Category: Daily Report

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Las Vegas (ATH) 5 (12)
Round Rock: 10 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 11-7, 1.5 GB, 45-48 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 72 P / 49 S, 5.11 ERA
RP Jose Ruiz: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 12.60 ERA
RP Peyton Gray: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 2.08 ERA
DH Michael Helman: 3-6, 3B, SB (7), .270/.327/.496
3B Josh Jung: 1-6, .205/.225/.410

Drake survived Las Vegas. Of 13 balls in play, our four were hit hard (95+ exit velocity) and all resulted in outs. All the mid-level contact found holes, plus three reached on infield singles. He missed 11 bats, four on the changeup (although Statcast is still having trouble classifying his pitches).

Josh Jung reached on a hard grounder. He struck out once, and none of the other contact was noteworthy. For the weekend, he was 3-for-16 with two homers and three strikeouts.

AA: Frisco 6, Corpus Christi (HOU) 11
Frisco: 8 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 6 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 8-13, 4 GB, 46-43 overall

SP Ben Anderson: 3 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 62 P / 29 S, 4.48 ERA
RP Bryan Magdaleno: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 7.17 ERA
RP Leandro Lopez: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
LF Aaron Zavala: 1-3, HR (8), 2 BB, .245/.380/.387
SS Sebastian Walcott: 2-4, 3B, SB (23), .248/.344/.400

Gadzooks. (Sorry about the language.) Frisco led 5-3 entering the top of the 9th, but Gavin Collyer and Travis Macgregor combined to allow eight runs on five hits, three walks and a Sebastian Walcott error. Walcott did have his best weekend at the plate in some time (6-for-13, triple, homer).

Up from Hub City is 23-year-old righty Leandro Lopez, who held opponents to a .200/.281/.294 line and 2.16 earned runs per nine in 65 innings. He’s down the list some among possible 40 additions this fall but is at least in the discussion.

Hi-A: Hub City 3, Brooklyn (NYM) 13
Hub City: 7 hits, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 13 hits, 8 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 15-9, 2 G up, 46-43 overall

SP Jose Gonzalez: 4 IP, 7 H (1 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 65 P / 40 S, 3.19 ERA
RP Adrian Rodriguez: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA
C Malcolm Moore: 1-4, HR (2), .188/.311/.294

2024 first-rounder Malcolm Moore connected on his first homer and first extra-base hit since coming off the IL. Is the finger still an issue. I don’t know, but he’s hitting .145/.210/.200 since breaking it.

Facing one of the league’s best offenses, Gonzalez tied season-highs in hits, earned runs and walks.

Lo-A: Hickory 7, Charleston (TAM) 5
Hickory: 10 hits, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 17-7, 0.5 GB, 50-39 overall

SP Ismael Agreda: 4 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 64 P / 36 S, 2.64 ERA
RP Michael Trausch: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.79 ERA
DH Hector Osorio: 1-3, BB, .257/.397/.372
3B Esteban Mejia: 3-3, 3B, .262/.371/.369

Ismael Agreda sneaked away with four strikeouts despite only three missed bats. I like Agreda but was pretty skeptical of his stability in a starting role, even on a limited workload, but he’s maintained just-good-enough control (13.6% BB/HBP) while predictably limiting contact (.176/.287/.255).

Draft
In their updated rankings, Baseball America has placed top pick Gavin Fien fourth in the organization, 2nd-rounder AJ Russell seventh, and two-way player Josh Owens 18th. Also per BA, Texas has signed 18th-rounder RHP Julius Sanchez of Illinois.

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The best team in the short-season Northwest League (where the Rangers played from 2003 through 2019, after which the classification was eliminated) was the 2007 Salem-Keizer Volcanoes, an affiliate of the Giants.

Actual record: 57-19
Run-differential record: 55-21
Component record: 50-26

This team had the second-best offense and pitching of the 104 teams in my database. In a slightly hitter-friendly park, they outscored the league average by 1.43 runs per game and allowed 1.30 fewer. How dominant were they (or, how precisely mediocre was every other team)? Salem-Keizer had the only winning record in the entire eight-team league. The others finished in a range of 33-43 to 37-39. They were 30-7 in games decided by five runs. They scored at least six runs in just over half their games and were 38-2.  S-K lost the first games of the finals to 37-39 Tri-City but won the next three, twice by shutout.

A good number of Volcanoes reached the Majors but none is a household name. Best was righty Dan Otero drafted in that year’s 21st round and eventually a quality reliever for the A’s and Cleveland for a few years.

Salem-Keizer was the oldest team in the league, but I’m not holding it against them as I did the ’23 Arizona Rockies. Back in 2007, the draft was 50 rounds, the Giants picked plenty of college guys, and one of the primary uses of the Northwest League was to sort out which of them were worthy of full-season ball.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 7, at Las Vegas (ATH) 3
Round Rock: 11 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts
Record: 10-7, 2.5 GB, 44-48 overall

SP Jon Gray: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 61 P / 37 S, 3.18 ERA
RP Robby Ahlstrom: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.23 ERA
3B Josh Jung: 1-5, HR (2), .212/.235/.455

Jon Gray reached 60 pitches and the 4th inning in what is apparently his final rehab start. The Rangers have not publicly committed to his role as a Ranger. Circumstances might decide for them, as Nathan Eovaldi has been scratched with back stiffness.

Josh Jung clubbed a no-doubt homer to left and had three other examples of solid contact that might have become hits with a few feet in a different direction.

AA: Frisco 3, Corpus Christi (HOU) 0
Frisco: 7 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 8-12, 4 GB, 46-42 overall

SP Jose Corniell: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 23 P / 15 S, 0.00 ERA
RP David Davalillo: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1.50 ERA
RP Avery Weems: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 8.68 ERA
SS Sebastian Walcott: 3-4, HR (10), 2 SB (22), .244/.341/.392
DH Abi Ortiz: 2-4, 2B, .232/.340/.413

In his full-season return from Tommy John surgery, Jose Corniell pitched two strong innings. His fastball touched 97, mixed with a cutter, slider and change. He fanned one on three consecutive sliders and might have had one more if not for a nitpicky plate ump. This was also Corniell’s AA debut. He was added to the 40 after the 2023 season and is on his second option. David Davalillo followed with yet another solid outing.

Sebastian Walcott lasered a flat fastball to left for his second homer in three games following a 32-game dry spell.

Texas promoted RHP Leandro Lopez from Hub City to Frisco.

Hi-A: Hub City 2, Brooklyn (NYM) 1 (10)
Hub City: 5 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 2 walks, 16 strikeouts
Record: 15-8, 3 G up, 46-42 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 38 P / 23 S, 5.49 ERA
RP DJ McCarty: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 5.52 ERA
RP Joey Danielson: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.00 ERA
RP Josh Trentadue: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.24 ERA
Erik Loomis: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 1.74 ERA
SS Josh Taylor: 2-3, HR (2), .308/.357/.481
LF Quincy Scott: 2-3, 2 SB (12), .234/.320/.333

Your hero is John Taylor, who tied the game with a sharp solo homer in the 8th and singled in pinch-runner Anthony Gutierrez in the 10th. Taylor is 24, old for the level, but a month ago he was playing for Southern Maryland in the indy Atlantic League.

The Danielson/Trentadue/Loomis trio struck out eight of ten batters.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, Charleston (TAM) 6 (10)
Hickory: 7 hits, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 16-7, 0.5 GB, 49-39 overall

SP David Hagaman: 3 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 48 P / 31 S, 4.63 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-4, BB, .269/.407/.332
SS Luis Marquez: 1-4, HR (1), .246/.338/.385

Errors and wildness foiled the Crawdads, as Charleston scored twice in the 2nd and 5th with just one hit, four walks, a wild pitch, three errors and a fielder’s choice that didn’t record an out. Charleston scored twice in the 10th off a walk-prone William Privette, and the offense couldn’t respond in the bottom half.

Draft
Per Carlos Collazo of Baseball America, Texas has signed 4th-round RHP Mason McConnaughey for $495,825, under the slot of $661,100, and 5th-round LHP Ben Abeldt for $450,000, under the slot fo $489,200.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Drake
AA: Anderson
Hi-A: Gonzalez
Lo-A: Agreda

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The best Arizona rookie-level team during 2007-2024 is the 2023 Colorado Rockies. They were 40-15 and outscored their opponents by 198 runs in just 55 games.

Except I’m ignoring them. Colorado habitually fields older teams, but this group was ridiculous even for them. The average hitter was 22.1 years old, 2.4 older than average and 1.4 older than any other team. Four of the top six in plate appearances were in the 22-25 range, and all were out of the organization by March 2025. The youngest of those six is still around but scuffling in low-A, and the other youngster is still in Arizona. A similarly grizzled squad from 2021 has the fourth-best record.

No. The best team without its thumb and a dozen bat donuts on the scale is the 2019 Giants (Orange).

Actual record: 43-13 (.768)
Run-differential record: 40-16 (.716)
Component record: 38-18 (.681)

They were the best despite the organization splitting the youngsters into two teams. Giants Black were 24-32, not good but still better than six other teams. Of course, a Brewers entry was last at 16-30. (I covered the worst rookie team yesterday.) The Orange bunch didn’t have the league’s best offense — that would be the Rangers — but were in a tight mix near the top. The pitching and defense were stellar, permitting 1.58 runs per game below the league average and 0.97 better than any other team.  They earned a bye but lost a one-and-done playoff to the Rangers, who would then defeat a Cleveland squad in the finals.

Unfortunately, while several players have reached MLB, none appears to have settled into a stable career. SS Marco Luciano batted .322/.438/.616 as a 17-year-old and has ranked among baseball’s top-100 prospects ever since, but he’s spent most of the last two seasons in AAA Sacramento and recently shifted to left field.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Las Vegas (ATH) 5
Round Rock: 9 hits, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 9-7, 2.5 GB, 43-48 overall

SP Michael Plassmeyer: 5 IP, 2 H (2 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 65 P / 40 S, 4.38 ERA
CF Michael Helman: 2-4, HR (6), BB, .254/.317/.476
3B Josh Jung: 1-5, HR (1), .214/.241/.393
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, 2 HR (17), .302/.388/.550

Josh Jung was eligible for recall yesterday, but the gap between option and arrival in Round Rock, multiple rainouts and the All-Star break had limited him to just four games before last night. The statcast data is better than his line, but one item I notice is a 53% swing rate on out-of-zone pitches, about double the league average. Eligible or not, the idea of bringing him back hadn’t occurred to me.

Instead, Texas purchased the contract of 24-year-old Cody Freeman. Drafted in 2019’s fourth round, Freeman was headed for minor league free agency unless the Rangers placed him on the 40 or talked him into staying. Freeman spent much of 2021-2023 behind the plate, and when the Rangers ended that lengthy experiment my first thought was “uh oh,” because his bat wasn’t looking capable of carrying a corner position. But in 2024, he upgraded his contact while finding another level of power. That continued this season at Round Rock, where he’s hitting .315/.367/.494 with 20 doubles and 12 homers. He’s played most of his time at third but has slid over to second more frequently of late, and for the first time since 2019, he’s spending time at short. It isn’t his ideal spot, but he can manage. He has never played outfield professionally.

Freeman is selective at the plate, but that judiciousness tends to result in balls in play rather than walks. His minuscule swinging strike rate of 5% is fourth among the 150 busiest PCL hitters. He he just exceptionally difficult to strike out, and that applies to all pitch types. For example, by my count, he’s swung at 87 sliders in Round Rock and missed only ten while putting 43 in play. That is just an outrageous ratio; the average AAA hitter has an equal number of balls in play and whiffs on sliders.

Freeman’s contact is solid, if not special. He hits plenty of medium-hard balls but tapers off at the high end. Some of those 12 homers aren’t leaving MLB parks. That and lower-than-average launch angles make his ultimate power more doubles-oriented, but he may yet have a little more oomph to provide. As to what that could mean in the Majors, I’m almost scared to guess at this point. Both Justin Foscue and Blaine Crim have terrific contact profiles as well, and they’ve combined for three hits in 63 plate appearances. But in general, he’s a potential utility player, dependent on where that contact lands and how much positional flexibility his manager is willing to contemplate.

Blaine Crim homered twice, as one does in Sin City (well, Summerlin).

AA: Frisco 3, Corpus Christi (HOU) 7 (10)
Frisco: 7 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 7-12, 4 GB, 45-42 overall

SP Josh Stephan: 2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 45 P / 29 S, 5.53 ERA
RP Josh Sborz: 1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 9.00 ERA
RP Mitch Bratt: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.70 ERA
1B Abi Ortiz: 2-4, HR (13), BB, .228/.338/.408

Don’t worry about the lines from Josh Stephan and Mitch Bratt. They and others throughout the system received what I would deem brief post-break outings to stay fresh while managing workload. Corpus Christi scored more runs in the 10th (four) than they average per game (3.7).    

Frisco activated Bryan Magdaleno, who’d spent three weeks on the development list. He’s had great difficulty building on last year’s breakout, walking or hitting 27 in just 20.2 innings.

Hi-A: Hub City 5, Brooklyn (NYM) 4
Hub City: 5 hits, 4 walks, 15 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 14-8, 3 G up, 45-42 overall

SP Dalton Pence: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 45 P / 27 S, 1.29 ERA
RP Mason Molina: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.86 ERA
RP Wilian Bormie: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 2.58 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-4, 3B, .218/.313/.364
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-3, HR (16), BB, .217/.289/.399
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, 2B, .237/.305/.369

Hub City scored three in the bottom of the 9th, punctuated by Arturo Disla’s walk-off gapped double. 3B Rafe Perich’s arrival late last month hasn’t cut into Gleider Figuereo’s time much. Figuereo actually has more plate appearances (56 to 41) while they’ve been teammates, and Perich has four of his last six games at first. The promotion to Hub City hasn’t presented any trouble to Dalton Pence.

Lo-A: Hickory 1, Charleston (TAM) 7
Hickory: 5 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 16-6, 0.5 G up, 49-38 overall

SP Garrett Horn: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 65 P / 41 S, 2.51 ERA
RP Caden Scarborough: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.44 ERA

Given one inning to shine, Caden Scarborough fanned his side in order on 12 pitches, including highly regarded Theo Gillen, who mostly just stood and stared. Scarborough connected for strikes on 11 of 12 pitches (three swinging), and the one miss wasn’t by much, if any.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Abbott
AA: Davalillo
Hi-A: Curtis
Lo-A: Hagaman

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The worst rookie-level team out west during 2007-2024 was the 2008 Brewers.

Actual record: 13-42 (.236)
Run-differential record: 14-41 (.248)
Component record: 16-39 (.293)

This was not a fluke. Three of the five worst teams during this period were theirs, and 14 of the worst 82 (roughly the bottom third of all teams). This squad joined the league in 2001 and has five winning teams of 26 fielded, and 11 squads finished .400 or worse. For the most part, the Brewers have been run well during this period. They just don’t appear to have any interest in the competitiveness of these squads when putting them together. This particular bunch had the youngest hitters and pitching staff in the league.

This team was not unlucky. They were 2-24 in games decided by 5+ runs. The offense was the worst of the era, hitting .213/.297/.308 (68 OPS+) and scoring 3.6 runs per game, 35% under the league average. The pitching was poor, too, if not historically so, “only” 20% worse than average in runs allowed. Defensively, they committed 64 more errors than the average of the other teams (more than one per game) and allowed 61 more steals than average.

The only player to reach the Majors off this squad was Jake Odorizzi.

The worst short-season team from the Northwest League (Texas’s home from 2003 through 2019, after which the classification was eliminated) was the 2013 Eugene Emeralds.

Actual record: 27-49 (.355)
Run-differential record: 24-52 (.320)
Component record: 24-52 (.322)

As worsts go, a .355 winning percentage isn’t that terrible. This Padres affiliate did have the extra indignity of underplaying their record. San Diego also had an extra short squad in the Pioneer League (unlike the Rangers and the majority of teams), so their lower system was stretched thinner. Run scoring and allowance were both about 20% worse than the league average. They allowed the most homers despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly park. For discussion purposes, they weren’t “fun bad” like the Brewers, just bad, which is why I combined the teams into one entry. Several Emerald regulars would go on to lengthy MLB career including Hunter Renfroe, Adam Cimber and Franmil Reyes.

Rowdy Tellez
Per local reports, Texas is expected to add 1B Rowdy Tellez to the roster in place of just-IL’ed Jake Burger. Because of frequent rain and the break, Tellez played only four games for Round Rock, not that a longer stretch would matter. He is who he is; his homers add value, and every other activity subtracts. With the Express, Tellez homered twice but also missed on a terrifying 52% of his swings, but again, that’s just a handful plate appearances.

Texas also has already recalled Justin Foscue, who’ll presumably cover the thinner side of the platoon, and optioned OF Michael Helman. The Rangers won’t need to clear a 40 spot for Tellez.

Dane Dunning
Texas traded RHP Dane Dunning to Atlanta for RHP Jose Ruiz and cash. Ruiz had been designated for assignment and outrighted four weeks ago, not long after being nabbed off waivers from Philadelphia. Like Dunning, Ruiz was drawing an arbitration salary, slightly under half of Dunning’s $2.66 million. The net monetary difference in a straight deal is about $550,000 down the stretch, and that plus the cash will give Texas a little extra wiggle room to avoid the Competitive Balance Tax while negotiating additional transactions.

Ruiz has pitched well at times but not during 2025. This is a money deal, and any on-field value he provides is a happy coincidence.

As for Atlanta’s motivation, the Braves are 11 games under .500, have a decimated staff are just need innings from somewhere. I suppose they’ve also bought an opportunity to get Dunning back to his earlier form and could then offer arbitration for 2026. Doubtful, but not inconceivable. To make room for Dunning, Atlanta designated RHP Jesse Chavez for a assignment for the third time this season.

Dunning’s time in Texas ended poorly, but for a few years he was a dependable inning-eater, never more so than 2023 when he led the team in innings while posting a 3.70 ERA.

Achieved: Average Offense
You might hate me for this, but that’s okay because I already hate myself.

Occasionally, I’ve calculated how the Rangers might have been expected to perform given an average offense. Recently, the offense has improved, but the team’s record has still hovered just under .500 because of a tendency of blowout wins and close losses. On the pre-break ten-game road trip, the Rangers won five games by 30 runs and lost five by nine runs. The Rangers now trail their expected record by run differential ( +47)  by six wins. That’s huge. Imagine the Rangers at 54-43! (But, as I’ve said before, the 2025 Rangers certainly do not feel like an above-average club afflicted with bad luck. The current record feels descriptive and deserved. )

Since June 20, when they hit the road after being swept at home by KC, the Rangers have scored 5.6 runs per game, fourth-most in all of baseball. The underlying production isn’t nearly that strong, as they’re only 15th in OPS, but they are scoring.

Even with that improvement, the Rangers rank 12th in the league with 4.05 runs per game vs. a league average of 4.33. However, Texas’s home park has been extremely pitcher-friendly in 2025; I calculate a one-year park factor of 0.91. There’s no hard rule for how much to regress or weigh other seasons, but I have a current park factor of about 0.95. Multiplying that by 4.33 results in a park-adjusted league average of 4.11 runs per game, which in turn results in 399 total runs, only six more than what they’ve actually scored.

So, congratulations to the Rangers on their (almost) league-average offense! Hey. Please don’t look at me like that. It’s just math.

Actually, no, even I wouldn’t argue that the offense is nearly average. The underlying metrics are lagging, the number of low-scoring games immense, the frustration palpable. Still, what the Rangers have lately isn’t a problem of scoring but distribution. 6-5 losses, 13-1 wins. Yes, we can say “they’re inconsistent,” but that’s not a type of inconsistency that lends itself to a cure. They just have to try to score as much as possible all the time and hope it evens out.

Prospects
I have a top-30 prospect checkup mostly written, but I’ll save it for Tuesday morning.

What’s Left For Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
Top 7 full-season teams
Top 10 position player seasons
Top 10 starting pitcher seasons
Top 5 relief pitcher seasons
Top 3 of 5 team hitting seasons (the other two will be incorporated into top-team writeups)
Top 3 of 5 team pitching seasons (same)
Bottom 4 full-season teams
Top 2 rookie and short-season teams
Worst rookie and short-season team
Best and worst rookie and full-season teams (among all teams in a Texas-affiliated league)

Draft Recap, Rounds 4-20
Compared to last year, Texas had a much more balanced draft by age, drafting nine players from four-year schools versus 2024’s 15. The Rangers didn’t take a college hitter until the seventh round and only two overall. Conversely, they selected six high school hitters and four JuCo pitchers.

4/115. RHP Mason McConnaughey (Age 21.2, 6’3″, 220)
#386 by Baseball America
After a fine sophomore year, McConnaughey was Nebraska’s Friday starter until suffering an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, so check back in about a year. Per MLB.com’s Jim Callis on the live feed, McConnaughey was expected to go in the top five rounds if healthy, so, not for the first time, the Rangers baked in the expectation of a good season that never came to pass. He offers a low 90s fastball, low-80s slider, change. Despite a rough first start against UC-Irvine and a truncated finale, he struck out nearly a third of opponents in 2025.

5/146. LHP Ben Abeldt (Age 21.6, 6’3″, 210)
#291 by BA, #205 by BA, #256 by Perfect Game
Another TJ victim, in this case scratching his entire 2025 season. Abeldt worked in relief in his two seasons in purple, relying mainly on a low-slot heater than didn’t miss quite as many bats as Russell or McConnaughey but was tough to loft. He tacks on a low-80s slide and occasional change. McKinney native.

6/175. SS Jack Wheeler (Age 19.0, 6’5″, 205)
MLB says 3B, the Rangers say SS. He’s quite lean, appearing lighter than the listed 205, so I imagine he’ll fill out some more (or maybe he’s the next Jairo Beras or Will Lamb, perpetually bony.) He’s shown some contact skills and power at the plate. Wheeler also pitches. Callis mentioned a fastball reaching 94. Some video I found showed a 90-91 heater, a raw upper-70s curve and change around 80.

7/205. OF Paxton Kling (Age 22.1, 6’2″, 210)
#264 by BA, #162 by MLB.com, #141 by PG
Kling withheld from the draft out of high school to attend LSU and transferred to Penn State after a disappointing soph season. There, he lowered the strikeouts and displayed grownup power (.358/.470/.632) while manning center and stealing 15 bases. Nothing is promised from seventh-rounders, but he reads as no worse than quality upper-level depth worthy of mention in the daily reports, perhaps more if the bat holds up against better pitching.

8/235. RHP Evan Siary (Age 21.7, 6’1″, 190)
Siary spent three years at Mississippi State, graduating to a (mostly) starting role and posting a strong 4.00 ERA with 15 walks and 72 strikeouts in 54 innings. I couldn’t find much in print about Siary, but video reveals an 89-91 fastball that touches 93 and is tough to pick up, an 83ish slider, a diving mid-80s change, and a 71-78 curve that he can move around and bend into a semi-sweeper. I expect he’ll start initially, but that repertoire had me thinking about a change-of-pace long reliever.

9/265. LHP Owen Proksch (Age 21.5, 6’3″, 225)
#401 by BA, #456 by PG
Wisconsin-born but Southlake-raised, “O Pro” switched from relief to dependable starter as a junior for Duke, striking out 91 in 65.1 innings. His superficially tolerable walk rate (a hair under 10%) was badly undercut by 18 hit batters, nearly one per outing. 90ish fastball, 80ish, sweeper, change.

10/295. RHP J.D. McReynolds (Age 22.3, 6’4″, 220)
McReynolds is a senior reliever out of D2 Central Missouri, and the signing bonus should reflect that. His final season was a beauty with 95 Ks in 57 innings (42%) and just 19 walks plus a 1.41 ERA.

11/325. RHP Jacob Johnson (Age 19.1, 6’3″, 165)
#475 by BA, #381 by PG
He started for Pearl River Community College in the bootheel of Mississippi after missing his senior season due to TJ. Committed to Auburn, with a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider and change.

12/355. RHP Jake Barbee (Age 18.8, 6’3″, 180)
Barbee played in Concord, NC, a Charlotte exurb an hour and change from Hickory, and he’s committed to USC-Upstate in Hub City’s home of Spartanburg. Good frame, has reached the mid-90s.

13/385. RHP Aiden Robertson (Age 20.2, 6’2″, 185)
#284 by BA
Pitched at Walters State in Tennessee, where the Rangers have a history (Brett Martin, Chad Bell, Kohl Drake), and committed to Virginia Tech. Per Baseball America, his 130 strikeouts (in 89.2 IP) were the most in top-level JuCo ball. His velocity and mechanics are inconsistent, but he can reach the mid-90s with his sinker.

14/415. RHP Landon Manzi (Age 17.6, 6’3″, 190)
Manzi is absurdly young, not turning 18 until November. He has the opportunity to pitch for Northeastern U and was noncommittal when asked of his destination.

15/445. SS Luke Hanson (Age 21.8, 6’3”, 200)
Part of Texas’s draft strategy is to describe every infielder as a shortstop and will it into existence. Like Wheeler, Hanson is listed at short despite more experience elsewhere, primarily third. At Virginia, he batted .286/.387/.490 as a sophomore but backslid to .248/.373/.333 as a junior.

16/475. RHP Jaxon Grossman (Age 21.3, 6’4”, 220)
The Rangers have their first Jaxon, but certainly not their last. Its nascent popularity at the time of Mr. Grossman’s birth peaked about a decade later and remains strong. He entered the Salt Lake Community College rotation as the season progressed, and MLB.com notes a fastball reaching 97.

17/505. C Noah Franklin (Age 18.8, 6’1”, 215)
#313 by PG
Franklin comes from TXNL Academy in Florida, where the Rangers also have a history (Ryan Dease, Kyle Larsen) that has yet to produce a Major Leaguer. MLB.com says he’s bat-first but could stick behind the plate, and he’ll head to South Carolina if unsigned.

18/535. RHP Julius Sanchez (Age 21.8, 6’0”, 215)
Another pitcher who’ll come to Texas bandaged (assuming he signs). Sanchez disappeared after an early-March start. I’ve seen older reports in a low-to-mid90s fastball, 80 slider and mid-to-upper-80s change.

19/565. RHP Cory Geinzer (Age 19.0, 6’4”, 210)
Pitched for College of Central Florida last season. His fastball has improved to the low 90s augmented with a cutter, slider and change. I’m unaware of any commitment to a university next season.

20/595. OF Jamaurion “Jay” McQueen (Age 18.8, 6’2”, 185)
#269 by BA
My favorite player in the draft because, like me, he throws left and bats right. A future star worth any amount of draft tax. Okay, but seriously, BA says he owns some patience, contact ability and power potential. He’s committed to South Alabama and might need some persuasion to forego it, given a writeup suggesting a top-ten-round destination.

Free Agents
Per baseball America, Texas has signed undrafted free agents Jack Collins, a catcher from Cal Poly, and LHP Louis Marinaro from St. John’s.

Complex
Baseball America’s rankings of Arizona League prospects placed infielders Yolfran Castillo and Devin Fitz-Gerald (now in Hickory) 13th and 17th, respectively. For the most part, these single-league rankings reiterate BA’s prior opinions, which is why Castillo (deservedly) holds a good spot despite an ordinary season, although Fitz-Gerald did receive a bump with his fine showing.

In his fourth post-TJ appearance, Jose Corniell threw two scoreless innings with four strikeouts.

Redrafts
RHP Grayson Saunier, Texas’s 19th-round selection in 2022 out of high school, was picked in the 17th by Houston after seasons with Mississippi and the Longhorns. The Tigers grabbed SS Jack Goodman in the 15th round from Northeastern; he was Texas’s unsigned 15th-rounder from 2022.

Draft
Based on what transpired yesterday, I should have either quintupled the effort on my draft preview or skipped it entirely. The actual picks deviated from expectations immediately when the Nationals selected high school shortstop Eli Willits, and the Angels threw everyone for a loop by taking Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner. Yesterday, I summarized eight players among six mock drafts. Excluding overlaps, I tallied 30 distinct player-selection slots. The number of actual picks that matched? Zero. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, who submitted his mock literally minutes before the first pick (so I didn’t cover it), correctly predicted Texas’s first pick as well as Steele Hall heading to Cincinnati at #9. 17 of the top 27 picks were high school shortstops or college pitchers.

1/12. SS Gavin Fien (Age 18.4, 6’3″, 200)
Ranked #31* by Baseball America, #22 by MLB.com, #12 by ESPN, #34 by FanGraphs, #9 by Baseball Prospectus, #12 by The Athletic

The pride of Temecula, California, Fien was the sixth high school shortstop taken in the first 12 picks. He owns a quick bat, a sharp eye, he doesn’t miss much and already has the swing to turn raw power into results. Fien swings and defends upright and isn’t the most fluid athlete you’ve ever seen. My reaction after about 1.5 seconds of video was “third base, maybe right” but we’ll see. The good news is the arm will play anywhere, and the bat, should it develop as hoped, will play on a corner. He will be given the opportunity to develop as a shortstop. He’s not going to provide value with his speed.

Fien made his name in last summer’s showcases, but his spring was muted, producing some hesitance in his evaluations. I imagine the organizations response to last summer was “we love this guy,” and to his lesser spring, “we can work this out.” Excluding last-minute updates, no mocks I saw had Fien going higher than 15, and he was popular in the late teens.

Texas hadn’t selected a high schooler first since 2018, and the last time that grabbed a high school shortstop in this range was Benji Gil in 1991. Fien is committed to the Texas Longhorns, but I’ll forgive him for spurning my alma mater.

2/52. RHP AJ Russell (Age 21.0, 6’6″, 195)
#37 by BA, #70 by MLB, #67 by ESPN, #68 by FanGraphs, #40 by BP, #71 by The Athletic

Russell was a Tennessee teammate of current Hub City OF Dylan Dreiling (2024 3rd round) and Cal Stark (2024, undrafted). He features a fastball that sits “only” 92-94 but has touched 98 and plays way up thanks to a low release (especially relative to his 6’6″ height), extension and massive movement. A rising power sinker, if you will. In 70 college innings, he struck out 104, a 37% rate. Russell also provides a mid-80s slider and changeup. Results with those pitches haven’t been stellar, but they do offer promise.

About those 70 innings: those aren’t from 2025 alone, they’re his entire three-season output. He missed some time as a freshman, and his 2024 and 2025 were severely shortened by brace surgery. One can read about him and quickly conclude “sounds great, but he’s a reliever,” and that may very well be, but none of the reviews I’ve seen suggest rotation development is a waste of time and are actually more optimistic than I would have expected. In any case, Texas doesn’t shy from injury recovery projects at all.

3/84. SS/RHP Josh Owens (Age 18.5, 6’3″, 185)
#77 by BA, #89 by MLB, #46 by ESPN, #43 by FanGraphs

Owens played in Johnson City, Tennessee, and is committed to Georgia Southern. He’s pointedly listed as a two-way player on the official board, and local reports say he’ll have the opportunity to develop that way. He showed some pop this summer and has the body to grow into more. Commentary on the bat is mixed, with positive reports on the results of his contact but worries about pitch recognition and swing length. Reports are skeptical of his likelihood of staying at short, but he appears to have the arm for third and at least the speed for center.

Most publications gloss over his pitching or ignore it. Baseball America mentioned him touching 94 MPH but in the context of him fitting well at third, and FanGraphs describes an “odd throwing stroke” and “near sidearm slot” (I watched some video and can confirm.)  He’s definitely a project, hopefully a fun one for both Texas and us. The 3rd is my favorite “roll the dice” round, so in that respect I’m happy.

Destinations of everyone I covered yesterday:
#8 SS Jojo Parker, Toronto
#9 SS Steele Hall, Cincinnati
#14 SS Daniel Pierce, Tampa Bay
#15 RHP Kyson Witherspoon, Boston
#18 SS Kayson Cunningham, Arizona
#19 C/OF Ike Irish, Baltimore
#25 LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, San Diego
#26 RHP Gage Wood, Philadelphia

Texas has selected through the 10th round as I conclude today, but I’ll cover them and the rest tomorrow.

Cade Obermuleler, Texas’s longshot 19th-round selection last year from Iowa, was redrafted 63rd overall by the Phils.

* As a fan, it’s easy to treat various publications’ pre-draft rankings as gospel and grade team’s picks accordingly. After all, they put in the work, and you and I didn’t. Don’t fall into that trap. These publications are valuable, peppered with knowledgeable writers, but they are providing opinions, not facts, about players with huge variance in potential outcomes. Teams have their own opinions, and there are occasions even near the top of the board when one team’s absolutely adored selection is a hard pass for another. I’m not saying you’re obligated to like the Fien pick. Maybe you liked a different prep bat or a college pitcher who’ll advance faster. That’s all fine, but “Baseball America ranked him 31st, so he’s a reach” is itself a bit of a reach.

Futures Game
Whoops. I wrote this up Saturday but neglected to include it Sunday. Sebastian Walcott was 0-1 with a sac fly in yesterday’s Futures Game. He grounded to short at 104 MPH and lofted a two-strike below-the-zone changeup from Marquis Grissom Jr. to center. Stationed at third base, he ably converted two grounders.

Box Scores

AAA: wet

After the break, the Express will hit the road for a week and a half. Sunday was their third home rainout in eight scheduled games, delaying Jon Gray’s second appearance in real action. Also, the rain plus some time off immediately after the demotion has limited Josh Jung to five games in the last 11 days.

Texas released righty Patrick Murphy. A dark-horse contender for an Opening Day spot, Murphy was injured late in Spring Training and missed nearly two months. Upon return, he pitched reasonably well, not missing many bats but generating plenty of grounders. I don’t know if the release was a clause Murphy could trigger, but regardless, I didn’t get the sense he was on the short list for a call-up.

AA: Frisco 9, at Amarillo (ARI) 1
Frisco: 14 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 7-11, 3 GB, 45-41 overall

SP Trey Supak: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 84 P / 54 S, 4.09 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-5, 2B, .252/.326/.415
1B Abi Ortiz: 4-5, 2B, HR (12), .225/.334/.396

Frisco led entering the 8th inning of all six games at Amarillo but head home with three wins. The offense did manage to shake off the doldrums, admittedly in a favorable environment. During the last two months, Cam Cauley is hitting .274/.348/.464. He’s matched last year’s full-season total of 33 walks in 69 fewer plate appearances while splitting time between short, center and second.

Hi-A: Hub City 3, @ Rome (ATL) 1
Hub City: 6 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 13-8, 1 G up, 44-42 overall

SP Jose Gonzalez: 5 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 79 P / 54 S, 2.73 ERA
RP Erik Loomis: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 1.80 ERA
LF Dylan Dreiling: 1-3, HR (8), .214/.311/.354
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, 2B, .233/.303/.364

Another solid day for Jose Gonzalez. Gonzalez doesn’t feel like he’s been around that long, but he actually signed prior to the July 2 signing date in 2019, so I believe he can become a free agent after the season if not protected on the 40. He didn’t pitch in 2019, missed 2020 along with everyone else, spent 2021 in the Dominican Summer League and all of 2022 and much of 2023 at the complex. Gonzalez doesn’t quite appear to be 40-worthy or the type to be selected in a Rule 5 draft, but he’d be a great guy to keep around if possible. (There’s also a possibility he’s not eligible to leave until after 2026; I’d have to check.)

The Spartanburgers are above .500, but writing about the offense hasn’t been easy. Hub City doesn’t have any active hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or better.

Lo-A: Hickory 2, at Lynchburg (CLE) 11
Hickory: 8 hits, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 15-5, 1.5 G up, 48-37 overall

SP David Hagaman: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 45 P / 36 S, 6.23 ERA
RP Brock Porter: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.49 ERA

Lynchburg scored eight in a 33-minute, three-pitcher, 60-pitch 7th. David Hagaman has a .200/.265/.200 opposing line despite his 6.23 ERA, which resulted from a single bad inning.

The Rangers pick 12th, 52nd and 84th today. Among experts of the amateur game, the consensus is there’s no consensus, even among the top few picks. Safer college-aged hitters are wanting, while college arms and prep hitters are more prominent. Many recent mocks have the Rangers selecting a high school hitter, which would break from the recent trend. Texas hasn’t selected a high school player in the first round since 2018 or a high school hitter in this range since Jake Skole in 2010.

Players are ordered by most recent appearance in a mock from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN, The Athletic, or CBS.

RHP Kyson Witherspoon (Age 20, Oklahoma)
Baseball America draft 7.0 (today), BA 6.0 (9 Jul) BA 5.0 (30 Jun)

Witherspoon’s fastball sits comfortably in the mid-90s, augmented by a cutter, slider, curve and a change that was functional if seldom used. His control improved substantially in 2025, reducing some of the reliever risk.

With the essential caveats that I am not even remotely the expert on the draft and didn’t even spend as much time as usual writing this preview: More than anyone else I’ve studied in writing this piece, Witherspoon makes me feel things.

SS Daniel Pierce (19, Hoschton, GA)
MLB.com final draft (12 July), CBS (11 Jul), MLB.com draft 3.0 (10 Jul), MLB.com 2.0 (3 July)

Apparently a lock to stick at short, and speedy as well, Pierce climbed the rankings with an improved bat this spring. Ideally, he’ll make ample contact and add some power. He’s committed to Georgia.

SS Kayson Cunningham (Age 19, San Antonio, TX)
The Athletic (12 Jul), BA Staff 1.0 (31 Mar), BA 1.0 (10 Mar)

Arguably the best pure bat coming out of high school. Arguably the best bat, period. On the downside, he’s already 19, his listed height of 5’10” might be generous, and he’s already filled out physically. Defensive reviews aren’t bad but question his likelihood of sticking at short. He’s committed to the Longhorns.

SS Steele Hall (Age 17, Trussville AL)
ESPN 3.0 (11 Jul), BA 3.0 (12 May), ESPN 2.0 (18 Jun), BA 1.0 (28 May), BA Staff 2.0 (12 Apr)

13 months younger than Cunningham, Hall is much more likely to remain at short and has far better speed. While he’s shown promise at the plate, his whiff tendencies will present a challenge for developmental staff. He’s committed to Tennessee.

RHP Gage Wood (Age 21, U of Arkansas)
Baseball America Staff Draft 3.0 (7 Jul)

Even if you ignore college ball, you’ve probably heard of him, as he threw the 19-strikeout no-hitter in the College World Series. A shoulder impingement limited him to only 37.2 innings in 2025, but he fanned 46% of opposing batters. He deals an upper-90s fastball, hard curve, hard slider and very occasional change.

OF/C Ike Irish (Age 21, Auburn)
ESPN Expert Draft (30 Jun)

Potentially the second college bat off the board after Aiva Arquette and first available to the Rangers. My bias* is for positional certainty from catchers, but Irish doesn’t provide it. Still, Irish might have the bat to cover an outfield corner or first base. Every recent mock I’ve seen has him off the board before Texas picks.

* I haven’t performed any research or analysis, but when I read a player “might” stick at a position, I assume he won’t, so I assess the bat based on the fallback position.

SS Joseph “Jojo” Parker, (Age 18, Purvis, MS)
CBS draft (28 June), BA 4.0 (9 Jun), MLB.com 1.0 (6 May)

Here’s the reason for the “arguably” qualifiers on Kayson Cunningham’s bat, as Parker can make a strong case for superiority. His contact ability rivals Cunningham, and his build could offer more power. Parker is also on the older side (19 in August) and likely to move to third or second in the long run. Like Irish, Parker appears unlikely to drop to Texas.

LHP/1B Kruz Schoolcraft (Age 18, Portland, OR)
BA 2.0 (14 Apr)

The outlier in the group, a high school pitcher. Schoolcraft is 6’8” with a monster fastball, but his secondaries lag, and he comes across as more of a project than anyone I’ve covered. Several recent mocks attach him to the Royals at #23.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 5, Albuquerque (COL) 1
Round Rock: 8 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 8-7, 2 GB, 42-48 overall

SP Josh Sborz: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 26 P / 15 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Michael Plassmeyer: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 4.45 ERA
RP Cole Winn: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
3B Josh Jung: 1-3, 2B, BB, .217/.250/.304
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, HR (15), .300/.385/.530
CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, HR (8), .260/.347/.405

In his first rehab outing, Josh Sborz recorded two outs and a first strike to Zac Veen, but 2B Cody Freeman couldn’t quite corral Veen’s grounder to his deep left (justly ruled a single). Keston Hiura followed with an eight-pitch double, and Sterlin Thompson walked on six pitches, ending Sborz’s night. Sborz’s fastball topped at 92.7 and averaged 91, well below his standard. He mixed it with an 80-ish curve and 84 slider. He missed four bats.

Cole Winn’s unearned run streak in AAA reached 28.2 innings. As I covered when he was first recalled, there’s more than a little luck built into that streak. Regardless what matters is becoming a bullpen fixture in 2025, since Texas’s understandable reliance on short-term free agents this season will result in another full-scale rebuild this winter.

AA: Frisco 3, at Amarillo (ARI) 5
Frisco: 7 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 6-11, 4 GB, 44-41 overall

SP Mitch Bratt: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 86 P / 61 S, 2.73 ERA

Eight hits is a season high off Mitch Bratt. Bratt isn’t strong at squelching power. He leans toward fly-prone and owns a slightly-below-average .392 oppo slugging percentage, courtesy of 28 extra-base hits including eight homers. His skill is keeping the bases clear in front of those harder hits. The gap between his walk rate (4%) and strikeout rate (30%) is elite.

Amarillo walked off with a walk and homer against Josh Mollerus, who began his AA adventure with three scoreless outings but has struggled in two appearances in a city that has no analog in the Sally League.

Hi-A: Hub City 0, @ Rome (ATL) 10
Hub City: 2 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 13 hits, 9 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 12-8, 1 G up, 43-42 overall

SP Mason Molina: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 0 SO, 45 P / 26 S, 4.11 ERA

An ugly outcome, but I appreciate Hub City easing my burden on Draft Day.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, at Lynchburg (CLE) 0
Hickory: 11 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 16-4, 1.5 G up, 49-36 overall

SP Caden Scarborough: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 5 SO, 72 P / 44 S, 3.50 ERA
RP Jake Jakeielek: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 5.52 ERA
RP Kyle Larsen: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-4, BB, .270/.409/.336
RF Hector Osorio: 3-5, 3B, .266/.404/.379
1B Pablo Guerrero: 2-4, .204/.282/.313

Another strong outing by Caden Scarborough, who pulled on his leash enough to finally reach five innings. I hadn’t given any thought to him finishing the season in high-A until now but I suppose it’s possible. That said, assuming similar results down the stretch, I wouldn’t consider 2025 to be any less of a resounding success if he stayed put. He’s one of the system’s highlights.

Hickory owns the leagues best record and run differential. Honestly, I saw an average squad on paper in early April, and it was until about three weeks ago, but I’m not complaining.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD (Jon Gray)
AA: Supak
Hi-A: Gonzalez
Lo-A: Hagaman

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 9, Albuquerque (COL) 8 (11)
Round Rock: 13 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 6 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 7-7, 2 GB, 41-48 overall

SP Ryan Garcia: 2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 52 P / 28 S, 9.17 ERA
RP Luis Curvelo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.67 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 3-6, 2B, SB (21), .256/.345/.390
DH Josh Jung: 0-6, .200/.200/.250
1B Rowdy Tellez: 2-4, HR (2), .333/.375/.800
LF Trevor Hauver: 2-4, BB, .273/.386/.421

Dustin Harris on June 3: .202/.221/.212, 0 extra-base hits
Dustin Harris since June 3: .298/.358/.532, 14 XBH

Studying the Statcast data reveals… hmm. Even during this better period, Harris’s median and 90th-percentile exit velocities are still more than two MPH below PCL averages. His upper-end velocity has barely budged compared to his earlier, power-free period. He does have a much better hard-hit rate lately (29% vs. the earlier 16%, all below the PCL average). He appears to have pushed more balls in the midrange of his velocity band up about three ticks, turning 88s into 91s, 93s into 96s.

Harris is also killing four-seam fastballs. He hit .267 with no extra bases hits against them through June 3, and since then he’s batting .459 and slugging .811, plus only three misses out of 161 swings. Overall, though, the change in Statcast data is muted compared to the huge increase in production. Keep in mind that I could be missing something, and that clubs have their own and much more detailed data which could (and probably does) contain info I’m missing.

Round Rock used eight pitchers including Craig Kimbrel and Peyton Gray for the second night in a row.

Josh Jung was 0-6, and four of his outs concluded the inning and stranded a total of six runners in scoring position.

AA: Frisco 4, at Amarillo (ARI) 1
Frisco: 8 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts
Record: 6-10, 3 GB, 44-40 overall

SP David Davalillo: 4.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 75 P / 49 S, 2.03 ERA
RP Larson Kindreich: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 3.18 ERA
1B Josh Hatcher: 3-4, HR (9), .258/.283/.394
DH Keith Jones II: 2-3, BB, .222/.317/.389

In three starts, Davalillo has walked three and struck out 14 in 13.1 innings. I’d mentioned seeing him in person on a slightly off night, and that night remains the least of his three AA starts.

Sebastian Walcott is out the weekend for the Futures Game.

Hi-A: Hub City 10, @ Rome (ATL) 2
Hub City: 14 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 12-7, 1 G up, 43-41 overall

SP Dalton Pence: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 49 P / 36 S, 1.64 ERA
RP DJ McCarty: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 6.04 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 3-5, SB (31), .255/.330/.321
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-5, HR (15), .216/.281/.392
CF Dylan Dreiling: 3-5, 2 2B, .216/.313/.348
RF Yeison Morrobel: 2-5, 3B, HR (5), .209/.277/.349
Julian Brock: 3-5, .222/.290/.314

Gutierrez is 7-for-13 with two walks and eight steals in his past three games. Since some time off for injury, Dylan Dreiling is hitting .295/.276/.307 in 23 games.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, at Lynchburg (CLE) 2 (7)
Hickory: 7 hits, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts

SP Garrett Horn: 3 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 45 P / 33 S, 1.64 ERA
RP Thomas Ireland: 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.04 ERA
LF Maxton Martin: 1-3, BB, SB (10), .268/.337/.449
CF Yeremi Cabrera: 2-3, BB, .246/.361/.325

Cabrera has been consistent; his worst OBP in a single month is .341. Platoon splits weren’t an issue last year, but lefties are giving him trouble in 2025 (.119/.275/.119). I sure would love to see Yeison Morrobel go on a tear. Now in his fifth season, he’s been highly regarded at times, and he certainly looks the part but is slugging .331 in 207 full-season games, which I wouldn’t have thought possible.

Lo-A: Hickory 4, at Lynchburg (CLE) 3 (7)
Hickory: 7 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Record: 15-4, 1.5 G up, 45-36 overall

SP Brooks Fowler: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 66 P / 47 S, 1.42 ERA
RF Hector Osorio: 2-2, HBP, .256/.400/.360

Hickory scored everything in the 1st, capped by Pablo Guerrero’s two-run double. Adrian Rodriguez allowed two runs in the 7th but held on. The 2019 39th-rounder has an arsenal that has produced 215 strikeouts in 143 pro innings, but his current opposing OBP of .379 is actually his best of the last three seasons. He can become a free agent after the season

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: Bratt
Hi-A: Molina
Lo-A: Scarborough

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The 11th-best season by a position player was Jurickson Profar in 2012.

For programming reasons, I can’t discuss any prior seasons. In 2012, Profar received the Elvis Andrus treatment, an assignment to AA Frisco at the age of 19 years and 44 days. After a slow first week, Profar heated up and never really cooled, embarking on a 29-game hit streak within a 49-game on-base streak, during which he batted .308/.373/.520. While he wasn’t going to match Elvis defensively at short, he reached base at slightly better rate than Andrus’s 2008 AA season and hit for much more power, providing 82 extra bases compared to Andrus’s 35 in a similar number of trips to the plate.

From there, the story got darker. Profar received a late-season call-up but would return to AAA to begin 2013, and although he spent most of that year in the Majors, he didn’t hit well. Still, 2014 was intended as his breakout, accentuated by the shocking trade of 2B Ian Kinsler to give Profar a home and bolster first in the form of Prince Fielder. It sounded good on paper (well… sort of), but at that point Profar suffered shoulder injuries that would wipe out his next two years. During 2016-2017, he played only 111 MLB games, and in September 2017 he was conspicuously not recalled from AAA, resulting in an extra year of contractual control. To my recollection, it’s the only obvious case of service-time maneuvering by the Rangers while I’ve been on the beat, and it included the arguably mitigating factor of the two years of service time he accumulated on the IL.

2018 brought the belated breakout offensively, but even then he was bouncing between short, third and first. After the season, he was shipped to the A’s for Eli White and Brock Burke (plus more) as part of a crowded three-team deal. Outside the Rangers, Profar has an OPS+ of 103 built on wild inconsistency, and he’s rated below average both in fielding and his spots on the defensive spectrum.

A click on the franchise page at Baseball Reference reveals pictures of Texas’s top 24 players measured by Wins Above Replacement. It’s a shame Profar isn’t among them. In a just world, he would have reached the list before reaching free agency. He was that promising.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 2, Albuquerque (COL) 3 (10)
Round Rock: 7 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 6-7, 3 GB, 40-48 overall

SP Ty Blach: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 25 P / 18 S, 3.88 ERA
RP Joe Barlow: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 5.27 ERA
3B Josh Jung: 1-4, .262/.863/.357
1B Blaine Crim: 2-4, 2B, .294/.380/.514

The bad guys scored the tying run off Robby Ahlstrom in the 9th. If you checked the box and saw a “Gray,” know that there’s a Peyton in addition to the rehabbing Jon, and the former is who threw the 10th last night. Josh Jung (1-4) lined a single to left. An effort an an oppo homer fell short.

AA: Frisco 12, at Amarillo (ARI) 13 (11)
Frisco: 11 hits, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 5-10, 4 GB, 43-40 overall

SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 73 P / 50 S, 5.69 ERA
RP Ryan Lobus: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 4.65 ERA
CF Cam Cauley: 3-5, SB (24), .254/.330/.419
SS Sebastian Walcott: 1-6, HR (9), .238/.338/.381
C Ian Moller: 1-5, HR (4), .235/.329/.356

Walcott’s dinger broke streaks of 32 games without a homer(.220/.338/.246) and 23 games without any extra-base hits (.209/.317/.209). He did at least reach base at a reasonable rate in this time. Josh Stephan pitched well and in fact has two of his better starts of the season in the league’s least hospitable park.

Oh, about that score. Frisco led 11-2 in the 8th, only for Amarillo to plate five that inning and four in the 9th. With the score tied, the bases loaded and two out, reliever Gavin Collyer went 3-0 to Tommy Troy and on the next pitch barely nabbed the border to avoid a walk-off. He then induced a flyout to force extras, but after a trade of runs in the 10th, Amarillo singled in the gift-runner in the 11th.

Hi-A: Hub City 6, @ Rome (ATL) 1
Hub City: 11 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Record: 11-7, , 42-41 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 27 P / 20 S, 5.77 ERA
RP Dylan MacLean: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 3.86 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 3-5, 3 SB (30), .248/.325/.315
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, .228/.300/.359

Anthony Gutierrez stole three bases after the previous night’s four. Employing his speed has never been an issue.

Kolton Curtis avoided a walk for the first time this season.

Lo-A: Hickory 3, at Lynchburg (CLE) 2
Hickory: 7 hits, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 13-4, tied for 1st, 46-36 overall

SP Enrique Segura: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 72 P / 48 S, 3.53 ERA
RP Brock Porter: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 3.56 ERA
RP Luke Savage: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 1.38 ERA
2B Antonis Macias: 2-4, 2B, BB, .275/.416/.344
C Ben Hartl: 1-4, HR (1), .216/.351/.287
1B Pablo Guerrero: 1-2, 2 BB, .198/.279/.306

Enrique Segura settled down after a messy, two-run, 26-pitch 1st. He retired his final 14 opponents in order. Porter’s outing never evolved beyond “messy,” but he and following reliever William Privette managed to escape unharmed.

Pablo Guerrero essentially disappeared just before Memorial Day. Since then, he’s fanned in just under a third of his plate appearance and is somehow hitting under .200 when he makes contact. Guerrero won’t turn 19 until the end of this month.

Hickory has three more wins than any other team in the division and the best run differential in the league (+60).

Today’s Starters
AAA: Garcia
AA: Davalillo
Hi-A: Pence
Lo-A: Horn / TBA

Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The 12th-best rotation season belongs to Luke Jackson in 2013.

Jackson was picked 45th-overall in 2010. Both during his climb to the Majors and thereafter, he’s had a strange career, sometimes amazingly dominant, sometimes giving the impression he’ll be out of pro ball within weeks. Even during 2013, I wouldn’t have bet on him still being around in 12 years. His stuff was electric but erratic, while his control was almost always a problem.

After a couple of seasons that offered promise but not much on the stat sheet, Jackson returned to high-A Myrtle Beach and stepped forward. More and better strikes reduced both his walk and hit rates. While he never produced a double-digit strikeout performance, he consistently missed bats and allowed zero runs in one-third of his starts. Promoted to AA, Jackson was indomitable in a much tougher environment, striking out nearly 30% of his opponents and posting an 0.67 ERA.

Jackson never reduced his reliever risk substantially. He always had a solid fastball but needed time to build the secondaries and tighten his delivery. His curve eventually transformed to a slider after years of teasing. In 2015 the Rangers switched him to the role he occupies today. He was all over the place in AAA and the Majors, and at the end of 2016, with his value at an ebb, he was traded for a modest return to Atlanta. Through multiple injuries he’s maintained employment, even becoming Atlanta’s and Texas’s closer for a while, but for the most part he’s been a middle or setup reliever with varying levels of trustworthiness.

Coming in at #11 on the list is Justin Grimm in 2012.

Grimm was selected in 2010’s fifth round out of Georgia. In a way, he was a predecessor to Alejandro Rosario (note: results pending), weak statistically in college but viewed as having potential that a professional development staff could tap. He didn’t pitch in the pros during his draft year but reached AA by the start of his second full season. In 13 starts, he posted a 1.87 ERA with an opposing line of .228/.267/.316. At that point, two years and a week after his draft date, the Rangers called him up for his MLB debut. Grimm tossed six innings of three-run ball against the Astros and earned the win. After a lesser start and relief appearance, he returned to Frisco but jumped to AAA Round Rock the next week. Results weren’t as forthcoming there, but he would make two more MLB relief appearances in late September. (For what it’s worth, MLB results have no bearing on my rankings.)

2013 was a tough year, but he still was viewed positively and was part of the package for Matt Garza at the trade deadline. Justin Grimm ended up with an 80 ERA+ and replacement level WAR across nine MLB seasons, but some of those seasons were worthy, and I’d argue his quick ascent and contributory value to that trade (even though Garza didn’t pan out) count as an organizational success.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 5, Albuquerque (COL) 3
Round Rock: 12 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 6-6, 3 GB, 40-47 overall

SP Jon Gray: 2 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 32 P / 20 S, 4.50 ERA
RP Kohl Drake: 5 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 4.32 ERA
CF Dustin Harris: 2-2, HR (7), 2 BB, HBP, 2 SB (20), .255/.348/.392
Josh Jung: 1-5

Last week, Kohl Drake pitched better than his line of 3.1 IP, seven hits and four runs. Last night was the reverse. Drake had four swinging strikes, his lowest total of the season in any appearance of length. Opponents missed only one of 20 swings on-zone pitches. He allowed a homer to his first opponent and four other balls in play that at least hinted at leaving the yard, all 97 or higher off the bat and lofted. He also had a stretch of five batters in which he started 0-2 but ended up expending a large number of pitches trying to finish them off:
Sean Bouchard: 7-pitch walk
Owen Miller: 4-pitch GIDP
Drew Romo: 6-pitch walk
Aaron Schunk: 6-pitch flyout
Adael Amador: 9-pitch groundout

That said, the takeaway isn’t “oh no, he’s bad” or even “he’s worse than advertised.” As with David Davalillo three weeks ago, I simply caught him on a lesser night. It happens. Despite the 0-2 issues, Drake completed five innings on a reasonable 72 pitches, and two of those innings went by in a flash.

Drake’s fastball has plenty of run and averaged 93.8, topping at 95.5. Statcast would lead you to believe he emphasized the slider, but it’s frequently mischaracterizing a curve that peaks in the low 80s and actually has more horizontal break than his slider, which veers into cutter territory. He K’ed Sam Hilliard on a called curve and Zac Veen on a fastball. He also offered a mid-80s change.

Jon Gray pitched well in his first rehab appearance. His fastball averaged 94 and topped at 95.0. He added a slider averaging 86, a few curves in the 77-82 range, and a change. Sam Hilliard sat on a first-pitch fastball for a homer that is listed at 350′ despite skying over the 407′ mark left of center.

Josh Jung lined hard to center in his first appearance and was robbed of two RBI on another liner snared by rehabbing shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Dustin Harris had a day, homering to lead off the 1st and reaching four other times. I haven’t had a chance to analyze the Statcast data, but his results are vastly improved lately. On June 3rd, Harris was hitting .202/.331/.212 with a double as his only extra-base hit. Since then: .301/.365/.549 with seven homers.

AA: Frisco 3, at Amarillo (ARI) 5
Frisco: 6 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-9, 3 GB, 43-39 overall

SP Daniel Missaki: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 58 P / 40 S, 5.79 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 1-4, HR (8), .248/.327/.416
DH Sebastian Walcott: 1-3, BB, SB (20), .240/.341/.375
1B Abimelec Ortiz: 1-4, HR (11), .216/.332/.381

Homers off relievers Jackson Kelley and Josh Mollerus accounted for all of Amarillo’s runs. Frisco likewise produced everything via the long ball.

Hi-A: Hub City 2, @ Rome (ATL) 1
Hub City: 4 hits, 8 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 10-7, 0.5 GB, 41-41 overall

SP Josh Trentadue: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 83 P / 57 S, 1.27 ERA
RP Wilian Bormie: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2.70 ERA
DH Anthony Gutierrez: 1-3, 2 BB, 4 SB (27), .240/.319/.309
SS John Taylor: 2-4, 2B, HR (1), .375/.394/.563

An eight-pitch at-bat resulting in a triple ended Josh Trentadue’s night just shy of five innings and equaling a season-high 83 pitches. Trentadue’s ERA has improved from 4.46 in 2024 to 1.27 this year, but that includes a healthy dose of luck (bad last year, good this). That’s not to say he’s simply holding his ground; I’d still say he’s improved. Anthony Gutierrez stole four bases of Rome pitchers and catcher Mac Gusette, whose rate of one successful steal per 4.2 innings is second-worst among the 20 busiest catchers in the league. To drive that home, Arturo Disla stole two bases yesterday. Disla actually has four in his last four games. He’s not speedy, not at all, but he’s an alert runner who’ll take advantage of a sleepy opponent.

Lo-A: wet

Two Friday.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Blach
AA: Stephan
Hi-A: TBD
Lo-A: Fowler