Category: Daily Report

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 8, @ Albuquerque (COL) 5 (completion of suspended)
Round Rock: 16 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts

SP Steven Jennings: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 32 P / 25 S, 4.00 ERA
3B Ezequiel Duran: 4-5, 2B, HR (4), .250/.278/.487
LF Dustin Harris: 2-5, 2 2B
CF Sandro Fabian: 1-4, HR (13)
1B Blaine Crim: 3-4

Ezequiel Duran is hitting .450/.476/1.100 with a double and four homers in five games at Albuquerque. Yes, Albuquerque, where pitches flatten and balls soar, and The Isotopes’ pitching is dreadful. That said, Duran’s exit/angle combos indicate his homers could have left any park, and nine of his 16 balls in play were at least 95 MPH. Meanwhile, Blaine Crim is making up for months of bad luck on balls in play, hitting a rec-softball-worthy .667/.706/1.133 this week.

AAA: Round Rock 11, @ Albuquerque (COL) 3 (7)
Round Rock: 10 hits, 8 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 14-11, 2.5 GB, 51-48 overall

SP Jack Leiter: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 90 P / 55 S, 3.72 ERA
RF Sandro Fabian: 1-3, 2 BB, SB (4), .280/.346/.476
1B Blaine Crim: 2-2, HR (9), 2 BB, SB (6), .258/.363/.401
CF Dustin Harris: 2-3, HBP, SB (26), .282/.365/.393

Jack Leiter picked the wrong venue to strike out fewer than usual, but he escaped without excessive damage, which is all I care about in these instances. The park-adjusted league average runs allowed per nine innings in ABQ is 7.2, which would be four runs in five innings.

Incidentally, the ‘Topes have surrendered 8.7 runs per nine innings in their home park, and opponents are hitting .319/.397/.576 there. Just staggeringly poor.

AA: Frisco 5, Tulsa (LAD) 2
Frisco: 10 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 16-10, 1 GB, 60-35 overall

SP Ryan Garcia: 5.1 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 87 P / 63 S, 3.95 ERA
RP Tyler Owens: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.80 ERA
DH Josh Jung: 1-4
LF Alejandro Osuna: 2-4, BB, .320/.416/.587
1B Abimelec Ortiz: 1-2, HR (7), 2 BB, .210/.285/.348

Texas has some 40-man decisions upcoming. Josh Jung could be back very soon, Tyler Mahle’s rehab assignment expires in less than a week (barring a extension), and Cody Bradford has pitched on rehab twice this week. A path of least resistance would involve shifting injured pitchers Marc Church and Jose Corniell to the 60-day IL, which would allow them to accrue MLB service time but would not erase the option already used on them. Another possibility is Evan Carter, who hasn’t played in 63 days but remains on the ordinary IL for now. The Rangers also have some feasible DFA choices.

The active roster situation is tricky. I’d guess Justin Foscue or Jonathan Ornelas heads back to Round Rock when Jung is activated, but which current pitchers vacate for Mahle and Bradford? Those decisions could have impact well beyond a simple option.

Hi-A: Hickory 1, Greenville (BOS) 5
Hickory: 6 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-15, 4.5 GB, 42-53 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 6 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 77 P / 51 S, 3.42 ERA
C Ian Moller: 1-3, BB, SB (12), .228/.362/.297

Unfortunately, the story of the week is the bullpen: 19.2 IP, 20 H, 21 R, 22 BB, 21 SO.

Lo-A: Down East 3, Fayetteville (HOU) 2
Down East: 5 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts
Record: 13-15, 6.5 GB, 48-45 overall

SP David Davallilo: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 73 P / 51 S, 1.95 ERA
RP Bryan Magdaleno: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 1.88 ERA
RP Luke Savage: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 4.60 ERA
RP Adonis Villavicencio: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 5.59 ERA
1B Beycker Barroso: 1-2, HR (3), BB, .250/.412/.500

Fayetteville scored two and loaded the bases with one out, but reliever Bryan Magdaleno entered to strike out the next two batters.

Complex : Rangers 6, Diamondbacks 7
Rangers lose league semifinals 0-1
Rangers: 16 hits, 4, walks, 9 strikeouts
Diamondbacks: 10 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts

SP Collin Wiles: 2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, HBP, 2 SO
RP Thomas Ireland: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO
LF Yeremi Cabrera: 3-5
1B Pablo Guerrero: 3-4
2B Antonio Macias: 3-3, 2B, 2 BB
SS Yolfran Castillo: 2-5
RF Hector Osorio: 3-4, BB

A tough end to a fine season. After a double and two-out intentional walk, 22-year-old Angel Anazco walked the next two batters to force in the winning run.

30-year-old “rookie” Collin Wiles drew the start but had some trouble, including allowing a homer to Abdias De La Cruz, who didn’t go deep in 52 regular-season games, although he did manage 20 extra-base hits. Wiles is in Arizona on rehab. Texas had signed him to assist what was a badly shorthanded Express staff in April, but he suffered an injury in his second start. Fellow rehabber Larson Kindreich couldn’t complete an inning and surrendered three more runs. Down 6-1, Thomas Ireland (who spent all of this season at the complex after last season at Down East) was nearly flawless as the offense mounted a comeback. The Rangers had 21 runners compared to the Snakes’ 15, but the single-heavy attack left them wanting in the run column. Antonio Macias led off the 9th with a double, the only extra-base hit, but was stranded.

Sunday, the Diamondbacks will face the Dodgers, owners of the league’s best record at 40-20 and a 7-1 winner over the wild-card Giants.

Draft
Texas 20th-round pick C Mac Rose announced a commitment to Vanderbilt. He’d played at McLennan Community College, where 18th-round pitcher Kadyn Leon could play next spring. Texas conceivably could still sign Leon down the road as a draft-and-follow.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Sampson
AA: Santos
Hi-A: Lobus
Lo-A: TBA (Gonzalez)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Frisco’s Brock Burke allowed a run in 5.2 innings and fanned seven versus zero walks. Leody Taveras was 2-4.

Box Scores

AAA: suspended

The Express lead 3-0 in the 4th.

Texas released lefty Triston Polley, The 2019 16th-rounder didn’t throw terribly hard but had a sneaky slider. Unfortunately, intermittent control issues became much more pronounced in 2024, as he walked or hit nearly one of every five batters between AA and AAA.

AA: Frisco 0, Tulsa (LAD) 2
Frisco: 7 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 15-10, , 59-35 overall

SP Kumar Rocker: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 37 P / 26 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Cody Bradford: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.25 ERA
CF Alejandro Osuna: 2-3, 2B, BB, .310/.405/.592
3B Josh Jung: 1-3

Kumar Rocker excelled in his AA debut. The dominant pitches were fastballs (two and four-seamers, 96-99, steadily 97) and power sliders. He added a change, and few other pitches may have been slider variants but flirted with curve status. The tally: 37 pitches, 26 strikes. 11 balls, 6 called strikes. 20 swings, 8 misses, 6 fouls, 6 balls in play. Rocker still has what appears to be a fairly short stride to the plate but nothing like the stiff, halting delivery of 2022’s Arizona Fall league. Particularly compared to his days as Vanderbilt, the delivery is relaxed, lacking the obvious max-effort and falling off the mound. Video.

Josh Jung lined a single to left in his first at-bat, followed by a groundout and swinging K against Dodger prospect Chris Campos.

Hi-A: Hickory 0, Greenville (BOS) 10 (7)
Hickory: 6 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 11 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-14, 3 GB, 42-52 overall

SP DJ McCarty: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 2 HBP, 6 SO, 69 P / 41 S, 3.53 ERA

They pulled the tarp in the middle of the 7th. I assume the weather was poor, but after 11 walks (four of which plated runners), two hit batters, two wild pitches, and an error, maybe the grounds crew just said “we’re done” and dared anyone to argue.

Sebastian Walcott and Yosy Galan doubled.

Lo-A: Down East 1, Fayetteville (HOU) 0 (7)
Down East: 6 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 11-15, , 46-45 overall

SP Bryan Mendoza: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 68 P / 50 S, 2.54 ERA
RP Victor Simeon: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.49 ERA
1B Arturo Disla: 2-3, 2B, .277/.358/.426
2B Chandler Pollard: 2-2, 2 SB (30), .232/.311/.283

With two out and none on in the 4th, Arturo Disla reached on an infield single and advanced on a balk, wild pitch, and strikeout/wild pitch. Fayetteville had the game’s only hit with a runner in scoring position, but LF Erick Alvarez threw out Chase Jaworsky at the plate.

Brayan Mendoza and Victor Simeon combined on a mini-shutout. Simeon, who impressed me in Surprise, has struck out 31 in 21 innings and allowed only nine hits. His control isn’t good (16% BB/HBP) but good enough when combined with so few hits.

Lo-A: Down East 3, Fayetteville (HOU) 2 (7)
Down East: 3 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 12-15, 6.5 GB, 47-45 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 41 P / 24 S, 3.05 ERA
RP Willan Bormie: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.54 ERA
CF Marcos Torres: 1-2, HR (4), .181/.284/.306

Marcos Torres knocked a three-run homer.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Leiter
AA: Garcia
Hi-A: Drake
Lo-A: TBA (Davalillo)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Josh Jung was 3-4 for low-A Hickory. Las Vegas hit 11 home runs in defeating El Paso 20-11. with 36 days remaining in the season, every PCL team had already allowed more homers than the previous year.

Sorry for the delay. I’ve been dealing with computer virus trouble and lost a mostly completed report, and I had to care for other tasks before renewing this one.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 4, @ Albuquerque (COL) 6
Round Rock: 7 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 12-11, 3 GB, 49-48 overall

SP Owen White: 6 IP, 7 H (3 HR), 5 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 83 P / 52 S, 5.67 ERA
SS Ezequiel Duran: 1-4, HR (3), .211/.243/.408
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, SB (25), .280/.365/.387
1B Davis Wendzel: 1-4, HR (6), .293/.387/.517

Owen White deserved better. One of his three homers is catching up to the Voyager probe, but the other two were at speed/angle combinations that had left the yard only 14%-17% of the time in the PCL so far this season. The homers by Duran and Wendzel were not park-aided.

AA: Frisco 9, Tulsa (LAD) 3
Frisco: 8 hits, 8 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 1 walk, 11 strikeouts
Record: 15-9, tied for first, 59-34 overall

SP Tyler Mahle: 4 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 55 P / 34 S, 4.50 ERA
RP Bryan Chi: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 4.10 ERA
3B Cody Freeman: 2-2, 2B, HR (12), 2 BB, SB (10), .277/.336/.471
SS Keyber Rodriguez: 2-3, 2B, SB (5), .252/.303/.386

Tyler Mahle retired his final ten batters, but a single, walk, and two doubles in the 1st sullied his line. Bryan Chi produced a nearly identical line to last night in 2023 but in low-A, so Thursday represents a career outing. The 25-year-old Cuban had bounced all over the system in the season’s first month before settling in at Frisco, arguably a tougher-than-preferable location, but he’s slowly acclimating.

Cody Freeman’s 146 bases on hits are the best of his career, and we’re still in July. At 23, he’s still fairly young for the level.

Kumar Rocker will start tonight as an ordinary roster member, no longer on rehab.

Hi-A: Hickory 4, Greenville (BOS) 5
Hickory: 7 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-12, 2.5 GB, 42-50 overall

SP Alejandro Rosario: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 79 P / 55 S, 3.86 ERA
SS Sebastian Walcott: 3-5, HR (9), SB (13), .195/.247/.414
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-4, HR (6),

Hi-A: Hickory 6, Greenville (BOS) 7 (11)
Hickory: 7 hits, 10 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 14-13, 2.5 GB, 42-51 overall

SP Mitch Bratt: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 77 P / 55 S, 3.03 ERA
RP DJ Peters: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 6.48 ERA
2B Jayce Easley: 1-2, 3 BB, 2 SB (16), .176/.316/.200
SS Sebastian Walcott: 0-2, 3 BB, .247/.344/.426
1B Luis Mieses: 3-5, 2B, SB (3), .275/.306/.483
LF Quincy Scott: 1-3, 2 BB, .209/.314/.275

A pity. Hickory went 4-for-27 with runners in scoring position in the two games. In the conclusion of the rain-suspended Wednesday game. the Crawdads had the tying run in scoring position in the 8th and 9th to no avail. In the regularly scheduled contest,  Hickory had the winning run on third in the 10th and tying run in the 11th but couldn’t get either across.

For the first time with Hickory, Alejandro Rosario avoided walking anyone, a commonplace occurrence in Down East. The updated Fangraphs top-100 prospect list contains Sebastian Walcott at #26, and, in a mild surprise, Rosario at #82. Rosario has certainly been story of the season in terms of prospects on the rise, but I wasn’t expecting such a lofty ranking so soon, although I was duly impressed  during my in-person visit in June.

June 6th was the last time Mitch Bratt allowed more than two runs or one walk.

Lo-A: wet

Two today.

Rookie: Rangers 2, Guardians 3
Record: 36-24, division champion

The Rangers concluded the regular season with a loss but ran away with the division, besting the M’s by eight games. They’ll play the Diamondbacks (39-21) tomorrow in a one-and-done, and if victorious they’ll face either the Dodgers (40-20) or Giants (33-27) in the championship. 

Brock Porter’s final complex-league appearance found a middle ground: 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0 SO. He allowed his first homer, but the combined four BB/HBP were actually a mild improvement on what came before. He exits with a 7.36 ERA and bizarre .150/.393/.225 opposing line. 16 of 56 batters (29%) reached via walk or HBP., and 10 (19%) struck out. The question now is whether Porter remains in Arizona or is given the chance to continue pitching in real games. I don’t have a good feel for that. Obviously, the control is dire, and he’d probably necessitate a another reliever warming before he even took the mound, but he has always been extraordinarily hard to hit, so heading to Down East isn’t automatically a much more difficult situation.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBA
AA: Rocker
Hi-A: McCarty
Lo-A: TBA x 2

Five Years Ago Yesterday
I expanded on the organizational rankings provided by Fangraphs (12th) and Baseball America (28th). “The short, oversimplified version: FanGraphs acknowledges the lack of stars but credits the impressive depth. Baseball America acknowledges the lack of stars, glances askew at the depth, and decries all the injuries, which to be sure are numerous and gobsmacking.” I found a middle ground, predictably. Maybe too predictably. Fangraphs was an outlier on Solak, more confident than anyone I can recall that he’d become an everyday player, and that impression had an outsize effect on the rankings. Using the value system assigned to scouting grades, I found that decreasing him from a 50 to a 45 dropped the entire system from 12th to 17th. Regarding Baseball America, I felt the system had improved from a nadir of circa 2017, so if the Rangers were 28th in 2019, what were they then?

Texas’s top 17 picks have signed. Unsigned are #18 RHP Kadyn Leon, #19 Iowa LHP Cade Obermuller, and #20 C Mac Rose. The Rangers went well over slot to signed 5th-rounder Devin Fitz-Gerald and also spent $350,000 on 11th-round LHP Dalton Pence. As best as I can tell, they have very little extra money to entice Obermuller, who was ranked much higher on prospect boards than where he was eventually picked.

I had an idea that Kumar Rocker might reach AA this season after working his way through Down East and then Hickory, where he was stationed before the injury. Texas’s idea is to put him in AA now. Interesting timing. He’s scheduled to pitch Friday, joined by rehabbing 3B Josh Jung. Probably as good a day as any to go see a game if you’re in the neighborhood.

I also had an idea that Dane Dunning wouldn’t need more than one rehab appearance after I saw him on Saturday. He’s been activated, and Gerson Garabito was optioned.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 7, @ Albuquerque (COL) 6
Round Rock: 14 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 13 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Record: 12-10, 2 GB, 49-47 overall

SP Tim Brennan: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 55 P / 34 S, 3.48 ERA
3B Ezequiel Duran: 2-4, HR (2), BB, SB (5), .209/.243/.373
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, BB, .277/.363/.385
C Sam Huff: 3-5, 2B, .250/.324/.439
1B Davis Wendzel: 2-4, BB, .295/.391/.500
DH Blaine Crim: 2-5, 2B, .252/.359/.396

I mentioned yesterday that Ezequiel Duran’s exit velocities were slightly down in AAA. Last night’s 111.5 MPH, 441′ homer will help.

Six liners, five flies, just one one grounder, and one strikeout in Albuquerque from Tim Brennan. A recipe for disaster? Actually no, as the hardest-hit ball was the grounder, and the rest was a mix of singles and outs. The Express have closed the division gap from six games to two in four days.

AA: Frisco 5, Tulsa (LAD) 4
Frisco: 10 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-9, 1 GB, 58-34 overall

SP Dane Acker: 5 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 79 P / 44 S, 3.72 ERA
RP Robby Ahlstrom: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.01 ERA
3B Cody Freeman: 1-3, HR (11), BB, .273/.328/.455
RF Abimelec Ortiz: 2-4, HR (6), .211/.282/.341
C Scott Kapers: 1-4, HR (2), .121/.167/.333

Abimelec Ortiz snapped a 23-game homerless streak. Obviously, power largely defines his prospect status, but he did bat a reasonable .269/.348/.333 in that dry spell.

Hi-A: suspended

They’ll finish today. Greenville leads 5-4 in the 8th. Sebastian Walcott is 3-4 with his ninth homer and 13th steal.

Lo-A: Down East 3, Fayetteville (HOU) 6
Down East: 7 hits, 5 walks, 18 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 10-15, 6.5 GB, 45-45 overall

SP Izack Tiger: 4 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 69 P / 43 S, 2.41 ERA
RP Alberto Mota: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.21 ERA
C Julian Brock: 1-4, 2B, BB, .214/.299/.317
1B Arturo Disla: 2-2, HR (10), BB, .279/.358/.429

Adonis Villavicencio entered the 9th with a one-run lead, but his first four opponents reached safely, and all would score. Arturo Disla is the fifth Ranger to reach ten homers, following Gleider Figuereo (18), Sandro Fabian (12), Alejandro Osuna (12), and Cody Freeman (11).

Today’s Starters
AAA: White
AA: Garcia
Hi-A: Bratt
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
“FanGraphs and Baseball America re-ranked teamfarm systems. FanGraphs placed the Rangers an optimistic 12th, while the venerable BA has them all the way down at 28th. That’s a two with an eight after it.”

Texas’s A-Level Affiliates Switch Again
Me, May 2023: “Unlike so many moves of yore (‘South Atlantic’ teams in New Jersey, western Kentucky, northern Ohio), relocation to Spartanburg doesn’t create a scheduling headache. Spartanburg could conceivably rejoin high-A, creating a rival just down the road in Greenville, and Hickory would fit comfortably in the low-A Carolina League if desired.”

I can’t remember if someone else floated the idea or it just popped into my head, but in any case, the new Texas affiliate in Spartanburg (Hub City) will indeed become a member of the high-A South Atlantic League in 2025, while the Crawdads drop to low-A, where they played from 1993 through 2019. While Spartanburg proper actually has a smaller population than Hickory, the general area has more people (although not by a huge margin). The distance between Texas’s A-level affiliates will decrease from 260 to 90. Hickory will lose nearby rivals Asheville, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro but gain Kannapolis. Hub City has a natural rival in Greenville; per the linked story, they’ll meet 24 times next season.

As for Kinston, once again losing MLB-affiliated baseball, I wrote about that situation last May. To my eyes (which don’t have a law degree but frequently peruse contracts), the Rangers lease with Kinston appeared very easy to break. Kinston was also likely facing a massive capital outlay to bring the stadium up to required standards, and I wondered whether that would be a worthwhile use of public funds. Asheville recently approved $38.5 million in renovations to McCormick Field. Modesto, a much larger city, will be losing its low-A club because of a purported $32 million in needed park improvements.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 8, @ Albuquerque (COL) 7
Round Rock: 10 hits, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 5 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 11-10, 3 GB, 48-47 overall

SP Adrian Sampson: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 71 P / 38 S, 5.83 ERA
RP Chase Lee: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.86 ERA
3B Ezequiel Duran: 1-5, HR (1), .190/.215/.317
RF Sandro Fabian: 1-5, HR (12), .285/.353/.480
1B Blaine Crim: 3-4, HR (8), .249/.358/.393
LF Trevor Hauver: 1-3, HR (4), BB, .194/.325/.208

I’m glad I’m not reporting this from Albuquerque/Colorado’s perspective, mainly for how this specific game transpired, but also, imagine covering the Rockies. Down two in the 9th, Jax Biggers singled. With one out, Ezequiel Duran barely beat out a potential double-play grounder, and CF Greg Jones couldn’t execute a sliding catch of Andrew Knapp’s two-out shallow fly. Up stepped Sandro Fabian, who smacked a very mid-mid fastball 441 feet for a go-ahead two-run homer.

Trevor Hauver hit an inside-the-park homer. Hauver is, shall we say, not famous for his speed, but his liner to center eluded a diving CF Greg Jones and dribbled to the 428′-deep triangular cut-out.

Ezequiel Duran isn’t forcing a return to Arlington yet. Compared to his MLB figures, his exit velocity is down and his grounder rate is up. That’s probably just sample size. Some actual issues are swinging and missing first pitches at more than double the league rate (17% vs. 8%), and, not coincidentally, a 3% walk rate.

The Isotopes are 36-61. Until I read this article ($ link), I didn’t realize Albuquerque hadn’t posted a winning season since 2013. All but one of those seasons were as a Colorado affiliate. That’s hard to do. (Spanning over five decades, no Texas full-season affiliate has more than six consecutive losing seasons.) Some organizations value winning in the minors more than others, but you’d think a minor league team would occasionally finish above .500 simply by accident. Losing that consistently takes diligence. While it’s understandable that the Rockies would have trouble recruiting AAA pitching depth, they’re not alone in this regard, and fellow thin-air squads at El Paso, Reno, and Las Vegas have been competitive (Salt Lake is on a five-year losing streak).

AA: Frisco 5, Tulsa (LAD) 0
Frisco: 7 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 13-9, 2 GB, 57-34 overall

SP Cody Bradford: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 22 P / 17 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Ben Anderson: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 4.09 ERA
RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 1.79 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.49 ERA
2B Max Acosta: 1-3, HR (4), .262/.324/.367
1B Josh Hatcher: 2-4, HR (8), .288/.330/.431
C Cooper Johnson: 1-2, HR (8), BB, .241/.342/.466

Cody Bradford’s second mound appearance since early April went swimmingly. Bradford tossed an inning in Arizona last Friday. He and his three new besties combined to shut out the team scoring a league-high 5.4 runs per game.

Hi-A: Hickory 7, Greenville (BOS) 5
Hickory: 5 hits, 10 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 14-11, 1.5 GB, 42-49 overall

SP Aidan Curry: 6 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 81 P / 56 S, 6.95 ERA
SS Sebastian Walcott: 1-5, HR (8), .242/.336/.415
C Ian Moller: 1-3, BB, 2 SB (11), .232/.362/.304

Sebastian Walcott untied the game in the 7th with a three-run homer.

Ian Moller has reached safely in 14 consecutive games (.349/.500/.442).

Aidan Curry allowed two homers but on the whole has slowly rounded into better form lately, particularly tamping down on excess walks. He could very well be someone whose end-of-season stats inspire groans but is actually on the upswing.

Lo-A: Down East 2, Fayetteville (HOU) 1 (10)
Down East: 7 hits, 3 walks, 17 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 3 walks, 16 strikeouts
Record: 10-14, 6.5 GB, 45-44 overall

SP Paul Bonzagni: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 SO, 51 P / 38 S, 3.90 ERA
RP Luke Savage: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 4.94 ERA
RP Bryan Magdaleno: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2.00 ERA
2B Echedry Vargas: 3-5, 3B, 2 SB (18), .268/.322/.432
3B Esteban Mejia: 1-4, HR (2), .219/.313/.384

A 2nd-inning single quickly erased any hope of Down East’s second no-hitter in two weeks, but Paul Bonzagni exceeded his previous high in strikeouts by three despite facing only 16 batters. Singles by Echedry Vargas and Danyer Cueva in the 10th plated the winner.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Brennan
AA: Garcia
Hi-A: Rosario
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
A slow day. Ten years ago, Texas traded reliever Joaquim Soria for pitching prospects Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel. Neither would pitch in Arlington but would be included in packages for Yovani Gallardo and Cole Hamels, respectively, both crucial to Texas’s mid-2010s success. Knebel is currently with AAA Charlotte, while Thomson has spent the past four seasons in Mexico.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 4, Oklahoma City (LAD) 0
Round Rock: 8 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 10-10, 4 GB, 47-47 overall

SP Jack Leiter: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 81 P / 48 S, 3.59 ERA
RP Steven Jennings: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 6.00 ERA
RP Matt Festa: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 4.26 ERA
RP Aidan Anderson: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.50 ERA
SS Davis Wendzel: 2-4, 2B, SB (3), .286/.379/.505
DH Sam Huff: 1-3, BB, .248/.325/.441
1B Blaine Crim: 1-3, BB, SB (5), .243/.354/.379
RF Kellen Strahm: 1-2, BB

Jack Leiter had a pretty good day in his first appearance since July 5th. The fastball constituted an unusually high 64% of his pitches, and he missed ten bats with it. Control was an occasional issue; he tended to miss glove-side, a persistent problem in 2022-2023. He also offered more curves (11) than any other secondary and tallied three more swinging strikes. Only one of ten balls in play was hit hard, a high fly for an easy out. The hits, all singles, came on a bloop, a medium-hard grounder, and an slow grounder.

Since rejoining the Express in mid-May, Leiter has a 4.10 ERA (park-adjusted league average is 5.32), an opposing line of .248/.359/.362, a 15% walk/HBP rate and 30% SO rate. Contra yesterday, his fastball hasn’t been an especially virulent bat-misser during this time, with a dead-average 25% whiff rate on swings and 12% overall. Opponents aren’t hitting it nearly as hard, however, slugging .436 on contact compared to a league average of .636.

Kellen Strahm saw his first action in AAA after being promoted two days earlier. Texas’s 2019 5th-rounder had spent the past two-plus seasons and 284 games in Frisco, batting .265/.371/.373 and spending a plurality of his time in center.

AA: Frisco 1, @ Wichita (MIN) 2
Frisco: 7 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 3 walks, 3 strikeouts
Record: 12-9, 2 GB, 56-34 overall

SP Winston Santos: 4 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 HBP, 2 SO, 70 P / 42 S, 5.40 ERA
RP Tyler Owens: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.43 ERA
CF Alejandro Osuna: 1-4, HR (3), .313/.380/.609
C Liam Hicks: 1-3, BB, .264/.369/.361

Winston Santos’ first six batters included three HBPs and a four-pitch walk. Seeing an 0.2 in the innings column wouldn’t have surprised, but he survived that inning and faced the minimum over the next three.   

Hi-A: Hickory 5, Greensboro (PIT) 2
Hickory: 9 hits, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 13-11, 1.5 GB, 41-49 overall

SP Ryan Lobus: 6 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 63 P / 45 S, 3.78 ERA
C Tucker Mitchell: 2-3, 2 BB, .225/.321/.394
SS Sebastian Walcott: 3-4, BB, SB (12), .243/.338/.408
CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, .258/.308/.335
LF Yosy Galan: 1-4, HR (8), .184/.287/.349

A master of efficiency, Ryan Lobus worked through the order the first time on just 25 pitches and a second with a total of 58.

In additional to his plate heroics, Sebastian Walcott made a snazzy relay throw to nab Mitch Jebb at third. The speedy Jebb had grounded sharply down the right field line to Quincy Scott. Walcott is hitting .318/.388/.500 in July.

C/1B Tucker Mitchell is back in Hickory after a seven-week injury absence and two-plus weeks of obliterating youngsters in Arizona (.390/.468/.732).

Lo-A: Down East 0, @ Delmarva (BAL) 2
Down East: 3 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 9-14, 6.5 GB, 44-44 overall

SP Jose Gonzalez: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 51 P / 38 S, 2.23 ERA
RP Victor Simeon: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.79 ERA
RP Willian Bormie: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.46 ERA
2B Chandler Pollard: 1-3, BB, SB (28), .232/.312/.284

Game time: one hour, 59 minutes. Several Wood Ducks pitched well, but the offense hit five balls out of the infield.

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Short-season Spokane clinched the first-half division title with a 5-4 win over Everett. Daniel Robert pitched the last two innings. The baby Rangers also clinched with a 19-9 record. “Demarcus Evans’ last two years: 99.2 innings, 45 hits, 70 walks, 178 strikeouts.”

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 2, Oklahoma City (LAD) 1 (10)
Round Rock: 5 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 2 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 9-10, 5 GB, 46-47 overall

SP Tyler Mahle: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 46 P / 28 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Dane Dunning: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Grant Wolfram: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 3.26 ERA
RP Grant Anderson: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 2.12 ERA
3B Davis Wendzel: 1-3, BB, .277/.375/.495
1B Blaine Crim: 1-3, 2B, BB, .242/.353/.379
C Matt Whatley: 1-4, HR (4), .198/.293/.370

OKC scored the game’s first run in the 10th. With the gift-runner aboard, Matt Whatley hit a pitch 108.7 MPH, harder than any of his previous 279 contacts in Round Rock. It carried the wall at an 18-degree angle, tied with six others for the lowest-angled homer by an Express hitter during the past three seasons.

As for the rehabbers, Tyler Mahle had a shaky 2nd, unable to control much and reaching at least three balls to four of five hitters. The other innings were fine. Dane Dunning’s velocity was down perhaps half a tick, but otherwise from my viewpoint he could have pitched in Arlington.

Facing the Express was recently optioned Bobby Miller, who after a sparkling rookie season has had trouble throwing strikes but landing mid-mid when he does. Round Rock was patient but couldn’t take genuine advantage of his in-zone offerings outside of Blaine Crim’s double.

AA: Frisco 1, @ Wichita (MIN) 4
Frisco: 4 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 7 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 12-8, 1 GB, 56-33 overall

SP Emiliano Teodo: 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 74 P / 40 S, 1.77 ERA
RP Reid Birlingmair: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.95 ERA
RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 1.87 ERA
RF Alejandro Osuna: 1-3, 2B, BB, .317/.388/.583
DH Liam Hicks: 1-3, 2B, BB, .264/.367/.361

Emiliano Teodo is known for the occasional control lapse, but not since last June had his total of walks and hit batters exceeded his strikeouts by three.

SP Josh Stephan has been shut down for a few weeks with elbow inflammation per local reports.

Hi-A: Hickory 7, Greensboro (PIT) 3
Hickory: 10 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 12-11, 2.5 GB, 40-49 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 74 P / 46 S, 3.10 ERA
RP Jackson Kelley: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.74 ERA
DH Cam Cauley: 2-4, BB, .242/.293/.403
RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-5, 2B, .220/.294/.315
CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, 2 2B, SB (27), .253/.304/.332

Kohl Drake has been terrific in three of four starts.

Cam Cauley missed a week (although he wasn’t IL’ed) and has only DH’ed since. Anthony Gutierrez has matched last year’s doubles total of 11 in 24 fewer games. He’s still seeking his first homer.

Lo-A: Down East 5, @ Delmarva (BAL) 3
Down East: 11 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 9-13, 6.5 GB, 44-43 overall

SP David Davallilo: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 71 P / 44 S, 1.82 ERA
RP Izack Tiger: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.45 ERA
RP Alberto Mota: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.75 ERA
C Julian Brock: 1-4, 2B, BB, .216/.297/.318
DH Arturo Disla: 4-5, HR (9), .278/.353/.421
LF Jojo Blackmon: 1-2, 3 BB, .169/.257/.285

Izack Tiger had been starting after missing two months with elbow inflammation, but he made his first relief outing last night and retired the side on eight pitches.

Speedy Chandler Pollard has dabbled in center this season. I couldn’t speak to his level of comfort out there, but in the 9th, he and SS Echedry Vargas had a scary collision on a shallow fly in which communication was apparently either missing or unacknowledged. Both stayed in the game.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Leiter
AA: Santos
Hi-A: Lobus
Lo-A: TBA (Gonzalez, maybe)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Nick Solak, Scott Heineman, and Patrick Wisdom homered for Nashville. “I expect Scott Heineman to make his MLB debut in September, perhaps even earlier. He’s 27 in a few months and enjoying the best stretch of his professional life. It’s getting time to find out what he has to offer.” Heineman would in fact reach the Majors 13 days later and single twice in a 5-4 win.

Ten years ago, I watched Aaron Poreda reach 100-101 MPH a few times in Round Rock (the stadium gun once read 103, but I couldn’t find a scout gun that high.) I’d seen him in the 90-96 range earlier that season, and his MLB fastball average was 95.4. Nine days later, he would throw his final pitch in the United States. He spent 2015-2016 in Japan, never returning stateside.

Draft
I summarized (with video for many players) Texas’s picks in rounds 3-20 in a separate post.

Rehab
In Arizona, Cody Bradford threw a spotless inning with one strikeout. Kumar Rocker followed with two innings, two hits, a run, a walk, and three strikeouts. Unfortunately, Rocker followed that with an additional inning of five runs and five hits. I wouldn’t worry. One, it’s just AZ, and he’s just getting in the work. Two, four of the hits were grounders, and his control was fine. Some folks in attendance say he touched 100. Two days ago, Brock Porter lasted 2.2 innings while allowing a hit, walking three, and hitting two more. He’s walked or hit 30% of opposing batters in four outings. That’s a much greater concern than Rocker giving up a string of singles. Tyler Mahle and Dane Dunning are expected to pitch in Round Rock tonight.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, Oklahoma City (LAD) 10
Round Rock: 10 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 7 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 8-10, 6 GB, 45-47 overall

SP Owen White: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 83 P / 55 S, 5.52 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-5, SB (23), .281/.364/.393
C Sam Huff: 2-4, .247/.323/.442
3B Davis Wendzel: 1-4, HR (5), .276/.371/.500
1B Blaine Crim: 2-2, 2 BB, .241/.351/.376

While not victorious, several Express hitters got their licks in against rehabbing Clayton Kershaw. Among six balls hit at least 97 MPH were Davis Wendzel’s homer, both of Blaine Crim’s singles, and one of Huff’s. Kershaw didn’t exceed 91.7, but that’s nothing new.

Owen White threw his hardest four-seamer (96.7) and hardest sinker (97.0) of the year, and his seven strikeouts were a season-high. Run prevention remained close to typical, although he received help from neither his defense nor bullpen.

AA: Frisco 8, @ Wichita (MIN) 5
Frisco: 12 hits, 7 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 8 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 12-7, 0.5 GB, 56-32 overall

SP Ryan Garcia: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 77 P / 47 S, 4.11 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.70 ERA
RP Robby Ahlstrom: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 2.15 ERA
C Liam Hicks: 1-4, 2B, BB, .263/.366/.358
DH Cody Freeman: 1-2, 2 BB, .276/.332/.457
RF Josh Hatcher: 2-5, HR (7), .289/.331/.430
1B Abi Ortiz: 2-5, 2B, .213/.288/.339
3B Keyber Rodriguez: 1-2, 3 BB, .250/.306/.388

After four days off, Frisco headed all the way to Kansas for just three games. (Did you know Wichita is closer to Frisco than Corpus Christi?) Seven Riders reached safely at least twice. Abimelec Ortiz extended his hit streak to five and has 11 hits and three walks in that span. He hasn’t homered in over a month, but at least he’s getting on base. Ortiz retained his spot on the updated Baseball America top-30 rankings, if barely. Josh Hatcher also hadn’t homered in a month until last night. Between the two dingers, he’d batted .239/.287/.296. Hatcher doesn’t walk much, so his success at any given moment is tied pretty tightly to batting average.

Hi-A: Hickory 4, Greensboro (PIT) 2
Hickory: 6 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 11-11, 3 GB, 39-49 overall

SP DJ McCarty: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 6 SO, 76 P / 51 S, 3.69 ERA
RP Mitch Bratt: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.27 ERA

Sebastian Walcott reached down to lace a curve for a double, and Ian Moller doubled as well. Walcott has a 28% strikeout rate (understandable for his age and level), but I’ve seen several examples of impressive plate coverage. DJ McCarty has allowed a lone run in three straight starts. I don’t think I see the 2020 free agent as a 40-man addition this fall, but he’s once again put forward a nice season and will progress to the next level at some point.

Lo-A: Down East 3, @ Delmarva (BAL) 5
Down East: 8 hits, 8 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 8-13, 7.5 GB, 43-43 overall

SP Brayan Mendoza: 5 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 72 P / 49 S, 2.73 ERA
RP Paul Bonzagni: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 4.27 ERA
SS Echedry Vargas: 2-5, .263/.320/.428
1B Arturo Disla: 1-5, HR (8), .269/.347/.405
LF Wady Mendez: 2-2, 2 BB, .227/.337/.288

Josh Trentadue, who typically pitches several innings in a tandem role, lasted a season-low 0.2 innings and allowed three runs. Arturo Disla knocked his eighth homer but also grounded into three double plays.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Garabito (Mahle, Dunning)
AA: Teodo
Hi-A: Drake
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Frisco’s Brock Burke, James Jones, Jake Lemoine, and Emmanuel Clase nearly combined for a no-hitter. Arkansas batter Jordan Cowan singled down the line and was thrown out stretching for second by LF Brendon Davis. Burke was perfect through five. A few days earlier, Josh Jung headed to low-A Hickory, while 3B Sherten Apostel made room for him by jumping to high-A Down East. Reliever Joe Barlow was promoted to AAA. “Barlow will definitely be added to the 40-man roster this winter, but only if he doesn’t make his MLB debut first,” I wrote at the time. He would definitely not, and didn’t.

Day One Draft Results
1/30. C Malcolm Moore, Stanford, Age 21 (sophomore), 6’2″, 216, bats left, throws right
Ranked #31 draft prospect by Baseball America, #26 by MLB.com, #18 by Fangraphs

Most prognosticators had Moore as a Ranger in their final or near-final mocks, the other common choice being catcher Walker Janek, nabbed by the Astros two picks earlier. (I suppose we can follow both to see which organization “wins.”) He batted .311/.386/.564 in his freshman year and .255/.414/.553 as a sophomore. Moore improved his walk rate by 120% as a sophomore, and his contact also improved. Though his slugging percentage dropped, his isolated power actually improved. As I mentioned yesterday, Moore’s BABIP was a paltry .233, down from .339 the year before, but I haven’t come across anything to suggest he actually regressed at the plate. That seems to be mostly bad luck. Indeed, the bat drives much of his value, and he projects as someone with the skills to take advantage of his solid power.  Moore employs a very wide-open stance with multiple rapid-fire foot taps as his loads. We’ll see how that evolves as a professional. Traditionally, the Rangers have left draftees to their own devices in their rookie seasons unless they requested assistance.

Defense is why he fell to the Rangers. Reviews are lukewarm, generally noting the potential of being an adequate backstop but suggesting uncertainty of outcome. Hopefully, a year of professional instruction during what would ordinarily be his college junior season aids that task. If catching ultimately doesn’t pan out, the question becomes whether the bat will play at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

2/73. OF Dylan Dreiling, Tennessee, Age 21 (sophomore), 5,11″, 197, bats and throws left
Ranked #73 draft prospect by Baseball America, #72 by MLB.com, #83 by Fangraphs

After a promising freshman campaign, Dreiling truly blossomed as a sophomore, hitting .342/.459/.715 with 23 homers and 53 walks in 71 games. Notably, he played in a platoon role in 2023 (only 16 at-bats against lefties, no hits) but batted far better this season. Performing in critical moments on big stages won’t be an issue. He was named the College World Series MVP and homered in all three games of the finals (video of 1, 2, and 3). He has decent speed but didn’t take advantage of it on the bases. Texas didn’t draft him for his glove or arm. 69 of his 71 appearances this season were in left field, and reviews are subpar.  He projects as an all-around average LF if he reaches his potential.

Here’s the placements of everyone I mentioned yesterday:
18. Tampa Bay — SS Theodore Gillen
23. LA Dodgers — SS Kellon Lindsay
28. Houston — C Walker Janek
30. Texas — C Malcolm Moore
39. Washington — C Caleb Lomavita
40. Oakland — 3B Tommy White
51. Cincinnati — SS Tyson Lewis
56. Miami — SS Carter Johnson
Unpicked — RHP Dax Whitney
Unpicked — RHP William Schmidt (pulled name from draft to commit to LSU)

Buy or Sell?
Strange for an under-.500 club to be playing in what felt like a playoff atmosphere this weekend. For a while, Texas has been in a position of needing to win at least 60% of their games, probably more, in order to have a shot at the postseason. A 4-2 record on the road last week was pretty much a requirement, and the Rangers succeeded. Following yesterday’s win, I mentioned on social media that a .600 winning percentage would result in 86 wins, and .667 would mean 90. A win total in that range guarantees nothing but puts Texas in the conversation. Many responded positively, while others felt the hill too steep, and the Rangers would be better served by jettisoning tradable players.

On the one hand, 2023 is irrelevant in this context. The Rangers aren’t going to win any extra games by wearing gold-trimmed unis or flashing their rings at the opposition. On the other, this club was built to contend this season. Langford (and Carter) aside, it’s a mature, expensive squad. I think they deserve a chance, with the caveat that the chance involves a deluge of “now or never” games. That means something like a 5-2 record in the upcoming homestand against Baltimore and the White Sox. A negative record in that span probably signals the end, and Texas would have six days to engineer any deals.

Box Scores

AAA: wet

Reno says “postponed,” Round Rock says “canceled.” The teams don’t meet again, so I’m going with the latter. Owen White was spared the horror of starting twice in Reno.

AA: Frisco 7, NW Arkansas (KAN) 6
Frisco: 9 hits, 9 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 11-7, 1.5 GB, 55-32 overall

SP Dane Dunning: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 18 P / 13 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Tyler Owens: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.59 ERA
DH Liam Hicks: 2-5, .263/.365/.356
SS Max Acosta: 2-4, BB, 2 SB (16), .262/.325/.373
1B Josh Hatcher: 1-3, 2 BB, .287/.330/.419
C Cooper Johnson: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, .246/.349/.477

With one out in a tied bottom of the 9th, Max Acosta singled and stole second. NWA chose to walk Josh Hatcher despite an 0-1 count to set up a force and/or double play against Cooper Johnson. Johnson has the better OBP and slugging percentage, but the tactic is defensible under the circumstances. Johnson smacked a high fly that 2022 9th-overall selection Gavin Cross might have reached had he not misjudged its carry. The ball eluded Cross and bounced off the track for a game-winning double.

Hi-A: Hickory 4, @ Bowling Green (TAM) 7
Hickory: 7 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 10-11, 3.5 GB, 38-49 overall

SP Aidan Curry: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 74 P / 49 S, 7.34 ERA
RP Jackson Kelley: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2.81 ERA
RP Gavin Collyer: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.09 ERA
DH Cam Cauley: 1-5, HR (6), .242/.292/.408
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-5, HR (5), .200/.235/.446

Ouch. In the 11th, Gleider Figuereo hit a two-run homer, but Bowling Green responded with a one-out run-scoring single and a game-ending grand slam from Brock Jones off Michael Brewer.

Lo-A: Down East 1, Salem (BOS) 2
Down East: 6 hits, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 8-12, 7.5 GB, 43-42 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 4 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 58 P / 40 S, 3.10 ERA
RP Willian Bormie: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 3.53 ERA
SS Chandler Pollard: 2-3, 3B, .234/.313/.287

A couple of early solo homers would suffice for Salem. Down East had two runners after the 4th, both of whom were caught stealing.

Today’s Starters
No games until Friday.

Five Years Ago Yesterday
The Pacific Coast League exceeded the previous year’s homer total with roughly 48 games remaining on each team’s schedule. AAA was using the MLB ball for the first time instead of one specially manufactured for the minors. Folks had always speculated the MLB ball was livelier, and folks were right.

Draft Preview
After six seasons with a first pick in the 2-15 range, the Rangers will watch 29 other clubs make a selection before them. Such is the cost of a World Series championship. As such, I’ll confess that my draft preview is minimally informed by personal observations, but I greatly enjoy reviewing potential picks for future reference, so I’ve prepared summaries of anyone who has appeared as a Texas pick in mock drafts from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, the Athletic, ESPN, or Fangraphs.

C Malcolm Moore, Stanford
Athletic mock 3.0 (Keith Law) (italics = most recent)
ESPN mock 3.0 (Kiley McDaniel)
Baseball America mock 5.0, 4.0
MLB.com mock 16 May (Jim Callis)

Almost everyone had Texas picking this draft-eligible sophomore a week ago; Baseball American and both MLB Pipeline writers have since decided on a different catcher. Moore batted .255/.414/.553 in 2024 including 16 homers and more walks than strikeouts but also a .233 average on balls in play (excluding homers). The experts believe back luck played a major role in that disturbingly low figure, as the underlying metrics were sound.

Reports on his defense are mixed, none especially favorable. My strong preference (and it’s truly just a preference, not backed by analysis) is for near-certainty that a drafted catcher can stick behind the plate; otherwise, I’m thinking mostly on the bat.

C Walker Janek, San Houston
Baseball America mock 7.0, 6.0 (Carlos Collazo)
MLB.com mock 14 July, 4 July (Jonathan Mayo), 14 July, 11 July, 20 June (Callis)

Here’s your defensive catcher, if you like, although even his more positive reviews note improvement needed on the receiving side to match the terrific arm. Still, he would appear to be a lock at the position. Hitting reviews are slightly muted compared to Moore; there is hope of average contact and power in the Majors. He seems someone with a strong likelihood of panning out as at least a backup.

C Caleb Lomavita, California
Baseball America mock 3.0

Most publications have Lomavita selected before Texas’s #30 pick. He’s gotten away with swing-happiness in college because of his contact skill and growing power, but the worry is pro pitchers will take advantage of his approach. Defensive reviews indicate he’s still growing into the position but should be no worse that average.

SS Kellon Lindsay, Hardee HS, Wauchula, FL
Athletic mock 2.0
Baseball America mock 1.0
MLB.com mock 27 June (Callis)

Early mock drafts linked the Rangers to several high school shortstops, later shifting en masse to college backstops. The Rangers haven’t led off with a youngster since 2018, but  they also haven’t picked in this range since 2017. Defensive reviews vary, with some suggesting above-average potential, some projecting a move to center to take advantage of his superior speed. He lacks pop but in an ideal world would develop into a leadoff hitter.

SS Carter Johnson, Oxford HS, Oxford, AL
ESPN mock 1.0

SS Theodore Gillen, Westlake HS, West Lake Hills, TX
Baseball America mock 2.0

SS Tyson Lewis, Millard West HS, Omaha, NE
Athletic mock 1.0

Three more young shortstops. Johnson’s reviews indicate a bat-first prospect who will likely move to second or third down the line. Gillen’s bat draws raves, but fallout from a 2022 shoulder surgery makes shortstop problematic, although his other skills point to a future at second. Still, Fangraphs rates him the draft’s top high school talent. Lewis has good speed on a quality frame. Hitting reviews aren’t as glowing as Gillen but still solid, and like the others, sticking at short isn’t a great bet.

3B Tommy White, LSU
ESPN mock 2.0

Batted .355/.419/.704 with 75 homers across three seasons. He has terrific power, obviously, but isn’t an all-or-nothing hitter. White will have to tone down his tendency to chase as a pro. He could end up at first, but if he reaches his batting potential that won’t be an issue.  

RHP William Schmidt Catholic HS, Baton Rouge, LA
MLB.com mock 30 May, 3 May  (Mayo)

RHP Dax Whitney, Blackfoot HS, Blackfoot, ID
Fangraphs.com mock 1.0 (Eric Longenhagen)

We conclude with two high school pitchers. Texas’s fortune with young high-pick arms is limited, shall we say, but again, this is both a lower pick than in recent years and also a weaker-than-usual draft per the experts. Schmidt is a skinny 6’4” with a mid-90s fastball and massive curve. As is often the case, the change lags because he hasn’t needed it. As for Whitney, my first reaction was “Idaho? Really?”, but reviews are promising. Along with a low-90s fastball, Whitney possesses two worthy breakers and more feel for a change than typical at his age. Longenhagen of Fangraphs should have another mock today.

Futures Game
Three Rangers made meaningful appearances in the 2024 Futures Game. Emiliano Teodo drew the start and tossed two perfect innings on just 14 pitches. He missed five bats (four sliders, one change*). His sinking fastball ranged from 95 to 99 with 17-18 inches of horizontal break, which is heroic. The slider topped at 89.

Winston Santos needed 24 pitches for his one inning, allowing an unearned run on a single and error plus a walk. He concluded his effort with a miss on a 97 MPH fastball. The heater ranged 97-98 with four misses, the slider 84-87 with one swinging strike, and he added one change* at 90.

Sebastian Walcott was 0-2 but provided the second-hardest ball in play of the game, a 106 MPH grounder that shortstop Aidan Miller couldn’t handle.

* Statcast often has trouble with “new” pitchers and lists Teodo’s and Santos’s lone pitches at 90 MPH as sinkers. They’re changes ,best as I can tell.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, @ Reno (ARI) 2
Round Rock: 5 hits, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 8-9, 6 GB, 45-46 overall

SP Tom Brennan: 4 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 51 P / 33 S, 3.63 ERA

Leave it to the man more dependent on weak contact than anyone on the squad to handle Reno in the mountains for a while. Tim Brennan had missed one bat in each of his previous two starts. He totaled five yesterday. Chase Lee, rehabbing Austin Pruitt, and Grant Anderson spread around eight runners in five innings of scoreless relief, but the offense couldn’t break through. Lee has walked seven in seven innings since rejoining the Express, unusual for him. 

AA: Frisco 9, NW Arkansas (KAN) 10
Frisco: 15 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 10-7, 2.5 GB, 54-32 overall

SP Dane Acker: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 2 SO, 81 P / 44 S, 3.88 ERA
CF Alejandro Osuna: 2-5, BB, .354/.415/.667
1B Abi Ortiz: 2-3, 2B, 2 BB, .209/.286/.333
LF Aaron Zavala: 3-4, BB, .216/.326/.303
2B Max Acosta: 4-5, 2B, 3B, .258/.320/.371

A seemingly bland, decisive defeat turned wild late. Frisco trailed 7-1 entering the bottom of the 8th but had the tying run on 1st when the game ended despite allowing another three runs. Unfortunately some messy defense in the top of the 9th added three insurance runs that the Naturals would end up needing.

Abimelec Ortiz has back-to-back multi-hit nights. To give an idea of how his season has gone, he had one multi-hit game the entire month of June, and one in May. July is off to a fine start, however. Maybe no one in the system wants the upcoming four days off less than him.

Hi-A: Hickory 4, @ Bowling Green (TAM) 8
Hickory: 10 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 10-10, 2.5 GB, 38-48 overall

SP Alejandro Rosario: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 SO, 80 P / 55 S, 3.95 ERA
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-5, SB (1), .183/.222/.400
1B Quincy Scott: 2-3, 3B, 2 BB, SB (5), .209/.300/.277

Alejandro Rosario’s strikeout rate is higher in three high-A starts than his time in Down East (43% vs. 37%), although his walk rate at the higher level has declined from elite to average. Rosario had only thrown 11 pitches in the 5th and 80 for the night when removed, seemingly indicating a fairly firm limit on his workload. He hasn’t thrown more than 84 all season.

Lo-A: Down East 4, Salem (BOS) 5 (8)
Down East: 6 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 7-11, , 42-41 overall

SP Paul Bonzagni: 4 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 58 P / 34 S, 4.35 ERA
RP Josh Trentadue: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 4.14 ERA
CF Jojo Blackmon: 1-4, HR (4), .169/.245/.290
C Jesus Lopez: 1-3, BB, .254/.312/.373

Salem outscored Down East in extras (doubleheaders are scheduled for seven innings), propelled by an error and fielder’s choice that produced no out.

Lo-A: Down East 4, Salem (BOS) 0 (7) (NO-HITTER)
Down East: 6 hits, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 0 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 8-11, 7.5 GB, 43-41 overall

SP Izack Tiger: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 63 P / 43 S, 2.63 ERA
RP Adonis Villavicencio: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1.29 ERA
C Julian Brock: 2-3, .218/.296/.319

Izack Tiger and Adonis Villavicencio combined on a seven-inning no-hitter. They were making only their third and fourth career appearances in full-season ball, respectively. Both pitchers walked the first batter faced and then picked him off. Down East doesn’t broadcast on MiLB.tv, but the Rangers provided some video.

Today’s Starters
AAA: White
AA: TBA
Hi-A: Curry
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas traded reliever Peter Fairbanks to Tampa Bay for IF/OF Nick Solak. Coming off elbow surgery, Fairbanks gained instant attention in Spring Training with a 100 MPH fastball, and he advanced from high-A to the Majors in a scant two months. At the time of the trade, he sported a 37% strikeout rate but a 5.45 ERA across all levels, as the contact batters managed to make tended to be noisy. Solak would make his MLB debut a month later after a .348/.386/.653 showing for AAA Nashville.