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Thanks again for following. I have no games to cover today, but I do have a special feature, plus some transactions:
Prospect Review
Following are my prospect assessments using MLB Pipeline’s pre-season top 30. I tend to be cautious in my assessments, especially with injured players and at the lower levels, because I’m working with limited data and observations. Your mileage may vary.
I have more players rated negatively than positively. That has always been the case and I expect always will. That isn’t a criticism of Texas’s farm (at least not in 2026), it’s the nature of the sport. Most prospects don’t reach their potential, the potential perceived by scouts and others, to be precise. Some players reach the summit, while most peak in the minors and are replaced in rankings by new talent. Actually, given that Texas was starting with its lowest-ranked system in many a year, and given how many prospects were on the shelf or awaiting rookie ball back in March, I’m pleased with the season’s progress, even though Baseball America recently ranked the Texas system worse than Houston (an unconscionable affront). The biggest frustration is the Teodo/Corniell/Santos/Davalillo quartet, but much of the news elsewhere is encouraging.
I’ve tried not to overdo contextual discussion of the drastic increase in offense at AA and below. In case you weren’t aware, run-scoring and most other offensive stats below AAA are at all-time highs in the modern era (1990-present). Just know that I’ve considered that context in my player reviews. Also, I’ve ignored how a potential lockout might affect current 40-man members and possible additions. I’ll deal with that down the road.
1. SS/3B Sebastian Walcott
Rating: Even
As long as a major injury has a history of full recovery, I’m disinclined to downgrade a sidelined player absent extraneous factors (already being on a downward trend, becoming “old” relative to competition, impending free agency or lack of options). Walcott has no such factors and has hit the cover off the ball since returning from brace surgery as a DH.
2. RHP Caden Scarborough
Even
Scarborough missed time as well, though not to a baseball-related injury. So far in 2026, his velocity appears to be down slightly compared to the end of last year, but he looks as effective and exciting as ever.
3. RHP AJ Russell
Even
Absent a ramp-up, Russell will toss only about 55 innings, a cautious workload given that his brace surgery was in June 2024. He leads all Rangers with a 36% K rate (min. 40 innings) and has a solid walk rate as well, although it’s climbed in high-A.
4. RHP Jose Corniell
Down
Did you know Corniell is on his last option? Perhaps he gets another, but regardess, time is short. 2024 was lost to surgery, 2025 was an encouraging recovery season culminating in his MLB debut. 2026 has been plagued by additional injuries, more walks, more hits, more runs.
5. RHP Winston Santos
Down slightly
To answer the question of whether he’s ready: Marco Gonzales. As in, Gonzales is a Ranger and Santos isn’t. Like Corniell, injuries have hampered his development, and the increased offensive environment affected him badly in Frisco. He’s missing a ton of bats, though. Probably a reliever in the long run, possibly a good one.
6. SS/RHP Josh Owens
Up slightly
Two-way players are rare, and at some point, Owens probably ceases one of his duties. Not in 2027, though. At the complex, he ably controlled a 96 FB / 85 SL combo and showed good exit velocities at the plate. Strikeouts (as a batter) are a concern.
7. RHP David Davalillo
Down slightly
Davalillo became one of Texas’s best pitching prospects over the past year but suffered a sudden loss of control upon promotion to Round Rock. After three weeks off, he’s resumed a slightly bumpy path back to AA. A Teodo or Collyer can sometimes get by with diminished control, but not Davalillo.
8. SS/3B Yolfran Castillo
Up
His improvement at the plate isn’t just a byproduct of higher offense throughout the minors. He’s grown into some power and shored up last year’s relative weakness in walks and strikeouts. He’s not Walcott, and he won’t be starting 2027 at Frisco, but he’s on a steady ascent.
9. OF/3B Elian Rosario
Even
Rosario is described as a “former infielder” by Baseball America but spent nearly all the season at third and didn’t play outfield. He batted .276/.398/.449 in 33 games with five homers, 29 combined BB+HBP and 22 strikeouts.
10. OF Dylan Dreiling
Up slightly
Dreiling hit slightly above league-average in 2025 but honestly didn’t look it. He’s improved in ’26, getting much better results on contact. I have mixed feelings about his future in center, but he’s comfortably put himself in position for the next level.
11. RHP Izack Tiger
Down slightly
I will be inclined to upgrade to even with just one better outing. Coming off elbow surgery, Tiger has shown good control and is missing plenty of bats. On the downside, that “good” control has included a bunch of straight-ish fastballs plus breakers crossing the plate in the mid-thigh-to-belt region, and batters are absolutely teeing off (.556 avg. / 1.556 slug on contact in hi-A).
12. LHP Dalton Pence
Up slightly
I saw a lesser performance in person last week, but I also saw someone who might stick at starting if his entire arsenal is in sync. If he can reach the Majors as a middle reliever, that’s fine, too. Despite my rating, a #12 ranking by MLB Pipeline was already generous, and I wouldn’t place him higher.
13. SS/OF/2B Cam Cauley
Up slightly
Cauley needed a little time to acclimate to AAA, but once he did, he put himself atop the call-up list, and now you’re watching him on tv (well, BZZR). The statcast data in AAA and the Majors doesn’t fully support his current .250/.341/.444 line, but he offers more than enough in others respects to carve out a useful utility role.
14. RHP Leandro Lopez
Down
An expanded repertoire and improved control warranted a 40 addition over the winter, but that control abandoned him in 2026, and now he’s dealing with shoulder fatigue. Had he not been added, he wouldn’t be under consideration now, barring a quick return and significant improvement. There’s time, but his history of unalloyed success is brief, and I’m a little worried.
15. SS/RHP Seong-Jun Kim
Up slightly
See Owens, Josh. Kim didn’t throw as hard as Owens (92.3 FB in limited data availability) but stung the ball with more consistency at the plate. He struck out at a 32% rate.
16. OF/2B Elorky Rodriguez
Down slightly
He tailed off badly from a strong DSL intro, and I assume he’ll be repeating at the complex to begin 2027. The good news is Rodriguez’s exit velocities were quite promising. Unfortunately, all the hardest hits were grounders, and all the flies were in a lower-90s tier that tends to land in a glove.
17. RHP Emiliano Teodo
Down slightly
Teodo did reach the Majors, although he wasn’t really ready and let everyone know it in his one appearance. He’s been dominant at times, but his fastball control has often been atrocious. A late-inning reliever lurks in there somewhere, and I am begging for consistency down the stretch.
18. C Malcolm Moore
Up
There was a real chance the former first-rounder could have fallen off the board in 2026. Reviews of 2025 were downright ugly. Instead, Moore had a terrific start and jumped to AA, where he’s displayed similar power while losing some ground in terms of contact. The promotion was quick, if not rushed, so an adjustment period is understandable.
19. 3B Jack Wheeler
Even
19 for most of the season, last year’s 6th-rounder hit .302/.356/.531 with 22 XBH in 48 games mostly at third. He didn’t walk much, and his exits weren’t at the level of any other Baby Rangers I’ve covered.
20. RHP Mason McConnaughey
Even
He hasn’t pitched much, so I’m loathe to offer much. Statcast data indicates a repertoire equal to his brief time at Nebraska: low-90s heaters (touching 95), mid-80s change, low-80s slider.
21. OF Paxton Kling
Even
Kling was hitting .261/.400/.404 when he suffered a wrist-breaking HBP in mid-June. He’d very likely be in Frisco by now otherwise, but he strikes me as someone who’ll be assigned to Frisco next April no matter how the rest of 2026 transpires (assuming he’s healthy, of course).
22. OF Paulino Santana
Even
The 19-year-old had added some pop and is hitting line drives and walking frequently. He’s picked up extra CF duty since Hector Osorio’s departure, but his overall usage still portends a left-field role, so with that in mind, think about what you require from the bat.
23. LHP Josh Trentadue
Down slightly
As a starter, Trentadue’s control was actually okay, but the minors-wide increased offense ate him alive. Now in relief outings of mixed length, his control is worse but he’s missing many more bats and avoiding hard contact. He could reach the Majors but needs to find a path.
24. OF Maxton Martin
Down
Martin is bat-first but has lost 50 points of OBP, and while he’ll hit more homers than last year, the increase doesn’t quite keep pace with the minors-wide explosion in long balls.
25. RHP Carter Baumler
Down slightly
Remember him? Baumler has an MLB-worthy repertoire but has been sidelined by a rotator cuff strain. Whatever his recovery and outlook, keeping him in the organization is going to be a chore, as he’s missed so much time that the Rule 5 requirements will extend into next season.
26. LHP Ben Abeldt
Down slightly
Lefties who dared to swing the bat were helpless (.143/.314/.143), but on the whole the 22-year-old didn’t stand out in a league populated mostly with teenagers. He missed the entirety of 2025 because of elbow surgery, so let’s wait for 2027 before judging too harshly.
27. RHP Jacob Johnson
Up slightly
At the complex, the 20-year-old walked too many but fanned 31% of opponents with a 95-96 fastball, 87-ish change and 83 slider. A promising debut. He’s headed to Hickory to make me drop the “slightly’ from my rating.
28. RHP Ismael Agreda
Down slightly
Agreda is fanning a career-best 30% of opposing hitters with a stupidly low contact rate of 64%, but he’s also walking or hitting a career-worst 17%. Maybe a big-league reliever, maybe a career that stalls with a 9.00 ERA in AA. His stuff demands a patient approach.
29. OF Hector Osorio
Up
Osorio always had strong on-base skills but in 2026 has increased his homers from four 21 in a similar number of games. Hickory was a conservative assignment to start the season, so I’m glad to see continued robust production in high-A.
30. OF Anthony Gutierrez
Down
Gutierrez’s top-line production and many under-the-hood stats have remained impossibly, annoyingly consistent despite a swing overhaul to produce more flies and presumably more power. His speed is the tool that just might carry him to the Majors, but he has to hit some. An ACL injury will limit his season to one plate appearance. While I don’t want to punish players for injuries, he was trending downward and really needed to be on the field.
Transactions
Up to Hickory: RHP Jacob Johnson, C Noah Franklin, IF Kolby Branch (2026 8th-rounder)
Up to Hub City RHP Luimy Munoz
Up to Round Rock: OF Orlando Martinez
Rehab in Frisco: IF Corey Seager
Released: pitchers Adrian Rodriguez (2019, 39th round) and Jake Jekielek (2024, 10th round), IF Santiago Espinal (recent FA addition to Round Rock)
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