Month: July 2024

Brock Porter threw three scoreless, hitless innings for the rookies yesterday. He walked two and struck out five. Porter also pitched last Friday, but I was in Mexico and didn’t notice. In that outing, he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk in two innings, and he fanned three. I’m mostly interested in his walk/HBP rate, the best way to measure his control from the stats available at that level. He’s walked three and hit none of 21 batters faced (15% rate), which isn’t good in and of itself but marginally better than last year and a vast improvement on the 38% rate that landed him in Arizona after three high-A starts. Assuming the Rangers intend to keep him in Surprise for the time being, Porter will have three more outings before the season ends, maybe four if they shorten his rest periods slightly.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 4, @ Sugar Land (HOU) 7
Round Rock: 8 hits, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 12 hits, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 5-5, 4 GB, 42-42 overall

SP Adrian Sampson: 2.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 58 P / 31 S, 5.36 ERA
2B Justin Foscue: 1-3, 2B, BB, .220/.426/.380

Forrest Whitley vultured the win for Sugar Land. Injuries have limited the 2016 1st-rounder to 330 professional innings, 51 of those coming in Fall Leagues that made up for time lost to injury during the 2018 and 2019 regular seasons. He appeared in multiple top-100 prospect lists for four or five years in a row. That made me think of Jorge Alfaro, similarly lauded during 2012-2017. Alfaro was released by the Cubs in late March and never signed elsewhere.

Atlanta selected the contract for former Ranger Eli White. On April 9th, AAA Gwinnett featured an outfield of White, JP Martinez, and Leury Garcia, plus catcher Sandy Leon.

AA: Frisco 7, Arkansas (SEA) 6
Frisco: 9 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 6-4, 2 GB, 50-29 overall

SP Nick Krauth: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 3 SO, 76 P / 47 S, 5.07 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
RF Josh Hatcher: 2-4, 3B, .286/.326/.427
2B Max Acosta: 1-4, 2B, SB (14), .253/.315/.359

In front of the second-largest crowd in Frisco history, the Riders scored six in the 1st but did not coast, needing to survive several nervy situations from the 5th onward. Skylar Hales entered in the 5th with one out, two on and a three-run lead. After multiple out-in-front fouls, Arkansas’s Kaden Polcovich lined to a perfectly positioned 2B Max Acosta, who was deep and closer to first than second. Acosta then threw to SS Keyber Rodriguez to double off the lead runner. 

Hi-A: wet

Two today.

Lo-A: Down East 4, @ Carolina (MIL) 6
Down East: 8 hits, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 5-8, 5 GB, 40-38 overall

SP Paul Bonzagni: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 63 P / 36 S, 4.15 ERA
RP Josh Trentadue: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, 4.50 ERA
2B Echedry Vargas: 2-5, 2B, HR (9), .273/.330/.459
SS Danyer Cueva: 1-2, 2 BB, .203/.235/.253
C Julian Brock: 1-3, BB, SB (5), .218/.296/.323

Echedry Vargas has seven homers in his last 14 games.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Leiter
AA: Santos
Hi-A: Rosario / TBA
Lo-A: TBA (might be Izack Tiger)

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Yerry Rodriguez allowed one run, walked none, and struck out seven in six innings for low-A Hickory. In his first appearance for AAA Buffalo since being traded to Toronto, Rodriguez recorded two outs and two walks.

Rangers Farm Report: Games of Wednesday 3 July
Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 3, Sugar Land (HOU) 4
Round Rock: 6 hits, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 6-6, 3 GB, 43-43 overall

SP Gerson Garabito: 5.2 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 2 SO, 94 P / 58 S, 2.98 ERA
RP Josh Sborz: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 8.10 ERA
RP Brock Burke: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 2.45 ERA
LF Dustin Harris: 2-4, SB (21), .256/.344/.363

Dustin Harris is batting .232/.322/.288 since the start of the Sugar Land series on May 21. He’s not striking out that much, but the hits aren’t coming lately.

AA: Frisco 2, @ Arkansas (SEA) 3 (10)
Frisco: 7 hits, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 5-4, 2 GB, 49-29 overall

SP Ben Anderson: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 71 P / 47 S, 4.34 ERA
RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2.19 ERA
RP Seth Clark: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2.42 ERA
LF Alejandro Osuna: 3-5, 2B

Frisco ran off starter Logan Evans in the 1st but could plate only two and none thereafter. Arkansas scored the winner on a bounced slider from Steven Jennings with a runner on 3rd in the 10th.

Hi-A: Hickory 5, Winston-Salem (CHW) 1
Hickory: 10 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 7-5, 0.5 GB, 35-43 overall

SP Mitch Bratt: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, 75 P / 58 S, 3.52 ERA
RP Josh Mollerus: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 3-4, 2B, 2 HR (4), SB (15), .243/.292/.390
3B Sebastian Walcott: 2-4, 2B, .237/.340/.398
CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, 2B, .248/.298/.331

Mitch Bratt matched a season-high 15 swinging strikes despite an early pull. His 3.52 ERA honestly sells him a little short, as his first outing of the season was a seven-run wipeout. Since then: 2.66 ERA, 14 walks, 62 strikeouts in 61 innings, .202/.251/.339 opposing line.

Since May 29 (admittedly a cherry-picked starting point), Cam Cauley is batting .309/.358/.512 in 29 games. He also has a 28% K rate in that span, above the league average but below his usual rate.

Lo-A: Down East 3, Carolina (MIL) 4 (10)
Down East: 9 hits, 1 walk, 14 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 5-7, 4 GB, 40-37 overall

SP Jose Gonzalez: 6 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 76 P / 51 S, 2.41 ERA
RP Brayan Magdaleno: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 2.28 ERA
2B Danyer Cueva: 1-4, HR (1), .195/.213/.247
DH Arturo Disla: 3-4, 2B, HR (6), .272/.357/.401

The decisive run for Carolina was doubled in by David Garcia, the former Ranger. He’s spent the season in high-A after two seasons at AA Frisco.

Best spreads between strikeout and walk/hbp rates in the system, minimum 30 innings:
32%, Alejandro Rosario
31%, Kohl Drake
28%, Skylar Hales
28%, Jose Gonzalez
23%, Winston Santos

The best spread for those who’ve spent the year in AA and/or AAA belongs to Jack Leiter at 20%.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Sampson
AA: Krauth
Hi-A: Lobus
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Baylor lefty Cody Bradford signed. The 6th-round pick received $700,000, equivalent to slot for a high 3rd-rounder. That investment has already paid off, I’d say.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, Sugar Land (HOU) 0
Round Rock: 5 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 5-3, 2 GB, 42-40 overall

SP Tyler Mahle: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 19 P / 12 S, 0.00 ERA
RP Owen White: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 5 SO, 4.46 ERA
RP Grant Wolfram: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 3.66 ERA
1B Justin Foscue: 1-2, BB, HBP, .233/.441/.395
DH Blaine Crim: 2-3, 2B, .224/.330/.364

In his 2024 debut, Tyler Mahle mowed down Sugar Land on an almost too-efficient 19 pitches across two innings. Pitch velocities appeared to be at or very close to norms, although pitch classification issues make the comparison difficult. Regardless, it’s a successful return, pending reports on health.

Owen White followed with one of his best “starts” of the season. He missed 11 bats, not a huge number for 99 pitches, but he induced a high number of grounders and soft contact. I wouldn’t say he’s more than an emergency call-up right now, but he has perhaps a dozen more chances in 2024 to build a case for a larger role.

Blaine Crim continues to perplex. Last year, he batted .370 and slugged .646 on contact. In 2024, those respective figures have diminished to .285 and .452, a shocking year-over-year change. A cursory review of the batted ball data offers little explanation. His rate of balls in play at 95 MPH or higher has dropped from 42% to 40%, not nothing but not enough to explain a nearly .200-point slugging decline. He’s not suddenly hitting everything on the ground or popping up constantly. Is it simply horrendous bad luck? I think luck plays a part but also a subtle but important shift in his velocity range. His top-end velocity remains very strong, but his median has dipped from 93 to 90. He’s hitting more balls in a slightly lower range where a difference of 2-3 MPH is critical. A ball that might sneak over the fence stays in, former doubles get caught, more grounders get snagged. I’m not certain of my analysis, but that’s what I see. In any case, I’d hold to my position that luck has despised him all season, and simply staying the course should produce better results.

Johnny Cueto opted out of his contract.

AA: Frisco 1, @ Arkansas (SEA) 4
Frisco: 5 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 5-3, 1 GB, 49-28 overall

SP Ryan Garcia: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 96 P / 61 S, 3.97 ERA
RF Aaron Zavala: 2-4, .211/.326/.302

Ryan Garcia produced his best outing of the season.

Friend-of-the-Report Grant Schiller of Baseball Prospectus offered his eyewitness takes on Dane Acker and Aaron Zavala on Monday (subscription link). On Acker, Schiller saw swing/back-of-rotation potential if better control could be procured, while the Zavala assessment was understandably gloomier. Earlier in the year, I suggested Zavala was roughly halfway between his earlier success and 2023’s post-injury struggles. In mid-May, he was batting .266/.386/.381. Since then, however, he’s only .148/.259/.217 including a .243 average and .346 slugging percentage on contact.

Hi-A: Hickory 8, Winston-Salem (CHW) 2
Hickory: 8 hits, 6 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 6-5, 0.5 GB, 34-43 overall

SP Kohl Drake: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 9 SO, 83 P / 58 S, 0.82 ERA
RF Anthony Gutierrez: 1-3, BB, .242/.293/.320
C Ian Moller: 2-3, 3B, BB, .222/.342/.293
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-4, HR (2), .182/.182/.394
LF Yosy Galan: 1-4, HR (7), .170/.280/.346

In his second high-A start, Kohl Drake manhandled the Dash for six innings, offering a fastball, curve slider, and change, all of which had their moments. The fastball speeds I heard were 91-92, though I’ve seen multiple reports of higher.

Gleider Figuereo leads the organization with 14 homers.

Lo-A: Down East 9, Carolina (MIL) 3
Down East: 11 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 5-6, 3 GB, 40-36 overall

SP David Davallilo: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 77 P / 45 S, 1.37 ERA
SS Echedry Vargas: 3-5, 2B, HR (8), .271/.332/.447
DH Jojo Blackmon: 2-4, 2 SB (6), .196/.273/.320
3B Esteban Mejia: 3-3, 3B, BB, .171/.310/.343

Davalillo has allowed zero runs in seven of 13 outings. Earlier this season, his strikeout rate was fairly mundane, but in his most recent six starts he’s fanned 31% of his opponents along with a 9% BB/HBP rate and 0.58 ERA.

Since missing most of the series at Fredericksburg (including, sadly, the game I saw in person), Echedry Vargas is hitting .394/.444/.788 with four homers in eight games.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Garabito
AA: B. Anderson
Hi-A: Bratt
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Matt Bush suffered a torn elbow ligament and would undergo Tommy John surgery. He’d returned to action in Frisco only three weeks earlier after missing 12 months for a UCL tear that didn’t require Tommy John. A disheartening event, to be sure, but as we’d find out, July 2019 was close to the ideal time to suffer that sort of injury.

Addendum
Nathaniel Lowe is the worst player in the history of organized sport, and I hate him and everything he stands for.*

* Explanation here. I promise I won’t actually do this every day.

Announced for the upcoming Futures Game are pitchers Emiliano Teodo and Winston Santos plus infielder Sebastian Walcott.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 11, Sugar Land (HOU) 9
Round Rock: 13 hits, 7 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 4-3, 41-40 overall

SP Tim Brennan: 2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 45 P / 29 S, 4.35 ERA
RP Chase Lee: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Daniel Robert: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.82 ERA
1B Justin Foscue: 2-5, HR (2), .220/.418/.390
DH Blaine Crim: 2-4, 2B, BB, .219/.327/.357
RF Trevor Hauver: 2-3, 2B, 2 BB, .207/.337/.323
2B Jax Biggers: 3-5, 2B, 3B, SB (6), .274/.407/.406
C Matt Whatley: 2-4, 2B, HR (2), .191/.304/.309

Jax Biggers executed a straight steal of home to put the Express up 10-9 in the 7th. Pitcher Nick Hernandez never even threw to the plate.

Tim Brennan is back following another injury absence. Two games into a return from Tommy John surgery, he missed nearly three more months. Brennan tops at around 91 and relies on control and a tremendous grounder rate, although last night’s balls in play were mostly airborne.

Catcher Andrew Knapp (.292/.374/.444) had an took an opt-out. He hit well in Round Rock, and the statcast data mostly approves. He had an above-average rate of 95+ MPH contact that tapered to below-average at the upper percentiles. Knapp has a .210/.310/.313 line in 325 MLB games.

Per a local report, Zeke Duran has been working on swing changes and is expected to play today. He’s been absent since being optioned to AAA.

Since my complaint (really just an observation) about Round Rock’s league-worst offense has resulted in a torrent of runs, I hereby register a formal complaint about the Texas Rangers’ offense.

AA: Frisco 2, @ Arkansas (SEA) 0 (10)
Frisco: 4 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeout
Opponent: 5 hits, 2 walks, 17 strikeouts
Record: 5-2, 49-27 overall

SP Josh Stephan: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 86 P / 52 S, 4.36 ERA
RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1.97 ERA
RP Skylar Hales: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Tyler Owens: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.45 ERA
LF Kellen Strahm: 1-2, 2 BB, SB (15), .277/.362/.391
SS Max Acosta: 2-4, SB (13), .258/.322/.363

Four Riders combined for an extended five-hit shutout. Josh Stephan is on a four-game streak of no more than one walk and two runs. A slightly inflated homer rate has his opposing slugging percentage at .438 compared to the league average of .372, but his control has been solid.

Hi-A: Hickory 3, Winston-Salem (CHW) 2
Hickory: 5 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 4 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 5-5, 0.5 GB, 33-43 overall

SP DJ McCarty: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 6 SO, 89 P / 49 S, 4.24 ERA
RP Adrian Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 4.23 ERA
RP DJ Peters: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 8.03 ERA
2B Cam Cauley: 2-5, 3B, .233/.284/.350
SS Sebastian Walcott: 2-3, BB, .235/.336/.395

Sebastian Walcott has been a little quiet lately, although nothing like first week of the season. Cam Cauley’s mini-run continues. He could use a good second half. A better first might have landed him in Frisco by now. Both his strikeout rate and especially his walk rate have trended backwards compared to 2023 at the same level, but June showed improvement.

Lo-A: Down East 3, Carolina (MIL) 2 (11)
Down East: 5 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 7 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 4-6, 3 GB, 39-36 overall

SP Brayan Mendoza: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 79 P / 48 S, 2.58 ERA
RP Alberto Mota: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 5.63 ERA
RP Victor Simeon: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 2.93 ERA
LF Jojo Blackmon: 2-4, 2B, BB, .183/.264/.312
3B Esteban Mejia: 1-4, HR (1), .094/.237/.219

Credit Alberto Mota and Victor Simeon for holding Carolina scoreless across two extra frames. Mota has some appeal but was shipped back to Arizona after a couple of wild outings and needed a few weeks to get that out of his system. He’s fanned eight in four scoreless innings since returning.

Today’s Starters
AAA: White
AA: Garcia
Hi-A: Drake
Lo-A: TBA

Five Years Ago Yesterday
International signings were at hand. Unfortunately, Texas’s marquee selection in 2019 was OF Bayron Lora, who would become a colossally expensive bust. For reasons I can’t recall and am not going to research today, his signing was delayed until August, which conveniently pushed his Rule 5 eligibility out a year. That would be of no consequence. Lora batted .218/.413/.401 in one DSL season, was suspended in 2022, and Texas released him in 2023. He hasn’t played since, at least not in a league that would appear on any sites I follow.

Box Score

AAA: Round Rock 14, El Paso (SDP) 3
Round Rock: 11 hits, 10 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 3-3, 40-40 overall

SP Johnny Cueto: 6 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 74 P / 51 S, 5.92 ERA
RP Josh Sborz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 10.13 ERA
2B Justin Foscue: 1-4, 2B, BB, .194/.420/.306
RF Sandro Fabian: 2-4, HR (10), BB, .297/.366/.500
C Sam Huff: 2-5, HR (8), .245/.333/.434
SS Jose Barrero: 2-4, BB, .191/.277/.350
LF Trevor Hauver: 1-2, 2B, 3 BB, .199/.325/.311

Round Rock reeled off 24 runs in the days two since I mentioned their league-worst scoring.

Pitching on one day of rest for the first time, Josh Sborz retired his side in order but was throwing about 3 MPH slower than the 2023 version. That may just be who he is in a short term, and assuming no further health issues, I imagine there’s little to do but bring him up at some point and hope for the best. He does have up to two more weeks on rehab assignment for Texas to assess.

Texas traded Yerry Rodriguez to Toronto for 24-year-old righty Josh Mollerus, last year’s tenth-round pick out of Oregon. At high-A Vancouver, Mollerus has a 3.90 ERA, 17% BB/HBP rate and 35% strikeout rate in 23 relief appearances covering 30 innings. Last year in the low-A Florida State League, where statcast is available, Mollerus had a roughly 60/40 fastball-slider split. The fastball averaged 92.1, the slider 84.5.

AA: Frisco 5, Corpus Christi (HOU) 3
Frisco: 7 hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts
Record: 4-2, 48-27 overall

SP Emiliano Teodo: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 10 SO, 81 P / 50 S, 1.87 ERA
LF Kellen Strahm: 1-4, HR (6), .276/.356/.390
DH Abi Ortiz: 1-2, 2B, BB, .187/.255/.320

Emiliano Teodo posted double-digit strikeouts for a second time this season, walked only one, and once again prevented any extra-base hits. He’s allowed 11 extra bases on hits all season. Teodo has the best swinging strike rate (17.4%) and fourth-best grounder rate (48%) among 24 Texas League qualifiers.

Abi Ortiz batted .286/.389/.429 in the Corpus series.

Hi-A: Hickory 11, @ Greenville (BOS) 4 (7)
Hickory: 13 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
Record: 4-5, 32-43 overall

SP Aidan Curry: 5 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 67 P / 41 S, 8.13 ERA
SS Cam Cauley: 2-4, BB, .229/.281/.338
LF Yeison Morrobel: 3-5, 2B, .235/.308/.338
C Ian Moller: 2-3, BB, .213/.335/.275
RF Jayce Easley: 3-3, BB, SB (13), .185/.330/.212

Cam Cauley batted .277/.333/.416 in June, easily his best of the season.

I hope Yeison Morrolbel has more games like this in him. Texas moved him up from Down East despite an injury-shortened and nondescript 2023, and from what I saw in Surprise in March, I was inclined to agree. Unfortunately, his improved strikeout rate hasn’t resulted in either more walks or hits compared to last year, just more balls hit into gloves. He is hitting for more power.

Because of a two-hour weather delay, the game was shortened to seven innings.

Lo-A: Down East 1, @ Delmarva (BAL) 3
Down East: 2 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 3-6, 38-36 overall

SP Kolton Curtis: 5 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 70 P / 38 S, 2.94 ERA
RP Willian Bormie: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 3.80 ERA

20-year-old Kolton Curtis allowed his first homer since mid-May.

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBA
AA: Stephan
Hi-A: McCarty
Lo-A: TBA

Monday is not an off-day for the system. It might be for me. I’ll cover today’s games in the next report, whenever that is.

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Tim Dillard was helpful to the Rangers and other organizations in his lengthy career. In this case, helpfulness meant coming out for the 5th inning with ten runs already on his ledger. He would leave having allowed 13 runs (off five homers et cetera) in 4.2.