AAA: Round Rock 1, Oklahoma City (LAD) 9
Round Rock: 6 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 27-29, 5 GB, 64-66 overall
SP Jacob deGrom: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 43 P / 30 S, 0.00 ERA
LF Dustin Harris: 1-3, BB, .274/.360/.294
RF Kellen Strahm: 2-4, 2B, .284/.390/.364
A soft single and walk in the 2nd were the only blemishes to Jacob de Grom’s record. OKC swung at 50% of his out-of-zone pitches (league rate 28%) and whiffed on half of those (league rate 45%).
Yesterday I discussed Owen White, recalled yesterday to the Rangers. Today, Dustin Harris, who was not but has received some attention lately by hitting .331/.406/.483 since the beginning of July.
My persistent worry with Harris has been the lack of exit velocity. Last I checked, his median and 90th-percentile velocities would rank at or near the bottom among MLB hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate. He simply doesn’t hit very hard. He succeeds with angles, avoiding excess grounders and spraying liners that might reach to and beyond the fence if hit hard enough or will drop in front of fielders if hit softly. His profile is fairly similar to Josh Smith when he was in AAA. The difference is Smith can play just about anywhere, while Harris is a LF/1B (and CF in a pinch).
Has that profile changed in the past two months? A little. His top-end velocity hasn’t budged. His mid-range velocity has improved, and that’s important. That’s an area where seemingly small increases can have a large impact on hit rate. He’s also getting a bunch of soft hits. The league is hitting .200 on airborne balls hit in the 60-75 MPH range. Harris is hitting .692, 9-for-13. That’s nearly 20% of his hits during this hot stretch. Even with his knack for angles, that just seems incredibly lucky. Put another way, I’d be very reluctant to count on that type of production at the MLB level. So on the whole, I’d say his recent success is combination of genuinely better results and a healthy portion of luck.
AA: Frisco 12, @ NW Arkansas (KAN) 7
Frisco: 12 hits, 6 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 32-25, 3 GB, 76-50 overall
SP Kohl Drake: 5 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 82 P / 54 S, 4.38 ERA
RP Dane Acker: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.23 ERA
SS Max Acosta: 2-2, HR (6), 3 BB, .270/.332/.380
RF Josh Hatcher: 2-5, 2B, .301/.351/.441
1B Abi Ortiz: 1-4, HR (14), BB, .230/.315/.390
Abi Ortiz has a .302/.402/.523 line dating back to Independence Day and nine homers in his last 30 games. Wonderful to see.
Hi-A: Hickory 10, @ Asheville (HOU) 0
Hickory: 7 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 32-28, 7.5 GB, 60-66 overall, eliminated
SP David Davalillo: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 SO, 85 P / 55 S, 2.25 ERA
RP Avery Weems: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 1-3, HR (1), BB, .197/.357/.288
SS Cam Cauley: 3-4, 2B, HR (12), BB, 2 SB (26), .231/.295/.411
DH Arturo Disla: 2-4, HR (8), BB, .255/.325/.539
C Cal Stark: 1-3, HR (1), HBP
21-year-old David Davalillo has fanned ten in two of four high-A starts. He’s struck out 31 and walked only five in that span.
Avery Weems made his first appearance since 2022. Part of the Lance Lynn trade, Weems underwet Tommy John surgery early in 2023.
Undrafted Tennessee alum Cal Stark made his pro debut. Strk batted .212/.353/.511 with 11 homers in 53 games for tte Vols in 2024.
Lo-A: Down East 2, @ Myrtle Beach (CHC) 4
Down East: 8 hits, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 27-30, 7 GB, 62-60 overall, eliminated
SP Willian Bormie: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 80 P / 54 S, 1.98 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, HBP, 5 SO, 5.40 ERA
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-4, SB (26), .277/.321/.452
16th-round righty Eric Loomis made his pro debut. The Missouri State alum featured a low-90s fastball with enough tail to fluster both opposing hitters and himself. He added an occasional slider.
The loss eliminated Down East from division contention. The official page says otherwise, but I believe it still assumes some rainouts will be made up. The Woodies host league-worst Augusta (46-77) next week for their final six games as an affiliate of the Texas Rangers.
Five Years Ago Yesterday
Tim Dillard threw 125 pitches in seven innings for AAA Nashville. Dillard was 36 and threw relatively gently from a low slot, so he could ignore modern usage standards. Tyler Phillips threw 6.1 innings of one-run ball for Frisco. The previous week, I saw him in Springfield, MO, the last game I would watch in person for a very long time.