SP AJ Alexy: 3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 9.00 ERA CF Bubba Thompson: 3-5, 2 SB (2) LF Leody Taveras: 2-5 DH Yohel Pozo: 1-4, 2B C Sam Huff: 1-4, 2B
Alexy’s overall strike rate of 62% was fine, but he walked three and needed 67 pitches in three innings. He relied heavily on the fastball (93-96) and slider (82-86) while sprinkling in changes and curves.
Daniel Robert missed on eight of 12 pitches and didn’t retire any of three batters. He’s walked three in two outings. Last year, he walked five all season. Offseason free agent Nick Tropeano, who aspires to be this year’s Drew Anderson, I suppose, allowed two runs and walked three in two innings. Two days after having nothing to offer, righty Jason Bahr completed a scoreless inning with two walks and a strikeout.
After the Express used their allotted pitchers for the night, infielder Nick Tanielu entered with bases juiced and a one-run deficit in the 8th. He induced an inning-ending double play and worked a scoreless 9th. Yes, even with 17 pitchers on the roster, their schedules dictate that a position player will take the mound in a meaningful situation during the season’s third game. Such are the times.
The Express did take their bats out of storage last night. Sam Huff’s 110.5 MPH lined double is the hardest-hit ball by the good guys this season. Huff also hit a groundout nearly as hard. Elsewhere Friend of the Newberg Report and Hickory fixture Mark Parker has a preview of this year’s Crawdads.
According to the official transaction page, the Rangers have promoted Future Considerations from Down East to Hickory. Long overdue, in my opinion.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Down East allowed six in the 9th to lose 11-10, a night after they’d scored six in the 9th to win. Frisco’s Ariel Jurado allowed 11 hits and seven runs in 4.1 innings. Jurado was considered Texas’s second-best pitching prospect at the time, after Yohander Mendez. I’d place the early 2017 version of Jurado somewhere in the 5-10 range of Texas’s current pitching crop. Jurado missed 2021 (no idea why) and signed with the Twins during the abbreviated Spring Training.
The Rangers finalized their Opening Day roster. Officially up, as expected, are pitchers Matt Bush and Greg Holland plus infielder Charlie Culberson. To clear three 40-man spots, the Rangers placed RHP Jose Leclerc on the 60-day Injured List, designated IF Sherten Apostel for assignment, and traded IF Yonny Hernandez to Arizona for non-40 OF Jeferson Espinal.
Back to my thinking from the other day, Leclerc was the obvious first choice to make room on the 40. I thought OF Zach Reks was next in line. Nothing against him, but I’ve just not heard much about the 28-year-old in terms of a potential active-roster role. My two “make[s] me sad but I get it” players were Apostel and RHP Demarcus Evans, who’s currently not assigned to a team. Next, Hernandez headed my “interesting territory” group.
I expect that the front office had their collective minds decided before Round Rock’s first game, but to the extent Apostel had a chance to make them second-guess, he definitely did not: 0-for-4 with four strikeouts, eight swinging strikes out of 15 pitches, insecure fielding at first. Acquired along with lefty Taylor Hearn for reliever Keone Kela, Apostel was the prize of the pair for a while. Multiple leg ailments limited him to 68 games last year, and he never acclimated to either Frisco or Round Rock. He’s still just 23, so there’s still time. I’m always fond of guys like Hernandezwho receive scant attention on prospect lists but you can gauge as having a real chance when you see them in person. Hernandez runs well, can play multiple positions capably and possesses an exceptionally keen eye for the strike zone. He’s not much of a hitter, but he could put enough balls in play to create an eye-popping OBP, and he was able to maintain enough of that ability as he faced increasingly tough pitchers. The 19-year-old Espinal will head to Arizona for now. He split last year between the rookie league (.352/.446/.507) and low-A Visalia (.216/.288/.288). Baseball America recently ranked him Arizona’s #27 prospect. “Toolsy and raw” seems a good thumbnail description. Texas also simply assigned offseason pickup Joe McCarthy to AAA without adding him to the 40. Per the beats, the outfielder is exploring potential options in Japan. Generally, clubs and MLB as a whole will permit players like McCarthy to seek greener pastures, but at the same time, Texas wouldn’t want to release him only for him to latch on with rival. Box Scores
SP Kohei Arihara: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 60 P / 36 S, 9.00 ERA RP Ryder Ryan: 2 IP, 1 H ,0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Hever Bueno: 2 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 4.50 ERA RP Nick Snyder: 1 IP, 0 H ,0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
I didn’t see anything in March to suggest Kohei Arihara had improved on 2021’s rough introduction to MLB, and last night didn’t help. Maybe that’s harsh, as only two balls were hit especially hard, and Arihara himself was hit on a comebacker by the opening batter. Regardless, there’s much work to be done to renew the possibility of rejoining Texas.
Nick Snyder swatted away three Chihuahuas in short order with a 96-98 fastball and 83 MPH downhill slider. His presence in AAA doesn’t bother me, but I’d say he’s got better odds of finishing 2022 and starting 2023 in Texas than a good number of current Texas bullpen occupants.
Round Rock has three runs and seven hits in two games, and that honestly oversells the performance. Just not much to say yet. Leody Taveras broke a string of 20 consecutive batters retired with a one-out 9th-inning walk but was doubled out attempting to advance on a deep Yohel Pozo flyout.
IF Matt Carpenter and pitchers Glenn Otto and Matt Moore are active. We’ll see how Carpenter’s situation plays out. Elier Hernandez is the only non-catcher I’d consider more of a sub/rotation guy than a regular, and Sam Huff and Yohel Pozo may DH frequently when not behind the plate, so Carpenter’s plate appearances are always going to come at someone’s expense.
Elsewhere Hickory lost a friendly to Division II Lenoir-Rhyne University 3-1. The Bears’ Wayne Cuda hit Ricky Vanasco’s first pitch over the fence.
St. Louis released IF Anderson Tejeda. Tejeda was an extreme high-variance prospect, but being released twice before his 24th birthday wasn’t a future I’d ever contemplated. He’d made tangible improvements in his hitting and fielding during 2018, and I was probably higher on him than most, but 2019 was shortened by injury. It’s easy to blame his premature MLB debut in 2020 (along with Apostel, Leody Taveras and Sam Huff) for subsequent events, but he could have just as easily stalled in AA/AAA if afforded a typical development path. 2020 and 2021 were tough on players, evaluators, everyone.
Today’s Starters AAA: AJ Alexy AA: off Hi-A: off Lo-A: off
Five Years Ago Yesterday The high-A Down East Wood Ducks won their inaugural game 7-6, roaring back from a 6-1 deficit in the 9th. RF Jairo Beras capped the scoring with a homer. The very expensive and notorious prospect would hit three more homers in his pro career and switch to the mound by season’s end. Down East was technically a new team but in essence the relocated High Desert Mavericks, which played in the most hitter-friendly park in the US, and that was the only thing friendly about the situation. The Rangers paid several million dollars to get out of that jackpot. I digress. Lefty Joe Palumbo walked three and struck out five in his high-A debut.
SP Jake Latz: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 4.50 ERA RP Tyson Miller: 1 IP, 2 H ,0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Yerry Rodriguez: 0.2 IP, 3 H ,3 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 40.50 ERA RP Daniel Robert: 1.1 IP, 1 H ,0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA LF Bubba Thompson: 1-4, HR (1)
Surveys show most fans don’t pay attention to the score when visiting a minor league park. Neither do I, albeit for different reasons. Ignorance was bliss last night.
In his AAA debut, LF Bubba Thompson homered to left-center on a fastball. Thompson actually got under the pitch just a little, but his strength and a favorable wind teamed to carry his moonshot over the fence. Thompson’s had Round Rock’s only other very hard-hit ball of the night, a groundout off the bat at 102 MPH. The team’s other three hits consisted of an opposite-field blooped double by CF Leody Taveras (1-4), a soft single by RF Zack Reks (1-3, BB), and a topped grounder by C Sam Huff (1-4) that might’ve traveled 30 feet.
SS Josh Smith turned an 0-2 count into a nine-pitch walk in his first AAA plate appearance. Smith was hitless with a strikeout afterwards. El Paso starter Jesse Scholtens leaned on a looping curve to great effect; 21 of 23 registered strikes, with only Reks’ single causing damage. Grant Gavin’s changeup-heavy approach and Jordan Brink’s “I dare you” heat combined for nine strikeouts in four innings. The Express just didn’t have much to say offensively.
On the pitching side, starter Jake Latz was his boringly solid self, offering a fastball that reached 94, a good changeup, a decent curve, and a slider that didn’t do as much. 26 on Thursday, Latz was a candidate for the 40-man roster over the winter and remains one for the rotation or in long relief if needed.
Yerry Rodriguez maintained last year’s switch to relief, dealing a 95-98 fastball and 82-84 slider. The heater has excellent movement, although the Chihuahuas did hit a couple squarely. Rodriguez’s breaker has been a work in progress. He switched from a curve last spring, and the slider’s efficiency varied quite a bit. Last night version was pretty easy to spot out of his hand but looked tighter that usual, and it’s a very different look than his running fastball.
I’d never seen righty Daniel Robert in person, and what I saw on MiLB.tv at Frisco was a 92-93 fastball. Last night, the range jumped to 94-97, so that’s noteworthy. It’s straighter than Rodriguez’s but he places it well. Robert also delivers a tricky 79-82 slider that wasn’t as consistent as what I saw last year. The better ones tease the strike zone but sneak outside (against righties). Last night, he was “behind” several of them, so they sort of looked like attempted backdoor sliders but missed inside every time. Robert was a senior sign out of Auburn and missed a years to surgery and covid, so he’s a Triple A newcomer at the age of 27.
Apparently, automated umpiring won’t reach the Pacific Coast League until mid-May. The human ump shaved off the top of the zone but didn’t get much grief from either team. As I’d hoped, the advanced stats for the PCL do appear at Baseball Savant, although some manual URL input is needed to find them, and I don’t know if season-long stats will be compiled. I was happy to see my observations about Rodriguez’s and Robert’s respective fastball movement confirmed. Rodriguez’s horizontal break ranged from 7″ to 13″, Roberts 1″-7″. Statcast struggled badly to categorize some pitchers, calling most of Latz’s output in a broad 84-94 range a cutter.
Note: Most individual game reports won’t be nearly this long, so if you’re thinking this is overkill, don’t worry. With just one game on the schedule that I attended in person, I expanded a bit.
Elsewhere Righty Jake Lemoine made the Opening Day roster of the A’s. Texas’s 4th-round pick in 2015 because a free agent after last season. Recently released pitcher Mason Cole and ex-Rangers IF Ti’Quan Forbes and LHP Brady Feigl have signed with the indy Atlantic League.
Today’s Starters AAA: Kohei Arihara AA: off Hi-A: off Lo-A: off
Moves Per local media, pitchers Matt Bush and Greg Holland and IF Charlie Culberson have made the team. The Rangers also may appear of a state of mind to upgrade OF Joe McCarthy from his current minor league contract to a 40 spot. If the move doesn’t also include an active roster spot, I’m not sure what that’s about. I seriously doubt McCarthy, who has very limited MLB experience, has an opt-out clause. Perhaps he has a gentleman’s agreement. I’m missing info and context and the time gather them, so I’ll leave it there.
Garrett Richards, IL’ed with a blister. Glenn Otto, optioned. Spencer Patton, optioned (but on the taxi squad, which I found out was still a thing about five minutes ago). Brandon Workman, released. Not all moves are official; I’ve only seen the Rangers themselves issue the Otto and Workman transactions.
So, at present the Rangers require four 40-man moves assuming McCarthy joins, too. As I tweeted over the weekend, If Texas’s thinking jibes with mine, moves 1 and 2 are easy, moves 3 and 4 (as needed) will make me sad but I get it, and moves 5 and beyond (if needed) get into interesting territory. Yes, that’s vague. No, I’d rather not elaborate right now. All in due course.
Tonight AAA: Jake Latz vs. El Paso
Wednesday and Thursday will feature Kohei Arihara and AJ Alexy on the mound, respectively. Beyond that, including Cole Winn’s first start, I cannot say. The strange timing of the Rangers beginning their season after Round Rock has left the Express without an official roster a mere four hours before the first pitch. I’ll be in Round Rock tonight, and if you’re interested in my thoughts during the game, follow on twitter @scottrlucas.
The other teams begin Friday.
Part II of the Daily Report Primer: Stats I Love and Loathe
Age The best prospects tend to receive aggressive assignments and are young for their levels. Down the road, they’re often omitted from my annual 40-Man / Rule 5 preview because they forced their way onto the MLB squad months earlier. If all you know about a player is his age, you actually know quite a lot. So, for example, when the Rangers assign 19-year-old OF Evan Carter to high-A, they’re were telling you something.
One shouldn’t get carried away with age, though. Of course, players drafted out of college will be older, and dismissing them for being (gasp) 23 by the time they reach high-A would be ridiculous. However, those players are expected to perform better at the low levels and are on shorter leashes. (Incidentally, that a good many college players don’t handle A-level ball reinforces just how hard the pro game is.) Catchers tend to take more time, as do many pitchers.
The Rangers aren’t quite as aggressive with promotions as a decade ago. Promotions feel more player-tailored and less driven by organizational culture. Even so, they had the youngest hitters in the Triple A West and youngest pitchers in the Low-A East in 2021.
Slash Stats (Average / On-Base Percentage / Slugging) In the Majors, batting average isn’t a useless stat, but it matters far less than on-base percentage and slugging. In the minors, I like to keep an eye on it. Putting the bat on the ball with frequency and authority is what gets players noticed and moves them up the ladder.
Let’s look at a couple of made-up players with 500 plate appearances. Both have a .360 OBP and .440 slugging percentage:
Same OBP, same slugging percentage, very different hitters. Player A is kind of a cut-rate Joey Gallo, batting .238 with huge number of walks and good-but-not-elite power. Player B batted .319 but doesn’t walk much or offer much more than doubles power. There aren’t many Player B type nowadays. Michael Brantley last year. Elvis Andrus in 2016. Point is, knowing the batting average in addition to OBP and slugging can be surprisingly informative. That said, even in the minors, OBP and slugging are much more useful.
These stats mean the least at lower levels and gain importance as players advance. They also matter more to offense-oriented positions. Except at the extreme margin and probably not even then, a first basemen cannot compensate for weak hitting with outstanding defense. He has to hit.
Walks (Hitters) Laying off iffy pitches can be career-defining. Walks mitigate inevitable slumps. In the Luisangel Acuna example from yesterday, he drew six walks and an HBP during that 0-for-30 slump. That’s a .189 OBP. Not good, of course, but reaching nearly 20% of the time without a hit means he’s at least giving his teammates some chances with a runner on first.
Walks are a means, not an end, though. I do worry about players who rely too heavily on walks, which is easier to do at the lower levels where control is often absent. Selectivity is great. Passivity, not so much. Eventually, the hitter will rise to a level at which most pitchers not only have control but a semblance of command, and the hitter will have to adjust.
Automated strike zones are coming to the Pacific Coast League in 2022. I am very much looking forward to seeing robo-umped balls and strikes called in person.
Strikeouts (Hitters) To some extent, we can ignore hitters’ strikeouts. What really matters is how they perform when they don’t. Not to be flip, but strikeouts for hitters don’t matter until they do. At some point, they reach a level that forces a herculean batting average on contact just to get by. For example, Adolis Garcia. Early last April, I gamed out what he’d need to reach a .300 OBP with so many strikeouts. As I tweeted: “Let’s say he can manage a 5% BB+HBP rate (well below league average) and a 30% K rate (well above, even in 2021). That means he needs to bat .263 for a minimum .300 OBP. And with all those Ks, that requires a .376 average on contact, about 50 points above the league average and better than what he’s done in AAA.”
Garcia ended up with a 6% BB+HBP rate and struck out in 31% of his plate appearances, close to my guesses. He also batted .364 when he made contact, roughly the 75% percentile among AL batters with at least 400 plate appearances. So, very good in that respect. And what did that high average on contact get him? A .286 OBP, 9th-worst among that same set of batters.
Some hitters are exceptionally good at avoiding strikeouts, but not particularly to their benefit. Most of the time, weak contact on marginal pitch isn’t any better than a strikeout.
Runs, Runs Batted In No.
ERA I do list ERA when recapping pitchers. Much of the time, it’s a handy stat, but it’s not the end-all and sometimes is lying to you. Let’s take two pitchers in low-A last year:
Player A: 4.28 ERA, 43% SO rate, 7% BB rate, .272 opposing OBP, 16.5 pitches per inning Player B: 3.68 ERA, 33% SO rate, 23% BB rate, 429 opposing OBP, 23.5 pitches per inning
Player B had the better ERA, but I’d pick Player A in a critical situation without question. B had a terrific strikeout rate but a bunch of innings marred by walks (mostly stranded, luckily) and elevated pitch counts. Pitcher A combined good control with an otherworldly strikeout rate, but the batters that reached were much more likely to get home. Usually, situational performance (such as runners in scoring position) tends to even out in the long run.
Sometimes a single terrible outing can wipe out a reliever’s ERA. My favorite example is John Smoltz back in 2002. He allowed eight runs in 0.2 innings in early April and needed three months of quality outings (including 37 saves!) just to drag his ERA below 4.00.
So, you’ll occasionally read something like “h;e spitched better [or worse] than his ERA would suggest.” If Players A and B continue to pitch as they have, Player A is far more likely to have the lower ERA eventually.
Wins and Losses A pitcher’s win-loss record was a decent stat when horses kicked up dust in city streets and laudanum was available over the counter. In the modern game, it’s meaningless.
Homers, Walks, Strikeouts (Pitchers) These are better indicators than ERA, which is often tied to luck on balls in play and how well relievers strand runners left behind.
Homers are trickier to analyze. More fly balls equal more homers, of course, but HR rates can bounce around crazily from year to year for no other reason than variance. Walk and strikeout rates tend to stabilize more quickly.
Walk rates ballooned in Low-A in 2021, courtesy of a missed year, the eradication of short-season ball, and hundreds of max-effort throwers with control in various stages of (under)development. Also: robo-umps:
Low-A Combined Walk/HBP rate: 2019, human umps: 10.5% 2021, human umps: 12.2% 2021, robo-umps: 14.3%
For 29 years, the worst combined BB/HBP rate in low-A (14.5%) belonged to the 1991 Augusta Pirates. Six teams were worse last year, five of them in the robo-umped Low-A Southeast. The other was Down East’s division opponent in Fayetteville, a Houston affiliate. The Woodpeckers walked or plunked 17.1% of opposing batters and set a all-time record of 196 wild pitches despite a schedule shortened 20 games by the pandemic. (Fayetteville also used an amazing 55 pitchers in 2021, including 30 different starters.)
There seems to be more pitchers who can abide the higher walk rate because they’re darn near unhittable otherwise.
Strikeout have risen so much that I constantly have to remind myself what constitutes an acceptable rate. In 2007, my first year on the job, the best team in the Midwest League (which contained Texas-affiliated Clinton) had a strikeout rate of 21.3%. Last year, the worst team in Texas’s low-A league had a rate of 22.6%. The league average has increased 6% in that span, about 2.2 strikeouts per game per team.
HBPs are kind of an afterthought in typical stat-watching, but they’ve risen greatly in recent years, and some pitchers are plunk-prone enough to seriously degrade their performance.
I tend to refer to these stats in rates per batter faced rather than per nine innings. Per-nine accounting can be skewed by the number of runners allowed. If two pitchers strike out a batter per inning, they obviously are striking out an identical amount per nine innings, but if one is allowing one runner per inning and the other two, the stingier pitcher has a 25% strikeout rate compared to the other guy’s 20%. That 5% is meaningful.
Opposing Slash Stats The opposing batting line relates closely to the pitcher’s core peripherals. I mention them often and think they’re interesting. Opponents batted a minuscule .146/.239/.259 against Cole Winn last year. Essentially, Winn turned everyone into a hitter in danger of losing his job. Winn’s combined walk/HBP was so-so, but really suppressed hits and power. Incidentally, Winn’s opposing average on balls in play was .199, which I seriously doubt is sustainable over the course of his upcoming time in Round Rock. Nothing against Winn, but some of those balls are going to find an opening.
Fielding Fielding is trickiest to evaluate from an outsider’s perspective. Fielding percentage rarely tells the whole story.
For example, over the course of a season, let’s pretend two infielders share shortstop duties equally. On their first 400 grounders, they’re identical statistically. But then on their next 20 grounders apiece, Shortstop 1 never a single one, but Shortstop 2 reaches all of them and turns 15 into outs and throws 5 into the stands, allowing those hitters to reach second. Shortstop 2 will have a worse fielding percentage, but he also turned 15 more balls into outs. Would you rather an opposing batter reach first safely 20 times, or reach second 5 times but get put out the other 15 times? Shortstop 2 is far more effective despite making more errors.
Even with no stats, you can learn plenty simply from where someone plays. For example, Frisco had a quartet of Bubba Thompson, JP Martinez, Josh Stowers and Steele Walker for last season’s first 80 games. Who played CF the most? Thompson with 40 starts, followed by Martinez with 28. Walker made about three-quarters of his corner outfield starts in right, while Stowers worked each corner equally. The guy getting the most starts in center might not necessarily be the best on his team in that role, but at the least he’s who the front office wants to see there the most. (In this case, Thompson is actually is the superior defender.)
Statcast Clubs have advanced stats (exit velo, launch angle, spin rate, etc.) on minor leaguers, but to date they’re not readily available to the public. I’m hopeful that some info will be available for the robo-umped Pacific Coast League. If so, I’ll incorporate it into the reports.
Winning These are developmental leagues. Rosters aren’t constructed and games aren’t managed to win. Good prospects aren’t going to be benched if they perform poorly. Does the prospect quality of a system correlate to its performance in the minors? Here’s a chart of every team’s organizational ranking in 2021 per Baseball America and its full-season winning percentage:
Answer: kind of but not really. One higher spot in the rankings is worth about 1.5 wins out of 490 played. The correlation is very loose, and Tampa Bay (#1 rank and record) and Washington (#30 rank, #29 record) are doing all the work. Minus them, rankings and records are almost completely independent of one another. That said, over the years, the quality of Texas’s system has correlated pretty well to its record.
Not all rankings are created equal. An organization stacked with top-100 prospects will receive high marks even if depth is lacking, but that missing depth could result in a weaker record. Even if the Rangers put Corey Seager in Low-A (a move I’d advise against), there’s only so much one guy can do.
Some organizations emphasize winning more than others. For my outsider’s perspective, my concern isn’t about winning as much as excessive losing. What I’d hate to see is a Texas version of last year’s White Sox-affiliated Kannapolis club, which lost its first ten, then 16 of the next 20, and then dropped to 46 games under .500 until an 8-1 finish. That just doesn’t seem conducive to a positive development environment.
Starters The Rangers have often employed a six-man rotation in the minors of their own volition. Now, the rigid six-games-a-week schedule practically demands it. For viewing purposes, the advantage is that certain pitchers tend to start on a certain day on the week, and one could more easily match a park visit to that start if inclined.
The median length of a start by a Texas full-season minor leaguer in 2021 was 4.0 innings. Only 41% of starts lasted five innings or greater. Even with this limited workload, Texas wants its starters to get their innings in, so pitchers will often be allowed to press through situations that might get an MLB starter pulled. What will get a starter pulled early is excessive pitches. If the inning’s count has crept into the mid-20s with no end in sight, the bullpen will be active. Once it surpasses 30, the pitcher (especially if younger) could be gone unless the batter he’s facing makes the final out. Relievers Minor league relievers tend to pitch on a schedule rather than having situational roles, and the lost 2020 combined with expanded rosters (28 in AA/AAA, 30 in A ball) exacerbated that trend. Even in AAA, nominally the final training ground for the Majors, relievers usually pitch on prescribed days.
Pitching on consecutive days, already a rarity below AAA, became exceptionally rare events in 2021. In fact, for a good many pitchers, appearing on fewer than two days rest was uncommon. On August 7 in Round Rock, I was treated to an unexpected outing by Nick Snyder. He’d pitched on the 5th, so I assumed he was unavailable that night, but he made his first appearance of the season with fewer than two day’s rest. (It was, perhaps not coincidentally, his worst outing of the season.)
32-year-old James Jones appeared back-to-back once in AAA, as did 30-year-old Buck Farmer. Round Rock’s busiest relievers, all in their 20s but far from newcomers – Jake Lemoine, Ryder Ryan and Luis Ortiz – never did.
30 Texas minor leaguers saved a game last year. None had more than eight. Teams don’t have closers, or to the extent they do, they’re more like to rely on someone who might have a lower ceiling but is the most trustworthy at that level. In the last 14 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None of them has ever subsequently saved a Major League game.
Perhaps with the lost 2020 further in the rear-view mirror, AAA will tilt slightly more toward MLB-like usage, but again, with so many relievers vying for innings, I’m not expecting much difference from last year.
Sometimes in critical situations, managers have leeway to use relievers more traditionally. Eudrys Manon, Leury Tejeda, and Destin Dotson earned the lion’s share of late/close innings in Down East’s 2021’s playoff drive. Frisco leaned heavily on 2021 draftee Chase Lee and Daniel Robert down the stretch. In fact, Robert made his first-ever no-rest appearance on the seasons’ final day. (Regretfully, he was on fumes, got lit up, and Frisco lost a division lead held the entire season to that point.)
Batting Orders They aren’t necessarily optimized for run production and often don’t align with the relative qualities of the prospects. Don’t worry about them.
Walks and Strikeouts Both tend to increase as you descend the organizational ladders. Walks exploded in low-A in 2021, partly because of an unscheduled year off and partly because of the automated umpiring used in the Low-A southeast. The highest six team walk rates and seven of the nine highest team strikeout rates in low-A history were set last year. Strikeouts, as you know, are at historic levels. Not that long ago, almost any pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate was noteworthy. Last year, the low-A San Jose Giants had a team rate of 31.5%. (San Jose’s home stadium has an notoriously difficult batter’s eye, but still.)
Errors and “Mistakes” The number of miscues that give the opposition free runners or bases increases greatly at the lower levels.
If you attend an MLB game, the averaged combined walks, HBPs, errors, balks, wild pitches and passed balls you’re likely to see is nine. In low-A, it’s 14.
Running In 2021, Low-A as a whole had 1.6 stolen base attempts per game, the most in 20 years. Down East set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. Not coincidentally, a new rule limited pitchers to two “free” pickoff attempts per batter. A third attempt that didn’t result in an out was ruled a balk. Balks increased 60% in low-A compared to 2019, but I have no idea how much of the increase is due to the rule versus tighter rule enforcement and/or generally sloppier play following an absence of games in 2020.
Field and League Context Here’s the park-adjusted league averages for Texas’s full-season affiliates in 2021:
Round Rock: 5.5 runs per game, .259/.337/.454 slash line Frisco: 4.9 runs, .248/.332/.398 Hickory: 5.2 runs, .243/.329/.463 Down East: 5.1 runs, .241/.343/.377
Round Rock is pitcher-friendly relative to most of its peers, but the Pacific Coast League is so hitter-oriented as a whole that even Express hitters’ stats have to be viewed with a little cynicism. Down East scored a robust 5.3 runs per game despite an ordinary .244/.344/.379 line courtesy of all those steals and opposition miscues previously mentioned.
Luck The likelihood of a .250 batter going hitless in any particular 30 consecutive at-bats is extremely small: about 1 in 5,600. Spread that to 36 hitters* (nine per Texas’s four full-season teams) and the likelihood that someone starts the season 0-for-30 is still tiny: about 1 in 150. But, if you take a whole season with all the hitters and a huge number of overlapping 30-at-bat subsets, there’s a decent chance somebody comes up empty for a long spell. That very thing happened to a good prospect last year, Luisangel Acuna. He brought a shiny .375 average into his fifth game and went 0-for-30 (with six walks and one HBP) over the next nine. Did he have a mechanical issue? A minor injury? Maybe. I don’t remember. Acuna fanned ten times, so 20 balls in play went for naught. Even the weakest of hitters should squeak out a few safeties in that span.
Statistical variance in baseball is much higher than most people think. It’s important not to place too much emphasis on the short run, whether good or bad.
* Of course, Texas isn’t going to stick with the same 36 minor league hitters game after game, but I’m trying to make the math easier.
Promotions Promotions and demotions aren’t made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone else’s spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are sometimes complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than you’d like because Texas has to sort through all these issues.
Report Tone Even in a deep system, most of Texas’s minor leaguers aren’t going to reach MLB or make much impact if they do. Texas has 26 (or 28) Major Leaguers and 200+ minor leaguers. The cold math turns most of them into “failures.”
They are not failures. They’re exceptional athletes in an industry with a limited number of jobs. If you’re the 2,000th best accountant in the country, you’re doing great, plus you can start your own business if you want. The 2,000th professional baseball player is in Double A, and he can’t start his own league to compete against MLB. Also, we can argue about the relative entertainment quality of the current high-strikeout era, but the players themselves have never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with stuff that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago.
So, I want to be honest about a player’s chances, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but I’ll cover anyone having a great day.
Texas and their affiliates announced initial minor league rosters yesterday. Here’s a quick rundown. If I don’t mention your guy, don’t worry. We’ve got a whole season in front of us, and I don’t want to use all my material in an intro.
I’ve listed top-30 prospect rankings for Baseball America (BA), MLB, and the most contrarian rankings for Baseball Prospectus (BP) and ESPN.
AAA ROUND ROCK EXPRESS
Round Rock, Texas Pacific Coast League Texas affiliate 2011-2018, 2021-present
Pitchers Justin Anderson Kohei Arihara Jason Bahr Hever Bueno Jake Latz Tyson Miller Daniel Robert Yerry Rodriguez (MLB 27) Ryder Ryan Jesus Tinoco Nick Tropeano Dan Winkler Cole Winn (BA 3, MLB 3)
Cole Winn leads a group of eight faces familiar to Express fans. Winn isn’t first in line to replace a starter in Arlington if needed. He’s not any number on that depth chart. He’s just Cole Winn, prepping for an MLB debut to come when he’s ready, not when external circumstances dictate.
Rodriguez often dominated after switching to multi-inning relief late last season (perhaps not permanently, yet). A young 27, Robert doesn’t throw especially hard but spots impeccably and relies on a slider that has an invisibility cloak.
Tinoco (Rox), Tropeano (Dodgers most recently) and Winkler (Cubs) are offseason signings.
Catchers Sam Huff (BA 11, MLB 11) Jack Kruger Yohel Pozo (BA 28) Meibrys Viloria
The Rangers have seven catchers with MLB experience including these four. Keeping all probably isn’t possible, particularly assuming the parent club drops to two catchers. Catcher development requires inordinate patience, but even so, it’s a critical year for Huff, who after returning from injury didn’t catch at all and didn’t hit all that well (aside from power).
Infielders Sherten Apostel Ryan Dorow Yonny Hernandez Josh H. Smith (BA 9, MLB 7, ESPN 5) Davis Wendzel (MLB 17)
Smith began 2021 in low-A (too low) and has only 127 plate appearances in AA. I thought he might spend a little more time in Frisco, but I wouldn’t call this assignment a surprise. Almost exclusively a shortstop professionally, Smith almost certainly won’t wear a uniform with “Rangers” on it without proficiency at other positions, so we’ll see how he’s used with the Express.
Everybody but Apostel can play second, third and short, and they probably will. Apostel dropped from the prospect rankings after an injury-plagued and so-so 2021, but he’s barely 23 and has a chance to regain ground.
Although omitted from the 40 last winter, Thompson had a strong 2021 that eased if not eliminated concerns about his bat. His power showed up in games, and his strikeout rate dropped from 32% to 26%.
I saw Taveras at length in 2021, and he genuine improved during his time in Round Rock, but it didn’t translate to a better showing in Arlington. He’s still just 23.
AA FRISCO ROUGHRIDERS Frisco, Texas Texas League Texas affiliate since 2003
Pitchers Grant Anderson Cody Bradford (BA 23, MLB 20, ESPN 15) Tim Brennan Lucas Jacobsen Zak Kent (BA 17, MLB 21) Chase Lee Jack Leiter (BA 1, MLB 1) Seth Nordlin Fernery Ozuna Cole Ragans (BA 24) Justin Slaten Nick Starr Tyler Thomas Tai Tiedemann Avery Weems (BA 18) Grant Wolfram
Jack Leiter. Sorry, I don’t have anything to add to that. I just wanted to type his name again. He’s a Ranger.
Bradford, Kent, Ragans, Nordlin, Slaten, Weems and Wolfram combined for 95 of Hickory’s 114 starts last year. The first three finished 2021 in Frisco, and the rest are there now. Impressive to have an entire rotation graduate.
Catchers David Garcia Jordan Procyshen Matt Whatley
Barely 22, Garcia earned a 40-man spot before reaching full-season ball, lost that spot last winter, immediately re-signed and now has earned a promotion to AA. His overall numbers call that into question (.261/.299/.349), but he had a better second half. Garcia has always needed time to acclimate offensively.
Whatley has the field presence and defensive chops to play in the Majors, but even catchers have to hit a little, and he hasn’t (.203/.316/.282 in AA as a 25-year-old last year).
Infielders Diosbel Arias Blaine Crim Ezequiel Duran (BA 4, MLB 4) Trey Hair Nash Knight Jonathan Ornelas Nick Tanielu
Duran, the headliner of the Joey Gallo trade (although not by a large margin), has rarely played short
Crim isn’t a monster physically (no offense), is best-suited to first and doesn’t appear in anyone’s top 30 that I know of, but man, the guy can hit. Crim spent a portion of last year in Frisco and clubbed 29 homers between there and Hickory. He then lorded over Puerto Rico (.406/.452/.594) last winter.
Ornelas’s promotion is a mild surprise, as he batted .261/.310/.394 for high-A Hickory and is still just 21. He can play all over and spent nearly a third of his time in center.
Knight and Tanielu are 29 and vets of AAA. But they’re needed in AA for now.
Outfielders Sandro Fabian Dustin Harris (BA 5, MLB 6, ESPN 8) Julio P. Martinez Kellen Strahm Josh Stowers
Harris is pointedly listed as an outfielder. In the middle of 2021 I began seeing him described as a four-corner guy, which sounded swell but didn’t jibe with his near-constant presence at first. Harris did start at third more often down the stretch and will make his debut in the grass next week. He added power (20 HR) to his already superior contact ability, vaulting him up the prospect rankings.
Strahm isn’t a kid (soon 25, a senior sign out of San Jose St.) and has played in only 101 games in three years because of injuries and covid, but he’s got a nice mix of OBP skills, speed and defense.
Stowers (part of the Odor traded) hit the 20/20 mark last year in Frisco. The 24-year-old Fabian is a minor league free agent with 15 homers at AA Richmond last year.
HIGH-A HICKORY CRAWDADS Hickory, North Carolina South Atlantic League Texas affiliate since 2009
Pitchers Ben Anderson Marc Church Joe Corbett Mason Englert Kevin Gowdy Nick Krauth Jesus Linarez Eudrys Manon John Matthews Juan Mejia Spencer Mraz Triston Polley Tekoah Roby (BA 14, MLB 15) Josh D. Smith Ricky Vanasco (BA 13, MLB 14) Owen White (BA 7, MLB 8)
Based on everything I’ve heard about White lately, those rankings are going to appear conservative before long. Let’s hope so. Joining him is Englert, drafted two rounds after White in 2018 and with a similarly injury-delayed intro to pro ball. TK Roby, 2020’s 2nd-round pick, won’t turn 21 until after the season, Vanasco, placed on the 40 with a stitched-up elbow and no full-season experience, finally gets a chance to build on his breakout 2019.
Catchers Randy Florentino Cody Freeman Scott Kapers
A converted infielder, Freeman didn’t catch after returning from an injury last year, but he’s once again behind the plate.
Picked 29th overall in 2017, Chris Seise’s constant stream of injuries have limited him to 82 pro games. Given his luck, he was probably healthiest during 2020. Acuna stuck to second base after mid-July. He has the arm for the left side and was back at short during intersquads. The 19-year-old Saggese (2020, 5th round) walked at will in low-A and split duties between second, third and short.
The Rangers drafted the then-unheralded Carter in 2020 based on where they thought he’d rank had his senior high school season not been truncated by covid. A prescient move, given how quickly Carter established his prospect bona fides. They’ve treated him the same way now, promoting him to high-A despite a back injury that ended his 2021 after six weeks.
Hauver is 23 now and had a decent showing in Hickory (.246/.357/.426) but hasn’t staked out a position, so figuring out where he fits is probably easier with a return engagement.
LOW-A DOWN EAST WOOD DUCKS Kinston, North Carolina Carolina League Texas affiliate since 2017
Pitchers Michael Brewer Gavin Collyer Jose Corniell Destin Dotson Eris Filpo Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa Larson Kindreich Nick Lockhart Dylan MacLean Theo McDowell Damian Mendoza Teodoro Ortega Winston Santos Josh Stephan Leury Tejada Emiliano Teodo Bradford Webb
Not a bad set of pitchers despite the absence of top-30 recognition. Teodo features a triple-digit fastball and high-spin curve. The 19-year-old Santos has good control and touched 97 in camp. Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa fanned 38 in 22.2 innings with the rookies last year. He’s nicknamed “Bubba,” and given the length of his birth name, I might just list him as simply Bubba in the game recaps. Kindreich (2021, 8th round) struck out 18 against three walks in eight rookie innings.
Dotson and Tejeda were entrusted with critical relief innings during Down East’s playoff drive last September.
Catchers Tucker Mitchell Efrenyer Narvaez Brady Smith
If all goes to plan, you’ll read the name Efrenyer Narvaez frequently. How many catchers, even in rookie ball, can post a .353/.428/.500 line?
Thoracic outlet syndrome reduced Acosta’s pro debut to 17 lackluster games and dimmed his star a little. Still, he earned the promotion to full-season.
Outfielders Yosy Galan Daniel Mateo (BA 30) Alejandro Osuna Jose Rodriguez Marcus Smith
Smith, more highly regarded than Dustin Harris when both were acquired for Mike Minor, has barely played because of hamstring problems. Like Seise, he could regain status quickly with good health.
Galan started the rookie season 0-for-13 with ten strikeouts, and proceeded to hit .274/.350/.573 and rank second with ten homers in 47 games.
Unassigned Players Ranked By BA or MLB 3B Josh Jung (BA 2, MLB 2) IF Justin Foscue (BA 6, MLB 5, BP 3) Glenn Otto (BA 15, MLB 26, BP 8) OF Yeison Morrobel (BA 16, MLB 18) OF Bayron Lora (BA 19) LHP Mitch Bratt (BA 20, MLB 23) IF Cam Cauley (BA 25, MLB 22) RHP Dane Acker (BA 26, MLB 24) LHP AJ Alexy (BA 27, MLB 25, BP 10) IF Danyer Cueva (BA 29, MLB 30) OF Anthony Gutierrez (MLB 16)
Jung you know about. Foscue has back soreness. Acker is coming off elbow surgery. The rest are in limbo between MLB and AAA, with fates determined in the next few days, or are too green to earn their first full-season assignment.
Other Unassigned Players LHP Brock Burke RHP Matt Bush RHP Demarcus Evans RHP Greg Holland LHP Matt Moore RHP Brandon Workman IF Charlie Culberson OF Joe McCarthy OF Steele Walker OF Jake Marisnick IF Matt Carpenter
Limbo is crowded.
Released / Retired
OF Carl Chester — The player to be named in last year’s trade for Nathaniel Lowe. Chester batted .1856/.235/.305 in AAA last year.
RHP Mason Cole – Sorry, Aggie fans. Texas 27th-round selection in 2019 had a walk-heavy 4.01 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 24.2 innings for Down East last year.
RHP Luke Schiltz – Picked three spots ahead of Cole, the 21-year-old fanned and walked 19 in 16.1 innings with a 7.71 ERA for the rookie squad last year.
RHP Adam McKillican and Connor Sechler – free agents who reached A levels in 2021.
RHP Josh Advocate – Texas’s 20th-rounder from 2017 has retired. He missed most of 2021. Advocate pitched well in long relief for high-A Down East in 2019.
RHP Nick Yoder – Also retired. Texas’s 34th-rounder for 2019.
Outbound
RHP Collin Wiles signed with the Athletics. Wiles spent nine years in the Texas system, most recently acquitting himself well during his first action in Triple A. RHP Joe Gatto signed with Philly. Texas signed Gatto to a Major League deal the previous winter, only to see him pitch so poorly in Surprise that he was designated for assignment and unclaimed. Gatto quickly improved enough to pitch well in AA and AAA, but not well enough for Texas to re-40 him.
Finally
1) Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid and I recorded a podcast Wednesday, focusing on Tepid’s visit to Arizona. Link in signature. 2) The Dodgers traded for Craig Kimbrel one day after the pen allowed a homer to Corey Seager.
Texas’s Top 100 Prospects 3B Josh Jung: 9th by FanGraphs, 19th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 26th by Baseball America, 31st by Baseball Prospectus
RHP Jack Leiter: 20th by Baseball Prospectus, 24th by FanGraphs, 25th by Baseball America, 36th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN)
IF Justin Foscue: 50th by Baseball Prospectus
RHP Cole Winn: 52nd by FanGraphs, 60th by Kiley McDaniel (ESPN), 61st by Baseball America, 91st by Baseball Prospectus
IF Ezequiel Duran: 68th by FanGraphs, 99th by Baseball Prospectus
RHP Owen White: 84th by FanGraphs
IF Josh Smith: 89th by FanGraphs
I believe all the Jung placements pre-date his injury. On a subsequent podcast, FanGraphers Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein suggested he’d rank in the sixties as is.
Organization Farm Rankings 8th by Baseball Prospectus, (13th in 2021) 9th by Baseball America (24th last year) 10th by Kiley McDaniel / ESPN (20th last year)
Trade Both Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim have strong defensive reps, especially in terms of pitch-calling, but Texas’s catchers combined to hit .223/.257/.367 in 2021. Texas’s offense hasn’t been better than its pitching since 2016, and even then, just barely. 2020 was the franchise’s worst offensive season, and 2021 was no better than third-worst. This team desperately needs hitting. Mitch Garver will hit. (Also, the free agent market for catchers was exceptionally bleak.)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa admitted some grumpiness upon Texas’s acquisition of Seagar and Semien, and I can’t blame him. IKF’s bat has been worth about 1.5 wins below average (average, not replacement) per 600 plate appearances, but he’s compensated by fielding well at a premium position. Defense saved last year’s squad from a win total in the 50s. But again, the Rangers are focused on upgrading an atrocious offense. That’s not to pin it on IKF, who has an acceptable lifetime .316 OBP, but he’s the biggest trade chip if the strategy is to sacrifice some defense in exchange for hitting.
Kiner-Falefa received scant attention nationally while climbing the system, but those of us who focus mostly on the Rangers were on to him despite his lack of even doubles power at the time. IKF squeezes more out of his ability than just about any Ranger I’ve seen. He will not be denied. Best wishes to him.
I enjoy watching RHP Ronny Henriquez, but he’s the type you readily relinquish to push a deal for a starting position player over the line. His fastball is lively and angry, backed up by a capable if inconsistent slider and change. I saw him and Yerry Rodriguez back-to-back last July. Rodriguez’s fastball impressed the most, but Henriquez looked more likely to remain a starter. Henriquez induced nine swinging strikes with his slider. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henriquez slide into a reliever role. Here I hadn’t thought of Brad Miller as an option. He’s 32. He’s wandered through six clubhouses during the past four years. He’s made only 57 of his 700 career starts at positions needing the most help in Texas (3B, LF). But even with all the address changes, Miller has batted .250/.344/.487 against righties since 2018. Miller used to man short regularly, so I’d venture he could form the strong side of a platoon at 3B or LF despite the relative lack of experience. Against lefties, Miller actually homers at a similar rate, about one per 21 PA, but otherwise is of no help.
Martin Perez! Perez has averaged roughly one WAR per 100-150 innings in his career, and if he can give Texas 150 slightly-above-replacement innings in 2021, he’s a fine addition. Prior to his signing, Texas was in the position of asking some combination of Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, AJ Alexy, Glenn Otto, Kolby Allard, and perhaps a few others to fill three rotation spots behind John Gray and Dane Dunning. That’s a big ask. Perez will alleviate that pressure.
Free Agents back with Texas: LHP Sal Mendez, RHP Jesus Linarez, C Jordan Procyshen, IF Trey Hair, and as of yesterday, IF Charlie Culberson.
Among the recent signings to minor deals is OF Jake Marisnick, who’s totaled 11 wins above replacement in 800 games despite a .228/.282/.384 line, courtesy of superior defense. A nice depth signing and possibly more, depending on what Texas can do to fortify a still-thin outfield. Arlington native and Texas-Ex Brandon Workman is a Ranger following a second stint with the Red Sox. Workman has been off his game the past two years, posting a .5.66 ERA with 34 walks in 47.2 relief innings. Matt Moore, who threw 102 unmemorable innings for the unmemorable 2018 Rangers, is back. And, Texas just signed righty reliever Greg Holland, who’s been all over the map in terms of quality the past four years. The Rangers have some recent success snaring veteran arms, so perhaps Holland could be another.
IFs Nick Tanielu and Nash Knight are Rangers on minor deals. Neither appeared on any transaction list I’ve seen, but they’re on the Spring Training roster. Tanielu will be familiar to Express fans, having played for Round Rock as an Astro in 2019 and visiting last year as a member of the Padres’ El Paso affiliate. Tanileu excelled with the Express (.295/.360/.520) but was oddly ineffective at hitter-friendly El Paso (.233/.299/.415). The 29-year-old Knight — born in Denton, schooled at Dallas Baptist, professionally a Blue Jay until now — has played every position at some but it best regarded as a corner infielder with some moonlighting at second and in left. Both are seeking their MLB debuts.
There 1B Ronald Guzman signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.
San Francisco signed lefty Joe Palumbo to a minor deal. The Giants had declined to offer him a Major League contract after claiming him off waivers from Texas last fall, making him a free agent for a while. He’s a teammate of Luis Ortiz, who also signed with the Giants after spending 2021 in Round Rock.
Lefty Wes Benjamin, who became a free agent after being outrighted last fall, signed a minor deal with the White Sox.
Catcher Melvin Novoa and OF Pedro Gonzales signed with indy teams.
OF Lewis Brinson inked a minor deal with the Astros.
The Cubs signed OF Seiya Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract. Suzuki was the last available player in the “Other People’s Money” portion of my Nov. 16 report wherein I estimated value of lavishing $100 million annually (actually $108) on free agents. I had four and $44 in mind for Suzuki, so good for him on blowing by that.
Name Game Our long national nightmare is over. MLB is reinstating the traditional monikers for the minor leagues. MLB was able to recast the minors more to its liking after 2020, but it lacked the naming rights. Thus, the stilted Triple A West, Double A South, High A East, and Low A East. They’re gone, never to be uttered again in polite company, replaced by the Pacific Coast League, Texas League, South Atlantic (Sally) League, and Carolina League.
New Rules All full-season levels will institute a pitch clock of 14 seconds with bases empty and 19 (AAA) or 18 (elsewhere) with runners on. A 20-second pitch clock dates back to 2015 in AAA. I don’t know if the number of clock-enforced balls and strikes has declined, but my feeling is enforcement has become more lax over the years.
All full-season levels will play with the larger bases used in AAA last year. Also, the limit of two pickoffs or step-offs per plate appearance expands from low-A to all full-season leagues. A third pickoff that doesn’t result in an out is deemed a balk. Last year, Texas’s Down East squad set a low-A record with 2.42 steals per game. League-wide stolen base attempts increased 30% vs. 2019, and successful attempts jumped 47%.
The Pacific Coast League and Charlotte in the International League will employ the automated ball/strike system used last year in the Low-A Southeast and Arizona Fall League last year. I have a pet theory that players with superior batting eyes can walk at an outsized rate because they needn’t worry about varying strikes zones among umps or expansion of the zone in three-ball counts. Let’s check the stats:
Number of players drawing at least 1 walk per 6 plate appearances: All Low-A in 2019 (no robo-ump): 6 players, 0.20 per team 2021 Low-A West and East (no robo-ump): 5 players, 0.28 per team 2021 Low-A Southeast (robo-ump): 18 players, 1.50 per team
Ranger Trevor Hauver is among them; he drew 64 walks in 66 games in Tampa prior to his trade to Texas. I don’t expect an explosion in the AAA walk rate like what occurred in the Low-A Southeast last year. AAA pitchers have better control and are another year removed from the lost 2020. But we might see some hitters really take advantage of a “perfect” strike zone.
Levels below AAA will ban the shift; the four infielders must divide equally on either side of second and plant their spikes in the dirt.
Legal News Back in 2014, some minor leaguers sued selected MLB clubs and MLB itself over alleged illegal wage and labor practices. The players eventually formed a class that withstood a certification challenge reaching the US Supreme Court. Last week, a federal judge ruled on a host of pre-trial motions, most notably granting the plaintiffs’ summary judgment motion and ruling that the players are indeed “employees” under federal and state law, that players’ currently unpaid activities in spring training complexes are indeed “work,” and that travel time to and from Cal League games is compensable. The judge ordered $1,882,650 in penalties on the Cal League claim, with penalties in other states to be determined at trial if the case proceeds that far. Prior to this ruling, you might recall that MLB’s counsel recently had to defend the notion that minor leaguers not only should not be paid during spring training, but that the instruction and “life skills” received are things the players would pay thousands for at private camps. The judge was not persuaded, stating “defendants’ creative professional exemption defense fails as to all of Plaintiffs’ claims” and “defendants’ method of allocating signing bonuses and tuition payments to offset minimum wage liability is incorrect as a matter of law.”
The amount of money isn’t huge, relatively speaking, but it’s not nothing, and paying players during Spring Training would certainly represent a drastic change in business practices. If a court tells clubs owners they have to pay minor leaguers more money, owners might respond by employing fewer minor leaguers. 40 minor league teams already lost their affiliations after 2020. Under the new agreement, clubs are committed to fielding four full-season minor teams through 2030.
Rule 5 Draft Cancelled. Unfortunately, also cancelled is my annual trip to Arizona for the third straight year. Pre-CBA uncertainty about whether folks like me would be allowed in Surprise plus grim certainty about my current work schedule forced me to make an unappealing decision. Instead, later on this year I hope to visit Texas’s A-level clubs for the first time since 2011.
Jung Per local reports, 3B Josh Jung has a left (non-throwing) labral strain that will sideline him for an indefinite period and possibly require surgery. Terrible news for someone who might have won the starting 3B job out of Spring Training. I saw plenty of him last August and September and thought he was ready. At the very least, he was to be among Texas’s most prominent prospects when the minors resume.
FanGraphs.com’s just-revealed top-100 prospect list places Jung 9th, the highest I’ve seen him. I’ll have more on prospect rankings down the road.
Stock Photo Of Chain And Padlock Draped Over A Baseball
This week’s lengthier MLB-MLBPA discussions are encouraging, but on the whole, the lockout and tenor of ongoing negotiations reminds me of 2020’s reorganization of the minors. In that case, MLB patiently let the agreement with MiLB expire and largely dictated new terms to a collection of teams decimated by the pandemic. (Some have sued, but I don’t think they have much of a case.) In the current situation, MLB owners and management can’t domineer the Players Association as it did MiLB, but they seem willing to accept the loss of games and negative press in order to achieve the same resounding victory.
Fans have the right to be weary and disgusted, especially after two Spring Trainings impacted by the pandemic. I certainly am. However, I absolutely do not buy the “billionaires vs. millionaires” dismissal or the idea of locking them in a room until they work it out. The stakes are too high. For most players, this next CBA will govern what remains of their careers. The draft and reserve clause prevent anything approaching genuine competition for the services of most players. Salaries are essentially fixed. Any improvements in their compensation and working conditions must be obtained now. Likewise, for owners, terms that make the final version of a CBA tend to stick, so anything conceded now could impact profits and asset values well beyond the terms of this agreement. Per Travis Sawchik of The Score, 63% of MLB players in 2019 had under three years of service time. From 2011 to 2019, the average debut age increased from 24.6 to 25.6, but the percentage of players over 30 has decreased from 40% in 2004 to 30% now.
Entering 2021, the average MLB salary was over $4 million, but that figure is badly skewed by top-tier free agents and has no relevance for the vast majority of players. Roughly 45% of MLB’s active roster have salaries under $1 million. By my count, 30 of Texas’s 40-man roster members have yet to reach arbitration. Of those, I count 17 yet to reach $1 million in cumulative earnings, including signing bonuses. A decent number of them will eventually, of course, and I’m not trying to pass them all off as destitute. But for many of these players, minimum salaries are all they’ll ever see, so I think the union is right to weigh them heavily in the negotiations.
One Hundred Fifty
Connected to the critical monetary issues is MLB’s request (withdrawn as of Monday) for the power to lower the number of US-based minor leaguers per club from 180 to as few as 150. In the past, individual minor league teams had roster limits that generally guided the total number of players a club would employ, but clubs didn’t have an organization-wide roster limit to my knowledge. That has changed, and MLB may want the right to change it again for what seems a modest monetary benefit.
Reviewing Texas’s 2021 reveals what a lower limit would entail. 221 players took the field for the club’s minor league teams last year. Nine were rehabbing MLB players, another 17 were optioned 40-man members. That leaves 195 players on minor league contracts, to which must be added four absent from injury and seven draft picks who didn’t take the field. So, by my count, the Rangers had 206 players signed to minor league contracts over the course of the 2021 season. The total at any given moment was lower, but I don’t think the Rangers ever had as few as 150. Texas has at least 170 players signed to minor league deals right now. (Odds are my figures aren’t exact, but they should be close enough for discussion.)
The late-2020 overhaul of the minor league system eliminated 40 teams but guaranteed four full-season minor league teams per club through 2030. These four teams have a cumulative roster limit of 116. Rookie-level teams were and are at the discretion of individual clubs. Every club has at least one, some have two (not Texas). They have no roster limit and can stretch into the thirties and beyond. Staffing five teams with a maximum of 150 minor leaguers plus optioned 40-man members isn’t impossible but stretches resources awfully thin. A 150 limit would effectively prohibit multiple rookie-level teams within an organization.
Cutting aggregate roster sizes isn’t going to eliminate the AAA vets needed as MLB reinforcements, some of whom receive low six-figure deals. The eliminated salaries would be at the bottom, those making a few hundred per week.
Also, maintaining minor league rosters is difficult enough as is. Players get hurt and need replacements. Any promotion or demotion can set off a chain of transactions affecting the positions and plate appearances of multiple players. Now add to that the possibility of having to release a capable player in order to sign a draft pick, or putting forth a short-handed team, in service of some weirdly arbitrary roster limit.
Concurrent with this is the ongoing class action lawsuit by a group of minor league players against MLB. MLB’s argument ($ link) is that players are not employees during Spring Training, therefore they should not be paid. MLB’s counsel has reinforced this argument with a consulting study estimating that players receive training and benefits that would cost over $2,000 per week if obtained elsewhere, and that players gain “generally beneficial life skills” while in the minors. Silver Cloud, Gray Lining
Good news: The lockout does not affect the minor leagues. Games will continue as scheduled, beginning Tuesday April 5 in AAA and Thursday elsewhere. Bad: Texas will still have plenty of players worth seeing, but the lockout and absence of MLB action is not to MiLB’s benefit.
First: Everybody on the 40-man roster is exiled. If you visit a minor league park this season (and you should!), you won’t see Sam Huff, or Sherten Apostel, or Yerry Rodriguez, or Ricky Vanasco, or Ezequiel Duran while the lockout persists. These players already missed 2020, and some were shelved for all or part of 2021 due to injury. They desperately need the opportunity to perform, but they’re banished from MLB facilities just like Max Scherzer, Corey Seager and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Second: Think about Drew Anderson, Jharel Cotton and Spencer Patton. All signed minor league deals with the Rangers before 2021, pitched well in AAA, and finished the season in MLB with 95 respectable innings between them. Patton and Cotton enter 2022 with MLB contracts, while Anderson parlayed his success into a gig in Japan. For their 2022 equivalents, the goal of returning to the Majors may not exist in April. Sometimes, opportunities are created by a combination of two or three superior weeks in the minors and an injury or bad performance at the MLB level. Some of these players could play well enough to warrant a call-up, only to have nowhere to go. That’s depressing.
Minor League Rule 5 Results
The Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft has been, at best, delayed by the lockout, but the minor league portion proceeded as planned in December. Players already on the 40-man roster were off-limits along with up to 38 players in the AAA reserve roster. The Rangers fully stocked the latter roster preceding the draft, leaving them unable to select anyone. They lost four players. Say farewell to:
IF Charles Leblanc (4th overall to Miami) – With a revamped approach, Leblanc more than tripled his home run rate in 2021 despite playing in AAA for the first time. Leblanc also struck out more than ever and posted a career-low .313 OBP and .229 average. He’s best suited to the corners (including LF) but can handle second and spot at short in a pinch. Leblanc is more of a prospect now than two years ago, when he struggled in AA, but even with the improved power I wasn’t shocked that he was exposed to this portion of the draft. Conversely, Baseball America described him as having the “greatest offensive upside” of any hitter in the draft lacking MLB experience.
RHP Abdiel Mendoza (18th overall to Toronto) — Texas acquired Mendoza and RHP Teodoro Ortega in 2018 for reliever Cory Gearrin. Mendoza spent his Year 23 season in low-A, where he had his moments but struggled against lefties in general and everyone the second time through the order.
RHP Cole Uvila (26th overall to Baltimore) – Early in 2021, I thought Uvila had a shot to make his MLB debut. Like Joe Barlow, Uvila’s control ranges from so-so to frightening, but he strikes out plenty of hitters and manages to avoid too much solid contact the rest of the time. Or at least he did, until promotion to Round Rock, where in his first six outings he allowed 16 hits and walked 11 versus just three strikeouts. Still, writing off Uvila is premature. Recall that Barlow struggled badly in AAA and in successive spring tryouts before reaching the Majors.
RHP Nic Laio (27th overall to Pittsburgh) – His season mimicked Uvila. For a month, he was the system’s strongest reliever, fanning 31 in 18 innings with a 1.47 ERA for low-A Down East. Thereafter, mostly while in high-A, Laio continued to miss bats but was clobbered when he didn’t, permitting 11 homers and a .605 opposing slugging percentage in 38 innings.
Unlike some years, I didn’t have the reserve list before the draft. I did not expect Uvila or Laio to be exposed. That said, they were selected after two Rangers whose exposure didn’t surprise me.
Next month, none of the 2020 equivalents of Sam Huff, Demarcus Evans and Kyle Hendricks will be drafted. The good news is they become free agents. The bad is that they’re subject to a maximum bonus of $20,000. Again, that group of 2019 picks probably doesn’t mean much to you, but I listed them to emphasize just how drastically this year’s format will affect the Rangers and the lives of prospective draftees.
In late March, the MLB Players Association granted owners the right to reduce the draft to either five or ten rounds and defer 90% of signing bonuses in exchange for full service time and guarantee of partial salaries should the season be cancelled. Unsurprisingly, MLB chose the less expensive option, and this week it is seeking salary discounts beyond straight pro-rations for games played. These are terrible times, and most clubs, to their credit, are trying to cut costs without cutting personnel. On the other hand, MLB does not offer windfall bonuses to players when league revenues exceed expectations, and players didn’t see a dime of the $2.58 billion MLB received for stakes in its Advanced Media unit. Gross player wages actually fell in 2018 and again in 2019. The reduction in the draft, although borne of catastrophic circumstances, dovetails nicely with MLB’s pre-COVID plan to eliminate affiliations with 40 to 42 of the 160 minor league teams outside of spring training complexes.
If you’re of the mind that more baseball is better than less, and that young athletes should be encouraged to choose baseball over other sports, this is a terrible development. In essence, MLB is outsourcing player development for all but the top tier of talent onto colleges and junior colleges. (This is great news for college baseball programs, at least the ones that survive the upcoming decimation of athletic department budgets.) MLB is also telling a number of amateurs, some of whom may be late bloomers that develop into MLB-worthy players, that they should seek employment outside of baseball.
How much do clubs save under a five-round draft? In terms of reduced draft pools, roughly $1,000,000 per team. The actual amount saved might be double that, since teams could sign late-round picks for up to $125,000 without counting against the pool. So, less than the salary of Jeff Mathis or Joely Rodriguez, although any savings are magnified under the present circumstances and could directly impact existing employment within some clubs.
In the long run, I actually like the idea of a shorter draft, say 20 rounds or even ten, if teams have a reasonable budget for signing undrafted players.
The Draft, Mock Version (Note: all the links in this section are subscription-only.)
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel published his first mock draft, sending Tennessee lefty Garrett Crochet to the Rangers with the 14th pick. Coincidentally, when I pretended to be the Texas GM in the ProspectsLive.com draft, I intended to pick Crochet if the far more polished lefty Reid Detmers hadn’t fallen into my lap. (McDaniels has Detmers 11th, and I’ve not seen a mock with him dropping any lower.) Even more coincidentally, McDaniels mentioned Texas as the earliest possible destination for Ohio State catcher Dillon Dingler, who I happily nabbed in the second round, 50th overall.
In Keith Law’s new mock for The Athletic, the Rangers picked high school OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, who greatly intrigued me but would have been my selection only if Crochet, catcher Patrick Bailey and 1-2 others had already been picked. Law has Oakland selecting Dingler 26th overall.
The latest Baseball America mock also has the Rangers picking Crochet. I think BA had college catcher Patrick Bailey to Texas in its previous mock.
This year, compensation for unsigned picks extends to the third round. In a separate article, McDaniels suggests that some cash-strapped teams may aim for cost savings even beyond those already locked in by offering cut-rate bonuses to their picks. If the players sign, the teams save some money. If they don’t, the teams don’t spend a dime and book compensation picks for 2021.
2020 The Texas League canceled its All-Star game, as have the AA Eastern League and low-A Midwest League.
As for the regular minor league season, we’re one-fifth through the schedule but no closer to actual games. I’d written a paragraph about the how, unlike MLB, the minors couldn’t subsist on fan-free games, but then I found a quote from MiLB Senior Director of Communications Jeff Lantz that sums the situation better: “We will not play in front of no fans. It’s a business-model issue, really. If they send the players to us, we have to have fans. Otherwise, everything is in the red. If we turn on the stadium lights for a game, it’s $5,000. If we don’t have any fans buying tickets and buying concessions, we don’t have a way to pay for those lights.”
Per Baseball America, seven of 33 summer amateur circuits they track have already called off 2020, including the Cape Cod League. Numerous others have announced delays. The independent professional American Association postponed its season until July. Winnipeg owner Sam Katz is more blunt: “The bottom line is there’s a strong possibility that there will not be a season.”
In the last week, the owner of the short-season Hudson Valley Renegades and the bus driver for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans have died from COVID-19.
Korea ESPN acquired rights to the Korea Baseball Organization, which began on Tuesday. Live games begin between midnight and 4:30 AM CDT, and the network will rebroadcast them at more palatable hours. Mykbostats.com is an invaluable resource for following the league and foreign-born players. Korea’s ten teams include several ex-Rangers:
LHP Chad Bell (Hanwha) – Hanwha was 58-86 last year but don’t blame Bell, who posted a 3.50 ERA in 177 innings and didn’t allow a run in five of his final eight starts. Texas drafted Bell in 2009’s 14th round. After eight years in the organization, he became a Tiger in exchange for catcher Bobby Wilson and pitched 69 innings for Detroit across the next two seasons.
RHP Jake Brigham (Kiwoom) – Like Bell, Brigham was traded for a catcher after many years in Texas’s minors and reached MLB with a different club. Drafted in 2006’s 6th round, Brigham departed in exchange for Giovanny Soto and threw 16 innings for Atlanta in 2015. He’s beginning his fourth season in a Korean rotation after one in Japan. Brigham opened his season with 3.1 scoreless innings.
OF Jared Hoying (Hanwha) – Hoying played 512 games for AAA Round Rock and 75 for the Rangers during 2013-2017. He’s clubbed 48 homers and reached at a nifty .355 clip the past two seasons in Korea.
LHP Eric Jokisch (Kiwoom) – As you undoubtedly recall, Jokisch spent the last two months of the 2016 minor league season with Round Rock.
RHP Adrian Sampson (Lotte) – Sampson pitched the third-most innings for the Rangers last year. Texas granted his release last November to head overseas.
Since the postponed Opening Day of the MLB season, the per-capita rate of infection in the US is 110 times higher than South Korea. Lately, Texas alone is averaging more new cases per day than South Korea’s total for the last five weeks. So in that respect, I don’t see the KBO as a harbinger of baseball in the US. The countries are on very different paths.
Patterson Texas Rangers minor league 3B Shea Patterson is also a Kansas City Chief. Once an elite recruit, the U of Michigan quarterback became the last of 337 players at this year’s NFL combine to ink a deal.
The Rangers signed Patterson after drafting him in 2018’s 39th round. Patterson has appeared briefly at spring training and with the Round Rock Express but has yet to play in any official games, nor did he play in college. Texas retains his rights.
Clase Former Rangers reliever Emmanuel Clase was suspended 80 games for a positive test for the performance-enhancing substance Boldenone. As I understand it, 80 games means 80 honest-to-goodness games, so Clase’s suspension could stretch well into 2021.
Draft Last week, I participated in a mock draft staged by ProspectsLive.com. I was the Texas GM, picking for the Rangers in the first three rounds. To be honest, compared to most of the other faux GMs, I was ill-suited to the task. Historically, because of time constraints, I don’t usually gear up for the draft until two weeks before, at best. I tend to internet-scout the potential first-round picks for Texas, but beyond that, I’m just reading scouting reports from Baseball America so the early-round names ring a bell when they’re announced. In 2020, recent information does not exist. Most amateurs played only a handful of games, some none at all.
I didn’t even rank Detmers because I had no expectation of him being available at my spot. I don’t recall a mock draft listing him lower than 10th. Detmers isn’t the sexiest choice and will never lead a rotation, but perhaps nobody outside the absolute top tier offers a higher floor. Detmers’ fastball usually runs only in the low 90s but has good movement, and he can place it wherever he likes. He also delivers a monster curve and genuine change. He’s as polished as anyone on the board. He’ll pitch in the Majors, probably pretty well.
Others I considered: Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad, Tennessee LHP Garrett Crochet, and NC State catcher Patrick Bailey. Kjerstad vanished two picks before mine, and I would have taken Crochet if not for Detmers. Compared to Detmers, Crochet is a taller, missile-throwing lefty with more upside and but far more reliever risk, and a shoulder malady limited him to just one appearance and three innings.
2nd round, 50th overall – C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (6’3”, 210, Age 21.7)
I wasn’t necessarily committed to taking a catcher, but several strong candidates were available as my second pick approach. After spurning Bailey in the first, I was more inclined to take one. Catcher Austin Wells was picked before my slot, but given a choice I would have still would have selected Dingler. Wells has the better bat but isn’t assured of sticking behind the plate. He might become an effective corner outfielder. For my part, if I’m picking a catcher, I want a catcher. Dingler isn’t an elite defender but won’t fall down the defensive scale, and his aptitude with the bat is rising.
“But the Rangers already have Sam Huff!” Indeed they do. David Garcia, too. Huff is a highly regarded prospect who has yet to see his first action in AA. Nothing is assured. In a perfect world, both Huff and Dingler develop into frontline catchers. If so, I will take full responsibility as GM for having too many good catchers in the organization.
3rd round, 85th overall – RHP Markevian Hence, Pine Bluff, AR (6”1, 175, Age 17.9)
To my eye, Hence looks closer to 165. While he lacks a stout build and probably always will, he’s athletic with a clean, breezy delivery. Hence’s fastball reaches 96 and sits two ticks below. He throws a four-seamer, two-seamer, curve, slider and change. Nickname: Tink.
The real draft is still scheduled for early next month. Still to be determined are the number of rounds.
Dreams Deferred Back in February, I’d already booked my first mid-week in May:
Wednesday 7:30 AM: Head to Frisco after dropping off daughter at school Wednesday 11:05 AM: Watch Frisco play Midland Wednesday evening: Attend work seminar Thursday 11:00 AM: Join my Rangers On Deck podcast partners in the VOKAL studio Thursday 7:05 PM: Watch Frisco play Midland
