Draft Preview
After six seasons with a first pick in the 2-15 range, the Rangers will watch 29 other clubs make a selection before them. Such is the cost of a World Series championship. As such, Iâll confess that my draft preview is minimally informed by personal observations, but I greatly enjoy reviewing potential picks for future reference, so Iâve prepared summaries of anyone who has appeared as a Texas pick in mock drafts from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, the Athletic, ESPN, or Fangraphs.
C Malcolm Moore, Stanford
Athletic mock 3.0 (Keith Law) (italics = most recent)
ESPN mock 3.0 (Kiley McDaniel)
Baseball America mock 5.0, 4.0
MLB.com mock 16 May (Jim Callis)
Almost everyone had Texas picking this draft-eligible sophomore a week ago; Baseball American and both MLB Pipeline writers have since decided on a different catcher. Moore batted .255/.414/.553 in 2024 including 16 homers and more walks than strikeouts but also a .233 average on balls in play (excluding homers). The experts believe back luck played a major role in that disturbingly low figure, as the underlying metrics were sound.
Reports on his defense are mixed, none especially favorable. My strong preference (and itâs truly just a preference, not backed by analysis) is for near-certainty that a drafted catcher can stick behind the plate; otherwise, Iâm thinking mostly on the bat.
C Walker Janek, San Houston
Baseball America mock 7.0, 6.0 (Carlos Collazo)
MLB.com mock 14 July, 4 July (Jonathan Mayo), 14 July, 11 July, 20 June (Callis)
Hereâs your defensive catcher, if you like, although even his more positive reviews note improvement needed on the receiving side to match the terrific arm. Still, he would appear to be a lock at the position. Hitting reviews are slightly muted compared to Moore; there is hope of average contact and power in the Majors. He seems someone with a strong likelihood of panning out as at least a backup.
C Caleb Lomavita, California
Baseball America mock 3.0
Most publications have Lomavita selected before Texasâs #30 pick. Heâs gotten away with swing-happiness in college because of his contact skill and growing power, but the worry is pro pitchers will take advantage of his approach. Defensive reviews indicate heâs still growing into the position but should be no worse that average.
SS Kellon Lindsay, Hardee HS, Wauchula, FL
Athletic mock 2.0
Baseball America mock 1.0
MLB.com mock 27 June (Callis)
Early mock drafts linked the Rangers to several high school shortstops, later shifting en masse to college backstops. The Rangers havenât led off with a youngster since 2018, but they also havenât picked in this range since 2017. Defensive reviews vary, with some suggesting above-average potential, some projecting a move to center to take advantage of his superior speed. He lacks pop but in an ideal world would develop into a leadoff hitter.
SS Carter Johnson, Oxford HS, Oxford, AL
ESPN mock 1.0
SS Theodore Gillen, Westlake HS, West Lake Hills, TX
Baseball America mock 2.0
SS Tyson Lewis, Millard West HS, Omaha, NE
Athletic mock 1.0
Three more young shortstops. Johnsonâs reviews indicate a bat-first prospect who will likely move to second or third down the line. Gillenâs bat draws raves, but fallout from a 2022 shoulder surgery makes shortstop problematic, although his other skills point to a future at second. Still, Fangraphs rates him the draftâs top high school talent. Lewis has good speed on a quality frame. Hitting reviews arenât as glowing as Gillen but still solid, and like the others, sticking at short isnât a great bet.
3B Tommy White, LSU
ESPN mock 2.0
Batted .355/.419/.704 with 75 homers across three seasons. He has terrific power, obviously, but isnât an all-or-nothing hitter. White will have to tone down his tendency to chase as a pro. He could end up at first, but if he reaches his batting potential that wonât be an issue.
RHP William Schmidt Catholic HS, Baton Rouge, LA
MLB.com mock 30 May, 3 May (Mayo)
RHP Dax Whitney, Blackfoot HS, Blackfoot, ID
Fangraphs.com mock 1.0 (Eric Longenhagen)
We conclude with two high school pitchers. Texasâs fortune with young high-pick arms is limited, shall we say, but again, this is both a lower pick than in recent years and also a weaker-than-usual draft per the experts. Schmidt is a skinny 6â4â with a mid-90s fastball and massive curve. As is often the case, the change lags because he hasnât needed it. As for Whitney, my first reaction was âIdaho? Really?â, but reviews are promising. Along with a low-90s fastball, Whitney possesses two worthy breakers and more feel for a change than typical at his age. Longenhagen of Fangraphs should have another mock today.
Futures Game
Three Rangers made meaningful appearances in the 2024 Futures Game. Emiliano Teodo drew the start and tossed two perfect innings on just 14 pitches. He missed five bats (four sliders, one change*). His sinking fastball ranged from 95 to 99 with 17-18 inches of horizontal break, which is heroic. The slider topped at 89.
Winston Santos needed 24 pitches for his one inning, allowing an unearned run on a single and error plus a walk. He concluded his effort with a miss on a 97 MPH fastball. The heater ranged 97-98 with four misses, the slider 84-87 with one swinging strike, and he added one change* at 90.
Sebastian Walcott was 0-2 but provided the second-hardest ball in play of the game, a 106 MPH grounder that shortstop Aidan Miller couldn’t handle.
* Statcast often has trouble with “new” pitchers and lists Teodo’s and Santos’s lone pitches at 90 MPH as sinkers. They’re changes ,best as I can tell.
Box Scores
AAA: Round Rock 1, @ Reno (ARI) 2
Round Rock: 5 hits, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 8-9, 6 GB, 45-46 overall
SP Tom Brennan: 4 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 51 P / 33 S, 3.63 ERA
Leave it to the man more dependent on weak contact than anyone on the squad to handle Reno in the mountains for a while. Tim Brennan had missed one bat in each of his previous two starts. He totaled five yesterday. Chase Lee, rehabbing Austin Pruitt, and Grant Anderson spread around eight runners in five innings of scoreless relief, but the offense couldn’t break through. Lee has walked seven in seven innings since rejoining the Express, unusual for him.
AA: Frisco 9, NW Arkansas (KAN) 10
Frisco: 15 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 10-7, 2.5 GB, 54-32 overall
SP Dane Acker: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 2 SO, 81 P / 44 S, 3.88 ERA
CF Alejandro Osuna: 2-5, BB, .354/.415/.667
1B Abi Ortiz: 2-3, 2B, 2 BB, .209/.286/.333
LF Aaron Zavala: 3-4, BB, .216/.326/.303
2B Max Acosta: 4-5, 2B, 3B, .258/.320/.371
A seemingly bland, decisive defeat turned wild late. Frisco trailed 7-1 entering the bottom of the 8th but had the tying run on 1st when the game ended despite allowing another three runs. Unfortunately some messy defense in the top of the 9th added three insurance runs that the Naturals would end up needing.
Abimelec Ortiz has back-to-back multi-hit nights. To give an idea of how his season has gone, he had one multi-hit game the entire month of June, and one in May. July is off to a fine start, however. Maybe no one in the system wants the upcoming four days off less than him.
Hi-A: Hickory 4, @ Bowling Green (TAM) 8
Hickory: 10 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 10-10, 2.5 GB, 38-48 overall
SP Alejandro Rosario: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 SO, 80 P / 55 S, 3.95 ERA
3B Gleider Figuereo: 2-5, SB (1), .183/.222/.400
1B Quincy Scott: 2-3, 3B, 2 BB, SB (5), .209/.300/.277
Alejandro Rosario’s strikeout rate is higher in three high-A starts than his time in Down East (43% vs. 37%), although his walk rate at the higher level has declined from elite to average. Rosario had only thrown 11 pitches in the 5th and 80 for the night when removed, seemingly indicating a fairly firm limit on his workload. He hasn’t thrown more than 84 all season.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Salem (BOS) 5 (8)
Down East: 6 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 7-11, , 42-41 overall
SP Paul Bonzagni: 4 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 58 P / 34 S, 4.35 ERA
RP Josh Trentadue: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 4.14 ERA
CF Jojo Blackmon: 1-4, HR (4), .169/.245/.290
C Jesus Lopez: 1-3, BB, .254/.312/.373
Salem outscored Down East in extras (doubleheaders are scheduled for seven innings), propelled by an error and fielder’s choice that produced no out.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Salem (BOS) 0 (7) (NO-HITTER)
Down East: 6 hits, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 0 hits, 3 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 8-11, 7.5 GB, 43-41 overall
SP Izack Tiger: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 63 P / 43 S, 2.63 ERA
RP Adonis Villavicencio: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1.29 ERA
C Julian Brock: 2-3, .218/.296/.319
Izack Tiger and Adonis Villavicencio combined on a seven-inning no-hitter. They were making only their third and fourth career appearances in full-season ball, respectively. Both pitchers walked the first batter faced and then picked him off. Down East doesn’t broadcast on MiLB.tv, but the Rangers provided some video.
Today’s Starters
AAA: White
AA: TBA
Hi-A: Curry
Lo-A: TBA
Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas traded reliever Peter Fairbanks to Tampa Bay for IF/OF Nick Solak. Coming off elbow surgery, Fairbanks gained instant attention in Spring Training with a 100 MPH fastball, and he advanced from high-A to the Majors in a scant two months. At the time of the trade, he sported a 37% strikeout rate but a 5.45 ERA across all levels, as the contact batters managed to make tended to be noisy. Solak would make his MLB debut a month later after a .348/.386/.653 showing for AAA Nashville.