Category: Daily Report

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 8, Sugar Land (HOU) 6
Round Rock: 8 hits, 9 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 2-1

SP Adrian Sampson: 5 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 77 P / 49 S, 3.60 ERA
RP Antoine Kelly: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
CF Elier Hernandez: 2-4, 2B, BB
C Sam Huff: 2-3, 2B, BB

After some difficult late-March outings that cost whatever chance he had of making the Opening Day squad, Adrian Sampson had a nice first start in AAA.

Justin Foscue and Trevor Hauver walked twice. The Astros aren’t known for good control in their minor league system and ranked among the worst in walk rate in the PCL the prior three years.

Depending on when you see him, you might wonder why Daniel Robert isn’t in the Majors. Not Sunday. Up six in the 9th, he retired only one of four batters and left with the bases loaded. Jesus Tinoco promptly surrendered a grand slam but recorded the final two outs.

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Part of my minor league roster preview: “Texas has only 40% of the current rotation under contract for 2020, and [Mike] Minor could re-emerge as trade bait.  The Rangers need a decent portion of their upper-level rotation prospects (Hearn, Burke, Hernandez, Palumbo) to pan out, or they’ll once again have to buy those innings on the free-agent market while they wait for the next wave of pitchers to advance.”

Daily Report Primer Part 1: How The Game Is Played
Every year, I publish a primer as a guide to my daily reports: how the minors are structured, how the game is played and managed, what I look for, what stats I follow and ignore. 

Winning
These are developmental leagues. Rosters aren’t constructed and games aren’t managed to win, at least not as a primary goal. Good prospects aren’t going to be benched if they perform poorly. Does the prospect quality of a system correlate to its performance in the minors? Here’s a chart of every team’s organizational ranking in 2023 per Baseball America and its full-season winning percentage:

In some years I’ve seen a hint of a pattern. Not so much this year, except perhaps having the three worst winning percentages among the seven worst-ranked clubs. Just like last year, the regression indicates one higher spot in the rankings is worth about three-quarters of one win over a span of around 600 games, and the confidence interval is vast. That said, over the years, the quality of Texas’s system has correlated reasonably well to its record. But for 2024, what does the Rangers’ current #12 ranking actually represent for its winning chances, given that their top two prospects likely won’t see an inning of the minors?

Some organizations emphasize winning more than others. For my outsider’s perspective, my concern isn’t about winning as much as excessive losing. In 2021, White Sox-affiliated Kannapolis lost its first ten, then 16 of the next 20, and then dropped to 46 games under .500 until an 8-1 finish. That just doesn’t seem conducive to a positive development environment.

Irrespective of how well farm quality translates to winning, I do prefer reporting on winning teams.

Starters
Last year, I wrote how the six-games-a-week schedule encouraged a six-man rotation. So it does, but the Rangers actually pushed against that a little more than I expected in 2023. Not uncommonly, a team would use a five-man rotation, and whoever was starting twice in the week would have a restricted count on Sunday.

Regardless, the idea of a workhorse has disappeared. In 2010, 20-year-old Wilfredo Boscan threw 163 innings in 27 starts, averaging 26.2 batters per start. The old format was 140 games in 151 days, so he averaged six innings every 5.6 days. A substantial workload, but not considered excessive at the time.

That would be inconceivable today. In 2010, 26 Texas minor leaguers averaged at least 18 batters per outing (minimum 10 outings). Last year, only nine did. In 2012, 18 pitchers faced at least 450 batters during the season. Last year, and in 2022, the number was four. In 2023, the median length of a start by a Texas minor leaguer was only 4.0 innings. The organization had only one complete game, itself a technicality in the form of Aidan Curry’s rain-shortened four-inning outing. There were only 73 complete games across the entire full-season minor leagues.

Surprisingly, Texas’s AAA starters haven’t tended to work longer on average than the lower levels the past two seasons. More bullpen starts and some struggles by pitchers expected to last longer have conspired to bring the median AAA outing length down, but even excluding obvious bullpen starts, AAA SPs aren’t throwing more than their lower-level colleagues.

Even with this limited workload, Texas does want starters to get their innings, so pitchers will often be allowed to press through situations that might get an MLB starter pulled. What will get a starter pulled early is excessive pitches. If the inning’s count has crept into the mid-20s with no end in sight, the bullpen will be active. Once it surpasses 30, the pitcher (especially if younger) could be yanked unless the batter he’s facing makes the final out. An unfortunate example would be Brock Porter’s professional debut: 32 pitches, six batters faced, four walks, only two outs recorded.

In the past, Texas’s AAA workload used to have semi-rigid removal standards. Mid-inning pitcher replacement was uncommon; the expectation was a pitcher would finish an inning. I used to jokingly mock opposing managers who removed pitchers mid-inning just to have some authority into the proceedings. Well, the joke’s on me, because Round Rock manager Doug Davis, who took charge last year, loves the mid-inning switch. Honestly, such an approach adheres more closely to MLB management, so I can’t really complain.

Some organizations have more fluid roles. Houston’s two A-level squads had 19 pitchers who both started and finished at least three games. Texas’s Hickory and Down East teams combined for four. The traditionalist White Sox had none.

Relievers
Minor league relievers tend to pitch on a schedule rather than in situational roles. Even in AAA, nominally the final training ground for the Majors, relievers usually pitch on prescribed days. 

Pitching on consecutive days, already a rarity below AAA, has become exceptionally rare even in AAA. Last year, Round Rock’s eight busiest relievers combined for only five back-to-back outings: Yerry Rodriguez (twice), Chase Lee (twice), and Jacob Latz (once). Not even the experienced Jonathan Hernandez, optioned to AAA for much of the season, pitched on consecutive days.

In the old days (circa 2018), pitching on consecutive days was a tell that a reliever might be headed for Arlington soon. Now, the relatively rigid AAA workloads and expansion of up-and-down relievers may have made that idea obsolete. AAA is still the final audition, but even with manager Doug Davis’s predilection for mid-inning changes, relief usage operates less like the Majors than it ever has.

AAA usage has also changed much more than low-A over the past decade:

Texas AAA in 2023: 39 relievers, 3.6 per game
Texas AAA in 2012: 22 relievers, 2.4 per game

Texas Low-A in 2023: 34 relievers, 2.5 per game
Texas Low-A in 2012: 20 relievers, 2.0 per game

A good many “relievers” in low-A are tandem starters (think the DJ McCarty / Dylan MacLean pairing in Down East last year) working multiple innings, while in AAA, relievers commonly work a single frame, so more are needed on a given night.

45 Texas minor leaguers saved a full-season game last year, led by Antoine Kelly with 11. Only four pitchers had more than five, and 19 had exactly one. Teams don’t have set closers, or to the extent they do, they tend to place trustworthiness above ceiling. In the last 16 years, nine Texas minor league relievers have recorded 20 saves in a season. None has ever subsequently saved a Major League game.

Sometimes in critical situations, managers have leeway to use relievers who’ve proven their trust more traditionally. In 2021, Frisco leaned heavily on 2021 draftee Chase Lee and Daniel Robert down the stretch. In 2022, Nick Starr finished three of Frisco’s four playoff games. Last year was different, however. For example, Down East’s Paul Bonzagni and Izack Tiger had minimal pro experience, but both made multiple appearances in the Woodies’ five-game playoff run.

Batting Orders, Position Player Starts
Batting orders aren’t necessarily optimized for run production and or aligned with the relative qualities of the prospects. Don’t worry about them.

Players tend to receive regular rest. No Marcus Semiens in the minors. Elier Hernandez accrued 612 plate appearances last year, most in the system since 2012, and he missed 12 of 149 games. Even well-regarded prospects may find themselves in a rotation, receiving a day off each week to accommodate a crowded infield or outfield. Likewise, even the least heralded will receive occasional action. A typical team might have only 12 position players consisting of three catchers, five infielders, and four outfielders (with some positional flexibility, of course). Nobody is going to gather dust on the bench.

Walks and Strikeouts
Usually, both increase down the organizational ladder. The combined BB/HBP rate in MLB last year was 9.5%. The minor leagues ranged from 11.9% to 16%. Atypically, high-A exhibited the best control last year.  

Walks exploded in low-A in 2021, something I attributed to an unscheduled year off and automated umpiring in one league. True, but not the whole story, as rates of walks and HBPs have remained elevated. Since the reclassification of the minor league system in 1990, there have been 1,002 low-A team-seasons. The top 16 and 33 of the top 34 highest BB/HBP rates have occurred in the last three years.

Strikeouts have finally leveled off after years of increases, which is to say they remain historic. Not that long ago, almost any pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate was noteworthy. In 2022, all of low-A had a 25.5% K rate, and last year dipped to 24.7%. Nine of the top ten and 52 of the top 60 strikeout seasons in low-A have occurred in the past three years. No league at any levels averaged fewer than nine strikeouts per nine innings. Again, a pitcher with one strikeout per inning is at best average, usually below.

Errors and “Mistakes”
The number of miscues that give the opposition free runners or bases increases greatly at the lower levels.

Likewise, fielding mistakes that don’t appear in the box score increase down the ladder. For example, fielder’s choices that don’t result in outs, throws to home that miss the cutoff and allow the trail runner to advance.

Running
With MLB adopting the runner-friendly rules tested in the minors, you’ve probably got a better idea of how they affect the game. The Rangers have been especially adept at exploiting these rules. In 2021, Down East set an all-time low-A record for most successful attempts per game (2.41), and their total of 290 was only nine short of the record despite playing 20 fewer games than normal. The next year, the Woodies stole 308, setting the low-A record and falling five shy of the most by any minor league team since at least 1990. Last year, the team settled for a middle-of-the-pack 209.

Teams run much more often in the minors than MLB, ranging from 36% more in AAA to 156% more in the DSL. Across the minors in the US last tear, the success rate on the bases was 77%, and rates don’t decline despite the increased attempts.

Promotions
Promotions and demotions aren’t made in a vacuum. A promoted player is necessarily taking someone else’s spot. Should that other player also be promoted? Demoted? Moved to a different position? Should the players share the position and moonlight at DH? Should the promoted guy move to a different position instead, and who would that affect? These decisions are sometimes complicated, and a player might advance more slowly than you’d like because Texas has to sort through all these issues.

Report Tone
Even in a deep system, most of Texas’s minor leaguers aren’t going to reach MLB or make much impact if they do. Texas has 26 Major Leaguers and well over 200 minor leaguers. The cold math turns most of them into “failures.”

They are not failures. They’re exceptional athletes in an industry with a limited number of jobs. If you’re the 2,000^th best accountant in the country, you’re doing great, plus you can start your own business if you want. The 2,000^th professional baseball player is in Double A, and he can’t start his own league to compete against MLB.

Also, we can argue about the relative entertainment quality of the current high-strikeout era, but the players themselves have never been better. There are pitchers stuck in AAA with repertoires that I guarantee would have made them passable MLB relievers a dozen years ago.

Ultimately, I want to be honest about a player’s likelihood of reaching the Majors, and I focus on the prospects most likely to help Texas in the future, but I’ll cover anyone having a great day.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 8, Sugar Land (HOU) 6
Round Rock: 15 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 1-1, tied for first

SP Michael Lorenzen: 2.2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 50 P / 34 S, 10.13 ERA
RP Jack Leiter: 5 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 9 SO, 3.60 ERA
RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 9.00 ERA
2B Justin Foscue: 2-5
3B Davis Wendzel: 1-4, HR (1), BB
LF Dustin Harris: 2-4, SB (1)
RF Trevor Hauver: 2-4, 2B
SS Jonathan Ornelas: 4-4, HR (1)

Jack Leiter has a couple of outings that are statistically superior, but I’m here to tell you that last night was his best performance as a professional. Certainly, I’ve never seen him look more comfortable. So many of his nights have involved such struggle just to get by, with him seemingly having to recalibrate mentally and physically before every pitch. Last night, he made a difficult task look easy. 

Leiter fanned nine of 17 batters and missed 11 bats out of 33 swings. Yet what impressed me most is not that he simply blew the ball by people. Six of his nine strikeouts were looking, five of those on fastballs. He consistently got ahead, and instead of snapping off a slider as might be expected, he usually dealt another fastball, very consistently inside lefties and outside to righties. Sugar Land didn’t catch on. Across his 3rd and 4th innings, four consecutive batters stared dully at fastballs for strike three.

Leiter has always missed bats, and the Space Cowboys* swung through several elevated fastballs and diving sliders. But for him to succeed repeatedly with location is another matter.

Sugar Land finally did catch on in his final inning. He wasn’t quite so sharp. He retired two of the first three batters but needed seven pitches for each out. Then, on an 0-2 count to lefty slugger Joey Loperfino, Leiter again turned to the inside fastball. Loperfino sent it 420 feet the other direction. Leiter then worked another seven-pitch out culminating with Trey Cabbage’s swing through a high fastball.

Leiter’s fastball reached over 22 inches of induced vertical break on three occasions. That is truly elite, particularly for pitches thrown 96-97 MPH. In case that term is alien to you, for purposes of judging four-seamers, it represents the apparent ability to rise, and to the extent the ball differentiates itself from the average fastball, it is often harder to hit.

Leiter’s less frequent curve was most effective as a first-pitch strike-stealer, and one change (deemed a sinker by Statcast, but I think not) resulted in a groundout.

I have to provide the caveat that it’s just one night. If he belly-flops his next outing, we’ve got a different discussion.  But last night, living in the moment, I hadn’t been that excited since he was drafted. I’ll have video later. The Express have video now.

Michael Lorenzen didn’t have an attractive line, but for what was essentially a Spring Training start, he was fine. The velocity was typical. I didn’t see anything to worry about.

Unfortunately, Marc Church was closer to the 2023 version than the one who nearly claimed a bullpen job in Arlington to start the season. Called to protect a three-run lead in the 9th, he missed on seven of his first nine pitches, and three balls in play afterward were medium-hard or worse. With what already might be the defensive play of the season, CF Elier Hernandez pulled back what would have been a game-tying homer. Please watch.

I whined Saturday about Jonathan Ornelas continuing 2023’s trend of hard but fruitless grounders. Last night, he added three more balls in play of at least 100 MPH. All airborne this time, all hits, including a two-run homer.

* (that’s their actual name, not something I made up)

Podcast
Sean Bass of the Ticket, Michael Tepid and I has resumed podcasting. Links to our first episode of the season are in my signature.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Adrian Sampson

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 2, Sugar Land (HOU) 4
Round Rock: 4 hits, 5 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 0-1, 1 GB

SP Owen White: 4 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 4 R, 2 BB, 6 SO, 79 P / 50 S, 9.00 ERA
RP Cole Winn: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
RP Grant Anderson: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
LF Dustin Harris: 1-3, BB

Owen White offered the reverse of the Jekyll/Hyde performance I saw in Surprise. This time, Hyde (the bad guy) arrived first. White needed 51 pitches to complete the first two innings, walking two and allowing a two-run homer and deep double to right-center. His velocity was fine (92-95 fastball), a couple of tics above what he often dealt in 2023, but basic control was absent, resulting in three three-ball counts in addition to the walks.

Dr. Jekyll arrived in the 3rd. White needed only 26 pitches in the next two innings, regaining his control such that he could deceive opponents with first-pitch changeups and sliders, and nothing but sliders to one batter followed by nothing but fastballs to another. Much, much better. A single to start the 5th ended his night. On the whole, White did throw a higher percentage of swinging strikes than he averaged last year, and he dealt first-pitch strikes to 12 of 18 batters.

I don’t wish to make such an ominous pronouncement on day one of the minor league season, but here it is: The difference between White’s second two innings and first two is the difference between getting back to the Majors and not. Mr. Hyde can’t be out there throwing half his innings.

I’d marked a couple of early pitches from Cole Winn as changeups, but they looked a little funny, tending to dive in toward left-handed batters’ feet. Statcast called them sinkers. Statcast can get a little carried away with pitch categorizations in the minors, and the spin and movement figures were in the same range as his straight change, but yeah, many of them appeared to be sinkers. Winn hit a batter and walked another, but the sinker (or sinker-change tandem) was effective, and every pitch had its moments. A new, effective pitch in Winn’s arsenal would be a blessing, and after his trying Spring Training, it’s nice to be able to look forward to his next outing.

Offensively, the Express didn’t cause a fuss until the 9th. Facing Wander Suero, who as an OKC Dodger threw the final pitch of Round Rock’s season in the Pacific Coast League finals, Davis Wendzel was hit by a pitch and Matt Duffy doubled. With two out, Sandro Fabian doubled them home. After another, uglier HBP that forced CF Derek Hill out of the game, Justin Foscue lined a 3-2 cutter directly into Suero’s glove.

Sugar Land starter Spencer Arrighetti had his own trouble throwing strikes, walking five in 4.1 IP, but he allowed only two singles and befuddled the Express with a mean sweeper. 11 swings against it generated eight whiffs, two fouls and a batted out. All eight misses were on pitches outside the zone.

Jonathan Ornelas generated solid exit velocities last year, but his production was limited by the highest grounder rate in the PCL. He had Round Rock’s two hardest-hit balls last night (105.3 MPH and 104.2), both on the ground, resulting in three outs.

Today’s Starters
AAA: Leiter (and Lorenzen)

The Texas Rangers have added:
Pitchers Marc Church, Jose Corniell, and Antoine Kelly
Infielder Justin Foscue

Available in the Rule 5 draft will be IFs Blaine Crim and Davis Wendzel, SP prospect Dane Acker, and numerous relievers including Justin Slaten, Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa.

At present, the Rangers have roster space to participate in the Rule 5 draft.

Not comprehensive, but here’s a list of fresh free agents who played in the Rangers organization recently and/or were originally signed by the Rangers:

RHP Joe Barlow
LHP Alex Claudio
RHP Kyle Dowdy
RHP Jerad Eickhoff
LHP Robbie Erlin
RHP Luke Ferrell
RHP Brett de Geus
RHP Demarcus Evans
RHP Tyler Ferguson
RHP Wilmer Font
RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez
LHP Taylor Hearn
RHP Ronald Herrera
RHP Wei-Chieh Huang
RHP Drew Hutchinson
LHP James Jones
RHP Spencer Patton
LHP CD Pelham
RHP Ryder Ryan
RHP Tayler Scott
RHP Drew Strotman
RHP Tyree Thompson
RHP Ricky Vanasco

C Jorge Alfaro
IF Charlie Culberson
IF Yonny Hernandez
IF Charles Leblanc
IF Mark Mathias
IF Josh Morgan
IF Nick Solak
IF Tyreque Reed
IF Yoshi Tsutsugo
OF David Dahl
OF Steven Duggar
OF Clint Frazier
 

I never recovered from 2011. I came to terms with it, after a fashion, but I wouldn’t call it closure. Yes, it’s just sports, but our lives would be different had Texas prevailed.

Some time in early 2012, one of the D/FW sports-radio hosts decided that re-listening to Eric Nadel’s call of that play would serve as an exorcism. Maybe so for him, but for me the call merely reopened a poorly stitched wound. I’ve never watched highlights of that Series. Any time a clip would appear on the tv, I would avert my eyes.

Worse still was something I’d mentioned to my wife, that Texas could be better in 2012 and not even reach the World Series, given the vagaries of playoff baseball. That fear became manifest, as the Rangers were indeed better for much of 2012, until they weren’t.

The Rangers weren’t quite done, at least in the regular season, winning two more division titles and even leading the AL in wins in 2016. That edition was essentially a .500 club with incredible one-run luck, but still, 95 wins! Texas even began 2019 with a record of 46-36 and were tied for the wild card at the end of June.

Then, the window slammed shut. Texas began what would become the worst 500-game stretch in franchise history, 204-296, which extended into May of this year. ¹ There’s nothing magical about 500 games – it’s three full seasons plus two weeks – but it’s a long time. This period was the worst lengthy spell in franchise history, surpassing the dreaded 1982-1985.

Six months later, the Rangers are champions.

I’ve seen grumbling (mainly from an extremely online subset of Astros fans) about how Texas simply purchased a winner, an affront to the noble, process-oriented methodologies of other clubs. ² Whatever. The Rangers had a process, too. They just compressed each step into the shortest time possible.

My podcast mates and I stressed for years that Texas would never construct a postseason-worthy squad with the farm alone. Sure, given that I write about the minor leaguers and you read about them, a squad stocked with homegrown talent is arguably more enjoyable. But at the same time, I have no delusions about team-building. Prospects are a means, not an end. Few reach their ceilings. Some are blocked. As such, their value to an organization is often maximized by trades. Holding onto them out of some warped sense of propriety is malfeasance.

This championship club is as genuine as any other. There’s more than one way to build a winner, and that’s very much a good thing. Ownership, management, coaches and players all pulled together and pointed the ship in the right direction, and their hard work paid off in the best way possible. (And Jon Daniels deserves plenty of credit, too.)

There’s something about being a fan. I guess, in a more cynical frame of mind, you could call it hypocrisy, but I prefer duality.

On the one hand, I’m careful to avoid the word “we” when writing about the Rangers. I’ve never worked for them. I can take zero credit for what they’ve accomplished. If I decide to ignore them, they’ll roll on, unimpeded and carefree. There’s no “we.” Plus, sometimes baseball dares you to pay attention. Work stoppages. An increasingly fractured and unnavigable collection of media rights-holders, but no end to blackouts. Eradication of a quarter of the minor leagues, with potentially more to come. The ever-obtuse Rob Manfred. I could go on.

On the other hand: No. We are the Rangers. You and me.

When Josh Sborz caught the corner for that final strike, I barely moved. ³ I just watched while listening to Eric Nadel’s call. ⁴ 55 years of fandom distilled to an instant. A wave of emotions. Memories of attending games with my father as an official member of the Dr. Pepper Junior Rangers Kids Club, evenings at the ballpark after my work shift at Six Flags, get-togethers I organized in the late 90s and early 2000, Newberg Report nights. Happiness that my wife, who accompanied me to so many playoff games in 2010-2011, was with me. Happiness that a cat she and I named Ranger in 2010 lived long enough to claim “his” title. Sadness that my father couldn’t be here. ⁵

Maybe your parents took you to games as a kid. Maybe you went with friends, with partners, with your kids. Maybe you’ve never set foot in Texas and latched on for other reasons. However you got here, you have a lifetime of memories, some good, some bad, all building up to last night. The “Texas Rangers” are the shared experience. If you’ve been watching, waiting, hurting, you’ve got as much of a claim on that trophy as anyone.

The championship belongs to us. And it’s ours to enjoy for the rest of our lives.

Thanks for reading.

Ranger and me during Game 4

Footnotes
¹ I know that sounds weird. How could any portion of 2023 belong to a “worst-ever” stretch since the Rangers started so well?  The explanation is 2023 with a solid 22-14 record, but in the 36 games before the worst-ever 500, they were slightly better: 23-13.

² Texas’s payroll is $14 million higher than Houston’s. That’s a 6% difference. I tend to think fan bases around baseball are pretty much the same – mostly fine, a few jerks and trolls – but a small but vocal portion of Houston supporters fans are very tightly wound.

³ Admittedly, I spent most of the previous few innings pacing the living room in advance of what was shaping to be an unimaginably tense 9th (or extras!). Once Texas broke open the top of the 9th, I could finally just sit.

⁴ Not that we need to rank deservedness, but does anyone deserve this more than Nadel?

⁵ You can forestall Death with a game of chess, but asking him to wait until a Texas Rangers championship is a bridge too far. 

…as the Rangers enter their third World Series:

ADOLIS GARCIA
Texas acquired him for beer money in late 2019 and designated him for assignment on February 12, 2021, to create room for free agent pitcher Mike Foltynewicz. The move barely preceded the date when teams could stash injured players on the 60-day list, making a waiver claim slightly more difficult, but realistically just about any team could have found a spot for him if desired. But to what purpose? Garcia was 28 (!) with prodigious power but so-so contact and a 7:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks in AAA. I took scant video of Garcia and no notes during the “alt site” minor leagues games between the Rangers and Astros preceding the delayed start of the minor league season, in part because he was quickly called up when Ronald Guzman was injured, but mostly because he was a DFA’ed 28-year-old.

EVAN CARTER
Is Carter here if Garcia hadn’t injured himself trying to rob a Houston homer in early September? It’s easy now to say “don’t be silly, just look at him, he would have forced his way on regardless,” except that he really wasn’t forcing anything at the time. In the six weeks prior, he was walking at will but batting .273 with one homer and a .396 slugging percentage. I wasn’t worried about his composure in MLB at all, given his otherworldly maturity, but I can’t say I expected such an impact. And in fact, he cooled to a more modest .240/.321/.360 in the ALCS, but the timeliness of his hitting and fielding exploits has been heroic.  

JONAH HEIM
He’s a Ranger because a duffel bag crammed with 13,500 hundred-dollar bills accompanied Elvis Andrus to Oakland. He’d already been traded twice and was entering is ninth professional season. I was hoping he’d become a plus backup, like a “#1b” instead of a “#2.”

JOSH SBORZ
Whew, fans were tired of Josh Sborz in early 2023. When he was activated from the IL in April, out of options, my comment was “if you hate him, you should be glad he was called up, because if he’s bad he’ll be DFA’ed and you won’t ever see him again.” I was never a Sborz supporter, per se, but he had terrific stuff, certainly the best among the AAA options, so I thought he deserved another shot.

JOSE LECLERC
Leclerc has a chance to save more games in the postseason than regular season. He saved four games during the 2023 regular season. Four! After Will Smith’s 22nd and final save on August 11, only six of Texas’s 21 regular season wins involved a save, split equally by Leclerc and Aroldis Chapman. Incidentally, Leclerc is the only current player who was in the organization the last time Texas played in the World Series.

JOSH JUNG
He’s pretty much who I imagined offensively. While he was in the minors, I insisted he’d be the perfectly average defender, someone who’d rarely elicit an emotional reaction. He’s been better than that, sometimes shockingly so.

JORDAN MONTGOMERY
How much future money has he earned this month? Even if Thomas Saggese becomes a starting 3B and TK Roby a #3 starter, the Rangers have won their half of the trade, irrespective of where Montgomery lands in 2024. They aren’t here without him. The Rangers are making a strong organizational case for retaining him, but he’d be foolish not to test the market, and the Rangers would be foolish to bid against themselves while on an emotional high. Cliff Lee moved on, but he’s still a hero around these parts. Life goes on. Enjoy Jordan while you can.

MATT BUSH
Bush’s last MLB outing was with the Brewers in June. He’ll get a playoff share and maybe a ring despite not having thrown a pitch in for Texas since 2021.

MOMENTUM!
On a Diamond Pod immediately after Houston’s three-day demolition of the Rangers in early September, I said:

I don’t believe in momentum, and certainly the events of 2023 are a convincing argument against it.

Both Texas and Houston are good but flawed teams that kind of backslid into the postseason. The Rangers were 50-52 over their last 102 games and lurched into a wild-card spot with a collection of stomach-churning winning and losing streaks. Houston seemingly had the division in hand but lost seven of nine games to KC and Oakland before closing with four straight wins to reclaim it on the final day. Then the Rangers swept the 99-win Rays and 101-win Orioles before capturing the pennant against the Astros.

Meanwhile, Arizona began the season 50-36 and closed 34-42, a period during which only the Giants and Rockies lost more in the NL. The Diamondbacks were 10-3 against lowly Colorado and under .500 with a negative-46 run differential against everybody else. Getting into the playoffs depended heavily on the Cubs posting an NL-worst 7-15 record down the stretch. Then, then!, they swept the 92-win Brewers and 100-win Dodgers before capturing a pennant against the Phils.

Nobody knows anything.

Texas is a good if flawed team that got hot at the perfect time. The Dbacks… I don’t know. The totality of their 2023 is pretty much average. But their peaks have been lofty, and they’re unquestionably good enough to win the World Series.

As I’ve gotten older, I no longer have any expectations. The MLB postseason is not designed to crown the best team. Some of that is due to an ever-expanding number of teams permitted to play in October. Mostly though, the nature of baseball prohibits it. Bad teams can and do take two of three or even sweep good teams. Even elite teams lose a third of the time. There is no series of plausible length that can truly decide who’s best.

Much as I love minor league ball, it’s almost never a visceral, edge-of-seat experience. This certainly is: a lifetime of fandom and memories, years of occasional semi-glory and dashed hopes condensed into a handful of games.

It’s a heck of a thing to want something so badly and not only have no control over the desired result but not even be able to calculate its likelihood with any confidence. Why do we do this to ourselves?

Ah, well. I’m in this deep, I’m not getting out now. I don’t even want to. It’s an experience I want to share with family, friends, and y’all. Wouldn’t trade it for anything.

Go Rangers.

Ranger, 2010. Still with us, waiting for a championship.

The minor league season is over, save for instructionals and the Arizona Fall League. Today concludes my daily coverage of the system. I’ll be back occasionally with some wrap-ups, 40-man/Rule 5 coverage, and other news. Thanks to those who donated (see bottom of email if still interested), and thanks to all for reading. Go Rangers.

Box Scores

AAA Pacific Coast League Championship
Round Rock 2, at Oklahoma City (LAD) 5
Round Rock loses best-of-three 0-2
Round Rock: 5 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts

SP Owen White: 4.1 IP, 8 H (2 HR), 5 R, 1 BB, 3 SO
RP Grant Anderson: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO
RP Yerry Rodriguez: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO
1B Blaine Crim: 1-4, HR
RF Sandro Fabian: 2-4

I suggested yesterday that four innings and three runs from Owen White would be acceptable. He worked four innings and allowed only two runs on a single and Jonny Deluca homer to open the second. I was out last evening and happened to check the score just after the 4th ended. Mission (as defined by me) accomplished, yes?

Unfortunately, White was not done, nor were the Dodgers. With one out, Hunter Feduccia doubled, Drew Avans singled, and Michael Busch homered the opposite way on on a 3-2 slider well outside the zone to put the Dodgers up 5-1. Had Busch taken the pitch for ball four, the bases would have been loaded with one out and the score still 2-1. Grant Anderson was warming and perhaps could have escaped the jam or at least mitigated the damage. Or maybe White himself could have allowed fewer than three more runs. Instead, the game was practically out of reach.

Round Rock’s game-defining opportunity at the plate came in the 1st. Elier Hernandez singled, and Wyatt Langford and Justin Foscue walked on a combined nine pitches. Blaine Crim then grounded into a forceout of Hernandez at the plate, and Sandro Fabian and Dustin Harris struck out. After loading the bases, OKC starter Gavin Stone missed six bats the rest of the inning, five on changeups. For the next five innings, Round Rock generated only one baserunner in the form of Blaine Crim jogging after a solo homer.  Two reached in the 7th, and Jax Biggers drove in one on a sac fly, but the Express would never seriously threaten afterwards. Ricky Vanasco retired five batters, and Wander Suero again closed out the 9th.

Round Rock was 4-16 with -59 run differential versus OKC and 85-46 with a +207 differential against everybody else.

Wyatt Langford was 0-5 with three strikeouts and four walks in the series.

Box Scores

AAA Pacific Coast League Championship
Round Rock 3, at Oklahoma City (LAD) 8
Round Rock trails best-of-three 0-1
Round Rock: 4 hits, 7 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 7 walks, 7 strikeouts

SP Robert Dugger: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 SO
RP Edwar Colina: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO
RP Triston Polley: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 SO
RP Scott Engler: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO
LF Wyatt Langford: 0-2, 3 BB, SB
3B Davis Wendzel: 2-4, 2B
RF Sandro Fabian: 2-4

I mentioned OKC’s favorable starting pitching yesterday in the preview, and it was indeed critical to yesterday’s result. In 29 starts, Round Rock’s most reliable starter Robert Dugger had failed to reach three innings only twice. Yesterday became the third. Dugger walked two and allowed four balls in play in excess of 97 MPH, all hits.

As for OKC’s Kyle Hurt, Round Rock had scored five against him in eight innings across two regular-season appearances, but on Tuesday Hurt matched his AAA-best eight strikeouts and limited the Express to a run in four innings. Hurt’s fastball hovered mostly around 96-97, and he added a highly effective changeup and a few curves.

Down 4-0 in the 4th, Davis Wendzel singled and later scored on a Sandro Fabian single. Another run came in the 5th when Wyatt Langford drew the second of his three walks, stole second, and scored on an error.

Round Rock had its best opportunity in the 6th. Wendzel began with a double and scored on another Fabian single following a Jonathan Ornelas walk. With two on and none out, the Express gained nothing more than another Langford walk, leaving the bases full. OKC catcher Hunter Feduccia rapped a solo homer off Kyle Cody in the 6th.

The 7th was a mess. With one on and one out, a hard grounder up the middle deflected off SS Ornelas’s foot (or maybe very hard off his glove) into center, ruled a hit. Then, reliever Antoine Kelly muffed a potential double-play comebacker. He retrieved the ball in time for a possible out at first but airmailed the throw. Instead of a 5-3 score heading into the 8th, OKC led 6-3 with two runners in scoring position and one out. Both runners would score on a subsequent single by leadoff hitter Drew Avans, 4-4 with a walk on the night.

The hits by Wendzel and Fabian that I mentioned were the totality of Round Rock’s batted output. The Express had one baserunner after the 6th. Ex-Ranger Ricky Vanasco threw a scoreless 8th despite throwing outside the zone on nine of 12 pitches.

Tonight, Owen White faces off against Gavin Stone, who has spent most of the last month in the Majors. Stone faced the Express three times during the regular season, twice dealing six scoreless innings in OKC and once allowing a lone run (on a Justin Foscue homer)  in 5.1 innings in Round Rock. I saw the Texas outing and had mixed feelings, as Stone had trouble with location but also induced a ton of whiffs against his changeup. Stone is good but not indomitable.

White faced the Dodgers on the road three times in August and never allowed fewer than five runs. If he can complete four innings with, say, three runs, that’ll be… okay. Fully rested bullpen members are Anderson, Bush, Church, Rodriguez, Slaten, and Speas. The roster also lists Josh Sborz on rehab.

Tonight’s broadcast is free per MiLB.tv, so everyone has a chance to watch. Or you could read a book, go for a walk, take a relaxing bath. It’s up to you.

Late news: IF Davis Wendzel was IL’ed, and IF Jax Biggers is active.

Awards
MiLB announced the AA Texas League award winners. OF Evan Carter is on the All-Star team along with LHP Antoine Kelly. The league MVP is IF Thomas Saggese, who batted .318/.385/.551 with 25 homers and 11 steals between Frisco and Springfield. Saggese was recently promoted to AAA Memphis, where he hit .207/.270/.345 in 13 games.IF Luisangel Acuna was named as a utility player.

Rangers Division Scenarios After Today’s Result
MLB eliminated single-game playoffs in case of regular-season ties, but that doesn’t make the situation any less complicated. More so, if anything, because Houston owns the tiebreak over Texas, Texas owns Seattle, and Seattle owns Houston, plus Seattle owns the three-way tiebreak, and there still a possibility that all three finish with 89 wins.

Houston is eliminated from division contention with a loss today, no matter what Texas does. Houston’s path is complicated by Texas and Seattle playing each other this weekend, meaning Houston can only gain ground on one team on any given day. The best scenario for Texas today is a win plus a Houston loss, which eliminates the Astros and reduces Seattle’s path to a four-game sweep of Texas this weekend. The worst would be a Texas loss and Houston win, which eliminates nobody and leaves a path for the Astros to claim the division without a sweep.

Best as I can tell, there are 512 potential W-L permutations between the three teams, and Texas comes out ahead in 460 (89.8%). Fangraphs gives Texas an 87% chance of winning the division.

Here’s a really confusing chart with all the paths for a non-Texas team to win the division depending on today’s results.

Pacific Coast League Championship Series (best-of-three)
Round Rock Express (89-60) vs.
Dodgers-affiliated Oklahoma City Dodgers (90-58)
Season Run Differential: RR +156, OKC +149
Last 20 Games: RR 10-10, OKC 12-8
Season Series: OKC 14-4

How They Got Here
In early May, 21-11 Round Rock hosted a series against 22-11 Oklahoma City. The Dodgers won all six games, then another four straight, then eight of 12. By the end of May, the Express were 10.5 games back. OKC posted a 50-23 first-half record with the Express a strong but distant 44-30.

The second half belonged to the Express, though with far more drama. Six games out of first after a 2-4 series at OKC, Round Rock proceeded to win 14 straight and stormed to a three-game lead by the last Sunday in August. A 4-8 road trip (including another bad series against OKC) plus three straight losses to rival Las Vegas had the Express down two games with nine to play. Round Rock then closed out with a 7-2 record, 45-30 in the second half, claiming the title on the final day with a victory plus a required Reno loss.

OKC won 14 of 18 games between the two, and not by sneaking away with a bunch of one-run wins. The Dodgers nearly doubled the Express in runs scored. I don’t like to put much emphasis on head-to-head matchups, but in this case, it’s hard not to.

History  
Texas’ AAA team is in the postseason for the first time since 2015. That squad knocked off these same Dodgers in the semifinals but lost a 2-1 series lead and the title to Houston-affiliated Fresno. Texas’ best-regular-season team in 2011 (87-57) had unfortunately lost several keys players by the playoffs and was quickly dispatched in the semis. The last champion dates back to 1996 with the Oklahoma City 89ers. As I discovered this morning, the entire title-winning game vs. Indianapolis is available on Youtube.

In eight years as a Dodgers affiliate, OKC has seven winning seasons (including four with at least 80 wins) and four playoffs appearances but no titles. I think the last title-winning AAA team for the Dodgers was the 1994 Albuquerque Dukes.
 
Top 30 Prospects on Active Roster per MLB.com / Baseball America
Round Rock:
2 / 1. OF Wyatt Langford (#13 overall per MLB, 8 per BA)
5 / 11. RHP Jack Leiter
6 / 5. IF Justin Foscue
8 / 4. RHP Owen White (82nd per BA)
10 / 6. 1/O Dustin Harris
19 / 26. RHP Marc Church
21 / 25. IF Jonathan Ornelas
26 / –. LHP Antoine Kelly
28 / –. RHP Cole Winn
— / 23. RHP Zak Kent

Oklahoma City:
2 / 4. IF Michael Busch (44th overall per MLB, 66 per BA)
4 / 9. RHP Nick Frasso (65th overall per MLB) (on Dev List)
5 / 3. RHP Gavin Stone (78th overall per MLB, 61 per BA)
6 / 6. OF Andy Pages (hurt)
8 / 11. RHP River Ryan
9 / 7. RHP Landon Knack (hurt)
10 / 15. IF Jorbit Vivas
12 / 12. RHP Kyle Hurt
29 / –. C Hunter Feduccia

Offense / Position Players
Round Rock Offense: 4% above average runs scored, .270/.369/.456, 106 OPS+, 106 wRC+
OKC Offense: 2% above average runs scored, .269/.370/.444, 101 OPS+, 100 wRC+
Round Rock:
C Sam Huff / Jordan Procyshen
1B Blaine Crim / Dustin Harris
2B Justin Foscue
3B Davis Wendzel
SS Jonathan Ornelas
LF Wyatt Langford
CF JP Martinez
RF Elier Hernandez
Also 2/3 Dio Arias, OF Sandro Fabian, C Matt Whatley (hurt)

Round Rock’s batting roster might be the most stable I’ve ever covered. Five players (Hernandez, Crim Foscue, Wendzel, Ornelas) reached 500 plate appearances, and another four reached 300. From 2016-2022, the total number of Texas AAA batters with at least 500 plate appearances was five.

The Pacific Coast League is ridiculously hitter-friendly. A park-adjusted league-average line for a Round Rock hitter is .264/.360/.440 compared to .251/.322/.420 for a Ranger. Even so, this is a strong, deep group lacking weaknesses. In Sunday’s must-win game, the #8 and #9 hitters were Dustin Harris (.273/.382/.455, 110 OPS+) and Dio Arias (.286/.361/.422, 96 OPS+). The only regular hitter with an OBP below .360 was Sandro Fabian, and he hit .288/.331/.523 with 23 homers. The only regular seriously lacking in power was Jonathan Ornelas (.253/.368/.359), and even he has solid power when he elevates. JP Martinez had a career year (.298/.418/.543, 38 SB).

Oklahoma City:
C Hunter Feduccia / David Freitas
1B Justin Yurchak
2B Jorbit Vivas
3B Miguel Vargas
SS Bryan Brigman
LF Ryan Ward (also 1B) / Steven Dugger
CF Drew Avans / Jonny Deluca
RF Oscar Mercado
Also 2/3/S Yonny Hernandez, 1/3 Michael Busch, OF David Dahl

The Dodgers have a pretty good offense that doesn’t quite measure up to the Express. Well-regarded Michael Busch has yet to hit much in the Majors, but after being sent back to AAA he closed the season with a nine-game hitting streak and a line of .375/.475/.750. He and Jonny Deluca (.306/.397/.548) are the only .500 sluggers. Miguel Vargas hit .288/.407/.479. The busy Ryan Ward (.234/.324/.424) had 54 extra-base hits. Yonny Hernandez, as usual, gets on base (.395 OBP). Unlike the Express, the Dodgers have some guys who don’t excel at either reaching base or hitting or power.

Pitching / Possible Rotation
Round Rock: 14% better than avg. runs allowed, .253/.347/.404 oppo line, 88 OPS+, 13% BB/HBP, 24% SO
OKC: 15% better than avg. runs allowed, .249/.337/.405, 83 OPS+, 12% BB/HBP, 24% SO

Round Rock:
1. Robert Dugger (4.31 ERA, .262/.335/.407 oppo line, 10% BB/HBP, 23% SO)
2: Owen White (4.99 ERA, .264/.381/.467, 16% BB/HBP, 14% SO)
3: Cole Winn (7.22 ERA, .279/.398/.462, 17% BB/HBP, 20% SO)

The rotation is not a strength. As I mentioned recently, Robert Dugger led the league in ERA among qualifiers (of whom there were few). He’s the best bet to supply five solid innings, but he’s not really a shut-down type. Owen White’s ERA is actually slightly better than league average, but the peripherals are not. Similarly, Cole Winn has been better during the second half of the season, but not good. Assuming a third game, I would expect Winn’s leash to be short. Round Rock has a zillion relief pitchers.

Yerry Rodriguez leads the club with eight saves including five in the last month, but I’m not especially enthused. He’s as good as anyone in AAA when on, but since his last MLB appearance in late July, opponents are hitting .284/.370/.469.

Matt Bush has allowed three runs in 12.2 AAA innings with one walk and 16 strikeouts. Antoine Kelly and Justin Slaten have been worthy late-season additions who could both see a high-leverage situation. Marc Church appears on the prospect lists and has a marvelous slider, but he’s been walk-prone and generally out of form for a while. Extremely erratic Daniel Robert has been great the last month, while Kyle Cody hasn’t been able to build on a nice August. Chase Lee has been on the IL for two weeks. Alex Speas can mow down a side while giving you serious heartburn.

Zak Kent threw 71 pitches Sunday, so even a Game 3 appearance would be on three days rest. Jack Leiter pitched Saturday, and I suppose he could be available in an all-hands-on-deck situation, but there’s a real risk that it wouldn’t go too well. Remember, I’m talking purely about expected performance right now, not the future.

Oklahoma City:
1: Kyle Hurt (3.33 ERA, .198/.284/.333 oppo line, 11% BB/HBP, 39% SO)
2: Gavin Stone (4.74 ERA, .226/.309/.375, 11% BB/HBP, 28% SO)
3: TBA

Hurt has spent most of the season in AA Tulsa, where he posted a so-so 4.15 ERA but struck out 110 in 65 innings. He also had a scoreless two-inning MLB debut two weeks ago. Next is Gavin Stone, who likewise gave up more runs than his peripherals would suggest. My one in-person look at Stone back in May didn’t wow me, to be honest, but on the whole (including Game 3 possibilities), OKC’s rotation appears more promising than Round Rock’s.

In relief, rehabbing Wilton Suero has 17 AAA saves with a 3.26 ERA, .178/.278/.317 oppo line, and a solid but not overwhelming 26% K rate. Also around are Bryan Hudson, a strikeout machine who might also start, a steady John Rooney, ex-Ranger Tyson Miller, and more recent ex-Ranger Ricky Vanasco. Vanasco has 5.1 scoreless innings with six strikeouts in AAA. Like the Express, OKC has numerous options of varying skills and quality.

Defense
Teams tend to run less when losing, and they can’t run without baserunners. OKC somehow allowed the league’s most steals by far (214) despite the league’s best record and fewest baserunners allowed. Primary catcher Hunter Feduccia nabbed only 15% of opposing runners, so the Express have an opportunity. Conversely, Round Rock allowed the fewest steals. OKC committed more errors but was more likely to turn batted balls into outs. Notwithstanding OKC’s bizarre issues with opposing runners, the two teams have the league’s best defenses.

Park Factors
OKC – 0.98 runs, 0.93 HR

OKC’s Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark favors pitchers relative to the league, but don’t you dare call it a pitcher’s park. OKC’s close-to-average offense scored 6.0 runs per game at home, and a very good pitching staff allowed 5.2 per game.

Advantages / Outlook
Offense – Round Rock
Pitching – OKC
Defense – Round Rock, because of the running game

Neither team snuck in. Well, Round Rock did sneak in on the last day, but the Express and OKC are the best teams in the league, and either would be a worthy champion. On paper, it’s very close, even though the Dodgers thoroughly dominated the series. I suppose the advantage goes to OKC because every game will be played in their house.