Yesterday morning, I saw a social media post showing Texas with the second-best hard-hit rate in all of baseball. Again, second best.
I quote-posted it combined with my own research that the Rangers were 28th in batting average on these hard hits (.432, 44 points below average) and 27th in slugging (.814, 107 points below average). I received some feedback, some helpful, some less so. A good point is that hard-hit rate is overrated, subject to misinterpretation and certainly not a catch-all for determining hitting quality. At a team level, hard-hit rate actually correlates poorly to production so far in 2026. My instant thoughts were the direction of Texas’s contact, the spread of velocity and park factors.
After a little more research, I posted “The Rangers lean less airborne than grounded on hard hits but are close to the median, not a huge issue. They’re 27th in average and slugging on hard hits above 10 degrees [i.e., airborne]. My first thought was weak top-end velo, but they’re 12th in EV90 [90th-percentile exit velocity]. Not excessively pop-prone either. Need more study. GLF, maybe [Globe Life]?”
Then, Austin received an unexpectedly heavy rain shower that delayed my yardwork, so I kept digging. After a little more research: “The basic answer to Texas being a hard-hit low-result team is Globe Life. Yes, the Rangers are worse on hard hits than their opponents at home, but the park is massively pitcher-friendly. Texas’s road numbers are right at the league average.”
That still felt off, though. Yes, Globe Life suppresses hitting, but why the large difference in slugging between the Rangers and their opponents? I then narrowed the focus to hard hits at an angle of 20-44 degrees, where nearly all homers occur.
These results defy belief. Using only hard balls in play with homer-oriented angles, the Rangers are slugging over 700 points lower than the league average and over 400 worse the than 29th-ranked team. Worse still, opponents aren’t having any trouble getting results on these types of hits in Globe Life. I discovered this through both my own analysis of the raw data and by finessing Statcast’s search function, so I believe the stats are correct. What in the world is going on.
A partial answer: Texas’s overall top-end exit velocity is solid, but in this subset, it’s lacking. In this angle range, the average team hits 42% of hard balls in play at 95-99 MPH. Such balls do surprisingly poorly; only 10% have reached the seats in 2026. Unfortunately, Texas leads in this category at 61%. Texas’s average velocity on these balls is only 99. The opposition’s average is 103. That’s a huge difference.
Entering Saturday, Texas had only 23 balls in play at a 20-44 angle range and over 100 MPH off the bat. The average team had 37. Given that 47% of balls in play in this group become homers, that’s a lot of missed production.
That’s only part of the issue. On balls hit at 20-44 degrees and over 100 MPH, Texas also has the worst percentage of homers, just 22% vs. the league average of 47%. As to why so few of Texas’s genuinely hardest hits are leaving… I don’t know. I haven’t gotten that far yet. Possibly dumb luck.My joking response was for Texas to just hit the ball harder. Last night, Josh Jung and Justin Foscue hit balls over 100 MPH in the angle range of 20-44. You’ll never guess what happened.
Box Scores
AAA: Round Rock 5, at Durham (TAM) 3
Round Rock: 5 hits, 1 walks, 9strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 14-24, 8 GB
SP Ben Anderson: 1.2 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 49 P / 29 S, 9.00 ERA
RP Austin Bergner: IP, H, R, BB, SO, 0.00 ERA
RF Aaron Zavala: 1-3, HR (2), BB, .283/.368/.424
Bergner, Aidan Anderson, Robby Ahlstrom, Dane Acker and Mason Thompson combined for 7.1 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts. 
AA: Frisco 7, NW Arkansas (KAN) 8 (10)
Frisco: 10 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 16-16, 4 GB
SP Dylan MacLean: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 76 P / 50 S, 5.27 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-5, 2 HR (6), .300/.398/.511
1B Max Wagner: 3-4, 2B, .259/.333/.741
Dylan Dreiling homered not once, but twice, both the opposite way, bringing his total that direction to four of his six total. He’s already halfway to last year’s 12, but he’s hit only one double.
I mentioned Jorge Alfaro’s unusual presence in AA yesterday. Last night, he powered a three-run homer in the 10th for Northwest Arkansas. Frisco would score twice in the bottom half and place the tying run on second but could go no further. 
Hi-A: Hub City 4, Wilmington (WAS) 2
Hub City: 6 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts
Record: 16-15, 4 GB
SP Ismael Agreda: 5 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 79 P / 49 S, 5.33 ERA
RP AJ Russell: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Joey Danielson: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.75 ERA
C Malcolm Moore: 2-4, .259/.364/.400
1B Maxton Martin: 2-4, 2B, .224/.296/.439
Texas promoted AJ Russell to high-A, probably a one-off to keep him on his regular schedule since nearby Hickory’s weekend was cancelled, but he made a quick case for staying. Russell threw three perfect innings and fanned four. Oft-wild Ismael Agreda was on firmer ground, and Joey Danielson produced his tenth scoreless outing of 11 total.
Devin Fitz-Gerald led off the game with a homer.
Lo-A: cancelled
Hickory is off until Tuesday.Arizona
2B Josh Owens homered. DH Seong-Jun Kim was 2-3 with a double and three batted in.
Today’s Starters
AAA: Stephan
AA: Davalillo
Hi-A: McCarty
Lo-A: cancelled
Five Years Ago Yesterday
Lo-A OF Evan Carter was 3-4 with a walk, double and HBP. Mason Englert fanned five and allowed one run in three innings as Down East swept a six-game series at Kannapolis, which would turn out to be the worst team in a Texas-affiliated minor league during 2007-2025.