PLAYOFF PREVIEW: LOW-A CAROLINA LEAGUE SEMIFINALS
Hickory Crawdads (82-47) vs. Tampa Bay Rays-affiliated Charleston RiverDogs (73-59)
Season Run Differential: Hickory +201, Charleston +36
Last 20 Games: Hickory 16-4, Charleston 10-10
Season Series: Hickory 7-5 (all in first half)
How They Got Here
In the first half, Charleston was stuck at 24-25 before reeling off twelve straight wins including the first four of a critical six games against Hickory, who had led the division intermittently but never comfortably. The RiverDogs claimed the title with a 37-29 record despite a negative run differential. In the second half, Charleston won one fewer game but outscored the opposition by a respectable margin.
Hickory posted the best second-half in all of MiLB, and when considering run differential and deeper components of offense and pitching, I think they’re the best team in the minors, period. They’re also the best Texas minor league team I’ve covered in 20 years on the assignment. There’s not an ounce of luck in their record.
History
Hickory has been a Texas affiliate since 2009, all in low-A except for 2021-2024. Irrespective of level, 2026 is Hickory’s sixth postseason with the Rangers. The Crawdads won the South Atlantic title in 2015 while falling just short in 2019.
As you might guess, the Rays-aligned RiverDogs are always competitive, sometimes dominant. By my accounting, the 2021 version (82-38) is the best among over 800 minor league squads in a Texas-affiliated league since 2007. Charleston won the 2021-2023 titles, bookended with defeats of Down East.
Top 30 Prospects Per MLB.com
Hickory:
#5: IF Yolfran Castillo
#8: P/IF Seong-Jun Kim
#9: P/IF Josh Owens
#17: RHP Jacob Johnson
#23: OF Marco Argudin
#29: OF Paulino Santana
#30: RHP Mason McConaughey
Charleston:
#1: IF Grady Emerson (10th in MLB)
#5: IF Cooper Fleming (83rd in MLB)
#6: IF Taitn Gray
#13: IF Daniel Pierce (60-day IL)
#14: OF Slater de Brun
#19: IF Andreimi Antunez
#30: IF Dean Moss
Offense / Possible Position Players
C Sebastian Baquera / Noah Franklin / Josh Springer
1B Brandon Crabtree / Kaden Carpenter
2B Daniel Flames / Josh Owens
3B Curley Martha / Kolby Branch
SS Yolfran Castillo / Seong-Jun Kim
LF Paulino Santana / Jay McQueen / Carpenter
CF Marco Argudin / McQueen / Santana
RF Deward Tovar / Carpenter / McQueen
DH Carpenter / Tovar
I’ve listed a ridiculous number of players, but other than Crabtree and Castillo as near-fixtures at first and short, respectively, the lineup has been truly fluid of late. Manager Nick Janssen has plenty of defensive combinations and batting orders that are roughly optimal. For the season, Hickory’s offense has been solid, a little above average in all respects. They’ve improved in the second half despite the losses of Hector Osorio and Marcos Torres.
Crabtree hasn’t hit much, unfortunately, and Hickory might be better served with Kaden Carpenter at first, which also accommodates the crowd vying for the four outfield/DH spots. Third base has been lacking in offensive production since the departure of Angel Arredondo, but that doesn’t offer a clean solution. Strictly in terms of production, neither Owens nor Kim have made a case for usurping a spot in the lineup, but you might see one or both anyway. Hickory received a boost when Marco Argudin returned to action Saturday, but 1B Pablo Guerrero remains on the IL.
Every top-30 prospect on Charleston’s roster is a hitter, but the offense is bland at best. On the upside, their .252 average leads the league, and they have the most singles and fewest strikeouts. They’re also near the bottom in isolated power and combined walks and HBP. Charleston averages 2.1 steal attempts per game vs a league average of 2.4. De Brun (21 SB / 3 CS) and Palma (41 / 8) run most frequently.
The big name is SS Grady Emerson, 2026’s #2-overall pick, but he joined barely two weeks ago and hasn’t added much to the attack. Last year’s 37th-overall pick, IF Slater de Brun, hasn’t played much because of wrist issues but has a .444 OBP. Last year’s second-round pick, Cooper Fleming (.298/.379/.450) has been around all season and leads the squad with 11 homers. DH Taitn Gray, OF Angel Mateo and 1B Tom Poole have also hit well.
Pitching / Possible Rotation
SP1: RHP Evan Siary (3.30 ERA, .239/.287/.400 oppo, 6% BB+HBP, 23% SO)
SP2: RHP Moises Morales (3.13 ERA, .217/.278/.357, 8% BB+HBP, 26% SO)
I’ve written this earlier than usual because of work travel, so my rotation is just a guess. Both Siary and Morales would be on five days rest instead of the usual six; if I’m wrong, I expect they’d start Games 2 and (if needed) 3. Hickory has several options for a third starter: Connor O’Hara, Jacbo Johnson, Jacob LaFalaise, perhaps one of Owens and Kim. s
Hickory has the league’s best run prevention. Neither Siary nor Morales are flamethrowers, but Siary’s overall command and Morales’s slider in particular have proven too much for low-A hitters. Siary’s one weakness has been shocking homer-proneness against lefties; he’s allowed 12, and opponents are slugging .537.
Owens and Kim have been better on the mound than at the plate and could both be in line for an outing of two innings during the series. The Crawdads lack a set closer. Louis Marinano, JD McReynolds, Geury Rodriguez and Michael Trausch have all handled late innings lately. All are quite good, but only Marinaro has above-average control.
As for Charleston, their busiest starters haven’t been the most reliable. Down the list a little, Aidan Cremarosa and Jacob Kuhn would be good choices, but neither has rested enough to pitch the first game. That starter might be Luke Jackson (no, not that one), who has a 3.42 ERA and solid peripherals but never stretches beyond two innings. All are righties.
Lefty Yereny Teus leads the Dogs with seven saves. He’s struck out 80 (a 38% rate) and walked 22 in 54 innings. On the whole, Charleston’s pen appears competent but not exceptional.
Defense
Hickory’s defense is immaculate. No team converts more double play opportunities, turns more batted balls into outs, commits fewer errors or shuts down opposing runners as well.
Charleston rates a little below average in most respects.
Advantages
Hitting – Hickory
Pitching – Hickory
Defense – Hickory
Park Factor
In 2026, both parks have played nearly neutral, but Charleston is among the league’s least the homer-friendly while Hickory is quite generous.
Outlook
Charleston does have the advantage of playing two of three at home should the series extend that far, but Hickory is (in my opinion) the best team in the minors. Yes, momentum can disappear in an instant. The Crawdads could play 45-86 Delmarva and not be a mortal lock to win two of three. Still, they’re unquestionably more likely to advance.
Most Recent Texas-Affiliated Championship Teams
AAA: 1996 Oklahoma City 89ers
AA: 2022 Frisco RoughRiders
Hi-A: 2017 Down East Wood Ducks (co-champion)
Lo-A: 2015 Hickory Crawdads
Short-A: 2008 Spokane Indians (RIP)
Rookie: 2019 Rangers
Skip to content
tantamount to cordial