AAA: Round Rock 6, at Oklahoma City (LAD) 5 Round Rock: 13 hits, 8 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 13 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts Record: 4-8, 4 GB
SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 76 P / 53 S, 5.79 ERA RP Emiliano Teodo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 6.00 ERA RP Peyton Gray: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Gavin Collyer: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.18 ERA CF Tyler Wade: 3-5, BB, .289/.356/.316 2B Justin Foscue: 3-6, 2B, .319/.373/.468 LF Trevor Hauver: 2-4, BB, .289/.407/.356 DH Willie MacIver: 1-3, HR (1), 2 BB, .120/.353/.240 RF Aaron Zavala: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, .231/.344/.308
Shaky early but ultimately effective, Emiliano Teodo pounded the zone with a slider while mostly missing wide or low with a a sinker that topped at 99.7. Teodo missed on his first six pitches and needed a challenge to avoid a seventh (on a pitch that caught about three microns of the zone). After the initial walk, he threw four sliders on subsequent three-ball counts, all for strikes.
Marc Church lasted an uncommonly low 13 pitches, giving up four consecutive hits, none of them what I’d call lucky but also not especially hard.
Cam Cauley has started six games at short, two at second, two at third and once in center. Michael Helman has started three of the last four games at short after a week in center. Alejandro Osuna has mostly manned right and center, while Aaron Zavala has split between the outfield corners.
Cam Cauley is 2-for-21 with three walks and seven strikeouts in his last five games after starting .273/.407/.455. Willie MacIver is 3-for-7 with a homer and two walks after going hitless in his first six games. This is why I don’t publish slash stats and ERAs until at least ten games have been played. Long season.
SP Winston Santos: 2.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 53 P / 35 S RP Eric Loomis: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO RP Zack Bryant: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO 2B Frainyer Chavez: 4-5 DH Julian Brock: 2-5, HR (1) CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-4, 2B, HR (2), BB
Dylan Dreiling homered, to the opposite field, again. He later was given permission to pull and banged a sharp fly off the right-center wall for a double. He’s at .360/.448/.640 in his first six games, not quite the best of his career over such a stretch but pretty close, and he’s doing it at a higher level.
Winston Santos made his first appearance. He’s on a limited diet after suffering a broken wrist fielding a comebacker. The runners who scored reached on fairly soft contact. He missed nine bats with his fastball/slider/change combo.
Zack Bryant? Zack Bryant! I offered an admittedly perfunctory review of the offseason righty signing over the winter; he’ll be 28 in June and had 109 less-than-enthralling AA innings on his ledger. During his 1-2-3 6th, announcers Zach Bigley and Jack Smith mostly discussed ex-Rider/current-Marlin Liam Hicks, as one does. In the 7th, Bryant didn’t allow them time to mention much at all, because he accomplished an immaculate inning (video). Fastball in the 97-98 range, slider, maybe a cutter.
SP J’Briell Easley: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 18 P / 14 S RP Joe Adametz: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO RP Cole Stasio: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO SS Luke Hanson: 1-2, BB, SB (1)
26-year-old LHP Joe Adametz was a 2022 14th-rounder released by Detroit in January and signed by Texas just as Spring Training began.
Bad news: That injury to OF Anthony Gutierrez in the second inning of Opening Day will cost him the season. He suffered a torn ligament in his knee per local media. Gutierrez has never played more than 89 games in a season, and even that was diminished by an arm injury that prevented him from playing in the outfield for three months.
When I first saw the name “Louis Marinaro” I said “Jersey or Staten Island,” but in fact he was born about 30 miles north of the NJ border and north of the Bronx in Somers, NY. What a disappointment. The undrafted St. John’s lefty deals a low-slot, low-90s fastball and a tight slider that should play well at the level barring control issues.
The Crawdads have a winning record but are slugging .284 and still seeking their first homer. Among the busier players, OF Paulino Santana is leading with a .364/.440/.500 line including three of the team’s nine doubles.
AAA: Round Rock 6, at Oklahoma City (LAD) 2 Round Rock: 12 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts Record: 3-8, 4 GB
SP Trey Supak: 4.1 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 84 P / 49 S, 5.91 ERA RP Michel Otañez: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 4.91 ERA RP Josh Sborz: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1.59 ERA RP Ryan Brasier: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 0 SO, 2.08 ERA RF Alejandro Osuna: 2-4, .289/.340/.422 LF Trevor Hauver: 3-5, SB (1), .268/.388/.341 CF Cameron Cauley: 2-4, BB, SB (4), .211/.348/.316 DH Willie MacIver: 2-4, SB (1), .091/.310/.091
Josh Sborz was effective again, if a little less strike-prone than usual. To be more accurate, the fish weren’t biting outside the zone as much. I’ve discussed the velocity at length, probably too much. His did reach a new peak a few days ago, but for at least the short run, he probably is who he is. The question is whether that’s enough.
Sborz has allowed a single run and five runners in 5.2 innings. Super. His walk rate is 9%, the strikeout rate 22%. Swell. On the other hand, most of Sborz’s Statcast and other markers are at or near the PCL averages. With the caveat that samples are small, opponents have chosen to swing at pitches inside and outside the zone at league-average rates, and miss rates are similar. His hard-hit rate is average, although he’s been able to ward off the hardest contact. On the downside, he’s been quite fly-prone, and his first-pitch strike rate is just 36%.
So, the basic stats are great, and the underlying data is… fine. Despite the 3-8 team record, the Express bullpen has been quite strong, so Sborz doesn’t stand out from most of the rest in terms of a potential call-up. The situation is complicated by the situation in Arlington. Who would he replace? Pure relievers with options are Luis Curvelo and Robert Garcia. (Whatever his role, Jacob Latz is as safe as they come right now.) Curvelo was just recalled and pitched well. Garcia has been annoying, but demoting him now seems a bit hasty, and Sborz hasn’t made a definitive case as a better choice.
Sborz can (but doesn’t have to) opt out of his deal on the 15th. We’ll see.
SP Blake Townsend: 3.2 IP, 5 H (4 HR), 5 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 67 P / 41 S RP Bryan Magdaleno: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO RP Jonathan Brand: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO CF Dylan Dreiling: 3-4 C Julian Brock: 2-4, 2B
Frisco will not finish the season 138-0. The lefty-swinging Dylan Dreiling has been extraordinarily oppo-oriented so far, collecting last night’s three singles, last week’s homer and probably more on shots to left.
SP Enrique Segura: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 46 P / 25 S RP Brock Porter: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO RP Thomas Ireland: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO RP Joey Danielson: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO 3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-4, HR (1) 1B Arturo Disla: 3-4, 2 2B 2B Antonis Macias: 1-3, HR (1)
In relief of Enrique Segura, Brock Porter walked his first opponent and hit the next, but he more-or-less recovered afterwards, sometimes dealing some nifty sliders. The lone hit was dubious, a fly down the line to right that apparently was believed foul by everyone (even the Greenville batter and runner on 1st) except the plate ump. (The stands prevented a definitive view from the camera.)
21-year-old Antonis Macias hit his third professional homer in 201 games. He’s resumed duty at second, where he played frequently at low-A Hickory but not once in 16 high-A games last summer.
Catcher Malcolm Moore (1-4) doubled sharply to right-center.
SP Aidan Deakins: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 59 P / 36 S RP Geury Rodriguez: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO
2024 13th-round LHP Aidan Deakins had a nice start. The lone walk and HBP are noteworthy. Deakins walked only eight in 38 complex-level innings in 2025, but his stints at Hickory last summer (19 IP, 12 BB+HBP), Wabash Valley College and summer leagues didn’t indicate great control.
Today’s Starters AAA: AA: Hi-A: Lo-A:
Five Years Ago Yesterday I reported on two “alternate site” minor league games between the Rangers and Astros in Round Rock. These were equivalent to extended spring training but involved mostly AAA players. In late February, AAA teams announced their schedules that were to begin at the usual time in early April, but the other leagues wouldn’t commence until May. For various reasons, reaction within and outside the industry was skeptical, and MLB rescinded the AAA schedules just eight days later. Instead, all levels would begin in May with a reduced 120 games on the slate (and several teams would lose more than ten games to widespread covid outbreaks).
In the early afternoon before the game listed above, I’d driven to Killeen to get my covid booster because I couldn’t get an appointment in Austin. My wife got her second shot in Rockdale, of all places. Such were the times.
As for the games, IF Anderson Tejeda homered once and struck out several times. He would soon be in Arlington, batting second and playing third base, but before long he would return to Round Rock and then Frisco as his contact rate collapsed. Remarkably, a mid-September game at the complex would be his last as a professional at the age of 23. Korean righty Hyeon-jong Yang threw two scoreless innings, but my view was askance: “I don’t believe his repertoire on Wednesday would fare well against an MLB lineup.” He, too would be in Arlington in a couple of weeks and post a 5.60 ERA in 35 innings. (He returned to Korea and is still active at the age of 38.)
The 2021 Rangers were not very good.
Adolis Garcia didn’t do anything of consequence in Round Rock but had a great spring overall and had his contract purchased by the Rangers a few days later. Lefty Brett Martin pitched well in a warmup before joining the Rangers. I liked what I saw of Spencer Patton despite a homer allowed, and by June he’d return to the Majors for the first time since 2016 (He’d spent four seasons in Japan.) RHP Cole Uvila looked like a Major Leaguer but didn’t quite make it. Unfortunately, Mike Matuella’s fastball velocity had dwindled from the occasional triple digits of 2018 to the 89-92 range. He didn’t receive an assignment and would be released in mid-May. (I still think he was a good pick.) The revelation was RHP Jake Lemoine, whose fastball improved from the low 90s in early 2017 (coming off nearly two years lost to injury) to 93-95 in 2019, and 95-99 in front of me in April 2021.
AAA: Round Rock 3, at Oklahoma City (LAD) 4 Round Rock: 7 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 2-8, 5 GB
SP Austin Gomber: 2.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 79 P / 53 S, 10.13 ERA RP Patrick Murphy: 2.2 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 2.84 ERA RP Alexis Diaz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Gavin Collyer: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.86 ERA RF Alejandro Osuna: 2-4, .268/.333/.415
Gomber’s opposing hit quality isn’t too alarming, but the combination of quantity and (possible) bad luck is killing him. His 6% swinging strike rate is the lowest on the team. Four swings at Patrick Murphy’s slider resulted in three whiffs and one weak groundout, although Nick Senzel did send a fastball to the seats.
Gavin Collyer threw nine strikes in a ten-pitch 9th. Contra last year’s frequent control issues, his strike rate in 2026 is… 78%?! Wait a minute… (looks over data and formulas in spreadsheet, checks against other sources)… Yes, 78%. That won’t last and doesn’t even need to. I was just hoping for the low sixties, and anywhere in the mid-sixties would be great.
SP Josh Trentadue: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 61 P / 44 S RP Wilian Bormie: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO RP Ryan Lobus: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO C Ian Moller: 2-4, HR (1)
In the spring, Josh Trentadue reminded that his most pressing short-term issue was declining control upon reaching the upper minors, but last night he had no trouble finding the plate. Wilian Bormie has mimicked Collyer strike prowess. Last year, he walked or hit 15% of opposing batters, although he did close the season in AA with four straight clean outings.
Frisco has allowed one run per game, the best mark in the minors. The Riders are also scoring 6.25 runs per game. When rosters were announced two weeks ago, I didn’t have a glowing review of the position players in terms of prospect status, but they’re a relatively older and experienced group that could cause some damage. 3B Frainyer Chavez doubled, walked twice and stole a base, and SS Keyber Rodriguez and 1B Tucker Mitchell collected two hits apiece.
Texas released IF Jack Blomgren from Frisco. He’d signed in February after six years in the Colorado and Houston systems. Danyer Cueva has replaced him.
SP Aidan Curry: 4 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 68 P / 52 S RP Luke Savage: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO CF Paxton Kling: 2-3, BB 1B Arturo Disla: 1-4, HR (1)
For the first time in 26 full-season appearances, Aidan Curry issued no walks in an outing of at least four innings. (He did accomplish the feat last summer in rookie ball.) Undrafted out of high school in 2020, Curry chose the pros over college and was one of Texas’s better (if not top tier) pitching prospects entering 2024, but that year was plagued by homers, and 2025 included a month in Arizona. He’s still here and still starting, an indication of Texas’s regard for the 23-year-old.
OF Quincy Scott has been IL’ed and replaced by Wady Mendez.
SP Aneudis Mejia: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 31 P / 15 S RP Wily Villar: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO RP Frank Martinez: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO RP JD McReynolds: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO 3B Angel Arredondo: 1-3, BB, HBP CF Deward Tovar: 1-4, 2B, BB, SB (2) C Josh Springer: 2-4, SB (1)
Aneudis Mejia’s start is an exemplar of the “too many pitches” situation I described in the Report Primer. Kannapolis drew air on ten on 17 swings against JD McReynolds, the 2025 10th-rounder from Central Missouri. The Cannon Ballers mostly stared at his low-90s fastball and found themselves helpless against his slider and change.
Down 3-1 in the 8th, Hickory scored on a balk and sac fly aided by a double from Tovar and singles from Paulino Santana (2-4) and Springer. In the 9th, CF Marcos Torres (1-4, walk), singled, stole second and scored on a single from SS Yolfran Catillo (1-4, walk).
Elsewhere Righty Zak Kent appeared in a couple of games for Minnesota, allowing nine runners and five runs (two earned) in 3.2 innings before being optioned. Texas had claimed and then lost Kent on waivers over the winter.
The White Sox purchased the contract of OF Dustin Harris to replace the injured Austin Hays. Harris was hitting .304/.385/.348 for AAA Charlotte.
Colorado optioned 1B Blaine Crim to AAA Albuquerque. He’d been on rehab after an spring oblique injury.
Righties Hans Crouse (Baltimore) and Yerry Rodriguez (Yankees) are rehabbing in their respective systems while on minor league deals.
Toronto recalled RHP Patrick Corbin from low-A Dunedin. Corbin had voluntarily agreed to an assignment to the minors to get some work in after signing last week.
SP Dane Acker: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 41 P / 28 S, 0.00 ERA RP Emiliano Teodo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 9.00 ERA RP Ryan Brasier: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Josh Sborz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.93 ERA CF Alejandro Osuna: 1-4, SB (2), .243/.317/.405 DH Justin Foscue: 1-4, 2B, .333/.389/.515
It’s early, but after Emiliano Teodo’s first two outings, I was wondering how many more of similar fashion would result in reassignment to Arizona. He’s been around a while, so Frisco seems less likely. He should either be facing top-level competition or rebooting at the complex. Out of the blue, yesterday brought the return of the early-2025 version of Teodo who was on the cusp of his MLB debut. (Maybe no call-up was imminent, but he was pitching at that level.) Teodo fanned the side swinging in order on 15 pitches, 11 for strikes. Teodo emphasized the slider, picking up four calls, two misses and two fouls. He also missed a bat with his lone 89 MPH changeup.
In a clean 9th, Josh Sborz peaked at 95.5 MPH, throwing two pitches faster than anything else this spring and eight above his previous regular-season high of 93.8. He missed three bats on five swings against that heater.
Round Rock’s 2-7 mark is the worst by Texas’s AAA squad after nine games since 2018. The current version has been outscored by 16 runs, while the elder team had a -42 differential.
Albuquerque scored a total of 11 runs in a six-game home series against Reno, losing four. The Isotopes scored 11 or more runs in 16 individual games in 2025, and 19 the season before.
SP Cal Quantrill: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 76 P / 49 S RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO RP Peyton Gray: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO LF Trevor Hauver: 2-3, 2 BB C Jose Herrera: 1-3, HR (1), BB DH Cooper Johnson: 2-3, 2B, BB
Cal Quantrill lowered Gwinnett’s previous average of one run per inning against Round Rock’s starters. Not only did Peyton Gray not miss any bats with his changeup, all three swings resulted in a ball in play, one for a hit. He was otherwise effective.
The umpire called a generous zone, but the hitters weren’t having it, challenging nine called strikes and getting six overturned. This system is new to MLB vets, but upcoming umps will have years of familiarity and training.
AA: Frisco 1, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 0 Frisco: 8 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts Record: 3-0
SP David Davalillo: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 71 P / 56 S SS Keyber Rodriguez: 3-4, 2B
I’ve mentioned the lack of suitable options if Texas needs a starter from AAA. I wasn’t including Cody Bradford on the depth chart when writing about that, but in any case, the answer might involve bypassing Round Rock for David Davalillo. I’m sure Texas wouldn’t want him up so soon, but he might be the best available. He generally runs low 90s and lacks a monster pitch, but he can comfortably lean on anything in a broad repertoire. He missed a relatively low six bats but threw well-located strikes in abundance.
OF Keith Jones II, who’d DH’ed the last two days, was placed on the Injured List.
SP Ismael Agreda: 4 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 67 P / 37 S RP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO RP Joey Danielson: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO RF Maxton Martin: 3-4, 2 2B, BB CF Paxton Kling: 2-4, BB
Maxton Martin singled in the 1st on Friday. Hub City didn’t collect another hit until Martin’s 3rd-inning double, and after 12 innings his teammates were 0-for-33 with 15 strikeouts. The offense finally awakened in the 4th with two hits (but no runs) and then a five-run 5th on three walks and another two hits capped by Paxton Kling’s homer.
Will I need to pin “Ismael Agreda missed X bats but lacked control” to my Windows clipboard? We’ll see. Last night, X = 12.
OF Anthony Gutierrez was placed on the IL after Friday’s injury. RHP DJ McCarty was also IL’ed without making an appearance.
The Frederick Keys were Baltimore’s high-A affiliate from 1989 through 2019. After the lost 2020 and MiLB’s reorganization, Baltimore shifted to Aberdeen while Frederick became a Draft League squad. In 2026, Aberdeen and Frederick switched roles.
SP AJ Russell: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 31 P / 22 S RP Alejandro Chiquillo: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO RP Moises Morales: 4 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO RP Louis Marinaro: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO CF Marcos Torres: 1-3, 3B, BB, SB (1) LF Paulino Santana: 3-4, SB (2) C Josh Springer: 1-2, 2 BB
AJ Russell made a successful pro debut, retiring six straight batters, three swinging on fastballs, and missing four other bats. Per longtime observer and Friend of The Report Mark Parker, Russell’s fastball ran 95-96 in the 1st and 93-94 in the 2nd, and he mixed in some sliders and a curve. Following Russell was 23-year-old righty Alejandro Chiquillo, who threw at similar velocity. Chiquillo, signed at the age of 21 out of Venezuela, struck out 37 in 29 complex innings last year but was hittable.
Today’s Starters AAA: TBD AA: off Hi-A: Curry Lo-A: off
SP Josh Stephan: 4 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 82 P / 52 S RP Gavin Collyer: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO RP Alexis Diaz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO
I wasn’t thinking “worst team in the league” when I saw the initial roster, and I don’t now, but here we are for the moment. Among the pitchers, I will say my focus was on the relievers because more of them are under consideration for helping in Arlington. So far, as a group, they’ve performed well. The difference between starters (including Trey Supak’s 4-inning tandem with the rehabbing Cody Bradford) and relievers is vast:
The Express are hitting .211/.322/.315. The good news is the three best are Justin Foscue (.345/.406/.517), Cam Cauley (.273/.407/.455) and Alejandro Osuna (.250/.344/.464). Unfortunately, catcher Willie MacIver is off to one of the dire starts I mentioned in the “luck” section of my Primer: 0-for-16 with four walks and a hit-by-pitch. Aaron Zavala had a great spring, but my uneasiness about his miss rate has borne out so far: .222/.286/.278 with 10 strikeouts in 18 plate appearances.
As for last night, Alexis Diaz regained the slider that was otherwise the only drawback to a strong performance earlier in the week. Five thrown, four swings, four misses. The fastball lacked the earlier velocity, though, maxing at 94.6 instead of 97.
AA: Frisco 10, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 2 Frisco: 12 hits, 5 walks, 15 strikeouts Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts Record: 2-0
SP Dylan MacLean: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 73 P / 48 S RP Josh Trentadue: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-4, HR (1) 1B Tucker Mitchell: 2-4, 2 2B, BB
Frisco sent 15 to the plate and scored ten in the 5th. Dylan Dreiling swatted his first AA homer the opposite way. I didn’t see it that way off the bat, but neither did LF James Nelson, who stood still before making a belated rush to the wall. At game time, the wind was blowing right-to-left at 19 MPH. Later in the inning he grounded past short for a single.
In his AA debut, Dylan MacLean missed 11 bats, well toward the upper end if not the most he accomplished in 2025. MacLean is in his seventh in the organization, being drafted in 2020’s fourth round.
SP Dalton Pence: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 74 P / 51 S
Dalton Pence missed 16 bats, one shy of a career-best and probably more impressive given the limited pitch count this early in the season.
CF Anthony Gutierrez had to be carted off the field in the 2nd. He, LF Paxton Kling and SS Luke Hanson had converged on a short fly, and while there was no apparent collision, Gutierrez appeared to injure his right leg avoiding Kling. (Hub City was having video and audio trouble at the time, and the view was limited to a very wide shot, so I don’t have a great description.) Gutierrez missed a portion of 2025 with an arm injury and was limited almost entirely to DH thereafter.
Frederick attempted eight steals off catcher Malcolm Moore and various hurlers. Moore nabbed two, slightly above the typical league average.
Max Martin’s 1st-inning soft infield single was the only hit, and only six balls reached the outfield.
SP Jesus Lafalaise: 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 51 P / 34 S RP Luimy Munoz: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO RP Angel Anazco: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO 1B Deward Tovar: 1-3, BB 3B Angel Arredondo: 1-3, BB
Columbia strung together six hits (including two homers) and all five runs off Aneudis Mejia and Jake Jekielek in the 5th. Now 23, righty Luimy Munoz was a relatively old signing and reached the complex in 2024, where he posted an 8.42 ERA despite decent peripherals. He missed last year.
Today’s Starters AAA: Quantrill AA: Davalillo Hi-A: Agreda Lo-A: Russell
SP Cody Bradford: 2 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 27 P / 17 S RP Luis Curvelo: 1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 SO RP Josh Sborz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO RP Ryan Brasier: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO RF Alejandro Osuna: 1-5, HR (1) 2B Cameron Cauley: 1-3, HR (1), 2 BB LF Trevor Hauver: 1-3, 2 BB
The cryptic “could be an interesting game” I appended to yesterday’s AAA report was actually only the front half of the sentence. If you’d printed the report and dipped it in a weak citric acid solution, the full sentence would read “could be an interesting game because Cody Bradford is going to make a rehab appearance.”
Bradford threw about 50% fastballs averaging 90.5 in the 1st and 89.3 in the second. That’s quite a drop, but he’s rehabbing from elbow surgery. Next in line were nine change in the low 80s, a few sliders at the same speed and one 75 curve. He missed five bats. Bradford allowed two towering if not especially hard-hit homers to left and a harder fly from Rowdy Tellez that died a little short.
A one out walk and hard double would both come around to score against Luis Curvelo. Josh Sborz had his standard 2026 outing, effective if not reminiscent of peak form. Ryan Brasier missed five bats on eight swings.
I did not see Bradford’s performance in person, as I’d already committed to staying home with my daughter while my wife socialized with some friends, plus all my World’s Greatest Husband And Father trophies aren’t going to polish themselves.
AA: Frisco 5, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 1 Frisco: 14 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 1-0, tied for first
SP Leandro Lopez: 4.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 6 SO, 73 P / 40 S RP Ryan Lobus: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO RP Eric Loomis: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO RP Wilian Bormie: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO CF Dylan Dreiling: 1-4, BB, SB (1) 2B John Taylor: 2-5, 2B DH Keith Jones II: 2-4 1B Tucker Mitchell: 3-3
Last year, Leandro Lopez’s control was above average for the first time in his career. After Opening Night, he’s already matched least year’s number of four-walk starts. Other than that, he was as dominant as ever, fanning six of 17 batters and generating 12 swinging strikes.
2024 2nd-rounder Dylan Dreiling had a successful AA debut. He laced a single in his first plate appearance and would later walk, steal second and advance to third and home on successive outs.
Last year at this time, John Taylor was waiting for the Atlantic League’s Southern Maryland squad to start the season. Now, he’s hitting .400 in AA.
Wilian Bormie reached 100 last night but emphasized the slider, starting his first opponent with one and freezing the second on a called strike three.
Just a reminder: I’ll list ERAs and slash stats for players once a few more games have occurred.
Hi-A: off
Hub City opens tonight.
Lo-A: Hickory 5, Columbia (KAN) 4 Hickory: 10 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 16 strikeouts Record: 1-0, tied for first
SP Evan Siary: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 SO, 60 P / 48 S, 0.00 ERA RP Michael Trausch: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Geury Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP J.D. McReynolds: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Marcos Torres: 1-3, BB SS Yolfran Castillo: 2-3, 2B, HBP LF Paulino Santana: 1-3, 2B, BB, SB (1) C Josh Springer: 2-4
Siary is last year’s 8th-round pick out of Mississippi state. In last year’s draft report, I wrote that he used “an 89-91 fastball that touches 93 and is tough to pick up, an 83ish slider, a diving mid-80s change, and a 71-78 curve that he can move around and bend into a semi-sweeper.”
Yolfran Castillo lined a double to the wall left of center and softly lined a single to right. The latter was common in 2025, as he actually hit more the opposite way than pulled. I’d love to see more of the former this year. Castillo turned 19 just two months ago.
Your batting hero was Angel Arredondo, also 19, who with two outs in the 7th took three balls after an 0-2 count and then lined to left to plate the tying and go-ahead runs.
Assignments For Last Year’s Traded Prospects LHP Kohl Drake — AAA Reno (ARI) RHP Mitch Bratt — AAA Reno (ARO) RHP David Hagaman — High-A Hillsboro (ARI) RHP Skylar Hales — AAA Memphis (STL) RHP Garrett Horn — High-A Cedar Rapids (MIN), on IL RHP Mason Molina — AA Springfield (STL), a promotion
Today’s Starters AAA: Stephan AA: MacLean Hi-A: Pence Lo-A: Stephan
SP Austin Gomber: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 85 P / 52 S RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO RP Patrick Murphy: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO RP Michel Otañez: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO CF Alejandro Osuna: 2-5 2B Justin Foscue: 1-3, 2B, BB 3B Tyler Wade: 2-3, 2B, BB
The Express trailed 6-0 nearly the entire game but managed to get the winning run to the plate in the 9th when Hayden Harris issued four walks and no one could field Justin Foscue’s wind-blown pop or Alejandro Osuna’s dribbler to second. With the bases loaded and two out, Cam Cauley swung through a couple of balls with the intent of ending the game, but he watched a very close strike three (confirmed via challenge) to end the game.
Marc Church offered a 95-98 fastball, an 86-88 slider and three upper-80s changes. Much his his success is premised on deception. He deals from a newly lowered but still quite high slot, he tends to work vertically, and neither his fastball nor slider have much horizontal movement, so those pitches look the same out of his hand. The changeup could be a worthy addition, I suppose, but the fastball is his foundation. At times in the past, his slider has been nearly unhittable, but his overall results were still subpar because of a fastball either too wild or grooved.
Austin Gomber allowed all the runs in the 2nd, partly on six balls in play at 100 MPH or higher, but he escaped and settled down the rest of the way. Gomber froze a few batters with a mid-70s curve but was mostly reliant on hit placement, as he missed only three bats, and over half of opposing swings resulted in a ball in play.
Hopefully the badly needed rain lets up this evening. Could be an interesting game.
AA: off
Frisco visits Houston-affiliated Corpus Christi tonight. Listed starters for the series are Leandro Lopez, Dylan MacLean and David Davalillo.
Hi-A: off
I’d previously said all the teams below AAA would start Thursday, but Hub City actually waits until Friday.
Lo-A: off
Hickory opens tonight at home against Columbia. The listed starters this week are Evan Siary, Jesus Lafalaise and AJ Russell.
SP Austin Bergner: 4 IP, 2 H (2 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 58 P / 34 S RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO RP Peyton Gray: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO RP Gavin Collyer: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 SO RP Emiliano Teodo: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO RP Alexis Diaz: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO LF Alejandro Osuna: 2-5, 2B DH Trevor Hauver: 3-4, HR (1), BB
In the 6th, I’d seen Emiliano Teodo loosening in the bullpen with the score knotted at two, not with serious intent yet but perhaps heading toward a 7th-inning entry. But when the first two runners reached against Robby Ahlstrom, it was Peyton Gray who immediately warmed in earnest. Ahlstrom escaped with a strikeout and two comebackers.
Gray replaced Ahlstrom and dealt a scoreless 7th and 8th. He missed six bats including four (on six swings) with the changeup. Gavin Collyer entered the 9th up a run. Jose Azocar lined an honest double with one out and reached third on a groundout. Then, on an 0-2 count, Collyer reared back and delivered a 100.5 MPH fastball to the upper-in edge of the zone, but Chadwick Tromp managed to punch it short the opposite way for a game-tying single.
It may just be dumb luck that Gray and Collyer were scheduled to pitch on nights in which high-leverage situations occurred, but it’s also clear that both are trusted in these situations, seemingly more so than Teodo.
Here’s the top speed of everyone who’s reached 100 in an Express uniform since 2022: 101.7 — Alex Speas, 2023 101.2 — Emiliano Teodo, 2024 100.5 — Gavin Collyer, last night 100.3 — Jonathan Hernandez, 2023 100.1 — Yerry Rodriguez, 2022 100.1 — Jack Leiter, 2024
Teodo would enter in the 10th, and unfortunately his outing was just as rough as last Friday’s. He again hit the first batter, and the gift-runner on second would advance to third and home on wild pitches.
Alexis Diaz replaced Teodo with one out and the bases loaded. Given his tumultuous spring, that sounds like gas on a fire, but Diaz was surprisingly solid last Saturday and strongly hinted at the possibility of returning to MLB-level quality. Seven of Diaz’s ten fastballs were hotter than his maximum Arizona speed of 94.7, topped by two at 97 even. Most were either in the zone or near enough to create three misses and two calls. The slider missed another bat but was generally ineffective, and one skipped to the backstop to plate another run. Still, on the whole, some encouraging signs.
Trevor Hauver was compensated for being robbed of a homer on Sunday. Then, his 107 MPH / 30-degree blast somehow traveled only 356 feet. Last night, his 103 / 29 shot bounced off the bullpen canopy well beyond the 407 sign in deepest left-center.
The 28-year-old Bergner had 282 productive AA innings and 88 violent AAA innings (8.22 ERA, 18 homers) entering 2026. He barely escaped the 1st (an annoyingly cheap solo homer, a no-doubt homer, a walk) but needed only 31 pitches to breeze through the next three. Getting him into the MLB starting depth discussion will take some doing, but hopefully he can be a capable AAA starter or swingman.
Your starting lineup:
Other News OF Dairon Blanco passed through waivers and was outrighted to AAA Round Rock. We’ll see whether he accepts.
OF Braylin Morel was placed on the 60-day Injured List. He’d been announced as part of low-A Hickory’s initial roster.
Hickory IF Yolfran Castillo made Baseball America’s list of “50 MLB Prospects Who Impressed Scouts Entering 2026.” ($ link) Gore-Tex Trade Assignments Gavin Fien was assigned to low-A Fredericksburg and is notably listed as an IF/OF. Joining him is OF Yeremi Cabrera, who spent all of 2025 at the same level with solid results. I thought he’d be promoted, but not yet. Getting the assignment to high-A Wilmington is IF Devin Fitz-Gerald despite only 41 games of pro experience including just ten in low-A. 1B Abi Ortiz was already playing for AAA Rochester, and RHP Alejandro Rosario is out the season with elbow issues.
Every year, I publish a primer as a guide to my daily reports: how the minors are structured, how the game is played and managed, what I look for, what stats I follow and ignore. This year’s version is largely rewritten (fewer words, more charts), so I’m presenting it whole instead split across two days.
STRUCTURE AND CONTEXT
Does Winning In The Minors Matter? No. But also yes, a little. Winning is certainly more fun than losing, and some organizations emphasize winning as part of the culture. More to the point, does the quality of a club’s prospects correlate to winning? Here’s the 2025 comparison of a farm’s pre-season ranking (the average of several publications) and the club’s aggregate win rate for their four full-season teams.
Each higher spot in the rankings is worth about 1.2 wins out of an average of 546 games played, and the error bars are large. So, sure, farm talent affects the standings, but only subtly, and you certainly wouldn’t want to conclude that an organization has better prospects simply because it has a better minor league record.
Minor leagues teams are never populated and almost never operated strictly with winning in mind. For example, OF Dylan Dreiling is new to AA and coming off a decent if not stellar 2025 in high-A. Offseason signing and teammate Orlando Martinez is 28 has 468 games at the upper levels. There’s a decent chance he’ll outhit Dreiling in 2026, but (with due respect) he will not be getting at-bats at Dreiling’s expense. At the same time, a huge chunk of plate appearances and batters faced will be taken by players who won’t ever reach the Majors.
In terms of strategy, what we might see during the season are some adjustments late in the first and second halves when a team is facing a tight divisional race. Perhaps a rotation wiggled to give a better starter one more shot, heavier reliance on the best relievers in the high-leverage situations, more pitching changes within innings, maybe even some pinch-hitting.
Park and League Any analysis I provide will be in the context of the environment. Here’s the park-adjusted league averages for Texas’s full-season squads in 2025:
Round Rock is very pitcher-friendly compared to the mountain cities of the Pacific Coast League, but the PCL is absurdly hitter-friendly as a whole, such that judging player performances is perilous business. Hub City played neutral in a pitcher-friendly league in its inaugural season. Slugging .400 means one thing at the lower levels and something entirely different in AAA.
Players hit twice as many homers in AAA as low-A, a combination of physical maturity, the cream rising to the top, a different ball and sometimes more favorable hitting environments.
Starting Pitchers They don’t throw like they used to. In 2007, Texas had five farmhands aged 25 or younger throw at least 150 innings, topped by Andrew Walker with 167. Last year, Jose Gonzalez led the Rangers with just 115, followed by Josh Stephan (111) and David Davalillo (107). The median length of a start among Texas’s four full-season teams was exactly four innings, only 37% lasted five, and just 11% lasted six. That’s a function of the schedule, the more protective nature of development, and expanded rosters containing more relievers needing to throw. The strict one-day-off-per-week schedule instituted in 2021 lends itself toward once-a-week starts instead of every five or six days.
Even so, starting pitchers are supposed to get their work in, so they are often allowed to work through ugly situations that would demand a reliever in the Majors. An early pull is probably due to pitch count rather than results. In general, 30 pitches in an inning is cause for removal, depending on the situation and the pitcher’s age and experience.
Control is much worse in the minors, a subject I’ll revisit later:
Relievers In the minors, relievers are much more likely to work on a relatively fixed schedule than be selected for a particular situation. This is the case even in AAA, ostensibly the final proving ground for MLB. Relievers tend to be given a set one or two innings, and mid-inning changes are uncommon. That said, previous AAA manager Doug Davis was given leave to manage closer to MLB fashion, a departure from previous years. We’ll see how new manager Kyle Moore operates.
Texas’s minor league teams rarely have set closers, and duties might be assigned more on trustworthiness than prospect status. 47 Rangers recorded a save in a full-season game last year, led by the eight of Robby Ahlstrom and Gavin Collyer. In the last 18 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None has ever subsequently saved a Major League game.
A minor league team might have ten or more relievers, so outings on consecutive days are almost unheard of at the lower levels and increasingly rare even in AAA. Back-to-back appearances can be a tell that a pitcher is being readied for promotion to Arlington. Certainly, that would be a newsworthy event for someone like Emiliano Teodo or Marc Church.
Running Recent rules encouraging base-stealing were tested in the minors before their MLB adoption. In 2021, Texas’s Down East affiliate set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. The next year, the Wood Ducks stole 308, setting the low-A record and falling five shy of the most by any minor league team since at least 1990. Since then, 11 other teams have stolen at least 300 led by Aberdeen’s 363 (2.8 per game!).
As a percentage of plate appearances, teams run 50% more often in AAA than MLB and 135% more often in low-A. Despite the extra attempts, the success rate is similar across levels, about 78%.
Substitutes No iron men in the minors, at least not in the Texas system. Hub City’s Casey Cook led the organization in fewest games missed with 12. With few exceptions (say, a young player temporarily filling an injury hole at an upper level), nobody is going to spend an entire week’s worth of games on the bench. Errors and Other Mistakes They’re much more common in the minors:
The preceding chart undersells the disparity. The lower levels also have more fielder’s choices that result in no outs, ill-advised throws to the plate that allow trailing runners to advance, botched rundows, etc.
OBSERVATIONS
What I’m Looking For With Hitters If you’re permitted only one data point to assess a prospect’s status, choose age (relative to others at the same level). Think Sebastian Walcott, Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus getting AA assignments as teenagers.
Of course, players drafted out of college will be older, so dismissing them for being 23 in high-A would be ridiculous. However, the older the player, the higher the expectations. (Incidentally, that a good many college players don’t handle A-level ball reinforces just how hard the pro game is.) Catchers tend to take more time and deserve more patience.
Texas was (in)famous for aggressive assignments during the late 2000s and into the 2010s but eased back toward the end of that decade. Promotions today feel more player-tailored and less driven by organizational culture. However, last year, high-A Hub City was populated with a bunch of 2024 picks who either skipped or barely saw low-A.
In terms of the “slash stats” (average, on-base percentage, slugging), I pay more attention to average in the minors than the Majors. Frequent and authoritative contact matters. The stats mean the least at the lowest levels. (Please don’t “stat scout” the Dominican Summer League.) They grow in importance as players advance, especially for players not expected to help with the glove. There is no quality of defense at first base that will compensate for a weak bat.
The ability to lay off a dubious pitch can define a career. Walks create hitting situations with runners on base, wear down the pitcher, and mitigate inevitable slumps. Overreliance on walks can be a problem, though. Control is often dire at the lower levels, and I don’t blame hitters for falling into a passivity trap. Eventually though, a batter will reach a level at which pitchers generally have acceptable control plus some command, and a passive approach will result in a bunch of uncomfortable two-strike counts.
Strikeouts aren’t a problem, until they are. Mostly, strikeouts don’t hurt any more than other types of outs, but a strikeout rate far above the league average can indicate the hitter might be overwhelmed at a higher level.
In terms of mechanics… look, I’m not a scout and would never present myself as being on that level, but I’ve watched a game or two. Originally, I’d presented a list of questions I’m trying to answer (or at least discuss) when seeing hitters and pitchers in person, but it went on forever. You generally know what scouts are looking for. I’m looking for most the same things. I’m just not a professional.
What I’m Looking For With Pitchers I list Earned Run Average in the daily reports because it’s a nice shorthand, but I’ll try to mention when the pitcher is performing better or worse than that indication. For example, here’s two Texas minor league relievers from 2025:
Pitcher A: 0.75 ERA, 1 HR per 118 batters, 12% BB, 21% SO Pitcher B: 3.88 ERA, 1 HR per 105 batters, 11% BB, 27% SO
The pitchers had a similar homer rate, but B walked slightly fewer and struck out many more, yet his ERA was nearly three runs higher. The performance of Pitcher B (Geraldo Carillo) was slightly better than his ERA suggests. Pitcher A (Cole Winn) wasn’t bad – indeed, he pitched his way back to the Majors — but he was very lucky in terms of ERA. Winn had an 88% strand rate in AAA, unrepeatable in the Majors.
Oh, wait. Winn had a 90% strand rate for Texas last year. That’s unrepeatable, unless Winn is going to be peak-level Edwin Diaz henceforth.
Collectively, homers, walks and strikeouts are more trustworthy indicators of performance than ERA. Homers are tricky because they can vary greatly from year to year, but a pitcher with a high fly rate and tiny homer rate is probably bound for regression. Walks and strikeouts stabilize more quickly.
In recent years, I’ve consistently mentioned the minors’ worsening control along with increasing strikeout rates (which have actually stabilized recently). What I haven’t done is compare the minors to the Majors. Are MLB pitchers walking more as well? Here’s the median rates across all levels for pitchers who start most of the time:
Minor leaguers have gotten much worse as a group, while MLB pitchers have kept trucking along. I’ve yet to test how many current MLB starters had better-than average control in the minors versus requiring substantial improvement. My hunch is the former is more common. Regardless, a minor league starting prospect sitting on an 11% walk rate has work to do. Very few MLB starters succeed with a rate above 10%.
How about relievers:
Yes, control among MLB relievers is worse than starters, but not that much worse. And control by relievers in the minors has always been worse than MLB, but that difference has ballooned recently.
It’s not uncommon to see a minor league reliever thoroughly dominate despite poor control. They walk too many, but they miss so many bats and allow such little contact that the walkers never get to do more than jog to the base and eventually back to the dugout after a third-out K. Examples in the Texas system include Demarcus Evans and Joe Barlow. Pitchers of this type can reach the Majors, but success can be limited. Very few pitchers maintain those minuscule hit rates in the Majors, so the walks eventually cause serious problems.
I don’t necessarily worry about save opportunities, but I do look at who’s getting the high-leverage situations, some of which occur earlier. For example, in Round Rock’s opener last Friday, Peyton Gray and Gavin Collyer entered mid-inning with runners on base in a tight game.
Strikeouts are critical for starters and relievers, of course. A pitcher with a below-average K rate had better have plenty of compensatory abilities, like great control and induction of grounders. Interestingly, relievers used to strike out many more batters than starters, but in recent years that gap has disappeared. Comparing Texas’s low-A leagues from past to present, the 50 busiest starters had a strikeout rate of 19% in 2007 and 25% in 2024. The corresponding figures for the 50 relievers finishing the most games were 25% and 24%.
I usually present a combined walk and HBP rate rather than just walks because hit batters have increased enough to be meaningful. Sometimes, enough to be ridiculous. Low-A Modesto hit 191 batters in 130 games in 2024.
If you want a handy second-order stat, use “K-BB,” which subtracts a pitcher’s BB (or BB+HBP) rate from his SO rate. The best pitchers have high figures, either because they have strikeout ability plus good control or elite bat-missing results that compensate for below-average control.
What I’m Looking For With Fielders Defense is hard to assess in the minors. Basic stats like errors don’t tell a complete picture and are sometimes misleading. Shortstop A might make five more errors than Shortstop B but turn an extra 20 grounders into outs. Give me Shortstop A. All games are televised, but that’s no substitute for watching in person, and in any case even I’m not watching four minors league games in full six nights a week. Maybe when I retire.
Where someone plays is useful information. If Player C is shortstop 80% of the time and Player D splits between second, short and third, that’s worth knowing. If Player C finds himself mostly at second base upon promotion, that’s worth knowing.
Promotions / Demotions Promotions and demotions aren’t made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone else’s spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Released? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are often complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than you’d like because Texas has to sort through all these issues.
Statcast I haven’t talked much about Statcast in the discussions of what I’m looking for, but its deeply ingrained in what I study and write at the AAA level. Are hitters exhibiting contact rates and exit velocities that will thrive outside the friendly Pacific Coast League setting? Are they mauling fastballs and flailing against the rest? Are pitchers getting first strikes, missing bats, avoiding too many flies (or surviving them if not), developing a repertoire broad enough to start?
During Spring Training, I presented a subset of Statcast data for pitchers and hitters on my website, and I intend to do the same for AAA once a large handful of games have been played.
THE REST
Runs Scored, RBI, Pitcher Wins/Losses Ignored except as occasional anecdotes.
Luck Statistical variance in baseball is higher that most people think. Some player you like will start the season 2-for-24 or get roughed up in back-to-back starts. Some player you’ve never thought of will hit .320 in April. An exceptionally poor stretch might be cause for concern, but it might also be plain old variance. Report Tone Texas has 26 active Majors Leaguers. Texas also has over 200 minor leaguers, most of whom won’t reach MLB or make much impact if they do. “Losers,” if you’re being heartless.
I’m not heartless, or at least that’s what I tell myself. Reaching even the A levels is an outstanding achievement. The number of “winners” is ridiculously low. In other industries, opportunities can grow with population and the economy. In MLB, 30 owners control the number of jobs. Since 1998, the US population has grown by 25%, the US Gross Domestic Product has increased an inflation-adjusted 89%, and the number of MLB teams has increased by zero.
Players that don’t make it are not losers. They’ve actually never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with repertoires that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago. There are hitters who would be no worse than capable bench players.
Ultimately, I want to be honest about a player’s likelihood of reaching the Majors and of success at that level, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but I’ll cover anyone having a great day.
Tables! I maintain organizational charts here: the 40-man roster (presented by time of addition), team rosters, Rule 5 timetables, minor league schedules, etc.
Social Media I tend to post much more often to Bluesky than Twitter/X. I cut back sharply on social media in general in 2025, partly for mental health, partly because I was tending to post observations on social media but neglecting to include them in my reports. That’s not fair. I might boost my online output this season, but subscribers come first.
