Texas League Division Series (best-of-three)
Frisco RoughRiders (84-54) vs. Athletics-affiliated Midland RockHounds (84-54)
Season Run Differential: Frisco +121, Midland +180
Last 24 Games: Frisco 16-8, Midland 18-6
Season Series: Midland 12-6, +23 run differential
How They Got Here
Frisco and Midland both set franchise records for winning percentage and were by far the best teams and only serious competitors for the split-season division titles. Frisco clinched the first half with an unassailable eight-game lead heading into a concluding series at Midland. Good thing, as the Riders would lose five of six. Needing not worry about Frisco in the second half but never letting up, Midland secured the second playoff spot 12 days ago.
History
Frisco won the 2022 series in dominating fashion over San Antonio (semis) and Wichita (finals), breaking an 18-year drought that included two losses in the finals and four first-round exits. Championship participants whoâve since reached the Majors are Luisangel Acuna, Evan Carter, Justin Foscue, Jonathan Ornelas, Thomas Saggese, Cody Bradford, Mason Englert, Jack Leiter, Ricky Vanasco, and Owen White.
Midland has seven league titles including four straight from 2014 through 2017, but the Hounds are in the postseason for the first time since 2019. A long-time Oakland affiliate, Midland is semi-notorious for fielding, shall we say, some veteran pitching staffs. This year, three of the last four seasons, and six of the last 13, the Rockhounds have had the Texas Leagueâs oldest average age among pitchers. Frisco has six active pitchers younger than anyone who has pitched for Midland all season.
The squads last met in the playoffs in 2014, when Midland knocked off a Frisco team that included Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Jorge Alfaro, Hanser Alberto, Odubel Herrera, Keone Kela, Jered Eickhoff, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Alec Asher, and Jake Thompson.
Top 30 Prospects per MLB.com
Frisco:
1. IF Sebastian Walcott
3. RHP Alejandro Rosario (inactive)
6. RHP Emiliano Teodo
8. RHP Winston Santos
16. OF Alejandro Osuna
18. LHP Mitch Bratt
21. LHP Kohl Drake
27. RHP Dane Acker
28. RHP Skylar Hales
Rosario was scratched from his AA debut 11 days ago with fatigue (general, not arm-specific) and has not appeared in a Frisco uniform.
Midland:
2. IF Nick Kurtz (injured)
5. OF Henry Bolte
6. RHP Mason Barnett
10 OF Denzel Clarke
11. C Daniel Susac
18. RHP Jack Perkins
24. IF Brennan Milone
26. OF Brayan Buelvas (injured)
29. IF Will Simpson
2024 fourth-overall selection Nick Kurtz suffered a hamstring strain in his fifth AA game and hasnât played in three weeks.
Offense
Frisco: 5% above-average runs scored, .250/.329/.390, 104 OPS+, 102 wRC+
Midland: 4% above-average runs scored, .253/.329/.402, 104 OPS+, 100 wRC+
Frisco:
C Cooper Johnson / Tucker Mitchell
1B Abimelec Ortiz
2B Max Acosta (also SS)
3B Cody Freeman (also 2B)
SS Sebastian Walcott (also 3B)
LF Aaron Zavala
CF Alejandro Osuna
RF Luis Mieses
Also OF Josh Hatcher, IF Keyber Rodriguez, OF Daniel Mateo
Frisco lacks a Gallo-esque power source or Carter-esque OBP machine, but the offense is well-rounded and absent glaring weaknesses. All the projected starters have an OPS in excess of 100 except Aaron Zavala, and even he reaches base at an acceptable clip. They donât walk much as a group but excel at contact.
Leadoff hitter Alejandro Osuna (.306/.379/.523) led the team in every slash stat. He, Max Acosta, Cody Freeman, Josh Hatcher, and Cooper Johnson had career seasons at the plate. Abimelec Ortiz suffered most of the season but smacked ten of his 18 homers and slugged .720 in the seasonâs final month, so maybe he is our new Joey Gallo. Acosta and Hatcher are the likeliest running threats. 18-year-old Sebastian Walcott hit four singles, three doubles, and a homer in his first five AA games.
I have Hatcher in the âalsoâ pile but expect him to play regularly. He leads the teams in RF appearances but has bounced around left, first, and DH of late. Daniel Mateo hasnât hit well in AA but could be employed as a pinch-runner and/or defensive replacement.
Frisco hit terribly against Midland during the regular season (.219/.291/.305, 2.4 runs per game), but a healthy portion of those plate appearances came from folks now off the roster or not expected to play much, if at all.
Midland:
C Daniel Susac / Shane McGuire
1B Will Simpson
2B Euribiel Angeles
3B Jordan Groshans
SS Jeremy Eierman
LF Junior Perez
CF Denzel Clarke
RF Henry Bolte
Also 2/3/DH Brennan Milone, 2/3/S Jack Winkler, LF Caeden Trenkle, RF Jeisson Rosario
Like Frisco, Midland has an above-average if not quite thrilling offense. They donât walk much, either, strike out more, and hit for a little more power (after adjusting for park). Midland has several hitters (Susac, Groshans, Winkler, Perez) with sub-par OBPs. Milone led the team with just 15 homers, but the Hounds are likely to have up to five guys in the lineup who slugged .400 or better. Outfielders Bolte, Clarke, and Perez steal more frequently than anyone on the RoughRiders.
Pitching
Frisco: 14% better than avg. runs allowed, .231/.324/.353, 93 OPS+, 12% BB/HBP, 25% SO
Midland: 24% better than avg. run allowed, .219/.301/.335, 78 OPS+, 11% BB/HBP, 25% SO
Frisco:
SP1: Winston Santos (4.89 ERA, .227/.306/.424 oppo line, 10% BB/HBP, 30% SO)
SP2: Kohl Drake (1.42 ERA, .139/.200/.262, 7% BB/HBP, 24% SO)
Santosâs early days in AA contained some memorably rocky outings, including three with multiple homers and a renewed tendency to plunk batters. He improved substantially down the stretch. While I wouldnât put much stock in a lone head-to-head, he did shut out the Hounds for five innings in mid-August.
Drakeâs Frisco stats donât include his one-off appearance in mid-April, when he very uncharacteristically walked six in 1.1 IP. Drake began the season in the low-A rotation. Five months later, he had his schedule adjusted to insure a playoff start in AA. Not bad. Notably, Midland might offer an entirely right-handed lineup against Drake, who was relatively ordinary against them (.262/.326/.365) compared to lefties (.206/.271/.316).
Frisco hasnât announced a third starter, and the fluidity of the rotation down the stretch doesnât point to an obvious choice. Mitch Bratt would be the most rested. He posted a 5.73 ERA, but his peripherals are better.
In relief, Frisco has a wealth of options. Frisco didnât have a firm closer, but Skylar Hales (2.10 ERA, .241/.303/.352) might fit the role. Newcomers Ryan Lobus and lefty Bryan Magdaleno pitched well enough that I expect them to be trusted in a meaningful situation. Dane Acker has been strong in shorter spells (1.35 ERA, .240/.269/.260). Jackson Kelley (3.38 ERA, .194/.267/.239)doesnât throw as hard but has been no less effective.
Whither Emiliano Teodo? Short-leash Game 3 starter? 2-3 innings behind Santos or Drake? The 9th inning? Teodo hasnât pitched on fewer than five days rest all season, so expecting more than one appearance may bit too much to ask, but I suppose itâs possible.
Midland:
SP1: RHP Mason Barnett (2.61 ERA, .212/.283/.331, 10% BB/HBP, 31% SO)
SP2: RHP Jack Perkins (2.96 ERA, .193/.296/.241, 13% BB/HBP, 32% SO)
Frisco had a great pitching staff. Midland had the leagueâs best (plus stellar defense), allowing 98 fewer runs than the park-adjusted league average.
Barnett has spent most of 2024 with AA Northwest Arkansas and was acquired with others for RHP Lucas Erceg at the deadline. The stats above constitute only his seven Midland starts, which are the most recent and better than his time as a Royal. Perkins is a 2022 fifth-rounder out of Indiana. Both have mid-90s fastballs, a change they will actually use, and a couple of breakers.
Midland had the leagueâs best bullpen, although their walk and strikeout rates werenât anything fancy. Closer Seth Elledge (2.22 ERA, .175/.228/.292) is 28 and spent parts of 2020-2021 with the MLB Cardinals. (Did I mention the Aâs have a thing for older men?) Elledge deals what looks to me like a pro forma low-90s fastball and low-80s slider, and his swinging strike rate is a shockingly low 7.5%, but he doesnât walk anybody and has been very hard to hit.
As a group, Frisco tended not to hit lefties especially well, and Midland southpaw relievers David Leal and Domingo Robles were quite effective against same-side hitters. Busy right-handed relievers were Tyler Baum (4.01 ERA, .233/.332/.367, 31% K rate but not as dominant as some), Shohei Tomioka (4.14 ERA, .208/.310/.284), Colin Peluse (2.05 ERA, .213/.274/.301), and Ryan Cusick (1.73 ERA, .213/.318/.245 in relief).
Defense
Both defenses are strong. Frisco ranked at or near the top in preventing steals, errors, potential double plays turned, and balls in play turned into outs. Midland was average-or-better in most defensive aspects but outrageously good at limiting hits on balls in play.
Park Factors
Frisco â 1.03 for runs, 1.03 for homers
Midland â 1.04 for runs, 0.94 for homers
Both parks are mildly hitter-friendly, if in different fashion. Frisco depresses doubles ever so slightly but favors singles and homers. Midland actually diminishes homers more than anywhere save San Antonio and Arkansas but promotes everything else (making Midlandâs low defensive BABIP all the more impressive).
Advantages / Outlook
Offense â Frisco
Pitching â Midland
Defense â Midland
On the whole, the offenses were equal, but I favor the current roster of Frisco over Midland.
Midland allowed 58 fewer runs during the season. Friscoâs offense relies on contact, while Midlandâs pitching and defense turn contact into outs far better than any other team in the league. Are the Hounds a little lucky? Maybe, but I wouldnât count on that suddenly disappearing after 138 games. The series could be decided by whether Frisco can generate an extra it or two at the right time.
These are two of the three best teams in AA, and one side is going to be unhappy. If forced to bet, I too would be unhappy because the series is a tossup, but I suppose I would pick the Rockhounds on the basis of their slightly better regular season performance.
Elsewhere
Round Rock catcher Matt Whatley crumpled rounding third Saturday night and remained prone on the grass until tagged out. He was IL’ed today. 2024 14th-rounder Ben Hartl was promoted from low-A Down East. Adrian Sampson is scheduled to start the first game of Round Rock’s season-ending series at Tacoma.
I’m happy to say that Kinston has already secured professional baseball for 2025. The Down East Bird Dawgs are the newest members of the Frontier League. The new logo has an amazing callback to the old tenant:
