I’d meant to write a little about yesterday’s MLB transactions, but yesterday was an exceptionally busy day I was tired. I was tired and uninspired.
Down to Round Rock for the incoming Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford are IF Cody Freeman and OF Alejandro Osuna. Staying up are IF Nicky Lopez, OF/IF Michael Helman and OF Evan Carter.
I’m not president of the Nicky Lopez Fan Club or even a member, but the infield at-bat availability will shrink with Seager back, and Freeman has options and needs steady work. Okay. Osuna has a terrific .376 OBP and a .275 slugging percentage. He actually has some pop, but it’s yet to appear above AA. Osuna is also below Helman on the CF depth chart, and Helman can play infield as well. I would much rather watch Osuna than Helman, but I understand the thought process.
The story is Carter, currently batting a lowly .171/.291/.331, but that line hides a more-or-less league-average OPS against righties (.196/.318/.385) and continued utter helplessness against lefties (.037/.133/.037).
What is Carter’s future? Are we giving up on him as an everyday player? If not, an extended stay in AAA is probably in order to find whether Carter can provide something against lefties (or can’t). He has in the past, admittedly at the A levels. Here’s his OPS against lefties at all levels, year by year:
2021: 1.033 (51 PA)
2022: .749 (113 PA)
2023: .602 (106 PA)
2024: .283 (27 PA)
2025: .290 (54 PA)
2026: .170 (31 PA)
If he’s staying in Arlington, every plate appearance of his against a lefty is a non-competitive event, and if the 30-32 Rangers fancy themselves contenders, they have to minimize these events. He’s started four games against a lefty in 2026, and that number can’t budge unless the Rangers drop out of the race. While Carter’s K rate of 35% against lefties is certainly bad, as is his 69% contact rate against in-zone pitches, those would be tolerable if the occasional contact was hard. It isn’t, though. Carter’s median exit velocity against lefties is a minuscule 70 MPH compared to 93 against righties. Out of 17 non-bunts in play, only four have exceeded 77 MPH. (Incidentally, Carter isn’t chase-happy against lefties, just a 24% swing rate out of zone). Staying in Arlington doesn’t immediately relegate him to a permanent platoon role, but time is dwindling.
The mitigating factor has been Carter’s defense, which is elite. Despite the offense, he’s been worth 1.6 WAR per Baseball Reference and 0.9 per FanGraphs. That’s the WAR of a better-than-average regular. Weirdly, his production reminds me of Leonys Martin, the type of player whose defense was strong enough to provide league-average overall value despite minimal offense. Were Carter merely an average defender, I think the decision to send him down would be easy. But it’s not easy, and I’ve waffled on whether I would send him down as I’ve been writing this. This decision is tied to broader matters, such as whether 2026 is a now-or-never season, and whether the team is genuinely competitive or just cosplaying and would be better served with a teardown/rebuild. (And, ugh, what about a strike/lockout?)
Jamey Newberg wrote about Carter at length today in a piece about how he’d reconfigure the roster, but (scout’s honor) as soon as I reached the part of the discussion concerning him, I stopped reading because I wanted to complete my own thoughts down first. Now that I’ve written the above and finished Jamey’s piece, I’d reiterate his takeaway that Carter’s “big-league profile is at stake.” So is the profile of the entire organization. We’re in for some interesting times. Hopefully, they involve winning baseball.
Box Scores
AAA: Round Rock 4, at Oklahoma City (LAD) 5
Round Rock: 8 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 25-35, 10 GB
SP Nolan Kingham: 4.2 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 5 R, 4 BB, 7 SO, 90 P / 51 S, 11.25 ERA
RP Joe Ross: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 4.25 ERA
2B John Taylor: 1-3, 2B, BB, .238/.385/.524
The righty Kinhgam threw a bazillion changes and backdoor sliders to a lefty-heavy lineup with mixed results to all but RF Zach Ehrhard, who homered twice.
The Express offense scored four against prospect River Ryan with walks, singles and John Taylor’s double. 
AA: Frisco 4, Springfield (STL) 6
Frisco: 9 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 27-25, tied for 1st
SP Winston Santos: 5 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 74 P / 50 S, 7.83 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 1 IP, 0 H (0.6 HR), 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 3-4, HR (8), BB, .306/.403/.488
3B Max Wagner: 1-3, BB, .267/.362/.517
Santos was stung by a three-run homer in the 2nd. That 7.83 ERA isn’t lying; opponents are hitting .328/.415/.547, a 157 OPS+ by my count. He’s possibly been unlucky on balls in play, and league-wide offense is inflated over last year, but that only explains so much. Santos did finish with nine straight retired. At the moment, Santos isn’t on the short list or any list in terms of potentially helping the Rangers, but we’re barely over one-third into the schedule. 
Hi-A: Hub City 0, at Winston-Salem (CHW) 1
Hub City: 2 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 25-28, 14 GB
SP Kamdyn Perry: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, HBP, 2 SO, 69 P / 41 S, 2.00 ERA
RP Kai Wynyard: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 9.97 ERA
Hub City has allowed a total of eight hits the past three nights and has three losses. The problems: 23 walks, some dubious defense last night, and no help from the offense. Unlike Tuesday and Wednesday, the Burgers never threatened a no-hitter but did hold the Dash scoreless until the 8th. Ryan Burrows lined to left-center and reached second when CF Paxton Kling couldn’t corral it cleanly. It was ruled a straight double, but I have my doubts. Burrows reached third on a grounder and scored the game’s only run when Cole Stasio bounced a pitch past catcher Malcolm Moore.
Hub City has been eliminated from first-half title contention by Bowling Green (39-14), which is on a 24-5 tear. 
Lo-A: Hickory 3, Kannapolis (CHW) 4
Hickory: 9 hits, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 6 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 29-23, tied for 1st
SP Jesus Lafalaise: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 3 SO, 75 P / 39 S, 5.58 ERA
RP Wily Villar: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.86 ERA
LF Paulino Santana: 1-5, HR (5), .261/.403/.415
DH Josh Springer: 2-3, 2B, BB, .309/.387/.366
RF Deward Tovar: 2-4, HR (10), .218/.294/.441
19-year-old Paulino Santana has already equaled last year’s five homers, and all from 2025 were at the complex rather than Hickory. He’s sneaked in a few games at center but is essentially the team’s LF, and if that’s his future, he really needs that bat to shine.
OF Braylin Morel is active in Hickory. He’d been on the 60-day minor league IL and had batted .259/.286/.333 in seven games at the complex. Texas released OF Wady Mendez.
Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: Pence
Hi-A: Scarborough
Lo-A: Deakins
Five Years Ago Yesterday
Frisco’s Hans Crouse fanned four and allowed a solo homer in three innings. You could still find heated discussion (but not in this report) of him as “upper 90s with a wipeout slider,” but that was no longer the case, nor had it been since early in 2019, when he tapered off to the mid (and sometimes low) 90s while dealing with bone spurs. In 2021, Crouse was in fact rounding into a legitimate starting prospect with additions of a cutter and change, although by 2023 he’d convert permanently to relief.
Crouse is currently with AAA Norfolk in the Baltimore system.
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