Month: July 2025

The Rangers are 44-46 despite a positive run differential of 25 runs. A neutral record for that differential would be 48-42. With a league-average offense, meaning 4.09 runs per game instead of the actual 3.78, the potential record would be 51-39. Texas with a league-average offense but including the current level of bad luck would be 47-43. That’s not great, but it’s one game out of the wild card instead of four.

Often, luck manifests in the form of a lopsided record in one-run games, but the Rangers stand at 14-15, which honestly seems about right. Put another way, the current situation doesn’t feel like the result of bad luck. Sad to say, it feels earned.

Regardless, Fangraphs currently projects the worst AL wild card to conclude at 86-76, so the Rangers would need a 42-30 finish to match that.

Box Scores

AAA: wet

To be made up in September. The starting lineup included Josh Jung at third and Rowdy Tellez at DH. The Express have tomorrow off and host Albuquerque during the week leading up to the All-Star break.

AA: Frisco 1, at Arkansas (SEA) 5
Frisco: 6 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 4-8, 3 GB, 42-38 overall

SP Trey Supak: 6 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 76 P / 56 S, 4.48 ERA
LF Keith Jones II: 1-3, BB, .240/.269/.480

Early hit-heavy sequences placed the Travelers ahead 5-0 in the 2nd.

Frisco has three consecutive 2-4 series despite allowing only 4.1 runs per game in that span, second only to Midland. Sebastian Walcott has no extra-base hits in his last 21 games, hitting .218/.319/.218. He had yesterday off.

Hi-A: Hub City 4, Winston-Salem (CHW) 1
Hub City: 5 hits, 7 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 9-6, tied for first, 40-40 overall

SP Jose Gonzalez: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 7 SO, 71 P / 53 S, 2.94 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1.98 ERA
2B Casey Cook: 2-3, 3B, BB, SB (20), .204/.281/.268
RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-3, HR (4), BB, .213/.280/.331

Erik Loomis has four consecutive two-inning outings with four or five strikeouts. His 44% K rate ranks third among 178 South Atlantic League pitchers with at least 20 innings. As you’d expect, he also sports an elite swinging strike rate of 11.7%.

Wait. 11.7% isn’t elite. It’s not even league-average. Missing bats correlates strongly to strikeouts, but Loomis is a ridiculous outlier:

How is this possible? It appears to be a combination of 1) a higher-than-average rate of pitches taken, and 2) a higher-than-average rate of called strikes. It’s bizarre and likely unsustainable, but I’d add that during the four-game stretch I mentioned, in which Loomis has fanned 18 of 27 (67%), his miss rate is a genuinely elite 18%.

Jose Gonzalez was absurdly efficient again.

Weird, accidentally discovered stat: Of the 150 MLB-affiliated minor league teams in the US, only Hub City has not hit a triple on the road.

Lo-A: Hickory 2, Kannapolis (CHW) 9
Hickory: 9 hits, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 9 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 11-4, 0.5 GB, 44-36 overall

SP David Hagaman: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 37 P / 21 S, 7.71 ERA
DH Hector Osorio: 2-4, .253/.399/.364
RF Marcos Torres: 2-4, .243/.328/.388

Hagaman was pulled during a four-run 2nd. He’d only thrown 25 pitches, but coming off Tommy John and with the results being what they were, that apparently was the limit.

Apologies for the sketchy schedule this week. I’ve been vacationing in Mexico but a little under the weather lately and, to be honest, a little unenthusiastic about writing as I’ve followed the events in and around my city. I have a brief summary of Friday’s games here.

Texas signed IF Rowdy Tellez to a minor deal. In his career, Tellez has 116 homers, a .436 slugging percentage, and 0.0 wins above replacement. The power giveth, everything else taketh away. Unlike Blaine Crim and Justin Foscue, Tellez bats lefty and was slugging .463 against them in 171 plate appearances with the Mariners. The Ranger are actually slugging better against righties (.378, .146 ISO) than lefties (.336, .117 ISO) this season, but “better” does not equal “good.”

Box Scores

AAA: rain

They’ll make this up in August.

AA: Frisco 6, at Arkansas (SEA) 1
Frisco: 8 hits, 6 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 4-7, 3 GB, 42-37 overall

SP Mitch Bratt: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, 80 P / 53 S, 2.55 ERA
CF Cam Cauley: 2-4, 2B, HBP, .246/.327/.408
C Ian Moller: 2-4, 2B, .227/.323/.312

Mitch Bratt has enough strong starts that I can’t pull a particularly inviting stat from this one. It was just yet another solid night. Among the top 100 AA pitchers in batters faced, Bratt has the second-best BB/HBP rate (5%) and third-best strikeout rate (31%).

Hi-A: Hub City 6, Winston-Salem (CHW) 1
Hub City: 11 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 5 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 8-6, 1 GB, 39-40 overall

SP Mason Molina: 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 81 P / 53 S, 1.32 ERA
RP Wilian Bormie: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 2.83 ERA
C Malcolm Moore: 2-4, .254/.392/.356
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-4, HR (14), .218/.281/.393
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-3, BB, .217/.313/.352

Mason Molina hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit in three high-A starts. Squelching power in low-A was actually a weakness, so I’m skeptical of this trend, but regardless, Molina should be fine at the level, and once he reaches AA we can assess with more scrutiny.

Malcolm Moore is .241/.303/.241 in eight games off the IL. Gleider Figuereo hasn’t lost much playing time since the arrival of fellow 3B Rafe Perich, starting seven games at third versus just four for Perich, who’s had more days off plus spot-starts at first and DH.

Lo-A: Hickory 10, Kannapolis (CHW) 5
Hickory: 10 hits, 6 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 7 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 11-3, 0.5 GB, 44-35 overall

SP Caden Scarborough: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 7 SO, 62 P / 38 S, 3.86 ERA
LF Maxton Martin: 1-5, 3B, HBP, .272/.336/.462
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-5, SB (26), .244/.357/.326
RF Hector Osorio: 3-4, 2B, HBP, .247/.397/.361
SS Esteban Mejia: 1-3, HR (1), 2 BB, .242/.373/.319

Caden Scarborough yielded three runners by walk or HBP for only the second time this season, but he also recorded an out in the 5th for the first time.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Boushley
AA: Supak
Hi-A: Gonzalez
Lo-A: Hagaman

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 7, Sugar Land (HOU) 2
Round Rock: 8 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 6-4

SP Michael Plassmeyer: 4 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 69 P / 43 S, 4.75 ERA
RP Luis Curvelo: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 3.62 ERA
RP Codi Heuer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.91 ERA
C Cooper Johnson: 1-3, HR (3), .202/.345/.289
RF Kellen Strahm: 1-2, 2 BB, SB (28), .264/.362/.392

Aaron Zavala collected his first AAA hit. It’s been tough sledding so far, reminiscent of his earlier troubles, as he’s 1-for-16 with a walk and eight strikeouts.

AA: Frisco 0, at Arkansas (SEA) 2
Frisco: 7 hits, 0 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 2 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 3-7

SP David Davalillo: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 53 P / 33 S, 2.08 ERA
SS Sebastian Walcott: 2-4, .243/.342/.382

David Davalillo returned from a spell on the development list and a skipped start. He improved on his AA debut but received no help.

Hi-A: Hub City 10, Winston-Salem (CHW) 5
Hub City: 11 hits, 0 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 8 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 7-6

SP Dalton Pence: 3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 52 P / 34 S, 0.00 ERA
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-4, HR (13), .217/.281/.383

Pence has appeared nine times as a “long opener,” lasting up to three innings and around 50 pitches.

Lo-A: Hickory 7, Kannapolis (CHW) 1
Hickory: 10 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Record: 10-3

SP Garrett Horn: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 33 P / 24 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Thomas Ireland: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 3.28 ERA
RP William Privette: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.99 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-3, 2B, 2 BB, .276/.417/.345
LF Maxton Martin: 2-4, BB, .273/.335/.458
RF Hector Osorio: 2-3, BB, SB (6), .234/.387/.344

Antonis Macias broke a seven-game walkless streak.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Sugar Land (HOU) 7
Round Rock: 10 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 8 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-4, 1 GB, 39-45 overall

SP Ty Blach: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 70 P / 43 S, 4.07 ERA
RP Cole Winn: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Robbie Ahlstrom: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2.96 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, HR (6), .255/.345/.385
2B Cody Freeman: 2-5, 2 HR (12), .317/.370/.509
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, BB, .296/.381/.513
LF Trevor Hauver: 1-3, 2 BB, .276/.384/.435

Craig Kimbrel allowed two walks and a game-tying homer in the 9th before recording an out. He preserved the tie, but the Express couldn’t score in extras while Sugar Land advanced the gift-runner home on a flyout and single. Kimbrel has surrendered only four hits in eight innings, but three have left the yard. Combined with some errant pitches, Kimbrel sports a weird .138/.342/.448 opposing line. That obviously won’t get him to Arlington.

AA: Frisco 5, Arkansas (SEA) 8
Frisco: 9 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 3-6, 1.5 GB, 41-36 overall

SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 8 H (1 HR), 7 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 86 P / 57 S, 5.86 ERA
LF Wyatt Langford: 1-3, HR
DH Abi Ortiz: 1-3, 2B, BB, .219/.329/.383

Langford homered 425′ to center. Nine of the first 16 batters reached against Josh Stephan, who was nevertheless efficient enough to provide five innings. In five of 13 starts, his runs have exceeded his innings.

Hi-A: Hub City 9, @ Winston-Salem (CHW) 7 (10)
Hub City: 14 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 7 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 6-6, 1 GB, 37-40 overall

SP Dylan MacLean: 4.2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 71 P / 47 S, 4.18 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2.13 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 3-5, BB, 2 SB (23), .241/.310/.309
2B Casey Cook: 3-5, SB (19), .197/.273/.256
LF John Taylor: 4-5, 2 2B

Hub City led 5-3 in the 9th, but Adonis Villavicencio hit two batters, balked and allowed two hits, resulting in extras. The Burgers responded with four in the 10th and made them stick, albeit with difficulty. Eric Loomis has fanned 14 of his last 21 opponents.

Lo-A: Hickory 7, at Kannapolis (CHW) 2
Hickory: 10 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 9-3, 1 GB, 42-35 overall

SP Brooks Fowler: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 56 P / 31 S, 1.29 ERA
RP Brock Porter: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 3.40 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-4, 2B, .271/.411/.336
3B Beycker Barroso: 1-2, 2B, 2 BB, .213/.364/.270
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-4, BB, 2 SB (25), .245/.361/.330

I had a note about IF Devin Fitz-Gerald written up but forgot to insert it. He appeared to injure his left shoulder diving for a grounder Wednesday and was pulled. Initially, he was writhing on the ground, and out of sympathy, so was I. After a few minutes, he could extend his arm and make some rotational motions, so perhaps the news won’t be too bad. He didn’t play yesterday, but as of my time of writing, he remains on the active roster.

Brock Porter has five consecutive walk-free outings. He hasn’t necessarily been great during this period, but the basic control is there.

Complex
We have a Jose Corniell sighting. In his first real action since September 2023, Corniell allowed a walk and single in an inning. Now 22, Corniell underwent elbow surgery last June. He’s on the 40-man roster and is using his second option. Aidan Curry struck out eight, walked none and allowed one hit in five innings. Although never listed as injured, Curry disappeared from high-A Hub City three weeks ago and has pitched twice with the rookies since.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, at Sugar Land (HOU) 8
Round Rock: 5 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts
Record: 5-3, 1 GB, 39-44 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 90 P / 63 S, 8.10 ERA
RP Peyton Gray: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 2.35 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, .250/.344/.367

In his AAA debut, Kohl Drake pitched much better than his line suggested. The first three hits didn’t escape the infield, and the consecutive doubles that ended his night were a medium-hard and soft grounder down the line. Per Statcast*, Drake’s fastball ranged from 92 to 95, a bullet-type slider topped at 89, a healthy number of changes averaged 84, and a handful of curves averaged 80. He missed 12 bats, including two of each pitch type.

Yesterday, I mentioned Skylar Hales’ tendency for the bad nights to be bad indeed, and thus went his AAA debut. The first ten pitches resulted in a hit batter, wild pitch, single and homer.

Josh Jung wasn’t on the roster yet. His demotion was a shock, but also, not really. He’s been dreadful lately and the team is trying to salvage the season, so the move makes sense. I joked on social media that Jack Leiter looked more comfortable at the plate, but that wasn’t entirely a joke. Hopefully, the demotion is brief and fruitful.

* Specifically, my interpretation of Statcast, because the system tends to misclassify offerings from new pitchers; for example, one of Drake’s “four-seam fastballs” was 89 MPH with zero arm-side run and seven inches of induced vertical break.

AA: Frisco 7, Arkansas (SEA) 6
Frisco: 11 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 1 walk, 14 strikeouts
Record: 3-5, 1 GB, 41-35 overall

SP Ryan Lobus: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 37 P / 27 S, 4.89 ERA
RP Josh Mollerus: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Gavin Collyer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.19 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, 2B, 2 SB (23), .246/.325/.412
LF Keith Jones II: 1-4, 3B

Collyer earned his seventh save, most in the system. With an above-slot bonus of $585,000 in the 12th round of 2019, Collyer has used nearly all of his seven years rounding into relief-prospect form. He spent nearly four full years at the A levels, some of them in a nondescript long role, but during 2025 he getting shorter and higher-leverage looks, offering a fastball reaching into the upper 90s and a mean sweeper. Collyer can become a free agent at season’s end unless the Rangers decide to protect him on the 40 or make an offer he can’t refuse.

Hi-A: Hub City 4, @ Winston-Salem (CHW) 6
Hub City: 10 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts

SP Leandro Lopez: 2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 46 P / 29 S, 2.37 ERA
RP Anthony Susac: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.86 ERA
LF Quincy Scott: 4-4, 2 2B, .226/.326/.356
1B Arturo Disla: 2-5, SB (2), .222/.288/.352

Lopez’s outing was shortened by rain.

Hi-A: Hub City 2, @ Winston-Salem (CHW) 1 (7)
Hub City: 4 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 1 hit, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 5-6, 1.5 GB, 36-40 overall

SP Josh Trentadue: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 69 P / 36 S, 1.20 ERA
RP Joey Danielson: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2.63 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-3, 2 SB (11), .217/.315/.355
C Julian Brock: 1-3, HR (2), .215/.286/.305

Trentadue struck out seven of 15 batters.

Hub City hitters not named Keith Jones are hitting a collective .212/.293/.312, a 78 OPS+.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, at Kannapolis (CHW) 2
Hickory: 7 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts
Record: 8-3, 1 GB, 41-35 overall

SP Enrique Segura: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 70 P / 45 S, 3.45 ERA
RP Jesus Gamez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.69 ERA
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-4, HR (4), SB (21), .240/.357/.328

I’m not sure what we have in Enrique Segura, but when he’s throwing strikes, we have something to talk about. He’s walked 11 in 31.1 innings, well below the league average, although the addition of five hits batter undercuts his overall control.

Yeremi Cabrera celebrated his 20th birthday with a homer.

Box Scores

My Monday report doesn’t appear to have gone through. Here it is.

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Sugar Land (HOU) 2
Round Rock: 5 hits, 8 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-2, 1 GB, 39-43 overall

SP Patrick Murphy: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 11 P / 7 S, 3.38 ERA
RP Joe Barlow: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 4.97 ERA
RP Luis Curvelo: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.77 ERA
RP Craig Kimbrel: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 43.86 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 1-3, 2 BB, .245/.341/.365
SS Cody Freeman: 1-3, 2B, BB, .319/.373/.495

More promotions, beginning with outfielder Aaron Zavala and reliever Skylar Hales to Round Rock from Frisco. Zavala’s is already a victory, coming after an early-2023 brace surgery that capsized his career, leaving him floundering in the water amongst sharks and labored metaphors. He looked done, frankly, but his and organization’s perseverance have produced a rebound and deserved bump to AAA. Zavala struck out three times in four trips to the plate in his debut, and that’s always an occupational hazard for him because of both patience and some miss in his swing.

Hales, drafted in 2023’s 4th round, established himself as a relief prospect from the get-go. He hasn’t dominated quite to the extent I’d originally hoped but is one step from the Majors less than two years from being selected. He fanned over 30% of opponents in AA with an opposing line of .223/.305/.351 but had a 5.26 ERA because his occasional bad days sometimes get away from him.

Also to Round Rock is Kohl Drake, likely Texas’s best pitching prospect among those healthy and currently in action.

AA: Frisco 5, Arkansas (SEA) 6
Frisco: 11 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 2-5, 2 GB, 40-35 overall

SP Ben Anderson: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 88 P / 56 S, 4.13 ERA
RP Jackson Kelley: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 3.00 ERA
1B Jake Burger: 1-3, BB
RF Keith Jones II: 2-5, HR (1)
DH Abi Ortiz: 1-5, HR (10), .218/.329/.383
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, HR (7), SB (21), .239/.321/.400

Up to AA in his first full professional season is 2024 9th-rounder Keith Jones II. On a statistical basis, Jones was Texas’s best minor league hitter in the season’s first half, hitting .270/.406/.451 for high-A Hub City. With some patience, pop and speed, he’s at least quality upper-level depth. Jones does tend to hit a bunch of grounders, but that hasn’t muted his output yet.

Hi-A: suspended

To be completed today.