On Saturday, I provided a quick look at why Texas wasn’t scoring many runs despite the second-best hard-hit rate in MLB. Baseball Prospectus took a deeper look ($ link), mentioning 1) “failing to reach the top gear of the exit velo spectrum often enough,” which corresponds to my analysis about the lack of top-end velocity on homer-oriented launch angles, 2) a surplus of hard grounders, 3) a deficit of “soft” hits, balls unintentionally hit at a slow enough speed to become hit more frequently than those in a medium-velocity range, and 4) the dreaded “luck.”
Box Scores
AAA: Round Rock 3, at Durham (TAM) 2
Round Rock: 8 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 3 walks, 18 strikeouts
Record: 15-24, 8 GB
SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 SO, 86 P / 52 S, 4.37 ERA
RP Emiliano Teodo: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 6.61 ERA
RP Michel Otañez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.77 ERA
RF Aaron Zavala: 2-5, .288/.370/.423
2B Michael Helman: 2-4, HR (4), BB, SB (5), .205/.288/.348
LF Trevor Hauver: 2-4, BB, SB (2), .265/.473/.345
Round Rock won the final two games after losing the first four. Emiliano Teodo enjoyed his best 2026 outing by far. The sinker still missed the zone too often, but he gained five calls plus two misses on three swings. Likewise, Durham chased and missed three changes. Josh Stephan maintained his strong 2026 form. His swinging strike rate actually isn’t much higher than last year — 12.1% in 2026 vs. 11.2% in ’25 — but his strikeout rate has rocketed from 19% to 32%.
OF Aaron Zavala reach safely 13 times in 28 trips to the plate on the trip (.464). Round Rock hosts 20-17 Sacramento this week. 
AA: wet / cancelled
The game against NW Arkansas won’t be rescheduled. Frisco visits division-leading Midland this week. The Hounds took four of six in Frisco the first full week of the season. 
Hi-A: Hub City 3, Wilmington (WAS) 9
Hub City: 7 hits, 9 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 16-16, 5.5 GB
SP Dylan MacLean: 6 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 69 P / 52 S, 6.00 ERA
1B Rafe Perich: 2-4, HR (4), BB, .277/.358/.506
LF Maxton Martin: 1-3, 2 BB, .228/.310/.436
SS Yolfran Castillo: 2-5
Hub City was outscored by ten runs during the series but managed a split. Yesterday, AJ Russell pitched for Hub City because Hickory’s Saturday and Sunday games were cancelled by a clubhouse fire. Yesterday, he was joined by LHP Owen Proksch, IF Yolfran Castillo and OF Hector Osorio. Osorio was 0-for-5, while Proksch gave up three runs and six runners in two innings. I can make a case for Osorio staying, as he’s hitting .286/.409/.527 for Hickory after spending the entirety of 2025 at the same level. The others are likely headed back. Both clubs have conveniently nearby road trips this week: Hub City to Asheville and Hickory to Columbia.
Bowling Green unsurprisingly leads the division at 22-11. The Tampa-affiliated Hot Rods have five winning records and three league titles in the post-covid reconfigured Sally League. 
Lo-A: cancelled
Hickory is on the road this week, so hopefully the stadium will be functional by next Tuesday when Charleston visits.
Five Years Ago Yesterday
Only Round Rock played. In 2021, the AAA level had Wednesdays off while the other levels skipped Mondays. Brock Burke (1.1 IP, 5 R) pitched for the first time since 2019 because of shoulder surgery. Curtis Terry hit his fourth homer in five games.
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