SP Adrian Houser: 5 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 9 SO, 77 P / 53 S, 3.60 ERA RP Luis Curvelo: 2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2.25 ERA CF Dustin Harris: 2-4, BB, SB (4) C Tucker Barnhart: 2-4, HR (1)
On an annoyingly chilly and windy night in Round Rock, Tucker Barnhart sent the brave crowd home happy with a walk-off homer off ex-Ranger Chase Lee. LF Trevor Hauver (1-4, BB) preceded by doubling in the gift-runner to tie the game at four. Barnhart offered some pop in the late ’10s but had only one homer in each of the past two seasons. He’s the call-up in Heim or Higgy are injured.
Adrian Houser allowed some deafening contact (eight of 11 balls over 101) but struck out nine. Half of his 91-95 MPH sinkers resulted in a whiff or call. Luis Curvelo relied almost entirely on sliders in two not-quite-scoreless innings; the runner on second in the 10th advanced home on a deep fly and groundout.
Evan Carter missed a third straight game. Per Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports, he was away on a personal matter. He’s in today’s lineup. I don’t know that I’ll be there myself, much as I’d like to see him in person, as it’s currently 45 degrees with winds 15+ from the north, and I am a big baby.
SP Mitch Bratt: 3.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 78 P / 50 S, 2.45 ERA RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Skylar Hales: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA DH Josh Jung: 1-3 SS Sebastian Walcott: 2-3, 2B, BB, SB (1) 1B Abimelec Ortiz: 2-4 RF Josh Hatcher: 2-4 2B Cam Cauley: 1-3, BB, SB (1)
Josh Jung singled in three trips to the plate as a DH. He’s expected to play the field today and rejoin the Rangers Tuesday.
Sebastian Walcott reached on a 101 MPH very opposite-field double, a lined single and a walk.
Mitch Bratt wasn’t walk-prone but definitely pitch-prone, as a lack of whiffs prolonged several plate appearances. Bratt was ultimately effective but didn’t miss a bat until the final batter of the 3rd. Still, he fanned four and has always maintained a healthy K rate.
Hi-A: Hub City 1, at Aberdeen (BAL) 3 Hub City: 4 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts Record: 1-1, tied for 1st
SP Jose Gonzalez: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 50 P / 37 S, 0.00 ERA LF Dylan Dreiling: 2-3, BB
Now 23, Jose Gonzalez signed at 17 out of Venezuela and has been slow to develop (covid didn’t help), but at this point he’s an actual prospect, if not top-30 worthy. He signed prior to July 2, 2019, leading me to believe he could become a free agent after the season if not protected, but I wouldn’t swear to that.
Dylan Dreiling reached three times. Hub City loaded the bases with none out in the 9th down three, but Julian Brock’s grounder scored one at the expense of two outs, and Casey Cook’s popout ended it.
SP Mason Molina: 4 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, 66 P / 43 S, 4.50 ERA RP Brock Porter: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Eric Loomis: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA LF Maxton Martin: 2-4, 2B, HR (1), BB 3B Rafe Perich: 3-5, HR (1) 1B Pablo Guerrero: 2-5 SS Chandler Pollard: 2-2, 2 HBP, 2 SB (2)
Brock Porter returned to full-season action for the first time in nearly a year. In 2024, Porter had a troubling spring and was pulled from the high-A rotation after three increasingly off-kilter starts. He resumed two months later at the complex and was again removed, for good, after five outings. He had walked or hit 33 of 101 batters. (I should say his spring of 2023 was worrisome too, but not in the same way. His control was adeqaute but his velocity had declined. I witnessed fastballs dipping all the way down to 89 during what might have been a dead-arm period. His regular season was erratic but promising, ad he justifyingly held a high prospect ranking heading into 2024.)
Porter struck out the side looking. He relied mostly on the fastball, mixing in a few sliders. I think the final strikeout was a change but couldn’t say for sure (on his last two strikeouts, the feed didn’t cut to the pitch until mid-delivery). I can’t say his control was great — he started the first two batters 3-1 and 2-0, and he hit the third batter — but it was no worse than the typical A-level pitcher. A step forward.
In his first start in the organization after being acquired for reliever Grant Anderson, Mason Molina surrendered an infield single and homer to start the game but then retired 12 of 13, eight via strikeout. Molina doesn’t throw especially hard but can move his fastball around. I don’t recall seeing a curve in Surprise, but it was particularly effective Saturday.
19-year-old Maxton Martin (2023, 11th round) hit a solo homer and drew a loaded walk for Hickory’s fifth and sixth runs.
The 19th-best hitting season belongs to Curtis Terry.
I’ve hinted at this over the years but will fully come clean: In March 2018, I’d given up on Curtis Terry. Drafted in 2015’s 13th round out of high school, Terry had spent two years in rookie ball and another at short-season Spokane with middling results. His power was developing, but with seven walks and 60 strikeouts in short-A, what would become of him in full-season ball. In Surprise, I saw him strike out weakly three times in one day against breaking stuff and sighed. Terry would in fact not receive an assignment to Hickory, instead heading to Spokane again, where he unexpectedly not only thrived but dominated, hitting .293/.362/.537 with 15 homers and 32 walks in 67 games.
The next spring, I saw him punch a tricky, high/tailing two-strike fastball firmly the opposite way for a single. I saw him connect on breakers in the zone and avoid swings at off-plate two-strike versions. He was a different man. Terry finally received a full-season assignment and hit so well that he joined high-A Down East in mid-June. His .537 slugging percentage and 36 doubles led the system. After missing 2020 along with everyone else, Terry skipped AA and hit well enough in Round Rock to briefly join a bad Rangers team late in 2021. I was very happy to have been wrong about him.
SP David Buchanan: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 78 P / 49 S, 1.93 ERA RP Emiliano Teodo: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Matt Festa: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Daniel Robert: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Dustin Harris: 3-5, SB (3) 1B Blaine Crim: 4-5, 2 2B 3B Cody Freeman: 3-5, 2B LF Kellen Strahm: 2-3, BB
Emiliano Teodo matched Tuesday’s effectiveness if not excitement. He escaped an inherited two-on, one-out situation in the 5th with two easy flies before tacking on some strikeouts in the 6th. The sinker topped at 98.3 and averaged 96.6, more than two tics below Monday. Teodo can throw as hard as almost anyone, but not always, it seems. I noticed the same in his Spring Breakout outing.
Dustin Harris hit a single at 109.7 MPH off the bat, a full three above his previous high in the regular season. Like last year, his hard-hit rate is nothing special in the early going, but at least he’s produced evidence of a higher ceiling. Blaine Crim hit three balls 100+ because he’s Blaine Crim.
Evan Carter missed his second straight night.
OF Sam Haggerty was placed on the Injured List. He’d been removed after running the bases late in Thursday’s contest.
SP Winston Santos: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 56 P / 36 S, 6.75 ERA RP Ryan Lobus: 1.1 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 6.75 ERA RP Travis MacGregor: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Alejandro Osuna: 1-4, BB, SB (1) RF Josh Hatcher: 3-4, SB (1) C Cooper Johnson: 1-3, HR (1), BB
Winston Santos was outstanding for two innings, but in the 3rd he confirmed my Daily Primer statement about single-inning pitch counts. Two called strikeouts, a seven-pitch walk, and two lengthy appearances resulting in hits pushed his count to 30, so he was removed. Before then, nearly half of opposing swings resulted in misses, but Corpus batters fouled off a bunch of pitches in the 3rd. Still, he fanned six of 13 batters (video), and maybe in a mid-season game he would’ve been given a shot at closing the inning.
Alejandro Osuna made a terrific running catch on the track with his back to the plate.
SS Sebastian Walcott was 1-5 with a hustling blooped double.
Hi-A: Hub City 4, at Aberdeen (BAL) 3 (12) Hub City: 10 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 9 walks, 15 strikeouts Record: 1-0, tied for 1st
SP David Davalillo: 3 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 45 P / 26 S, 0.00 ERA RP Paul Bonzagni: 3.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 3 BB, 6 SO, 2.45 ERA RP Anthony Susac: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Joey Danielson: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA DH Julian Brock: 2-5, BB RF Keith Jones II: 2-5
David Davilillo was a little wild but otherwise matched the form I saw in the Spring Breakout game, not allowing a hit or even much in the way of hard contact across three innings. The run scored on a walk, stolen base, error and sac fly. Last year, Davilillo put three runners on base via walks or hit batters only six times in 22 appearances.
Also like the Spring Breakout, Paul Bonzagni’s outing was more hectic. The homer was cheap, traveling perhaps 330 and clearing just to the left of the 310′ sign in the right field corner.
Joey Danielson, a highlight of my Surprise trip, worked out of a couple of jams to extend the game in the 9th and 10th innings. In the 9th, a bunt single and intentional walk loaded the bases with one out, but Danielson induced a pop and struck out the next batter on a nifty slider.
2024 top picks C Malcolm Moore, LF Dylan Dreiling and 2B Casey Cook all were 1-6. Moore didn’t have a fun night behind the dish, allowing a passed ball and throwing well wide of second for an error on an attempt to nab a runner. Aberdeen swiped five bases against him, but in reviewing the footage, I think I can safely place most or all of the blame on the pitchers for at least three of them. On two occasions, Moore didn’t even bother to throw.
Hub City’s first stolen base belongs to 1B Arturo Disla (1-3, BB), who I’ve decided is the largest position player in affiliated ball unless I see someone bigger (I have done no research). Disla took off against a napping pitcher and slid under the tag. Down a run in the 9th, the Spartanburgers scored on singles by Disla (who at that point was pulled for a pinch-runner), Keith Jones II and SS Esteban Mejia.
SP Caden Scarborough: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 53 P / 30 S, 3.00 ERA RP Nick Lockhart: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Dalton Pence: 2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 4.50 ERA CF Yeremi Cabrera: 1-3, 2 BB, 2 SB (2) C Ben Hartl: 2-3, 2 HBP 3B Rafe Perich: 1-4, 2B, BB
Hickory scored three in the 8th and 9th to reverse a late three-run deficit. Kannapolis was largely responsible for the first three, hitting two batters and committing a error that plated two. LF Maxton Martin’s double was the only hit. In the 9th, RF Marcos Torres led off with a triple. A single by CF Yeremi Cabrera, another hit batter, a Martin sac fly and 3B Rafe Perich double would follow.
Making his third professional start three days after his 20th birthday, 2023 6th-rounder Scarborough began by striking out the side (two looking, one swinging) with almost nothing but 95-96 MPH fastballs. After a five-pitch 2nd, Scarborough would suddenly lose the handle, walking three after a single to force in a run. He introduced more sliders as the evening progressed but wasn’t getting much action, mostly relying on a fastball that he could place near the inside and outside borders for success.
Unlike Bonzagni’s above, the homer by Lyle Miller-Green off Dalton Pence’s fifth professional pitch was not cheap. Pence, an above-slot 11th-rounder with a high-rising fastball, had to deal with a walk, double and couple of steals but avoided any further damage.
Not to diminish his accomplishments, but 2024 14th-round catcher Ben Hartl led something of a charmed life last summer, hitting .381/.481/.432 at low-A Down East and even getting some action and two hits with AAA Round Rock. He reached four times last night.
Surprise fave Perich performed to plan, seeing 24 pitches in his five trips to the plate and collecting a walk and opposite-field double.
SP Caleb Boushley: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 67 P / 44 S, 2.08 ERA RP Joe Barlow: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 16.20 ERA RP Dane Acker: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA 2B Justin Foscue: 1-4, 2B, BB RF Sam Haggerty: 2-6, SB (1)
A frustrating loss. Round Rock led 3-0 entering the 7th and held a one-run lead with two outs, two strikes and none on in the 9th. SS Alan Trejo threw a grounder into the dugout to put a Eliezer Alfonzo on second, and another errant throw by 3B Alex De Goti brought Alfonzo home. The teams traded runs in the 11th, but in the 12th, an error by 3B Cody Freeman (who had replaced De Goti) open the gates for three runs.
CF Dustin Harris (1-5) stole two bases.
Evan Carter had the night off.
Opening Day Part Two. The real Opening Day. After a week of nothing but AAA, all four teams play tonight. AA Frisco hosts Corpus Christi, and Winston Santos gets the ball. After various injuries, role changes and transactions in the system this spring, Santos is Texas’s best healthy MiLB rotation prospect.
David Davalillo will start the inaugural game for the Hub City Spartanburgers at Baltimore-affiliated Aberdeen. Jose Gonzalez and DJ McCarty will follow.
Caden Scarborough draws the assignment at White Sox-affiliated Kannapolis. Lefties Mason Molina and Angel Anazco fill out the weekend.
Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The eighth-best pitching team is the 2010 low-A Hickory Crawdads. A glance at the league statistical home page might have you wondering about my methodology: Hickory sits a mundane 6th place of 14 teams in runs allowed and 5th in ERA. But adjust for park factors (among them, 1.06 for runs, 1.10 for homers) and voila:
Runs: 4.4 per game, 8% better than average ERA-: 89 FIP-: 87 OPS+: 90 wRC+: 88
The staff was average at keeping the ball in the park but ranked first in both BB/HBP rate (8%) and strikeouts (23%). Check these guys out:
Neil Ramirez: 140 IP IP, 3.8 K/BB ratio Matt Thompson: 129 IP, 5.7 ratio Robbie Erlin: 114 IP, 7.4 ratio Joe Wieland: 89 IP, 4.7 ratio Robbie Ross: 94 IP, 3.1 ratio Jake Brigham: 83 IP, 2.8 ratio Chad Bell: 60 IP, 2.8 ratio Joe Ortiz: 42 IP, 11.8 ratio
All posted K/BB ratios superior to the league average, and all would reach the Majors but Thompson (who sadly succumbed to yip-like loss of control and would be out of baseball in two years). They were so amazing that infielder Matt West converted to relief and made the Majors as well. Despite sub-par offense and defense, Hickory finished 74-65, made the playoffs and took a superior Lakewood squad to a maximum three games in the league semifinals. The Crawdads scored only two runs (both on groundouts) and nearly had more errors (7) than hits (8) in the two losses.
SP Nolan Hoffman: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 40 P / 27 S, 9.82 ERA RP Cole Winn: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Jacob Latz: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Luis Curvelo: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 4.50 ERA 1B Blaine Crim: 3-4, 3B, HR (1), BB
Blaine Crim clubbed a walk-off homer with two out. As of this week, he’s spent more than half his professional career in AAA, batting .285/.385/.482 with 43 homers in 285 games. 2025 is his walk year. Crim bats right and throws right, his listed height is 5’10”, and he’s essentially a pure 1B/DH. Best as I can tell, the only MLB player fitting those criteria in the last 25 years is Andrew Vaughn of the White Sox, and even Chicago shoved Vaughn into the outfield in his early years. Extending to 5’11” brings in Christian Walker and Ty France, but every other 1B at least dabbles at other positions.
There’s an alternate universe in which Milwaukee picked Crim in the post-2023 Rule 5 draft instead of setting $34 million on fire (actually, they gave it to Rhys Hoskins), but he and we are in this one. Hopefully, Crim gets a shot at some point, or a paycheck overseas.
CF Evan Carter was 0-4 with two strikeouts.
Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The eight-best team offense belongs to the 2015 High Desert Mavericks.
Runs per game: 6.0, 10% above average OPS+: 108 wRC+: 109
High Desert played at Heritage Field in Adelanto, California, an especially bleak outpost in the Mojave Desert. Adelanto and neighboring Lancaster annually vied for the nation’s most hitter-friendly stadium. OF Lewis Brinson paced the squad with a line of .337/.416/.628 in 64 games, followed by OF Ryan Cordell at .311/.376/.528. Both would advance to Frisco. Hitting the most homers of their careers were OF Royce Bollinger, OF Zach Cone, OF Joe Jackson, IF Alex Burg and IF Tripp Martin. At the other end of the spectrum were Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who you might recall didn’t go yard until his fifth pro season in 2017, and 1B Ronald Guzman, who hit only nine homers and slugged .434. Brinson, Bolinger, Burg, Cordell, Chris Garia, IKF, Kevin Torres and Evan Van Hoosier all batted at least .300. High Desert scored ten or more runs 28 times and was shut out on only three occasions.
Yes, all these performances were absurdly boosted by the conditions, but even after heavy adjustments, the team and many players graded out well. Brinson, for example, had a 161 wRC+. 78-62 overall, High Desert advanced past Lancaster to the league semifinals but lost in five to Rancho Cucamonga (Cody Bellinger scored the walk-off winning run).
SP Dane Dunning: 2 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 4 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 61 P / 28 S, 13.50 ERA RP Matt Festa: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Emiliano Teodo: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA 2B Justin Foscue: 2-5, HR (1) RF Trevor Hauver: 1-4, HR (1) 3B Cody Freeman: 3-3, 2 HR (2)
I’m not going to see Emiliano Teodo down here much longer if he keeps pitching like last night. Toledo had no chance, missing on all four hacks at sliders and two of six sinkers. The Mud Hens couldn’t even afford to lay off the slider, as six of eight taken landed for called strikes. Technically, “only” two of his 14 sinkers reached 100 proper, but another six would round up to three digits on a tv screen. I have video.
If I had to nitpick, I noticed in real time that he began overthrowing to Jace Jung with two out in his second inning once he gained an 0-2 advantage. The next three pitches were errant, and Statcast would display them as his two hardest heaters and hardest slider of the night. But on a 3-2 count, Teodo gathered himself, buried Jung with a slider, and celebrated (it’s in the video).
Evan Carter had a bad night. Facing a lefty in his first four trips to the plate, Carter struck out twice, walked and softly lined out. A 4th-inning appearance against slider-heavy Carlos Pena was especially difficult. On the first two pitches, Carter immediately initiated a swing, tried to check and couldn’t, resulting in a miss and foul tip with his bat moving at quarter speed. After a foul and outside sinker, Carter again check-swung through a low-outside slider. He did later draw a walk against lefty Bailey Horn, who mostly worked inside and really didn’t know where he was aiming. In the 8th, he fanned on a check-swing through a fastball from ex-Rangers righty Tyler Owens. In the field, Carter made a swell sliding catch of a dying liner. In the 1st, he took a slightly looping route on a scorched liner over his head, but I don’t blame him. The outbound wind was ferocious last night but not so apparent at field level, so balls would suddenly shift course once reaching a decent height. Toledo in particular made an absolute mess of several pops and flies.
Cody Freeman will not forget his home AAA debut. His first homer was a seven-iron propelled by the wind to just clear the left-field wall. He next laced a sac fly, then crushed a no-doubter to the upper deck in left and singled sharply to right. Freeman had me, the most stolid baseball observer ever, murmuring “woah!” (or something maybe less polite) on multiple occasions. 2024 was Freeman’s best offensive year by a fair margin, and in the early going he’s showing it was no fluke.
Ideally, Dane Dunning would have made an immediate case for reinstatement on the 40. He did not. Dunning’s basic control was deficient, he didn’t miss many bats (even relative to his standards), and five of nine balls in play were at least 100 MPH. Supporting defense was poor, playing a role in three of the four runs, but the pitches were his.
Best as I can tell, Texas and Detroit were meeting in a minor league game for the first time since 2008, when both fielded squads in the low-A Midwest League. AAA has introduced very limited interleague play in 2025, mostly involving the Express for some reason.
Cody Freeman:
The lineup, plus someone who wanted a particular shot more than me, I guess:
Rangers Minor League History, 2007-2024
The 12th-best team during 2007-2024 is the 2012 Frisco Roughriders.
This wasn’t the flashiest statistical team ever created, just nicely above average in nearly all respects, finishing with the third-best offense and second-best run prevention in an eight-team league. Frisco presented a formidable primary infield of Chris McGuiness, Leury Garcia, Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt, who led the offense with a line of .288/.398/.579 and 28 homers in 95 games. He would be called up to the Rangers in early August, and Profar was gone by early September. Engel Beltre wasn’t the best hitter but collected 47 extra-base hits and 119 starts in center. The busiest starters were Barret Loux, Jake Brigham, Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm. By the playoffs, Wilfredo Boscan and Cody Buckel had joined the rotation. 29-year-old Ross Wolf was the short-relief specialist, aided by Ryan Rodebaugh. Frisco clinched a postseason berth by midseason with a division-winning record of 41-29.
In the playoffs, Frisco swept Houston-affiliated Corpus Christi but lost 3-1 in the finals to a solid Springfield Cardinals club featuring Oscar Taveras (RIP), Kolton Wong, Carlos Martinez, Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist.
* Estimated record based on runs scored and allowed ** Estimated record based on singles, homers, walks, etc., by gained by offense and allowed by pitching/defense
Every year, I publish a primer as a guide to my daily reports: how the minors are structured, how the game is played and managed, what I look for, what stats I follow and ignore. In recent years, it’s grown to well over 4,000 words split into two reports. I’ve shortened it some and present it here in full.
Winning? These are developmental leagues. Rosters aren’t constructed and games aren’t managed to win, at least not as a primary goal. Good prospects aren’t going to be benched if they perform poorly. Does the prospect quality of a system correlate to its performance in the minors? Not so much.
A big chunk of Texas’s #3 ranking last year was due to Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, neither of whom played in the minors last year (except briefly on rehab). Adrian Sampson and Sandro Fabian had more impact on the farm’s won-loss record than them. Some organizations emphasize winning more than others, but it’s a means (to fostering a winning culture, presumably), not an end. My concern isn’t about winning as much as excessive losing. In 2021, White Sox-affiliated Kannapolis lost its first ten, then 16 of the next 20, and were 32-78 (.290) heading into the season’s final couple of weeks. No thanks. The last truly terrible Texas-affiliated team was almost 20 years ago, when low-A Clinton and its extremely young pitching staff finished 45-94.
Starters Beginning in 2021, MiLB’s full-season league switched to a six-games-a-week schedule, which encourages but doesn’t compel a six-man rotation. At different levels, the Rangers might employ six starters or use five and put the Tuesday-Sunday starter on a tight leash on getaway day. Sometimes, it’s a bullpen day.
Regardless, the workhorse has disappeared. Compiling the stats of old for my new daily feature drove this home.
Top five in Texas MiLB innings, Age 25 and younger, 2007: 1. Andrew Walker, 167 2. Mike Ballard, 164 3. Eric Hurley, 162 4. Omar Poveda, 153 5. Armando Galarraga, 152
Top five in Texas MiLB innings, Age 25 and younger, 2024: 1. Mitch Bratt, 110 2. David Davalillo, 110 3. Winston Santos, 110 4. Nick Krauth, 107 5. Kohl Drake, 106
In 2024, the median length of a start by a Texas minor leaguer was 4.2 innings, which is actually higher than 2023. The organization had zero complete games. AAA starters aren’t necessarily working longer; in fact, the median length was shorter in AAA (4.1 IP) than AA and High-A (both 5.0).
Still, Texas does want starters to get their innings, so pitchers will often be allowed to press through situations that might get an MLB starter pulled. What will get a starter pulled early is excessive pitches. If the inning’s count has crept into the mid-20s with no end in sight, a reliever will be warming in earnest. Once it surpasses 30, the pitcher (especially if younger) could be yanked before facing another batter.
In the past, Texas’s AAA pitchers tended to pitch complete innings. I used to jokingly mock opposing managers who removed pitchers mid-inning just to get their steps in. Well, the joke’s on me, because Round Rock manager Doug Davis, who took charge last year, loves the mid-inning switch. Does he ever. Davis has been around a while, so he has leave to switch pitchers and create matchups more in line with MLB usage. Relievers Minor league relievers tend to pitch on a schedule rather than in situational roles. Even in AAA, nominally the final training ground for the Majors, relievers usually pitch on prescribed days.
Pitching on consecutive days, already a rarity below AAA, has become exceptionally rare even in AAA. Last year, Round Rock’s eight busiest relievers combined for only five back-to-back outings. In the past, pitching on consecutive days was a tell that a reliever might be headed for Arlington soon. Now, the relatively rigid AAA workloads and expansion of up-and-down relievers may have made that idea obsolete. AAA is still the final audition, but even with Davis in charge, relief usage operates less like the Majors than it ever has.
AAA usage has also changed much more than low-A over the past decade:
Texas AAA in 2024: 43 relievers, 3.3 per game Texas AAA in 2012: 22 relievers, 2.4 per game
Texas Low-A in 2024: 30 relievers, 2.2 per game Texas Low-A in 2012: 20 relievers, 2.0 per game
A good many “relievers” in low-A are tandem working multiple innings, while in AAA, relievers commonly work a single frame, so more are needed on a given night.
45 Texas minor leaguers saved a full-season game last year, led by Skylar Hales with ten. Teams don’t have set closers, or to the extent they do, they tend to place trustworthiness above ceiling. In the last 17 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None has ever subsequently saved a Major League game. Sometimes in critical situations, managers have leeway to use relievers who’ve proven their trust more traditionally. Batting Orders, Position Player Starts Batting orders aren’t necessarily optimized for run production and or aligned with the relative qualities of the prospects. Don’t worry about them.
Players tend to receive regular rest. No Marcus Semiens in the minors. 1B Arturo Disla missed an organization-low 11 games last year out of scheduled 132. Even well-regarded prospects may find themselves in a rotation, receiving a day off each week to accommodate a crowded infield or outfield. Likewise, even the least heralded will receive occasional action. I mentioned this recently in the context of Alejandro Osuna’s AA assignment. Osuna can handle AAA now, I think, and maybe he’d be there if Evan Carter hadn’t been optioned. But for now, Round Rock already has five outfielders who deserve to be in the system, and having Osuna (who deserves no more than one day off per week) up there would create too any players for too few starts.
Errors and “Mistakes” The number of miscues that give the opposition free runners or bases increases greatly at the lower levels.
Likewise, fielding mistakes that don’t appear in the box score increase down the ladder. For example, fielder’s choices that don’t result in outs, throws to home that miss the cutoff and allow the trail runner to advance.
Running With MLB adopting the runner-friendly rules tested in the minors, you’ve probably got a better idea of how they affect the game. The Rangers have been especially adept at exploiting these rules. In 2021, Down East set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. The next year, the Woodies stole 308, setting the low-A record and falling five shy of the most by any minor league team since at least 1990.
Teams run much more often in the minors than MLB, ranging from 22% more in AAA to 75% more in the rookie ball. Across the minors in the US last year, the success rate on the bases was 78%, and rates don’t decline down the ladder despite the increased attempts.
Promotions Promotions and demotions aren’t made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone else’s spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Released? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are often complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than you’d like because Texas has to sort through all these issues.
Age The best prospects tend to receive aggressive assignments and are young for their levels. Down the road, they’re often omitted from my annual 40-Man / Rule 5 preview because they forced their way onto the MLB squad months earlier (Wyatt Langford, for example). If all you know about a player is his age, you actually know quite a lot. 19-year-old Sebastian Walcott will open the season in AA, as did Jurickson Profar, and Elvis Andrus before.
One shouldn’t get carried away with age, though. Of course, players drafted out of college will be older, so dismissing them for being 23 in high-A would be ridiculous. However, the older the player, the higher the expectations. (Incidentally, that a good many college players don’t handle A-level ball reinforces just how hard the pro game is.) Catchers tend to take more time, as do many pitchers.
The Rangers don’t promote as aggressively as a decade ago, and promotions feel more player-tailored and less driven by organizational culture.
Slash Stats (Average / On-Base Percentage / Slugging) In the Majors, batting average isn’t completely useless, but it matters far less than on-base percentage and slugging. In the minors, I still like to keep an eye on it. Putting the bat on the ball with frequency and authority is what gets players noticed and moves them up the ladder.
Here’s two fictional players with 500 plate appearances. Both have a .360 OBP and .440 slugging percentage:
Same OBP, same slugging percentage, very different hitters. Ian Happ was in the vicinity of Player A last year. Player B batted .319 but doesn’t walk much or offer much more than doubles power. There aren’t many Player B type nowadays. Luis Arraez is in the ballpark.
These stats mean the least at lower levels and gain importance as players advance. They also matter more to offense-oriented positions. Except at the extreme margin and probably not even then, a first basemen cannot compensate for weak hitting with outstanding defense. He has to hit.
Walks and Strikeouts for Hitters The goal of a hitter is to reach base safely, so the ability to lay off iffy pitches can define a career. Walks create hitting situations with runners on base, wear down the pitcher, and mitigate inevitable slumps. Back in 2022, Aaron Zavala drew eight walks during his season-starting 0-for-16 slump, producing a .333 OBP. Would that all slumps were so productive. Zavala gave his teammates eight opportunities to hit with a runner on base, and he scored three runs in those four hitless games.
Still, walks are a means, not an end. I do worry about players who seem to rely too heavily on walks, which is easier to do at the lower levels where control is often absent. Selectivity is a great attribute. Passivity, not so much. Eventually, the hitter will rise to a level at which most pitchers not only have control but a semblance of command, and the hitter will have to adjust. Many cannot.
To some extent, we can ignore hitters’ strikeouts. What really matters is how they perform when they don’t. Not to be flip, but strikeouts for hitters don’t matter until they do. At some point, they reach a level that forces a herculean batting average on contact just to get by. An MLB hitter with league-average walk and strikeout rates need to hit about .323 on contact to post a league-average OBP of .312. A hitter who fans like Zach Gelof (34% last year) needs to hit .390 for the same OBP. (He didn’t, and his OBP was .270.)
Some hitters are exceptionally good at avoiding strikeouts, but not particularly to their benefit. Most of the time, weak contact on marginal pitches isn’t any better than a strikeout.
Usually, both walks and strikeouts increase down the organizational ladder. The combined BB/HBP rate in MLB last year was 9.5%. The minor leagues ranged from 11% to 13% in the full-season leagues and 15% at the rookie complexes. Walks exploded in low-A in 2021 and have remained elevated since.
Strikeouts have finally leveled off after years of increases, which is to say they remain historic. Not that long ago, almost any pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate was noteworthy. In 2022, all of low-A had a 25.5% K rate, and last year dipped to 24.8%. No league at any level averaged fewer than 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. A pitcher with one strikeout per inning is at best average, usually below.
ERA I do list ERA when recapping pitchers. Much of the time, it’s a handy stat, but it’s not the end-all and sometimes is lying to you. Let’s take two pitchers from the lower levels in 2024:
Player A: 3.34 ERA, 1 HR per 64 batters, 13% BB/HBP rate, 19% SO rate Player B: 4.39 ERA, no HR allowed, 8% BB/HBP rate, 32% SO rate
Player A had the better ERA, but I’d pick Player B in a critical situation.
You’ll occasionally read something from me like “he’s pitched better [or worse] than his ERA would suggest.” If Players A and B continue to pitch as they have, Player B is far more likely to have the lower ERA eventually.
Homers, Walks and Strikeouts for Pitchers These are better indicators than ERA, which is often tied to luck on balls in play and (for starters) how well relievers strand runners left behind. That ties to the Players A and B example above.
Homers are trickier to analyze. More fly balls equal more homers, of course, but HR rates can bounce around crazily from year to year for no other reason than variance. Walk and strikeout rates tend to stabilize more quickly.
A combined BB/HBP of 10%, slightly problematic a dozen years ago, is now well below average in most leagues. My old rule of thumb was that a BB/HBP rate of 15% was untenable for a would-be starting pitcher, because he’d run into trouble too often and force too many bullpen innings. In 2023, more low-A Carolina League starts had a BB/HBP rate above 15% than below 10%, although that was not the case last year. In any case, more pitchers seem to be able to abide the higher walk rate because they’re darn near unhittable otherwise, and they aren’t being asked to face as many batters. Even so, as they climb the ladder, those walks are more likely to cause trouble.
Strikeouts have risen so much that I still have to remind myself what constitutes an acceptable rate. In 2007, my first year on the job, the best team in the low-A Midwest League (which contained Texas-affiliated Clinton) had a strikeout rate of 21.3%. Last year, the worst team in the low-A Carolina League (including Down East) had a rate of 23%.
The gap between starters and relievers has disappeared. Again comparing Texas’s low-A leagues from past to present, the 50 busiest starters had a strikeout rate of 19% in 2007 and 25% in 2024. The corresponding figures for the 50 relievers finishing the most games were 25% and 24%. Yes, starters actually struck out batters at a higher rate than relievers last year.
HBPs are kind of an afterthought in typical stat-watching, but they’ve risen greatly in recent years, and some pitchers are plunk-prone enough to seriously degrade their performance. Last year, low-A Carolina hit 122 batters in 129 games. Fielding Fielding is trickiest to evaluate from an outsider’s perspective. Fielding percentage rarely tells the whole story.
For example, over the course of a season, let’s pretend two infielders share shortstop duties equally. On their first 400 grounders, they’re identical statistically. But then on their next 20 grounders apiece, Shortstop 1 fails to reach any, but Shortstop 2 reaches all of them and turns 15 into outs and throws 5 into the stands, allowing those hitters to reach second. Shortstop 2 will have a worse fielding percentage, but he also turned 15 more balls into outs. Would you rather an opposing batter reach first safely 20 times, or reach second 5 times but get put out the other 15 times? Shortstop 2 is far more effective despite making more errors.
Even with no stats, you can learn plenty simply from where someone plays. Since-traded Echedry Vargas made 85 low-A starts at shortstop last season. He was sometimes sloppy, and it’s an open question as to whether he’ll stick (unlikely), but he was the best infield prospect on the squad, so shortstop was his spot.
If a particular player has a monopoly on SS or CF, you’ve got three potential scenarios: 1) Irrespective of prospect status, he’s the best at the position; 2) He might not be the best fielder, but he’s a better prospect and expected to continue there at a higher level; 3) He isn’t the best fielder and probably will move in the long run, but he’s the best prospect, and there’s no harm in seeing if he can grow into the position. Field and League Context Here’s the park-adjusted league averages for Texas’s full-season affiliates in 2024:
Round Rock: 5.6 runs per game, .262/.352/.429 slash line, 0.98 park factor Frisco: 4.7 runs, .242/.328/.481, 1.04 park factor Hickory: 4.6 runs, .231/.319/.372, 1.02 park factor Down East: 4.3 runs, .224/.318/.326, 0.96 park factor
Round Rock suppresses offense relative to most of its peers, but the Pacific Coast League is so hitter-oriented as a whole that even Express hitters’ stats have to be viewed with a little cynicism. Down East was a pitcher-friendly park in a pitcher-friendly league. This year, Hickory’s friendlier park shifts to low-A, and we’ll await feedback on the new high-A park in Spartanburg.
The homer rate in low-A is about 48% lower than MLB. A good many players haven’t reached full physical maturity.
Statcast Statcast data became available for Texas’s AAA league in 2022, and this spring, it became much more widely available in Spring Training games. Jack Leiter introducing a sinker and adjusted changeup to his repertoire? Marc Church mixing in some changes? Alejandro Osuna showing MLB-quality pop? All information now publicly available for anyone to analyze should they desire. (I desire.)
I do my own analysis of every tracked pitch so I can ascertain who’s missing bats and with what, who’s swinging at the most out-of-zone pitches,, who has a high average but might not be hitting with MLB-caliber force, and so on. I categorize every ball in play based on what it typically produced in the Majors, not in AAA. Plenty of balls that become extra-base hits in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League may just be long outs in a typical MLB park. It’s not a perfect system but for example, it gives me an idea of what percentage of a hitters’ homers were sure things versus more likely outs or doubles under typical MLB conditions.
Luck The likelihood of a .250 batter going hitless in 16 consecutive at-bats is small: almost exactly one in 100. Spread that to 36 hitters (nine per Texas’s four full-season teams) and the likelihood that someone starts the season 0-for-16 jumps to nearly one in three, still uncommon but not rare. Aaron Zavala began 2022 0-for-16 (with eight walks). In 2023, Justin Foscue didn’t collect a hit until his 18th at-bat. Nobody reached that mark last year, but more than one came close.
Over the course of an entire season, the likelihood of someone having an even longer hitless stretch is virtually assured. Statistical variance in baseball is much higher than most people think. Don’t place too much emphasis on the short run, whether good or bad. (On the other hand, Sebastian Walcott’s 1-for-21 start in 2024 wasn’t unlucky. He really was that bad! He got better.)
Runs Scored, RBI, Pitcher Wins/Losses Ignored except as occasional anecdotes.
Report Tone Most of Texas’s minor leaguers aren’t going to reach MLB or make much impact if they do. Texas has 26 Major Leaguers and well over 200 minor leaguers. The cold math turns most of them into “failures.”
They are not failures. They’re exceptional athletes in an industry with a very limited number of jobs. If you’re the 2,000th best accountant in the country, you’re doing great, plus you can start your own business if you want. The 2,000th professional baseball player is in Double A, and he can’t start his own league to compete against MLB.
Also, the players themselves have never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with repertoires that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago. There are hitters who would at least be injury fill-ins. The population of the United States has increased 25% in the last 26 years. The number of Major League organizations has increased by 0%.
Ultimately, I want to be honest about a player’s likelihood of reaching the Majors and of success at that level, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but I’ll cover anyone having a great day.
