Greetings From…
Austin. Still in Austin. Work and my daughter’s upcoming state archery tournament have conspired to keep me homebound. I am hoping to compensate with a later trip, perhaps the Carolinas, perhaps Arizona later on.
Tables!
I’ve built tables containing a bunch of Statcast data for everyone who’s played this spring. See the ’26hitters’ and ‘26pitchers’ tabs in this set of sheets. Included are pitch results, chase rates (swings at out-of-zone pitches), contact rates in and out of zone, hard-hit and exit velocity info, ground/line/fly/pop info, and (for pitchers) average velocities for each pitch type. Also included are latest outings for pitchers and my original and updated thoughts on player performances and situations. For some stats, I have color codes indicating a performance in the top 25% (green) or bottom 25% (purple) of the league.
My intention is to maintain a similar list for AAA Round Rock during the season. I’ll also work on enhancing the visually appeal, though I can’t promise anything.
Obviously, the info isn’t to be taken too seriously. The quality of competition in Spring Training varies widely between games and innings, the environment strongly favors hitting, and players are often working on things rather than treating every pitch as career-defining.
Pitcher Notes
At present the Opening Day bullpen would appear to be manned by Tyler Alexander, just-signed Jalen Beeks, Robert Garcia, Jakob Junis, Chris Martin, Cole Winn, and two among Carter Baumler, Luis Curvelo, Josh Sborz, and the loser of the battle for fifth starter between Jacob Latz and Kumar Rocker.
Texas signed the 32-year-old lefty Beeks to a Major League deal. Beeks has league-average fastball velocity, but his money pitch is a changeup that missed 35% of swings and yielded minuscule results on contact in 2025. His overall strikeout rate is pretty bland, though. This addition was necessary, as the bullpen looked a little uncertain, particularly since the Rangers lack a sure-fire closer.
The moderately surprising deletion from the 40 to clear room for Beeks was reliever Alexis Diaz, signed just three months ago. Diaz’s formal outings have been dire, and I assume side sessions weren’t a source of optimism. Diaz cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. With three-plus years of MLB service, he’s in same boat as Dane Dunning last year, permitted to declare free agency but at the forfeiture of his million-dollar deal (plus performance bonuses, if he can rebound). Not a fortune, but since 29 other teams weren’t clamoring to absorb that contract, he’s better off staying put from a monetary standpoint.
Rule 5 selection Carter Baumler has yet to allow a run in 6.2 innings and has fanned six while walking two. He’s dealing a fastball averaging a shade under 96, an 85 curve and a few sliders around 89. The underlying data is solid, if not to the level of the basic stats. He’s throwing plenty of strikes but missing bats at a below-average rate (19% vs Cactus-average 26%), although the contact isn’t causing much damage. He’s reached a maximum of nine batters and 32 pitches in a single outing, and multi-inning mop-up relief could be his initial role if he makes the squad. At the moment, I think he does.
Josh Sborz also has a pleasant line: 7 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts spread across one-inning outings. Recall that last year on rehab, his fastball velocity was well below normal, his location was spotty, and results weren’t there, so I had the unfortunate duty of writing “he can’t pitch in Arlington” on a weekly basis.
Here’s Sborz’s average fastball and whiff rate during 2023-2026:
2023 (MLB): 96.9, 34%
2024 (MLB): 95.1, 28%
2025 (AAA): 91.7, 23%
2026 (ST): 93.7, 27%
So: better, but still not at the level of 2024, much less 2023. Sborz’s fastest pitch this spring is 94.8, below his average for ‘24. Sborz is here on a minor league deal, and I’m leaning toward some time in the minors to see if he can further reduce the gap between his present and former selves. He has been out of options for ages, so he can’t be an up-and-down reliever, at least not in the traditional sense.
Both Sborz and NRI Ryan Brasier pitched three times in the last five days, unusual for Spring Training. Brasier has righted the ship after veering well off course early (1.1 IP, 6 R) but has fanned just two in six scoreless March innings. He’s one of those Article XX(b) free agents with a quickly approaching opt-out date, although he could hang around for at least a while as a minor leaguer if persuaded.
Cole Winn’s had a pretty good spring, getting a ton of chases (if only a half-ton of misses) with a five-pitch mix. My late-February spreadsheet comment was “Out of options, probably on unless terrible spring, Rangers need him.” During 2022-2024, when he was either giving up eight runs per nine innings in AAA or recovering from injury, the Rangers were exceedingly patient and protective of his 40 spot That’s a compliment, not a criticism. In nearly every outing, he’d string together at least an inning’s worth of hints at a favorable future if he could just straighten himself out.
Luis Curvelo is the rare reliever in the system with both options and more than a few minutes of MLB experience. Unfortunately, that means his fate isn’t really in his own hands. The front office might decide he’s one of the top eight and keep him. They might also decide he’s one of the top eight but option him anyway to give someone else a chance. Unfair, but such is life. Regardless, with continued strong outings he’ll force the issue.
Waiver-pickup Michel Otanez showed why he was claimed and why he was designated in the first place. His staccato delivery is fun to watch and probably disconcerting to hitters, but results were wildly inconsistent. He’s been optioned, and I wouldn’t put rent/mortgage money on him maintaining a 40 spot through early April. I do hope I get to see him in Round Rock, though.
Gavin Collyer’s average fastball velocity of 97.8 is the highest in the system this spring. He’s fanned eight in 7.2 innings but also walked or hit five. At present his strike rate is a respectable 63%, but until recently it was under 60%, a level at which innings are under constant threat of unraveling. He’d have a better chance as the final piece of a bullpen with no other questions, but that’s not the situation. He is, however, putting himself in a position to be among the earliest call-ups.
Peyton Gray’s fastest spring four-seamer of 94.3 is 0.8 below Collyer’s slowest, but he’s raised his profile as much as anyone. Gray was unscored upon until Monday and has struck out 14 in 8.2 innings while walking none. Nearly half of his pitches have been changeups, and more than half (56%) of opposing swings against them have drawn air. (The league miss rate on changes is 33%.) Gray is 30, originally an undrafted Rockie in 2018, then a Royal, then a Red (but injured) after two years of indy ball, and finally a Ranger as of the previous January.
Marc Church and Emiliano Teodo are still recovering from last season’s injuries. Church made one appearance and was promptly optioned.
40-newcomer Leandro Lopez had no realistic chance of making the squad, but if he’d been made available and claimed in the Rule 5 draft and pitched this well for some other team, he’d be making that squad, and we’d all be ill. Lopez has struck out 10 with one walk and one HBP in 4.1 innings. Among Rangers with at least 50 spring pitches, Lopez’s 44% whiff rate is highest, and his repertoire has expanded to six pitches. I expect he’ll return to Frisco and continue to develop as a starter.
NRIs with MLB experience aside from Sborz and Brasier include Austin Gomber, Patrick Murphy and Cal Quantrill. Murphy hasn’t appeared in a real game in over three weeks. Neither has Quantrill, who received a little attention as a potential fifth-starter fallback because his name is Cal Quantrill, but he hasn’t slowed his precipitous downhill course this spring. His velocity remains okay, but anything in the zone tends to head the opposite direction in a hurry. Gomber has been better, if not exactly encouraging. Beyond the loser of the Rocker/Latz battle, ranking Texas’s starting depth isn’t a fun task.
Hitter Notes
Joc Pederson has an ugly line (.172/.314/.172) but looks better under the hood: 58% hard hit, 58% lined or flown, decent chase and contact rates, patient but not passive. That buys some time for the slash stats to (hopefully) catch up to the underlying data, but not an eternity.
Evan Carter is 0-for-11 against lefties this spring, but the rest is mostly favorable: three walks, just one strikeout, three hard hits out of seven in play, just one swinging strike. Ultimately, like Pederson, only the production will matter, but at the least he’s in a much better position than at this time last year.
Aaron Zavala is enjoying the best spring among minor leaguers, hitting .480/.536/.800 with a triple and two homers in 28 trips to the plate. That’s fantastic, but he’s also chasing and missing far more than average, and he’s struck out in more than one-third of his appearances. It’s an issue he’s been fighting since elbow surgery preceding the 2023 season. He’s somehow batting .800 and slugging 1.333 when he puts the ball in play. That won’t last, but regardless, he’s entering the season pointed the right direction.
Alejandro Osuna is hitting .320/.433/.320. Per usual, his contact rates are terrific, but he’s hitting nearly everything on the ground, thus the eight singles and zero extra-base hits. He appears behind Sam Haggerty and Andrew McCutcheon in the pecking order, so his job is to be first in line when a reinforcement is needed.
Departures
Texas released RHP Grant Cherry and 1B/RF Kleimir Lemos. The undrafted Cherry was signed out of Long Beach State and threw primarily in long relief for low-A Hickory. The 20-year-old Lemos batted .264/.305/.428 at the complex last summer and played a few games for Hickory late.
Upcoming
Analysis of initial minor league rosters, the annual Daily Report Primer, and actual game reports because Round Rock opens the season in just nine days.
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