Fangraphs published their Texas prospect list today, much earlier in the season than usual. This year’s addition was written by Brendan Gawlowski, an Acquaintance of The Report who spent several years scouting for the Bucs and patrolling the back fields in Surprise among other duties. I’d already written enough (too much) last night, so I’ll leave thoughts on the new list for later.
Jake Burger had a nice start to the season, but I noticed yesterday that his slash stats are all below his 2025 levels. His walk and strikeout rates are worse as well. He’s swinging the usual amount but less frequently at heart-of-zone pitches and more at out-of-zone offerings. 38% of pitches have resulted in a called or swinging strike, the highest in MLB. He’s hitting the ball very hard when he makes contact, but that’s being swamped by other issues. I guess the question is whether 2026 is a small sample to be judged cautiously or instead a continuation of 2025 to be judged as a whole. (Note: Baseball Reference gives him an inoffensive 98 OPS+, but that’s a function of what I think is a cattywampus park adjustment that is grossly overstating Globe Life’s pitcher-friendliness.)
Meanwhile, Justin Foscue is doing what he does in AAA, swinging judiciously (albeit with few walks so far), making consistent and firm contact with results dampened by a slight excess of pops and grounders. Foscue is 27, his MLB results to date have been painful, and I’m not willing to say he’d be any better now. Hopefully so, because surely he’s better than that, but enough to hang around? Management’s actions over the years have always implied he’s never had a spot waiting for him, but at the same time, he’s never quite forced the issue.
I’m not sure where I’m going with this, to be honest, other than to wonder aloud how much time Burger will be given and who might replace him. (This could also be applied to Pederson, but that’s for a another day.)
Box Scores
AAA: Round Rock 11, at Oklahoma City (LAD) 12
Round Rock: 9 hits, 11 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 4-11, 6 GB
SP Austin Gomber: 1.1 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 8 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 41 P / 25 S, 16.39 ERA
RP Emiliano Teodo: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 5.40 ERA
1B Justin Foscue: 2-5, BB, .323/.373/.468
CF Michael Helman: 2-3, 2B, HR (1), 2 BB, .167/.255/.286
DH Cooper Johnson: 1-4, HR (), BB, .233/.324/.267
Austin Gomber’s three starts have totaled 8.1 innings, and not because he’s on a leash. His strikeout rate is 9%, and while he’s getting plenty of grounders, there’s just so much contact.
Michael Helman frequently pulling the ball into the air with force is a potentially useful Major Leaguer. Delete the words “with force” and he’s not. Helman became a pull artist in 2023, always ranking near the top of leaderboards in that category. Entering Sunday, a third of his balls hit into play were pulled and airborne, but not a single one was hit above 92 MPH. The results: one single in eight at-bats. Yesterday, Helman smacked a pitch to left center at 100 MPH for his first homer.
Marc Church is throwing strikes and getting misses. His opposing contact velocity is acceptable. He’s been fly prone, but more of those flies have been pops than the type to leave the yard. So how are opponents hitting .391/.500/.739 with four walks (and a hit batter) in 4.1 innings? First, his perfectly fine strike rate of 63% has veered between extremes of throwing strikes at will and being unable to find the zone. Second, his strikes have landed middle-middle about 60% more often than the average. At this early stage stage of the season, that’s literally just an extra four pitches, but they add up. Church has thrown 12 centered pitches. Opponents have swung at ten and hit six into play, resulting in three singles and a homer. A third reason might be bad luck, and I do expect improvement, but I’d be very reluctant to attribute his current results to luck. 
AA: Frisco 1, Midland (ATH) 5
Frisco: 2 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 5-4, 2 GB
SP David Davalillo: 5 IP, 8 H (1 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 78 P / 52 S, 1.74 ERA
Davalillo was unusually touchable yesterday. He didn’t allow more than seven hits in any 2025 appearance. He has two walks versus 14 strikeouts in his first 10.1 innings, so I’ve got no complaints. 
Hi-A: Hub City 6, Greenville (BOS) 5
Hub City: 7 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 4 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 3-5, 2.5 GB
SP DJ McCarty: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 61 P / 32 S, 5.40 ERA
RP Cole Stasio: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Joey Danielson: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
CF Paxton Kling: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, .261/.433/.435
1B Rafe Perich: 2-4, 3B, .100/.143/.200
C Cal Stark: 1-4, HR (1), .111/.200/.444
Joey Danielson has four perfect one-inning, one-strikeout appearances, all in the 9th and all with medium-to-high leverage. He spent several weeks in AA last year, albeit with problematic control, so I wouldn’t expect him to stay in Hub City too long. DJ McCarty is back from a short IL stint.
Lo-A: Hickory 7, at Kannapolis (CHW) 1
Hickory: 11 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 7-2, 2 G up
SP Jesus Lafalaise: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 69 P / 37 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Wily Villar: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA
1B Marcos Torres: 3-5, 2 3B, HR (1), .257/.333/.543
SS Yolfran Castillo: 2-5, 2B, SB (3), .212/.333/.303
LF Deward Tovar: 2-4, 2B, .250/.351/.469
27-year-old flamethrower Wily Villar has yet to walk a batter. His control ranged from mediocre to frightening in 2025, so even a 15-batter stretch without a walk is newsworthy.
I’d mentioned that Hickory was last in the league in homers (still true), but they’re third in combined doubles and triples with 20. Yolfran Castillo hit his third yesterday.
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