Day One Draft Results
1/30. C Malcolm Moore, Stanford, Age 21 (sophomore), 6’2″, 216, bats left, throws right
Ranked #31 draft prospect by Baseball America, #26 by MLB.com, #18 by Fangraphs
Most prognosticators had Moore as a Ranger in their final or near-final mocks, the other common choice being catcher Walker Janek, nabbed by the Astros two picks earlier. (I suppose we can follow both to see which organization “wins.”) He batted .311/.386/.564 in his freshman year and .255/.414/.553 as a sophomore. Moore improved his walk rate by 120% as a sophomore, and his contact also improved. Though his slugging percentage dropped, his isolated power actually improved. As I mentioned yesterday, Moore’s BABIP was a paltry .233, down from .339 the year before, but I haven’t come across anything to suggest he actually regressed at the plate. That seems to be mostly bad luck. Indeed, the bat drives much of his value, and he projects as someone with the skills to take advantage of his solid power. Moore employs a very wide-open stance with multiple rapid-fire foot taps as his loads. We’ll see how that evolves as a professional. Traditionally, the Rangers have left draftees to their own devices in their rookie seasons unless they requested assistance.
Defense is why he fell to the Rangers. Reviews are lukewarm, generally noting the potential of being an adequate backstop but suggesting uncertainty of outcome. Hopefully, a year of professional instruction during what would ordinarily be his college junior season aids that task. If catching ultimately doesn’t pan out, the question becomes whether the bat will play at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.
2/73. OF Dylan Dreiling, Tennessee, Age 21 (sophomore), 5,11″, 197, bats and throws left
Ranked #73 draft prospect by Baseball America, #72 by MLB.com, #83 by Fangraphs
After a promising freshman campaign, Dreiling truly blossomed as a sophomore, hitting .342/.459/.715 with 23 homers and 53 walks in 71 games. Notably, he played in a platoon role in 2023 (only 16 at-bats against lefties, no hits) but batted far better this season. Performing in critical moments on big stages won’t be an issue. He was named the College World Series MVP and homered in all three games of the finals (video of 1, 2, and 3). He has decent speed but didn’t take advantage of it on the bases. Texas didn’t draft him for his glove or arm. 69 of his 71 appearances this season were in left field, and reviews are subpar. He projects as an all-around average LF if he reaches his potential.
Here’s the placements of everyone I mentioned yesterday:
18. Tampa Bay — SS Theodore Gillen
23. LA Dodgers — SS Kellon Lindsay
28. Houston — C Walker Janek
30. Texas — C Malcolm Moore
39. Washington — C Caleb Lomavita
40. Oakland — 3B Tommy White
51. Cincinnati — SS Tyson Lewis
56. Miami — SS Carter Johnson
Unpicked — RHP Dax Whitney
Unpicked — RHP William Schmidt (pulled name from draft to commit to LSU)
Buy or Sell?
Strange for an under-.500 club to be playing in what felt like a playoff atmosphere this weekend. For a while, Texas has been in a position of needing to win at least 60% of their games, probably more, in order to have a shot at the postseason. A 4-2 record on the road last week was pretty much a requirement, and the Rangers succeeded. Following yesterday’s win, I mentioned on social media that a .600 winning percentage would result in 86 wins, and .667 would mean 90. A win total in that range guarantees nothing but puts Texas in the conversation. Many responded positively, while others felt the hill too steep, and the Rangers would be better served by jettisoning tradable players.
On the one hand, 2023 is irrelevant in this context. The Rangers aren’t going to win any extra games by wearing gold-trimmed unis or flashing their rings at the opposition. On the other, this club was built to contend this season. Langford (and Carter) aside, it’s a mature, expensive squad. I think they deserve a chance, with the caveat that the chance involves a deluge of “now or never” games. That means something like a 5-2 record in the upcoming homestand against Baltimore and the White Sox. A negative record in that span probably signals the end, and Texas would have six days to engineer any deals.
Box Scores
AAA: wet
Reno says “postponed,” Round Rock says “canceled.” The teams don’t meet again, so I’m going with the latter. Owen White was spared the horror of starting twice in Reno.
AA: Frisco 7, NW Arkansas (KAN) 6
Frisco: 9 hits, 9 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 11-7, 1.5 GB, 55-32 overall
SP Dane Dunning: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 18 P / 13 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Tyler Owens: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.59 ERA
DH Liam Hicks: 2-5, .263/.365/.356
SS Max Acosta: 2-4, BB, 2 SB (16), .262/.325/.373
1B Josh Hatcher: 1-3, 2 BB, .287/.330/.419
C Cooper Johnson: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, .246/.349/.477
With one out in a tied bottom of the 9th, Max Acosta singled and stole second. NWA chose to walk Josh Hatcher despite an 0-1 count to set up a force and/or double play against Cooper Johnson. Johnson has the better OBP and slugging percentage, but the tactic is defensible under the circumstances. Johnson smacked a high fly that 2022 9th-overall selection Gavin Cross might have reached had he not misjudged its carry. The ball eluded Cross and bounced off the track for a game-winning double.
Hi-A: Hickory 4, @ Bowling Green (TAM) 7
Hickory: 7 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 10-11, 3.5 GB, 38-49 overall
SP Aidan Curry: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 74 P / 49 S, 7.34 ERA
RP Jackson Kelley: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2.81 ERA
RP Gavin Collyer: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.09 ERA
DH Cam Cauley: 1-5, HR (6), .242/.292/.408
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-5, HR (5), .200/.235/.446
Ouch. In the 11th, Gleider Figuereo hit a two-run homer, but Bowling Green responded with a one-out run-scoring single and a game-ending grand slam from Brock Jones off Michael Brewer.
Lo-A: Down East 1, Salem (BOS) 2
Down East: 6 hits, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 8-12, 7.5 GB, 43-42 overall
SP Kolton Curtis: 4 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 58 P / 40 S, 3.10 ERA
RP Willian Bormie: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 3.53 ERA
SS Chandler Pollard: 2-3, 3B, .234/.313/.287
A couple of early solo homers would suffice for Salem. Down East had two runners after the 4th, both of whom were caught stealing.
Today’s Starters
No games until Friday.
Five Years Ago Yesterday
The Pacific Coast League exceeded the previous year’s homer total with roughly 48 games remaining on each team’s schedule. AAA was using the MLB ball for the first time instead of one specially manufactured for the minors. Folks had always speculated the MLB ball was livelier, and folks were right.