AAA: Round Rock 1, Sugar Land (HOU) 0
Round Rock: 5 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 5-3, 2 GB, 42-40 overall
SP Tyler Mahle: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 19 P / 12 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Owen White: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 4.46 ERA
RP Grant Wolfram: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 3.66 ERA
1B Justin Foscue: 1-2, BB, HBP, .233/.441/.395
DH Blaine Crim: 2-3, 2B, .224/.330/.364
In his 2024 debut, Tyler Mahle mowed down Sugar Land on an almost too-efficient 19 pitches across two innings. Pitch velocities appeared to be at or very close to norms, although pitch classification issues make the comparison difficult. Regardless, it’s a successful return, pending reports on health.
Owen White followed with one of his best “starts” of the season. He missed 11 bats, not a huge number for 99 pitches, but he induced a high number of grounders and soft contact. I wouldn’t say he’s more than an emergency call-up right now, but he has perhaps a dozen more chances in 2024 to build a case for a larger role.
Blaine Crim continues to perplex. Last year, he batted .370 and slugged .646 on contact. In 2024, those respective figures have diminished to .285 and .452, a shocking year-over-year change. A cursory review of the batted ball data offers little explanation. His rate of balls in play at 95 MPH or higher has dropped from 42% to 40%, not nothing but not enough to explain a nearly .200-point slugging decline. He’s not suddenly hitting everything on the ground or popping up constantly. Is it simply horrendous bad luck? I think luck plays a part but also a subtle but important shift in his velocity range. His top-end velocity remains very strong, but his median has dipped from 93 to 90. He’s hitting more balls in a slightly lower range where a difference of 2-3 MPH is critical. A ball that might sneak over the fence stays in, former doubles get caught, more grounders get snagged. I’m not certain of my analysis, but that’s what I see. In any case, I’d hold to my position that luck has despised him all season, and simply staying the course should produce better results.
Johnny Cueto opted out of his contract.
AA: Frisco 1, @ Arkansas (SEA) 4
Frisco: 5 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 5-3, 1 GB, 49-28 overall
SP Ryan Garcia: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 96 P / 61 S, 3.97 ERA
RF Aaron Zavala: 2-4, .211/.326/.302
Ryan Garcia produced his best outing of the season.
Friend-of-the-Report Grant Schiller of Baseball Prospectus offered his eyewitness takes on Dane Acker and Aaron Zavala on Monday (subscription link). On Acker, Schiller saw swing/back-of-rotation potential if better control could be procured, while the Zavala assessment was understandably gloomier. Earlier in the year, I suggested Zavala was roughly halfway between his earlier success and 2023’s post-injury struggles. In mid-May, he was batting .266/.386/.381. Since then, however, he’s only .148/.259/.217 including a .243 average and .346 slugging percentage on contact.
Hi-A: Hickory 8, Winston-Salem (CHW) 2
Hickory: 8 hits, 6 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 6-5, 0.5 GB, 34-43 overall
SP Kohl Drake: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 9 SO, 83 P / 58 S, 0.82 ERA
RF Anthony Gutierrez: 1-3, BB, .242/.293/.320
C Ian Moller: 2-3, 3B, BB, .222/.342/.293
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-4, HR (2), .182/.182/.394
LF Yosy Galan: 1-4, HR (7), .170/.280/.346
In his second high-A start, Kohl Drake manhandled the Dash for six innings, offering a fastball, curve slider, and change, all of which had their moments. The fastball speeds I heard were 91-92, though I’ve seen multiple reports of higher.
Gleider Figuereo leads the organization with 14 homers.
Lo-A: Down East 9, Carolina (MIL) 3
Down East: 11 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 5-6, 3 GB, 40-36 overall
SP David Davallilo: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 77 P / 45 S, 1.37 ERA
SS Echedry Vargas: 3-5, 2B, HR (8), .271/.332/.447
DH Jojo Blackmon: 2-4, 2 SB (6), .196/.273/.320
3B Esteban Mejia: 3-3, 3B, BB, .171/.310/.343
Davalillo has allowed zero runs in seven of 13 outings. Earlier this season, his strikeout rate was fairly mundane, but in his most recent six starts he’s fanned 31% of his opponents along with a 9% BB/HBP rate and 0.58 ERA.
Since missing most of the series at Fredericksburg (including, sadly, the game I saw in person), Echedry Vargas is hitting .394/.444/.788 with four homers in eight games.
Today’s Starters
AAA: Garabito
AA: B. Anderson
Hi-A: Bratt
Lo-A: TBA
Five Years Ago Yesterday
Matt Bush suffered a torn elbow ligament and would undergo Tommy John surgery. He’d returned to action in Frisco only three weeks earlier after missing 12 months for a UCL tear that didn’t require Tommy John. A disheartening event, to be sure, but as we’d find out, July 2019 was close to the ideal time to suffer that sort of injury.
Addendum
Nathaniel Lowe is the worst player in the history of organized sport, and I hate him and everything he stands for.*
* Explanation here. I promise I won’t actually do this every day.