SP Robert Dugger: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 89 P / 52 S, 5.19 ERA RP Lucas Jacbosen: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 4.32 ERA RP Justin Leone: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 1.59 ERA LF Rafael Ortega: 2-6, 2B, HR (2), .229/.325/.371 DH JP Martinez: 2-4, HR (3), SB (13), .347/.473/.520
Albuquerque plated a runner in the top half of the 11th, but Rafael Ortega responded with a two-run homer.
OF Clint Frazier signed with the White Sox. The Rangers had released him earlier in the week. Ortega is who I expect the Rangers to call up if they need a different fourth/fifth outfielder.
SP Ryan Garcia: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 83 P / 50 S, 4.11 ERA RP Alex Speas: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Triston Polley: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.68 ERA DH Luisangel Acuna: 3-5, 2B, .313/.356/.438 3B Thomas Saggese: 2-4, 2B, 3B, BB, .209/.267/.284 2B Jax Biggers: 1-2, HR (2), 3 BB, .161/.333/.290 C Scott Kapers: 2-5, HR (2), .324/.359/.647
The four games the Riders have played in this wackaloon environment already feels like a dozen, and they have 11 more this season. Frisco led 8-0 after the 1st and 12-0 through four, after which Amarillo once again initiated a comeback that fell short this time. Triston Polley made amends after being hammered in the Tuesday loss.
Last April was Thomas Saggese’s worst month of the season by a fair margin. Maybe he’s just a slow starter.
Lefty reliever Josh Smith has joined Frisco, while righty Ricky Devito was transferred to Arizona.
Hi-A: wet again
Four of seven scheduled contests between the Crawdads and Dash have been rained out. Like last night, this one won’t be rescheduled. They’ll attempt a doubleheader to make up a rainout from opening weekend.
Lo-A: Down East 7, at Fayetteville (HOU) 3 Down East: 10 hits, 4 walks, 15 strikeouts Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts Record: 10-8, 0.5 GB
SP Brock Porter: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 58 P / 33 S, 2.25 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Jackson Leath: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.42 ERA 2B Cam Cauley: 2-5, 3B, .200/.254/.309 1B Abi Ortiz: 2-4, HR (2), .277/.340/.447 DH Tucker Mitchell: 2-4, HR (1), .444/.543/.583 LF Jojo Blackmon: 1-3, HR (2), BB, .088/.279/.294 RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-5, SB (7), .170/.371/.170
Ignoring a jittery debut when he couldn’t clear the 1st, Porter has an 40% strikeout rate but still sports an 18% BB/HBP rate. While I haven’t seen enough this season to know how strong a role his changeup is playing, it struck me as a pitch that few low-A hitters would be able to manage. In the two innings I semi-watched last night, the announcers mentioned a fastball in the 94-95 range. In Surprise, I saw what was apparently a tired-armed outing, when he topped at 93 and sat 90-91.
Jojo Blackmon is on a curious quest to produce a solid OPS while batting under .100.
The Jacksons combined for two scoreless innings. Leath, 2021’s 12th-rounder out of Tennessee, allowed a memorable walk-off grand slam in his second pro outing last summer. This April, he’s limited opponents to a .182/.308/.273 line and kept the ball in the park.
Today’s Starters AAA: Winn AA: Leiter Hi-A: Kindreich / Mejia listed, but the two rainouts were of Bratt and Rocker Lo-A: TBD
Five Years Ago Yesterday Frisco relievers John Fasola and Adam Parks tossed scoreless innings in their first post-TJ appearances.
Walk+HBP rates in the first month of full-season minor leagues:
Compared to just four years ago, every team is drawing an additional walk or HBP every game. Only two of 120 teams (AAA Memphis, Lo-A Ft. Myers) have a BB/HBP rate below 10%, which used to be the rule of thumb for average control. AAA Sacramento, which hosted Round Rock earlier, has the worst rate of 18.6% (7.5 per game).Anecdotally, while out in Surprise, I felt that games were dragging more than usual. Relievers struggled to find the plate, hitters kept taking, and fielders had their hands on their knees, waiting on a chance to interact with the proceedings.I hadn’t been there since 2019, so I couldn’t say for sure. Now I can. Control has been worse in the minors this season even compared to the immediate post-covid era.
SP Kyle Cody: 4 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 4 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 64 P / 37 S, 6.35 ERA RP Taylor Hearn: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1.59 ERA CF JP Martinez: 3-5, SB (12), .338/.472/.479 SS Jonathan Ornelas: 0-2, 3 BB, .231/.412/.277 1B Blaine Crim: 1-3, 2B, BB, .290/.389/.435
Jonathan Ornelas returned after a five-game absence.
JP Martinez’s 12 steals are only two behind last year’s total of 14 despite fewer than half as many AAA games. He’s reaching base, especially first base, far more frequently than in 2022.
Hitting hard matters, but so do angles. Kyle Cody didn’t surrender much at high speed, but eight balls hit at favorable angles resulted in a homer, four singles, and a sac fly. Statcast was tipsy last night, according him some changeups that exceeded his fastball speeds.
Hickory and W-S already had two makeups from opening weekend scheduled, so yesterday’s rainout is gone for good.
Lo-A: Down East 5, at Fayetteville (HOU) 2 Down East: 8 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 4 hits, 6 walks, 8 strikeouts Record: 9-8, 1 GB
SP Dylan MacLean: 4.2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 4 BB, 3 SO, 72 P / 44 S, 4.15 ERA RP Jose Corniell: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 4.20 ERA DH Tucker Mitchell: 2-4, HBP, .438/.537/.500 RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-3, BB, SB (6), .143/.368/.143
Yeison Morrobel has drawn a walk or HBP in 11 of 14 games. Last night was his first multi-hit game; now, he’s seeking his first extra-base hit. Morrobel slugged .487 last year at the complex, so I expect he’ll get his share.
Today’s Starters AAA: Dugger AA: Garcia Hi-A: Rocker listed. Mitch Bratt was rained out last night, but Rocker and Winston Santos have been on a steady schedule with others filling gaps. Lo-A: Unlisted, but Friday has been Porter(house) night
Five Years Ago Yesterday I had an almost-four-year-old daughter. Down East OF Leody Taveras reached four times and stole two bases. Mike Matuella’s ERA ballooned to 10.35 after seven scored in 1.2 innings.
SP Cody Bradford: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 76 P / 57 S, 0.64 ERA RP Zack Littell: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA R JP Martinez: 1-3, 2 BB, .318/.464/.470 C Sam Huff: 3-5, .228/.308/.368 1B Blaine Crim: 2-3, HR (2), BB, .288/.382/.424
Another night, another magnificent Cody Bradford start. Fastballs accounted for 58% of Cody Bradford’s pitches, and seven of his ten swinging strikes were fastballs. The Isotopes swung at 26 but put only two in play.
I haven’t studied closely enough to say for sure, but last night contained more low-middle changeup locations than I’m used to seeing. The change isn’t a pure chase pitch — he will certainly throw it for strikes — but the concentration in that area seemed off. Am I being nitpicky? Yes, but I do think there’s going to come a day where he might actually allow multiple runs in one outing. Shocking, I know. Opponents are hitting only .183 when they make contact. That just can’t last.
In any case, Bradford is first in line for a rotation spot if a replacement is needed (despite his absence from the 40), and in most of the past dozen years, we’d probably be anticipating his MLB debut. Bradford has the misfortune of reaching maturity at the exact moment his club has its best top-to-bottom rotation in a long while. The likelihood of him replacing someone on the basis of effectiveness is close to zero. The “good” news is the operative word on the possibility of a rotation injury is more “when” than “if.” In the meantime, he just needs to press on.
Blaine Crim’s batted-ball data has been solid but very singles-oriented. Crim found the angle last night and moved a ball 417 feet through the air.
Zack Littell, a potential bullpen candidate, took care of the last seven outs on just 24 pitches, and he’s been darn near untouchable in 10.2 innings with Round Rock. His vertically oriented repertoire includes a riding fastball, slider, and occasional splitter. Littell’s fastball has averaged 92.7 MPH, down 1.5 from last year. His control is solid but homers have been a serious problem in the Majors.
SP Nick Krauth: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 63 P / 39 S, 2.12 ERA RP Hever Bueno: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA 2B Luisangel Acuna: 2-6, 2B, .320/.366/.453 LF Dustin Harris: 1-4, 2B, 2 BB, .228/.400/.421 DH Kellen Strahm: 2-5, BB, .155/.269/.190 SS Chris Seise: 2-4, BB, .324/.444/.541 C Scott Kapers: 1-5, HR (2), .313/.351/.656
Frisco lost a six-run lead Tuesday night, and as I exited the Dell Diamond last night, I saw that Amarillo had shaved three runs off Frisco’s 10-1 advantage. “Here we go again,” I half-joked. When I got home, I pulled up the box score, and… whew. Amarillo scored seven in the 8th off Ricky Devito (0.1 IP, 6 runners) and John Matthews (0.0 IP, two singles and an error on Luisangel Acuna). Marc Church stranded two runners and worked a clean 9th, but Jordan Lawlar singled in the gift-runner to lead off the 10th.
These things happen, especially in Amarillo, which serves as an an introduction to the AAA Pacific Coast League.
Evan Carter drew three walks.
Chris Seise batted .246/.319/.384 last year in high-A Hickory, not the kind of showing that insisted upon promotion, but Seise is 24 and in his seventh pro season. Unexpectedly, April is going to be the best month of his pro career. After years of hideous injury luck, is he finally establishing himself as a prospect? I don’t really know. Seise has a 36% strikeout rate but is batting .571 and slugging .952 when he makes contact. That seems untenable. For the time being, I just want to enjoy his success, and we’ll see how he proceeds.
SP Josh Stephan: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 8 SO, 80 P / 55 S, 0.50 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.25 ERA RP Michael Brewer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.29 ERA RF Alejandro Osuna: 2-3, 2 2B, BB, SB (5), .289/.491/.395 CF Daniel Mateo: 1-3, HR (2), .263/.271/.439 LF Marcus Smith: 1-2, 2 BB, 2 SB (4), .125/.382/.125
Josh Stephan: Cody Bradford in training? Stephan throws a little harder and relies more on his slider, but emphasis on strike-throwing and command is similar. Stephan signed as a free agent in 2020 out of South Grand Prairie.
I’ve seen Alejandro Osuna’s daffy line before. From early May through early June last year at Down East, he batted .290/.443/.461 with more walks than strikeouts. He has a good sense of the strike zone and ought to develop more power. Osuna stole 34 bases last year but was caught 18 times. Out in Surprise, he looked bigger to me than his listed 185 pounds. Expecting the steals to diminish isn’t unreasonable, although he’s contradicting that idea so far with five successes versus zero caught in 13 games.
Lo-A: Down East 8, at Fayetteville (HOU) 5 Down East: 5 hits, 10 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 11 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts Record: 8-8, 1 GB
SP Josh Gessner: 5 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 76 P / 45 S, 1.32 ERA RF Abi Ortiz: 1-4, HR (1), BB, .256/.333/.372 SS Danyer Cueva: 1-3, BB, SB (2), .240/.250/.340 DH Andres Mesa: 2-2, 2B, 2 BB
I mentioned yesterday that Danyer Cueva hadn’t drawn a walk this season. He has now, taking one with the bases-loaded early in the afternoon as a finished typing yesterday’s report. Josh Gessner, part of the Gibson/Kennedy trade, is off to a nice start, albeit with continued below-average control (13% BB/HBP rate). Hans Crouse, also part of that trade, is back in action for AAA Lehigh Valley after missing most of 2022. He’s posted a 2.89 ERA despite two homers and seven walks in 9.1 innings.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Jonathan Hernandez struck out nine and walked three but needed only 90 pitches to complete seven innings for high-A Down East.
So you want a new reliever? Let’s check out some candidates. First, from the 40:
Taylor Hearn has been fine if not exceptional. I expect he’d be better than the two outings that resulted in assignment to Round Rock, but whether he’d inspire confidence or queasiness is uncertain.
John King has shown good control but has been hit pretty hard, although most of the balls in play haven’t amounted to more than singles.
Joe Barlow’s opponents are hitting only .050/.050/.100 with a 25% K rate. His opposing average on balls in play is an impossibly low 0.67, but at every level including the Majors, Barlow has posted a low BABIP. Might as well not argue about regression at this point. His fastball still lags behind its 2021-2022 rate, averaging 92.6 overall and 93.1 in his most recent outing.
Yerry Rodriguez has been terrific. Only one dubious outing out of seven, a .121/.211/.152 line with a 37% strikeout rate, more swinging strikes with the fastball than last year, a ridiculously low (and surely unmaintainable) median exit velocity of 76 MPH.
Off the 40, Zack Littell (8.1 IP, five runners, 11 strikeouts) has been the best of the experienced offseason signings. But let’s talk about a potential home-grown option: Chase Lee.
Lee has a 1.54 ERA. Opponents are hitting only .209/.277/.279 with a 34% strikeout rate. He’s averaging nearly seven batters per outing, so he’s not a one-inning-and-done type. Call him up now, yes? Well, maybe.
Lee throws an upper-80s sinking fastball with varying degrees of run and a low-80s sweepy slider. Despite the high K rate, his swinging strike rate is an ordinary 11%, and last year’s in AAA was only 9%.
Despite a less than overpowering arsenal, batters hate swinging against him, perhaps because his fastball runs more like a reverse slider, and minor league hitters strongly prefer to attack a more mundane heater. Lee has a 25% called strike rate, highest on the team. Observe the take rate against him compared to all pitchers in Round Rock’s games so far:
21 of 47 batters have taken the first three pitches against Lee. He’s not running up a bunch of 3-0 counts. His walk rate is 6%, and his strike rate is 65%. Many hitters are napping their way into 1-2 counts and then taking groggy hacks at a slider with 15 inches of horizontal break.
The question is whether this translates to the Majors. I can’t imagine hitters will be that passive against someone who throws low-in-the-zone fastballs at 88-91 MPH. Lee works both sides of the plate, but his pitches sometimes tend to run in a worryingly narrow vertical range. Lee has endured two poor stretches as a pro, once closing out 2021 (he looked tired) and upon promotion to AAA. Fortunately, both were short, but during those periods, opponents were hitting off a tee.
Lee’s going to get a shot, and while I wouldn’t quite call him a finished product, he’s pretty much who he’s going to be. I don’t know if that shot should be now. If a change is coming, I’d be inclined to take Barlow or Rodriguez. Rodriguez is on his last option, and, somewhat like Josh Sborz, the Rangers need to decide whether he has a future in Arlington. Might as well take a chance while he’s hot. Regardless, the Rangers don’t have a anyone in AAA just sitting there waiting to dominate high-leverage situations in Arlington. He’d be a Ranger already. Texas’s bullpen is pretty blah overall, actualized in the form of three weeks of over-their-head performance and three days of mayhem. Any change effected by a call-up will be marginal.
SP John King: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 41 P / 24 S, 2.38 ERA RP Grant Anderson: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Chase Lee: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1.54 ERA RP Yerry Rodriguez: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1.93 ERA 3B Justin Foscue: 2-5, .254/.376/.451 1B Yoshi Tsutsugo: 3-5, 2B, 3B, .298/.437/.456
Round Rock won on a bases-loaded HBP near midnight after an 82-minute rain delay.
Texas released OF Clint Frazier. Frazier was batting .250/.350/.442, far better than last year in AAA, but he wasn’t really standing out and lacks a tool that might make him a bench asset. Texas also released lefty Bernardo Flores Jr. after three walk-filled appearances.
Another solid outing from White in the toughest destination for AA pitchers. Unfortunately, an attempt at more than six innings played out like the parent club’s issues the last two nights. Up 7-1, White allowed a single and his only walk (on four pitches) to open the 7th and was replaced by Tristen Polley, who retired one of four batters. High-leverage reliever Nick Starr fanned Jordan Lawler with a nasty righty-righty change but surrendered a game-tying homer in the 7th plus another homer and triple off the wall in the 8th.
In the lineup for the first time since a Friday HBP, Evan Carter homered.
SP Gavin Collyer: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 6 SO, 85 P / 55 S, 5.68 ERA RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 4.91 ERA CF Daniel Mateo: 2-4, 2B, SB (2), .259/.273/.389 SS Keyber Rodriguez: 2-3, 2B, .298/.313/.383
Winston Santos is why I tack HBPs onto control stats. He’s walked only four in 13 innings for an excellent 6% rate, but he’s hit six, so his combined BB/HBP rate is a not-so-excellent 16%. He plunked 12 last year in 108 innings. Pedro Payano would approve.
In the second game, Hickory played as home team in the makeup of an opening-weekend contest.
Lo-A: Down East 8, at Fayetteville (HOU) 1 Down East: 11 hits, 9 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 4 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 7-8, 2 GB
SP Joseph Montalvo: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 68 P / 43 S, 2.77 ERA RP Luis Ramirez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.86 ERA RF Yeison Morrobel: 1-3, 3 BB, SB (5), .103/.340/.103 C Ian Moller: 1-5, HR (1), .250/.308/.444 CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-3, BB, SB (5), .311/.360/.400 2B Cam Cauley: 2-5, SB (4), .163/.200/.256 SS Danyer Cueva: 2-5, 2 2B, .234/.229/.340 LF Jojo Blackmon: 0-2, 3 BB, SB (3), .065/.256/.194
Runs! By Down East!
The Wood Ducks have some flaky lines in the early going. Yeison Morrobel isn’t striking out excessively but has only four hits versus 13 walks. Jojo Blackmon: two hits, eight walks. Meanwhile, Danyer Cueva still seeks his first free pass and has an OBP below his batting average. Pretty all-around is young Anthony Gutierrez.
According to the Rangers themselves, 20-year-old Joseph Montalvo’s whiff rate (misses / swings) on sliders was 50%. Born in Puerto Rico, Montalvo attended high school in Florida and was Texas’ final pick of the 2021 draft.
Today’s Starters AAA: Bradford AA: Krauth Hi-A: Stephan Lo-A: Gessner
Five Years Ago Yesterday Hickory’s Tyler Phillips threw a seven-inning complete game on just 70 pitches. Joe Barlow whiffed four in two scoreless in the other half of the doubleheader.
SP Cole Winn: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 83 P / 61 S, 6.00 ERA 2B Justin Foscue: 1-4, 2B, BB, .242/.375/.455 C Sam Huff: 1-3, BB, .192/.283/.346 LF Clint Frazier: 3-4, 2B, HR (1), .250/.350/.442
By game score, yesterday was Cole Winn’s best AAA start since last June and third-best of 32 at the level. Notably, Winn completely ignored his slider and new cutter for a third straight outing. He’s also reduced, if not eliminated, the righty-righty changeup, leaving the curve as the near-exclusive secondary against right-handed batters. As far as I know, the slider has been part of his repertoire since before he was drafted, and while it’s graded behind the curve, it is by no means a “show me” pitch. Winn threw more sliders than curves in 2022 and had a 16% swinging strike rate, higher than any other pitch. We’ll see whether this is more workshopping (Winn has occasionally de- and re-emphasized particular pitches) or a perhaps permanent effort to improve control and command through simplification.
SP Jack Leiter: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 5 SO, 76 P / 41 S, 5.63 ERA RP Grant Wolfram: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Justin Slaten: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA DH Luisangel Acuna: 2-4, 2 SB (5), .323/.366/.462 LF Dustin Harris: 2-3, 2B, 3B, HBP, SB (4), .220/.375/.420
Jack Leiter walked three and retired one batter in a 30-pitch 3rd.
The good news is Leiter has raised his strikeout rate to an impressive 31% compared to last year’s 25%. The bad news is everything else. A lower strike rate, more walks, more pitches per inning, a .447/.596/.816 opposing line when the batter doesn’t strike out (league average is .351/.462/.572).
What to do? I don’t know. I’m the guy you call when you need an appraisal of a landfill or a property with a construction defect or contamination. An easy task relative to fixing a pitcher. Is Hickory an option? Perhaps, but to what end? Leiter’s statistical performance would almost certainly improve. Batters would chase more and create less damage on contact. That would be a confidence boost, I suppose, but Leiter’s fundamental issue isn’t lack of trust in his stuff. I’d choose Arizona over Hickory if a reassignment is under consideration.
Dustin Harris had two three-strikeout games in 2022. He had three against Arkansas last week. Yesterday snapped a four-game hitless streak. Conversely, Luisangel Acuna hit .360/.407/.600 in the series.
Hi-A: Hickory 4, Bowling Green (TAM) 0 Hickory: 7 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts Opponent: 2 hits, 7 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 9-4, tied for first
SP Larson Kindreich: 3.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 53 P / 26 S, 0.00 ERA RP Juan Mejia: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Daniel Mateo: 1-4, HR (1), .234/.250/.362 DH Liam Hicks: 2-4, HR (1)
Hickory took five of six from the 2021 and 2022 league champions and outscored them 41-20. Of course, nearly all of the personnel from those title-winning squads have moved on, but the Rays still have a highly regarded system. Hickory leads the league with 3.5 runs per game allowed despite ranking 11th of 12 teams in strikeout rate. The Crawdads trail only one team in walks and homers allowed.
Larson Kindreich walked three in 3.1 innings and missed on over half of his pitches, but he averaged only 15.9 pitches per inning while holding the Hot Rods hitless and scoreless.
Lo-A: Down East 2, Carolina (MIL) 3 (7) Down East: 3 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 4 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
SP Aidan Curry: 5 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 79 P / 51 S, 2.84 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA C Tucker Mitchell: 1-2, BB, HBP,
Lo-A: Down East 3, Carolina (MIL) 4 (7) Down East: 6 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 6-8, 2 GB
SP Ivan Oviedo: 3.1 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 4 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 66 P / 39 S, 9.35 ERA RP Dylan McCarty: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA LF Yosy Galan: 1-2, 2B, BB, .194/.324/.452
The Woodies scored 16 runs in the six-game series and were shut out in the final two games of the previous week. Tucker Mitchell (.500/.581/.583 in eight games) and Anthony Gutierrez (.286/.333/.381) are the most notable outliers. This week, Down East heads to Houston-affiliated Fayetteville, which in typical fashion is walking everyone in sight but great at missing bats.
Aidan Curry has fanned 19 of 51 batters (37%). He signed out of high school despite being ignored in the five-round 2020 draft.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Frisco lost its 11th straight. Texas released pitchers Joe Filomeno and James Dykstra from AA, replaced by OF Austin O’Banion and pitcher Werner Leal, neither of whom had played full-season ball. I told y’all that 2023’s “five years ago” segment would be a challenge.
SP Robert Dugger: 5 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 69 P / 46 S, 6.39 ERA RP Joe Barlow: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA 2B Justin Foscue: 2-4, HR (3), .242/.373/.452
Down 3-1 in the 9th, Justin Foscue led with a solo homer. The Express would load the bases with one out. Matt Whatley struck out, and catcher Ricardo Genoves threw to second with Davis Wendzel well off the base. Runner-on-third Yoshi Tsutsugo broke for home as Wendzel manufactured a rundown but was tagged at the plate for the final out.
Tsutsugo has started two straight games at third. He hadn’t played there since 2020.
SP Ryan Garcia: 4 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 78 P / 41 S, 3.27 ERA RP Marc Church: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 2.70 ERA RF Trevor Hauver: 0-1, 2 BB, HBP, .184/.380/.289
Evan Carter did not play. CF Kellen Strahm reached twice on walks, stole a base, and scored Frisco’s only run in the leadoff spot.
Ryan Garcia is in “hard to hit but hit hard” mode so far: opponents are only 7-for-39 but with three homers and a double.
Frisco has outscored the opposition by two runs per game but is in a four-way tie for first at 7-7. The Riders have scored at least seven runs in all the wins but no more than three in the losses.
Unretired reliever Hever Bueno is active for Frisco. Reliever Grant Anderson has returned to Round Rock.
Hi-A: Hickory 5, Bowling Green (TAM) 3 Hickory: 4 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 6 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts Record: 8-4, tied for first
SP Kumar Rocker: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 SO, 74 P / 44 S, 2.19 ERA RP Leury Tejeda: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 5.06 ERA RP Michael Brewer: 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.50 ERA LF Jayce Easley: 0-1, 3 BB, SB (5), .244/.354/.341 SS Max Acosta: 3-4, 2B, SB (4), .356/.396/.556
Rocker fanned eight batters for the second time in three starts. Per Mark Parker, Rocker missed 14 bats: seven on fastballs, five or six on sliders, and one or two on changeups. He threw first-pitch balls to 11 of 18 batters. Results of those were mixed: both walks, a double, but also five of his seven strikeouts.
Max Acosta’s single and double in the first two innings plated three. Acosta’s gaudy slash stats aren’t unprecedented. He batted .349/.411/.546 last July.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Frisco fell to 3-13 with a tenth straight loss. Starter Brett Martin struck out nine and walked none in five innings but allowed a homer and four runs.
Condolences to Jamey Newberg on the loss of his father. He posted his eulogy on his Facebook account. I was able to access it even after logging out of FB, so even if you’re not Facebook friends with him or lack an account, you might be able to read it through this twitter link.
SP Kyle Cody: 3.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 62 P / 41 S, 5.54 ERA CF JP Martinez: 2-5, 2B, SB (9), .353/.484/.549 SS Jonathan Ornelas: 3-4, BB, .238/.400/.286 C Sam Huff: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, .184/.268/.347
27-year-old JP Martinez is off to a great start backed by across-the-board improvement in the statcast metrics. I’m not expecting a 1.000+ OPS to hold up, but he really is hitting the ball harder. I also hadn’t been thinking of him as a possible depth for the big club and I’m not really now, but I’m thinking of thinking about it.
Jonathan Ornelas is getting more hits to bolster his 20% walk rate. He’s never posted a full-season rate above 9%.
SP TK Roby: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 79 P / 51 S, 7.24 ERA
Scout’s honor: when I looked at the schedule yesterday, the suspended game showed as a Saturday completion. Instead, they played last night.
Evan Carter was hit by a pitch late in the first game. It didn’t look bad, and he stayed in, but his absence in the second game prompted some anxious texting and tweeting. He’s fine. “An abundance of caution,” etc.
Luisangel Acuna clubbed a grand slam in the opener. Years ago, it might have disappeared because of rain that halted the contest before 4.5 innings, but at some point the powers that be (who I sometimes malign, but not this time) wisely said “replaying minor league games from scratch is ridiculous, just pick it up tomorrow.”
SP Mitch Bratt: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 78 P / 47 S, 3.00 ERA RP Spencer Mraz: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.84 ERA DH Max Acosta: 2-4, BB, .317/.364/.512 1B Josh Hatcher: 2-2, 2 BB, SB (4), .317/.364/.512 C Cody Freeman: 2-6, 2B, BB
In addition to those above: SS Frainyer Chavez: hitless with two walks RF Alejandro Osuna and 2B Griffin Cheney: hitless with three walks CF Marcus Smith: hitless with four walks
Hickory drew 18 walks. No hit batsmen, but Bowling also served up five wild pitches, a passed ball, and three errors. Catcher Nate Soria was the only of six Hot Rod pitchers to avoid a walk; he pitched a one-run 9th.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Carolina (MIL) 3 Down East: 7 hits, 2 walks, 16 strikeouts Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts Record: 6-6, 0.5 GB
SP Brock Porter: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 SO, 64 P / 36 S, 3.38 ERA RP Florencio Serrano: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Matt Brosky: 3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 3.00 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, .308/.341/.410 LF Yosy Galan: 1-4, HR (2)
During a five-game losing streak plus eight inning of last night, Down East scored eight runs. Down 3-1 with two out and two on in the 9th, Yosy Galan plated three with one game-ending swing.
Brock Porter combined elements of his first two starts, loading up on both walks and strikeouts. Of 36 batters faced, he’s fanned 12 and walked or hit nine, leaving his defense as spectators nearly 60% of the time.
Today’s Starters AAA: Dugger AA: Garcia Hi-A: Rocker Lo-A: TBD (Curry and/or bullpen is my guess)
Five Years Ago Yesterday Five minutes ago today, an assignment I’ve been working on since August 2020 settled [takes a sip of the nice tequila]. Five years ago yesterday, Round Rock’s game at Colorado Springs had a mid-game 30-minute fog delay
SP Cody Bradford: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 81 P / 56 S, 0.77 ERA RP John King: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 3.00 ERA SS Jonathan Ornelas: 2-5, 2B, .203/.373/.254 1B Blaine Crim: 1-2, 2 BB, .273/.385/.364
Cody Bradford went out and did Cody Bradford things. Six swinging strikes on fastballs in a range of 88.7 to 90.4 MPH. Four more on secondaries. To be clear, that fastball is a straightforward four, not a bowling-ball two-seamer, and it tends to work high, as evidenced by this graphic of last night’s whiffs.
Blaine Crim and Yoshi Tsutsugo scored on a Jonathan Ornelas double in the 7th. Appropriately, Crim and Tsutsugo walked. Sacramento has a 20% BB/HBP rate and opposing OBP of .416, both worst in minor league ball.
Crim’s rates of hard hits and good velo/angle combinations are solid overall, but what’s missing so far are any balls I classify as likely homers. He’s hit two in the “maybe a homer” group, one of which did leave the yard.
AA: suspended
Frisco leads 9-0 after four. They’ll resume Saturday.
Seven-inning starts are rare in the lower levels, especially in April, but averaging 12 pitches per inning can get you there. Per longtime Crawdads’ follower/reporter/scorer/etc. Mark Parker, Stephan didn’t throw many fastballs, missed 14 bats, and had first-pitch strikes to 19 of 26 batters.
Entering the season, 2018 5th-rounder Jayce Easley had reached 163 times on hits and 163 times on combined walks/HBPs.
Lo-A: Down East 3, Carolina (MIL) 8 Down East: 6 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 10 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts Record: 5-6, 1 GB
SP Jose Corneill: 4 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 5 R, 4 BB, 4 SO, 81 P / 46 S, 5.73 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, HR (1) DH Yosy Galan: 2-2, 2B, HR (1), 2 BB
Anthony Gutierrez (.286/.324/.400) has his first full-season homer and fifth of his young career. Two walks are far more unlikely than a homer from Yosy Galan.
Down East has scored seven runs during a five-game losing streak.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Hickory’s AJ Alexy walked four in 3.1 innings and had nine in 11.1 for the season. Alexy never had good control, but it improved enough for him to reach MLB in 2021. He backslid last year, and his time as a Charlotte Knight (CHW AAA) is going exceptionally poorly: 13 walks, a hit batter and two homers in seven innings.
Alexy and Nick Solak were teammates for two days, but Solak never appeared for the Knights and may not have even joined the team for all I know. Solak has been DFA’ed three times in a span of 17 days. For the moment, he’s a Gwinnett Striper.
SP Chase Lee: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 38 P / 25 S, 1.86 ERA RP Zack Littell: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Jonathan Ornelas: 1-4, BB, .185/.371/.222 2B Justin Foscue: 2-5, 2B, .255/.387/.451 3B Blaine Crim: 2-4, BB, .262/.354/.357
Blaine Crim has started five games at third. That represents half of his ten non-DH starts in 2023 and half of his career ten starts at that position. Not what I expected.
Jonathan Ornelas made his first outfield start of the season. He played CF four times in 2022 and 27 the year before. A Josh Smith-esque super-utlility role is likely what he’s working toward.
Chase Lee isn’t being converted to starting. Or at least, I think not. Round Rock has a five-plus-bullpen rotation.
SP Owen White: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 77 P / 50 S, 2.13 ERA RP Marc Church: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1.93 ERA CF Evan Carter: 2-5, .381/.519/.619 2B Luisangel Acuna: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, SB (3), .306/.352/.408 1B Dio Arias: 2-4, 2 HR (2) SS Chris Seise: 1-4, HR (1)
It’s early, but one thing to eye is Owen White’s strikeouts. His rate of 15.7% ranks 59th of 72 Texas League pitchers with at least six innings, and his swinging strike rate of 8.9% is 56th. Last year’s rates in AA were 27% strikeouts and 16% swinging strikes. White was slowed by a minor injury in Spring Training.
I mentioned yesterday that Carter had seen to most pitches in AA. Now in second: Dustin Harris.
SP Winston Santos: 3.2 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 7 R, 2 BB, 3 HBP, 3 SO, 82 P / 52 S, 5.79 ERA RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 6.75 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 3.38 ERA RP Michael Brewer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2.25 HBP, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA 2B Jayce Easley: 2-4, 2B, BB RF Alejandro Osuna: 2-4, 2B, BB 1B Josh Hatcher: 3-4, BB
Hickory chipped away at a five-run deficit in the final four innings. In the 9th, walks by Josh Hatcher and Daniel Mateo preceded a game-ending single from Cody Freeman. The Crawdad bullpen kept the Hot Rods off the board despite nine runners.
The early monster at the plate is Hatcher: .424/.472/.606 in eight games. He’s in his first full pro season but is already 24, having signed at a steep discount as a 10th-round college senior. That is to say, posting gaudy numbers is conducive to his employment.
Lo-A: Down East 2, Carolina (MIL) 5 Down East: 8 hits, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 5-5, 0.5 GB
SP Leandro Lopez: 3 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 68 P / 40 S, 2.84 ERA RP Josh Gessner: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Jojo Blackmon: 1-3, HR (1), BB C Tucker Mitchell: 3-3, 2B, SB (1) LF Yosy Galan: 2-4
Leandro Lopez started much of 2022 in the Dominican Republic but rarely worked through two orders of batters. Jojo Backmon is famed for speed but has more pop than you might think. He clubbed nine homers in 54 rookie-level games last year.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Jonathan Hernandez allowed two solo homers but nothing else in a 6-5 victory for high-A Down East. Sam Huff hit three doubles for low-A Hickory.
SP Cole Winn: 4 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 86 P / 50 S, 7.88 ERA RP Joe Barlow: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Yerry Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA 3B Jonathan Ornelas: 2-4, 3 BB, .180/.369/.220 C Sam Huff: 1-7, HR (2), .190/.255/.357 2B Justin Foscue: 2-5, HR (2), BB, .239/.386/.435 DH Clint Frazier: 3-5, 2 2B, BB, .244/.354/.390 SS Davis Wendzel: 2-3, 3 BB, .195/.298/.415
Justin Foscue hit a laser-beam homer (107.8 MPH, 20 degrees) that stays in some parks with topspin and/or unfavorable wind, but in Sacramento, it traveled 424 feet.
Round Rock drew 16 walks and an HBP. JP Martinez, Jonathan Ornelas, and Davis Wendzel had three walks each, while Yoshi Tsutsogo drew four. Good for them, but save some discredit for Sacramento. They’ve walked or hit 8.4 batters per game, 20% of all plate appearances, a figure unacceptable in rookie ball, much less AAA. The RiverCats are out there operating without any decent restraint, totally beyond the pale of any acceptable human conduct.
So far, Cole Winn’s walk and strikeout rates are nearly identical to last year. 2022’s silver lining was an ability to keep the ball in the park, resulting in a respectable .429 opposing slugging percentage. In 2023, Winn’s hard-hit rate has increased, and opponents are slugging .576. Winn is throwing a much higher proportion of fastballs in 2022, and getting more swinging strikes, but the ultimate results are no better. One anomaly from last night: Winn didn’t throw a single slider. In last year’s early going, Winn would often emphasize a particular secondary at the expense of others, but I don’t recall him completely ditching one.
SP Jack Leiter: 5 IP, 8 H (2 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 87 P / 55 S, 5.27 ERA CF Evan Carter: 0-1, 4 BB, SB (3), .378/.531/.649 C David Garcia: 3-4, 2B
Let’s talk about Evan Carter. Carter is on a different level than his peers. I’ve either written or said something to that effect already, but here’s some proof.
Carter is seeing 24.4 pitches per game and taking 11.3 balls. In just ten games, he’s seen 42 more pitches than any batter in AA. His walk rate is 25%.
Carter hardly ever swings at first pitches (22%). Opposing pitchers knew this entering the season, but he’s still drawn a first-pitch ball in 82% of his takes. 63% of his plate appearances have begun with a 1-0 count.
Carter is swinging at 35% of pitches, making contact on 75% of swings, putting 41% of contacted swings in play, and batting .538 on contact.
The Texas League is averaging 5.86 pitches per out. So, on average, a team would need to throw 158 pitches to record 27 outs. Evan Carter is seeing 10.61 pitches per out, and a team would need a whopping 286 pitches to complete nine innings against an all-Carter lineup.
Max Acosta is slugging .607. Probably not in the long run, but it’s nice to see a hot start.
OF Marcus Smith is 0-16 with 11 strikeouts. I caution about short samples, but this unfortunately might be more than just variance. Smith had an alarming 42% K rate in low-A last year. His promotion feels at least in part due to the Rangers having four other outfielders needing regular play at Down East.
Lo-A: Down East 2, Carolina (MIL) 5 Down East: 4 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts Opponent: 5 hits, 9 walks, 13 strikeouts Record: 5-4
SP Luis Ramirez: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 28 P / 9 S, 6.75 ERA RP Damian Mendoza: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Jackson Kelly: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA 3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-2, HR (1), 2 BB
Me, three weeks ago: “Down East has a highly entertaining collection of position players. Will it win a bunch of games? I don’t know.” In my preview draft, the question was a slightly different “will it hit?” The answer to that so far is “not really:” .207/.291/.276 and 3.4 runs per game.
Opponents are scoring an even worse 2.5 runs per game and batting .176/.268/.296. Down East has a strikeout rate of 33% and the league’s best steal prevention by far. Opponents have only seven steals and a 50% success rate. Credit Ian Moller and pitching staff that appears to have some idea of how to keep runners at bay.
Today’s Starters AAA: Lee (bullpen game) AA: White Hi-A: Santos Lo-A: Lopez
Five Years Ago Yesterday I missed what I assumed would be Round Rock’s last-ever morning game as a Texas affiliate because my daughter was sick. Ah, well. The Express played and won their first game under what I termed the “egregious” new extra-inning runner-on-second rule, which had been instituted in rookie ball the year before and expanded to all minor classifications in 2018. I’ve since changed my mind (it’s still a pox in the Majors, though).
