Category: Daily Report

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 4, at Tacoma (SEA) 5
Round Rock: 9 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 7 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 77-70, eliminated

SP Zak Kent: 4 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 4 R, 5 BB, 3 SO, 85 P / 46 S, 1.67 ERA
RP Fernery Ozuna: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 7.36 ERA
RP Kyle Cody: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 4.08 ERA
LF Ezequiel Duran: 2-5, HR (9), 2 SB (7), .287/.322/.551
SS Davis Wendzel: 1-1, 3 BB, .212/.293/.407

Zak Kent suffered his first poor AAA start, struggling to deal his fastballs for strikes. The strike rate on sliders was below average as well, but he drew a healthy number of swinging strikes with it and surrendered no hits.

As an unfriendly reminder of the grueling pre-2020 schedule, Round Rock has to return from the Seattle area to play at home tonight. The Express host Sugar Land for the next three nights to close the season. El Paso clinched the division on Saturday.

Records through August:
OKC: 72-53
Round Rock: 68-57, -4
El Paso: 66-58, -5.5

Records in September:
El Paso: 18-5
OKC: 9-13, -8.5
Round Rock: 9-13, -8.5

AA: Frisco 11, Wichita (MIN) 3
Frisco: 11 hits, 10 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts
Frisco leads best-of-three finals 1-0

SP Mason Englert: 5.1 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 1 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 77 P / 49 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Josh Smith: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
3B Jonathan Ornelas: 4-5, SB
CF Evan Carter: 0-1, 4 BB, SB
2B Justin Foscue: 2-5
LF Kellen Strahm: 2-5, 3B
C Scott Kapers: 2-5, 2 HR

Providing anecdotal evidence against the cliche that good pitching beats good hitting, Frisco steamrolled a staff that permitted 20% fewer runs than the park-adjusted league average during the regular season. Frisco reached double-digit runs for the 26th time this season, while Wichita allowed ten or more for only the eleventh.

Jonathan Ornelas put the ball in play every time up, fouling off six two-strike pitches en route to four singles. Conversely, Evan Carter drew walks in his first four plate appearances. With them in from of him, Justin Foscue singled home three runs in the first two innings.

Scott Kapers hit a 5th-inning solo homer and a game-icing grand slam in the 6th. In the previews, I described catcher as an offensive weak spot but qualified with Kapers’ ability to get hold of a pitch. Lucky me. Kapers has a career line of .210/.329/.366, but that includes 11 homers in 57 games during 2022.

In his fourth AA start, Mason Englert was in command despite three walks and didn’t permit more than one runner in an inning until the 5th. Josh Smith replaced Englert with two one and one out in the 6th and induced a double-play grounder from Yunior Severino, who’d homered in the 4th.

Wichita’s Kody Funderburk (a Dallas Baptist alum) was drafted in 2018 and has 47 professional starts and 29 relief appearances, including postseason. Yesterday’s start of 1.1 innings was the shortest of his career and second-shortest outing of any type. He also allowed his most walks (4) since mid-June 2021. The bullpen was of no help, allowing another six runs and 13 runners across 6.2 innings. A far cry from their two-game demolition of Tulsa in the semifinals.

Wichita will employ Brent Headrick next and Daniel Gossett in Game 3 if needed. They were the starters in the semifinals. Frisco has yet to announce tomorrow’s starter.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: off

Frisco RoughRiders (74-63) vs. Minnesota-affiliated Wichita Wind Surge (78-59)
Season Run Differential: Frisco +80, Wichita +102
Last 20 Games + Playoffs: Frisco 13-9, Wichita 14-8
Season Series: Tied 6-6

How They Got Here
Frisco won the second-half title with a late run after fading in the first half. In the opening playoff series against San Antonio, Frisco swept the San Antonio Mission by scores of 7-3 and 5-2.  

Wichita’s first-half fate was similar. The Surge were 32-21 and led the northern division by 2.5 games on June 10 but lost 12 of 15 to close the half. Mired at 5-7 to start the second half and 40-40 overall, Wichita closed on a 38-19 tear to grab the second-half title with ease and the league’s best record. Wichita also swept its division foe Tulsa by scores of 11-1 and 17-1.

History  
Frisco’s first postseason trip since 2014 now includes the first title series since 2012. That group included OFs Engel Beltre, Jared Hoying, and Ryan Strausborger, plus IF Leury Garcia. Series starters were Wilfredo Boscan, Cody Buckel, Barrett Loux, and Nick Tepesch. They fell to Springfield 3-1. The Riders won their only title in 2004.

Wichita’s history is short but interesting. The team moved from New Orleans in 2020 into a new stadium  as the AAA affiliate of the Marlins. Covid forced the cancellation of the 2020 season and claimed the life of team owner Lou Schwechheimer. MLB dropped Wichita to AA during the next winter’s minor league reorganization. Now with the Twins, Wichita reached the 2021 championship series with the league’s best record (69-51) but fell to NW Arkansas in five games.  

The two teams didn’t meet in 2021 and split twelve games this season.

Top 30 Prospects on Active Roster per MLB.com / Baseball America
Frisco:
2 / 4.  RHP Jack Leiter
3 / 1.  OF Evan Carter
4 / 5. RHP Owen White
5 / 9.  IF Justin Foscue
7 / 6.  IF Luisangel Acuna
11 / 12. OF Aaron Zavala
14 / 14. LHP Antoine Kelly
17 / nr.  RHP Ricky Vanasco
20 / nr.  IF Thomas Saggese
22 / nr.  IF Jonathan Ornelas
24 / nr.  LHP Avery Weems
30 / nr. RHP Mason Englert

Wichita:
1 / 1. SS Brooks Lee
12 / 11. OF Austin Martin
14 / 10. IF Edouard Julien
25 / 20. RHP Blayne Enlow
27 / nr. RHP Casey Legumina
28 / 30. RHP Steven Cruz

Frisco’s ranked prospect list was already the most impressive I’d ever seen, and that was before Owen White was activated.

The big name for Wichita is SS Brooks Lee, picked eight overall in this year’s draft and promoted to AA after the high-A season ended. Lee batted .289/.395/.454 at high-A Cedar Rapids. Martin was selected fifth overall the year before, then traded from the Jays with others for Jose Berrios. An older teammate of Leiter and Rocker in college and extraordinary contact hitter, Martin was a consensus top-100 prospect the last two springs but has fallen in the rankings thanks to a second straight ordinary and worrying performance.

Offense / Frisco Position Players
Frisco Offense: +3% runs scored, .265/.350/.439, 105 OPS+, 102 wRC+
Wichita Offense: -7% runs scored, .261/.356/.427, 98 OPS+, 97 wRC+

Frisco:
C Scott Kapers / David Garcia
1B Trevor Hauver / Frainyer Chavez
2B Luisangel Acuna
3B Thomas Saggese
SS Jonathan Ornelas
LF Kellen Strahm
CF Evan Carter
RF Aaron Zavala
DH Justin Foscue
Also OF Josh Stowers

Frisco’s offense is uncommonly stacked despite losing several key performers to promotion or injury. The Riders averaged 8.6 runs per game in September and batted .292/.425/.477 in the San Antonio series.

The positional choices against San Antonio held some intrigue. Justin Foscue DH’ed both games in favor of Luisangel Acuna at second and Thomas Saggese at third. Trevor Hauver did start at first as I expected, but only once, while Frainyer Chavez drew the other start. Scott Kapers and David Garcia split duties.

Wichita:
C Jair Camargo
1B Alex Isola
2B Edouard Julien
3B Yunior Severino
SS Aaron Martin
LF Anthony Prato
CF DaShawn Keirsey
RF Leobaldo Cabrera
DH Brooks Lee
Also C Kyle Schmidt, IF Seth Gray, IF Will Holland

Wichita trotted out the same lineup in both nights of its semifinal series. The Surge scored 28 runs, hit eight homers, and slugged .743 against Tulsa. Scary. But also atypical.

Wichita was seventh of ten teams in runs scored but worst after adjusting for its mildly hitter-friendly park. The underlying stats aren’t nearly as bad, however, at or very near the league averages. Wichita’s OPS was 24 points above the league median with nobody on but 28 points below with runners in scoring position. (The Riders and Surge had nearly same number of walks and singles in RISP situations, but Frisco had an additional 32 extra base hits. That’s a lot!) I’d chalk that to variance rather than skill or, God forbid, mental fortitude.

2B Edouard Julien is the best combination of OBP and power. Julien batted .300/.441/.490 with a 20% BB/HBP rate and 39 extra-base hits. 1B Alex Isola (.286/.377/.471, 10 HR in 58 games) is the other all-around type. Catcher Jair Camargo (.239/.306/.472) has the best homer rate with 12 in 46 games, and Yair Severino (.273/.338/.497) isn’t far behind, but both are more strikeout-prone and less inclined to walk.

DaShawn Keirsey is the prominent base thief (42 in 121 games), followed by Austin Martin (34 in 90 games), and then Julien and Anthony Prado to lesser extents. Frisco won’t have to deal with Wichita’s best hitter, Matt Wallner, who jumped to AAA St. Paul ten days ago. The 2019 39th-overall pick batted .299/.436/.597 with 21 homers in 78 games.

On the whole, I’d say Wichita’s offense isn’t good but closer to average than its worst-in-league run production would suggest.  

Pitching / Possible Rotation
Frisco: 8% better than avg. in runs allowed, .247/.337/.400 oppo line, 92 OPS+, 12% BB/HBP, 24% SO)
Wichita : 20% above avg. in runs allowed, .247/.334/.384 oppo line, 82 OPS+, 12% BB/HBP, 25% SO)

Frisco:
1: Mason Englert (4.11 ERA, .237/.308/.356, 8% BB/HBP, 31% SO)
2. Jack Leiter (5.54 ERA, .247/.359/.381 opposing line, 13% BB/HBP rate, 26% SO rate)
3: Cody Bradford (5.01 ERA, .248/.304/.427, 7% BB/HBP, 25% SO)

Like Wichita, Frisco hasn’t announced starters past Game 1. I’ve listed the two semifinal starters, both of whom could appear on normal rest because of all the off-days. Seth Nordlin is another solid choice, but like the semifinals, the team may be better served with him available to pitch twice in relief. Other options are Antoine Kelly (very walk-prone, moved to relief late in season), Avery Weems (talented but highly erratic), and Ricky Vanasco (new to AA like Englert and less steady). I’m assuming Owen White will be limited to relief.

The bullpen that I politely maligned in the semifinal preview saved Game 1, holding San Antonio scoreless for five innings as the offense mounted a comeback. Nick Starr will handle closing duties without worry, and Nordlin is reliable. Having White back helps, even if he’s limited to one or two one-inning bursts.

Wichita:
1: Kody Funderburk (2.94 ERA, .244/.328/.357, 11% BB/HBP, 22% SO)
2: Cody Laweryson (1.06 ERA, .197/.255/.264, 7% BB/HBP, 31% SO)
3: Brent Headrick (4.81 ERA, .273/.319/.512, 6% BB/HBP, 32% SO)

I’m guessing after Game 1. Laweryson was part of the September rotation and threw three relief innings in the semifinals. Headrick started the first game in the semis. If I’m wrong about someone, the likely substitute is semifinal Game 1 starter Daniel Gossett (2.24 ERA), who had 115 MLB innings with the Athletics in 2017-2018. Despite the lack of ranked prospects, the group is strong. Headrick is the hardest thrower (mid-90s) and is better than his line, which is permanently scarred by a seven-run, five-homer outing to begin his term in AA. He and Laweryson are fly-prone, while Funderburk and Gossett deliver more grounders. Laweryson is easily the most entertaining, fearlessly pounding the upper half of the zone with a spasmodically delivered 89-91 fastball and mixing in an upper-70s slider and change with plenty of unpredictable movement.

Casey Legumina abruptly shifted from starter to 9th-inning man a month ago. In his current role, he’s saved three games and posted a 2.55 ERA with an opposing line of .229/.290/.357 and a 34% strikeout rate. Alex Phillips is another successful late-inning reliever, while Blayne Enlow has struggled with a 6.06 ERA and plenty of hits since switching to relief. The middle portion of the pen is walk-prone but passable in other respects.

Like most teams, Wichita has lost several strong contributors along the way, but the remaining staff is still quite good, and vastly better than San Antonio’s collection.

Defense
Even accounting for the pitching staff’s fly tendencies, Wichita is poor at turning double plays compared to the Riders. Wild pitches and passed balls are also a problem for the Surge. In other respects, Frisco rates nearly equal or better.

Park Factors
Frisco – 1.00
Wichita – 1.04

Advantages / Outlook
Offense – Frisco
Pitching – Wichita
Defense – Frisco

A tough call, as always compounded by the random nature of the best-of-three and my asymmetric knowledge of the two teams. One pitcher having an exceptionally good or bad day can determine the champion. If Leiter starts Tuesday, he’ll be on the mound with either Frisco or Wichita facing elimination.

Wichita is certainly better than San Antonio, especially its arms, and  is 41-19 in the last 60 games. The Surge also have home field advantage, although that doesn’t include starting the series at home. These are the league’s two best teams, and either is a worthy champion.

This is genuinely a coin flip to me, so I’ll put my imaginary $100 on the Riders and hope for the best.

Most Recent Texas-Affiliated Championship Teams
AAA: 1996 Oklahoma City 89ers
AA: 2004 Frisco RoughRiders
Hi-A: 2017 Down East Wood Ducks (co-champion)
Lo-A: 2015 Hickory Crawdads
Short-A: 2008 Spokane Indians
Rookie: 2019 Rangers
DSL: 2014 Rangers

Rangers Farm Report: Games of Saturday 24 September
Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 7, at Tacoma (SEA) 6
Round Rock: 10 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 8 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 77-69, eliminated

SP Kohei Arihara: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 37 P / 23 S, 4.86 ERA
RP Chase Lee: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 5.64 ERA
1B Blaine Crim: 2-5, .317/.341/.341
3B Davis Wendzel: 3-4, HR (17), BB, .209/.285/.405

Kohei Arihara made what could be his final appearance in the organization. Since he stayed only two innings, I suppose he’s available for Tuesday or Wednesday. Blaine Crim is making contact but still seeking his first AAA extra-base hit. Davis Wendzel is hitting .228/.289/.489 in 38 games off the IL. Much more power, not much improvement in reaching base.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Kent
AA: Englert

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, at Tacoma (SEA) 4
Round Rock: 5 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 76-69, eliminated

SP Lucas Jacobsen: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 20 P / 13 S, 2.25 ERA
RP Spencer Howard: 5 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 4.17 ERA
RP Drew Strotman: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 9.00 ERA
LF Ezequiel Duran: 1-4, 2B, .283/.316/.543

Round Rock has lost eight of ten on the road trip. Opener Lucas Jacobsen struck out the side around an error and walk. The Rainers swung at nine pitches and came up empty on five. Spencer Howard pitched well more often than not, but the “not” included two homers.

Waiver-claimed Drew Strotman made his first appearance. 92-95 FB, 85-90 cutter/slider, low-80s curve.

Seattle OF prospect Cade Marlowe, signed out of Division II West Gerogia for the princely sum of $5,000, has three homers in three nights. Marlowe homered twice against Frisco while in AA Arkansas.

AA: off
The Texas League championship series begins Sunday in Frisco.
Elsewhere
Texas’s low-A and high-A leagues were won by Tampa Bay affiliates (Bowling Green, Charleston) for the second straight year. Charleston defeated Down East in five games last year. The Rays are quite the organization.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Miller
AA: off

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, at Tacoma (SEA) 10
Round Rock: 5 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 76-68, eliminated

SP Cole Winn: 5 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 7 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 90 P / 59 S, 6.42 ERA
RP Ryder Ryan: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.72 ERA
RP Kyle Cody: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 4.32 ERA
RF Elier Hernandez: 3-4, .299/.356/.528

With the caveat that I haven’t see a second of last night’s outing, Cole Winn appears to have been very much on his game for five innings, after which the troubles returned. Winn cleared five on 64 pitches, walked none, and faced only two over the minimum.

Unfortunately, his 6th proceeded double, single, single, homer, walk, walk.  Still, that’s probably his lengthiest dominant stretch of the season.

AA: Frisco 5, San Antonio (SDG) 2
Frisco: 7 hits, 10 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts
Frisco wins best-of-three semifinal 2-0

SP Cody Bradford: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 SO, 97 P / 73 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Owen White: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Nick Starr: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA
RF Aaron Zavala: 2-3, HR, 2 BB
3B Thomas Saggese: 2-3, 2 BB
LF Kellen Strahm: 1-2, 2 BB, SB
1B Trevor Hauver: 1-2, 2 BB
C David Garcia: 1-3, HR, BB

I’m always circumspect about predicting playoff victors because the minor leagues are chaos and I’ve seen the better team fall frequently, so in this case it was nice to see the better team quickly take care of business.

Cody Bradford saved one of his best starts of the year for a critical moment. In 2022, Bradford has three starts of 6-7 innings with zero runs and zero walks. All came against the San Antonio Missions. 

Owen White! He’s back. Out for two months with an “forearm fatigue,” as foreboding a pair of words as you’re likely to see, White needed only seven pitches to complete the 7th. Avery Weems (1.1 IP, 2 R) ran into some 9th-inning trouble, but Nick Starr finished the game successfully just like Tuesday.

Aaron Zavala homered again, this time in the 1st with one on to build an early lead that would never be threatened. Catcher David Garcia homered in the 3rd. Trevor Hauver drew a bases-loaded walk in the 4th and singled in Kellen Strahm in the 8th to complete the scoring.

The Wichita Wind Surge (MIN) swept the Tulsa Drillers (LAD) by scored of 17-11 and 11-1. Hopefully the Surge are done with that nonsense. Wichita had the league’s best second-half record (43-26) and overall record (78-59).

Frisco is off until Sunday. The Riders will host one and only one game of the best-of-three championship. Tickets are five bucks. You should go.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Howard
AA: off

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Tacoma (SEA) 7
Round Rock: 10 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 76-67, eliminated

SP Kolby Allard: 6.2 IP, 5 H (2 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 102 P / 63 S, 4.82 ERA
LF Ezequiel Duran: 5-5, 2B, 2 HR, (8), .285/.318/.545

Tacoma scored five in the 9th. Up 6-2, Jake Latz allowed a solo homer, two singles and a walk. Nick Snyder replaced Latz, and his third pitch, an 82 MPH curve that clipped the bottom of the zone, was hit into Puget Sound.

Ezequiel Duran hit homers of 400 and 420 feet.

The Express themselves say they’re eliminated from the title race. They’re five back of El Paso with seven to play, but they’re also four back of OKC. Since those two teams are playing each other this week, Round Rock can only gain ground on one team on a given night, so the math just doesn’t work. The Express have secured a winning record.

AA: off

Frisco and San Antonio resume the best-of-three tonight at the Wolff. Frisco has the best man for the job on the mound in the form of Cody Bradford. San Antonio is hoping Nolan Watson (5.84 ERA with peripherals to match) can force a third game.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: Bradford

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 3, at Tacoma (SEA) 2 (11)
Round Rock: 5 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 7 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 76-66, 4 GB, elimination number 5

SP Zak Kent: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 91 P / 56 S, 0.39 ERA
RP Lucas Jacobsen: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.00 ERA
RP Chase Lee: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 5.90 ERA
LF Elier Hernandez: 2-4, 2 2B, .291/.351/.517
CF JP Martinez: 1-4, HR (6), .205/.340/.426

For a fourth straight start, Zak Kent calmly dispatched of his opponents. Yet again, he didn’t overpower anyone, but hitters sure aren’t having much luck on contact. Kent’s fastball topped at 93.1, a little lower than usual.

Unfortunately for the Express, El Paso and OKC are meeting this week. Both are ahead of Round Rock (and tied as well), so the Express can’t gain ground on both teams the same day.

Tieran Alexander of Prospects Live has a deep dive into Cole Winn’s troublesome 2022. Worth yur times if you’re into a serious breakdown of his pitches, what’s working, and what isn’t. The short version, which jibes with my assessment: The stuff is still fine, the control and command are sorely lacking.

Ex-Ranger Ronny Henriquez made his MLB debut on the 19th, allowing three runs in four innings. Texas had traded him and IKF to the Twins for Mitch Garver. Per Statcast, Henriquez threw sliders for more than half his pitches. In AAA, Henriquez has a 5.66 ERA with (per usual) good control, plenty of strikeouts, and a lot of homers.

AA: Frisco 7, San Antonio (SDG) 3
Frisco: 12 hits, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 8 walks, 11 strikeouts
Frisco leads best-of-three semifinal 1-0

SP Jack Leiter: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 6 BB, 4 SO, 79 P / 43 S
RP Seth Nordlin: 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO
RP Josh Smith: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO
RP Nick Starr: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO
RF Aaron Zavala: 1-4, HR
2B Luisangel Acuna: 2-4, 2B, SB
LF Kellen Strahm: 2-2, 2 2B, 2 BB
1B Frainyer Chavez: 2-4

Frisco won last night’s playoff opener with typically superior hitting and a surprising 5.2 innings of scoreless relief. The bullpen wasn’t totally blameless, as Seth Nordlin could only strand one of three runners bequeathed by Jack Leiter with one out in the 4th. In his defense, that’s a bear of a situation with an expectation of about 1.6 runs. In any case, he kept the game from getting out of hand, and aided by a clean inning from rehabbing Joe Barlow, the relievers blanked the Missions as Frisco mounted its comeback.

The Riders didn’t mount much of an attack against soft-tossing Thomas Eshelman in the early innings but eliminated a 3-0 deficit in the 5th on doubles by Luisangel Acuna and Kellen Strahm plus singles from Scott Kapers and Evan Carter. Unwilling to settle for a single crooked inning, Frisco plated four in the 8th. Aaron Zavala began by blasting a pitch from Fred Schlichtholz, one of San Antonio’s best relievers. Hits from Thomas Saggese, Strahm, and Jonathan Ornelas provided ample insurance.

Frisco won in front of a surprisingly large and engaged crowd. I mean no offense to the good folks up there, just that playoff ball is often a miss with fans. I’ve attended some AA and AAA playoff games in which the number of actual bodies in attendance was in the low hundreds. The games aren’t scheduled far in advance, school is back, until recently the season ended on Labor Day.  Last night was great to see.

As for Leiter, well, he was bad. He walked the leadoff hitter on five pitches, another on four, and then surrendered a two-out RBI single in a 26-pitch 1st. His last three batters consumed 19 pitches. All walked. The strike zone was on the tight side, but Leiter just didn’t have any control. He’s walked 12 of 42 batters (29%) in his last two starts. I expect he’ll pitch again if Frisco reaches the finals.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: off

Texas League Division Series
Frisco RoughRiders (74-63) vs. San Diego-affiliated San Antonio Missions (68-68)
Season Run Differential: Frisco +80, San Antonio +15
Last 20 Games: Frisco 11-9, San Antonio 6-14
Season Series: Frisco 15-9

How They Got Here
In the season’s first half, Frisco raced to a 9-1 start (including a six-game sweep of the Missions) and led the division for most of the way before fading down the stretch. In the second half, Frisco and Midland were tied with 17 to play, after which the Riders went 10-7 while the RockHounds did the opposite.

The Missions stumbled to a 2-11 record but were 36-20 the rest of the first half to overtake the Riders and claim the first-half division crown. The Missions had the division’s worst second half record (30-39), capped by a 9-18 finish.

History  
Frisco is in the postseason for the first time since 2014. The Riders won their only title in 2004, aided by Ian Kinsler, Jason Botts, Chris Young, and Kam Loe, among others. Six additional visits since then have fallen short. Frisco lost the championship in 2008 to an under-.500 Arkansas squad despite Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz starting four of the five games.

San Antonio’s much longer history includes five league titles during the 2000s but none since 2013. The Mission briefly switched to the AAA Pacific Coast League as a Milwaukee affiliate before returning to AA in 2021 after the Great Purge.

The teams haven’t met in the postseason since 2011. An outstanding San Antonio squad (94-46) won that series 3-1 and the championship. I saw ex-Ranger Joe Wieland duel Robby Ross in the opener.

Top 30 Prospects on Active Roster per MLB.com / Baseball America
Frisco:
2 / 4.  RHP Jack Leiter
3 / 1.  OF Evan Carter
5 / 9.  IF Justin Foscue
7 / 6.  IF Luisangel Acuna
11 / 12. OF Aaron Zavala
14 / 14. LHP Antoine Kelly
17 / nr.  RHP Ricky Vanasco
20 / nr.  IF Thomas Saggese
22 / nr.  IF Jonathan Ornelas
24 / nr.  LHP Avery Weems
29 / 29. RHP Marc Church (on development list)
30 / nr. RHP Mason Englert

San Antonio:
11 / 14. LHP Noel Vela
13 / 23. LHP Jackson Wolf
14 / 18. OF Joshua Mears
18 / 24. OF Tirso Ornelas
23 / 28. RHP Kevin Kopps
24 / 20. RHP Alek Jacob

An embarrassment of riches for Frisco. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen that many ranked prospects on one playoff roster.

Offense / Position Players
Frisco Offense: +4% runs scored, .265/.350/.439, 107 OPS+, 102 wRC+
San Antonio Offense: +4% runs scored, .266/.356/.397, 103 OPS+, 103 wRC+

Frisco:
C Scott Kapers / David Garcia
1B Trevor Hauver
2B Justin Foscue
3B Jonathan Ornelas
SS Luisangel Acuna
LF Kellen Strahm
CF Evan Carter
RF Aaron Zavala
Also IF Thomas Saggese, OF Josh Stowers, IF Frainyer Chavez

Several of Frisco’s best hitters have departed (Duran, Crim, Harris, Martinez), but Frisco’s offense is perhaps in its best shape all season. The Riders bashed their way to a division title by averaging 8.6 runs per game in the final three weeks. For the season, Frisco rated well above average in power but didn’t walk much. The current bunch has improved patience (mainly in the form of Zavala and Hauver) and slightly diminished power.

Catcher is the only weak spot, but Kapers can get a hold of a pitch, too. Other than that position and Luisangel Acuna (.224/.302/.349), who’s quieted since advancing from Hickory, the “worst” hitter statistically is Jonathan Ornelas at .299/.360/.425. That’s mighty impressive. One might have expected newcomers Evan Carter and Thomas Saggese to struggle, but they both had tremendous debut weeks.

Hauver didn’t start playing first until very recently, but I’d be inclined to keep him there under these circumstances. He’s the weakest defender, and Frisco lacks a natural 1B after Crim’s promotion.

San Antonio:
C Webster Rivas
1B Yorman Rodriguez (also C)
2B Domingo Leyba
3B Kelvin Melean
SS Connor Hollis
LF Tirso Ornelas
CF Josh Mears
RF Ripken Reyes
Also C/IF Juan Fernandez, C Tyler Malone, OF Jorge Ona, UT Ethan Skendler

San Antonio hit 23 fewer homers than any other team and was the league’s weakest power source, even after adjusting for its difficult park. The Missions were best in OBP relative to park, however. Singles, walks, steals, and even sacrifices feature in the attack.

27-year-old Connor Hollis is an on-base machine (.432 this season, career .406) and best base-stealing threat. Others above .350 are Ornelas, Reyes, Leyba (26, ex-Ranger, some MLB experience), and Rivas (a grizzled 31 and another MLB vet). None of these guys strike out much, either. The Missions will put the ball in play, so Frisco will rely on its defense and luck more than usual. Above-average power comes from 2019 2nd-rounder Joshua Mears, OF/DH Jorge Ona, and 1B Yorman Rodriguez.

Pitching / Possible Rotation
Frisco: 6% better than avg. in runs allowed, .247/.337/.400 oppo line, 93 OPS+, 12% BB/HBP, 24% SO)
San Antonio: 2% below avg. in runs allowed, .259/.351/.405, 103 OPS+, 13% BB/HBP, 22% SO)

Frisco:
1: Jack Leiter (5.54 ERA, .247/.359/.381 opposing line, 13% BB/HBP rate, 26% SO rate)
2: Cody Bradford (5.01 ERA, .248/.304/.427, 7% BB/HBP, 25% SO)
3: Mason Englert (4.11 ERA, .237/.308/.356, 8% BB/HBP, 31% SO)

For the season, Frisco’s pitching and defense graded out slightly higher than the offense, but the current situation is reversed. How offense-dependent were the Riders? In their 10-7 stretch to clinch the division, they allowed an average of 6.6 runs per game overall and 5.0 when they won.

Jack Leiter’s a great prospect, but he wasn’t a great pitcher in 2022. Odds of him running into a bad inning are high; the key will be stranding those excess baserunners. Bradford pitched much better down the stretch and is the ideal choice for what will be an elimination game for either Frisco or San Antonio. Englert has only three AA starts but acquitted himself nicely and seems up to the task.

The bullpen… ah, the bullpen. Gone are Grant Anderson, Lucas Jacobsen, Chase Lee, and Fern Ozuna (plus Tim Brennan, a potentially crucial absence, Zak Kent, Cole Ragans, and Owen White). Closer Nick Starr has a modest 20% K rate but has pitched comfortably and successfully in the role. Likewise, Nordlin has been competent as a swingman, and since he’s not starting, I’m hopeful he can pitch in Games 1 and 3 (if needed). Avery Weems can be as good as anyone (and might draw an early start if Frisco advances), but he’s worryingly homer-prone. The rest have a combined 5.96 ERA and 15% BB/HBP rate. Everybody has an issue, be it walks, homers, or not many strikeouts.
San Antonio:
1: Thomas Eshelman (4.58 ERA, .306/.329/.442, 3% BB/HBP, 13% SO)
2: Nolan Watson (5.84 ERA,  .276/.378/.416, 11% BB/HBP, 22% SO)
3: Henry Henry (5.20 ERA, .276/.390/.381, 15% BB/HBP, 22% SO)

San Antonio’s rotation after Game 1 is a guess based on schedule, including Watson being held out on Sunday. Frankly, it’s not much to speak of, and alternatives who might be ready for Games 2 and 3 aren’t any better. Watson was 2015’s 33rd-overall pick by the Royals but hasn’t surpassed AA. Henry Henry seems to be able to suppress power when he’s not walking people. Eshelman has acquired 98 MLB innings with superior command of soft stuff.

The bullpen is a mixed bag. Alek Jacob (1.83 ERA, 30% SO) Fred Schlichtholz (2.04 ERA, 28% SO), and Jordan Guerrero (few innings in 2022 but a decent track record) are the best relievers. Closer Lake Bachar has been okay more often than not, but he’s prone to homers.

Defense
Frisco was a little easier to run on but bested the Missions in terms of expected double plays, outs on balls in play, and errors.

Park Factors
Frisco – 1.00
San Antonio – 0.93

The Wolff is tough on power. The Missions and their opponents combined for 79 homers in San Antonio and 153 in other parks.

Advantages / Outlook
Offense – Frisco
Pitching – Even
Defense – Frisco

It doesn’t always work out as such, but on paper we appear to be in for a high-scoring series. Both sides have solid offenses and problems in their rotations and pens. I do think the Riders are the better team, but not by a huge amount, and in a best-of-three, it’s hard to see them as more than a 55/45 favorite. Don’t bet your retirement on either side, even if you’re getting odds.

Most Recent Texas-Affiliated Championship Teams
AAA: 1996 Oklahoma City 89ers
AA: 2004 Frisco RoughRiders
Hi-A: 2017 Down East Wood Ducks (co-champion)
Lo-A: 2015 Hickory Crawdads
Short-A: 2008 Spokane Indians
Rookie: 2019 Rangers
DSL: 2014 Rangers

Welcome to an evening edition of the Farm Report. Today was long. I’ll have a preview of Frisco’s series against San Antonio tomorrow. I hope.

As you’ve probably seen, Texas placed a successful waiver claim on RHP Drew Strotman, whose name anagrams to Tend Worst Arm, but don’t hold it against him. Drafted in 2017’s 4th round out of St. Mary’s, Strotman was added to Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster after 2020 but traded the next July with RHP Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz. He’s on his second option. Strotman offers a mid-90s fastball, cutter, slider, and change, although since he’s moved to relief this season I’m not sure if all of those secondaries remain in play. He fans batters at an acceptable rate but his control is poor. The 26-year-old strikes me as the kind of guy the Rangers will try to run through waivers themselves at the opportune moment and hope that he didn’t get re-claimed.

Texas placed Brad Miller on the 60-day IL to make room. Miller’s season is over, and perhaps his time in Texas even though he’s owed $4 million next year. Miller was a potentially clever partial solution to Texas’s problems in third or left, but his power and walks dwindled as a Ranger.

The Giants designated OF Willie Calhoun for assignment after claiming another ex-Ranger, RHP Jharel Cotton. Calhoun had a single and walk in nine trips to the plate. A claim on him by the Rangers would be, shall we say, unlikely.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 5, at El Paso (SDG) 6 (10)
Round Rock: 8 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 5 walks, 3 strikeouts
Record: 75-66, 5 GB, elimination number 5

SP Tyson Miller: 5 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 70 P / 49 S, 4.52 ERA
RF Josh Sale: 2-3, HR (11), BB, .237/.353/.443
LF Elier Hernandez: 3-5, 3B, HR (12), .288/.347/.510

The Express lost five of six to division-leading El Paso, placing them five back with nine to play. Elier Hernandez missed the cycle by a double.

AA: Frisco 10, at NW Arkansas (KAN) 9 (10)
Frisco: 12 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 7 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 38-30, tied for first, 74-63 overall, division champion, regular season over

SP Tai Tiedemann: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 27 P / 19 S, 6.20 ERA
RP Avery Weems: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 5.14 ERA
RP John Matthews: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 5.40 ERA
RF Evan Carter: 2-5, 2B, HR (1), BB, .429/.536/.714
LF Kellen Strahm: 2-4, BB, .277/.392/.407
3B Thomas Saggese: 2-4, 2B, HR (1), BB, .381/.409/.857

Saggese’s homer was a grand slam. For that and other heroics, he was named Texas League Player of the Week. Not bad for someone who made his AA debut five days ago. Fellow newcomer Evan Carter, who batted .429/.536/.714, gets a pat on the back.

Box Scores


AAA: Round Rock 0, at El Paso (SDG) 13
Round Rock: 7 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 7 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 75-65, 4 GB, elimination number 7

SP Spencer Howard: 3 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 68 P / 41 S, 4.05 ERA
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, .476/.476/.526

El Paso led 11-0 after the 4th. The Chihuahuas scored five in an inning off Fernery Ozuna, who has an engaging repertoire (exceptional run on a mid-90s fastball and upper-80s change, an occasional slurve) but has struggled with his control in AAA. He’s issued at least two walks on five occasions in 2022, four of them during his limited time with the Express.

Rehabbing Joe Barlow fanned two in a perfect 5th.

OF Eli White is out for the year with a knee issue, per local media. I was at his first rehab game, in which he was pulled early, and he departed early again on Tuesday. In terms of replacing the injured Nick Solak, Texas’s minor league hitters on the 40 are Ezequiel Duran, Andy Ibanez, and catcher Meibrys Viloria. Viloria would give Texas a third catcher. Ibanez hasn’t been anything special, but I could see him getting the nod over Duran because Zeke needs regular at-bats that won’t be forthcoming in Arlington. Nobody off the 40 especially jumps out to me, at least not without reservations. Yohel Pozo is hitting well per usual, but he’d be limited to DH.

Round Rock has lost eight of 12 since pulling to one game behind Oklahoma City.


AA: Frisco 5, at NW Arkansas (KAN) 7
Frisco: 9 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 7 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 37-30, 2 G up, 73-63 overall, division champion

SP Ricky Vanasco: 4.2 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 91 P / 55 S, 6.75 ERA
RP Antoine Kelly: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 7.23 ERA
CF Evan Carter: 1-3, 2 BB, .438/.545/.563
1B Frainyer Chavez: 3-4, SB (1), .300/.357/.360

Ricky Vanasco’s regular season concludes with a 4.68 ERA, an opposing line of .252/.350/.428, a 13% BB/HBP rate and a 29% strikeout rate. Vanasco was as certain a 40-man addition as anyone last winter, getting a spot that wasn’t afforded to either Bubba Thompson or Cole Ragans. His 2022 was erratic, not unexpectedly, but also marked by wildly varying reports on his velocity and reviews that didn’t jibe with the offseason hype. Perhaps expectations were too high given his two-year absence (covid, TJ). Vanasco would be an interesting 40 decision if he weren’t already on the roster.

The regular season ends today. Frisco will finish with the second-best record in the league and best in the division.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Miller
AA: TBD

—

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Rangers Farm Report: Games of Saturday 17 September
Box Scores


AAA: Round Rock 0, at El Paso (SDG) 13
Round Rock: 7 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 7 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 75-65, 4 GB, elimination number 7

SP Spencer Howard: 3 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 68 P / 41 S, 4.05 ERA
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, .476/.476/.526

El Paso led 11-0 after the 4th. The Chihuahuas scored five in an inning off Fernery Ozuna, who has an engaging repertoire (exceptional run on a mid-90s fastball and upper-80s change, an occasional slurve) but has struggled with his control in AAA. He’s issued at least two walks on five occasions in 2022, four of them during his limited time with the Express.

Rehabbing Joe Barlow fanned two in a perfect 5th.

OF Eli White is out for the year with a knee issue, per local media. I was at his first rehab game, in which he was pulled early, and he departed early again on Tuesday. In terms of replacing the injured Nick Solak, Texas’s minor league hitters on the 40 are Ezequiel Duran, Andy Ibanez, and catcher Meibrys Viloria. Viloria would give Texas a third catcher. Ibanez hasn’t been anything special, but I could see him getting the nod over Duran because Zeke needs regular at-bats that won’t be forthcoming in Arlington. Nobody off the 40 especially jumps out to me, at least not without reservations. Yohel Pozo is hitting well per usual, but he’d be limited to DH.

Round Rock has lost eight of 12 since pulling to one game behind Oklahoma City.


AA: Frisco 5, at NW Arkansas (KAN) 7
Frisco: 9 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 7 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 37-30, 2 G up, 73-63 overall, division champion

SP Ricky Vanasco: 4.2 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 91 P / 55 S, 6.75 ERA
RP Antoine Kelly: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 7.23 ERA
CF Evan Carter: 1-3, 2 BB, .438/.545/.563
1B Frainyer Chavez: 3-4, SB (1), .300/.357/.360

Ricky Vanasco’s regular season concludes with a 4.68 ERA, an opposing line of .252/.350/.428, a 13% BB/HBP rate and a 29% strikeout rate. Vanasco was as certain a 40-man addition as anyone last winter, getting a spot that wasn’t afforded to either Bubba Thompson or Cole Ragans. His 2022 was erratic, not unexpectedly, but also marked by wildly varying reports on his velocity and reviews that didn’t jibe with the offseason hype. Perhaps expectations were too high given his two-year absence (covid, TJ). Vanasco would be an interesting 40 decision if he weren’t already on the roster.

The regular season ends today. Frisco will finish with the second-best record in the league and best in the division.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Miller
AA: TBD