasing confidence in his swing versus taking more pitches in an effort to reach however possible. Some could be pitchers dealing more strikes because he was walking more than hitting.
Cam Cauley had a strong if brief July: .314/.364/.765. He played in only 13 games and only seven in the field.
Aidan Curry’s departure after two innings was because of rain the day before. Not to say Alejandro Rosario hasn’t already pitched well in high-A, but yesterday was the first outing that fully matched the best of his efforts in low-A. Assuming typical use, he’ll make five more starts and end up with 95-100 innings. He threw 75 at Miami last year.
Lo-A: Down East 6, @ Augusta (ATL) 2
Down East: 15 hits, 0 walks, 15 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 16-15, 3.5 GB, 51-45 overall
SP Kyle Larsen: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 2 HBP, 4 SO, 55 P / 30 S, 8.88 ERA
RP Alberto Mota: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 SO, 4.60 ERA
CF Jose De Jesus: 3-5
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-5, HR (11), .266/.319/.445
RF Yeremi Cabrera: 3-5, 2B, SB (2)
DH Pablo Guerrero: 1-4, HR (1)
The newcomers announced their presence with authority, accounting for six hits including a double and the first homer from Son of Vlad. Having the rookie season end in July is strange, but an advantage is meaningful time for those promoted afterwards. Under the pre-2020 system, the rookie and full seasons ended about a week apart, and the 2021 change in the full-season schedule extended that by maybe a few days. For example, Yeison Morrobel played eight games at Down East in 2022 after the rookie season ended. Gleider Figuereo appeared in five. Now, the gap is about six weeks.
Echedry Vargas has tied last year’s 11 homers. He needed 68 games instead of the 52 at the complex, but Down East is a higher level and tougher hitting environment.
Today’s Starters
AAA: TBA
AA: Bratt
Hi-A: TBA
Lo-A: TBA (Also, I’m pointing this out far too late in the season, but Down East never lists a starting pitcher. If I have a name out to the side in parentheses, that’s a guess based on prior usage. In this case: B. Mendoza.)
Five Years Ago Yesterday
We have another data point for “‘down’ does not equal ‘done'” regarding in-season prospect reviews. In 2019, Texas designated catcher Tim Federowicz and called up Jose Trevino from the Pacific Coast League, where the MLB ball had been introduced, teams were scoring 5.9 runs per game, and the all-time record for homers had already been set with over a month still to play. In that setting, the 26-year-old, 26th-ranked Trevino was hitting .226/.263/.322 with two homers in 40 games, and in 190 games in the upper minors he’d batted .237/.259/.329. What grade would that earn? Since then, he’s played 386 MLB games and will surpass five years of service in 2024. He’s maintained a career mostly via defense, but he’s boosted his contact marginally and developed enough power to get by.